Increases In Stream Temperature Research Articles

Evidence for the role of climate in the local extinction of a cool-water triclad

Climate change is expected to alter freshwater communities and accelerate extinction, but the exact processes are poorly known. Here, we appraise interannual variation between 2 sympatric planarians (Crenobia alpina and Phagocata vitta) in upland Welsh streams over 25 y during which 1 of this pair (C. alpina) disappeared. We tested 3 nonexclusive hypotheses involving: 1) long-term changes in stream chemistry, 2) interspecific competition, and 3) climatic variation or directional change to explain this apparent local extinction. Several lines of evidence revealed potential exploitation competition between C. alpina and P. vitta. Coexistence was confined to conditions with high prey abundance (recorded as the abundance of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera) and summer temperatures <12.5°C, whereas P. vitta dominated at sites with higher temperature, greater discharge, and lower prey abundance. The loss of C. alpina in the Llyn Brianne experimental catchments coincided with the largest-ever positive amplification of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in 1989 to 1994, accompanied by increased stream temperature, increased winter discharge, 2 summer droughts, and markedly reduced prey abundance. We suggest that interspecific competition and this prolonged climatic event acted in concert to favor P. vitta over C. alpina. Since its local loss, summer stream temperatures have generally exceeded the favorable range for C. alpina and, coupled with weak dispersal ability, probably explain its continued absence. Our data are consistent with the prediction that extreme climatic events will affect small, fluctuating populations. Nevertheless, this case study demonstrates clear difficulties in identifying unequivocally the exact climatic processes causing extinction where: 1) evidence is confined to weak inference, 2) responses to complex climatic events are nonlinear, 3) interactions occur among species or between climate and ecological processes, and 4) assessments are made retrospectively following extinctions.

Changes in light levels and stream temperatures with loss of eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) at a southern Appalachian stream: Implications for brook trout

The exotic invasive insect, hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae Annand), is causing mortality in eastern hemlocks (Tsuga canadensis [L.] Carr.) throughout the eastern U.S. Because hemlocks produce dense shade, and are being replaced by hardwood species that produce less shade, their loss may increase understory light levels. In the southern Appalachians, increases in light could increase stream temperatures, threatening species such as brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). We studied changes in light and stream temperature with eastern hemlock decline at a headwater southern Appalachian brook trout stream. Our results indicate that stream light levels have increased significantly with adelgid infestation. Leaf-on light levels are currently significantly higher (P<0.02) in plots containing high basal areas of hemlock (mean global site factor (GSF)(SE)=0.267(0.01)) compared with plots containing no hemlock (mean GSF(SE)=0.261(0.01)), suggesting that increases in light have occurred with hemlock decline. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a remotely sensed metric of vegetation density, decreased with hemlock decline from 2001 to 2008. In 2001, NDVI showed no relationship (R2=0.003; F=0.14; P=0.71) with hemlock basal area, but by 2008, there was a significant negative relationship (R2=0.352; F=19.55; P<0.001) between NDVI and hemlock basal area. A gap experiment showed that light levels may increase by up to 64.7% more (mean increase in GSF=27.5%) as hemlocks fall, creating gaps in the canopy. However, stream temperatures did not increase with hemlock decline during the study period, and we found that ground water inputs have a stronger influence on water temperature than light levels at this site. Linear regression showed a significant negative relationship between water temperature and proximity to ground water sources (R2=0.451; F=13.14; P=0.002), but no relationship between water temperature and light levels (R2<0.02; P>0.05). In addition, by comparing light levels between plots containing hemlock and those containing only hardwoods, we found that if hemlocks are replaced by hardwoods, light levels under an all-hardwood canopy (mean GSF(SE)=0.240(0.005)) are unlikely to be higher than they are under the current forest (mean GSF(SE)=0.254(0.007)). These results suggest that loss of hemlock along southern Appalachian headwater streams could have short-term impacts on light levels, but that long-term changes in light levels, increases in water temperature, and adverse effects on brook trout may be unlikely.

