Stationary Wave Model Research Articles

Interdecadal changes and the role of Philippine Sea convection in the intensification of Indian spring heatwaves

Abstract Severe heatwaves have become increasingly frequent over the Indian subcontinent in recent decades. This study found that the increase in extreme heatwaves is related to a significant decadal change in surface temperatures over the Indian subcontinent, and revealed that the increase in convective activity in the Philippine Sea plays a crucial role in this decadal change in surface temperature. Specifically, the surface temperature over the Indian subcontinent in spring has increased significantly by approximately 0.64°C in recent years (1998–2022: post-1998) compared to the past (1959–1997: pre-1998), leading to more intense and frequent heatwaves, particularly in March and April. The difference in atmospheric changes between these two periods shows that the enhancement of convective activity over the Philippine Sea drives an anomalous elongated anticyclonic circulation over the Indian subcontinent. This circulation pattern, marked by clearer skies and increased incident solar radiation, significantly contributes to the heat extremes in the Indian subcontinent. Additionally, stationary wave model experiments demonstrate that local diabatic heating over the Philippine Sea is significantly linked to robust spring Indian heatwaves through the Matsuno-Gill response.

Insights into the Causes and Predictability of the 2022/23 California Flooding

Abstract In late December of 2022 and the first half of January 2023, an unprecedented series of atmospheric rivers (ARs) produced near-record heavy rains and flooding over much of California. Here, we employ the NASA GEOS AGCM run in a “replay” mode, together with more idealized simulations with a stationary wave model, to identify the remote forcing regions, mechanisms, and underlying predictability of this flooding event. In particular, the study addresses the underlying causes of a persistent positive Pacific–North American (PNA)-like circulation pattern that facilitated the development of the ARs. We show that the pattern developed in late December as a result of vorticity forcing in the North Pacific jet exit region. We further provide evidence that this vorticity forcing was the result of a chain of events initiated in mid-December with the development of a Rossby wave (as a result of forcing linked to the MJO) that propagated from the northern Indian Ocean into the North Pacific. As such, both the initiation of the event and the eventual development of the PNA depended critically on internally generated Rossby wave forcings, with the North Pacific jet playing a key role. This, combined with contemporaneous SST (La Niña) forcing that produced a circulation response in the AGCM that was essentially opposite to the positive PNA, underscores the fundamental lack of predictability of the event at seasonal time scales. Forecasts produced with the GEOS-coupled model suggest that useful skill in predicting the PNA and extreme precipitation over California was in fact limited to lead times shorter than about 3 weeks.

Projected increase in summer heat-dome-like stationary waves over Northwestern North America

Heat-dome-like stationary waves often lead to extreme heat events, such as the unprecedented heatwave in Northwestern North America during the summer of 2021. However, future changes in summer stationary waves over Northwestern North America and the underlying driving factors remain unclear. Here, we investigate the projected changes in the anticyclonic stationary wave circulation over Northwestern North America using data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and diagnose the circulation changes using a stationary wave model. Our findings reveal a significant 95% increase in the summer stationary wave amplitude over Northwestern North America under the high-emission scenario in 2080–2099 relative to 1995–2014. The response is mainly driven by the diabatic heating changes over the tropical Pacific which induce a Rossby wave source in the northeastern tropical Pacific, and further supported by a northward expanded waveguide in North America, both enhancing wave activity flux into the Northwestern North America. The heat-dome-like stationary wave anomaly is expected to heighten the heatwave risk over the region.

Diagnosing observed extratropical stationary wave changes in boreal winter

Stationary waves are time-averaged zonally asymmetric component of the climatological mean atmospheric circulation, primarily due to the unevenly distributed topography and diabatic heating. Stationary waves are subject to influence from long-term external forcing. In this study, the temporal evolution of the winter (January) Northern Hemisphere stationary waves during 1961–2020 is diagnosed with the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts reanalysis data (ERA5), which shows an overall strengthening in amplitude and an eastward shift in phase. A stationary wave model is used to attribute the stationary wave response to changes in the zonal mean basic state (ΔZM) and the zonally asymmetric diabatic heating forcing (). The pattern of stationary wave changes is well captured by the response to ΔZM alone, whereas the contribution of to the amplitude increases in height and becomes dominant in the stratosphere. is also found to be important in driving stationary wave changes in the North Pacific and Western Europe regions. Furthermore, changes in tropospheric stationary waves are probably a result of internal variability, whereas stratospheric changes are more likely to be driven by external forcing.

