Statistical Frequency Analysis Research Articles

Stochastic semi-continuous simulation for extreme flood estimation in catchments with combined rainfall–snowmelt flood regimes

Abstract. Simulation methods for extreme flood estimation represent an important complement to statistical flood frequency analysis because a spectrum of catchment conditions potentially leading to extreme flows can be assessed. In this paper, stochastic, semi-continuous simulation is used to estimate extreme floods in three catchments located in Norway, all of which are characterised by flood regimes in which snowmelt often has a significant role. The simulations are based on SCHADEX, which couples a precipitation probabilistic model with a hydrological simulation such that an exhaustive set of catchment conditions and responses is simulated. The precipitation probabilistic model is conditioned by regional weather patterns, and a bottom–up classification procedure was used to define a set of weather patterns producing extreme precipitation in Norway. SCHADEX estimates for the 1000-year (Q1000) discharge are compared with those of several standard methods, including event-based and long-term simulations which use a single extreme precipitation sequence as input to a hydrological model, statistical flood frequency analysis based on the annual maximum series, and the GRADEX method. The comparison suggests that the combination of a precipitation probabilistic model with a long-term simulation of catchment conditions, including snowmelt, produces estimates for given return periods which are more in line with those based on statistical flood frequency analysis, as compared with the standard simulation methods, in two of the catchments. In the third case, the SCHADEX method gives higher estimates than statistical flood frequency analysis and further suggests that the seasonality of the most likely Q1000 events differs from that of the annual maximum flows. The semi-continuous stochastic simulation method highlights the importance of considering the joint probability of extreme precipitation, snowmelt rates and catchment saturation states when assigning return periods to floods estimated by precipitation-runoff methods. The SCHADEX methodology, as applied here, is dependent on observed discharge data for calibration of a hydrological model, and further study to extend its application to ungauged catchments would significantly enhance its versatility.

Heat wave hazard modelling: Qatar case study

Heat waves are considered to be the major cause of environmental and weather-related fatalities. Heat waves also have a severe impact on people with chronic cardiac and respiratory diseases, such as asthma. With climate change and global warming processes taking place, general global climatic models predict that heat wave events will increase in frequency, duration, and intensity. Therefore, heat wave modelling has attracted considerable attention from scientists and decision-makers alike. Yet it remains challenging, complex, and an imperative problem. This complexity is introduced mainly by land surface and atmospheric spatial variability, such as land use and air pollution concentration. This study addresses this spatial complexity by using remotely sensed thermal data in the form of Land Surface Temperature (LST) images, along with meteorological data to model heat waves in Qatar. Multi-criteria/multi-parameters/multi-layer analysis is carried out using Geographic Information System (GIS) by combining many complex parameters that influence or determine heat waves in the region. Gumble statistical frequency analysis is carried out on time series data to predict heat wave events. Results from the model show that a high portion of the population's vulnerable age groups are likely to be severely affected by future heat wave events in Qatar- based on a five year return period. The analysis revealed that at least 87% of children aged 4 or under would be exposed to a very high intensity level of heat wave events, while more than 86% of elderly people, over 65 years of age, would be exposed to the same intensity level of hazard. The study proves that thermal satellite imaging improves heat wave hazard modelling, as it addresses the complex spatial variability of land surface. The developed model is applicable at a local, as well as regional, scale, making an original contribution to heat wave modelling.

Trend, Independence, Stationarity, and Homogeneity Tests on Maximum Rainfall Series of Standard Durations Recorded in Turkey

Data of 14 standard duration annual maximum rainfall series with durations of 5 min to 24 h and lengths between 30 and 73 years up to 2010 that were recorded in Turkey are used. Mann-Kendall and linear regression trend, von Neumann independence, Wald-Wolfowitz stationarity, and Mann-Whitney homogeneity tests are applied on 155 complete series with a 24-h duration and 23 complete series with 14 standard durations. Next, only the linear regression test is applied on 174 incomplete series of 14 standard durations. The results of these tests indicate that almost 90% of all annual maximum rainfall series are trend free, independent, stationary, and homogeneous at a critical probability of 5%. Finally, the newly proposed Sen’s 1∶1 trend line method is applied to some series and its results are observed to be in agreement with both the Mann-Kendall and linear regression tests. It is concluded that standard duration annual maximum rainfall series in Turkey can be generally treated as independent and identically distributed random variables, which allow conventional intensity-duration-frequency calculations to be performed by statistical frequency analysis.