Effects of climate change and wildfire on stream temperatures and salmonid thermal habitat in a mountain river network

Mountain streams provide important habitats for many species, but their faunas are especially vulnerable to climate change because of ectothermic physiologies and movements that are constrained to linear networks that are easily fragmented. Effectively conserving biodiversity in these systems requires accurate downscaling of climatic trends to local habitat conditions, but downscaling is difficult in complex terrains given diverse microclimates and mediation of stream heat budgets by local conditions. We compiled a stream temperature database (n = 780) for a 2500-km river network in central Idaho to assess possible trends in summer temperatures and thermal habitat for two native salmonid species from 1993 to 2006. New spatial statistical models that account for network topology were parameterized with these data and explained 93% and 86% of the variation in mean stream temperatures and maximas, respectively. During our study period, basin average mean stream temperatures increased by 0.38 degrees C (0.27 degrees C/decade), and maximas increased by 0.48 degrees C (0.34 degrees C/decade), primarily due to long-term (30-50 year) trends in air temperatures and stream flows. Radiation increases from wildfires accounted for 9% of basin-scale temperature increases, despite burning 14% of the basin. Within wildfire perimeters, however, stream temperature increases were 2-3 times greater than basin averages, and radiation gains accounted for 50% of warming. Thermal habitat for rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) was minimally affected by temperature increases, except for small shifts towards higher elevations. Bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), in contrast, were estimated to have lost 11-20% (8-16%/decade) of the headwater stream lengths that were cold enough for spawning and early juvenile rearing, with the largest losses occurring in the coldest habitats. Our results suggest that a warming climate has begun to affect thermal conditions in streams and that impacts to biota will be specific to both species and context. Where species are at risk, conservation actions should be guided based on considerations of restoration opportunity and future climatic effects. To refine predictions based on thermal effects, more work is needed to understand mechanisms associated with biological responses, climate effects on other habitat features, and habitat configurations that confer population resilience.

Rising stream and river temperatures in the United States

Water temperatures are increasing in many streams and rivers throughout the US. We analyzed historical records from 40 sites and found that 20 major streams and rivers have shown statistically significant, long‐term warming. Annual mean water temperatures increased by 0.009–0.077°C yr−1, and rates of warming were most rapid in, but not confined to, urbanizing areas. Long‐term increases in stream water temperatures were typically correlated with increases in air temperatures. If stream temperatures were to continue to increase at current rates, due to global warming and urbanization, this could have important effects on eutrophication, ecosystem processes such as biological productivity and stream metabolism, contaminant toxicity, and loss of aquatic biodiversity.

Stream Temperature Response to Three Riparian Vegetation Scenarios by Use of a Distributed Temperature Validated Model

Elevated in-stream temperature has led to a surge in the occurrence of parasitic intrusion proliferative kidney disease and has resulted in fish kills throughout Switzerland's waterways. Data from distributed temperature sensing (DTS) in-stream measurements for three cloud-free days in August 2007 over a 1260 m stretch of the Boiron de Merges River in southwest Switzerland were used to calibrate and validate a physically based one-dimensional stream temperature model. Stream temperature response to three distinct riparian conditions were then modeled: open, in-stream reeds, and forest cover. Simulation predicted a mean peak stream temperature increase of 0.7 °C if current vegetation was removed, an increase of 0.1 °C if dense reeds covered the entire stream reach, and a decrease of 1.2 °C if a mature riparian forest covered the entire reach. Understanding that full vegetation canopy cover is the optimal riparian management option for limiting stream temperature, in-stream reeds, which require no riparian set-aside and grow very quickly, appear to provide substantial thermal control, potentially useful for land-use management.

