Storm Track Research Articles

Spatial Memory of Notable Hurricane Tracks and Their Geophysical Hazards

Previous research has shown that people use a benchmark hurricane as part of their preparation and evacuation decision-making process. While hurricanes are a common occurrence along the Gulf Coast, research on personal memories of past storms is lacking. Particularly, how well do people remember the track and geophysical hazards (wind speed, storm surge, and total rainfall) of past storms? The accurate or inaccurate recollection and perception of previous storm details can influence personal responses to future storms, such as the decision to evacuate or take other life-saving actions. Survey responses of residents in Alabama and Mississippi were studied to determine if people were accurately able to recall a notable storm’s name when seeing an image of the storm’s track. Those who were able to identify the storm by its track were also asked if they could remember the storm’s maximum reported rainfall, maximum sustained winds, and storm surge at landfall. Results showed that there were statistically significant differences between the levels of accurate recall for different storms, with Hurricanes Katrina and Michael having the most correct responses. Regardless of the storm, most people struggled to remember geophysical hazards. The results of this study are important as they can inform broadcast meteorologists and emergency managers on forecast elements of the storm to better emphasize in future communication in comparison to the actual values from historical benchmark storms.

Synoptic Conditions at Pressure Different Levels for the Dust Storm of May/ 2022 Over Iraq

This study examines the severe dust storm from May 12-16/2022,culminating on May 15, with a comprehensive analysis and explanation. The weather maps from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) weather maps were used to identify systems and patterns that contributed to the storm's activity, continuity, and tracking as well as maps of pressure compounds and wind vectors in levels 1000 and 850 mbar that appear with the dust state for the same days accompanied by tracking patterns in the middle of the turbosphere 500 mbar to give a comprehensive analytical view of climate conditions at each level of pressure and higher systems supportive of their persistence on the surface. The northwesterly winds are the main factor that carries dust over long distances. The eastern desert in Syria, the Empty Quarter in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the desert of western Iran, and the desert region of western Iraq are among the main sources of dust In its atmosphere. Based on weather maps of the surface and upper levels of storm days, the concentration of dust reached very high levels in Iraq's airspace and surrounding countries, including Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, and Syria. The intensity of the dust gradually decreased as the area was affected by wet westerly winds with relatively low temperatures and a relative increase in wind speeds due to the impact of the study area on the atmospheric decline centered around the Turkish island of Cyprus.

Assessing South Indian Ocean tropical cyclone characteristics in HighResMIP simulations

AbstractSeveral damaging tropical cyclones (TCs) have occurred recently over the South Indian Ocean (SIO) region, causing enormous social and economic losses. Yet, while many studies have examined SIO TC characteristics using observations and reanalysis, only a few have assessed these characteristics specifically for this region in climate models, and fewer have investigated their projections under climate change. Here we do this for a historical (1980–2010) and future (2020–2050) period, using multimodel simulations from the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project, as well as examine biases in the historical period relative to a reanalysis (ERA5). The models have horizontal resolutions of 25–50 km, which has enabled an improved ability to represent tropical cyclones globally in previous studies. TempestExtremes software is employed to detect tropical storm and cyclone tracks. In cases where TempestExtremes cannot be applied due to a lack of requisite variables in a dataset, we instead examine extreme wind speeds in that dataset. For the historical period, we find considerable variation in model biases compared to ERA5, which itself exhibits realistic spatial patterns of tracks and their monthly distribution. Models do at least agree on positive biases in track frequency east of Madagascar and somewhat in the Mozambique Channel. However, the models and ERA5 only produce Category 3 tropical cyclones at best. Wind speeds for 25 km resolution models have much larger positive biases than for 50 km ones, suggesting the former can simulate even higher‐category tropical cyclones. Considerable intermodel variation is also found in track changes between the future and historical periods. No systematic intercategory pattern of change exists, and low signal‐to‐noise may obscure any such patterns in the limited timespan of available data. Thus, no meaningful conclusions can be drawn regarding changes in track intensity. Nevertheless, track frequency broadly decreases across models for the region, as does accumulated cyclone energy. An east‐to‐west shift in track location from east of Madagascar toward the Mozambique Channel is also implied by track frequency and wind speed changes. Our findings provide information to potentially improve storm resiliency in this vulnerable region.