Associated analysis of single nucleotide polymorphisms found on exon 3 of the IGF-1 gene with Tibetan miniature pig growth traits

The IGF-1 gene is an important regulating factor that has a growth-promoting effect on growth hormone. The IGF-1 gene promotes muscle cell differentiation in the muscle cell formation process. The IGF-1 gene also regulates the growth of skeletal muscle during skeletal muscle growth. In addition, the IGF-1 gene plays an important role in the formation of mammals and poultry embryos, and the process of postnatal growth. The IGF-1 gene has been implicated as a candidate gene for the regulation of pig growth traits. We analyzed exon 3 of the IGF-1 gene polymorphism in Tibetan miniature pigs (N = 128) by polymerase chain reaction-single-strand conformation polymorphism and DNA sequencing. One single nucleotide polymorphism (T40C) was found on exon 3 of the IGF-1 gene. Statistical analysis of genotype frequencies revealed that the T allele was dominant in Tibetan miniature pigs at the T40C locus. The association analysis showed that the IGF-1 mutation had an effect on the body weight, body length, and chest circumference of pigs aged 6-8 months. In addition, the IGF-1 mutation had an effect on body weight in pigs aged 9-11 months (P < 0.05). We speculated that the pigs with the TT genotype grow more rapidly compared to those with the TC genotype. The TC genotype of the Tibetan miniature pig has a smaller body type. This information provides a theoretical basis for the genetic background of Tibetan miniature pigs.

Probabilistic Models of Maximum Precipitation for Designing Sewerage

Abstract Pluviographic measurement results from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) Wrocław–Strachowice meteorological station from the years 1960–2009 constitute the basis for this paper. While conducting the statistical analysis of precipitation occurrence frequency, the criterion of interval precipitation amounts was assumed in order to isolate the intensive rainfalls from the pluviograms, which made it possible to select a number of the most intensive rainfalls in each year. A total of 514 synthetic rainfall instances were isolated, which were then were arranged according to non-increasing amounts in 16 duration intervals. This was the basis to propose the unification of the development methodology of probabilistic models for maximum precipitation amounts, reliable in the designing and verification of drain flow capacity, especially for low probability of precipitation occurrence. Maximum precipitation models for Wrocław were developed (average annual precipitation H = 590 mm).

Flood frequency analysis based on simulated peak discharges

Flood frequency approaches vary from statistical methods, directly applied on the observed annual maximum flood series, to adopting rainfall–runoff simulation models that transform design rainfalls to flood discharges. Reliance on statistical flood frequency analysis depends on several factors such as the selected probability distribution function, estimation of the function parameters, possible outliers, and length of the observed flood series. Through adopting the simulation approach in this paper, watershed-average rainfalls of various occurrence probabilities were transformed into the corresponding peak discharges using a calibrated hydrological model. A Monte Carlo scheme was employed to consider the uncertainties involved in rainfall spatial patterns and antecedent soil moisture condition (AMC). For any given rainfall depth, realizations of rainfall spatial distribution and AMC conditions were entered as inputs to the model. Then, floods of different return periods were simulated by transforming rainfall to runoff. The approach was applied to Tangrah watershed in northeastern Iran. It was deduced that the spatial rainfall distribution and the AMCs exerted a varying influence on the peak discharge of different return periods. Comparing the results of the simulation approach with those of the statistical frequency analysis revealed that, for a given return period, flood quantiles based on the observed series were greater than the corresponding simulated discharges. It is also worthy to note that existence of outliers and the selection of the statistical distribution function has a major effect in increasing the differences between the results of the two approaches.

