Megaproject Success Research Articles

An advanced tool for dynamic risk modeling and analysis in projects management

Risk is inherently present in all projects. Quite often, many projects fail to achieve their time, quality, and budget goals. Despite its high relevance to the success of megaprojects, risk management remains one of the least developed research issues. Therefore, advanced risk assessment is essential in minimizing losses and enhancing profitability. This paper proposes an advanced decision support tool using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) for dynamic risk assessment in project management. The proposed tool is able to predict the impact of each risk on the other risks or the outcomes of projects by considering uncertainties and complex interdependencies among risk factors. This tool could help project managers to manage the risks in a more effective and precise way and offer better risk mitigation solutions. The proposed tool could be undertaken by all organizations with the highest level of risk management maturity in the largest and most complex projects. In addition, it can be applied as an advanced decision support tool in variety of problems such as prioritization, failure analysis, etc. An academic numerical example related to outsourcing illustrates the applicability and simplicity of the proposed method.

Shaping complex mega-projects: practical steps for success

Mega-project success is difficult and often interpreted differently by different stakeholders. Too many large engineering/science projects fail in terms of budget, schedule and/or performance. Such failures have profound implications for the construction and commissioning organisations, the funders (often spending public money), and end users. Successful design and delivery is, therefore, not only a commercial necessity but also a societal imperative. In this paper, I focus on the inception, planning and feasibility phases of complex mega-projects, based on extant and updated research into the literature and case studies. I examine key success drivers from recent studies of large-scale high-technology projects, drawing out early stage factors shown to be especially potent. I discuss the importance of project goal(s) and success definitions; tackling complexity; and early selection of competent procurement processes. I explore resilience-building processes to curb optimism, learning from like projects, and a ‘mission-assurance’ mindset. Lastly, I advocate an approach to threat management beyond the traditional risk assessment models. This paper draws out the more subtle, often overlooked, aspects of complex mega-project management shown to be crucial at the start-up stages. The findings led to the development of a complex project audit tool now offered to readers.

Cultural sense-making integration into risk mitigation strategies towards megaproject success

Megaprojects have been described as extremely large-scale infrastructure projects typically costing over $1billion (Brookes, 2015). They are complex, take many years to develop and involve a multiplicity of stakeholders (public and private) to effect the proposed transformational benefits which impact millions of people (Flyberg, 2014). The nature of megaprojects depending on their management have either positive or negative impact on stakeholders and strongly influence megaproject success within the context of the iron triangle (cost, quality & time) (Atkinson, 1999). Consequently, social responsibility initiatives to better manage stakeholder risk and support successful execution of projects are often deployed. However, such initiatives often backfire and further challenge project delivery resulting in stereotyping and utilization of one size fits all approaches.This paper explores the implementation of megaprojects and their risk associated with social responsibilities (SR) in megaprojects through the lens of cultural sense-making. The paper propositions that a requisite understanding of the socio-cultural context of stakeholders through sense-making can act as a lever in stereotyping reduction thus improving risk management associated with megaproject success. The paper applies a problematization (Alvesson and Sandberg, 2011) perspective challenging underlying assumptions regarding existing risk management approaches in megaproject management and closely examining existing gaps as it relates to successful implementation.

Developing a Program Organization Performance Index for Delivering Construction Megaprojects in China: Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation Analysis

AbstractThe emergence of construction megaprojects has become a global phenomenon over the last two decades as a result of rapid urbanization. Program management has been increasingly promoted as a vital approach for ensuring megaproject success through the coordinated management of the dispensed execution of a program at the organizational level. Nevertheless, practicing this method in construction megaprojects is a continual improvement process that requires relevant guidelines and tools. This study proposes an innovative tool to evaluate a structured program organization in conjunction with the fuzzy synthetic evaluation method. Based on determinants of program organization identified from a Delphi survey previously conducted by authors regarding the Shanghai Expo construction, combined with results of further Delphi surveys for the same project, the use of this new evaluation approach in the case project is illustrated step-by-step. With this tool, clients can better utilize the program management app...

