Strategic Foresight Research Articles (Page 1)

ABSTRACT The paradigm of efficiency-driven Global Value Chains (GVCs) is yielding to an era of profound geopolitical volatility, compelling firms to develop new resilience strategies. While firms adopt AI and blockchain in response, the literature offers limited insight into the strategic mechanisms that translate these digital tools into tangible resilience against non-market risks. This study addresses this gap through an in-depth, qualitative case study of a multinational retail corporation. The findings reveal three core mechanisms: the cultivation of a ‘digital duality’ where AI builds both operational agility and strategic foresight; the use of blockchain for ‘institutional navigation’ to enhance legitimacy and manage non-market pressures; and the pragmatic management of an ‘implementation paradox’ arising from deep-seated organisational and ecosystem frictions. The study contributes a novel, mechanism-based theory of digital GVC resilience, moving beyond a techno-centric view to explain how firms strategically enact technology to navigate a turbulent global landscape.

The emergence of algorithmic leadership based on Artificial Intelligence (AI) is reshaping organizational strategies, particularly in the context of the New Autonomous Regions (DOB) in Papua. This article explores how AI-driven leadership models can optimize governance and organizational success in Papua’s DOB, where digital transformation, infrastructure development, and socio-political stability are key factors. By integrating machine learning, predictive analytics, and AI-based decision-making, algorithmic leadership can enhance efficiency, transparency, and strategic foresight. The study employs a mixed-method approach by analyzing governance frameworks, stakeholder adaptation, and the challenges of AI adoption in Papua’s DOB. The findings indicate that AI-based leadership promotes data-driven decision-making, addresses bureaucratic inefficiencies, and accelerates economic growth. However, challenges such as technological readiness, ethical concerns, and local community acceptance remain central issues. The article proposes a hybrid leadership model that combines algorithmic intelligence with human decision-making to ensure inclusivity, cultural adaptation, and sustainable governance in Papua.

Financial management and practices ensure the wise control of funds to sustain growth and long-term value. In this review, it provides an in-depth analysis of the evolution of financial management in contemporary organizations has seen a significant transformation. Over the past two decades, financial management has been reshaped by technological advancements, evolving market conditions, and the complexities of global business. This piece, drawing on a wide-ranging analysis of academic sources, examines the move away from traditional, inflexible budgeting methods towards more adaptable financial planning approaches. These strategies equip organizations to successfully manage economic instability and competitive pressures. It further explores the increasing use of advanced technologies specifically artificial intelligence, blockchain, and real-time financial analytics in financial decision-making processes, emphasizing how they help to improve accuracy, operational efficiency, and strategic foresight.

Purpose This study aims to identify core capability gaps that hinder the development of business acumen and examine its role as a strategic enabler of innovation and sustained performance among Indonesia’s micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) in the digital era. Design/methodology/approach Based on a survey of 450 MSME executives, this study employs partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) to analyze the relationships among business acumen, innovation creation, digital platform empowerment and sustainability. Findings MSME business characteristics, particularly strategic commitment and learning orientation, shape foresight and adaptability in dynamic markets, as reflected in the Enlightenment and Empowerment phases of the 5E model. Technological competence mediates the effect of government support on performance, while business acumen emerges as a central mechanism driving innovation and resilience. Research limitations/implications Theoretically, the study enriches the understanding of business acumen as a dynamic capability aligned with organizational learning and strategic foresight. Practical implications Practically, it offers a diagnostic roadmap for MSMEs and policymakers to strengthen innovation, commitment, and resilience. By framing business acumen as a cultivated capability, it emphasizes the role of digital literacy, adaptive learning, and institutional support in fostering inclusive and sustainable transformation. Social implications The study underscores the social value of MSME digitalization in promoting inclusive participation in the digital economy (SDG 8 and SDG 9). Through innovation and learning, particularly in the Enrichment and Empowerment phases, it supports socially inclusive and adaptive enterprise development. Originality/value The study offers an integrated mid-range conceptual model bridging organizational knowledge creation and dynamic capability theories. The novel 5E model outlines a developmental sequence for assessing how MSMEs build strategic agility through digital transformation.