Dynamical Drivers of the Exceptional Warmth over Siberia during the Spring of 2020

Abstract Much of Siberia experienced exceptional warmth during the spring of 2020, which followed an unusually warm winter over the same region. Here, we investigate the drivers of the spring warmth from the perspective of atmospheric dynamics and remote influences, focusing on monthly-time-scale features of the event. We find that the warm anomalies were associated with separate quasi-stationary Rossby wave trains emanating from the North Atlantic in April and May. The wave trains are shown to be extreme manifestations of the dominant modes of spring subseasonal meridional wind variability over the Northern Hemisphere. Using a large ensemble of simulations from NASA’s GEOS atmospheric model, in which the model is constrained to remain close to observations over selected regions, we further elucidate the remote drivers of the unusual spring temperatures in Siberia. In both April and May, the wave trains were likely forced from an upstream region including eastern North America and the western North Atlantic. Analysis with a stationary wave model shows that transient vorticity flux forcing over and downwind of the North Atlantic, which is strongly related to storm activity caused by internal variability, is key to generating the wave trains, suggesting limited subseasonal predictability of the Rossby waves and hence the exceptional Siberian warmth. Our observational and model analyses also suggest that anomalous tropical atmospheric heating contributed to the unusual warmth in Siberia through a teleconnection involving upper-troposphere dynamics and the mean meridional circulation. This tropical–extratropical teleconnection offers a possible physical mechanism by which anthropogenic climate change influenced the extreme Siberian warmth.

Part I observational study on a new mechanism for North Pacific Oscillation influencing the tropics

The North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), a representative midlatitude atmospheric variability, plays an important role in the development of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To explain this extratropical–tropical linkage, previous studies have focused on the atmospheric boundary layer processes coupled with the mixed-layer ocean. Different from the existing hypothesis, in this study, we propose a new mechanism to link the NPO to ENSO via upper-tropospheric teleconnections. Analyses of the wave activity flux show that wave energy associated with the NPO directly propagates from midlatitude to the tropics, modulating the tropical circulation. During the NPO event, this equatorward energy flux becomes pronounced after the NPO peak phase and persists for more than two weeks. As a result, when a positive NPO grows (here, north anticyclonic–south cyclonic circulation), upper-level easterly wind anomalies are situated along the equatorial Pacific. Accordingly, anomalous lower-level westerly winds simultaneously occur in the equatorial Pacific, contributing to the development of El Niño events. To demonstrate the wave energy propagation via the upper-level troposphere, a stationary wave model experiment was performed with an NPO-like barotropic vorticity forcing. The results show equatorward wave propagation consistent with the observation.

Summertime Subtropical Stationary Waves in the Northern Hemisphere: Variability, Forcing Mechanisms, and Impacts on Tropical Cyclone Activity

Abstract The interannual variability of summertime subtropical stationary waves, the forcing mechanisms, and their connections to regional tropical cyclone (TC) variability are investigated in this study. Two indices are identified to characterize the interannual variability of subtropical stationary waves: the longitudinal displacement of the zonal wavenumber-1 component (WN1) and the intensity change of the zonal wavenumber-2 component (WN2). These two indices are strongly anticorrelated and offer simple metrics to depict the interannual variability of subtropical stationary waves. Furthermore, the longitudinal displacement of the WN1 is significantly correlated with the variability of TC activity over the North Pacific and North Atlantic, and its influences on regional TC activity can be explained by variations in vertical wind shear, tropospheric humidity, and the frequency of Rossby wave breaking. The subtropical stationary waves are strongly related to precipitation anomalies over different oceanic regions, implying the possible impacts of low-frequency climate modes. Semi-idealized experiments using the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) show that the longitude of the WN1 is strongly modulated by ENSO, as well as SST anomalies over the Atlantic main development region and the central North Pacific. Further diagnosis using a baroclinic stationary wave model demonstrates the dominant role of diabatic heating in driving the interannual variability of stationary waves and confirms the impacts of different air–sea coupled modes on subtropical stationary waves. Overall, subtropical stationary waves provide a unified framework to understand the impacts of various forcing agents, such as ENSO, the Atlantic meridional mode, and extratropical Rossby wave breaking, on TC activity over the North Atlantic and North Pacific.