Understanding Megaproject Success beyond the Project Close-Out Stage

Project success has always been an important topic in the project management literature. One of the main discussions is concerned with how a project’s success is evaluated and what factors lead to achieving this success. Traditionally project success has been measured at the point where the project outputs are handed over, after the close out phase. Recently, questions have been raised in the literature as to whether we should be evaluating project success beyond the close out phase, to better account for organizational and societal outcomes. However, not much has been published about how the long term impacts and outcomes are measured. This is of particular concern in megaprojects as they often attract a high level of public attention and political interest, and have both direct and indirect impacts on the community, environment, and national budgets. In this paper the authors review success factors and criteria that are applicable to projects in general and megaprojects in particular. They identify the significance of evaluating outcomes and impact and propose an ex-post project evaluation (EPPE) framework for megaprojects.

The Kra Isthmus Canal: A New Strategic Solution for China's Energy Consumption Scenario?

This paper is a conceptual study that examines the viability of the construction of the Kra Isthmus within the context of the five dimensions of megaproject success of Sovacool and Cooper (The governance of energy megaprojects: politics, hubris, and energy security, 2013)-social (governance), technological (systems), democratic (politics), externalities (economics, ecology), and risks assessments (accountability), and its possible impact on China's strategic energy supply chain. One of the objectives of this study is also to discuss the current impacts, perceived benefits, and risks of China's dependence on its multinational and transnational pipelines. China could see the construction of Kra Canal as an alternative option for its strategic sourcing activities especially crude oil and gas at much lower costs. The megaproject would become a passageway that connects the Indian Ocean, Andaman Sea, and the Gulf of Siam at the choke point of Isthmus region in Thailand. However, this megaproject could also trigger the internal conflicts of Thailand, and affect the ASEAN countries' political and economic relationships.

Critical Drivers of Megaprojects Success and Failure

This paper describes the initial results of analysis of critical factors that can affect megaprojects success or failure. Megaprojects success and failure have been a very popular research topic in the last decade. There is a common understanding that megaprojects are important drivers of society changes. Their impact is an important phenomenon because of the influence on both society itself and its economy. Despite the best practices all around the globe, numerous challenges can move a megaproject from a programmed success to a failure scenario. It creates an interval of uncertainty over the final result of a megaproject and its positive impact as well as over the justification of the enormous amount of resources spent. In spite of many researches done so far, it is still not clear what are the causes of megaproject success and failures. This paper evaluates the topic through the review of researches done so far. The focus of the research is in influence of success and failure factors on the megaprojects to examine whether megaprojects success can be well quantified through success or failure factors. Project management success school of thought is used as a ground for the research approach. The literature review is compiled of the data obtained through a comprehensive search across research center databases, mainly in Europe. In parallel the selected data from practice and known research centers for major projects are compared. The findings from both, literature review and practice, show the selected drivers for improving megaproject success and efficiency. The discussion on results is enclosed, as well as the ground for further research on the topic.

When do megaprojects start and finish? Redefining project lead time for megaproject success

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose to redefine the concept of project lead time (PLT) to encompass the time between the project initial idea and the moment in which success is being assessed, which can be beyond the project close-out, using whatever criteria is appropriate for the stakeholder at that moment in time. The conventional project life cycle does not count for the long-term effects of the megaproject, which can have a significant impact on its perception of success. Thus the megaproject life cycle should include a significant part of the operational life cycle of the end product or result, and the criteria of success should include the long-term benefits of the project (measured along various years after the delivery of the end product or result). Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses three illustrative cases of megaprojects: Airbus A380, London Heathrow Terminal 5 and London Olympic Games 2012. These megaprojects, despite their problems in achieving objectives of time, cost and quality (the triple constraint), can be viewed as success or failure depending on the performance and benefits of the resulting product/infrastructure analysed over a long period of time after its delivery. Findings – In order to reconcile the usual distinction between project and product life cycle, and the various definitions of success in different moments of the project/product life cycle, the authors propose to redefine the concept of PLT to encompass the time between the project initial idea and the moment in which success is being assessed, beyond the project close-out, using any criteria which is appropriate for the stakeholder at that moment in time. Originality/value – When assessing the success of the megaproject it is important to define the PLT under which success is being assessed. As pointed out earlier, in findings, the authors propose to redefine the concept of PLT to encompass the time between the project initial idea and the moment in which success is being assessed, beyond the project close-out, using any criteria which is appropriate for the stakeholder at that moment in time.