혼합분포함수를 이용한 동해 지진자료의 확률론적 빈도해석

최근 국내에서는 지진의 발생빈도가 과거와 비교하여 점차적으로 증가하고 있으며, 주변국가인 일본과 중국에서도 대규모의 지진으로 인한 피해가 빈번하게 발생하면서 지진에 대한 위험도가 증가하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 지진으로 발생되는 피해에 대비하기 위하여 동해 연안의 지진자료에 확률론적 빈도해석을 적용하여 지진의 발생확률 및 발생빈도를 정량적으로 산정하였다. 연도별 최대값을 활용하는 수문빈도해석과는 다르게 연도별 지진의 발생유무를 반영하기 위하여 혼합분포함수를 활용하였으며, 분포모형으로는 Gumbel, Lognormal, Gamma, Weibull 분포를 적용하였다. 적용결과, 국내의 지진-규모식보다 혼합분포모형이 재현기간에 대하여 지진규모를 작게 산정되는 것을 확인할 수 있었으며, 분포모형 중 500년 이하의 재현기간에 대해서는 혼합 Gumbel, Weibull 분포모형이, 500년 이상의 재현기간에서는 혼합 Lognormal, Gamma 분포모형이 지진-규모식과 가장 근접한 결과를 도출하였다. 본 연구의 비교 분석을 위하여 사용된 규모-빈도식에서는 <TEX>$M_w$</TEX> 8.0 이상의 관측자료가 존재하지 않아 그 이상 규모의 지진에 대한 발생빈도의 정확도가 낮으며, 지진빈도해석 역시 31개의 적은 수의 지진 관측자료를 이용하여 1,000년 빈도의 지진규모를 추정하였으므로, 신뢰성이 낮은 한계가 존재한다. 하지만 본 연구는 국내의 관측자료를 활용하여 확률론적 지진빈도해석을 수행함으로써, 새로운 접근방법으로 지진의 발생빈도를 추정하였다는데 의의가 있다. In Korea, the occurrence frequency of earthquakes has recently increased compared to the past. In neighboring countries such as Japan and China, damage from major earthquakes has also increased leading to high earthquake risk. This study quantitatively estimated the occurrence probability and frequency of huge earthquake using statistical frequency analysis on instrumental earthquake data at East sea in order to cope with earthquake damage. After adapting Various distribution functions such as Gumbel, Lognormal, Gamma, and Weibull for earthquake data, we applied mixed distributions to reflect the characteristics of the occurrence of earthquakes. The results show that the mixed models estimated earthquake magnitude larger than the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) equation, and the mixed Gumbel distribution estimated most closed values with the G-R equation. It was found that the G-R equation is very limited to estimate a huge earthquake since there is no observed data over magnitude 8.0 and the frequency analysis is also limited to be applied in practice because the lack of data induces high uncertainty on the estimates of 1,000 year-earthquake. However, this study has an experiential significance in that the statistical frequency analysis was applied to instrumental earthquake data at East sea as an alternative.

Which Craniofacial Fractures Are Associated With External Auditory Canal Bleeding?

External auditory canal bleeding (EACB) after facial trauma has been strongly associated with skull base fractures; however, EACB also can occur with other craniofacial fractures. The aim of this study was to analyze the frequency and causes of EACB in different craniofacial fracture types. The investigators used a retrospective cohort study design and enrolled a sample composed of patients with craniofacial fractures evaluated and treated from April 2006 through December 2011. The predictor variable was fracture type, which was categorized into 4 types: skull base fracture, midface fracture, and mandibular fracture with and without involvement of the condyle. The frequency of EACB among fracture types was compared with SPSS 13.0 (SPSS, Inc, Chicago, IL) and χ(2) test. Computed tomographic (CT) scans were analyzed to determine the cause of EACB. EACB was found in 43 of 573 craniofacial fracture cases, with a frequency of 7.5%. There were 19 EACB sides in 123 skull base fracture cases (15.4%), 26 EACB sides in 150 mandibular fracture cases involving the 196 condyles (13.3%; of these 196 condyles, 92.3% were intracapsular condylar fractures [ICFs]), 2 EACB sides in 150 mandibular fracture cases not involving the condyle (1.3%), and 1 EACB case in 150 midface fracture cases (0.7%). Statistical analysis of EACB frequency for each fracture type showed a significant difference between skull base or mandibular fractures with condylar involvement and midface or mandibular fractures without condylar involvement (P < .05). However, there was no significant difference between skull base and mandibular fractures involving the condyle and midface fracture and mandibular fractures not involving the condyle (P > .05). EACB is uncommon in craniofacial fractures. The frequency varies significantly based on fracture type. Skull base fracture and mandibular ICF are the 2 main causes of EACB.

