Supply Volatility Research Articles

Optimal allocation of offshore wind power and energy storage considering source-load power stochasticity

Abstract Large-scale offshore wind generation has been integrated to power grids in China. The annual increase in electric vehicles, air conditioning systems, and other electrical facilities has intensified the randomness and volatility of power supply and demand, presenting significant challenges to the safe and economical operation of power systems. Energy storage systems serve as regulators in the power grid, yet the electrical performance and costs associated with various storage technologies differ considerably. Consequently, the strategic planning and development of energy storage solutions tailored to specific local conditions have emerged as critical areas of research. This paper presents an in-depth analysis of power characteristics across source loads, explores an optimized configuration approach for energy storage, and validates this method through a numerical example. The findings confirm the effectiveness of the proposed configuration strategy and offer pertinent recommendations for the implementation of energy storage solutions.

Agricultural Commodity Markets in Pakistan: Analysis of Issues

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Agriculture markets in Pakistan are still primarily based on a colonial-era model and have not modernised with changing times. This has increased unnecessary costs in the supply chains that put growers and end-consumers at a disadvantage. Additionally, price and supply volatility causes insecurity for policy-makers as information about prices, supply and demand is not structured, timely or reliable. For decades, agricultural markets have functioned without government focus on innovation. Recent initiatives from various federal and provincial agencies provide hope that this vital area can now finally be addressed. Numerous constraints need to be resolved to bring meaningful change to the ecosystem. The process must start with a fresh policy look and commitment to adopt modern themes. This policy process can be supported by technology and successful lessons from other countries as well as developments in other sectors within the country. There is a need to develop a certain level of coordination between various federal and provincial agencies. The increasingly fragmented nature of agriculture markets might be useful for some stakeholders as they can innovate according to their needs but it leaves most of the sector at a continually suboptimal level. The lack of progress in modernising core markets has also made it difficult for some innovative solutions to succeed. A rapid assessment of the current environment, key constraints and recommendations for possible development areas is presented in this report.

Bank ownership, credit supply volatility, and macroeconomic volatility

We examine the real effects of credit supply volatility in emerging economies. In countries with highly effective governments, government-owned banks play a significant role in reducing the effect of credit supply volatility on macroeconomic volatility. Conversely, foreign banks do not significantly change this effect. Furthermore, the presence of government-owned banks as development banks plays a positive role in stabilizing the economy during a sovereign or currency crisis. In countries where foreign banks dominate the banking sector, these banks amplify the adverse effect of a volatile credit supply on the volatilities in output, consumption, and investment growth rates, especially during a banking crisis.

Resilience assessment model for biodiesel supply chain: an Indonesian case study

Biodiesel is a significant energy resource that yields sustainable economic, social, and environmental benefits. The escalation of global tensions has contributed to increased uncertainty in the energy industry, including in the biodiesel sector. The biodiesel supply chain is frequently exposed to various risks from upstream to downstream supply chain. The ability to respond effectively to disruptions is vital for ensuring the long-term sustainability of the supply chain. Hence, supply chain resilience must be developed. The objective of this study is to design a resilience assessment model by connecting vulnerability factors with capability factors in a relationship matrix. A comprehensive review of the literature and rigorous experts’ opinions are the foundation for this model. The Indonesian biodiesel supply chain can be utilized as a case study to develop strategies based on this assessment to boost business resilience. Some research methods are used in this research such as review literature, questionnaires, expert opinions, and discussion. The assessment model matches various vulnerabilities, including turbulence, external pressure, and resource limits, to capabilities, including flexibility in sourcing, flexibility in order fulfillment, capacity, visibility, adaptability, and collaboration in supply chain resilience. The capability of risk sharing with partners and supplier contract flexibility are common strategies employed by the company to mitigate potential risks and uncertainties, particularly those arising from pricing and supply volatility. This research shows the relationship between vulnerabilities and supply chain capabilities, which enables managers to better prioritize SC capabilities based on the outcomes of the evaluation matrix. This study is also providing valuable insight for the policy implication to promote collaborations amongst Indonesian’s biodiesel supply chains.