Leveraging HR for success of Mega Projects

Leveraging HR for success of Mega Projects

Understanding the Determinants of Program Organization for Construction Megaproject Success: Case Study of the Shanghai Expo Construction

Program management is increasingly regarded as a key approach to improving the performance of a construction megaproject through the coordinated management of its constituent projects. However, previous studies have seldom provided a pragmatic program management framework that can fully address the requirements of clients in managing construction megaprojects. Therefore, based on a case study of the Shanghai Expo construction, this study aims to identify the principal program organization factors (POFs) that are determinants of the program organization established by a client to manage a megaproject. Mixed research methods, such as case study, literature review, interviews, Delphi survey, and archival methods, are employed in this study. Consequently, 12 principal POFs, grouped under three main categories (environmental capability, core capacity, and motivational capability of the client’s program organization to manage its construction megaproject), are identified: (1) contextual understanding, (2) program strategy, (3) program leadership, (4) scope management, (5) program governance, (6) matrix organizational structure, (7) program management office, (8) use of project breakdown structure and work breakdown structure tools, (9) partnering with key stakeholders, (10) technology management, (11) communication management, and (12) team building. These research findings will help scholars and professionals, particularly those in China, to appreciate the key issues in managing megaprojects through program organization.

Project Characteristics Enabling the Success of Megaprojects: An Empirical Investigation in the Energy Sector

Megaprojects are extremely large-scale investment projects typically costing more than EUR 0.5 billion. They include power plants, infrastructural projects and even cultural events. Historical data show very poor performance for megaprojects. In particular they are often over-budget and/or behind schedule and, once finished, they deliver less benefits than planned. Despite the existing research in megaprojects, it is still unclear which project characteristics promote the delivery of successful megaprojects. This paper starts to tackle this issue focusing on energy projects and performing a cross-case analysis assessing how project characteristics are correlated with performance. The database is composed of 11 projects described by 50 characteristics categorised in 9 groups. The analysis assesses the correlation of the independent variables with the dependent performance variables expressed as spend against budget, delay in the planning phase of the project and delay in the execution phase of the project. The correlation is tested using the Fisher Exact test. The results show that there are few independent variables strongly correlated to the dependent variables. On the other hand several independent variables do not seem correlated to project performance. In the conclusions, the paper provides a rich research agenda for further investigations.

Risk Management in Megaprojects

Despite its high relevance to the success of megaprojects, risk management remains one of the least developed research issues. Risk management is a process composed of several phases. This paper is focused on the first of these phases: risk identification. Our purpose is to establish the state of the art in risk management in megaprojects, systematize the risks studied in the literature, as well as to identify potential areas of further research. To this end, a systematic review is carried out. Academic journals and conference papers published from 2000 onwards in main databases (WoK, Scopus and ABI) have been examined. A qualitative analysis has been performed by using ATLAS.ti together with a checklist. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no previous systematic revision of papers on risk management in megaprojects has ever been carried out, although certain authors have emphasized its importance.The contribution of this research includes: a bibliometric analysis of the papers that focus on risk management in megaprojects; a systematization and classification of the risks; tw†o matrices comprised of the proposed risk categorization, first in relation to the sector studied, and second related with the different stakeholders; and an identification of gaps in the research in risk management in megaprojects.The systematization of the risks helps managers towards their identification within the megaproject, and to follow the subsequent steps in the risk management process. Moreover, the matrix developed on the transfer of risks can enable managers to analyse who would be the best partner to support each risk. Furthermore, from an academic point of view, potential areas for future lines of research are presented.