The NASA automated requirements measurement tool: a reconstruction

In the late 1990s the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Software Assurance Technology Center (SATC) developed a tool to automatically analyze a requirements document and produce a detailed quality report. The report was based on statistical analysis of word frequencies at various structural levels of the document. The Automated Requirements Measurement (ARM) tool was further enhanced to include additional functionality such as custom definitions of quality indicators inputs for document analysis. By 2011 work on the ARM tool was discontinued. This paper describes the reverse-engineering and reproduction of the functionality of ARM. Recreating the functionality of this tool yielded valuable insight into certain quality metrics and provides a benchmark tool for future research. In addition to recreating and working with the ARM tool, this paper explores both existing and potential definitions of quality metrics in requirements specifications. Automated requirements analysis is a convergence of various fields of research, including text mining, quality analysis, and natural language processing. Informed by tangential areas of research in document understanding and data mining, recommendations are made for future areas of research and development in automated requirements analysis.

Statistical Analysis of Fundamental Frequency Based Features in Speech under Stress

A significant part of the non-linguistic information carried in speech refers to the speaker and his/her internal state. This study investigates sixteen features based on fundamental frequency of speech F0 in order to detect stress in speakers. The most effective features resulting from experiments are presented here. The total frequency ranges of F0 across specific short-time speech segments created by two or three frames having stable F0 values were evaluated as the best features for speaker-independent stress detection. F0 contours were computed frame-by-frame using an optimized autocorrelation function. In our experiments, we used utterances spoken by 14 male speakers and taken from own database of speech under real psychological stress.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.itc.42.3.3895

How Recurrent Bank Failures Contributed to the Under Development of the Nigerian Economy

The study attempted to investigate how the nagging and recurrent bank failures in Nigeria have contributed to the under-development of the Nigerian economy. It also critically assessed the extent to which these identified factors are accountable for the failure and to ascertain other factors that may be responsible. The study involves 81 respondents from selected banks (First bank, Enterprise bank, Skye bank, Stanbic IBTC, and Zenith bank) in the Nigerian Banking industry. Data for the study was drawn mainly from primary sources. The questionnaire was used in collecting data for the study. The data generated was analyzed using simple descriptive statistics (frequency analysis). The study reviewed and confirmed the presence of Systemic failure in the Nigerian banking industry and its effect on economic growth. All the major factors attributable to be causing failure namely institutional, economic and political were discussed, some of which are; poor management, inadequate monitoring of bank operations by regulatory authorities, ineffective mechanism for fraud prevention, poor risk management, poor credit analysis and administration. To arrest these worrisome trend and also avoid their further encroachment on the entire banking system, the regulatory authorities are advised to be proactive in management and ensuring safe and sound Banking practices which will be achieved by introducing more innovative, pre-emptive and urgent measures of evaluating the features of failure at an early stage so as to drastically reduce the menace of Bank failures and its attendant consequences on the Nigerian Economy as a whole.

보육교사의 자아탄력성과 심리적 안녕감이 직무스트레스에 미치는 영향

본 연구의 목적은 보육교사의 자아탄력성과 심리적 안녕감이 보육교사의 직무스트레스에 어떤 영향을 미치는지에 대해 살펴봄으로써 보육교사의 직무스트레스를 이해하여 보육의 질을 높이고자 한다. 연구대상은 서울과 대전의 어린이집에 근무하는 192명의 보육교사들이다. 자료 분석은 SPSS 19.0 프로그램을 이용하여 기술통계(빈도, 평균, 표준편차), 내적 합치도(Cronbach's <TEX>${\alpha}$</TEX>), 다중회귀분석(multiple regression)을 실시하였다. 연구결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 보육교사의 자아탄력성, 심리적 안녕감과 직무스트레스의 일반적인 경향을 살펴본 결과, 보육교사의 자아탄력성과 심리적 안녕감은 높았으며, 직무스트레스는 낮았다. 둘째, 보육교사의 직무스트레스에 대해 자아탄력성과 심리적 안녕감은 상당한 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 자아탄력성의 낙관적 사고와 분노조절, 심리적 안녕감 중 환경통제력이 직무스트레스 전체를 예측하는 변인으로 나타났으며, 전체 변량의 46%를 설명하였다. 이는 보육교사가 낙관적 사고를 하고 분노조절을 잘 할수록, 또한 환경에 대한 통제를 잘 할수록 직무스트레스가 낮다는 것을 의미한다. 본 연구결과는 보육교사의 직무스트레스를 완화하기 위한 보육정책과 보육교사 교육프로그램 개발에 기초자료를 제공한다. This study examined the influence of ego-resilience and psychological well-being on job stress in childcare teachers. The participants were 192 childcare teachers in Seoul and Daejeon Metropolitan City. The research instruments were Ego-Resilience by Park(1996), Psychological well-being by Kim(2008), and Job Stress by Hong(2009). Collected data were analysed by descriptive statistics(frequency analysis, mean, & standard deviation) and multiple regression, and Cronbach's <TEX>${\alpha}$</TEX> for reliability by SPSS PC program. The results were as follows: First, Childcare teachers' perceived ego-resilience was higher than average. Childcare teachers' perceived psychological well-being was higher than average. Childcare teachers' perceived job stress was lower than average. Second, Childcare teachers' perceived ego-resilience and psychological well-being was having significant influences on childcare teachers' perceived job stress. Optimistic thinking and anger control among sub-factors of childcare teachers' perceived ego-resilience and environmental mastery among sub-factors of childcare teachers' perceived psychological well-being explained 46% of variance in childcare teachers' perceived job stress. These results provide informations for reducing job stress in childcare teacher and suggest the basis of an education program for childcare teacher.