The evolving role of Medical Affairs (MA) has positioned this department as a key element in the development and lifecycle management of pharmaceutical products. In response to internal and external assessments, AstraZeneca (AZ) Spain implemented a transformation of its MA central teams through a newly designed Working Model. This model ensures full engagement across the product lifecycle, spanning early access, pre-launch, launch, and post-launch, balancing global strategy with local execution, enhancing cross-functional collaboration, and timely evidence generation. Central to this transformation is the deployment of four coordinated teams: the Early Asset Strategy Team, the Launch Readiness Team, the Core Value Team, and the Brand Team. These teams follow a structured work methodology and coordination model underpinned by dedicated information management processes that streamline communication and knowledge transfer. Training and capability-building programmes were also introduced to strengthen critical functional and leadership competencies. These changes aim to improve product positioning, accelerate market access, and drive value-based healthcare outcomes. The initiative aligns with broader industry trends emphasising early stakeholder engagement, data integration, and patient-centric strategies. By fostering agility, strategic foresight, and internal consistency, the transformation of MA central teams at AZ Spain provides a replicable model for enhancing MA's contribution to product development and healthcare ecosystem innovation. This article builds on our previous publications about the national ecosystem assessment of stakeholder needs, the definition of our MA transformation framework (articulating the strategic roadmap), and the description of the evolution of in-field MA teams in AZ Spain. Here we detail the transformation of the MA central teams and their working model. Future MA evolution will integrate emerging technologies like artificial intelligence (AI) and digital tools, improving stakeholder engagement, evidence generation, and decision making. The transformative potential of AI in anticipating trends and optimising trials will enhance the role of MA in driving innovation and improving patient outcomes.

This paper explores how Artificial Intelligence, Strategic Foresight and Competitive Intelligence convergence can significantly contribute to enhancing Morocco’s national competitiveness, transformational growth, and consequently, placing the new development model within a new AI-driven paradigm by converging different intelligences to serve competitiveness, performance, sovereignty, resilience, and Morocco's strategic and digital transformation.To this end, we adopted a mixed approach, combining a literature review, semi-structured interviews with experts and professionals in these fields, a benchmark of best practices for converging this triptych of AI, strategic foresight and competitive intelligence, and conceptual and systemic modelling that operationalizes this convergence across the entire Moroccan foresight and intelligence ecosystem. Thus, we proposed the LOUMAR Framework as part of a holistic, inclusive and convergent-oriented approach designed to harness the largely untapped synergistic potential between artificial intelligence, strategic foresight and competitive intelligence. This strategic and integrative model is based on six key levers, primarily focusing on Leadership and strategic vision, Organizing the National augmented foresight and intelligence ecosystem, Utilizing AI-enhanced competitive intelligence, Modelling AI-driven strategic foresight, Advancing AI-powered and intelligence-driven transformation, Resilience, realignment and continuous evaluation. Furthermore, we have outlined Morocco's main achievements and strengths with regards to this tripartite convergence, the constraints and points for improvement, the opportunities to be seized and the perspectives and development paths to follow, through the implementation of a strategic and digital transformation model that drives transformational growth and boosts Morocco’s augmented competitiveness.

Generative Artificial Intelligence (GAI) is rapidly transforming marketing paradigms by automating content creation, optimizing customer segmentation, and enabling real-time decision-making. This paper explores the multidimensional impacts of GAI on strategic marketing processes, managerial responsibilities, and ethical data governance. Based on a structured survey involving 312 participants, the research employs quantitative methods including descriptive statistics, Pearson correlations, and multiple regression analysis to examine how trust, satisfaction, emotional engagement, and behavioral loyalty interact with AI-driven marketing practices. The results indicate a strong positive correlation between satisfaction and customer engagement, with emotional engagement emerging as the most predictive factor of sustained loyalty. Trust remains a critical foundation, but its influence is mediated by the perceived transparency and ethical framing of AI tools. Furthermore, the study reveals a shift in managerial roles toward hybrid profiles that combine technological fluency, strategic foresight, and ethical sensitivity. Respondents emphasize the need for algorithmic transparency, data protection, and the human oversight of automated systems. Key concerns include the opacity of recommendation engines, potential biases in data interpretation, and the over-reliance on predictive models. From a governance perspective, the research recommends establishing AI ethics committees, integrating multidisciplinary collaboration, and developing clear policies to balance innovation with responsibility. This paper argues that GAI should not be seen solely as a tool for efficiency but as a transformative force that requires a rethinking of organizational culture, training, and value creation. By embedding ethical safeguards and stakeholder-centric values, businesses can build a sustainable digital future anchored in trust, relevance, and long-term engagement.