Assessing the Spurious Impacts of Ice-Constraining Methods on the Climate Response to Sea-Ice Loss using an Idealised Aquaplanet GCM

Abstract Coupled climate model simulations designed to isolate the effects of Arctic sea-ice loss often apply artificial heating, either directly to the ice or through modification of the surface albedo, to constrain sea ice in the absence of other forcings. Recent work has shown that this approach may lead to an overestimation of the climate response to sea-ice loss. In this study, we assess the spurious impacts of ice-constraining methods on the climate of an idealised aquaplanet general circulation model (GCM) with thermodynamic sea ice. The true effect of sea-ice loss in this model is isolated by inducing ice loss through reduction of the freezing point of water, which does not require additional energy input. We compare results from freezing point modification experiments with experiments where sea-ice loss is induced using traditional ice-constraining methods, and confirm the result of previous work that traditional methods induce spurious additional warming. Furthermore, additional warming leads to an overestimation of the circulation response to sea-ice loss, which involves a weakening of the zonal wind and storm track activity in midlatitudes. Our results suggest that coupled model simulations with constrained sea ice should be treated with caution, especially in boreal summer, where the true effect of sea-ice loss is weakest but we find the largest spurious response. Given that our results may be sensitive to the simplicity of the model we use, we suggest that devising methods to quantify the spurious effects of ice-constraining methods in more sophisticated models should be an urgent priority for future work.

Implications for extreme midlatitude weather events of secondary flow associated with polar jets

AbstractIn the Earth's general circulation, polar jets act as baroclinic pumps of angular momentum and heat. Reanalysis datasets indicate that shear changes near jets induce upward displacements of the jet cores, suggesting a weakening thermodynamic pumping over the last 50 years. From secondary flow theory, a well‐established principle in fluid dynamics, an increased frequency of heatwaves and persistent winter storms is expected. The ageostrophic wind shear between 700 and 50 hPa indicates the strength of this secondary circulation. The weakening tendency during the reanalysis period also exists in multimodel simulations under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario for the 21st century. The reduction between the periods 2005–2025 and 2081–2100 reaches 18%, 5.3% and 19%, respectively, for the North America, Mid‐Europe and East Asia sectors of the Northern Hemisphere polar jet. Within this background, cold‐surge events are the result of synergic co‐working of several factors. The occurrence trend for transitional season winter extreme events also is examined. The winter extremes seemingly have larger temperature drops. However, in a warming climate, they emerge more rapidly from extreme cold states. The storm tracks, especially over North America, have equatorward extensions, indicating that winter storms can reach lower latitudes. Due to the temperature‐dependence of air viscosity, secondary flows decrease more slowly than the main zonal flow. This imposes an important adjustment to the traditional polar amplification effects on midlatitude winter extremes. During a warmer winter (the primary manifestation of a warmer climate), spatially uniform positive trends in cold extreme events are not expected. There are, however, regions experiencing more winter extremes. These regions show consistent patterns in both the reanalysis period and the remainder of the 21st century.

Intensification and Changing Spatial Extent of Heavy Rainfall in Urban Areas

AbstractUrban areas have been shown to impact rainfall by altering both its intensity and spatial structure at sub‐hourly and sub‐kilometer scales. However, there is currently no clear understanding of the precise pattern of change and the mechanisms that drive these changes. Since the hydrological response in urban areas is highly sensitive to such rainfall properties, understanding these changes is critical to improving our ability to assess urban flood risk. We use 7 years of high‐resolution weather radar data (4‐ or 5‐min and 1 km) to analyze changes in patterns of rainfall intensity, spatial structure, and storm evolution across eight urban areas within Europe and the United States. The use of the same methodology across the different cities enables a consistent comparison among them. We track convective rainfall events using a storm tracking algorithm and assess changes in rainfall properties in the upwind, center, and downwind regions of each city. We also investigate changes in the frequency of storm initiations, terminations, splitting, and merging. Our results show that urban areas act to intensify rainfall—mostly over them, but sometimes on their peripheries. Overall, larger cities tend to show the largest rainfall enhancements. Our findings highlight that rainfall spatial structure is altered over the urban core; usually resulting in more spatially concentrated rainfall. We also observe increased storm initiations over most cities and increased storm splitting over one. Given that demographic projections show that future urban population will increase, our results point toward an increased future flood risk in growing cities.

