Sustained Community Transmission Research Articles

Canada's provincial COVID-19 pandemic modelling efforts: A review of mathematical models and their impacts on the responses.

Mathematical modelling played an important role in the public health response to COVID-19 in Canada. Variability in epidemic trajectories, modelling approaches, and data infrastructure across provinces provides a unique opportunity to understand the factors that shaped modelling strategies. Provinces implemented stringent pandemic interventions to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission, considering evidence from epidemic models. This study aimed to summarize provincial COVID-19 modelling efforts. We identified modelling teams working with provincial decision-makers, through referrals and membership in Canadian modelling networks. Information on models, data sources, and knowledge translation were abstracted using standardized instruments. We obtained information from six provinces. For provinces with sustained community transmission, initial modelling efforts focused on projecting epidemic trajectoriesand healthcare demands, and evaluating impacts of proposed interventions. In provinces with low community transmission, models emphasized quantifying importation risks. Most of the models were compartmental and deterministic, with projection horizons of a few weeks. Models were updated regularly or replaced by new ones, adapting to changing local epidemic dynamics, pathogen characteristics, vaccines, and requests from public health. Surveillance datasets for cases, hospitalizations and deaths, and serological studies were the main data sources for model calibration. Access to data for modelling and the structure for knowledge translation differed markedly between provinces. Provincial modelling efforts during the COVID-19 pandemic were tailored to local contexts and modulated by available resources. Strengthening Canadian modelling capacity, developing and sustaining collaborations between modellers and governments, and ensuringearlier access to linked and timely surveillance data could help improve pandemic preparedness.

Mpox knowledge, behaviours and barriers to public health measures among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men in the UK: a qualitative study to inform public health guidance and messaging

BackgroundThe 2022-23 mpox epidemic is the first-time sustained community transmission had been reported in countries without epidemiological links to endemic areas. During that period, the outbreak almost exclusively affected sexual networks of gay, bisexual, or other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) and people living with HIV. In efforts to control transmission, multiple public health measures were implemented, including vaccination, contact tracing and isolation. This study examines knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions of mpox among a sample of GBMSM during the 2022-23 outbreak in the UK, including facilitators for and barriers to the uptake of public health measures.MethodsInterviews were conducted with 44 GBMSM between May and December 2022. Data were analysed using reflexive thematic analysis. Positive and negative comments pertaining to public health measures were collated in a modified version of a ‘table of changes’ to inform optimisations to public health messages and guidance.ResultsMost interviewees were well informed about mpox transmission mechanisms and were either willing to or currently adhering to public health measures, despite low perceptions of mpox severity. Measures that aligned with existing sexual health practices and norms were considered most acceptable. Connections to GBMSM networks and social media channels were found to increase exposure to sexual health information and norms influencing protective behaviours. Those excluded or marginalized from these networks found some measures challenging to perform or adhere to. Although social media was a key mode of information sharing, there were preferences for timely information from official sources to dispel exaggerated or misleading information.ConclusionsThere are differential needs, preferences, and experiences of GBMSM that limit the acceptability of some mitigation and prevention measures. Future public health interventions and campaigns should be co-designed in consultation with key groups and communities to ensure greater acceptability and credibility in different contexts and communities.

Epidemiology and characteristics of identified early mpox cases in Guangdong Province, China: Implications for prevention and control

In June 2023, the 2022 global mpox (monkeypox) outbreak began to affect Guangdong Province, one of the first regions in mainland China to report mpox cases. By July 10, 2023, 93 mpox cases had been reported in Guangdong Province. This study describes the epidemiological characteristics of these patients by collecting and analyzing data on demographics, sexual behavior, medical history, travel history, clinical symptoms, and diagnostic pathways and processes. The 93 mpox cases were all men aged 20-48 years, 95.70 % were men who have sex with men (MSM), and 48.39 % were HIV-positive. A few cases were married (to women) or living with children. The rash was present in almost all cases (98.91 %), with the most common sites being the genital and perianal areas (70.33 %). Intimate sexual contact was suspected to be the main route of infection, with a median incubation period of 8.5 days (IQR 5.0–11.8). The number of cases increased rapidly, and most patients had no history of international travel, suggesting sustained community transmission within the MSM population in Guangdong Province. In addition, 93.55 % of cases were detected by medical institutions, and more than half of these patients had two or more hospital visits before being diagnosed as an mpox case, indicating that clinicians need further training to increase their sensitivity to mpox. Targeted interventions should prioritize MSM while remaining vigilant for transmission to other populations, such as women and children.