An assessment of the current and future thermal regimes of three streams located in the Wenatchee River basin, Washington State: some implications for regional river basin systems

We examine summer temperature patterns in the Wenatchee River and two of its major tributaries Icicle and Nason Creeks, located in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. Through model simulations we evaluate the cooling effects of mature riparian vegetation corridors along the streams and potential increases due to global warming for the 2020s-2080s time horizons. Site potential shade influences are smaller in the mainstream due to its relatively large size and reduced canopy density in the lower reaches, proving a modest reduction of about 0.3°C of the stream length average daily maximum temperature, compared with 1.5°C and 2.8°C in Icicle and Nason Creeks. Assuming no changes in riparian vegetation shade, stream length-average daily maximum temperature could increase in the Wenatchee River from 1-1.2°C by the 2020s to 2°C in the 2040s and 2.5-3.6°C in the 2080s, reaching 27-30°C in the warmest reaches. The cooling effects from the site potential riparian vegetation are likely to be offset by the climate change effects in the Wenatchee River by the 2020s. Buffers of mature riparian vegetation along the banks of the tributaries could prevent additional water temperature increases associated with climate change. By the end of the century, assuming site potential shade, the tributaries could have a thermal condition similar to today's condition which has less shade. In the absence of riparian vegetation restoration, at typical summer low flows, stream length average daily mean temperatures could reach about 16.4-17°C by the 2040s with stream length average daily maxima around 19.5-20.6°C, values that can impair or eliminate salmonid rearing and spawning. Modeled increases in stream temperature due to global warming are determined primarily by the projected reductions in summer streamflows, and to a lesser extent by the increases in air temperature. The findings emphasize the importance of riparian vegetation restoration along the smaller tributaries, to prevent future temperature increases and preserve aquatic habitat.

Stream Temperature Relationships to Forest Harvest in Western Washington1

Abstract: We compared summer stream temperature patterns in 40 small forested watersheds in the Hoh and Clearwater basins in the western Olympic Peninsula, Washington, to examine correlations between previous riparian and basin‐wide timber harvest activity and stream temperatures. Seven watersheds were unharvested, while the remaining 33 had between 25% and 100% of the total basin harvested, mostly within the last 40 years. Mean daily maximum temperatures were significantly different between the harvested and unharvested basins, averaging 14.5°C and 12.1°C, respectively. Diurnal fluctuations between harvested and unharvested basins were also significantly different, averaging 1.7°C and 0.9°C, respectively. Total basin harvest was correlated with average daily maximum temperature (r2 = 0.39), as was total riparian harvest (r2 = 0.32). The amount of recently clear‐cut riparian forest (&lt;20 year) within 600 m upstream of our monitoring sites ranged from 0% to 100% and was not correlated to increased stream temperatures. We used Akaike’s Information Criteria (AIC) analysis to assess whether other physical variables could explain some of the observed variation in stream temperature. We found that variables related to elevation, slope, aspect, and geology explain between 5% and 14% more of the variability relative to the variability explained by percent of basin harvested (BasHarv), and that the BasHarv was consistently a better predictor than the amount of riparian forest harvested. While the BasHarv is in all of the models that perform well, the AIC analysis shows that there are many models with two variables that perform about the same and therefore it would be difficult to choose one as the best model. We conclude that adding additional variables to the model does not change the basic findings that there is a relatively strong relationship between maximum daily stream temperatures and the total amount of harvest in a basin, and strong, but slightly weaker relationship between maximum daily stream temperatures and the total riparian harvest in a basin. Seventeen of the 40 streams exceeded the Washington State Department of Ecology’s (DOE) temperature criterion for waters defined as “core salmon and trout habitat” (class AA waters). The DOE temperature criterion for class AA waters is any seven‐day average of daily maximum temperatures in excess of 16°C. The probability of a stream exceeding the water quality standard increased with timber harvest activity. All unharvested sites and five of six sites that had 25‐50% harvest met DOEs water quality standard. In contrast, only nine of eighteen sites with 50‐75% harvest and two of nine sites with &gt;75% harvest met DOEs water quality standard. Many streams with extensive canopy closure, as estimated by the age of riparian trees, still had higher temperatures and greater diurnal fluctuations than the unharvested basins. This suggests that the impact of past forest harvest activities on stream temperatures cannot be entirely mitigated through the reestablishment of riparian buffers.