Persistent economic volatility and revenue instability in Nigeria have placed increasing pressure on the financial management systems of the Nigerian Navy. As operational demands rise and fiscal constraints deepen, there is an urgent need for a strategic framework that ensures budgeting flexibility, mission continuity, and long-term sustainability. This paper proposes the Nigerian Naval Budget Resilience Model—a comprehensive approach to enhancing fiscal agility and safeguarding naval operations against macroeconomic shocks. Grounded in principles of adaptability, redundancy, fiscal discipline, and responsiveness, the model integrates risk-based tools such as rolling forecasts, contingency planning protocols, and early warning economic indicators into the budgeting process. It also emphasizes institutional reform by addressing core challenges, including oil-revenue dependency, weak forecasting capacity, and the absence of flexible financial mechanisms. Structural components of the model support decentralized planning and evidence-based allocation while promoting alignment with national fiscal governance systems. The model offers a practical roadmap for embedding resilience within naval financial operations, supported by leadership training, policy directives, and interagency collaboration. Ultimately, this study contributes to the modernization of defense budgeting in Nigeria, fostering a culture of strategic foresight, operational stability, and institutional transparency within the Armed Forces.

Objectives This article examines NATO's approach to strategic forecasting within an increasingly complex security environment characterized by great power competition, technological transformation, and multidimensional threats. The research aims to assess NATO's methodological frameworks, institutional architecture, and temporal dimensions of strategic foresight capabilities. Methods The analysis employs an examination of NATO's distributed institutional architecture for strategic foresight, mapping the roles and responsibilities of key entities from the North Atlantic Council to specialized commands and research institutions. The study evaluates three methodological frameworks: the Strategic Foresight Analysis (SFA) covering 20-year horizons using PMESII domain scanning, the Framework for Future Alliance Operations (FFAO) translating geopolitical trends into military implications, and the Multiple Futures Project (MFP). Results The analysis reveals a multi-layered institutional architecture spanning from NATO Headquarters' specialized units to Allied Command Operations (ACO) and Allied Command Transformation (ACT), each contributing distinct analytical capabilities. The 2023 Strategic Foresight Analysis identified seven key drivers and developed four generic scenarios ranging from "Fragmenting World" to "Pervasive Competition," utilizing input from eight hundred participants and AI-assisted horizon scanning tools. Conclusions NATO's contemporary approach to strategic foresight represents a system that emphasizes organizational adaptability over predictive precision. The Alliance has successfully developed a distributed institutional framework that leverages diverse analytical perspectives while mitigating organizational blind spots through temporal differentiation and capability-based planning methodologies. Rather than pursuing perfect prediction, NATO's strategic foresight focuses on building adaptive capacity to accommodate multiple potential futures across an increasingly complex security environment where military and civilian spheres are increasingly blurred.

The article is devoted to the study of the process of post-war modernization of Ukraine’s public service as a necessary condition for the effective functioning of the state under the conditions of post-war recovery. The armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine has triggered profound transformations in the political, social and administrative environments, creating new challenges for the public governance system. Particular attention is given to analyzing the challenges faced by the public service resulting from decentralization, shifts in the state policy priorities, the need to ensure institutional resilience, as well as increasing citizen expectations regarding transparency and the effectiveness of governmental decisions. The article substantiates the relevance of shifting from the traditional model of civil service to one that aligns with the principles of resilience governance – governance that is stable, adaptive and innovative. It outlines the need to develop human resource potential, strengthen institutional capacity, implement digital transformation of management processes and promote the principles of openness, integrity, operational flexibility and responsiveness. The author put an emphasis on the importance of fostering a culture of continuous improvement and strategic foresight within public institutions. The study explores examples of international experience in post-conflict civil service recovery, with particular emphasis on Canadian practices, which illustrate the importance of policy coherence, interagency coordination and sustained investment in human capital. Key vectors of institutional change are identified, including the revision of the regulatory framework, the transformation of managerial approaches and others. It was concluded that the post-war modernization of the civil service should be implemented in a systemic and integrated manner, ensuring a well-calibrated balance between flexibility and stability, accountability and innovation, institutional memory and openness to change. Such an approach will not only strengthen the resilience of public institutions, but also foster public trust and support Ukraine’s long-term democratic development.

