Steady-state Welfare Research Articles

Money, Neutrality of Consumption Taxes, and Growth in Intertemporal Optimizing Models

This paper considers the effects of a proportional consumption tax with the same rate over time on the real growth path of a monetary economy. The analysis uses a variety of stylized monetary growth models in which the individual's consumption-saving decision is based on intertemporal utility maximization (e.g. the money-in-utility, transaction-costs, and cash-in-advance models). The neutrality of consumption taxation depends on the assumed role of money in the respective models, even though the tax revenue collected is fully rebated to consumers as lump-sum transfers. The consumption tax is generally superior to inflation tax (i.e. the rate of monetary growth) in terms of steady-state welfare, as long as the labour supply is fixed. JEL Classification Numbers: E21, E41, E62, H24

Intergenerational Redistribution with Short‐lived Governments

We study the politics of intergenerational redistribution in an overlapping generations model with short-lived governments. The successive governments—who care about the welfare of the currently living generations and possibly about campaign contributions—are unable to pre-commit the future course of redistributive taxation. In a stationary politico-economic equilibrium, the intergenerational transfer in each period depends on the current value of the state variable and all expectations about future political outcomes are fulfilled. We find that there exist multiple stationary equilibria in many political settings. Steady-state welfare is often lower than it would be in the absence of redistributive politics.

A Quantitative Analysis of Capital Income Taxation

This paper studies the quantitative impact of eliminating capital income taxation on capital accumulation and steady-state welfare in a general equilibrium model with overlapping generations of sixty-five-period-lived individuals who face idiosyncratic earnings risk, borrowing constraints, and life-span uncertainty. Under a wide range of parameter configurations, the capital income tax rate that maximizes steady-state welfare is positive, even though eliminating it completely would raise the steady-state capital stock toward the Golden Rule. This is because the tax burden is shifted toward the younger and liquidity constrained years, reducing the individuals' ability to self-insure. Copyright 1998 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

Time preference and capital mobility in an OLG model with land.

This paper examines the pattern of capital mobility in a two-country overlapping generations world in which production uses three inputs: capital, labor and land. The steady-state welfare consequences of opening countries to financial capital or labor mobility are then compared. In particular, it is shown that capital mobility does not equalize standards of living across countries. To achieve this goal, one has to rely on labor mobility.

Welfare Effects of Capital Taxation in a Small Open Economy

In a small open economy, the welfare effect of capital taxation depends on the allocation of the tax revenue as well as the tax system. If tax revenues are used to finance debt or government spending, an increase in either residential or territorial capital taxation will reduce the welfare of the representative individual. If tax revenues are transferred intergenerationally, an increase in the residential capital tax rate will increase the steady-state welfare when the after-tax interest rate is greater than the growth rate. If the revenue is rebated to the tax payer, an introduction of territorial capital taxation may increase welfare when the growth rate is relatively high. In the case where either the revenue from residential capital taxation is rebated to the tax payer or the revenue from territorial capital taxation is transferred intergenerationally, the welfare-maximizing tax rate appears to be zero.

From Autarky to Integration: Imitation, Foreign Borrowing, and Growth

The effects on growth of the integration of an autarkic country into the world economy are analyzed, focusing on the differing roles of imitation and innovation in human capital accumulation. The country initially concentrates on imitation of foreign knowledge; subsequently, as it approaches the knowledge frontier, innovation plays a greater role. Late developers catch up with the rest of the world more rapidly than early developers, reflecting the relatively large imitation opportunity available to them. Restrictions on foreign borrowing reduce the speed of adjustment to the steady state and lower growth and welfare for the country that imposes them.

Welfare Cost of (Low) Inflation: A General Equilibrium Perspective

This paper provides general equilibrium estimates of the steady-state welfare gains of lowering inflation from a low level to close to price stability, using an overlapping-generations growth model. Money demand is modeled on the basis that real money balances are a factor of production. Assuming a standard Fisher equation modified by the presence of an income tax, it is found that inflation unambiguously reduces capital intensity, drives up the before-tax real rate of return to capital, and unambiguously imposes a life-time welfare cost. This welfare cost is, however, quantitatively very modest (under 0.2 percent of GDP annually) within reasonable ranges of all parameter values.