A Tale of Two Novembers: Confounding Influences on La Niña’s Relationship with Rainfall in Australia

Abstract Despite common background La Niña conditions, Australia was very dry in November 2020 and wet in November 2021. This paper aims to provide an explanation for this difference. Large-scale drivers of Australian rainfall, including El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean dipole, Southern Annular Mode, and Madden–Julian oscillation, were examined but did not provide obvious clues for the differences. We found that the absence (in 2020) or presence (in 2021) of an enhanced thermal wind and subtropical jet over the Australian continent contributed to the rainfall anomalies. In general, La Niña sets up warm sea surface temperatures around northern Australia, which enhances the meridional temperature gradient over the continent and hence thermal wind and subtropical jet. In November 2021, these warm sea surface temperatures, coupled with a persistent midlatitude trough, which advected cold air over the Australian continent, led to an enhanced meridional temperature gradient and subtropical jet over Australia. The enhanced jet provided favorable conditions for the development of rain-bearing weather systems across Australia. In 2020, the continent was warm, displacing the latitude of maximum meridional temperature gradient south of the continent, resulting in fewer instances of the subtropical jet over Australia, and little development of weather systems over the continent. We highlight that although La Niña tilts the odds to wetter conditions for Australia, in any given month, variability in temperatures over the continent can contribute to subtropical jet variability and resulting rainfall in ways which confound the normal expectation from La Niña. Significance Statement Forecasts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation are eagerly awaited, as the state of this climate driver has profound impacts on the likelihood of rainfall in regions around the world. While El Niño and La Niña do change rainfall likelihoods, the actual outcomes of these events are sometimes counter to expectation. This work explores one of the confounding factors to those expectations in the Australian context—the role of the meridional temperature gradient over the continent in modifying the storm track over Australia, which can disrupt the expected El Niño and La Niña teleconnections. We present case studies for two La Niña springs, highlighting that the Australian continent can help shape its own weather toward wetter or drier outcomes.

Global ocean carbon uptake enhanced by rainfall

Rain alters local sea surface physical and biogeochemical properties but its spatiotemporal variability has led to its overlook in global ocean carbon uptake studies. Different physical and chemical processes in the gaseous and liquid phases control the transfer of carbon dioxide (CO2) between the atmosphere and ocean. Rain impacts the interfacial flux by (1) increasing turbulence in the ocean and (2) modulating the air–sea CO2 concentration gradient. Concurrently, raindrops inject CO2 absorbed during their fall into the ocean through wet deposition. Here this study presents a comprehensive estimate of these effects on the global ocean carbon uptake over 2008–2018 based on observational products (satellite and in situ) and reanalysis. Using various representations of the ocean surface response to rainfall and different rain products, we show that rain increases the ocean carbon sink by +0.14–0.19 PgC yr−1 over 2008–2018, representing an increase of 5–7% of the ocean carbon uptake (2.66 PgC yr−1). Rain-induced interfacial flux and wet deposition have comparable orders of magnitude. The former mainly increases the CO2 sink in the tropics because strong rain rates and weak winds induce noticeable salinity and CO2 dilution. The latter is important in the tropics, storm track regions and the Southern Ocean.