Comparative Thermal Requirements of Westslope Cutthroat Trout and Rainbow Trout: Implications for Species Interactions and Development of Thermal Protection Standards

AbstractWater temperature appears to play a key role in determining population persistence of westslope cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi, but specific thermal performance and survival criteria have not been defined. We used the acclimated chronic exposure laboratory method to determine upper thermal tolerances and growth optima of westslope cutthroat trout and rainbow trout O. mykiss, a potential nonnative competitor that occupies much of the former range of westslope cutthroat trout. Rainbow trout had a distinct survival advantage over westslope cutthroat trout at water temperatures above 20°C. The ultimate upper incipient lethal temperature of rainbow trout (24.3°C; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 24.0–24.7°C) was 4.7°C higher than that of westslope cutthroat trout (19.6°C; 95% CI = 19.1–19.9°C). In contrast, both species had similar growth rates and optimum growth temperatures (westslope cutthroat trout: 13.6°C; rainbow trout: 13.1°C) over the temperature range of 8–20°C, although rainbow trout grew over a wider range and at higher temperatures than did westslope cutthroat trout. The rainbow trout's higher upper temperature tolerance and greater growth capacity at warmer temperatures may account for the species' displacement of westslope cutthroat trout at lower elevations. Our results indicate that maximum daily temperatures near the optimum growth temperature of 13–15°C would ensure suitable thermal habitat for westslope cutthroat trout populations. The low upper temperature tolerance and optimum growth temperature of westslope cutthroat trout relative to those of other salmonids suggest that this subspecies may be particularly susceptible to stream temperature increases associated with global warming and anthropogenic habitat disturbance.

A Science‐Based Approach for Identifying Temperature‐Sensitive Streams for Rainbow Trout

AbstractTo regulate human‐induced changes to fish habitat, resource managers commonly set standards based on maximum allowable changes. For example, new legislation in British Columbia (BC), Canada, calls for restrictions on harvesting of trees and related activities near temperature‐sensitive streams. However, methods for designating such streams are still evolving. Our objective was to help develop such methods by (1) improving understanding of the temperature‐dependent responses of fish and (2) devising improved methods for estimating the effects of forestry‐related activities on stream temperature as well as the chance of exceeding upper temperature limits. Using previously published models, we found that for rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss particular increases in stream temperature led to different effects on juvenile growth rate, egg survival rate, and resistance to mortality from diseases. In a separate analysis, to evaluate the chance that cumulative forestry activities will increase stream temperature by various amounts, we compiled summer temperature data for 104 streams in central BC that reflected different watershed features, contrasting summer climates, and various levels of land use. A classification and regression tree analysis of a summer maximum weekly average temperature (MWAT) index grouped streams into six categories as a function of watershed size, watershed elevation, and air temperature. We then analyzed the remaining unexplained variation among stream temperature indices using Bayesian regression. We found high probabilities that increases in road density and the density of road crossings of streams within watersheds are associated with increases in residual temperature. For instance, a Bayesian regression indicated a 6‐in‐10 chance that the MWAT in our study area will increase by 1.25°C for a road density of 2 km/km2 of watershed area and by 3.25°C for a road density of 4 km/km2. These analyses illustrate some possible ways to help designate temperature‐sensitive streams.

