Subtropical Research Articles

Space-time analysis, severity of the wilt disease in escabeche pepper (Capsicum baccatum var. Pendulum) and identification of the causal agent (Phytophthora capsici L.) under subtropical climate conditions in Peru

Phytophthora capsici is an aggressive pathogen in escabeche pepper on the Peruvian coast. Root rot has a strong correlation with humidity and environment. Disease behavior was evaluated epidemiologically using spatiotemporal variables. Severity was evaluated according to the advance of the secondary symptom according to grades 1 to 5. Then, coordinates of each plant were established by photogrammetric survey of a field with 1705 escabeche pepper plants. For temporal analysis, severity was adjusted to an exponential model (R2 = 0.909) and incidence to a Gompertz model (R2 = 0.921) that detected an initial delay of the disease due to temperature. For the spatial analysis, the Global Moran Index (Ii) showed a high spatial dependence of the disease reaching a peak of 0.4 and 0.7 for severity and incidence, respectively. Also, heat maps related to the Local Ii were generated from which an initial source of infestation was determined where the furrow irrigation started in random infestations. Then, the infestation spots were settled in areas of surface water accumulation. Also, rhizosphere samples were collected per plant by degree of severity on V8 or CMA whit PARB and PDA-A selective medium. As a result, significant differences were obtained between grade 1, grade 2, 3, 4 and grade 5. In addition, the effect on yield was significant for plants with grade 4 and 5 with respect to fruit weight (22.3 and 18.5g/fruit) and weight per plant (509.5 and 371.8g/plant), respectively.

Envelope Deficiencies and Thermo-Hygrometric Challenges in Warehouse-Type Buildings in Subtropical Climates: A Case Study of a Nori Distribution Center

Enhancing the energy efficiency and climate resilience of existing buildings is crucial amid growing environmental challenges. While extensive research has focused on non-residential buildings, studies on thermo-hygrometric conditions in warehouse-type buildings, particularly in subtropical climates, remain limited. This study investigated the impact of building envelope deficiencies on indoor thermal and moisture regulation at the Nori Distribution Center. Using infrared thermal imaging and long-term environmental monitoring, significant thermo-hygrometric fluctuations were identified, primarily due to design and construction deficiencies. Poor insulation, inadequate sealing, and the lack of moisture barriers contributed to unstable indoor temperature and humidity. Seasonal analysis showed that during summer, the median second-floor air temperature reached 28.8 °C, peaking at 39.2 °C, with relative humidity exceeding 70% for 45% of the time. First-floor relative humidity surpassed 70% for 72% of the time. While condensation risk remains low year-round, it increases significantly with air infiltration through gaps in the building envelope. This study recommends enhancing the sealing of the building envelope, upgrading insulation materials and moisture barriers, particularly in the roof, and optimizing the HVAC system to improve energy efficiency and storage conditions. These findings offer valuable recommendations for retrofitting warehouse-type buildings in subtropical climates to improve energy efficiency and climate resilience.

Nitrogen leaching and groundwater recharge of alternative lawn conversions in subtropical climates

AbstractClimate change, recurrent droughts, and increasing urban water demands have limited water availability in urban landscapes. Water quantity challenges have led to irrigation restrictions and turfgrass removal programs. An experiment was conducted at the University of Florida, West Florida Research and Education Center, Jay, FL, to evaluate the effect of turfgrass conversion to other landscape types on nutrient leaching and groundwater recharge. In April 2021, all surface vegetation was removed from existing turfgrass plots using a sod harvester. Thereafter, plots were planted or covered with three landscape types: a pollinator landscape with flowering forbs (Mimosa sp., Coreopsis sp., and Phyla sp.) + turfgrass (Eremochloa ophiuroides); a nitrogen (N)‐efficient lawn (Arachis glabrata + Paspalum notatum); and a low‐input landscape with unplanted woodchip mulch. Undisturbed turfgrass (E. ophiuroides) served as a control. For 2 years, leachate samples were collected weekly from previously installed 168‐L drainage lysimeters for NO3‐N and NH4‐N load determination. Temporal changes in landscape composition, groundwater recharge, water use, and soil bulk density were also quantified. While the mulch leached 44.7 kg ha−1 NO3‐N year−1, this landscape still offers positive attributes, including erosion protection and water conservation. Conversely, the pollinator landscape minimized nitrogen leaching (8.3 kg ha−1 NO3‐N year−1) due to their relatively greater water use rates (3.56 mm day−1). The turfgrass and nitrogen‐efficient lawn returned ∼35% of the water inputs as groundwater recharge while maintaining relatively low nitrogen leaching (3.6 and 2.7 kg ha−1 NO3‐N year−1, respectively), making these landscapes efficient for protecting both water quality and quantity.