Linking Future Precipitation Changes to Weather Features in CESM2‐LE

AbstractWeather features, such as extratropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers (ARs), and fronts, contribute to substantial amounts of precipitation globally and are associated with different precipitation characteristics. However, future changes in these characteristics, as well as their representation in climate models, remain uncertain. We attribute 6‐hourly accumulated precipitation to cyclones, moisture transport axes (AR‐like features), fronts, and cold air outbreaks, and the combinations thereof in 10 ensemble members of the CESM2‐LE between 1960 and 2100 under the SSP3‐7.0 scenario. We find that, despite some biases in both precipitation and weather features, CESM2‐LE adeptly represents the precipitation characteristics associated with the different combinations of weather features. The combinations of weather features that contribute most to precipitation in the present climate also contribute the most to future changes, both due to changes in intensity as well as frequency. While the increase in precipitation intensity dominates the overall response for total precipitation in the storm track regions, the precipitation intensity for the individual weather features does not necessarily change significantly. Instead, approximately half of the increase in precipitation intensity in the storm track regions can be attributed to a higher occurrence of the more intensely precipitating combinations of weather features, such as the co‐occurrence of extratropical cyclones, fronts, and moisture transport axes.

The atmospheric connection between the Arctic and Eurasia is underestimated in simulations with prescribed sea ice

Numerous analyses have demonstrated the impact of Arctic sea ice loss on Eurasia during wintertime. However, dynamical models inconsistently support the observed Arctic-Eurasia connection. The critical physical processes causing discrepancies remain unclear. Here, through numerical simulation, we found that the Arctic-Eurasian connection is underestimated when the model is forced with prescribed sea ice concentrations. The suppressed turbulent heat flux over the Arctic sea ice surface, due to the oversimplified sea ice states, is likely an important physical process leading to model spread. By incorporating the reanalyzed turbulent heat flux into the model, we enhance the heat transfer and reproduce the Arctic-Eurasian connection. The weakened Siberian Storm Track and reduced baroclinicity favors the strengthened Siberian High through eddy feedback forcing. These findings highlight the vital role of turbulent heat flux related to sea ice loss, emphasizing the urgent need for enhanced model fidelity in representing the sea ice processes.

Ecology of Intertidal Rocky Shores Related to Examples of Coastal Geology across Phanerozoic Time

The boundary between land and sea is among the most extensive and extreme ecological barriers on planet Earth. Intertidal organisms living at this junction are subject to potentially lethal conditions related to desiccation, temperature fluctuations, and wave shock. Although difficult to quantify at a global level, rocky coasts account for between a third and three-quarters of all shorelines today. Resistant to coastal erosion, rocky coasts also exhibit adaptations by marine invertebrates and marine algae within intertidal zones that are geographically widespread. Biotic composition is variable depending on the tidal range at any given place and on climatic differences between tropical and more temperate latitudes. Contemporary granite shores having low recession rates with well-established biotic zones are reviewed in three regions: Mount Desert Island in Maine, USA (44° N latitude), Mahé and Praslin islands in Seychelles (4°30′ S Latitude), and Lizard Island off the coast of Queensland, Australia (14°40′ S Latitude). The zonal composition and overall biotic diversity at these locations are compared, as well as the fossilization potential of key biota. Over the Phanerozoic time period during the last 538 million years, the ratio between land and ocean varied as a function of plate tectonics depending on the maximum dispersal or coalescence of continents and on relative changes in global sea level. Fossil biotas from a dozen paleoislands with dominant rocky shores that range from 485 million to 125,000 years in age are reviewed to show diversification through time, taking into account episodic mass extinctions. Relationships between storm tracks and volcanic eruptions that factor into physical disruptions are also considered as means of rapid burial and preservation. Themes related to rocky-shore ecology and paleoecology benefit from the cross-fertilization of ideas by marine biologists and marine paleontologists. It is hoped this review may attract a cohort of new students to these allied fields of study, especially in Asia, Africa, and South America.

