Subnational Inequalities Research Articles

Analyzing regional economic development from the perspective of sustainability using hybridized algorithm

Regional economic development objectives are improved economic, political, and social conditions in a certain area. Investment, production, innovation, wealth, and affluence are the four stages of regional economic development that may be identified in each selected area. It becomes more reliant on technological advancements in the industry and less on locally sourced production inputs as the economy region grows. The regional economic growth issue is inequality in the rates of improvement of subnational geographic regions and inequalities in the distribution of wealth. Intellectual algorithms or enhanced and hybrid algorithms based on machine learning, such as Fuzzy C-means clustering (FCM), principal component analysis, and algorithm, can newly achieve more appropriate solutions to practical issues of discrete, non-linear, non-differentiable, and various constraints. A hybrid algorithm combines two or more other algorithms that solve the same problem. Hence, this paper proposes a Principal Component Analysis for the Sustainable Regional Economic Development (PCA-SRED) model to enhance the efficiency in examining regional economic changes and industrial development zones. The data are taken from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) regional statistics dataset. Using PCA, industries may be categorized based on shared criteria, and the whole spatial distribution law of datasets and common patterns can be uncovered. To create a long-lasting regional economic development plan, it is crucial to categorize, compare, and evaluate the economic growth level of several areas. The research outcomes illustrate that the hybrid algorithms have high accuracy and a fast convergence rate because they can replicate the smart behavior of some clusters in nature while examing the variances in regional economic growth. The experimental outcomes illustrate that the recommended PCA-SRED model enhances the accuracy ratio by 98.2%, industry production ratio by 95.6%, regional economic change prediction ratio by 96.4%, and economic efficiency ratio by 97.8% compared to other popular models.

Subnational inequalities in years of life lost and associations with socioeconomic factors in pre-pandemic Europe, 2009–19: an ecological study

Health inequalities have been associated with shorter lifespans. We aimed to investigate subnational geographical inequalities in all-cause years of life lost (YLLs) and the association between YLLs and socioeconomic factors, such as household income, risk of poverty, and educational attainment, in countries within the European Economic Area (EEA) before the COVID-19 pandemic. In this ecological study, we extracted demographic and socioeconomic data from Eurostat for 1390 small regions and 285 basic regions for 32 countries in the EEA, which was complemented by a time-trend analysis of subnational regions within the EEA. Age-standardised YLL rates per 100 000 population were estimated from 2009 to 2019 based on methods from the Global Burden of Disease study. Geographical inequalities were assessed using the Gini coefficient and slope index of inequality. Socioeconomic inequalities were assessed by investigating the association between socioeconomic factors (educational attainment, household income, and risk of poverty) and YLLs in 2019 using negative binomial mixed models. Between Jan 1, 2009, and Dec 31, 2019, YLLs lowered in almost all subnational regions. The Gini coefficient of YLLs across all EEA regions was 14·2% (95% CI 13·6-14·8) for females and 17·0% (16·3 to 17·7) for males. Relative geographical inequalities in YLLs among women were highest in the UK (Gini coefficient 11·2% [95% CI 10·1-12·3]) and among men were highest in Belgium (10·8% [9·3-12·2]). The highest YLLs were observed in subnational regions with the lowest levels of educational attainment (incident rate ratio [IRR] 1·19 [1·13-1·26] for females; 1·22 [1·16-1·28] for males), household income (1·35 [95% CI 1·19-1·53]), and the highest poverty risk (1·25 [1·18-1·34]). Differences in YLLs remain within, and between, EEA countries and are associated with socioeconomic factors. This evidence can assist stakeholders in addressing health inequities to improve overall disease burden within the EEA. Research Council of Norway; Development, and Innovation Fund of Hungary; Norwegian Institute of Public Medicine; and COST Action 18218 European Burden of Disease Network.