A practical simulation of a hexanitrohexaazaisowurtzitane (CL-20) sphere detonated underwater with the Taylor wave solution and modified Tait parameters

The modified ghost fluid method (MGFM) has been one of the most popular and successful algorithms for coping with the numerical calculation of multi-medium flows, especially for the interaction between strong discontinuities and material interfaces. To apply the advanced algorithm to an underwater explosion simulation, first, the uniform distribution of the state of the detonation products, which is the most generally used initial condition in an explosion simulation, is replaced by the analytic solution of the Taylor wave. The Tait equation is, then, expanded to a broader pressure coverage of up to 100 GPa to match the initial state at the discontinuity. One-dimensional Euler equations with source terms governing the explosion flow are discretized with the fifth-order weighted essentially non-oscillatory scheme in space and the third-order Runge–Kutta scheme in time. The gas–water interface is tracked with the level set equations, and the intermediate states are resolved and defined by following the MGFM. In addition to the comparative studies among diverse numerical cases, experimental data were offered as a calibration in this work. The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the energy and flow variables were comprehensively discussed. Studies and analysis showed that (1) the novelly achieved parameters B = 710.8 MPa and γ = 5.22 for the Tait equation of state were highly recommended for any application involving transient loads. (2) The explosion flow field produced by the Taylor wave model was closer to the nature of physical reality. (3) Without considering the details, the stationary wave model was not entirely unacceptable as an initial condition for roughly simulating an explosion effect. The most important thing was that one had to ensure that the initial energy was equivalent to the Taylor wave case.

The role of transient eddies and diabatic heating in the maintenance of European heat waves: a nonlinear quasi-stationary wave perspective

European heat waves result from large-scale stationary waves and have major impacts on the economy and mortality. However, the dynamical processes leading to and maintaining heat waves are still not well understood. Here we use a nonlinear stationary wave model (NSWM) to examine the role played by anomalous stationary waves and how they are forced during heat waves. For our study, we use the Japanese Reanalysis (JRA-55) data for the period 1958 through 2017. We show that the NSWM can successfully reproduce the main features of the observed anomalous stationary waves in the upper troposphere. Our results indicate that the dynamics of heat waves are nonlinear, and transient momentum fluxes are the primary drivers of the observed anomalous stationary waves. The contribution from orographic forcing is moderate and mainly through nonlinear interactions with diabatic heating. Further decomposition of the transients indicates that the high-frequency transient vorticity fluxes make dominant contributions. Furthermore, our results reveal that the response to heating located in the tropical Indian Ocean and the west Pacific region is primarily responsible for maintaining the observed anomalous stationary waves linked to European heat waves. This is confirmed by exploring the relationship between heat waves and the Indian Ocean Dipole strength. The heating in the mid-latitude and tropical Atlantic region plays a secondary role. Our results suggest that European heat waves are potentially predictable by considering the nonlinear effects involved in anomalous stationary waves and the heating sources in the nearby and remote tropical region.

The Boreal Winter El Niño Precipitation Response over North America: Insights into Why January Is More Difficult to Predict Than February

AbstractThis study examines the within-season monthly variation of the El Niño response over North America during December–March using the NASA/GEOS model. In agreement with previous studies, the skill of 1-month-lead GEOS coupled model forecasts of precipitation over North America is largest (smallest) for February (January), with similar results in uncoupled mode. A key finding is that the relatively poor January skill is the result of the model placing the main circulation anomaly over the northeast Pacific slightly to the west of the observed, resulting in precipitation anomalies that lie off the coast instead of over land as observed. In contrast, during February the observed circulation anomaly over the northeast Pacific shifts westward, lining up with the predicted anomaly, which is essentially unchanged from January, resulting in both the observed and predicted precipitation anomalies remaining off the coast. Furthermore, the largest precipitation anomalies occur along the southern tier of states associated with an eastward extended jet—something that the models capture reasonably well. Simulations with a stationary wave model indicate that the placement of January El Niño response to the west of the observed over the northeast Pacific is the result of biases in the January climatological stationary waves, rather than errors in the tropical Pacific El Niño heating anomalies in January. Furthermore, evidence is provided that the relatively poor simulation of the observed January climatology, characterized by a strengthened North Pacific jet and enhanced ridge over western North America, can be traced back to biases in the January climatology heating over the Tibet region and the tropical western Pacific.