Exogenous Melatonin as Pre- and Postharvest Application on Quality Attributes, Antioxidant Capacity, and Extension of Shelf Life of Papaya

Papaya is widely grown in tropical and subtropical climates due to its high yield potential and high returns. The vital hormone melatonin, regulating various biological processes in plants, is eco-friendly and less harmful to humans than other chemicals. This study aims to enhance the quality and antioxidant enzyme activities and lessen postharvest senescence in papaya cv. CO 8 fruits during both ambient (32 ± 2 °C and 55 ± 5% RH) and cold storage (10 ± 2 °C and 90–95% RH) as exogenous melatonin (EMT) is applied in varying concentrations. An optimum melatonin dose of 1.5 mM was applied as a pre-harvest spray 15 days before harvest and a postharvest dip proved effective in prolonging shelf life (under ambient it prolonged to day 9 and under cold storage up to 28 days) and delaying ripening and softening. Exogenous melatonin application enhanced antioxidant activity, reduced weight loss, maintained firmness, delayed ripening enzymes, and lowered ethylene and CO2 levels. For instance, control fruits had weight losses between 7.42% and 10.09%, while fruits treated with 1.5 mM melatonin showed 5.74% and 9.06% weight loss under ambient and cold storage, respectively. In conclusion, applying EMT (1.5 mM) could be an economically viable and environmentally benign way to lessen senescence after harvest and preserve the qualities of the papaya fruit during ambient and cold storage.

Strategic cultivar and sowing time selection for weed management and higher redgram productivity in semi-arid Indian regions

IntroductionRedgram (Cajanus cajan L. Mill sp.), a leguminous crop commonly grown in tropical and subtropical climates, is highly valued for its high protein content (21%), which contributes significantly to food and nutritional security. However, its production faces challenges primarily due to terminal dryness experienced during critical growth stages because of changing rainfall patterns. To overcome this, adaptive techniques become imperative as the productivity of this crop is intricately linked to environmental factors and the crop’s growth cycle.MethodsHence, the field experiment was conducted at the National Pulses Research Centre, Vamban, Pudukkottai, Tamil Nadu, in South India under rainfed condition, during the kharif (monsoon) seasons of 2017–18 and 2018–19. The primary objectives were to determine the optimal sowing time and identify suitable redgram cultivars, especially in the context of the late onset of the monsoon in Tamil Nadu, a common issue under changing climate conditions. The experiments tested six different sowing dates with three redgram cultivars.Results and discussionThe findings highlighted the substantial influence of different redgram cultivars and sowing times on the crop’s growth characteristics and yield. Among the six sowing dates tested, planting in later half of June (S6) resulted in notably higher plant height (201 cm), a greater number of pods per plant (287), a seed yield of 1,112 kg ha−1, and a benefit-cost ratio of 2.61 Notably, this sowing period (S6) demonstrated comparable performance with the treatment of redgram sowing in the latter part of September (S4). CO 6 (V1) is the most productive of the three redgram cultivars, with the highest mean pant height (200 cm), number of pods per plant (237), grain yield (1,017 kg ha−1), and benefit cost ratio (2.38). Extended phenological phases along with extra days to reach phenological stages could account for the increased yield in comparison to the other cultivars. Among the two short-duration cultivars, VBN (Rg) 3 (V3) had a significantly higher mean grain yield of 958 kg ha−1 with the benefit-cost ratio of 2.24. Even though CO 6 (V1) obtained a higher yield due to its long duration nature, it matured in 187 days whereas VBN (Rg) 3 (V3) matured within 129 days. Consequently, the short-duration redgram cultivars emerge as highly suitable choices for integrating into crop sequences, thereby augmenting farm cropping intensity.