Lithium: critical, or not so critical?

Some metals necessary to deliver renewable energy are considered critical. Metal criticality is a major factor in achieving energy decarbonization, leading to efforts to make metals uncritical . Among the most critical is lithium which, like many critical metals, represents a small-scale market experiencing significant demand increase causing price and supply volatility, thereby hindering necessary transformative investment. Global lithium demand is soaring, with current supply now dominated by pegmatite-sourced lithium hydroxide. Clay extraction has yet to be industrially proven, thus there remains uncertainty from where and in what quantity future lithium supply will come, and whether lithium remains critical, however geoscience research is best focused on pegmatite and clay-sourced lithium to improve discovery and extraction. Of five lithium criticality scenarios (business as usual; clays onstream; everything plus recycling; shift away from lithium; black swan event), only two project a longer-term criticality reduction. However, few metals will be critical over the very long term as techno-economic and environmental, social, and governance challenges can be overcome and/or metal demand will be structurally adjusted by substitution. Although criticality may be a short to medium term barrier to the energy transition, effective research and overall market forces will reduce the majority of mineral criticality over the longer term. Thematic collection: This article is part of The energy-critical metals for a low carbon transition collection available at: https://www.lyellcollection.org/topic/collections/critical-metals

Evaluating task executability of mobile robots with performance maps

Volatility in supply and demand caused by global disruptions such as wars or pandemics requires adaptable and changeable production systems. Since assembly accounts for significant production time and costs, the demand for changeable, line-less assembly systems is advancing. Controlling mobile robots in line-less assembly depends on understanding task executability. We propose the implementation of performance maps to evaluate the executability of assembly tasks within robot workspaces.Firstly, established performance metrics and typical assembly tasks are categorized to identify which metrics evaluate the executability of which type of tasks. The assembly tasks are grouped according to the type of movement (continuous or discrete), the required execution precision (high or low), and the amount of poses for execution (reachable or dexterous). The metrics are categorized according to their range (local or global), their physics (kinematic or dynamic), task reference (intrinsic or extrinsic), and scale (absolute or relative). Metrics are then matched to task types. This matching provides a systematic way to identify metrics to assess the executability of a task.Secondly, the performance map is presented. The performance map is a discretized representation of the distribution of chosen performance metrics for a specific robot. The current implementation is restricted to calculating the manipulability, dexterity, and condition number. Based on the input of a robot model and a task type, the metrics are calculated in distributed poses for a given resolution in the robot’s workspace to form the performance map. The performance map is applied to exemplary tasks and robots.Previous approaches to workspace evaluation fail to consider the suitability of performance metrics to evaluate specific tasks, as different metrics are more or less relevant for different tasks. Consequently, the paper contributes by introducing performance maps and providing quantific metrics for comparing base placements of mobile robots according to the executability of specific assembly tasks.

МЕТОДИЧЕСКИЙ ПОДХОД К ОЦЕНКЕ И РЕГУЛИРОВАНИЮ ДИСБАЛАНСА СПРОСА И ПРЕДЛОЖЕНИЯ ПРОФЕССИОНАЛЬНЫХ КАДРОВ НА РЕГИОНАЛЬНЫХ РЫНКАХ ТРУДА