ENSO Teleconnections and Impacts on U.S. Summertime Temperature during a Multiyear La Niña Life Cycle

AbstractEl Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections have been recognized as possible negative influences on crop yields in the United States during the summer growing season, especially in a developing La Niña summer. This study examines the physical processes of the ENSO summer teleconnections and remote impacts on the United States during a multiyear La Niña life cycle. Since 1950, a developing La Niña summer is either when an El Niño is transitioning to a La Niña or when a La Niña is persisting. Due to the distinct prior ENSO conditions, the oceanic and atmospheric characteristics in the tropics are dissimilar in these two different La Niña summers, leading to different teleconnection patterns. During the transitioning summer, the decaying El Niño and the developing La Niña induce suppressed deep convection over both the subtropical western Pacific (WP) and the tropical central Pacific (CP). Both of these two suppressed convection regions induce Rossby wave propagation extending toward North America, resulting in a statistically significant anomalous anticyclone over northeastern North America and, therefore, a robust warming signal over the Midwest. In contrast, during the persisting summer, only one suppressed convection region is present over the tropical CP induced by the La Niña SST forcing, resulting in a weak and insignificant extratropical teleconnection. Experiments from a stationary wave model confirm that the suppressed convection over the subtropical WP during the transitioning summer not only contributes substantially to the robust warming over the Midwest but also causes the teleconnections to be different from those in the persisting summer.

Testing the Limits and Breakdown of the Nonacceleration Theorem for Orographic Stationary Waves

AbstractThe nonacceleration theorem states that the torque exerted on the atmosphere by orography is exactly balanced by the convergence of momentum by the stationary waves that the orography excites. This balance is tested in simulations with a stationary wave model and with a dry, idealized general circulation model (GCM), in which large-scale orography is placed at the latitude of maximum surface wind speed. For the smallest mountain considered (maximum height H = 0.5 m), the nonacceleration balance is nearly met, but the damping in the stationary wave model induces an offset between the stationary eddy momentum flux (EMF) convergence and the mountain torque, leading to residual mean flow changes. A stationary nonlinearity appears for larger mountains (H ≥ 10 m), driven by preferential deflection of the flow around the poleward flank of the orography, and causes further breakdown of the nonacceleration balance. The nonlinearity grows as H is increased, and is stronger in the GCM than in the stationary wave model, likely due to interactions with transient eddies. The midlatitude jet shifts poleward for H ≤ 2 km and equatorward for larger mountains, reflecting changes in the transient EMFs, which push the jet poleward for smaller mountains and equatorward for larger mountains. The stationary EMFs consistently force the jet poleward. These results add to our understanding of how orography affects the atmosphere’s momentum budget, providing insight into how the nonacceleration theorem breaks down; the roles of stationary nonlinearities and transients; and how orography affects the strength and latitude of eddy-driven jets.

Decadal Changes in the Interannual Variability of Heat Waves in East Asia Caused by Atmospheric Teleconnection Changes

AbstractThe heat wave in East Asia is examined by using empirical orthogonal function analysis to isolate dominant heat-wave patterns in the ground-based temperature observations over the Korean Peninsula and China and related large-scale atmospheric circulations obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis 1 during 1973–2012. This study focuses particularly on the interannual variability of heat waves and its decadal change. The analysis identifies two major atmospheric teleconnection patterns playing an important role in developing typical heat-wave patterns in East Asia—the Scandinavian (SCAND) and the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) patterns, which exhibit a significant decadal change in the interannual variability in the mid-1990s. Before the mid-1990s, heat-wave occurrence was closely related to the CGT pattern, whereas the SCAND pattern is more crucial to explain heat-wave variability in the recent period. The stationary wave model experiments suggest an intensification of the SCAND pattern in the recent period driven by an increase in land–atmosphere interaction over Eurasia and decadal change in the dominant heat-wave patterns in East Asia.