Multiple machine learning models for predicting annual energy consumption and demand of office buildings in subtropical monsoon climate

Multiple machine learning models for predicting annual energy consumption and demand of office buildings in subtropical monsoon climate

How to alleviate seasonal limitations on water quality in farmland ditches? The importance of plant selection and configuration

In subtropical monsoon climate regions, traditional plants in constructed wetlands such as farmland ditches underperform in cold months, detracting from both purification capacity and esthetic appeal. To alleviate this weakness, this study introduced Phalaris arundinacea, a species with strong adaptability and cold tolerance, into a plant community dominated by Phragmites australis, constructing an ingenious composite plant community for year‐round water quality restoration and enhancement of attractiveness. First, laboratory simulations revealed significant seasonal differences in the removal rates of ammonia nitrogen (NH3‐N), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) by the P. arundinacea community and P. australis community under different pollutant loads. Phragmites australis showed superior NH3‐N and TN removal capabilities from May to October, whereas P. arundinacea excelled in the rest of the months throughout the year. For TP removal, P. australis outperformed P. arundinacea from July to October, while P. arundinacea was more effective from January to May. We then verified this in rear farmland ditches, where P. australis were strategically partial substituted with P. arundinacea (Partial Replacement Treatment [PRT]), and compared it with unchanged farmland ditches (Control Treatment). We found that PRT enhanced decontamination efficiency over the year, especially significantly improving the water quality during colder months. Hence, this study advocates a novel strategy for effective annual decontamination and maintenance of wetlands such as farmland ditches, highlighting the importance of seasonally adaptive plant communities for water restoration. This transformative approach dramatically advances the field of wetland management, insisting on the important role of cold‐resistant species for year‐round ecosystem service optimization.

Impact of vegetation coverage and configuration on urban temperatures: a comparative study of 31 provincial capital cities in China

Urban vegetation plays a crucial role in regulating temperatures and heat waves in urban areas. However, the influence of vegetation coverage and its configuration on surface temperatures in different climate zones at a national scale is unclear. To address this, we utilized high-resolution data to detect spatial patterns for 31 provincial capital cities in China. We integrated day and night surface temperatures to determine the influence of vegetative coverage and configuration on urban temperatures across different climate zones and city sizes. Our study revealed that a subtropical monsoon climate and medium-sized cities had the highest vegetative coverage and shape complexity. The best connectivity and agglomeration of vegetation were found in a temperate monsoon climate and large cities. In contrast, small cities, especially those under a temperate continental climate, had low vegetation coverage, high fragmentation, and weak agglomeration and connectivity. In addition, vegetative coverage had a negative impact on daytime surface temperatures, especially in large cities in a subtropical monsoon climate. However, an increase in vegetation coverage could result in warming at night in small cities in temperate continental climates. Although urban vegetation configuration also contributed to moderating surface temperatures, especially at night, they did not surpass the influence of vegetation coverage. The effect on nighttime temperatures of the configuration of vegetation increased by 3–6% relative to that of daytime temperatures, especially in large cities in a temperate monsoon climate. The contribution vegetation coverage and configuration interaction to cooling efficiency decreased at night, especially in medium-sized cities in a temperate continental climate by 3–5%. In addition, this study identified several moderating effects of natural and social factors on the relationship between urban vegetation coverage and surface temperatures. High duration of sunshine, low humidity and high wind speed significantly enhanced the negative impact of vegetation coverage on surface temperatures. In addition, the moderating effect of vegetation coverage was more pronounced in low population density cities and high gross domestic product. This study enhances understanding of the ecological functions of urban vegetation and provides a valuable scientific basis and strategic recommendations for optimizing urban vegetation and improving urban environmental quality.