Did recent world record marathon runners employ optimal pacing strategies?

We apply statistical analysis of high frequency (1 km) split data for the most recent two world-record marathon runs: Run 1 (2:03:59, 28 September 2008) and Run 2 (2:03:38, 25 September 2011). Based on studies in the endurance cycling literature, we develop two principles to approximate ‘optimal’ pacing in the field marathon. By utilising GPS and weather data, we test, and then de-trend, for each athlete’s field response to gradient and headwind on course, recovering standardised proxies for power-based pacing traces. The resultant traces were analysed to ascertain if either runner followed optimal pacing principles; and characterise any deviations from optimality. Whereas gradient was insignificant, headwind was a significant factor in running speed variability for both runners, with Runner 2 targeting the (optimal) parallel variation principle, whilst Runner 1 did not. After adjusting for these responses, neither runner followed the (optimal) ‘even’ power pacing principle, with Runner 2’s macro-pacing strategy fitting a sinusoidal oscillator with exponentially expanding envelope whilst Runner 1 followed a U-shaped, quadratic form. The study suggests that: (a) better pacing strategy could provide elite marathon runners with an economical pathway to significant performance improvements at world-record level; and (b) the data and analysis herein is consistent with a complex-adaptive model of power regulation.

비정상성 GEV 모형을 이용한 행정구역별 미래 확률강우량 산정

국내에서는 설계강우량을 산정하기 위해서 정상성 강우빈도해석법이 일반적으로 적용되고 있다. 그러나, 기후변화 또는 기후 변동으로 인한 극치사상의 증가 등으로 최근의 강우패턴은 과거와는 다른 양상을 보여주고 있으며, 이러한 경향은 수문학적 설계를 위한 확률강우량 산정에 고려될 필요가 있다. 본 연구에서는 행정구역별 비정상성 강우빈도해석을 수행하였다. 이를 위하여 1973년부터 2012년까지 관측된 지점강우량을 이용하여 행정구역별 연최대강우량 자료를 구축하였다. 25년 이동평균방법으로 관측자료의 통계량과 GEV 분포함수의 모수 사이의 상관성을 검토한 후, 미래 특정 시점에 대한 분포함수의 모수를 추정할 수 있는 비선형 회귀식을 유도하였다. 본 연구에서 제시한 방법은 관측된 연최대강우량에 대하여 검증을 하였으며, 강우패턴의 변화를 정상성 강우빈도해석법에 비해 보다 적절히 반영하는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서, 본 연구에서 제시하는 행정구역별 비정상성 강우빈도해석법은 가까운 미래의 확률강우량 산정과 최근에 도입된 행정구역별 방재성능 목표강우량 산정에 유용할 것으로 판단된다. In South Korea, stationary frequency analysis methods are generally used for estimating design rainfalls in practice. However, due to climate change and/or variability, recent rainfall observations have significantly different patterns from the past so that the recent trends need to be considered to estimate extreme rainfall quantiles for hydrologic design. This study focused on estimating extreme rainfall quantiles in administrative districts across South Korea, after building nonstationary GEV model using annual maximum rainfall (AMR) datasets for 228 administrative districts from point rainfall measures from 1973 to 2012. A moving average method with 25-year window was used for investigating time-dependent statistics of AMR, such as mean, variance and skewness, and parameters of GEV distribution. From the analyses of relationships between statistics and distribution parameters, this study derived nonlinear regression equations for distribution parameters, which provide the estimates of distribution parameters at any future time. The overall results achieved in this study illustrate that the nonlinear regression equations can be easily incorporated into the hydrologic frequency analysis and provide appropriate estimates of design rainfalls in the near future.

