Subjective Expectations Research Articles

Exploring Mental Models behind Self-rated Health and Subjective Life Expectancy through Web Probing

Self-rated health (SRH) and subjective life expectancy (SLE) are widely used for understanding health and predicting mortality. However, what these items measure remains unclear, due to the lack of conceptual frameworks. We administered a web survey across the United States, Great Britain, Germany, Spain, and Mexico. The questionnaire included SRH and SLE, each immediately followed by a question that probed respondents’ thought processes. We examined the relationship between SRH and SLE, the response difficulty, and attributes that respondents considered for forming responses. Overall, SRH and SLE were moderately related, eliciting different information and varying in difficulty. Compared to SLE, SRH was perceived as easier but covered a narrower information spectrum. While illness and health behaviors were dominant attributes of SRH responses, family longevity history, life situations, and lack of control were additionally considered for SLE. When combined, SRH and SLE may capture a fuller range of attributes germane to health and mortality.

Property valuation based on Choquet integral

The property valuation is classically challenged by the weighting of attributes and observed prices of properties. Modern approaches, using statistical potential, optimization, and rich data increased expectations for better results. Although the practitioners recognize that, they prefer accessible estimations with the convenience of interpreting them like in the sales comparison adjustment-grid. The weighting process is thus either weak in practice or complex in modeling culture. The challenge mainly originates from the incoherencies, sometimes significant, between the negotiated prices and the utility reward (contribution) of attributes. Economic agents take decisions under uncertainty, essentially influenced by their subjective expectations, capacity of evaluation and ability of using reliable information. Therefore, existing approaches suffer from properly addressing these issues of valuation. In this paper, we are motivated to improve these issues based on Choquet integral (CI) and fuzzy logic, well-known in Multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems. In comparison to the available classic (Adjustment-grid) and statistical approaches (like OLS regressions), the method we develop objectively and accurately weights the contribution of property attributes and the adjusted prices in market value estimations. Based on empirical experiments in case-by-case and mass valuation of single-family properties in Montreal (Canada), the results are encouraging and support its reliability.

ПРОФЕСІЙНА ІДЕНТИЧНІСТЬ ЯК НАУКОВА ПРОБЛЕМА

The article explores the problematic aspects of understanding professional identity as a scientific problem. The positions of scholars on the selected issues are analyzed and it is proved that identity has a certain structure, characteristics and is considered in the context of interaction of two components – personal and social, which are directly dependent on each other. It is determined that professional identity is an inter-integral concept, which reveals the interconnection of personal characteristics that provide orientation in the world of professions, make it possible to realize personal potential in professional activity, both future medical professionals and specialists in the field of public health. consequences of professional choice. It is pointed out that in our opinion, the uneven formation of professional identity of future specialists in medical specialties or public health is related to the age characteristics of the students of medical institutions of higher education and transformational changes in the emotional and volitional sphere of personality, where crisis and crisis occur. The necessity of conformity of the content of the Ukrainian higher medical education with the defined high world standards in forming the professional identity of future specialists of medical specialties and public health is substantiated. The importance of applying interdisciplinary integration in the preparation of future specialists in medical specialties and public health in higher education medical institutions as a guarantee of harmonization of the educational space in Ukraine is proved. The sources of professional identity formation are vocational education; personal potential; subjective expectations and opportunities for social prospects; public recognition of the subject's professionalism. The relevance of further research on the training of specialists in medical specialties and public health in higher education medical institutions on the basis of interdisciplinary integration and its influence on the formation of their professional identity is proved.

Consumption Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving

Using survey data from a representative sample of Dutch households, we estimate the strength of precautionary saving by eliciting subjective expectations on future consumption. Expected consumption risk is positively correlated with self-employment and income risk and negatively with age. We insert these subjective expectations (rather than consumption realizations, as in the existing literature) in an Euler equation for consumption and estimate the degree of prudence by associating expected consumption risk with expected consumption growth. Robust OLS and IV estimates indicate a coefficient of relative prudence of around 2. We obtain similar results via partial identification methods using weak assumptions.

