Surface Heat Flux Anomalies Research Articles

Observational Analysis of Extratropical Cyclone Interactions with Northeast Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

AbstractThis study examines the interaction between a northeast Pacific upper-ocean thermal anomaly and individual fall storm events between 2013 and 2016. In 2013, a large upper-ocean thermal anomaly formed in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) with sea surface temperatures (SST) warmer than 4°C above the climatological norm. Formation of the anomaly was associated with a persistent atmospheric ridge in the GOA that produced a lull in storm activity in the boreal winter of 2013/14. While reduced storm activity was the apparent cause of this SST anomaly, we present cases where extratropical cyclones significantly eroded its mixed layer heat content on synoptic time scales. Case studies during the 4-yr period 2013–16 using satellite and Argo hydrographic observations show that early fall storms produced the largest surface heat fluxes and the greatest cooling of SST. The magnitude of thermal energy transfer from the ocean to the atmosphere during individual storm events was then determined using vertically integrated heat budgets based on Argo temperature profiles and reanalysis surface heat fluxes. Storm-induced surface heat flux anomalies accounted for approximately 50% of the warm anomaly cooling observed by Argo profiles. This rapid heat loss occurred over time scales of approximately 3–5 days. The decay of the warm SST anomaly (SSTa) occurred much more quickly than expected from classic thermal damping by SST-induced turbulent heat fluxes, which may be attributed here at least partly to much shallower mixed layers during early fall. Analysis of the individual surface flux terms indicated that the latent heat flux was the dominant contributor to storm-induced heat exchange across the air–sea interface.

Role of Reemergence in the Central North Pacific Revealed by a Mixed Layer Heat Budget Analysis

AbstractWintertime sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that disappear in summer and recur in the following winter are known as “reemergence.” The role of reemergence in recurrent SST anomalies in an area in the central North Pacific is investigated quantitatively for the first time by conducting an online mixed layer heat budget analysis with a realistic ocean model simulation. In contrast to past studies that have emphasized the importance of vertical entrainment of subsurface temperature anomalies, it is shown that several mechanisms are operating in recurrence of SST anomalies during 1977–1999. In particular, anomalous Ekman meridional advection of the mean meridional temperature gradient induced by zonal wind stress anomalies plays an important role in many years. Also, coincidence in the sign of SST anomalies in winter and surface heat flux anomalies in the following autumn leads to recurrence of SST anomalies.

Contributions of Indonesian Throughflow to eastern Indian Ocean surface variability during ENSO events

AbstractThe contribution of ocean transport to the transition between the Indian Ocean Dipole mode (IOD) and the Indian Ocean Basin mode (IOB) during El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years is investigated using reanalysis products. Composite analysis suggests that the IOD–IOB transition is robust among ENSO years, with variations in the eastern Indian Ocean mixed layer playing a key role. Although this transition has typically been attributed to changes in surface heat flux in the eastern Indian Ocean, our results suggest that approximately one third of the mixed layer temperature tendency during the transition results from anomalous ocean heat transport. Enhanced surface heat flux anomalies and oceanic advection starting from October during El Niño developing years combine to warm the eastern Indian Ocean, promoting the decay of the positive IOD cold tongue and the emergence of a positive IOB pattern. The contribution of ocean advection to the IOD—IOB transition is dominated by the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF), which accounts for around 70–80% of total ocean advection contribution in the southeastern Indian Ocean (20–25% of the total warming tendency). These variations in ITF heat transport arise in large part from local wind anomalies. Southeasterly wind anomalies along the northeastern edge of an anomalous Indian Ocean anticyclone associated with El Niño intensify surface‐layer heat transport into the Indian Ocean in the ITF outflow region. This change in surface transport contrasts with total ITF transport anomalies during El Niño years, as total transport is dominated by negative subsurface transport anomalies.