The article presents a methodological approach to assessing and regulating the imbalance of demand and supply of professional personnel in regional labor markets. The author's methodology for assessing imbalances in professional personnel consists of four stages. In the first stage, the degree of regional differentiation is assessed according to the criteria of sectoral structural changes in employment and production based on indicators of regional asymmetry of structural changes, the quadratic coefficient of absolute structural changes, the integral coefficients of structural differences by K. Gatev, A. Salai, the V.M. Ryabtseva. In addition, the paper determines the dominant type of imbalance in the supply and demand of professional personnel (in the context of higher vocational training, secondary vocational training, nongovernmental education) in regional labor markets, it also classifies the subjects of the Russian Federation according to this criterion and identifies the differences in regional situations. The second stage is to assess the dynamic characteristics of the imbalance of professional personnel based on indicators of demand and supply volatility. The volatility of the types of imbalances in demand and supply of professional personnel is determined (in the context of higher vocational education, secondary vocational education, nongovernmental education), and an assessment and differentiation of regional situations is made based on the variability of imbalances. The third stage consists of assessing the determinants of the imbalance of professional personnel in regional labor markets. Based on groups of indicators that induce spatial differences in situations of imbalance in demand and supply of professional personnel in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, these differences are identified, grouped by the dominant type of imbalance, according to the most significant factors (based on the tools of regression models). The contribution of each factor is determined. The fourth stage is to develop monitoring and tools for regulating regional labor markets in accordance with the type, dynamic characteristics and determinants of the imbalance of professional personnel.

Research on Large-scale Energy Storage of Chinese Power System Based on Demand Analysis

With the construction and development of a low carbon and environmental protection society, China is promoting the construction of a clean, low carbon, safe and efficient energy supply system, the most critical of which is to promote the rapid construction of new energy installed capacity. However, with the continuous expansion of the new energy installed capacity, the random volatility of the power supply has become an important factor that puzzles the power balance of the current power system, not only formed a larger peak pressure, but also became one of the important factors restricting the development of new energy. At the same time, the new energy power electronic equipment has weak supporting characteristics, which also makes the proportion of new energy power system continues to increase, and has a high impact on security. In this context, this paper carries out a demand analysis, firstly discussing the demand for large-scale energy storage in the development of new energy for power system, and secondly analyzing the demand for large-scale energy storage in the safe operation of large power grid, so as to promote the construction of GW-level electrochemical energy storage power station and effectively deal with the power imbalance and safety problems.

Photovoltaic/Hydrokinetic/Hydrogen Energy System Sizing Considering Uncertainty: A Stochastic Approach Using Two-Point Estimate Method and Improved Gradient-Based Optimizer

In this paper, stochastic sizing of a stand-alone Photovoltaic/Hydrokinetic/Hydrogen storage energy system is performed with aim of minimizing the cost of project life span (COPL) and satisfying the reliability index as probability of load shortage (POLS). The stochastic sizing is implemented using a novel framework considering two-point estimate method (2m+1 PEM) and improved gradient-based optimizer (IGBO). The 2m+1 PEM is used to evaluate the impact of uncertainties of energy resource generation and system demand on sizing problem. The 2m+1 PEM utilizes the approximate method to account for these uncertainties. In order to avoid premature convergence, the gradient-based optimizer (GBO), a meta-heuristic algorithm influenced by Newtonian concepts, is enhanced using a dynamic lens-imaging learning approach. The size of the system devices, which is determined utilizing the IGBO with the COPL minimization and optimally satisfying the POLS, is one of the optimization variables. The results of three hPV/HKT/FC, hPV/FC, and hHKT/FC configurations of the system are presented in two situations of deterministic and stochastic sizing without and with taking uncertainty into consideration. The findings showed that the hPV/HKT/FC configuration and the IGBO performed better than other configurations and techniques like conventional GBO, particle swarm optimization (PSO), and artificial electric field algorithm (AEFA) to achieve the lowest COPL and POLS (higher reliability) in various cases. Additionally, the COPL for the hPV/HKT/FC, hPV/FC, and hHKT/FC configurations increased by 7.63%, 7.57%, and 7.65%, respectively, while the POLS fell by 5.01%, 4.48%, and 4.59%, respectively, contrasted to the deterministic sizing, according to the results of stochastic sizing based on 2m+1 PEM. As a result, the findings indicate that in the deterministic sizing model, the quantity of output and energy storage is insufficient to meet demand under unknown circumstances. Applying stochastic sizing while taking into account the volatility of both supply and demand can, therefore, be an economically sound way to meet demand.