Subnational inequalities in YLLs and associated socioeconomic factors: a disease burden study

Abstract Background Health inequalities are an unjust and avoidable problem. This study examines subnational geographical inequalities in all-cause years of life lost (YLLs) and the association of socioeconomic factors in pre-coronavirus European Economic Area (EEA) countries. Methods In this ecological study complimented with a longitudinal analysis, demographic and socioeconomic data for 1390 small regions and 285 basic regions of 32 EEA countries were extracted from Eurostat. Age-standardised YLL rates per 100,000 population were estimated from 2009 to 2019 based on methods from the Global Burden of Disease Study. Inequalities were assessed using the Gini coefficient (GC) and slope index of inequality (SII). The association between socioeconomic factors by YLLs were assessed using negative binomial mixed models in 2019. Findings Over the period 2009-2019, YLLs have decreased in almost all subnational regions. The GC of YLLs across EEA regions was 14% for females (95% CI = 13·5 to 14·6%) and 17% for males (CI = 16·1 to 17·5%). Greece (GC = 10·1%, CI = 7·8 to 2·5%) and Belgium (GC = 10·8%, CI = 9·5 to 12·0%) had the highest relative inequalities in YLLs for women and men, respectively. Subnational regions with the lowest income (incident rate ratio (IRR)=1·39, CI = 1·23 to 1·58) and levels of educational attainment (IRRfemales=1·19, CI = 1·13 to 1·26; IRRmales=1·22, CI = 1·16 to 1·28), and highest poverty risk (IRR=1·18, CI = 1·12 to 1·25) were associated with increased YLLs, with stronger associations observed in Central and Eastern Europe. Interpretation Differences in YLLs remain within and between EEA countries and are associated with socioeconomic factors. This evidence can assist stakeholders in addressing specific health inequities to improve overall disease burden within the EEA. Key messages • The study highlights the need for public health policies targeted at the subnational level to reduce health inequalities in the EEA. • The study describes the effect of existing public health policies targeting socioeconomic factors.

Spatial Clustering in Temporal Trends of Female Genital Mutilation Risk: Leveraging Sparse Data in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia.

Female genital mutilation (FGM) is a harmful practice rooted in gender inequality. Its elimination is part of national and international agendas including the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations. Understanding its geographical evolution is crucial for targeted programming. However, due to sparse data, it is challenging to establish international comparability and statistical reliability. Data on FGM is observed at different points in time and periodicity across countries and in contexts with varying age-risk patterns, all of which can be a source of inaccurate and biased estimates. We perform an exemplary analysis, drawing on survival and complex survey analysis in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia. This novel approach addresses measurement challenges specific to FGM data and produces an internationally comparable indicator-the probability of not experiencing FGM by age 20. We pinpoint the onset of statistically significant FGM decline at the subnational level from cohorts born in the 1970s until the 1990s. In the same period, we observe no decline in FGM risk across regions clustered around international borders and increasing subnational inequalities within countries. Our methods thus provide crucial insights into the geographical pattern of temporal trends in FGM risk.

Regional inequalities and transnational solidarity in the European Union

Amid the eurocrisis, scholars and policy makers sought to establish an EU-wide layer of social policy, aiming to ensure common standards through the EU and to provide a degree of common social protection. While public support for European social policy has been extensively studied, we don't know how regional (i.e., subnational) inequalities relate to preferences for European social policy. We analyse the effect of regional differences in socio-economic and institutional contexts on public preferences for European social policy in general and support for European unemployment insurance in particular. Combining original survey data collected in 2018 in 12 European countries with regional-level economic and political indicators, we find that regional-level self-interest impacts individual preferences but that the effect is not always clear-cut. Contrary to expectations, people in richer regions are more supportive of EU social policy than people in poorer regions, while citizens of politically more autonomous regions tend to have a generally more positive view of EU social policy. A conjoint experiment on support for different policy variants of European unemployment insurance sheds light on these counterintuitive findings: Citizens in richer regions are indeed more supportive of EU-level social policy, but only when it has limited redistributive implications and instead affects standards; conversely citizens in poorer regions are willing to forego their opposition to EU social policy for redistributive programs.

Assessing Potential Exemplars in Reducing Zero-Dose Children: A Novel Approach for Identifying Positive Outliers in Decreasing National Levels and Geographic Inequalities in Unvaccinated Children.