Language Proficiency and Economic Incentives: The Case of Syrian Asylum Seekers in Germany

Using unique survey data on subjective expectation regarding the return to language proficiency for Syrian asylum seekers in Germany, this study finds evidence that the decision on language acquisition levels responds to economic incentives. This finding fills a gap in the existing literature on migrants’ language acquisition decision. In the German context, issuance of a future permanent residence permit is linked by law to the acquisition of certain language skills. The analysis shows that asylum seekers who expect a higher chance to obtain a permanent residence permit from being competent in German have a significantly higher language proficiency. An increases by 10 pp (0.5 standard deviation) of the expected return to language ability increases language proficiency scores by a 0.06 to 0.09 standard deviation.

US stock prices and recency-biased learning in the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis and its aftermath

This paper presents a consumption-based asset pricing model in which fluctuations in stock prices are driven by investors’ time-varying subjective expectations about the dividend process. In line with the empirical literature, investors display recency bias when revising their beliefs about the actual dividend process and recursively discount the precision of past observations. Recency-biased learning significantly improves the ability of the standard model to replicate the boom-and-bust episode on the US S&P 500 stock market in the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis and its aftermath, along with features of subjective expectations of stock returns documented in survey data.

Why do older workers with chronic health conditions prefer to retire early?

Backgroundolder workers experiencing chronic health conditions (CHCs) are more likely to retire early. The different pathways through which CHCs stimulate retirement preferences, however, remain largely unexplored.Objectivewe present a more comprehensive model in which we test the different pathways through which four specific CHCs—arthritis, cardiovascular disease, sleep disorders and psychological disorders—influence early retirement preferences. We hypothesize that the association between CHCs and early retirement preferences is differentially mediated by subjective life expectancy (SLE), perceived health-related work limitations (HRWL) and vitality.Methodswe collected data from 5,696 wage-employed older workers (60 to 64 years) in the Netherlands in 2015. Regression models were estimated to examine the associations between CHCs and early retirement preferences. Mediation analysis with the Karlson, Holm and Breen method was used to examine potential mediation pathways.ResultsSLE, HRWL and vitality mediated the association between CHCs and older workers’ early retirement preferences. The dominant mediator differed depending on the CHC. Severe HRWL predominantly guided the retirement preferences of older workers with arthritis and cardiovascular disease. Lower vitality mainly mediated retirement preferences of older workers with sleep and psychological disorders. Lower SLE was a significant mediation pathway for older workers with cardiovascular diseases.ConclusionsHRWL and vitality play a major role in determining retirement preferences of older workers experiencing CHCs. Since both mediators are modifiable, targeted interventions may not only extend older workers’ working lives, but also improve the quality of their working lives.

Subjective Expectations, Social Security Benefits, and the Optimal Path to Retirement

Americans face the challenges of retirement with varying degrees of preparation. Evidence indicates that that many individuals may not be making the best possible choices with respect to their Social Security and retirement savings. We assess the subjective expectations of non-retirees and find that they have sizable biases and uncertainty about future retirement benefits. This uncertainty and the level of subjective expectations can affect workers’ wealth accumulation and retirement readiness. We build on these observations and combine unique survey data with a life-cycle optimization model to measure the role of Social Security literacy, subjective expectations about retirement benefits, and behavioral traits as determinants of life-cycle savings decisions and welfare. The goal of this project is to better understand the role of retirement expectations as determinants of savings decisions and retirement income. We forecast future benefits and measure the bias in expectations. We find heterogeneity in the direction of the expectation bias: Men and those with low levels of uncertainty about retirement benefits are less likely to overestimate their future retirement benefits, hence are more likely to save more and reach retirement better prepared. We find that these biases in subjective expectations translate into suboptimal asset accumulation and welfare losses.

Is there adverse selection in the U.S. social security system?

Despite facing some of the same challenges as private insurance markets, little is known about the role of adverse selection in Old-Age Social Security. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, we perform the unused observables version of the positive correlation test, and find robust evidence that people who expect to live shorter lives both choose smaller annuities – by claiming benefits early – and are less costly to insure, implying adverse selection in the system. Results are consistent when using either subjective expectations or observed longevity. Decomposing the sources of adverse selection we find that health, demographics, occupation and financial information together account for much of the positive correlation between mortality and claiming. IV estimates help to rule out moral hazard.

Antecedents of Mobile Shopping Adoption in the Information Age

Nowadays, mobile shopping has gradually become a way of people’s daily consumption. Based on TAM, this paper constructs a theoretical framework model of influencing factors of consumers’ adoption of mobile shopping. Through empirical test, the following conclusions are drawn: (1) subjective norms and performance expectations positively influence perceived ease of use, rather than perceived usefulness; (2) perceived entertainment positively affect both perceived ease of usefulness and perceived ease of use; (3) perceived risk and perceived cost have no significant impact on perceived ease of use and perceived usefulness; (4) perceived ease of use and perceived usefulness positively affect consumers’ mobile shopping intention.