Plant Density and Location: Optimization of Growth and Quality of Cut Sunflower in Tropical and Subtropical Environments

The cultivation of sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) as a cut flower stands out in floriculture due to its aesthetic beauty and commercial value. Understanding how cut sunflower genotypes adapt to different edaphoclimatic regions and management practices is essential to optimize flower quality and productivity. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of plant density and location on the development, growth, and quality of cut sunflower in tropical and subtropical environments. Plant densities of 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 plants/m2 were evaluated in tropical climate and subtropical climate using a randomized block design in a factorial scheme. Results showed significant differences between locations for plant height, capitulum and stem diameter, final number of leaves, leaf area, leaf area index, phyllochron, and the developmental cycle. Plant density significantly influenced these variables except for plant height and developmental cycle. The interaction between location and plant density was significant only for capitulum diameter and final leaf number. The findings indicate that both planting density and location significantly influence the developmental cycle of cut sunflowers, with lower densities favoring more robust plants at harvest. A density of 30 plants/m2 is recommended for efficient space use without significantly compromising floral stem quality. All produced stems are marketable, suggesting that adjusting planting density can optimize production without compromising quality, adapting to specific regional conditions.

Differences in Nitrogen Sources and Contributions in Shallow Groundwater in Plateau Lake Area with Different Climate Types

Clarifying the concentration, major sources, and contribution differences of nitrogen in shallow groundwater in plateau lake areas with different climate types can provide a novel direction for the control of nitrate （NO3-） pollution in regional groundwater. Taking the shallow groundwater around Erhai Lake in the subtropical monsoon climate zone and Chenghai Lake in the dry-hot valley area of the Jinsha River as the research objects, using hydrochemical indexes and multi-isotope techniques （δ15N-NO3-, δ18O-NO3-, δ18O-H2O, and δ2H-H2O） combined with the stable isotope （SIAR） model； the differences in nitrogen concentration in shallow groundwater around Erhai Lake and Chenghai Lake were analyzed, the sources of NO3- were identified, and the contribution rates of each pollution source were calculated. The results showed that water quality of more than 33% and 5% of shallow groundwater sampling points around Erhai Lake and Chenghai Lake was worse than the groundwater Class Ⅲ quality requirements （GB/T 14848） of 20 mg·L-1 for nitrate nitrogen （NO3--N）, respectively. The δ18O-H2O and δ2H-H2O in shallow groundwater around Erhai Lake and Chenghai Lake were parallel to the global and Chinese atmospheric precipitation lines, and a large intercept was present, indicating that atmospheric precipitation was not the major recharge source of groundwater in the two regions. The contribution rate of different NO3- sources in shallow groundwater around Erhai Lake was the highest for soil organic nitrogen （53.77%）, followed by nitrogen fertilizer （21.75%） and manure and sewage （21.55%）, and atmospheric deposition nitrogen （2.93%） was the lowest. Denitrification occurred in the transformation process of nitrogen in groundwater. The contribution rate of different NO3- sources in shallow groundwater around Chenghai Lake was manure and sewage （44.88%） > soil organic nitrogen （37.03%） > nitrogen fertilizer （16.17%） > atmospheric deposition nitrogen （1.92%）, and nitrification occurred in the transformation process of nitrogen in groundwater. The climate type significantly affected the shallow groundwater level, altering the migration and transformation process of nitrogen, thereby affecting the nitrogen concentration in groundwater and the contribution of NO3- as the chief source. However, the major source of NO3- was not affected by the climate type； however was more affected by land use, agricultural activities, and manure treatment methods.