Description of the first global outbreak of mpox: an analysis of global surveillance data

In May 2022, several countries with no history of sustained community transmission of mpox (formerly known as monkeypox) notified WHO of new mpox cases. These cases were soon followed by a large-scale outbreak, which unfolded across the world, driven by local, in-country transmission within previously unaffected countries. On July 23, 2022, WHO declared the outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Here, we aim to describe the main epidemiological features of this outbreak, the largest reported to date. In this analysis of global surveillance data we analysed data for all confirmed mpox cases reported by WHO Member States through the global surveillance system from Jan 1, 2022, to Jan 29, 2023. Data included daily aggregated numbers of mpox cases by country and a case reporting form (CRF) containing information on demographics, clinical presentation, epidemiological exposure factors, and laboratory testing. We used the data to (1) describe the key epidemiological and clinical features of cases; (2) analyse risk factors for hospitalisation (by multivariable mixed-effects binary logistic regression); and (3) retrospectively analyse transmission trends. Sequencing data from GISAID and GenBank were used to analyse monkeypox virus (MPXV) genetic diversity. Data from 82 807 cases with submitted CRFs were included in the analysis. Cases were primarily due to clade IIb MPXV (mainly lineage B.1, followed by lineage A.2). The outbreak was driven by transmission among males (73 560 [96·4%] of 76 293 cases) who self-identify as men who have sex with men (25 938 [86·9%] of 29 854 cases). The most common reported route of transmission was sexual contact (14 941 [68·7%] of 21 749). 3927 (7·3%) of 54 117 cases were hospitalised, with increased odds for those aged younger than 5 years (adjusted odds ratio 2·12 [95% CI 1·32-3·40], p=0·0020), aged 65 years and older (1·54 [1·05-2·25], p=0·026), female cases (1·61 [1·35-1·91], p<0·0001), and for cases who are immunosuppressed either due to being HIV positive and immunosuppressed (2·00 [1·68-2·37], p<0·0001), or other immunocompromising conditions (3·47 [1·84-6·54], p=0·0001). Continued global surveillance allowed WHO to monitor the epidemic, identify risk factors, and inform the public health response. The outbreak can be attributed to clade IIb MPXV spread by newly described modes of transmission. WHO Contingency Fund for Emergencies. For the French and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Enhancing global preparedness during an ongoing pandemic from partial and noisy data.

As the coronavirus disease 2019 spread globally, emerging variants such as B.1.1.529 quickly became dominant worldwide. Sustained community transmission favors the proliferation of mutated sub-lineages with pandemic potential, due to cross-national mobility flows, which are responsible for consecutive cases surge worldwide. We show that, in the early stages of an emerging variant, integrating data from national genomic surveillance and global human mobility with large-scale epidemic modeling allows to quantify its pandemic potential, providing quantifiable indicators for pro-active policy interventions. We validate our framework on worldwide spreading variants and gain insights about the pandemic potential of BA.5, BA.2.75, and other sub- and lineages. We combine the different sources of information in a simple estimate of the pandemic delay and show that only in combination, the pandemic potentials of the lineages are correctly assessed relative to each other. Compared to a country-level epidemic intelligence, our scalable integrated approach, that is pandemic intelligence, permits to enhance global preparedness to contrast the pandemic of respiratory pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2.

Residential Clustering of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Cases and Efficiency of Building-Wide Compulsory Testing Notices as a Transmission Control Measure in Hong Kong.

We described the frequency of residential case clusters and the efficiency of compulsory testing in identifying cases using buildings targeted in compulsory testing and locally infected coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases matched by residence in Hong Kong. Most of the buildings (4246 of 7688, 55.2%) with COVID-19 cases identified had only 1 reported case, and 13% of the daily reported cases were detected through compulsory testing. Compulsory testing notices could be essential in attempting to eliminate infections ("zero COVID") and have an impact early in an epidemic, but they appear to be relatively inefficient in response to sustained community transmission.