Increase in stream temperature related to anthropogenic heat input from urban wastewater

Summary To better understand long-term temperature changes in urban streams, we investigated stream temperatures in the central Tokyo area and its suburbs from 1978 through 1998. Stream temperature data were analyzed together with data on thermal effluents of urban wastewater and air temperature for the same period. Statistical analyses indicated that the stream temperature in winter and early spring increased at a rate of 0.11–0.21 °C/year in segments that had a considerable increase in wastewater heat input over the same period. These segments showed an appreciable change in the relationship between air temperature and stream temperature, which suggests that the increase in anthropogenic heat input from wastewater was the main cause of the long-term increase in stream temperature. Other possible factors such as increasing air temperature and heat exchange with seawater were found to have comparatively minor influences.

Comparison of Upper Thermal Tolerances of Native and Nonnative Fish Species in Arizona

AbstractWe used a lethal thermal method to estimate the upper thermal tolerances of 11 native and 7 nonnative fish species found throughout southern Arizona. Fish were acclimated to 25°C and 30°C. For all species tested, an increase in acclimation temperature resulted in a higher thermal tolerance value. Among the species acclimated to 25°C, desert pupfish Cyprinodon macularius, western mosquitofish Gambusia affinis, and Gila topminnow Poeciliopsis occidentalis were most tolerant to high temperature. Speckled dace Rhinichthys osculus, spikedace Meda fulgida, and loach minnow R. cobitis were least tolerant. Many native species demonstrated a limited ability to extend their upper temperature tolerances via acclimation. Our data suggest that several native species may be sensitive to increasing annual and large daily temperature fluctuations in Arizona's streams and rivers. Although southwestern native fishes were previously believed to be tolerant to high temperature due to their evolution in desert environments, this study suggests that many of these fishes are less tolerant than previously thought. In addition, many fishes introduced from the eastern United States had higher temperature tolerances than some of the native desert species tested. Increases in stream temperatures in Arizona could reduce the habitat available for native fishes and therefore may favor those nonnative species with higher thermal tolerances.

Effects of urbanization and land use on fish communities in Valley Creek watershed, Chester County, Pennsylvania

Valley Creek watershed, located in southeastern Pennsylvania, is a small, fourth-order stream that empties into the Schuylkill River at Valley Forge National Historic Park, thirty-five kilometers northwest of Philadelphia. The 64 km2 watershed has been under extreme urbanization pressure over the past 30 years, resulting in rapidly increasing impervious surface cover and decreasing open space. The purpose of this study was to document some of the effects of urbanization on fish assemblages by quantifying the fish communities at fifteen sites throughout the watershed. Long-term effects of continued urbanization were identified, as data from the present study were compared to similar work completed nearly ten years earlier. There has been a shift in species composition from intolerant, coldwater species to more tolerant, eurythermal species. Currently, Valley Creek is supporting a naturally reproducing population of brown trout, but there has been a marked decline in relative abundance and range since 1993. Increased stream temperature from urban run-off is one of the primary issues in Valley Creek. Species composition was unique at each of the 15 stations owing to the effect of local land use in each station’;s drainage area. Fish assemblages revealed a patchy, non-continuous pattern of fish distribution.

Assessing possible thermal rearing restrictions for juvenile coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) through thermal infrared imaging and in-stream monitoring, Redwood Creek, California

We quantified patterns in stream temperature in a northern coastal California river using thermal infrared (TIR) imaging and in-stream monitoring and related temperature patterns to the historical and present distributions of juvenile coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch). In Redwood Creek, California, water temperature increased from the headwaters to about 60 km downstream, then gradually decreased over the next 40 km as the river approaches the Pacific Ocean. Despite the lack of fish migration barriers, juvenile coho are currently only observed in the downstream-most 20 km, whereas historically they were found in 90 km of river channel. Maximum daily temperatures and duration of elevated stream temperatures were not significantly different in the headwater and downstream reaches but were significantly higher in the 50 km long intervening reach, where maximum weekly maximum temperatures ranged from 23 to 27 °C. An increase in stream temperatures in the middle basin during the last three decades as a result of channel aggradation, widening, and the removal of large riparian conifers may play an important role in restricting juvenile coho to one-fifth of their historical range.