Understanding past successes in reaching unvaccinated or "zero-dose" children can help inform strategies for improving childhood immunization in other settings. Drawing from positive outlier methods, we developed a novel approach for identifying potential exemplars in reducing zero-dose children. Focusing on 2000-2019, we assessed changes in the percentage of under-one children with no doses of the diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine (no-DTP) across two geographic dimensions in 56 low- or lower-middle-income countries: (1) national levels; (2) subnational gaps, as defined as the difference between the 5th and 95th percentiles of no-DTP prevalence across second administrative units. Countries with the largest reductions for both metrics were considered positive outliers or potential 'exemplars', demonstrating exception progress in reducing national no-DTP prevalence and subnational inequalities. Last, so-called "neighborhood analyses" were conducted for the Gavi Learning Hub countries (Nigeria, Mali, Uganda, and Bangladesh), comparing them with countries that had similar no-DTP measures in 2000 but different trajectories through 2019. From 2000 to 2019, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, and India had the largest absolute decreases for the two no-DTP dimensions-national prevalence and subnational gaps-while Bangladesh and Burundi registered the largest relative reductions for each no-DTP metric. Neighborhood analyses highlighted possible opportunities for cross-country learning among Gavi Learning Hub countries and potential exemplars in reducing zero-dose children. Identifying where exceptional progress has occurred is the first step toward better understanding how such gains could be achieved elsewhere. Further examination of how countries have successfully reduced levels of zero-dose children-especially across variable contexts and different drivers of inequality-could support faster, sustainable advances toward greater vaccination equity worldwide.

Desigualdades territoriais no financiamento das políticas de educação e de saúde na Espanha e no Brasil

Abstract The article compares the patterns and territorial inequalities in the funding of two social policies that are pillars of the welfare state and present a high degree of territorial decentralization in Spain and Brazil: education and health. The analysis uses specialist literature, national legislation and government documents to describe the policies and their financing mechanisms. Fiscal data are used to analyze subnational government inequalities in the funding of education and health in both countries. The conclusion is that the Spanish experience has significantly leveled spending on health and education between the autonomous communities of common regime, with lower levels of inequality than those observed in Brazilian states and municipalities. The Spanish result derives from an incremental process of improvement of the country’s fiscal federalism, which culminated in a model marked by prioritization and territorial solidarity in the funding of social policies. This model is reference for the analysis and discussion of the Brazilian case, which has configured its fiscal federalism with little concern for reconciling efficiency and equity in the distribution of resources between subnational governments, but which has presented important advances in the reforms of education and health funding.

An Iterative, Participatory Approach to Developing a Neighborhood-Level Indicator System of Health and Wellbeing.

Despite increased awareness of the essential role of neighborhood characteristics for residents' health and wellbeing, the development of neighborhood-level indicator systems has received relatively little attention to date. To address this gap, we describe the participatory development process of a small-area indicator system that includes information on local health needs in a pilot neighborhood in the German city of Mannheim. To identify relevant indicators, we partnered with representatives of the city's public health department and used an iterative approach that included multiple Plan-Do-Check-Act cycles with ongoing feedback from local key stakeholders. The described process resulted in a web-based indicator system with a total of 86 indicators. Additionally, 123 indicators were perceived as relevant by stakeholders but could not be included due to data unavailability. Overall, stakeholders evaluated the participatory approach as useful. Even though the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and the lack of some data elements hindered instrument development, close collaboration with public health partners facilitated the process. To identify and target sub-national health inequalities, we encourage local public health stakeholders to develop meaningful and useful neighborhood-level indicator systems, building on our experiences from the applied development process and considering identified barriers and facilitators.

Mapping development and health effects of cooking with solid fuels in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–18: a geospatial modelling study