Sustained COVID-19 community transmission and potential super spreading events at neglected afro-ecuadorian communities assessed by massive RT-qPCR and serological testing of community dwelling population.

BackgroundNeglected ethnic minorities from underserved rural populations in Latin America are highly vulnerable to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) due to poor health infrastructure and limited access to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) diagnosis. Esmeraldas is a mainly rural province of the Coastal Region of Ecuador characterized by a high presence of Afro-Ecuadorian population living under poverty conditions.ObjectiveWe herein present a retrospective analysis of the surveillance SARS-CoV-2 testing in community-dwelling population from Esmeraldas carried out by our university laboratory in collaboration with regional health authorities during the first week of October 2020, in a region where no public SARS-CoV-2 detection laboratory was available at that time.ResultsA total number of 1,259 people were tested for SARS-CoV-2 by Reverse Transcription quantitative Polimerasa Chain Reaction (RT-qPCR), resulting in an overall infection rate of 7.7% (97/1259, 95% CI: [6.32–9.35%]) for SARS-CoV-2, up to 12.1% in some communities. Interestingly, community-dwelling super spreaders with viral loads over 108 copies/ml represented 6.2% of the SARS-CoV-2-infected population. Furthermore, anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG serological tests were applied to the same study group, yielding an overall seroprevalence of 11.68% (95% CI: [9.98–13.62%]) but as high as 24.47% at some communities.ConclusionThese results support active COVID-19 community transmission in Esmeraldas province during the first semester of the COVID-19 pandemic as it has been shown for other rural communities in the Ecuadorian Coastal Region.

Phylogenomic analysis of the monkeypox virus (MPXV) 2022 outbreak: Emergence of a novel viral lineage?

Monkeypox is a zoonotic disease with clinical manifestations similar to smallpox in humans. Since May 13, 2022, an increasing number of suspected and confirmed cases have been reported, affecting non-endemic regions across the globe. More strikingly, reports from the current outbreak reveal unique aspects regarding transmission dynamics and an unprecedented, rapidly expanding and sustained community transmission. As demonstrated through the still-ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, genomic surveillance has been an essential resource for monitoring and tracking the evolution of pathogens of public health relevance. Herein, we performed a phylogenomic analysis of available Monkeypox virus (MPXV) genomes to determine their evolution and diversity. Our analysis revealed that all MPXV genomes grouped into three monophyletic clades: two previously characterized clades and a newly emerging clade harboring genomes from the ongoing 2022 multi-country outbreak with 286 genomes comprising the hMPXV-1A clade and the newly classified lineages: A.1 (n = 6), A.1.1 (n = 1), A.2 (n = 3) and B.1 (n = 262), where lineage B.1 includes all MPXV genomes from the 2022 outbreak. Finally, it was estimated that B.1 lineage of this clade emerged in Europe on 03/02/2022 [95%CI = 11/13/2021 to 05/10/2022]. The exceptional surge of cases and the broader geographical expansion suggest multifactorial factors as drivers of the current outbreak dynamics. Such factors may include the cessation of smallpox vaccination and its potential spread across particular networks. Integrating pertinent epidemiological information with genomic surveillance information will help generate real-time data to help implement adequate preventive and control measures by optimizing public health decisions to mitigate this outbreak.