Estimating extreme stream temperatures by the standard deviate method

It is now widely accepted that global climate warming is taking place on the earth. Among many other effects, a rise in air temperatures is expected to increase stream temperatures indefinitely. However, due to evaporative cooling, stream temperatures do not increase linearly with increasing air temperatures indefinitely. Within the anticipated bounds of climate warming, extreme stream temperatures may therefore not rise substantially. With this concept in mind, past extreme temperatures measured at 720 USGS stream gauging stations were analyzed by the standard deviate method. In this method the highest stream temperatures are expressed as the mean temperature of a measured partial maximum stream temperature series plus its standard deviation multiplied by a factor K E (standard deviate). Various K E-values were explored; values of K E larger than 8 were found physically unreasonable. It is concluded that the value of K E should be in the range from 7 to 8. A unit error in estimating K E translates into a typical stream temperature error of about 0.5 °C. Using a logistic model for the stream temperature/air temperature relationship, a one degree error in air temperature gives a typical error of 0.16 °C in stream temperature. With a projected error in the enveloping standard deviate dK E=1.0 (range 0.5–1.5) and an error in projected high air temperature d T a=2 °C (range 0–4 °C), the total projected stream temperature error is estimated as d T s=0.8 °C.

RIPARIAN MICROCLIMATE AND STREAM TEMPERATURE RESPONSE TO FOREST HARVESTING: A REVIEW

Forest harvesting can increase solar radiation in the riparian zone as well as wind speed and exposure to air advected from clearings, typically causing increases in summertime air, soil, and stream temperatures and decreases in relative humidity. Stream temperature increases following forest harvesting are primarily controlled by changes in insolation but also depend on stream hydrology and channel morphology. Stream temperatures recovered to pre-harvest levels within 10 years in many studies but took longer in others. Leaving riparian buffers can decrease the magnitude of stream temperature increases and changes to riparian microclimate, but substantial warming has been observed for streams within both unthinned and partial retention buffers. A range of studies has demonstrated that streams may or may not cool after flowing from clearings into shaded environments, and further research is required in relation to the factors controlling downstream cooling. Further research is also required on riparian microclimate and its responses to harvesting, the influences of surface/subsurface water exchange on stream and bed temperature regimes, biological implications of temperature changes in headwater streams (both on site and downstream), and methods for quantifying shade and its influence on radiation inputs to streams and riparian zones.

Monitoring aids control of ag-related stream-temperature increases

Monitoring aids control of ag-related stream-temperature increases

Long-term open-water season stream temperature variations and changes over Lena River Basin in Siberia

This study systematically analyzes long-term (1950–1992) stream temperature records for the major sub-basins within the Lena River watershed in order to describe water temperature regimes over the various parts of the Lena watershed and document significant stream temperature changes induced by reservoir regulation, and by natural variations/changes. The results show that the open water season can be divided into three consecutive stages—“increasing temperature stage” in the early open water season, “stable temperature stage” in the mid-warm season, and “decreasing temperature stage” in the late open water season. Temperature conditions are similar over the Aldan and Upper Lena regions. However, stream temperatures at the Lena basin outlet are up to 8 °C lower than those over the southern sub-basins. This suggests that the latitudinal difference in climatic variables, such as air temperature, might be the major control on stream temperature regime. Results also demonstrate that the reservoir regulation has a strong influence on the regional water temperature regime and change in the regulated sub-basin. Reservoir regulation has increased (decreased) the downstream water temperatures in the Vilui valley during the early (mid) open water season. Trend analyses show consistent warming trends across the entire Lena River basin in the early open water season. This may indicate a response to earlier snowmelt over the Lena River watershed. Trend results also demonstrate that the Aldan tributary, without much human impact, experiences warming (cooling) trends in the first (second) half of the open water season, leading to a stream temperature regime shift toward early open water season. The upper Lena River has warming (cooling) trends in the early (mid-late) open water season. Over the regulated Vilui tributary, however, stream temperatures have significantly increased in the early and late parts of the warm season due to combined effects of natural changes and reservoir regulation. Over the Lena basin as a whole, strong positive correlations have been found between the basin mean monthly air and water temperatures during the warm season. Increasing water temperatures were observed during the early and mid-June. Because of stream temperature increase in this peak flow period, the Lena River heat flux has gone up by 23% in June. This may have considerable impact on the thermal conditions of the Laptev Sea in the early summer season.