On the Emergence of the Atlantic Multidecadal SST Signal: A Key Role of the Mixed Layer Depth Variability Driven by North Atlantic Oscillation

AbstractDespite its wide-ranging potential impacts, the exact cause of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation/variability (AMO/AMV) is far from settled. While the emergence of the AMO sea surface temperature (SST) pattern has been conventionally attributed to the ocean heat transport, a recent study showed that the atmospheric stochastic forcing is sufficient. In this study, we resolve this conundrum by partitioning the multidecadal SST tendency into a part caused by surface heat fluxes and another by ocean dynamics, using a preindustrial control simulation of a state-of-the-art coupled climate model. In the model, horizontal ocean heat advection primarily acts to warm the subpolar SST as in previous studies; however, when the vertical component is also considered, the ocean dynamics overall acts to cool the region. Alternatively, the heat flux term is primarily responsible for the subpolar North Atlantic SST warming, although the associated surface heat flux anomalies are upward as observed. Further decomposition of the heat flux term reveals that it is the mixed layer depth (MLD) deepening that makes the ocean less susceptible for cooling, thus leading to relative warming by increasing the ocean heat capacity. This role of the MLD variability in the AMO signature had not been addressed in previous studies. The MLD variability is primarily induced by the anomalous salinity transport by the Gulf Stream modulated by the multidecadal North Atlantic Oscillation, with turbulent fluxes playing a secondary role. Thus, depending on how we interpret the MLD variability, our results support the two previously suggested frameworks, yet slightly modifying the previous notions.

Extratropical-cyclone-induced sea surface temperature anomalies in the 2013–2014 winter

Abstract. The 2013–2014 winter averaged sea surface temperature (SST) was anomalously cool in the mid-North Atlantic region. This season was also unusually stormy, with extratropical cyclones passing over the mid-North Atlantic every 3 d. However, the processes by which cyclones contribute towards seasonal SST anomalies are not fully quantified. In this paper a cyclone identification and tracking method is combined with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmosphere and ocean reanalysis fields to calculate cyclone-relative net surface heat flux anomalies and resulting SST changes. Anomalously large negative heat flux is located behind the cyclones' cold front, resulting in anomalous cooling up to 0.2 K d−1 when the cyclones are at maximum intensity. This extratropical-cyclone-induced “cold wake” extends along the cyclones' cold front but is small compared to climatological variability in the SSTs. To investigate the potential cumulative effect of the passage of multiple cyclone-induced SST cooling in the same location, we calculate Earth-relative net surface heat flux anomalies and resulting SST changes for the 2013–2014 winter period. Anomalously large winter averaged negative heat flux occurs in a zonally orientated band extending across the North Atlantic between 40 and 60∘ N. The 2013–2014 winter SST cooling anomaly associated with air–sea interactions (ASIs; anomalous heat flux, mixed layer depth and entrainment at the base of the ocean mixed layer) is estimated to be −0.67 K in the mid-North Atlantic (68 % of the total cooling anomaly). The role of cyclones is estimated using a cyclone-masking technique which encompasses each cyclone centre and its cold wake. The environmental flow anomaly in 2013–2014 sets the overall tripole pattern of heat flux anomalies over the North Atlantic. However, the presence of cyclones doubles the magnitude of the negative heat flux anomaly in the mid-North Atlantic. Similarly, the environmental flow anomaly determines the location of the SST cooling anomaly, but the presence of cyclones enhances the SST cooling anomaly. Thus air–sea interactions play a major part in determining the extreme 2013–2014 winter season SST cooling anomaly. The environmental flow anomaly determines where anomalous heat flux and associated SST changes occur, and the presence of cyclones influences the magnitude of those anomalies.

