Abstract Study question Does prevention of endogenous LH surge using progestogens lead to similar live birth rates after the first embryo transfer(ET) when compared to GnRH analogue protocols? Summary answer Prevention of endogenous LH surge using progestogens lead to similar live birth rates after the first ET when compared to GnRH analogue protocols. What is known already Ovarian stimulation with progestogens has emerged as an innovative strategy to inhibit endogenous luteinizing hormone (LH) surge during ovarian stimulation. Progestogens, encompassing both natural progesterone and synthetic progestins, suppress gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) secretion, effectively preventing LH surge. This oral administration offers a less invasive and more cost-efficient alternative to conventional protocols using GnRH analogues. Relevant randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have produced inconsistent results regarding the efficacy of these methods, leading to uncertainty on whether the likelihood of achieving a live birth following the first ET is comparable between the two approaches. Study design, size, duration A systematic literature search, following a predefined protocol, was conducted in MEDLINE, Embase, and CENTRAL until January 2025 to identify eligible RCTs. Two reviewers independently screened results and extracted demographic, methodological, and clinical data. The primary outcome was live birth after the first ET; secondary outcomes included clinical pregnancy, ongoing pregnancy rates and ovarian stimulation outcomes. Study quality was assessed using RoB2 and TRACT tools to evaluate risk of bias and trustworthiness, respectively. Participants/materials, setting, methods Twelve eligible RCTs (published between 2019–2024), including 2677 women undergoing ART, were identified. The intervention group received medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA), dydrogesterone (DYG), or micronized progesterone, while GnRH analogues (agonist or antagonist) were used as a comparator. For dichotomous outcomes, results were expressed as risk ratios (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), using fixed- or random-effects models. For continuous outcomes, pooled differences were calculated as weighted mean differences (WMD) with 95% CIs. Main results and the role of chance No statistically significant differences were present between women undergoing ovarian stimulation with progestogens and those using GnRH analogue protocols regarding ovarian stimulation duration (WMD: -0.02 days, 95% CI -0.49 to + 0.45, I2=75.7%, random-effects model,7 studies, n = 1367), the total gonadotropin dose required (WMD: +44.84 IU, 95% CI -45.59 to + 135.26, I2=57.9%,random-effects model,7 studies, n = 1367),cumulus-oocyte complexes (COCs) retrieved (WMD: +0.38 COCs, 95% CI -0.03 to + 0.79, I2=48%, fixed-effects model, 7 studies, n = 1367) and two-pronuclear (2pn) oocytes (WMD: -0.20 2pn oocytes, 95% CI -2.01 to + 1.60, I2=71.2%,random-effects model, 3 studies, n = 580). In addition, no statistically significant differences were observed following the first ET in live birth (RR: 0.98, 95% CI 0.75–1.28, I2=62.1%,random-effects model, 4 studies, n = 1024), ongoing pregnancy (RR: 0.85, 95% CI 0.52–1.37 I2=84.9%,random-effects model,2 studies, n = 336) clinical pregnancy (RR: 0.93, 95% CI 0.68–1.27, I2= 73.9%, random-effects model,4 studies, n = 752) and miscarriage rates (RR: 0.96, 95% CI 0.56–1.64 , I2=0%, fixed-effects model,4 studies, n = 656). All of the studies were considered trustworthy by applying TRACT checklist. One study was of high risk of bias and was excluded in the sensitivity analysis, which did not materially alter the results observed. Limitations, reasons for caution Moderate clinical heterogeneity was observed across studies comparing progestogen and GnRH analogue protocol regarding the type of progestogen used. Meaningful exploration of this heterogeneity was not possible due to the limited number of studies. Wider implications of the findings Since the prevention of endogenous LH surge using progestogens results in comparable live birth rates after the first ET to those achieved with GnRH analogue protocols, it represents an appealing option for cycles where fresh embryo transfer is not planned. Trial registration number No
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