Leaders in the era of artificial intelligence face new dynamics that challenge traditional leadership models, including rapid technological disruption, organizational resistance, and increasing trust gaps between employees and executives. This study aims to explore the challenges, opportunities, and strategic transformations required for leadership in the context of artificial intelligence adoption. The research reviewed scientific articles published between 2019 and 2025 obtained through purposive sampling from databases such as Scopus, ScienceDirect, and ResearchGate, with inclusion criteria focusing on digital leadership, artificial intelligence, organizational change, and ethical implications. The systematic literature review method was used, supported by content analysis to identify and categorize themes. The findings indicate three major themes: first, leaders face challenges such as algorithmic bias, lack of digital literacy, and mental health pressures that may hinder organizational adaptation; second, artificial intelligence provides opportunities by enhancing decision-making accuracy, predictive analytics, and enabling inclusive human-machine collaboration; third, strategic transformation requires leaders to develop AI literacy, internalize ethical leadership, and establish long-term digital visions that balance efficiency with human sustainability. The study concludes that leadership effectiveness in the era of artificial intelligence depends not only on technological mastery but also on ethical responsibility, organizational adaptability, and strategic foresight. The implications highlight the urgent need for leadership training programs that integrate digital skills, ethical frameworks, and sustainability values to ensure organizational resilience in the future.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has transcended its early characterization as a mere technological adjunct to become a structural inflection point in the evolution of corporate strategy. No longer confined to process automation or operational efficiency, AI functions today as a constitutive force that re configures the architecture of competitive advantage, governance paradigms, business model innovation, and workforce capability frameworks. This study interrogates the profound ways in which strategic management is being reconstituted in the AI epoch, employing a systematic literature review triangulated with industry white papers, empirical datasets, and global case exemplars. The findings illustrate that enterprises are compelled to redefine the locus of value creation and organisational resilience within an increasingly interdependent digital ecosystem. Anchored in Dynamic Capabilities Theory and Innovation Diffusion Theory, the analysis reveals AI as both an unparalleled strategic accelerant and a latent existential hazard, simultaneously enabling unprecedented adaptability while engendering novel vulnerabilities. The paper culminates with prescriptive insights for executives, regulators, and educators on embedding AI into long-horizon strategic foresight, ensuring that algorithmic power is balanced with ethical stewardship and institutional trust.

ABSTRACT Generating strategic foresight for public organizations is a resource‐intensive and non‐trivial effort. Strategic foresight is especially important for governments, which are increasingly confronted by complex and unpredictable challenges and wicked problems. With advances in machine learning, information systems can be integrated more creatively into the strategic foresight process. We report on an innovative pilot project conducted by an Australian state government that leveraged generative artificial intelligence (AI), specifically large language models, for strategic foresight using a design science approach. The project demonstrated AI's potential to enhance scenario generation for strategic foresight, improve data processing efficiency, and support human decision‐making. However, the study also found that it is essential to balance AI automation with human expertise for validation and oversight. These findings highlight the importance of iterative design to develop robust AI tools for strategic foresight which, alongside stakeholder engagement and process transparency, build trust and ensure practical relevance.