Evolutionary inferences from the analysis of exchangeability.

Evolutionary inferences are usually based on statistical models that compare mean genotypes or phenotypes (or their frequencies) among populations. An alternative is to use the full distribution of genotypes and phenotypes to infer the "exchangeability" of individuals among populations. We illustrate this approach by using discriminant functions on principal components to classify individuals among paired lake and stream populations of threespine stickleback in each of six independent watersheds. Classification based on neutral and nonneutral microsatellite markers was highest to the population of origin and next highest to populations in the same watershed. These patterns are consistent with the influence of historical contingency (separate colonization of each watershed) and subsequent gene flow (within but not between watersheds). In comparison to this low genetic exchangeability, ecological (diet) and morphological (trophic and armor traits) exchangeability was relatively high-particularly among populations from similar habitats. These patterns reflect the role of natural selection in driving parallel adaptive changes when independent populations colonize similar habitats. Importantly, however, substantial nonparallelism was also evident. Our results show that analyses based on exchangeability can confirm inferences based on statistical analyses of means or frequencies, while also refining insights into the drivers of-and constraints on-evolutionary diversification.

LH-moment estimation of a four parameter kappa distribution with hydrologic applications

The study of distribution tails is a fundamental research in statistical frequency analysis relevant to many research fields, such as insurance, hydrological events, earthquake, etc. Here, we describe and investigate the effect and feasibility of the high-order L-moment (LH-moment) method for estimating heavy-tail conditions by fitting a four parameter kappa distribution. Details of parameter estimation using LH-moments for the four parameter kappa distribution (K4D) are described and formulated. Monte-Carlo simulation is performed to illustrate the performance of the LH-moment method in terms of heavy-tail quantiles over all quantiles using K4D and non K4D samples, respectively. The result suggests that the method is either useful (when the method of L-moment estimation fails to give a feasible solution) or as effective as the L-moment approach in handling data following K4D. Applications to the annual maximum flood and sea level data are presented.

Study of the lower hybrid resonance frequency over the regions of gathering earthquakes using DEMETER data

Variations of plasma distribution and/or wave spectral features in the ionosphere were suggested by many authors as possible earthquake precursors, and the change of plasma density and temperature above seismic regions were reported in the literature. These quantities are known to influence the lower hybrid resonance (LHR) frequency profiles in the upper ionosphere and the magnetosphere, which, in turn, strongly affects the propagation of quasi-resonance VLF waves with frequencies f close to the maximum of the LHR frequency on the propagation path. This makes the VLF signals a tool of registration of ionospheric perturbations. Using the measurements from the DEMETER satellite for 3yr we have calculated the maps of LHR frequency over the globe, and the maps of VLF spectral intensity at the frequencies of Alpha navigation transmitters. These maps demonstrate a significant dependence of the spectral intensity in the transmitter conjugate region on the relation between the signal frequency and the LHR frequency above the observation point. Then, using the DEMETER data and the earthquake database from the US geological survey server we have performed statistical analysis of the LHR frequency over seismic regions and found an appreciably different behaviour of the LHR frequency before earthquakes, as compared to its regular behaviour, for several seismic regions. Although this difference is statistically significant, in each particular case the ionospheric perturbations may be related to different processes in the Earth's atmosphere, ionosphere, and the magnetosphere, other than gathering earthquakes. Thus, the unexpected variations in the LHR frequency profile, revealed from the variations of VLF transmitter signals, should only be considered as one indicator in a list of possible earthquake precursors.