Managing global megaprojects: Complexity and risk management

“Megaproject,” a concept of growing importance in today's globally connected business environment, requires a closer examination as a result of the expansion of global networks, increasing collaborations among numerous partners, and the complexity of managing such projects. Yet, given their high rate of failure, it is critical to examine the factors that contribute to success of megaprojects. In such a high-pressure, competitive, and complex environment, it is inevitable that companies will engage in complex, global, collaborative projects in order to reap the rewards of these significant, large-scale initiatives and ultimately become major players in the game. Despite the considerable scale of megaprojects, the international business literature has largely neglected to examine this topic. This paper takes an exploratory approach to identify key characteristics of global megaprojects, factors contributing to disappointing outcomes, and offers a risk management framework and managerial prescriptions for enhancing success. Building on the prospect theory, self-justification theory, and sunk cost effect, we examine the behavior of decision making under risk in megaprojects. We conclude that by adopting a successful risk management approach and following best practice, success rate and the productivity of global collaborative projects can be enhanced.

Rating Defense Mega-Project Success: The Role of Personal Attributes and Stakeholder Relationships

In this paper, we develop and test a model of the relationships between mega-project leaders’ personal attributes and their ratings of project success in the context of the Australian defense industry. In our model, emotional intelligence, cognitive flexibility, and systemic thinking were hypothesized to be related to project success ratings, mediated by internal and external stakeholder relationships. We tested the model in an online survey study of 373 mega-project leaders. Results were that emotional intelligence and cognitive flexibility were found to be related to the quality of mega-project leader’s relationships with both internal and external stakeholders; and that these relationships in turn were found to be associated with the project leaders’ ratings of project success. We found however that systemic thinking had no relationship with either stakeholder relationships or ratings of project success. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of these findings and make recommendations for future research. In particular, additional research is needed to examine the contribution of a wider range of competencies on stakeholder relationships and project success in mega- projects, and that there is also a need for research in future to attempt to use more objective ratings of project success.

Summarization of Brainstorming Notes by Natural Language Analysis: An Example

When a panel carries out a brainstorming session on an issue or research question, it is often difficult to apply text summarization to the brainstorming notes. This either gives the power of editing conclusions to the panel leader, which may favor some ideas, and/or slows down considerably the brainstorming process so that insufficient refinements can be carried out. It is in this context that natural language analysis, relying on linguistic resources, can focus on semantic classes and causal relations, to generate from the set of brainstorming notes a smaller set of hypothesis rules applying to the field being studied. In some cases, scenario analysis can even be quantified.The present paper documents in minute detail, in a specific case, how brainstorming note analysis and rule condensation can be made. The brainstorming raw material are reproduced, as well as all intermediate results up to and including the validation rules. The case is taken from the European “Megaprojects” COST collaboration which deals with the effective design of very large projects, esp. in infrastructure, energy, etc., called Megaprojects.The panel the results of which were studied was held in Bratislava in May 2012, and analyzed in Milan in July 2012. The condensed hypothesis rules produced by natural language analysis were further validated in and by six real “megaprojects,” to yield ultimately a set of general rules, open for later refinement by the same process.Taking the syntactically edited brainstorming notes from the Bratislava panel (Section 1), triggered by an unfocussed question on Megaprojects in general, and further manual editing/preparation/domain adaptation (Section 2) as input, the automated proprietary tool generates several results. They include in Section 3 and Section 4 the nominal group clustering tree with the assumed root structure. Section 5 gives the aggregated hypothesis rules organized by aggregation mechanism.The results, which are the hypothesis rules ranked by relevant note counts are given in Section 6. The note counts linked to specific hypothesis rules are given in Section 7 for quality control to avoid dominance of any specific brainstorming notes.The hypothesis rules are subject by two ratings (Section 8) from 6 independent Energy WG cases, by case authors and/or project management.In summary, the natural language analysis of 70 sentences produced by the unfocussed brainstorming panel, and subsequent rating of the derived hypothesis from 6 independent cases, produces the following general rules about Megaprojects:Hypothesis rules validated with high note counts: A: Good management and good outcome are correlated; C: Links and incentives must be created for success for the different categories of Users and Builders; Hypothesis rules validated with average or low note counts; F: Policy AND Regulations are linked to execution AND outcome; G: The deployment context must be aligned with local benefits; H: Performance is improved by management; I: The same actors are found across Europe; J: Megaproject characteristics are linked to outcome. Three hypothesis rules are not validated.Subsequent refinement of these rules, or the generation of new rules, for example on priorities regarding the execution, or success, or other characteristics of Megaprojects, would require a more focused second brainstorming with one initial proposition/statement to which panelists would have to react in view of producing focused comments (to be analyzed in the same way). This is standard in sequential brainstorming analysis with refinements. Compared to state-of-the-art research in text summarization, the problem and solution presented here offer the advantage of better flexibility in view of domain specific terminology or semantic meanings.