Molecular study of some vector–borne diseases in cattle raised in western Türkiye

Unfortunately, global warming, especially the global climate crisis, increases the rate of vector–borne infections. Among the causes of this infection are microorganisms in the Rickettsiales Order, which are Gram–negative and small coccobacillus microorganisms that can multiply within host cells and are dependent on their metabolism, in addition to bacterial infections, protozoa such as Babesia spp. and Theileria spp. are transmitted through vectors and cause serious diseases in animals. This study aimed to investigate the presence of some vector–borne bacterial and protozoan microorganisms in blood samples taken from cattle raised in Mugla province, located in the West of Türkiye, and to reveal relevant disease data for the region. In this study, blood samples taken from 100 cattle were examined using molecular methods. While Anaplasma phagocytophilum was detected in 15 blood samples (15%), Anaplasma ovis agent was detected in eight samples (8%). Anaplasma bovis agent (1%) was identified in only one blood sample. In the samples examined within the scope of the study, Ehrlichia and Rickettsia species from bacteria and Theileria spp. and Babesia spp. from parasitic agents could not be detected. Mugla province, located west of Türkiye, has a subtropical dry summer climate, so the probability of infections transmitted through arthropods is high. Since the agents are transmitted through ticks, conducting more studies on vector–borne diseases is essential. This includes mapping the region’s vector ticks and determining and evaluating the tick carrier and disease maps in cattle. The data obtained is thought to help create regional and national vector–borne disease maps.

Evaluation of aerial thermography for measuring the thermal transmittance (U-value) of a building façade

In efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in the construction sector, policies promoting energy efficiency improvements in existing buildings are being implemented. Accurately assessing the impact of energy retrofit strategies requires precise determination of thermal envelope performance through energy audits. Aerial thermography, employing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) equipped with infrared thermal cameras (IRT), is an underused method overcoming limitations in energy audits of large buildings or complexes. This approach offers an elevated perspective, providing an overview of the building’s thermal patterns, aiding in the identification of thermal envelope defects. By measuring temperature distribution, even in inaccessible envelope areas, the severity of identified defects can be estimated. Beyond detecting thermal bridges, air leaks, and moisture, aerial thermography is valid for estimating thermal transmittance (U-value) of enclosures. The aim of this research is to evaluate this method to calculate the U-value of the façade of an university building located in a Subtropical Mediterranean climate, during a typical full day in different seasons of the year. Concurrently with aerial thermography, the thermometric method (THM) was applied to compare results and refine the operational conditions during U-value measurement using different statistical indices and uncertainty analysis. The results demonstrated the validation of airborne thermography as a method for U-value calculation under specific meteorological and operational conditions, overcoming the common physical limitations of traditional building audit methods.

Assessing diurnal land surface temperature variations across landcover and local climate zones: Implications for urban planning and mitigation strategies on socio-economic factors

Rising temperatures and rapid urbanization globally reinforce the need to understand urban climates. We investigated the influence of land cover and local climate zones (LCZs) on diurnal land surface temperature (LST) in various seasons in greater Delhi region, India, and their implications on socio-economic factors. Day LST was the highest in the summer and night LST in the monsoon, which also had the lowest diurnal differences in LST. Higher height and density of built-up features contributed to greater heat at night. During the day, open built-up and vegetated areas experienced relatively less heat than their compact equivalents. The lowest diurnal difference was in medium height compact urban zones and tall vegetation. Social inequity in access to urban cooling was indicated by large low-income and heat-vulnerable populations inhabiting the hottest LCZs. This research highlighted that even in semi-arid and subtropical climates, spatial planning policy should consider both the seasonality and diurnal differences in temperature as much as appropriate morphologies for design of thermally comfortable and climate resilient urban spaces. These policies should address the evidenced social inequities in heat exposure to reduce the adverse health impacts on vulnerable groups and therefore contribute to wider societal and economic benefits of healthier populations.