China's Path towards Global Green Governance on Rare Earth Elements: Challenges and Opportunities

In light of surging demands for critical minerals and its rising profile as a global provider, China can no longer dismiss the negative ecological externalities resulting from its unregulated, near-monopoly production of rare earth elements (REE) since the 1970s. REE, consisting of 17 elements with naturally enhanced chemical properties, is critical for manufacturing future green infrastructures and technologies. However, the extraction and refining processes are resource-intensive and toxic to the immediate environment, further exacerbated by improper radioactive waste management, underfunded land restoration, and illegal mining. By extension, China’s supply supremacy came at the cost of socio-ecological deprivation disproportionately experienced by the local community compared to the beneficiary beyond borders. This study aims to assess the challenges and opportunities for China as they seek global leadership in green governance through its post-reform sustainable development model guided by Ecological Civilization (EC) principle. Using narrative analysis methods, we seek to assess the intersection among three threads: the historical account of China’s REE global dominance, their elite-based approach to governance, and the unmitigated socio-ecological impacts on the local community; regarding EC and its derivatives. While domestic consolidation is strategically integral to China’s EC-guided development agenda, it poses dormant risks of supply volatility for international markets, and innovative secondary production becomes the new source of competitive edge for supply diversification and norm-making power.

UKRAINE CONFLICT’S IMPACT ON PAKISTAN FOREIGN POLICY

The situation in Ukraine has significantly impacted Pakistan's foreign policy, affecting a variety of areas and posing difficulties and options for the nation's international relations. This essay seeks to offer a thorough study of the conflict's repercussions on domestic and international politics, as well as its ramifications for trade, energy, food security, and shifting alliances. Despite Ukraine's distance from Pakistan, the crisis there has had an impact on world politics, changing the balance of power and necessitating tactical changes. Understanding Pakistan's reaction in its foreign policy depends on knowing how the conflict will affect regional and global affairs. This study investigates the effects of the conflict and sheds light on Pakistan's participation in the changing geopolitical environment. The conflict may have an impact on trade, food security, and the energy sector, to name a few industries. Global supply chains and trade routes could be disrupted, which would change economic dynamics. Additionally, because the conflict may affect trade routes and access to resources, issues to food security may appear. Geopolitical changes may cause volatility and uncertainty in the energy sector's energy supply and pricing. Comparative analysis of Ukraine's exports of military equipment to Pakistan and India can shed light on how the regional defense partnerships are changing. Understanding the choices both nations made when purchasing military hardware from Ukraine aids in clarifying Pakistan's foreign policy philosophies and strategic considerations. Pakistan's foreign policy has been significantly impacted by the situation in Ukraine. A thorough comprehension of the dynamics at play can be attained by analyzing the conflict's effects on various sectors, looking at shifting partnerships, and comprehending the decisions and difficulties faced by Pakistan. Policymakers, academics, and analysts who want to understand Pakistan's foreign policy in the wake of the Ukraine conflict can benefit greatly from this research.

Multi-Dimensional Value Evaluation of Energy Storage Systems in New Power System Based on Multi-Criteria Decision-Making

The power sector may reduce carbon emissions and reach carbon neutrality by accelerating the energy transition and lowering its reliance on fossil fuels. However, there are limitations on the new power system’s ability to operate safely and steadily due to the randomness, volatility, and intermittent nature of renewable energy supply. The key to solving this issue is to harness the flexible resources that energy storage systems (ESSs) represent; however, ESSs have more than a value for providing system flexibility. Thus, this study suggested a flexible, technical, economic, and environmental value index system based on multi-criteria decision-making models for evaluating the multi-dimensional value of ESSs. First, the objective and subjective weights are obtained using the CRITIC model and best–worst method; then, the weights are combined using the minimum relative entropy model. The complete values of five typical ESSs are then evaluated using the TOPSIS model. Three scenarios that reflect the traits of the new power system are then created and analyzed. The outcome demonstrates the following: (1) as the new power system continues to grow, the value of ESSs’ flexibility has become ever more crucial; (2) as the need for system flexibility increases, the value of electrochemical ESSs gradually manifests.