Surface Heat Flux Induced by Mesoscale Eddies Cools the Kuroshio‐Oyashio Extension Region

AbstractSea surface temperature (SST) is a key player in the air‐sea interaction, influencing storm tracks, atmospheric circulation, and climate modes. Although prevailing theories attribute variations of large‐scale SST to atmosphere forcing and ocean internal dynamics, we find that sea surface heat flux anomalies induced by mesoscale eddies exert significant influences on the upper‐ocean heat budget in the Kuroshio‐Oyashio extension region. Despite making nearly no contribution to the net heat exchange at the air‐sea interface, the eddy‐induced heat flux anomalies weaken the thermal stratification in the upper ocean and result in pronounced sea surface cooling. The underlying dynamics is the efficient dissipation of eddy potential energy by eddy‐induced heat flux anomalies. This makes the conversion of eddy potential energy to eddy kinetic energy significantly reduced, corresponding to a weaker eddy‐induced restratification flux. The finding complements the existing theories on large‐scale SST dynamics and has important implications for understanding extratropical climate variability.

Seasonal linkage of the Southern Hemisphere extratropical climate variability to two types of ENSO

This study uses the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) to investigate the responses of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical climate to two types of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—the eastern Pacific (EP) type and the central Pacific (CP) type in different seasons. The responses are denoted by the anomalies of climate variables associated with one-standard-deviation increase in the Nino3 or Nino4 index. The results show that in austral spring the differences in the ENSO-related anomaly (ERA) patterns of atmospheric circulation between the EP ENSO period (1979–1998) and CP ENSO period (1999–2010) are mainly associated with the change in the ENSO-PSA2 relationship. Such differences affect the ERA fields of surface air temperature and mixed layer temperature, and finally result in significant differences in sea-ice concentration anomalies in the Atlantic sector. In austral summer, significant correlation exists between the variations of SAM and both of the variations of Nino3 and Nino4 in 1979–1998, while the correlation between SAM and Nino4 disappears in 1999–2010. For all seasons, the strength of the climate ERAs depend on if there are close relationship between ENSO and the major climate variation modes of the SH extratropics. For the climate variables, the ERA patterns of surface air temperature are generally controlled by surface wind anomalies and mirrored by the mixed layer temperature anomalies. The mixed layer depth anomalies are primarily modulated by surface heat flux anomalies and occasionally by anomalous wind. There are strikingly strong anomalies of surface heat flux in the autumn of 1979–1998 related to the Nino3 variation, the period when there is only significant correlation between ENSO and PSA2. There are no evidence that the SH extratropical climate variability induced by Nino3 variations are stronger in the EP-ENSO period, and that variability induced by Nino4 variations are stronger in the CP-ENSO period.

Impact of Multidecadal Variability in Atlantic SST on Winter Atmospheric Blocking

AbstractRecent studies have suggested that coherent multidecadal variability exists between North Atlantic atmospheric blocking frequency and the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV). However, the role of AMV in modulating blocking variability on multidecadal times scales is not fully understood. This study examines this issue primarily using the NOAA Twentieth Century Reanalysis for 1901–2010. The second mode of the empirical orthogonal function for winter (December–March) atmospheric blocking variability in the North Atlantic exhibits oppositely signed anomalies of blocking frequency over Greenland and the Azores. Furthermore, its principal component time series shows a dominant multidecadal variability lagging AMV by several years. Composite analyses show that this lag is due to the slow evolution of the AMV sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, which is likely driven by the ocean circulation. Following the warm phase of AMV, the warm SST anomalies emerge in the western subpolar gyre over 3–7 years. The ocean–atmosphere interaction over these 3–7-yr periods is characterized by the damping of the warm SST anomalies by the surface heat flux anomalies, which in turn reduce the overall meridional gradient of the air temperature and thus weaken the meridional transient eddy heat flux in the lower troposphere. The anomalous transient eddy forcing then shifts the eddy-driven jet equatorward, resulting in enhanced Rossby wave breaking and blocking on the northern flank of the jet over Greenland. The opposite is true with the AMV cold phases but with much shorter lags, as the evolution of SST anomalies differs in the warm and cold phases.