Morphodynamic Resilience of Intertidal Mudflats on a Seasonal Time Scale

AbstractIntertidal mudflats are morphodynamic features present in many estuaries worldwide. Often located between vegetated shores and deep channels they comprise valuable ecosystems and serve to protect the hinterland by attenuating waves. Although mudflats are persistently present on yearly to decadal time scales, little is known on their morphodynamic adaptation to short‐term variations in forcing such as storms, spring‐neap tidal cycles, and sediment supply. This study aims to explore the morphodynamic resilience of mudflats to seasonal variations in forcing. First, we compare transects observed in South Bay, California, at 3‐ to 6‐monthly intervals. Second, we present the results of a process‐based, morphodynamic profile model (Mflat). Mflat is an open source, Matlab code that describes both cross‐shore and alongshore tidal hydrodynamics as well as a stationary wave model. An advection‐diffusion equation solves sediment transport while bed level changes occur by the divergence of the sediment transport field. Mflat reproduces the observed South San Francisco Bay profile in equilibrium with significant skill. Short‐term variations in hydrodynamic forcing and sediment characteristics disturb the profile mainly at the channel‐shoal edge. The modeled profile disturbance is consistent with observations. The modeled profile is remarkably resilient since it recovers to the equilibrium profile within weeks to months. The model results suggest that 3‐monthly observation intervals are probably too long to discriminate processes responsible for the profile disturbance. These processes may include variations in sediment supply, mudflat erodibility, and wave action as well as the spring‐neap tidal cycle.

Interdecadal Variability of the Warm Arctic and Cold Eurasia Pattern and Its North Atlantic Origin

ABSTRACTThis study investigates the origin of the interdecadal variability in the warm Arctic and cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern, which is defined as the second empirical orthogonal function of surface air temperature (SAT) variability over the Eurasian continent in Northern Hemisphere winter, by analyzing the Twentieth Century Reanalysis dataset. While previous studies highlight recent enhancement of the WACE pattern, ascribing it to anthropogenic warming, the authors found that the WACE pattern has experienced a seemingly periodic interdecadal variation over the twentieth century. This long-term variation in the Eurasian SAT is attributable to the altered coupling between the Siberian high (SH) and intraseasonal Rossby wave emanating from the North Atlantic, as the local wave branch interacts with the SH and consequentially enhances the continental temperature perturbation. It is further identified that these atmospheric circulation changes in Eurasia are largely controlled by the decadal amplitude modulation of the climatological stationary waves over the North Atlantic region. The altered decadal mean condition of stationary wave components brings changes in local baroclinicity and storm track activity over the North Atlantic, which jointly change the intraseasonal Rossby wave generation and propagation characteristics as well. With simple stationary wave model experiments, the authors confirm how the altered mean flow condition in the North Atlantic acts as a source for the growth of the Rossby wave that leads to the change in the downstream WACE pattern.

Inter-decadal variation of the Tropical Atlantic-Korea (TA-K) teleconnection pattern during boreal summer season

The inter-decadal variation of the positive relationship between the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) and Korean precipitation during boreal summer season during 1900–2010 is examined. The 15-year moving correlation between the Tropical Atlantic SST (TAtlSST) index (SST anomalies from 30°S to 30°N and 60°W to 20°E) and Korean precipitation (precipitation anomalies from 35°–40°N to 120°–130°E) during June–July–August exhibits strong inter-decadal variation, which becomes positive at the 95% confidence level after the 1980s. Intensification of the linkage between the TAtlSST index and Korean precipitation after the 1980s is attributed to global warming via the increased background SST. The increase in the background SST over the Atlantic provides background conditions that enhance anomalous convective activity by anomalous Atlantic SST warming. Therefore, the overall atmospheric responses associated with the tropical Atlantic SST warming could intensify. The correlation between the TAtlSST index and Korean precipitation also exhibits strong inter-decadal variation within 1980–2010, which is over 0.8 during early 2000s, while it is relative low (i.e., around 0.6) during the early 1980s. The enhanced co-variability between the tropical and the mid-latitude Atlantic SST during the early 2000s indicates the intensification of TAtlSST-related Rossby wave source over the mid-latitude Atlantic, which excites stationary waves propagated from the Atlantic to the Korean peninsula across northern Europe and northeast Asia. This Rossby-wave train induces a cyclonic flow over the northern edge of the Korea, which intensifies southwesterly and results in precipitation over Korea. This observed decadal difference is well simulated by the stationary wave model experiments with a prescribed TAtlSST-related Rossby wave source over the mid-latitude Atlantic.

A Modeling Study of the Causes and Predictability of the Spring 2011 Extreme US Weather Activity.