More than 3 billion people do not have access to clean energy and primarily use solid fuels to cook. Use of solid fuels generates household air pollution, which was associated with more than 2 million deaths in 2019. Although local patterns in cooking vary systematically, subnational trends in use of solid fuels have yet to be comprehensively analysed. We estimated the prevalence of solid-fuel use with high spatial resolution to explore subnational inequalities, assess local progress, and assess the effects on health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) without universal access to clean fuels. We did a geospatial modelling study to map the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking at a 5 km × 5 km resolution in 98 LMICs based on 2·1 million household observations of the primary cooking fuel used from 663 population-based household surveys over the years 2000 to 2018. We use observed temporal patterns to forecast household air pollution in 2030 and to assess the probability of attaining the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target indicator for clean cooking. We aligned our estimates of household air pollution to geospatial estimates of ambient air pollution to establish the risk transition occurring in LMICs. Finally, we quantified the effect of residual primary solid-fuel use for cooking on child health by doing a counterfactual risk assessment to estimate the proportion of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections in children younger than 5 years that could be associated with household air pollution. Although primary reliance on solid-fuel use for cooking has declined globally, it remains widespread. 593 million people live in districts where the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking exceeds 95%. 66% of people in LMICs live in districts that are not on track to meet the SDG target for universal access to clean energy by 2030. Household air pollution continues to be a major contributor to particulate exposure in LMICs, and rising ambient air pollution is undermining potential gains from reductions in the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking in many countries. We estimated that, in 2018, 205 000 (95% uncertainty interval 147 000-257 000) children younger than 5 years died from lower respiratory tract infections that could be attributed to household air pollution. Efforts to accelerate the adoption of clean cooking fuels need to be substantially increased and recalibrated to account for subnational inequalities, because there are substantial opportunities to improve air quality and avert child mortality associated with household air pollution. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Inequal distribution of nursing personnel: a subnational analysis of the distribution of nurses across 58 countries

BackgroundNursing personnel are critical for enabling access to health service in primary health care. However, the State of the World’s Nursing 2020 report showed important inequalities in nurse availability between countries.MethodsThe purpose of this study/analysis was to describe the differences in nurse-to-population density in 58 countries from six regional areas and the relationship between differences in access to nurses and other indicators of health equity.ResultsAll countries and income groups showed subnational inequalities in the distribution of nursing personnel with Gini coefficients ranging from 1 to 39. The latter indicated situation such as 13% of the population having access to 45% of nurses in a country. The average max-to-min ratio was on average of 11-fold. In our sample, the African region had the highest level of subnational inequalities with the average Gini coefficient of 19.6. The European Region had the lowest level of within-country inequalities with the average Gini coefficient being 5.6. A multivariate analysis showed a clustering of countries in three groups: (1) high Gini coefficients comprised mainly African countries; (2) moderate Gini coefficients comprised mainly South-East Asian, Central and South American countries; (3) low Gini coefficients comprised mainly Western countries, Japan, and Korea. The analysis also showed that inequality in distribution of nurses was correlated with other indices of health and inequality such as the Human Development Index, maternal mortality, and life expectancy.ConclusionsThis study showed that there is a high level of geographic inequality in the distribution of nurses at subnational level. Inequalities in nursing distribution are multifactorial, to improve access to nurses, policies should be bundled, tailored to the local context and tackle the various root causes for inequalities.

Subnational inequalities in diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis immunization in 24 countries in the African Region.

ObjectiveTo analyse subnational inequality in diphtheria–tetanus–pertussis (DTP) immunization dropout in 24 African countries using administrative data on receipt of the first and third vaccine doses (DTP1 and DTP3, respectively) collected by the Joint Reporting Process of the World Health Organization and the United Nations Children’s Fund.MethodsDistricts in each country were grouped into quintiles according to the proportion of children who dropped out between DTP1 and DTP3 (i.e. the dropout rate). We used six summary measures to quantify inequalities in dropout rates between districts and compared rates with national dropout rates and DTP1 and DTP3 immunization coverage.FindingsThe median dropout rate across countries was 2.4% in quintiles with the lowest rate and 14.6% in quintiles with the highest rate. In eight countries, the difference between the highest and lowest quintiles was 14.9 percentage points or more. In most countries, underperforming districts in the quintile with the highest rate tended to lag disproportionately behind the others. This divergence was not evident from looking only at national dropout rates. Countries with the largest inequalities in absolute subnational dropout rate tended to have lower estimated national DTP1 and DTP3 immunization coverage.ConclusionThere were marked inequalities in DTP immunization dropout rates between districts in most countries studied. Monitoring dropout at the subnational level could help guide immunization interventions that address inequalities in underserved areas, thereby improving overall DTP3 coverage. The quality of administrative data should be improved to ensure accurate and timely assessment of geographical inequalities in immunization.