Investigating the role of groundwater in Ecosystem Water Use Efficiency in India considering irrigation, climate and land use

Terrestrial ecosystems (TEs) play a crucial role in carbon sequestration and climate regulation. While interactions between surface water and ecosystems are well-studied, groundwater-ecosystem relationships remain poorly understood, particularly in groundwater-dependent regions like India. This study investigates the relationship between water table depth (WTD) and ecosystem productivity across India, considering the variation in irrigation practices, land use and climate types, from 2000 to 2021. We employ Ecosystem Water Use Efficiency (WUEe), the rate of carbon uptake per unit of water consumed, to examine these interactions at different spatial scales. Our findings reveal a strong link between WUEe and WTD. Shallower WTD regions, such as the lower Himalayas and Northeast India with forests and dominated by a wet/humid subtropical climate, exhibit higher WUEe (1.5 – 3.5 g C/kg H2O). Whereas deeper WTD regions like northwest India, characterized by shrublands and an arid climate, display lower WUEe (< 1 g C/kg H2O). This suggests vegetation in arid/semi-arid regions shows higher sensitivity to water availability compared to wetter areas. This is also evident by a declining WUEe trend and increasing elasticity of WUEe () to interannual climatic variability with increasing WTD in these regions. Furthermore, the study identifies potential unsustainable groundwater use for irrigation in areas like the Trans Gangetic plains. Irrigation has a strong correlation with evapotranspiration (ET) (r = 0.4 - 0.6) in deep WTD zones, but no correlation with WUEe. This implies that intense and unsustainable irrigation might disrupt the natural water use strategies of vegetation. This research, by improving understanding of these interactions, aims to contribute to the sustainable management of India’s groundwater resources.

Natural geometrical variations of Italian Phyllostachys edulis bamboo culms for construction purposes

Amid the increasing scarcity of raw materials, utilizing bamboo as a renewable building material offers significant environmental and economic benefits for the European construction sector. However, in Europe, the use of bamboo for construction remains limited due to a lack of studies on geometrical and material characteristics of European-cultivated bamboo species. Although bamboo is not typically grown in Europe, the number of bamboo plantations is steadily increasing in countries like Spain, France and Italy. Bamboos growing in temperate climates, however, are exposed to different environmental conditions during growth compared to bamboos from subtropical and tropical climates, such as those in China or Vietnam. As bamboo’s geometric properties are strongly influenced by the environmental conditions during growth, it is essential to investigate how bamboo culms of the same species grown in Europe compare to those from other regions. The present article reports findings on the geometry and geometric imperfections of 90 four-meter Italian bamboo culms. First, the Italian Phyllostachys edulis bamboo culms examined in this study are briefly introduced. Following, geometric imperfections of bamboo culms are defined, and the geometry measurement concept is presented. Subsequently, variations in internode lengths, diameters, wall thicknesses, ovalities, stem tapers and pre-deflections are described and analyzed. Finally, the findings from the Italian culms are compared with those from Asian Phyllostachys edulis. In summary, this article enhances the understanding of the geometric properties of bamboo grown in Europe, thereby advancing the use of cultivated bamboo culms in Europe and improving the overall understanding of bamboo characteristics across different climatic zones.

Monitoring of Leishmania infantum exposure in the Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus)

Leishmaniosis, caused by phlebotomine sand fly-borne Leishmania spp., is a multi-host and zoonotic disease in tropical, subtropical and temperate climates, worldwide. Leishmania infantum is the only endemic pathogenic species in Europe, and exposure to this protozoan has previously been reported in a wide range of wild mammals, including felids. However, the information about the exposure of the threatened Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) to L. infantum is still very scarce. Consequently, the aims of the present large-scale epidemiological study were: (1) to evaluate the circulation of L. infantum in the free-ranging and captive Iberian lynx populations and (2) to investigate potential risk factors associated with L. infantum exposure during the study period, between 2010 and 2022. A total of 783 Iberian lynxes from captive (n = 296) and free-ranging (n = 487) populations were sampled from different areas of the Iberian Peninsula. Exposure to L. infantum (positive to indirect fluorescent antibody test (IFAT) in serum and/or real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) in spleen samples) was detected in 80 of the 783 lynxes, so the estimated prevalence (95% confidence limits) was 10.2% (8.1-12.3%). Specifically, anti-Leishmania antibodies were found in 12 of the 469 lynxes (2.6%; 1.1-4.0%) and L. infantum kDNA was detected in 68 of the 333 lynxes (20.4%; 16.1-24.8%) with a Ct range from 26.0 to 38.0 (median: 36.0). One seroconversion and one seroreversion were observed among the 42 Iberian lynxes longitudinally sampled. Phylogenetic analysis revealed high homology (99.9-100%) with other L. infantum sequences obtained from wild rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus), Iberian hares (Lepus granatensis) and humans from Spain. The multivariate analysis identified the habitat status (free-ranging) and age (adult and subadult) as risk factors potentially associated with L. infantum exposure in Iberian lynxes. Our results indicate moderate and widespread circulation of this pathogen in the Iberian lynx populations, suggesting its potential role as spillover hosts in Iberian Mediterranean ecosystems. Additional studies are warranted to determine the clinical impact of L. infantum exposure in this threatened species.