When it comes to paving the way for innovation in B2B telecommunication services for companies in Indonesia, the prospect of Indonesia integrating a digitally driven economy and 6G connectivity is essential. This research analyzes the strategic readiness of one of Indonesian Telco Company to leverage 6G technology for scaling up its B2B service offerings. Data gathering was done through semi-structured interviews with important stakeholders alongside secondary materials while a qualitative explorative approach was utilized. Internal strengths and weaknesses were analyzed through SWOT analysis while PESTEL and Porter’s Five Forces frameworks assessed external opportunities and threats. The results indicate that the firm’s infrastructural prowess and group synergy positioning are major boons, but challenges such as ROI lucidity, competitive agility, and talent development remain significant issues. This work offers insights for stearing technological spendings in a regulated investment landscape while enabling the strategic foresight telecommunication investments in Indonesia on 6G deployment in the sector.

This study explores how digital leadership influences innovation in Indonesia’s public sector amid the nationwide implementation of GovTech INA Digital and the updated Electronic Based Government System (SPBE). Using a qualitative, phenomenological design, the research draws on nine in-depth interviews with central and regional government officials, complemented by document analysis and observation. Thematic analysis revealed four key themes: visionary and communicative leadership, organizational digital capability, innovation culture and citizen co-creation, and institutional agility amid policy shocks. Visionary and communicative leadership enabled shared alignment across agencies, while empowerment-based leadership strengthened organizational capability. A culture of openness and co-creation fostered sustained innovation, although bureaucratic rigidity still limited rapid experimentation. Institutional reforms and crises particularly the 2024 PDNS ransomware incident tested leadership agility, revealing that adaptive leaders effectively transformed disruption into opportunities for systemic learning. The findings conceptualize digital leadership as an adaptive capability operating across behavioral, structural, cultural, and contextual pathways. The study contributes to digital governance theory by demonstrating how leadership behaviors and institutional contexts co-evolve to sustain innovation. Policy implications highlight the need for leadership development programs that combine strategic foresight, digital literacy, and participatory governance to enhance resilience and innovation in public administration.

The Australian built environment is pivotal to achieving national net-zero targets, yet progress remains slow due to fragmented policy frameworks, low retrofit adoption, and uneven integration of emerging technologies. Despite these challenges, little research has applied a foresight perspective that both defines reproducible scenario thresholds and provides semi-quantitative comparisons tailored to Australia. This study integrates strategic foresight with international benchmarking to develop four scenarios for 2050: Business as Usual, Accelerated Sustainability, Technological Transformation, and Climate Resilience. Each scenario is underpinned by measurable thresholds for renovation rates, electrification, digital penetration, and low-carbon material uptake, and is evaluated through a scorecard spanning five outcome domains, with sensitivity and stress testing of high-leverage parameters. Findings indicate that an Accelerated Sustainability pathway, driven by deep retrofits of ≥3% annually, whole-life carbon policies, and renewable penetration of at least 70%, delivers the strongest combined performance across emissions reduction, liveability, and resilience. Technological Transformation offers adaptability and service quality but raises concerns over equity and cyber-dependence, while Climate Resilience maximises adaptation capacity yet risks under-delivering on mitigation. The study contributes a reproducible framework and transparent assumptions table to inform policy and industry road mapping, suggesting that a policy-led pathway coupling retrofits, electrification, and digital enablement provides the most balanced route towards a net zero and climate-resilient built environment by 2050.

Purpose This study analyses the transformative role of strategic foresight and organizational learning on corporate governance, empowering boards to solve large-scale sustainability problems in dynamic contexts. The research, which delves into insights from purpose based boards like Unilever and Mars, focuses on how foresight driven approaches enable boards to regenerate systems and create joint value with stakeholders to support the net positive agenda. Design/methodology/approach The paper presents a broad discursive literature review of foresight, learning in the organization, action learning and governance of the board. Furthermore, it progresses a general model demonstrating how boards can leverage stakeholder voices by means of feedforward loops, institutionalize learning processes and materialize strategic foresight. Real-life examples of how sustainability is being brought to the boardroom level help contextualize these insights. Findings The framework exposes that boards that consistently embed organizational learning, action learning and a learning organization culture, with feedforward loops from stakeholders, become more adaptive, accountable and future-ready. Examples of Unilever and Mars provides illustration on how such governance practices, steered by strategic foresight, allow boards to go beyond compliance and help produce net positive impact and deliver Sustainable Development Goal alignment. Research limitations/implications While it is a conceptual contribution, it merits empirical validation. Future research should investigate the applicability of the model across sectors and cultural contexts. Practical implications Foresight-oriented, sustainable decision-making can be fostered through board development initiatives, scenario workshops and action learning programs based on this model. Originality/value This paper combines foresight and organizational learning at the board level into a unique, practical model for improving governance capacity and resilience.