Centralization and Subnational Capacity: The Struggle to Make Federalism Work Equitably in Public Education

Vast disparities between and within American states’ responses to the COVID-19 pandemic have evoked renewed attention to whether greater centralization might enhance investments in subnational capacity and remedy subnational inequalities or instead erode subnational organizational capacity. Developments in American public education (1997–2015) offer perspective on this puzzle, which we examine by applying interrupted time series analysis to a novel dataset to assess the implications of centralization on subnational investments in administrative and technical capacity, two dimensions of organizational capacity. We find simultaneous subnational erosion in administrative capacity and growth in technical capacity following centralization, both of which appear concentrated in low-poverty areas despite centralization’s explicit antipoverty purposes. Public education reforms highlight both the challenge of dismantling subnational inequality through centralization and the need for future research on policy designs that enable centralization to yield subnational capacity that is able to remedy inequality.

Observed magnitude and trends in socioeconomic and geographic area inequalities in obesity prevalence among non-pregnant women in Chad: evidence from three waves of Chad demographic and health surveys

BackgroundWhile the prevalence of obesity is increasing worldwide, the growing rates of overweight and obesity in developing countries are disquieting. Obesity is widely recognized as a risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including diabetes, cancer and cardiovascular diseases. Available evidence on whether obesity has been more prevalent among higher or lower socioeconomic groups, across regions and urban-rural women’s are inconsistent. This study examined magnitude of and trends in socioeconomic, urban-rural and sub-national region inequalities in obesity prevalence among non-pregnant women in Chad.MethodUsing cross-sectional data from Chad Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs) conducted in 1996, 2004 and 2014; we used the World Health Organization (WHO) Health Equity Assessment Toolkit (HEAT) to analyze socio-economic, urban-rural and regional inequalities in obesity prevalence among non-pregnant women aged 15–49 years. Inequalities were assessed using four equity stratifiers namely wealth index, educational level, place of residence and subnational region. We presented inequalities using simple and complex as well as relative and absolute summary measures such as Difference (D), Population Attributable Risk (PAR), Population Attributable Fraction (PAF) and Ratio (R).ResultsThough constant pattern overtime, both wealth-driven and place of residence inequality were observed in all three surveys by Difference measure and in the first and last surveys by Ratio measure. Similarly, including the recent survey (D = -2.80, 95% CI:-4.15, − 1.45, R = 0.37, 95% CI: 0.23, 0.50) absolute (in 1996 & 2014 survey) and relative (in all three surveys) educational status inequality with constant pattern were observed. Substantial absolute (PAR = -2.2, 95% CI: − 3.21, − 1.34) and relative (PAF = − 91.9, 95% CI: − 129.58, − 54.29) regional inequality was observed with increasing and constant pattern by simple (D) and complex (PAR, PAF) measures.ConclusionThe study showed socioeconomic and area-based obesity inequalities that disfavored women in higher socioeconomic status and residing in urban areas. Prevention of obesity prevalence should be government and stakeholders’ priority through organizing the evidence, health promotion and prevention interventions for at risk population and general population.

Mapping inequalities in exclusive breastfeeding in low- and middle-income countries, 2000\u20132018

Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF)—giving infants only breast-milk for the first 6 months of life—is a component of optimal breastfeeding practices effective in preventing child morbidity and mortality. EBF practices are known to vary by population and comparable subnational estimates of prevalence and progress across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are required for planning policy and interventions. Here we present a geospatial analysis of EBF prevalence estimates from 2000 to 2018 across 94 LMICs mapped to policy-relevant administrative units (for example, districts), quantify subnational inequalities and their changes over time, and estimate probabilities of meeting the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) of ≥70% EBF prevalence by 2030. While six LMICs are projected to meet the WHO GNT of ≥70% EBF prevalence at a national scale, only three are predicted to meet the target in all their district-level units by 2030.