Stress and subjective life expectancy: Cross-sectional and longitudinal associations in early adolescence.

Using data from a longitudinal study, the present study employed a latent class mover-stayer analytical strategy to examine both the cross-sectional and longitudinal (+33 months) relationship between membership of stress classes, and subjective life expectancy. Participants were from 21 High schools in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Data were collected in the first year of High school (mean age=12.5 years), and at +33 months (fourth year, or school year 11). Sample 1 consisted of 1171 adolescents (40.82% females, 2.56% unreported) in Northern Ireland. Sample 2 consisted of 1059 adolescents (52.79% females, 1.32% unreported) in Scotland. Adolescents with the lowest levels of stress projected the highest subjective life expectancy scores. Longitudinal analyses were jumbled and not in keeping with cross-sectional results. More research may be needed on the trajectory of subjective life expectancy over time before it can be depended upon as a reliable outcome variable in adolescent development.

How do subjective life expectancies compare with mortality tables? Similarities and differences in three national samples

Abstract Estimates of personal longevity play a vital role in decisions relating to asset accumulation and decumulation. Subjective life expectancy (SLE) is a measure of individuals’ expectation of remaining years of life. Either explicitly or implicitly, it is a key determinant of consumption and savings behaviour, and may be guided by a person’s own health and health behaviours. The Gateway to Global Aging, a platform for the Health and Retirement Study’s (HRS) family of population surveys, provides harmonised longitudinal datasets for many countries, each based on individual survey responses from respondents aged 50 and above. In this paper, we analyse SLE three of these datasets: the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA), The Irish Longitudinal Study of Ageing (TILDA) and Healthy Ageing in Scotland (HAGIS). First, we focus on measurement of SLE, followed by the SLE differential – the discrepancy between SLE and mortality risk indicated by population life tables. One novel finding from our analysis is that the SLE differential is positive for Ireland and is negative for Scotland and England. This difference does not appear to be explained by differences of survey design or population characteristics.

From Cradle to Grave: How Childhood and Current Environments Impact Consumers’ Subjective Life Expectancy and Decision-Making

Abstract The age to which people expect to live likely drives many important consumer decisions. Yet we know surprisingly little about the antecedents and consequences of consumers’ subjective life expectancies. In the present work, we propose that subjective life expectancy is influenced by the combination of people’s childhood environment and their current environment. We find that people who grew up in poorer environments expected to have a shorter lifespan compared to people who grew up in richer environments when faced with a current stressor. We document that experiencing a stressor leads people from resource-poor childhoods to believe they will die sooner because they respond to stressors in a more pessimistic way. We further show that subjective life expectancy is an important psychological mechanism that directly contributes to multiple consumer decisions, including desire for long-term care insurance, decisions about retirement savings, and preference for long-term bonds. Overall, the present work opens future research avenues by showing how, why, and when subjective life expectancy influences consumer behavior.

Subjective Expectations for Health Service Use and Consequences for Health Insurance Behavior

I evaluate the accuracy of people's subjective probability expectations for using various health services. Subjective expectations closely reflect patterns of observed utilization, are predicted by the same covariates as observed utilization, and correlate with objective measures of risk. At the same time, observable characteristics like age and health are weakly predictive of service demand. Through a series of examples, I demonstrate how subjective expectations can provide new insights about health behavior, specifically in the areas of asymmetric information, moral hazard and estimating welfare attributable to private care. The findings support collecting subjective expectations about health services in household surveys for use in applied research.

The Real Effects of Mobile Money: Evidence from a Large-Scale Fintech Expansion

Mobile money services have rapidly expanded across emerging and developing economies and enabled new ways through which households and firms can conduct payments, save and send remittances. We explore how mobile money use can impact economic outcomes in India using granular data on transactions from Paytm, one of the largest mobile money service provider in India with over 400 million users. We exploit the period around the demonetization policy, which prompted a surge in mobile money adoption, and analyze how mobile money affects traditional risk-sharing arrangements. Our main finding is that mobile money use increases the resilience to shocks by dampening the impact of rainfall shocks on nightlights-based economic activity and household consumption. We complement these findings by conducting a firm survey around a phased targeting intervention which incentivized firms to adopt the mobile payment technology. Our results suggest that firms adopting mobile payments improved their sales after six-months of use, compared to other firms. We also elicit firms' subjective expectations on future sales and find mobile payment adoption to be associated with lower subjective uncertainty and greater sales optimism.