Atmospheric Mixed Layer Convergence from Observed MJO Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

ABSTRACTThe Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) dominates tropical weather on intraseasonal 30–90-day time scales, yet mechanisms for its generation, maintenance, and propagation remain unclear. Although surface moist static energy (MSE) flux is greatest under strong winds in the convective phase, sea surface temperature (SST) warms by ~0.3°C in the clear nonconvective phase of the MJO. Winds converging into the hydrostatic low pressure under warm air over the warm SST increase the vertically integrated MSE. We estimate column-integrated MSE convergence using a model of mixed layer (ML) winds balancing friction, planetary rotation, and hydrostatic pressure gradients. Small (0.3 K) SST anomalies associated with the MJO drive 7 W m−2net column MSE convergence averaged over the equatorial Indian Ocean ahead of MJO deep convection. The MSE convergence is in the right phase to contribute to MJO generation and propagation. It is on the order of the total MSE tendency previously assessed from reanalysis, and greater than surface heat flux anomalies driven by intraseasonal SST fluctuations.

Signals of Spring Thermal Contrast Related to the Interannual Variations in the Onset of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon

AbstractLand–sea thermal contrast is one of the key factors modulating the onset and strength of summer monsoons. This study investigates the precursory thermal-contrast signal of the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) and reveals that the land–sea thermal contrastDT(ToceanminusTlandat the surface) in March tracks the date of the monsoon onset very well. In an energy-balance framework, the monthly anomalies in this thermal contrast are decomposed into different components associated with the anomalies of various radiative and nonradiative dynamical processes over the South China Sea in early spring. It is found that the interannual variations ofDT, and thus the onset date of monsoon, are mainly tied to the anomalies in surface heat fluxes, ocean–land heat storage rate, and oceanic dynamical processes. The variation of ocean–land heat storage rate and ocean dynamics is the largest positive contributor to the change inDT. Specifically, an early SCSSM onset tends to be associated with an amplified “cold-land, warm-ocean” pattern that can be further attributed to increased soil moisture content in March, which enhances land surface cooling and weakens oceanic heat storage rate that benefits ocean surface warming. Furthermore, the variations ofDTand soil moisture content in March are positively related with the late-February precipitation over the Indochina Peninsula, which could therefore be regarded as a precursory signal for both the land–sea thermal contrast in March and the onset of the SCSSM.

Forecasts of MJO Events during DYNAMO with a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model: Sensitivity to Cumulus Parameterization Scheme

An operational weather forecast model, coupled to an oceanic model, was used to predict the initiation and propagation of two major Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events during the dynamics of the MJO (DYNAMO) campaign period. Two convective parameterization schemes were used to understand the sensitivity of the forecast to the model cumulus scheme. The first is the Tiedtke (TDK) scheme, and the second is the Simplified Arakawa-Schubert (SAS) scheme. The TDK scheme was able to forecast the MJO-1 and MJO-2 initiation at 15- and 45-day lead, respectively, while the SAS scheme failed to predict the convection onset in the western equatorial Indian Ocean (WEIO). The diagnosis of the forecast results indicates that the successful prediction with the TDK scheme is attributed to the model capability to reproduce the observed intraseasonal outgoing longwave radiation-sea surface temperature (OLR-SST) relationship. On one hand, the SST anomaly (SSTA) over the WEIO was induced by surface heat flux anomalies associated with the preceding suppressed-phase MJO. The change of SSTA, in turn, caused boundary layer convergence and ascending motion, which further induced a positive column-integrated moist static energy (MSE) tendency, setting up a convectively unstable stratification for MJO initiation. The forecast with the SAS scheme failed to reproduce the observed OLR-SST-MSE relation. The propagation characteristics differed markedly between the two forecasts. Pronounced eastward phase propagation in the TDK scheme is attributed to a positive zonal gradient of the MSE tendency relative to the MJO center, similar to the observed, whereas a reversed gradient appeared in the forecast with the SAS scheme with dominant westward propagation. The difference is primarily attributed to anomalous vertical and horizontal MSE advection.