Welfare Cost of (Low) Inflation: A General Equilibrium Perspective

This paper provides general equilibrium estimates of the steady-state welfare gains of lowering inflation from a low level to close to price stability, using an overlapping-generations growth model. Money demand is modeled on the basis that real money balances are a factor of production. Assuming a standard Fisher equation modified by the presence of an income tax, it is found that inflation unambiguously reduces capital intensity, drives up the before-tax real rate of return to capital, and unambiguously imposes a life-time welfare cost. This welfare cost is, however, quantitatively very modest (under 0.2 percent of GDP annually) within reasonable ranges of all parameter values.

Price-Cap Regulation and Inefficiency in Relative Pricing

The allocative efficiency properties of three price-cap schemes are compared. The scheme that uses lagged quantities in the price index and has a fixed cap works well when the firm is myopic but generates inefficient relative prices otherwise. With myopia prices are efficient and welfare is higher than with equal pricing, but the gain to the firm comes at the expense of lower consumer surplus. When the firm is not myopic pricing can be so inefficient that steady-state welfare is below the no-regulation level.

When) is Consumption Taxation Equivalent to Wage Taxation ?

This article deals with the question of the equivalence between consumption taxationand wage income taxation. It is argued that when individuals behave according to strict life-cycle reasons, these taxes are not equivalent in either of the standard senses. Although a balanced-budget increase in the wage tax unambiguously de creases the steady-state capital-labor ratio, a balanced-budget increase in the consumption tax may have any impact on long-run capital accumulation. A differential incidence shift from wage to consumption taxation is associated with a higher value of the steady-state capital-labor ratio and increases welfare when the starting point is a dynamically efficient steady state. However, in the presence of intergen erational altruism, consumption and wage taxes are structurally equivalent (i.e., both in balanced-budget terms and under a differential incidence approach). An increase in any of them entails no effect on the steady-state capital-labor ratio and welfare level, with the only consequence of transferring resources away from the private sector and to the government.

Time preference and labour migration in an OLG model with land and capital.

"This paper constructs a two-country migration model in the lines of Galor (1986), in which the world population consists of individuals of two types who have different time preferences. Production uses three inputs: mobile labour, immobile capital and land. It is shown that both countries are necessarily inhabited by agents of both types and exhibit equal density of population and equal interest rate at the steady state equilibrium of the integrated economy. The steady state welfare implications of international labour migration are studied."

Liquidity of secondary capital markets: Allocative efficiency and the maturity composition of the capital stock

We investigate the function of liquid financial markets for the allocation of productive capital. We consider an economy where agents endogenously choose among capital production technologies with differing gestation periods. Long-gestation capital investments must be “rolled-over” in secondary capital markets. The use of such investment technologies therefore requires the support of liquid financial markets. We investigate how changes in the liquidity of these markets (i.e., in the costs of transacting) affect (a) the choice of capital production technology, (b) per capita income and the per capita capital stock, (c) the level of financial market activity, (d) the real return on savings and (e) welfare in a steady state equilibrium. Improvements in financial market liquidity raise rates of return on savings, and favor the increased use of long gestation capital investments. However, such improvements may or may not lead to higher levels of real activity or steady state welfare. We describe conditions under which various outcomes occur.

Tariffs and Welfare In A Dynamic Differentiated Oligopoly*

AbstractUsing a dynamic general‐equilibrium environment with strategically interacting oligopolists, this paper demonstrates that dynamic elements will significantly alter the equilibrium effects of tariff policy. In particular, the tariff rate which maximizes aggregate steady state welfare is decreasing in the level of adjustment costs. Furthermore, when tariff rates change, there are short‐run welfare losses along the dynamic transition path to the new steady state. Gradual implementation of policy can avoid these losses. This provides a justification for the gradual implementation of tariff reductions in the GATT rounds or in the Free Trade Agreement between Canada and the United States.

Inventory accumulation in a search-based monetary economy

This paper explores the implications of a search-based model of money for the linkage between steady state inventory accumulation, inflation, and welfare. Because individual traders in the search economy do not internalize the positive effects inventory accumulation and search effort have on the aggregate economy, they are too low relative to social efficiency. It is established that a tax on money balances can alleviate these externalities and improve aggregate welfare. It does so by (i) directly increasing the optimal search intensity choices of the individual trader and (ii) stimulating the accumulation of inventories through a ‘Mundeil-Tobin’ type effect. An increase in the equilibrium level of inventory accumulation also positively affects search effort. The implications for optimal monetary policy are discussed.