Purpose This study aims to investigate the influence of digital readiness, strategic foresight and strategic flexibility, in driving business processes digitalization (BPD) and performance of small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Design/methodology/approach A conceptual framework is developed through integrating organizational readiness theory (ORT) with the dynamic capabilities view (DCV). The hypotheses are tested using survey data collected from 284 SMEs in Oman. The dataset is analyzed using partial least squares structural equation modeling with the Smart-PLS software. Findings The analysis reveals that digital readiness and strategic flexibility both have a positive influence on BPD and performance. However, strategic foresight has no effect on the same. Moreover, BPD was found to be positively associated with performance. Finally, BPD mediates the effect of digital readiness and strategic flexibility on firm performance but does not mediate the link between strategic foresight and performance. Practical implications This study offers valuable insights for policymakers focused on fostering SME development, as well as for owners and managers of such enterprises, by identifying key drivers of BPD. It also highlights the role of digital readiness, strategic flexibility and BPD in enhancing performance. The findings emphasize the importance of developing and nurturing these critical features to support the digital transformation of SMEs, and ensuring their success. Originality/value This study makes two key contributions. First, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, it is the first study to integrate ORT with DCV, offering new insights into how readiness and dynamic capabilities enhance BPD and performance in SMEs. This approach emphasizes the critical relationship between readiness, dynamic capabilities and BPD in boosting SME performance. Second, this study highlights the mediating role of BPD as a vital link between digital readiness, strategic flexibility and performance outcomes.

The fast rise of artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous systems, and quantum technologies is changing the strategic context of national security. This paper examines how NATO countries can utilize new and Emerging Disruptive Technologies (EDTs) to enhance security and resilience across the Alliance. Using a multi-theoretical framework that combines dynamic capability theory, strategic foresight, military innovation, and technology governance, this discussion explores ways NATO could sense, seize upon, and transform itself in response to technological disruption. This article uses an exploratory qualitative design that combines policy and document analysis to examine institutional policy and lived stakeholder experiences related to technology integration and innovation management. The major issues emerging include variations in capacity for strategic foresight across member states that lead to bureaucratic inertia when some hold back others who want to move forward, put more fragmentation on already piecemeal interoperability standards, and add even more barriers because ethical normative differences are treated as if they belong elsewhere but weigh indeed. Defense Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic (DIANA) and the NATO Innovation Fund infrastructure notwithstanding, national procurement laws, security clearance regimes, and ethical misalignments limit their impacts. Responding to this analysis, therefore, requires proposing a strategic management approach under a four-pillar model that includes strategic foresight, organizational agility, capability integration, and ethical governance. A few of the recommendations are the establishment of a NATO-wide Joint Foresight and Technology Assessment Center, together with harmonization of dual-use procurement procedures, as well as the requirement for mandated national AI ethics frameworks in conformity with alliance-wide interoperability goals. These are steps toward making NATO adaptive and innovative under collective security postures while technological change is accelerated.

This paper briefly identifies qualitative themes from semi-structured feedback collected in online interviews/focus groups with forty public library staff in the American South about their foresight regarding library roles in civic engagement to promote racial justice. The research is timely in its engagement with stakeholders who are now directly impacted by the recent political and financial threats to federal funding and support of library-related agencies and assaults on public organizations that promote diversity and inclusion. Library staff provide potential directions of future engagement to support racial justice that spotlights their constructive role of resilience in response to these harsh political realities in the United States. Questions around the why’s, how’s, what’s, and specific actions integrated in data collection form a possible framework providing potential holistic structure of organization, content, representation, and delivery of civic engagement for racial justice in public library and communities to be developed further in future research.