Projecting future excess deaths associated with extreme precipitation events in China under changing climate: an integrated modelling study

Climate-change-induced extreme precipitation events have attracted global attention; however, the associated excess deaths burden has been insufficiently explored and remains unclear. We first defined an extreme precipitation event for each county when the daily total precipitation exceeded the county-specific 99·5th percentile of the daily precipitation from 1986 to 2005; then we estimated the associations between extreme precipitation events and cause-specific deaths in 280 Chinese counties using a two-stage time-series model. Second, we projected the excess deaths related to extreme precipitation events by combining the bias-corrected multi-model precipitation predictions derived under different combined emission-population scenarios of three representative concentration pathways (RCPs; RCP2·6, RCP4·5, and RCP8·5) and three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2, a business-as-usual scenario) populations (S1, low fertility rate; S2, medium fertility rate; and S3, high fertility rate). We quantified the climate and population contributions to the changes of future excess deaths nationwide and by climatic zones. Compared with the non-extreme precipitation days, the percentage increase of deaths associated with exposure to extreme precipitation days is 13·0% (95% CI 7·0-19·3) for accidental cause, 4·3% (2·0-6·6) for circulatory disease, and 6·8% (2·8-10·9) for respiratory disease. The number of annual average excess deaths related to extreme precipitation events during 1986-2005 was 2644 (95% CI 1496-3730) for accidental cause, 69 (33-105) for circulatory disease, and 181 (79-279) for respiratory disease. In the 2030s, the total number of excess deaths of these three causes will increase by 1244 (43%), 1756 (61%), and 2008 (69%) under RCP2·6, RCP4·5, and RCP8·5 scenarios combined with a medium-fertility-rate population (SSP2-S2), respectively, but will decrease by 3% under RCP2·6-SSP2-S2 and increase by 25% under RCP8·5-SSP2-S2 in the 2090s. Humid and water-limited regions in subtropical, middle-temperate, and plateau climate zones will face highly increased risks. Climate and population factors contributed disproportionally among the five climate zones. This study is the largest integrated projection exploring the disease burden associated with extreme precipitation events. The excess deaths will be amplified by climate and population changes. Improving mitigation and adaptation capacities is crucial when responding to precipitation extremes. National Natural Science Foundation of China and Wellcome Trust.

Analysis of carbon emission characteristics and establishment of prediction models for residential and office buildings in China

Intensifying environmental issues make carbon reduction crucial, especially in the construction industry. Embodied carbon emissions (ECE) in buildings characteristically involve concentrated, intensive emissions over a short period. Implementing energy-saving and carbon-reducing technologies has raised ECE rates. Therefore, analyzing carbon emission (CE) characteristics during the production and construction phases is necessary. Currently, essential data on ECE is lacking, the calculation methods are complex, and ECE's characteristics and influential factors in residential and office buildings remain unclear. Moreover, there is a lack of prediction models for ECE in the construction phase that apply to current construction methods and CE factors. The research on prediction models for ECE has primarily focused on the production phase but has paid little attention to the contribution of non-structural materials to embodied carbon (EC). In this study, reinforced concrete residential and office buildings in hot summer and cold winter regions (located in the southeast part of mainland China, with a subtropical monsoon climate) were considered typical types, and the CE characteristics of two main phases, the production and construction phases, were analyzed. Based on critical features, such as the number of floors and the basement, prediction models for ECE in residential and office buildings were established at the design stage. The models were validated with mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values below 4%, and coefficient of variation (root mean square error) (CV [RMSE]) values less than 0.02. The prediction models enabled a rapid estimation of ECE, encouraging designers to consider EC in the early design stages.