National and subnational coverage and inequalities in reproductive, maternal, newborn, child, and sanitary health interventions in Ecuador: a comparative study between 1994 and 2012

BackgroundLatin America (LA) has experienced constant economic and political crises that coincide with periods of greater inequality. Between 1996 and 2007 Ecuador went through one of the greatest political and socio-economic crises in Latin America, a product of neo-liberal economic growth strategies. Between 2007 and 2012 it regained political stability, promoted redistributive policies, and initiated greater social spending. To understand the possible influence on the political and economic context, we analyzed the coverage and inequalities in five Reproductive, Maternal, and Child Health (RMNCH) and two water and sanitation interventions using survey data from a broad time window (1994–2012), at a national and subnational level.MethodsThe series cross-sectional study used data from four representative national health surveys (1994, 1999, 2004 and 2012). Coverage of RMNCH and sanitary interventions were stratified by wealth quintiles (as a measure of the socio-economic level), urban-rural residence and the coverage for each province was mapped. Mean difference, Theil index and Variance-weighted least squares regression were calculated to indicate subnational and temporal changes.ResultsFrom 1994 to 2004, Ecuador evidenced large inequalities whose reduction becomes more evident in 2012. Coverage in RMNCH health service-related interventions showed a rather unequal distribution among the socioeconomic status and across provinces in 1994 and 2004, compared to 2012. Sanitary interventions on the contrary, showed the most unequal interventions, and failed to improve or even worsened in several provinces. While there is a temporary improvement also at the subnational level, in 2012 several provinces maintain low levels of coverage.ConclusionsThe remarkable reduction of inequalities in coverage of RMNCH interventions in 2012 clearly coincides with periods of regained political stability, promoted redistributive policies, and greater social spending, different from the former neo-liberal reforms which is consistent with observations made in other Latin American countries. Territorial heterogeneity and great inequalities specially related with sanitation interventions persists. It is necessary to obtain high quality information with sharper geographic desegregation that allows to identify and understand local changes over time. This would help to prioritize intervention strategies, introduce multisectoral policies and investments that support local governments.

Advances and challenges on the path toward the SDGs: subnational inequalities in Mexico, 1990–2017

BackgroundThe sustainable development goals (SDGs) have generated momentum for global health, aligning efforts from governments and international organisations toward a set of goals that are expected to reflect improvements in...

Subnational inequalities of early marriage and fertility among Chinese females from 1990 to 2010

To analyze the inequality of early marriage and adolescent fertility with respect to local economic development among Chinese females aged 15-19 years from 1990 to 2010. Aggregated data were extracted from the Chinese National Census from 1990 to 2010. We calculated the ever-married rate and fertility rate of female adolescents aged 15-19 years. Using gross domestic product (GDP) per capita as an indicator for socio-economic status of a province, we calculated the slope index of inequality (SII) and the concentration index (CI) to analyze the subnational inequalities of early marriage and adolescent fertility. Weighted linear regression models were also established to assess the associations between GDP per capita and the ever-married rate/fertility rate. The ever-married rate for Chinese female adolescents aged 15-19 years decreased from 4.7% in 1990 to 1.2% in 2000, and rebounded to 2.1% in 2010. From 1990 to 2000, the fertility rate decreased from 22.0 per 1 000 to 6.0 per 1 000, and further decreased to 5.9 per 1 000 in 2010. In 1990, the socio-economic inequalities of the ever-married rate and fertility rate for female adolescents aged 15-19 years were not statistically significant (P for SII or CI>0.05). The values of SII revealed that, in 2000 and 2010, female adolescents with the lowest GDP per capita had an ever-married rate 2.4% (95%CI: 0.4-4.4) and 2.3% (95%CI: 0.3-4.2) higher than those with the highest GDP per capita, respectively. In the meantime, in 2000 and 2010, female adolescents with the lowest GDP per capita had a fertility rate 12.9 per 1 000 (95%CI: 5.4-20.5) and 9.3 per 1 000 (95%CI: 4.6-14.0) higher than those with the highest, respectively. In 2000 and 2010, the CIs for marriage were -0.32 (P=0.02) and -0.17 (P=0.03), respectively, and the CIs for childbirth were -0.37 (P<0.01) and -0.26 (P<0.01), respectively. In 2000, the ever-married rate and the fertility rate were estimated to increase by 1.4% (95%CI: 0.1-2.7) and 7.9 per 1 000 (95%CI: 2.9-12.8) with 100% increase in GDP per capita, respectively; in 2010, the numbers were 1.5% (95%CI: 0.1-2.9) and 6.7 per 1 000 (95%CI: 3.2-10.1), respectively. Subnational socio-economic inequality of early marriage and adolescent fertility existed in 2000 and 2010. Female adolescents residing in less-developed areas were more likely to engage in early marriage and childbirth. Reducing income inequality and increasing education investment for poverty-stricken areas seem to be effective measures to reduce this inequality.