Impacts of Summer North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies on the East Asian Winter Monsoon Variability

Abstract The present study investigates the impacts of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) variability. It is found that the northern component of the EAWM variability is associated with a dipole pattern of preceding summer North Atlantic SST anomalies during 1979–2016. The processes linking preceding summer North Atlantic SST to EAWM include the North Atlantic air–sea interactions and atmospheric wave train triggered by the North Atlantic SST anomalies. Atmospheric wind anomalies in the preceding spring–summer result in the formation of a dipole SST anomaly pattern through surface heat flux changes. In turn, the induced SST anomalies provide a feedback on the atmosphere, modifying the location and intensity of anomalous winds over the North Atlantic. The associated surface heat flux anomalies switch the North Atlantic SST anomaly distribution from a dipole pattern in summer to a tripole pattern in the following winter. The North Atlantic tripole SST anomalies excite an atmospheric wave train extending from the North Atlantic through Eurasia to East Asia in winter, resulting in anomalous EAWM. However, the relationship of the northern component of EAWM to preceding summer North Atlantic SST anomalies is weak before the late 1970s. During 1956–76, due to weak air–sea interaction over the North Atlantic, no obvious tripole SST anomaly pattern is established in winter. The atmospheric wave train in winter is located at higher latitudes, leading to a weak connection between the northern component of EAWM and the preceding summer North Atlantic dipole SST anomaly pattern.

Essential Ingredients to the Dynamics of Westerly Wind Bursts

AbstractWesterly wind bursts (WWBs) are brief, anomalously westerly winds in the tropical Pacific that play a role in the dynamics of ENSO through their forcing of ocean Kelvin waves. They have been associated with atmospheric phenomena such as tropical cyclones, the MJO, and convectively coupled Rossby waves, yet their basic mechanism is not yet well understood. We study WWBs using an aquaplanet general circulation model, and find that eastward-propagating convective heating plays a key role in the generation of model WWBs, consistent with previous studies. Furthermore, wind-induced surface heat exchange (WISHE) acts on a short time scale of about two days to dramatically amplify the model WWB winds near the peak of the event. On the other hand, it is found that radiation feedbacks (i.e., changes in the net radiative anomalies accompanying westerly wind bursts) are not essential for the development of WWBs, and act as a weak negative feedback on WWBs and their associated convection. Similarly, sensible surface heat flux anomalies are not found to have an effect on the development of model WWBs.

Role of Stochastic Atmospheric Forcing from the South and North Pacific in Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability

Abstract Stochastic variability of internal atmospheric modes, known as teleconnection patterns, drives large-scale patterns of low-frequency SST variability in the extratropics. To investigate how the decadal component of this stochastically driven variability in the South and North Pacific affects the tropical Pacific and contributes to the observed basinwide pattern of decadal variability, a suite of climate model experiments was conducted. In these experiments, the models are forced with constant surface heat flux anomalies associated with the decadal component of the dominant atmospheric modes, particularly the Pacific–South American (PSA) and North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) patterns. Both the PSA and NPO modes induce basinwide SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific and beyond that resemble the observed interdecadal Pacific oscillation. The subtropical SST anomalies forced by the PSA and NPO modes propagate to the equatorial Pacific mainly through the wind–evaporation–SST feedback. This atmospheric bridge is stronger from the South Pacific than the North Pacific due to the northward displacement of the intertropical convergence zone and the associated northward advection of momentum anomalies. The equatorial ocean dynamics is also more strongly influenced by atmospheric circulation changes induced by the PSA mode than the NPO mode. In the PSA experiment, persistent and zonally coherent wind stress curl anomalies over the South Pacific affect the zonal mean depth of the equatorial thermocline and weaken the equatorial SST anomalies resulting from the atmospheric bridge. This oceanic adjustment serves as a delayed negative feedback and may be important for setting the time scales of tropical Pacific decadal variability.