Aerosol-Induced Changes in Atmospheric and Oceanic Heat Transports in the CESM2 Large Ensemble

Abstract The total poleward energy transport (PET) is set by the top of atmosphere radiation flux, and is therefore sensitive to any process which can alter those fluxes, particularly in the shortwave. One example is the direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic aerosols, which increase the local reflection of solar radiation back to space. The historic emission of sulphur dioxide, which peaked in the northern midlatitudes during the 1980s, has been proposed as a primary contributor to historic anomalies in cross-equatorial energy transport, as well as related processes such as a shift in the tropical rainband. In this study, we analyze simulations from the CESM2 large ensemble and single-forcing projects to better understand the forced response of PET to historical forcings. First, analysis of the single-forcing project reveals that the position of the ITCZ responds in a non-linear manner to greenhouse gas forcing in CESM2. This type of non-linearity has been found previously in the context of the aerosol-only simulations in the CESM2 single-forcing project, but may be the first identification of a similar effect in the greenhouse gas-only simulations. Second, through analysis of the full CESM2 large ensemble simulations, we find that anomalous heat transport occurred in both the atmosphere (through the mean meridional circulation and atmospheric eddies) and in the oceans (through the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific sectors) due to a variety of related processes including the Hadley cells, the midlatitude storm tracks, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and the Pacific wind-driven subtropical gyre.

Assessing the Tropospheric Temperature and Humidity Simulations in CMIP3/5/6 Models Using the AIRS Obs4MIPs V2.1 Data

AbstractIn this study, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Observations for Model Intercomparison Projects (Obs4MIPs) V2.1 tropospheric air temperature, specific humidity, and relative humidity data are utilized to evaluate the global tropospheric temperature and humidity simulations in the fully coupled global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3, 5, and 6 (CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6), and possible simulation improvement in CMIP6 models in comparison to CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Our analyses indicate that all three phases of CMIP models share similar tropospheric air temperature, specific humidity, and relative humidity biases in their multi‐model ensemble means relative to AIRS. Cold biases up to 4 K and positive relative humidity biases up to 20% are found in the free troposphere almost globally with maxima over the mid‐latitude storm tracks. Warm biases up to 2 K are seen over the Southern Ocean in the lower troposphere. Positive specific and relative humidity biases exist over the off‐equatorial oceans while negative specific and relative humidity biases are seen near the equator in the tropical free troposphere, which are related to the double‐intertropical convergence zone bias in the models. Both the air temperature and specific humidity biases are important to the relative humidity biases except in the tropical free troposphere where the specific humidity biases dominate. The tropospheric air temperature, specific humidity, and relative humidity biases are reduced from CMIP3 to CMIP5 and to CMIP6 at almost all pressure levels except at 300 hPa for specific humidity and in the boundary layer for relative humidity.

Deciphering Mean Flow–Eddy Interaction in Pacific–North American Teleconnection Linked to Storm Tracks at Subseasonal Time Scales

Abstract The features of large-scale atmospheric circulations, storm tracks, and the mean flow–eddy interaction during winter Pacific–North American (PNA) events are investigated using National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalysis data at subseasonal time scales from 1979 to 2022. The day-to-day variations of storm-track activity and streamfunction reveal that storm-track activity varies along the evolution of mean flow. To better understand storm-track variability with the mean flow–eddy interaction, further exploration is made by analyzing local energy energetics. The changes in horizontal and vertical baroclinic energy conversions from background flow correspond to the storm-track anomalies over the North Pacific, indicating that the anomalies in storm tracks are due to the anomalous mean flow associated with PNA patterns impacting energy conversion through mean flow–eddy interaction. Eddy feedback driven by vorticity and heat fluxes is analyzed. This provides a concrete illustration of how eddy feedback serves as a positive factor for the upper-tropospheric circulation anomalies associated with the PNA pattern. Significance Statement The background flow plays a crucial role in governing storm-track dynamics. Our emphasis is on the Pacific storm tracks (PST) and their relation to Pacific–North American (PNA) patterns at subseasonal time scales. We unveil the relationship between anomalies of PST and PNA patterns using local energetics and eddy feedback on a day-by-day basis. It is noteworthy that the evolution of anomalous storm tracks during PNA events is the manifestation of mean flow–eddy interaction. Additionally, we provide detailed confirmation of the impact of anomalous storm tracks on large-scale anomalies associated with the PNA pattern.