Building Resilience in Large High-Technology Projects

Success in mega-projects is frequently discussed among project theoreticians and practitioners. This research focuses on high-technology projects and draws on recent literature and fieldwork at ten contemporary mega-science projects in Chile, Australia, and Europe. This study concludes that project success is not random, and early adoption of certain approaches, activities, and launch conditions will position a project for success and resilience. Nine resilience factors (beyond a priori programmatical artefacts) are grouped into three ‘attitudinal’ factors, and six ‘conditioning’ factors and then examined in detail against three case study projects. The study’s conclusion show that attitudinal factors remain a challenge, especially within institutional type high-tech projects, and launch conditioning shows mixed levels of application. Through the nine factors, this paper offers newly consolidated insights for high-tech project start-ups and presents the case for co-application of contingency funding and ‘proto’ task forces in response to unknown risks, and advocates the establishment of more formal information ‘traffic’ management through an empowered centralised project information office.

Workforce training initiatives for megaproject success

The recent trend of mega construction projects has resulted in some major challenges and opportunities for construction management and execution. One of these challenges is in construction workforce renewal and training. With a rapidly aging workforce, the challenge is to attract new workers while simultaneously providing adequate training for the influx of young and sometimes inexperienced people. Client–owners are now recognizing the economic need to implement advanced training on their projects, to improve productivity and minimize losses. With workforces ranging in the thousands, skilled labour has one of the most significant impacts on project outcomes. Alberta has seen a significant increase in workforce training initiatives, particularly since 2000. The objectives of this paper are to provide an overview of the recent advances and initiatives in workforce training in Alberta within the unionized building trades sector of the industrial construction industry and to highlight the economic significance of these initiatives for mega construction projects. The training contributions made by other key organizations are also presented. Key words: Alberta, apprentices, industrial construction, labour force, mentoring, trades, training, workforce.

Single Goal Set: A New Paradigm for IT Megaproject Success

Large IT projects lack a consistently satisfied client because they don't optimally allocate resources toward achieving the most vital organizational business goals. Inevitably, a resource crunch builds up by the time the project reaches midlife. A huge negative sentiment also accumulates, which further vitiates project success. To address this endemic problem, the SGS project methodology ensures that resources are first allocated to the critical deliverables. Achieving the SGS establishes a successful frame of mind for the project team, which also adds to the overall acceptance of the IT solution in the organization. IT project management must find answers for the malaise of myriad failed project. Focusing IT project management on implementing a single overarching goal might substantially increase project successes.