Percentage of Asymptomatic Infections among SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant-Positive Individuals: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Background: Asymptomatic infections are potential sources of transmission for coronavirus disease 2019, especially during the epidemic of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant. We aimed to assess the percentage of asymptomatic infections among SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant-positive individuals detected by gene sequencing or specific polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Methods: We searched PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science from 26 November 2021 to 13 April 2022. This meta-analysis was conducted following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines and was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42022327894). Three researchers independently extracted data and two researchers assessed quality using pre-specified criteria. The pooled percentage with 95% confidence interval (CI) of asymptomatic infections of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron was estimated using random-effects models. Results: Our meta-analysis included eight eligible studies, covering 7640 Omicron variant-positive individuals with 2190 asymptomatic infections. The pooled percentage of asymptomatic infections was 32.40% (95% CI: 25.30–39.51%) among SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant-positive individuals, which was higher in the population in developing countries (38.93%; 95% CI: 19.75–58.11%), with vaccine coverage ≥ 80% (35.93%; 95% CI: 25.36–46.51%), with a travel history (40.05%; 95% CI: 7.59–72.51%), community infection (37.97%; 95% CI: 10.07–65.87%), and with a median age < 20 years (43.75%; 95% CI: 38.45–49.05%). Conclusion: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, the pooled percentage of asymptomatic infections was 32.40% among SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant-positive individuals. The people who were vaccinated, young (median age < 20 years), had a travel history, and were infected outside of a clinical setting (community infection) had higher percentages of asymptomatic infections. Screening is required to prevent clustered epidemics or sustained community transmission caused by asymptomatic infections of Omicron variants, especially for countries and regions that have successfully controlled SARS-CoV-2.

Genomic and epidemiological report of the recombinant XJ lineage SARS-CoV-2 variant, detected in northern Finland, January 2022.

Recombinant sequences of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant were detected in surveillance samples collected in north-western Finland in January 2022. We detected 191 samples with an identical genome arrangement in weeks 3 to 11, indicating sustained community transmission. The recombinant lineage has a 5’-end of BA.1, a recombination breakpoint between orf1a and orf1b (nucleotide position 13,296–15,240) and a 3’-end of BA.2 including the S gene. We describe the available genomic and epidemiological data about this currently circulating recombinant XJ lineage.

Risk of sustained SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Queensland, Australia

We used an agent-based model Covasim to assess the risk of sustained community transmission of SARSCoV-2/COVID-19 in Queensland (Australia) in the presence of high-transmission variants of the virus. The model was calibrated using the demographics, policies, and interventions implemented in the state. Then, using the calibrated model, we simulated possible epidemic trajectories that could eventuate due to leakage of infected cases with high-transmission variants, during a period without recorded cases of locally acquired infections, known in Australian settings as “zero community transmission”. We also examined how the threat of new variants reduces given a range of vaccination levels. Specifically, the model calibration covered the first-wave period from early March 2020 to May 2020. Predicted epidemic trajectories were simulated from early February 2021 to late March 2021. Our simulations showed that one infected agent with the ancestral (A.2.2) variant has a 14% chance of crossing a threshold of sustained community transmission (SCT) (i.e., > 5 infections per day, more than 3 days in a row), assuming no change in the prevailing preventative and counteracting policies. However, one agent carrying the alpha (B.1.1.7) variant has a 43% chance of crossing the same threshold; a threefold increase with respect to the ancestral strain; while, one agent carrying the delta (B.1.617.2) variant has a 60% chance of the same threshold, a fourfold increase with respect to the ancestral strain. The delta variant is 50% more likely to trigger SCT than the alpha variant. Doubling the average number of daily tests from ∼ 6,000 to 12,000 results in a decrease of this SCT probability from 43 to 33% for the alpha variant. However, if the delta variant is circulating we would need an average of 100,000 daily tests to achieve a similar decrease in SCT risk. Further, achieving a full-vaccination coverage of 70% of the adult population, with a vaccine with 70% effectiveness against infection, would decrease the probability of SCT from a single seed of alpha from 43 to 20%, on par with the ancestral strain in a naive population. In contrast, for the same vaccine coverage and same effectiveness, the probability of SCT from a single seed of delta would decrease from 62 to 48%, a risk slightly above the alpha variant in a naive population. Our results demonstrate that the introduction of even a small number of people infected with high-transmission variants dramatically increases the probability of sustained community transmission in Queensland. Until very high vaccine coverage is achieved, a swift implementation of policies and interventions, together with high quarantine adherence rates, will be required to minimise the probability of sustained community transmission.

The Alpha Variant (B.1.1.7) of SARS-CoV-2 Failed to Become Dominant in Mexico.