균형대체모형을 이용한 양파･마늘 TRQ 도입 영향 분석

This study analyzes the impact of the introduction of Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) on the onion and garlic markets in Korea using an Equilibrium Displacement Model (EDM). For the more specific discussion, three scenarios was set up as follows: (1) Introduction of Onion TRQ, (2) Introduction of Garlic TRQ, and (3) Introduction of Onion and Garlic TRQ. As the result of analyses, introducing TRQ causes the increase of import, and then decreases of domestic price and production which result in the decrease of producers’ income. The scenario 2 had a greater impact on the market of substitutes than scenario 1. Scenario 3 had a greater change on supply, demand and price than scenarios 1 and 2. These results present that the introduction of Garlic TRQ should be concerned more carefully than the Onion TRQ. Moreover, while the simultaneous introduction of TRQ in agricultural products with a production substitution relationship can stabilize prices, it increases the volatility of supply and demand. Also, the market size of the onion was reduced than garlic. This study is the practical research using the TRQ plan announced by the government and applied the EDM which is easy to change and expand the target market. Discussions on the results of this study can provide political guidelines and implications for establishing the TRQ plan.

Exploring global supply and demand of scandium oxide in 2030

Due to its light-weighting potential and utility in fuel cells, scandium incorporation is important to achieving decarbonization and energy efficiency. Forecasting scandium supply and demand is complex due to lack of public data and uncertainty in potential new market sectors such as automobiles and commercial airplanes. Consultants provide forecasts, but the underlying assumptions are unclear, and results differ by firm. We explore global supply and demand of scandium oxide in 2030 using public data and information from government, consultants, and literature to analyze two possible scenarios: business-as-usual share of scandium products in sectors and an assumed additional 10% share, including new applications. For supply, in addition to current producers, planned and proposed scandium oxide suppliers are assessed and ranked to match demand scenarios. Current production is 14–23 tonnes per annum, if proposed projects are built by 2030 the maximum total is approximately 1,800 tonnes. The business-as-usual scenario would result in 38 tonnes of production per annum in 2030. The assumed additional 10% share scenario suggests supply would be sufficient to meet all demand at 260 tonnes in 2030, except in automobiles, which could use 5,300 tonnes. Scandium oxide production would need to expand by 3,700 tonnes in 2030 over proposed projects to meet the additional 10% share. Adoption is not ensured if price and supply volatility remain. The most critical drivers of future scandium oxide demand are its price and availability.

Volatility in the Turkish wholesale electricity market: an assessment

ABSTRACT Electricity prices are determined in wholesale markets. A major issue in determining prices is the distortive effect of high volatility of supply. This paper investigates the volatility of electricity supply in the Turkish energy exchange for the period between 2017 and 2020, by using hourly data. We find that volatility increased substantially during this period and uncertainty became a major issue. High volatility brings non-price variables such as institutional and political preferences to the forefront in terms of the decision-making of suppliers. We also discuss the dominance of bilateral contracts, the design of the renewable support mechanism, and the disappearance of independent traders in the wholesale market as some of the major issues that correlate with high volatility.

The paradox of overcapacity in African energy sectors

Several African countries are experiencing problems with overcapacity in their energy sectors on a scale that cannot be explained or justified with reference to the volatility of supply alone. This constitutes a paradox in contexts where many people do not have access to modern energy. Based on a review of the scant existing literature, this paper provides an overview of existing explanations for overcapacity and discusses its potential implications. It identifies three general explanations whose relative weight, however, differ from one country to another, namely the quality of planning and management, national ideology and political interests, and the role of donors and private investors. Among the potential implications are not only the increasing deficits and debts of public utilities, higher tariffs and reduced access to energy, but also delays in energy transitions. This has policy implications for energy-sector planning, including the role of bureaucracies and experts, the management of public utilities and debt, and tariffs, as well as for procurement and contracting. Overall, more research is needed.