Formation of Snow Cover Anomalies Over the Tibetan Plateau in Cold Seasons

AbstractThe present study investigates relationship between interannual variations of snow cover and local surface and atmospheric variables, and the formation of interannual snow cover anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau in the cold seasons (autumn, winter, and spring). It is shown that the snow‐related surface heat flux and atmospheric heat source anomalies increase from autumn to spring, whereas precipitation anomalies are most prominent in autumn. This suggests that snow cover anomalies over the central eastern Tibetan Plateau are mainly formed in autumn and their impacts are most prominent in spring. The central eastern Tibetan Plateau snow cover anomalies have high month‐to‐month persistence during October through April, indicative of a large contribution of persistence to snow cover anomalies in winter and spring. The Tibetan Plateau snow cover anomalies in cold seasons are influenced by large‐scale atmospheric circulation anomaly pattern of different paths. In autumn, a wave pattern from the North Pacific to the Tibetan Plateau via the North Atlantic, induced by eastern North Pacific and western North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies, plays an important role in the formation of snow cover anomalies. In winter, a North Atlantic Oscillation related wave pattern from the North Atlantic to East Asia may contribute to snow cover anomalies. In spring, a midlatitude wave pattern originating over the western North Atlantic and propagating through the Mediterranean Sea to southern Tibetan Plateau may have a supplementary contribution to snow cover anomalies.

Coupled North Atlantic Subdecadal Variability in CMIP5 Models

AbstractThe interaction between the atmosphere, specifically the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the North Atlantic Ocean circulation on subdecadal time scale is analyzed in a subset of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. From preindustrial control runs of at least 500‐year length, we derive anomaly patterns in the atmospheric and ocean circulation and of air‐sea heat exchange. All models simulate a distinct dipolar oceanic overturning anomaly at the subdecadal time scale, with centers at 30°N and 55°N. The dipolar overturning anomaly goes along with marked anomalies in the North Atlantic sea surface temperature and gyre circulation. Lag‐regression analyses demonstrate, with relatively small ensemble spread, how the atmosphere and the ocean circulation interact. The dipolar anomalies in the overturning are forced by North Atlantic Oscillation‐related wind stress curl anomalies. Anomalous surface heat fluxes in concert with anomalous vertical motions drive a meridional dipolar heat content anomaly in the upper ocean, and it is this dipolar heat content anomaly which carries the coupled system from one phase of the subdecadal cycle to the other by reversing the tendencies in the overturning circulation. The coupled subdecadal variability derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models is characterized by three elements: a wind‐driven part steering the dipolar overturning anomaly, surface heat flux anomalies that support a heat buildup in the subpolar gyre region, and the heat storage memory which is instrumental in the phase reversal of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of the Dominant Modes of Surface Air Temperature Interannual Variations over South China during the Spring-to-Summer Transition

The surface air temperature (SAT) interannual variability during the spring-to-summer transition over South China (SC) has been decomposed into two dominant modes by applying empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The first EOF mode (EOF1) is characterized by homogenous SAT anomalies over SC, whereas the second EOF mode (EOF2) features a dipole SAT anomaly pattern with opposite anomalies south and north of the Yangtze River. A regression analysis of surface heat flux and advection anomalies on the normalized principle component time series corresponding to EOF1 suggests that surface heat flux anomalies can explain SAT anomalies mainly by modulating cloud-shortwave radiation. Negative cloud anomalies result in positive downward shortwave radiation anomalies through the positive shortwave cloud radiation effect, which favor warm SAT anomalies over most of SC. For EOF2, the distribution of advection anomalies resembles the north–south dipole pattern of SAT anomalies. This suggests that wind-induced advection plays an important role in the SAT anomalies of EOF2. Negative SAT anomalies are favored by cold advection from northerly wind anomalies over land surfaces in high-latitude regions. Positive SAT anomalies are induced by warm advection from southerly wind anomalies over the ocean in low-latitude regions.