ABSTRACTDuring the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the emergence and rapid increase of the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) lineage of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), first identified in the United Kingdom in September 2020, was well documented in different areas of the world and became a global public health concern because of its increased transmissibility. The B.1.1.7 lineage was first detected in Mexico during December 2020, showing a slow progressive increase in its circulation frequency, which reached its maximum in May 2021 but never became predominant. In this work, we analyzed the patterns of diversity and distribution of this lineage in Mexico using phylogenetic and haplotype network analyses. Despite the reported increase in transmissibility of the B.1.1.7 lineage, in most Mexican states, it did not displace cocirculating lineages, such as B.1.1.519, which dominated the country from February to May 2021. Our results show that the states with the highest prevalence of B.1.1.7 were those at the Mexico-U.S. border. An apparent pattern of dispersion of this lineage from the northern states of Mexico toward the center or the southeast was observed in the largest transmission chains, indicating possible independent introduction events from the United States. However, other entry points cannot be excluded, as shown by multiple introduction events. Local transmission led to a few successful haplotypes with a localized distribution and specific mutations indicating sustained community transmission.IMPORTANCE The emergence and rapid increase of the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) lineage of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) throughout the world were due to its increased transmissibility. However, it did not displace cocirculating lineages in most of Mexico, particularly B.1.1.519, which dominated the country from February to May 2021. In this work, we analyzed the distribution of B.1.1.7 in Mexico using phylogenetic and haplotype network analyses. Our results show that the states with the highest prevalence of B.1.1.7 (around 30%) were those at the Mexico-U.S. border, which also exhibited the highest lineage diversity, indicating possible introduction events from the United States. Also, several haplotypes were identified with a localized distribution and specific mutations, indicating that sustained community transmission occurred in the country.

Assessing the impact of SARS-CoV-2 prevention measures in Austrian schools using agent-based simulations and cluster tracing data

We aim to identify those measures that effectively control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Austrian schools. Using cluster tracing data we calibrate an agent-based epidemiological model and consider situations where the B1.617.2 (delta) virus strain is dominant and parts of the population are vaccinated to quantify the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as room ventilation, reduction of class size, wearing of masks during lessons, vaccinations, and school entry testing by SARS-CoV2-antigen tests. In the data we find that 40% of all clusters involved no more than two cases, and 3% of the clusters only had more than 20 cases. The model shows that combinations of NPIs together with vaccinations are necessary to allow for a controlled opening of schools under sustained community transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant. For plausible vaccination rates, primary (secondary) schools require a combination of at least two (three) of the above NPIs.

The vaccination threshold for SARS-CoV-2 depends on the indoor setting and room ventilation

BackgroundEffective vaccines are now available for SARS-CoV-2 in the 2nd year of the COVID-19 pandemic, but there remains significant uncertainty surrounding the necessary vaccination rate to safely lift occupancy controls in public buildings and return to pre-pandemic norms. The aim of this paper is to estimate setting-specific vaccination thresholds for SARS-CoV-2 to prevent sustained community transmission using classical principles of airborne contagion modeling. We calculated the airborne infection risk in three settings, a classroom, prison cell block, and restaurant, at typical ventilation rates, and then the expected number of infections resulting from this risk at varying percentages of occupant immunity.ResultsWe estimate the setting-specific immunity threshold for control of wild-type SARS-CoV-2 to range from a low of 40% for a mechanically ventilation classroom to a high of 85% for a naturally ventilated restaurant.ConclusionsIf vaccination rates are limited to a theoretical minimum of approximately two-thirds of the population, enhanced ventilation above minimum standards for acceptable air quality is needed to reduce the frequency and severity of SARS-CoV-2 superspreading events in high-risk indoor environments.

Prevalence and risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection in children with and without symptoms seeking care in Managua, Nicaragua: results of a cross-sectional survey

ObjectiveThis study aimed to capture key epidemiological data on SARS-CoV-2 infection in Nicaraguan children (≤18 years) seeking medical care, between 6 October and 16 November 2020.DesignIn this cross-sectional study, 418...

Augmenting contact matrices with time-use data for fine-grained intervention modelling of disease dynamics: A modelling analysis.