Stream habitat and rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) physiological stress responses to streamside clear-cut logging in British Columbia

The impacts associated with streamside clear-cut logging (e.g., increased temperatures and sedimentation, loss of habitat complexity) are potentially stressful to stream-dwelling fish. We examined stream habitat and rainbow trout physiological stress responses to clear-cut logging in north-central British Columbia using 15 streams divided into three categories: old growth (reference), recently logged (clear-cut to both banks 1–9 years prior to the study), and second growth (clear-cut 25–28 years prior to the study). We used plasma cortisol and chloride concentrations as indicators of acute stress, and interrenal nuclear diameters, impairment of the plasma cortisol response, and trout condition and length-at-age estimates as indicators of chronic stress. No statistically significant acute or chronic stress responses to streamside logging were found, despite increases in summertime stream temperatures (daily maxima and diurnal fluctuations) and a reduction in the average overall availability of pool habitat. Our observed stress responses were approximately an order of magnitude lower than what has previously been reported in the literature for a variety of different stressors, and trout interrenal nuclear diameters responses to the onset of winter were approximately five times greater than those to logging. The overall consistency of our results suggests that the impacts of streamside clear-cut logging are not acutely or chronically stressful to rainbow trout in our study area.

Estimating Stream Temperature from Air Temperature: Implications for Future Water Quality

This study examines the air temperature/stream temperature relationship at a geographically diverse set of streams. We evaluate the general temperature relationships (both linear and nonlinear) that apply to these streams, and then examine how changes in stream temperature associated with climate variability or climate warming might affect dissolved oxygen levels. The majority of streams showed an increase in water temperature of about 0.6–0.8°C for every 1°C increase in air temperature, with very few streams displaying a linear 1:1 air/water temperature trend. For most of the streams, a nonlinear model produced a better fit than did a simple linear model. Understanding the relationship between air temperature and water temperature is important if people want to estimate how stream temperatures are likely to respond to anticipated future increases in surface air temperature. Surface water temperature in many streams will likely increase 2 to 3°C as air temperature increases 3 to 5°C. At sites with currently low dissolved oxygen content, an increase in summer stream temperatures could cause the dissolved oxygen levels to fall into a critically low range, threatening the health of many aquatic species.

PREDICTING INFLUENCES OF URBAN DEVELOPMENT ON THERMAL HABITAT IN A WARM WATER STREAM1

ABSTRACT: Watershed and aquatic ecosystem management requires methods to predict and understand thermal impacts on stream habitat from urbanization. This study evaluates thermal effects of projected urbanization using a modeling framework and considers the biological implications to the fish community. The Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP) was used in combination with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) to assess changes in stream thermal habitat under altered stream‐ flow, shade, and channel width associated with low, medium, and high density urban developments in the Back Creek watershed (Roanoke County, Virginia). Flow alteration by the high density development scenario alone caused minimal heating of mean daily summer base flow (mean +0.1°C). However, when flow changes were modeled concurrently with reduced shade and increased channel width, mean daily temperature increased 1°C. Maximum daily temperatures exceeding the state standard (31°C) increased from 1.1 to 7.6 percent of the time using summer 2000 climatic conditions. Model results suggest that additional urban development will alter stream temperature, potentially limiting thermal habitat and shifting the fish community structure from intolerant to tolerant fish species in Back Creek. More research is needed on the sub‐lethal or chronic effects of increased stream temperature regimes on fish, particularly for those species already living in habitats near their upper limits.