Betting on the House: Subjective Expectations and Market Choices

Betting on the House: Subjective Expectations and Market Choices

Betting on the House: Subjective Expectations and Market Choices

Home price expectations play a central role in macroeconomics and finance. However, there is little direct evidence on how these expectations affect market choices. We provide the first experimental evidence based on a large-scale, high-stakes field experiment in the United States. We provided information by mail to 57,910 homeowners who recently listed their homes on the market. Collectively, these homes were worth $34 billion dollars. We randomized the information contained in the mailing to create non-deceptive, exogenous variation in the subjects’ home price expectations. We then used rich administrative data to measure the effects of these information shocks on the subject’s market choices. We find that, consistent with economic theory, higher home price expectations caused the subjects to delay selling their homes. These effects are statistically highly significant, economically large in magnitude, and robust to a number of sharp checks. Our results indicate that market choices are highly elastic to expectations: a 1 percentage point increase in home price expectations reduced the probability of selling within six months by 2.45 percentage points. Moreover, we provide evidence that this behavioral elasticity would be even higher if it were not for the presence of optimization frictions. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Survival Pessimism and the Demand for Annuities

Abstract The “annuity puzzle” refers to the fact that annuities are rarely purchased despite the longevity insurance they provide. Most explanations for this puzzle assume that individuals have accurate expectations about their future survival. We provide evidence that individuals misperceive their mortality risk, and study the demand for annuities in a setting where annuities are priced by insurers on the basis of objectively-measured survival probabilities but in which individuals make purchasing decisions based on their own subjective survival probabilities. Subjective expectations have the capacity to explain significant rates of non-annuitization, yielding a quantitatively important explanation for the annuity puzzle.

Business-Level Expectations and Uncertainty

The Census Bureau’s 2015 Management and Organizational Practices Survey (MOPS) utilized innovative methodology to collect five-point forecast distributions over own future shipments, employment, and capital and materials expenditures for 35,000 U.S. manufacturing plants. First and second moments of these plant-level forecast distributions covary strongly with first and second moments, respectively, of historical outcomes. The first moment of the distribution provides a measure of business’ expectations for future outcomes, while the second moment provides a measure of business’ subjective uncertainty over those outcomes. This subjective uncertainty measure correlates positively with financial risk measures. Drawing on the Annual Survey of Manufactures and the Census of Manufactures for the corresponding realizations, we find that subjective expectations are highly predictive of actual outcomes and, in fact, more predictive than statistical models fit to historical data. When respondents express greater subjective uncertainty about future outcomes at their plants, their forecasts are less accurate. However, managers supply overly precise forecast distributions in that implied confidence intervals for sales growth rates are much narrower than the distribution of actual outcomes. Finally, we develop evidence that greater use of predictive computing and structured management practices at the plant and a more decentralized decision-making process (across plants in the same firm) are associated with better forecast accuracy.

A Preliminary Investigation into Collegiate Student-Athletes’ Attitudes towards Athletic Trainers and Sport Psychology Consultants

To investigate if athletes’ attitudes toward athletic trainers and sport psychology consultants differ considering nature of athletic ability beliefs and previous experiences with these professionals; collegiate student-athletes (n = 114 male, n = 81 female, M age = 19.77, SD = 1.43) completed the Conceptions of the Nature of Athletic Ability Questionnaire-2 (Biddle, Wang, Chatzisarantis, & Spray, 2003), Attitudes Toward Athletic Trainers-Form (modified from the Attitudes toward Physiotherapist-Form; Arvinen-Barrow, Clement, & Bayes, 2012), and the Sport Psychology Attitudes Revised-Form (Martin, Kellman, Lavallee, & Page, 2002). Multiple analyses of variance revealed small statistically significant mean differences in attitudes considering ability beliefs, previous athletic training, and sport psychology experiences. Athletes with previous athletic training experience were less confident in their athletic trainer than those without such experience. In contrast, athletes with previous sport psychology experience were more confident in their consultant than those without such experiences. Results suggest athletes’ attitudes towards helping professionals may be partially influenced by subjective norms and expectations about the nature of such relationships.