Spatiotemporal methods for estimating subsurface ocean thermal response to tropical cyclones

Abstract. Tropical cyclones (TCs), driven by heat exchange between the air and sea, pose a substantial risk to many communities around the world. Accurate characterization of the subsurface ocean thermal response to TC passage is crucial for accurate TC intensity forecasts and an understanding of the role that TCs play in the global climate system. However, that characterization is complicated by the high-noise ocean environment, correlations inherent in spatiotemporal data, relative scarcity of in situ observations, and the entanglement of the TC-induced signal with seasonal signals. We present a general methodological framework that addresses these difficulties, integrating existing techniques in seasonal mean field estimation, Gaussian process modeling, and nonparametric regression into an ANOVA decomposition model. Importantly, we improve upon past work by properly handling seasonality, providing rigorous uncertainty quantification, and treating time as a continuous variable, rather than producing estimates that are binned in time. This ANOVA model is estimated using in situ subsurface temperature profiles from the Argo fleet of autonomous floats through a multistep procedure, which (1) characterizes the upper-ocean seasonal shift during the TC season, (2) models the variability in the temperature observations, and (3) fits a thin-plate spline using the variability estimates to account for heteroskedasticity and correlation between the observations. This spline fit reveals the ocean thermal response to the TC passage. Through this framework, we obtain new scientific insights into the interaction between TCs and the ocean on a global scale, including a three-dimensional characterization of the near-surface and subsurface cooling along the TC storm track and the mixing-induced subsurface warming on the track's right side.

Heatwave Location Changes in Relation to Rossby Wave Phase Speed

AbstractSurface anticyclones connected to the ridge of an upper‐tropospheric Rossby wave are the main dynamical drivers of mid‐latitude summer heatwaves. It is, however, unclear to what extent an anomalously low zonal phase speed of the wave in the upper troposphere is necessary for persistent temperature extremes at the surface. Here, we use spectral decomposition to separate fast and slow synoptic‐scale waves. A composite analysis of ERA5 reanalysis data reveals that, while in some regions heatwaves become more frequent during episodes of weak or no phase propagation, temperature extremes in other regions are commonly associated with more rapidly eastward propagating Rossby waves. Reflected in the mean heatwave duration as well, this relationship is possibly linked to a longitudinal phase preference of slow and fast waves or a meridional storm track shift. These findings open up new questions about the influence of mid‐latitude dynamics on temperature extremes.

Untangling the role of convective and circulation features on multi-scales in modulating tracks of tropical cyclones formed over the Bay of Bengal

In this study, we analysed the influence of prevailing atmospheric oscillations at different scales on tropical cyclones (TC) movement over the Bay of Bengal. Composite analysis of dynamic and thermodynamic variables are investigated with and without TC during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. The composite features analysed at multi-scales clearly suggests that pre-monsoon TC track predominantly determine by a net interaction of mean climatology environment (CLM) and anomalies associated with sub-seasonal oscillations. Whereas, during post-monsoon CLM is critical in governing the storm track. Similarly, the study also signifies that CLM and sub-seasonal anomalies jointly provide guiding effect for various TC paths.

Mesoscale Ocean–Atmosphere Coupling Effects on the North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water