Ravenstein Revisited: The Analysis of Migration, Then and Now

In 1876, 1885 and 1889, Ernst Ravenstein, an Anglo-German geographer, published papers on internal and international migration in Britain, Europe and North America. He generalized his findings as “laws of migration”, which have informed subsequent migration research. This paper aims to compare Ravenstein’s approach to investigating migration with how researchers have studied the phenomenon more recently. Ravenstein used lifetime migrant tables for counties from the 1871 and 1881 censuses of the British Isles. Data on lifetime migrants are still routinely collected but, because of the indeterminate time interval, they are rarely used to study internal migration. Today, internal migration measures from alternative sources are used to measure internal migration: fixed interval migrant data from censuses and surveys, continuous records of migrations from registers, and “big data” from telecommunications and internet companies.&#x0D; Ravenstein described and mapped county-level lifetime migration patterns, using the concepts of “absorption” and “dispersion”, using migration rates and net balances. Recently, researchers have used lifetime migrant stocks from consecutive censuses to estimate country to country flows for the world. In the last decade, an Australian-led team has built an international database of internal migration flow data and summary measures. Methods were developed to investigate the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP), in order to design summary internal migration measures comparable across countries. Indicators of internal migration were produced for countries covering 80 percent of the world’s population.&#x0D; Ravenstein observed that most migrants moved only short distances, anticipating the development of “gravity” models of migration. Recent studies calibrated the relationship between migration and distance, using gravity models. For mid-19th century Britain, Ravenstein found the dominant direction of internal migration to be towards the “centres of commerce and industry”. Urbanization is still the dominant flow direction in most countries, though, late in the process, suburbanization, counter-urbanization and re-urbanization can occur. Ravenstein focussed on place-specific migration, whereas today researchers describe migration flows using area typologies, seeking spatial generality. Ravenstein said little about migrant attributes except that women migrated more than men. In recent decades, the behaviour of migrants by age, sex, education, ethnicity, social class and partnership status have been studied intensively, using microdata from censuses and surveys.&#x0D; Knowledge about processes influencing internal and international migration has rarely been built into demographic projections. Scenarios that link migration with sub-national or national inequalities and with climate or environmental change are influencing the design of policies to reduce inequalities or slow global warming.&#x0D; * This article belongs to a special issue on “Internal Migration as a Driver of Regional Population Change in Europe: Updating Ravenstein”.

Inequality in access to improved drinking water sources and childhood diarrhoea in low- and middle-income countries.

In addition to the conventional wisdom of categorizing countries based on nationally-averaged coverage in access to improved drinking water sources (IDWS), this study incorporated sub-national inequality into a novel categorisation framework. The association between access to IDWS and the incidence of childhood diarrhoea (ICD) was also quantified. Information from 1.63 million households obtained through nationally representative and cross-sectional demographic and health survey (DHS) and multiple indicator cluster survey (MICS) from 81 countries were analysed. Sub-national inequalities in the access to IDWS were measured using proportional variability (PV). Most studied countries with low coverage and high inequalities in accessing IDWS were from Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Wealth status of households showed a higher variability in the IDWS than the variability across locations. Significant negative associations between accessing IDWS and ICD were observed for regional models, except for SSA. This study adds knowledge towards understanding the state of sustainable development goal achievements in terms of accessing IDWS. The knowledge may be helpful in designing country-specific, achievable, short- and long-term strategies. The non-decisive relation between access to IDWS and ICD indicates the adoption of additional measures in the modelling mechanism.

The light of hope: focusing on shigella and ETEC infections

The light of hope: focusing on shigella and ETEC infections