Social distancing is an important public health intervention to reduce or interrupt the sustained community transmission of emerging infectious pathogens, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. Contact matrices are typically used when evaluating such public health interventions to account for the heterogeneity in social mixing of individuals, but the surveys used to obtain the number of contacts often lack detailed information on the time individuals spend on daily activities. The present work addresses this problem by combining the large-scale empirical data of a social contact survey and a time-use survey to estimate contact matrices by age group (0--15, 16--24, 25-44, 45-64, 65+ years) and daily activity (work, schooling, transportation, and four leisure activities: social visits, bar/cafe/restaurant visits, park visits, and non-essential shopping). This augmentation allows exploring the impact of fewer contacts when individuals reduce the time they spend on selected daily activities as well as when lifting such restrictions again. For illustration, the derived matrices were then applied to an age-structured dynamic-transmission model of coronavirus disease 2019. Findings show how contact matrices can be successfully augmented with time-use data to inform the relative reductions in contacts by activity, which allows for more fine-grained mixing patterns and infectious disease modelling.

Retrospective testing of respiratory specimens for COVID-19 to assess for earlier SARS-CoV-2 infections in Alberta, Canada.

The first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Alberta, Canada, was confirmed on March 5, 2020. Because the virus testing criteria had changed significantly over this time period, we wanted to ascertain whether previous cases of COVID-19 had been missed in the province. Our aim was to retrospectively evaluate specimens submitted for respiratory virus testing from December 1, 2019, through March 7, 2020, for undetected severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections before the first confirmed case. Testing of 23,517 samples (representing 23,394 patients) identified 1 patient positive for SARS-CoV-2. This specimen was collected on February 24, 2020, from a patient with symptoms consistent with COVID-19 who had recently returned from the western United States. Phylogenetic analysis confirmed this viral isolate belonged to lineage B.1. The epidemiology of this case is consistent with those of other early cases before sustained community transmission, which included a travel history outside of Canada. This exercise provides support that local public health pandemic planning was satisfactory and timely.

Protective impacts of household-based tuberculosis contact tracing are robust across endemic incidence levels and community contact patterns.

There is an emerging consensus that achieving global tuberculosis control targets will require more proactive case finding approaches than are currently used in high-incidence settings. Household contact tracing (HHCT), for which households of newly diagnosed cases are actively screened for additional infected individuals is a potentially efficient approach to finding new cases of tuberculosis, however randomized trials assessing the population-level effects of such interventions in settings with sustained community transmission have shown mixed results. One potential explanation for this is that household transmission is responsible for a variable proportion of population-level tuberculosis burden between settings. For example, transmission is more likely to occur in households in settings with a lower tuberculosis burden and where individuals mix preferentially in local areas, compared with settings with higher disease burden and more dispersed mixing. To better understand the relationship between endemic incidence levels, social mixing, and the impact of HHCT, we developed a spatially explicit model of coupled household and community transmission. We found that the impact of HHCT was robust across settings of varied incidence and community contact patterns. In contrast, we found that the effects of community contact tracing interventions were sensitive to community contact patterns. Our results suggest that the protective benefits of HHCT are robust and the benefits of this intervention are likely to be maintained across epidemiological settings.

Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 reveals multiple lineages and early spread of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Lombardy, Italy

From February to April 2020, Lombardy (Italy) reported the highest numbers of SARS-CoV-2 cases worldwide. By analyzing 346 whole SARS-CoV-2 genomes, we demonstrate the presence of seven viral lineages in Lombardy, frequently sustained by local transmission chains and at least two likely to have originated in Italy. Six single nucleotide polymorphisms (five of them non-synonymous) characterized the SARS-CoV-2 sequences, none of them affecting N-glycosylation sites. The seven lineages, and the presence of local transmission clusters within three of them, revealed that sustained community transmission was underway before the first COVID-19 case had been detected in Lombardy.

Phylogenetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 in Boston highlights the impact of superspreading events.

Analysis of 772 complete SARS-CoV-2 genomes from early in the Boston area epidemic revealed numerous introductions of the virus, a small number of which led to most cases. The data revealed two superspreading events. One, in a skilled nursing facility, led to rapid transmission and significant mortality in this vulnerable population but little broader spread, while other introductions into the facility had little effect. The second, at an international business conference, produced sustained community transmission and was exported, resulting in extensive regional, national, and international spread. The two events also differed significantly in the genetic variation they generated, suggesting varying transmission dynamics in superspreading events. Our results show how genomic epidemiology can help understand the link between individual clusters and wider community spread.