The choice of factor mobility in a dynamic world

This paper compares the steady-state welfare implications of opening a two-country overlapping-generations world to international labor or capital mobility. By capturing the dual nature of labor mobility through the effect of migrants' savings on capital formation, this dynamic setting recovers the asymmetry between capital and labor denied to them in the existing static literature. It is shown that the optimal choice of factor mobility from a national viewpoint depends on the state of the economy with respect to the Golden Rule and on migrants' average savings ratio with respect to that of non-migrants.

The Optimal Rate of Money Creation in an Overlapping Generations Model: Numerical Simulations for the U.S. Economy

This paper develops a large scale overlapping generations model and calibrates it for the U.S. economy. Simulations with the model show that the steady state welfare maximizing inflation rate may be positive, although the numerical results are not robust. It is also shown, however, that increases in the inflation rate are never Pareto efficient because during the transition to the new steady state at least some generations are made worse-off. Using an optimality criterion that takes into account the welfare of all generations, it is found that implementing Friedman’s rule is a Pareto superior policy, and that the efficiency gains derived from implementing such rule could be substantial.

The Optimal Rate of Money Creation in an Overlapping Generations Model: Numerical Simulations for the U.S. Economy

This paper develops a large scale overlapping generations model and calibrates it for the U.S. economy. Simulations with the model show that the steady state welfare maximizing inflation rate may be positive, although the numerical results are not robust. It is also shown, however, that increases in the inflation rate are never Pareto efficient because during the transition to the new steady state at least some generations are made worse-off. Using an optimality criterion that takes into account the welfare of all generations, it is found that implementing Friedman’s rule is a Pareto superior policy, and that the efficiency gains derived from implementing such rule could be substantial.

Interest on Reserves and Sunspot Equilibria: Friedman's Proposal Reconsidered

Friedman's (1960) proposal to pay interest on (required) reserves is considered in a setting that eliminates the indeterminacy of steady-state equilibrium discussed by Sargent and Wallace (1985). In an overlapping-generations model where the real rate of interest is technologically determined, the payment of interest on reserves results in a determinate, Pareto optimal steady-state equilibrium. However, interest payments on reserves reduce the steady-state welfare of all young agents and, for many economies, result in the existence of stationary sunspot equilibria. This is the case even if such equilibria cannot exist when reserves do not earn interest.

Imperfect annuity markets, unintended bequests, and the optimal age structure of social security benefits

The social security program now provides a constant real benefit throughout each retirees lifetime. This paper examines whether total welfare would rise if benefits were lower in early retirement years (when most individuals have some saving with which to finance consumption) and higher in later years (when the uncertainty of survival and the absence of actuarially fair private annuities makes the availability of social security benefits more important.) The analysis shows that there is a potentially important difference between the structure of benefits that would be preferred by the current population of workers and retirees and the structure of benefits that would maximize the steady state level of social welfare. This difference reflects the role of unintended bequests. The provision of higher benefits to older retirees reduces individually optimal savings and therefore the level of unintended bequests. While those bequests may have no value to the retirees, they are clearly of value to the young workers who will receive those bequests. More generally, the system of level benefits raises the steady state level of the capital stock and of total real income. The present paper provides an explicit analysis of a case in which the current workers want benefits to increase with age while the social security system that maximizes steady state welfare would provide higher benefits to young retirees than to the very old.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Corporate taxation and the efficiency gains of the 1986 Tax Reform Act

The 1986 Tax Reform Act, while having little effect on the overall effective tax rate on U.S. capital income, did reduce significantly the difference in effective taxation of corporate and noncorporate capital within a number of U.S. industries. The Mutual Production Model developed in Gravelle and Kotlikoff (1989) can be used to study the efficiency gains from the reduction in corporate tax wedges within industries. Unlike the Harberger Model, the Mutual Production Model permits both corporate and noncorporate firms to produce the same goods and, therefore, to coexist within a given industry. This paper develops an 11 industry - 55 year dynamic life cycle version of the Mutual Production Model. We use this model to study the steady state efficiency gains associated with the new law. While we do not simulate the economy's transition path, our steady state welfare changes are those that arise from compensating transitional generations for the first order redistribution of income associated with the Tax Reform. We find that the 1986 Tax Reform law reduces excess burden by .85 percent of our model's economy's present value of consumption. This efficiency gain reflects the Tax Reform's reduction in corporate non-corporate tax wedges, particularly in those industries with significant non-corporate production. Measured as a flow the 1988 estimated efficiency gain from the Tax Reform Act is $31 billion.