Abstract Subtropical mode water (STMW) is a thick layer of water mass characterized by homogeneous properties within the main pycnocline, important for oceanic oxygen utilization, carbon sequestration, and climate regulation. North Pacific STMW is formed in the Kuroshio Extension region, where vigorous mesoscale eddies strongly interact with the atmosphere. However, it remains unknown how such mesoscale ocean–atmosphere (MOA) coupling affects the STMW formation. By conducting twin simulations with an eddy-resolving global climate model, we find that approximately 25% more STMW is formed with the MOA coupling than without it. This is attributable to a significant increase in ocean latent heat release primarily driven by higher wind speed over the STMW formation region, which is associated with the southward deflection of storm tracks in response to oceanic mesoscale imprints. Such enhanced surface latent heat loss overwhelms the stronger upper-ocean restratification induced by vertical eddy and turbulent heat transport, leading to the formation of colder and denser STMW in the presence of MOA coupling. Further investigation of a multimodel and multiresolution ensemble of global coupled models reveals that the agreement between the STMW simulation in eddy-present/rich coupled models and observations is superior to that of eddy-free ones, likely due to more realistic representation of MOA coupling. However, the ocean-alone model simulations show significant limitations in improving STMW production, even with refined model resolution. This indicates the importance of incorporating the MOA coupling into Earth system models to alleviate biases in STMW and associated climatic and biogeochemical impacts. Significance Statement North Pacific subtropical mode water (STMW) is a distinct pycnostad within the main thermocline located south of the Kuroshio Extension. As short-term heat and carbon silos, STMW is traditionally thought to be driven by the basin-scale atmospheric forcing. The role of air–sea interactions at mesoscales residing in the Kuroshio Extension region has been overlooked. Here, we demonstrate that the strong thermal feedback of mesoscale sea surface temperature anomalies is not negligible for the STMW formation. This is achieved by accelerating wind and consequently promoting ocean latent heat release. Our results pinpoint the significance of accounting for the role of oceanic mesoscale feedback in improving the simulation of STMW as well as its climatic and biogeochemical impacts in Earth system models.

New perspectives on South Atlantic storm track through an automatic method for detecting extratropical cyclones' lifecycle

AbstractThis study introduces new insights into the climatology of South Atlantic (SAt) cyclones by employing a novel cyclone life cycle detection method, the CycloPhaser. Utilizing the minimum relative vorticity series and its derivative at the cyclone centre, the program effectively identifies distinct phases in the cyclone life cycle. Cyclone tracks are obtained through the analysis of relative vorticity at 850 hPa, using the ERA5 dataset. The study identified six main cyclone life cycle patterns from the analysis of 28,458 systems. The predominant cyclone type, accounting for approximately 60% of the analysed systems, exhibited a four‐phase configuration: incipient, intensification, mature and decay. Detailed statistics for each developmental phase and the overall life cycle are presented, offering valuable comparisons and new insights while corroborating previous research findings. Key genesis regions in the SAt are identified, along with track density maps that reveal distinct preferences in cyclone developmental cycle. The main outcome of this study is the demonstration that the automated classification procedure enables the analysis of cyclones' life cycles to be conducted promptly and with low computing costs, facilitating the comprehensive study of cyclone behaviour with high efficiency.

Landscape configuration and storm characteristics drive spatial patterns of wind disturbance in boreal forest landscapes

ContextWind is an important disturbance in circumboreal forests, and its frequency and severity may change with climate change, highlighting the need to understand the drivers of wind disturbance. Currently, how landscape configuration drives wind disturbance is poorly understood.ObjectivesWe investigated whether and how landscape configuration is related to the extent and spatial pattern of wind disturbance, and how these relationships vary between windstorms and thunderstorms.MethodsWe used salvage logging data after 16 storms that occurred in Finland between 2011 and 2021. We placed a total of 301 landscapes, each encompassing an area of 8024 ha, within the storm tracks and used regression models to test how wind disturbance extent, disturbance patch size, number of disturbance patches, and disturbance patch clustering were related to landscape configuration and storm characteristics.ResultsIncreasing mean gap size and edge density, including permanent openings (e.g., lakes) and recent harvest gaps, increased disturbance extent, disturbance patch size, and number of disturbance patches. Conversely, increasing mean harvest gap size decreased disturbance patch clustering. Increasing wind speed had the largest contribution to increasing disturbance extent and number of disturbance patches, and decreasing disturbance patch clustering, with the magnitude of the effect varying between windstorms and thunderstorms.ConclusionsThe extent and spatial pattern of wind disturbances varied with landscape configuration and storm characteristics. Disturbance patches were larger in landscapes with large canopy gaps, resulting in a greater disturbance extent, exacerbated by increasing wind speed and thunderstorm development.