China-Europe freight transportation under the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic and government restriction measures

International freight transportation experienced significant disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic. The impact of the pandemic and related government restriction measures on international freight transportation is worth analysing for the development of transportation policies and practices in the post-pandemic period, but has received limited attention. To fill the gap, this study applies structural equation models to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the international transportation market and the relationships among the pandemic, government restriction measures, and international transportation market. The impact is also differentiated for different modes of transportation. Results confirm that both demand and supply of international transportation services have been negatively affected by the first wave of the pandemic, with sea transportation being more affected by the reduction of demand and air transportation more by the supply volatility. The government restriction measures are found to play a mediation role, in the way that the impact of the pandemic on the supply of transportation service is suppressed through the government restriction measures. Our findings provide important guidance for transportation industry players and governments in their decision-making process facing with global market shocks such as a pandemic.

Optimal plan for energy conservation and CO2 emissions reduction of public buildings considering users' behavior: Case of China

Public buildings play a significant role in carbon emissions reduction and building energy conservation. This study establishes a simulation model for an existing public building in China's hot summer and cold winter areas. It applies the global sensitivity analysis model to obtain the optimally combined strategy of energy-saving renovation, including users' behavior and other parameters' changes. Finally, this study implements a time-of-use (TOU) pricing strategy through the demand response function, and obtains an optimization plan for energy conservation and CO2 emission reduction. Results show that in the combined strategy, on a typical day in summer, energy consumption, carbon emissions and energy expenditure of users are reduced by 24.5%. Moreover, in the TOU pricing strategy, the energy consumption and carbon emissions are reduced by 26.4%, and the energy expenditure of users is reduced by 26.1%. In summary, considering users' comfort, energy consumption, and economy, adopting the TOU pricing strategy is beneficial to load response and adjusting power supply volatility. Moreover, it reduces the electricity cost of users and the maintenance cost of the power supply bureau. This study provides new ideas for energy conservation and CO2 emissions reduction in existing public buildings.

The compressive study of energy security prospects in India through Solar Power

Abstract Energy security depends upon the supply and demand of electricity. Power supply volatility is a challenge in India power sector. India is mainly dependent on coal, which is not a viable long-term option. Hence the future of energy supply in India is renewable energy, and solar energy is the most prominent and reliable source of renewable energy. The solar power plant is classified as a low, medium, and high temperature based solar power plant. The low- temperature solar power plant, the collectors, are unglazed plates. In contract, medium-temperature collectors are flat plates, and high-temperature collectors concentrate sunlight using mirrors and lenses, achieving temperature and pressure up to 3000 °C and 20 bar. This article discusses the existing total energy scenario, current solar energy developments, supportive solar energy policies, and solar energy prospects. The tactics, availability, perspectives, potential, and successes of solar energy in India are discussed in this study. The authors compared the barriers to solar energy acceptance and examined the topic of social dissimilarity from a broad theoretical perspective. The study offers policymakers at the federal and state levels, as well as investors, a perspective on issues that may lead to investments in this area. The study states that solar energy could meet above 50% of electricity sector demand in India in 2040. This study determined that solar energy incidence in India is around 5000 trillion KWh (kilowatt-hours) each year. The solar energy accessible in a single year surpasses the energy output from the petroleum derivative. The average energy from the solar power plant is 0.30 kWh per m2 equal to the 1400–1800 peak rated capacity. India has many solar power facilities, making it one of the top producers of renewable energy power.

Evaluating Options to Integrate Energy Storage Systems in Albania

The focus of the paper is to identify for the first time the most adequate energy storage systems (ESS) applicable in the central or bulk generation of the electricity sector in Albania. The application and integration of ESS is a smart way to overcome the problems of timely power supply volatility and minimizing energy losses, transmission congestion relief and upgrade deferral (top 10%), energy time shift (arbitrage), and many other services that reduce the cost of electricity and gain the security of energy supply. The presence of high-level rates of water discharges into the Hydropower Power Plants (HPP) and the problems of congestion in the transmission grid are the two main problems that require new methods for addressing and solving them. To select the right form and type of ESS that should be applied in our national energy system, E-select, a very flexible and internationally approved model is chosen. The results of this study are necessary for achieving a flexible, cheaper, and environmentally friendly energy system in Albania.