Heat Stress Metrics, Trends, and Extremes in the Southeastern United States

Abstract Humid heat and associated heat stress have increased in frequency, intensity, and duration across the globe, particularly at lower latitudes. One of the more robust metrics for heat stress impacts on the human body is wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), because it incorporates temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation. WBGT can typically only be measured using nonstandard instrumentation (e.g., black globe thermometers). However, estimation formulas have been developed to calculate WBGT using standard surface meteorological variables. This study evaluates several WBGT estimation formulas for the southeastern United States using North Carolina Environment and Climate Observing Network (ECONet) and U.S. Military measurement campaign data as verification. The estimation algorithm with the smallest mean absolute error was subsequently chosen to evaluate summer WBGT trends and extremes at 39 ASOS stations with long continuous (1950–2023) data records. Trend results showed that summer WBGT has increased throughout much of the southeastern United States, with larger increases at night than during the day. Although there were some surprisingly large WBGT trends at higher elevation locations far from coastlines, the greatest increases were predominantly located in the Florida Peninsula and Louisiana. Increases in the intensity and frequency of extreme (90th percentile) WBGTs were particularly stark in large coastal urban centers (e.g., New Orleans, Tampa, and Miami). Some locations like New Orleans and Tampa have experienced more than two additional extreme heat stress days and nights per decade since 1950, with an exponential escalation in the number of extreme summer nights during the most recent decade. Significance Statement Humid heat and associated heat stress pose threats to health in the moist subtropical climate of the southeastern United States. Wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is a robust metric for heat stress but must be estimated using complex algorithms. We first evaluated the accuracy of three WBGT algorithms in the southeastern United States, using measured verification data. Subsequently, we used the most accurate algorithm to investigate WBGT trends and extremes since 1950 in 39 cities. Results showed that summer heat stress has increased throughout the region, especially at night. Increases in the intensity and frequency of extreme heat stress were most prevalent at urban coastal locations in Florida and Louisiana, emphasizing the impacts of increased urbanization and evaporation on heat stress.

Early Eocene Metasequoia and Taxodium (Cupressaceae) from Lingbao, Henan Province and their implication for a perhumid climate in central China

In this study, fossil leaves of Metasequoia Hu and Cheng, along with leaves and cones of Taxodium Richard, from the lower Eocene of the Xiangcheng Group in Lingbao, Henan Province, central China, were examined. These fossils have been taxonomically assigned to Metasequoia sp. (cf. M. glyptostroboides Hu and Cheng) and Taxodium dubium (Sternberg) Heer. The closest modern relatives are Metasequoia glyptostroboides and Taxodium distichum (Linnaeus) Richard, which typically thrive in humid environments, indicating that similar conditions may have prevailed in early Eocene. Through the Species Distribution Model (SDM) experiment, it was suggested that T. distichum is significantly influenced by precipitation levels, highlighting the importance of moisture in their historical distribution. Moreover, the analysis of the survival environments of native Metasequoia and Taxodium indicates that the annual precipitation in Lingbao during the early Eocene exceeded 1000 mm, which is roughly double the current annual precipitation in the area. This precipitation level is comparable to the present-day subtropical climate zone. During the late Eocene and early Oligocene, the seasonal variation in precipitation was intensified due to the strengthening of the East Asian monsoon, which constrained the seed germination and seedling survival. This may have contributed to the decline in the populations of Metasequoia and Taxodium in East Asia during that period.