Percepção e atitudes de proprietários quanto a vacinação de cães na região sul do estado do Espírito Santo - Brasil

Dogs are dependent on their owners to determine their general care, health and welfare, including the holding of vaccines against infectious diseases. This study was performed to gather more information on immunization practices performed in dogs by surveying owners of the southern of Espirito Santo State, totalizing 344 interviews. Statistical analysis of frequency and correlation were performed. The survey consisted of questions regarding the implementation of vaccination in dogs and aware of vaccine protocols by the owners, and also collect data about the cost of performing vaccines, the coverage of public campaigns of rabies vaccination and socioeconomic status of respondents. It was concluded that public campaign of rabies vaccination is satisfactory, as the most respondents was aware and performed that vaccines annually, independent of schooling level. Nevertheless, polyvalent vaccination is performed by less than a half of studied population, and owners were more aware about vaccination protocol in puppies than in adult dogs. Vaccination is still performed, in part, by non-specialist. The awareness of owners regarding correct protocols and application of vaccines by veterinarians should be performed to guarantee the properly vaccination practices and ensure the protection of dogs against infectious diseases.

Frecuencias alélicas, genotípicas y haplotípicas del sistema HLA clase I y II en donantes en una población del suroccidente Colombiano

Introducción: La determinación de los alelos que se expresan con mayor frecuencia en una población permite conocer la probabilidad que tiene una persona de encontrar un donante no relacionado compatible en esa población y sirve de referencia para estudios de asociación del HLA con diferentes enfermedades y aplicaciones en estudios antropogenéticos.&#x0D; Objetivo general: Determinar las frecuencias alélicas HLA-A*, B* y DRB1* en una población del suroccidente colombiano.&#x0D; Diseño Estudio descriptivo retrospectivo. &#x0D; &#x0D; Materiales y métodos: Estudio descriptivo y retrospectivo en el cual se incluyeron 1230 donantes (vivos y fallecidos) evaluados en el protocolo para trasplante renal y/o de médula ósea de la Fundación Valle del Lili.&#x0D; La tipificación se hizo por métodos moleculares y el análisis estadístico de las frecuencias alélicas, genotípicas y haplotípicas se realizó con los programa genéticos GENEPOP y Arlequín.&#x0D; &#x0D; Resultados: Se identificaron 20, 29 y 13 alelos para los locus HLA-A*, HLA-B* y HLA-DRB1* respectivamente y los alelos más frecuentes fueron A*02 (25%), B*35 (17,7%) y DRB1*04 (23%).&#x0D; Los haplotipos para dos loci más frecuentes fueron A*24B*35(8,9%), B*35DRB*04 (8,1%) y A*24DRB*04 (10,9%) y para tres loci A*24B*35DRB1*04 (5.4%) y A*24B*40DRB1*04 (3,2%)&#x0D; &#x0D; Conclusión: Los alelos que se expresan con mayor frecuencia en la población del Suroccidente Colombiano están representados por los alelos más comunes en la población Colombiana

Ecology of leishmaniasis in the South of France. 22. Reliability and representativeness of 12 Phlebotomus ariasi, P. perniciosus and Sergentomyia minuta (Diptera: Psychodidae) sampling stations in Vallespir (eastern French Pyrenees region).

This study was conducted around Céret (Pyrénées-Orientales, mean elevation 200 m) to test the statistical reliability of 12 stations devoted to sampling the Leishmania infantum vectors Phlebotomus ariasi and P. perniciosus in the South of France. Each station included a retaining wall and the surrounding phytoecological environment (total area: 2,000 m2). The wall had rectangular drainage cavities (weep holes) in which flight interception traps (sticky paper) were inserted and stretched every 10 days from May to October. For both vector species, the statistical analysis of 10-day and annual frequencies led to the following conclusions: (1) P. ariasi densities were significantly higher than P. perniciosus densities, (2) densities per species were significantly different at the 12 stations : none of them could be considered as representative of local vector densities, which depend on the wall structure (exposure, shade, vertebrate hosts), (3) the 10-day variation trends were not significantly different between stations, indicating that these variations are not determined by the station structure but rather by a common external factor (likely meteorological) and (4) the phytoecological features at the stations were not correlated with the sandfly densities. Most of the observations obtained with P. ariasi and P. perniciosus are also relevant for the non-vectorial species S. minuta. In conclusion, future research on the dynamics of leishmaniasis outbreaks relative to climate change and agricultural-silvicultural modifications should be very cautiously carried out, while focusing especially on the vector sampling quality and the use of phytoecological maps as vector density indicators.