Symmetry of Energy Divergence Anomalies Associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant source of global climate variability. The effects of this phenomenon alter the flow of heat from tropical to polar latitudes, resulting in weather and climate anomalies that are difficult to forecast. The current work quantified two components of the vertically integrated equation for the total energy content of an atmospheric column, to show the anomalous horizontal redistribution of surface heat flux anomalies. Symmetric and asymmetric components of the vertically integrated latent and sensible heat flux divergence were quantified using ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis output on 30 model layers between 1979 and 2016. Results indicate that asymmetry is a fundamental component of ENSO-induced weather and climate anomalies at the global scale, challenging the common assumption that each phase of ENSO is equal and opposite. In particular, a substantial asymmetric component was identified in the relationship between ENSO and patterns of extratropical climate variability that may be proportional to differences in sea surface temperature anomalies during each phase of ENSO. This work advances our understanding of the global distributions of source and sink regions, which may improve future predictions of ENSO-induced precipitation and surface temperature anomalies. Future studies should apply these methods to advance understanding and to validate predictions of ENSO-induced weather and climate anomalies.

The Role of Individual Surface Flux Components in the Passive and Active Ocean Heat Uptake

AbstractSurface flux perturbations (heat, freshwater, and wind) due to an increase of atmospheric CO2 cause significant intermodel spread in ocean heat uptake; however, the mechanism underlying their impact is not very well understood. Here, we use ocean model experiments to isolate the impact of each perturbation on the ocean heat uptake components, focusing on surface heat flux anomalies caused directly by atmospheric CO2 increase (passive) and indirectly by ocean circulation change (active). Surface heat flux perturbations cause the passive heat uptake, while all the surface flux perturbations influence ocean heat uptake through the active component. While model results have implied that the active component increases ocean heat uptake because of the weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), we find that it depends more on the shallow circulation change patterns. Surface heat flux perturbation causes most of the AMOC weakening, yet it causes a net global active heat loss (12% of the total uptake), which occurs because the active heat loss in the tropical Pacific through the subtropical cell weakening is greater than the active heat gain in the subpolar Atlantic through AMOC weakening. Freshwater perturbation weakens the AMOC a little more, but increases the subpolar Atlantic heat uptake a great deal through a large weakening of the subpolar gyre, thereby causing a large global active heat gain (34% of the total uptake). Wind perturbation also causes an active heat loss largely through the poleward shift of the Southern Hemisphere subtropical cells.

On the variety of coastal El Niño events

We examine the connection between interannual anomalies of sea surface temperature (SST) in the central and far-eastern equatorial Pacific associated with basin-scale and coastal El Ninos. Variations of the SST anomalies in these two regions are largely coherent, meaning coastal El Ninos mostly occur together with the commonly studied basin-scale El Ninos. Of particular interest for this study though is the understanding of the coastal El Ninos that are not accompanied by basin-scale El Ninos or that follow basin-scale El Ninos. Such coastal El Ninos can have catastrophic societal consequences in western South America. We identify seven coastal El Ninos during 1979–2017, namely 1983, 1987, 1998, 2008, 2014, 2015, and 2017. These coastal El Ninos are driven by different mechanisms. The coastal El Ninos in 1983, 1987 and 1998 occurred after basin-scale El Ninos. A unique feature of such extreme basin-scale El Ninos like in 1982–1983, 1986–1987, and 1997–1998 is an equatorially centered intertropical convergence zone during its decaying phase. As a result, positive SST anomalies persist, and sometimes even strengthen, in the eastern Pacific in the subsequent boreal spring/early-summer, leading to coastal El Ninos. The coastal El Ninos in 2014 and 2015 on the other hand resulted from westerly wind bursts in the western Pacific that forced downwelling Kelvin waves and a thermocline depression in the far eastern Pacific. The formation of coastal El Ninos in 2008 and 2017 were associated with westerly surface wind anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific and largely driven by ocean surface heat flux anomalies. These two coastal El Ninos occur during the warm phase of the seasonal cycle, so that warm SSTs are amplified and/or the warm season is extended along the west coast of South America. Thus, there is a wide variety of the coastal El Ninos in terms of evolution, mechanism, and timing.