This study examines the causes and predictability of the spring 2011 U.S. extreme weather using the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalyses and Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5) Atmospheric General Circulation Model simulations. The focus is on assessing the impact on precipitation of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, land conditions, and large-scale atmospheric modes of variability. A key result is that the April record-breaking precipitation in the Ohio River Valley was primarily the result of the unforced development of a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like mode of variability with unusually large amplitude, limiting the predictability of the precipitation in that region at one month leads. SST forcing (La Nina conditions) contributed to the broader continental scale pattern of precipitation anomalies, producing drying in the southern plains and weak wet anomalies in the northeast, while the impact of realistic initial North American land conditions was to enhance precipitation in the upper Midwest and produce deficits in the southeast. It was further found that: The March 1 atmospheric initial condition was the primary source of the ensemble mean precipitation response over the eastern U.S. in April (well beyond the limit of weather predictability) suggesting an influence on the initial state of the previous SST forcing and/or tropospheric/stratospheric coupling linked to an unusually persistent and cold polar vortex.Stationary wave model experiments suggest that the SST-forced base state for April enhanced the amplitude of the NAO response compared to that of the climatological state, though the impact is modest and can be of either sign.

Impacts of Local Soil Moisture Anomalies on the Atmospheric Circulation and on Remote Surface Meteorological Fields during Boreal Summer: A Comprehensive Analysis over North America

Abstract A series of stationary wave model (SWM) experiments are performed in which the boreal summer atmosphere is forced, over a number of locations in the continental United States, with an idealized diabatic heating anomaly that mimics the atmospheric heating associated with a dry land surface. For localized heating within a large portion of the continental interior, regardless of the specific location of this heating, the spatial pattern of the forced atmospheric circulation anomaly (in terms of 250-hPa eddy streamfunction) is largely the same: a high anomaly forms over west-central North America and a low anomaly forms to the east. In supplemental atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments, similar results are found; imposing soil moisture dryness in the AGCM in different locations within the U.S. interior tends to produce the aforementioned pattern, along with an associated near-surface warming and precipitation deficit in the center of the continent. The SWM-based and AGCM-based patterns generally agree with composites generated using reanalysis and precipitation gauge data. The AGCM experiments also suggest that dry anomalies imposed in the lower Mississippi River valley have remote surface impacts of particularly large spatial extent, and a region along the eastern half of the U.S.–Canadian border is particularly sensitive to dry anomalies in a number of remote areas. Overall, the SWM and AGCM experiments support the idea of a positive feedback loop operating over the continent: dry surface conditions in many interior locations lead to changes in atmospheric circulation that act to enhance further the overall dryness of the continental interior.

Arctic-North Pacific coupled impacts on the late autumn cold in North America

The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) is known to bring an anomalously cold (warm) period to southeastern (northwestern) North America during the cold season of its positive phase through a Rossby wave linkage. This study provides evidence that the remote connection between the North Pacific and the downstream temperature over central North America is strengthened by the warm arctic conditions over the Chukchi and East Siberian Sea, especially in the late autumn season. The modulation effect of the Arctic manifests itself as an altered Rossby wave response to a transient vorticity forcing that results from an equatorward storm track shift, which is induced collaboratively by the PDO and the warm Arctic. This observational finding is supported by two independent modeling experiments: (1) an idealized coupled GCM experiment being nudged toward the warm arctic surface condition and (2) a simple stationary wave model experiment forced by transient eddy forcing.

The East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR) teleconnection in the North Atlantic: climate impact and relation to Rossby wave propagation

Large-scale winter teleconnection of the East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR) over the Atlantic and surrounding regions is examined in order to quantify its impacts on temperature and precipitation and identify the physical mechanisms responsible for its existence. A rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis of the upper-tropospheric monthly height field captures successfully the EA/WR pattern and its interannual variation, with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as the first mode. EA/WR’s climate impact extends from eastern North America to Eurasia. The positive (negative) EA/WR produces positive (negative) temperature anomalies over the eastern US, western Europe and Russia east of Caspian Sea, with negative (positive) anomalies over eastern Canada, eastern Europe including Ural Mountains, northeastern Africa and the Middle East. These anomalies are largely explained by lower-tropospheric temperature advections. Positive (negative) precipitation anomalies are found over the mid-latitude Atlantic and central Russia around ~60°E, where lower-level cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation anomaly is dominant. Eastern Canada and western Europe including the Mediterranean region are characterized by negative (positive) precipitation anomalies. The EA/WR is found to be closely associated with Rossby wave propagation. Wave activity fluxes show that it is strongly tied to large-scale stationary waves. Furthermore, a stationary wave model (SWM) forced with vorticity transients in the mid-latitude Atlantic (~40°N) or diabatic heat source over the subtropical Atlantic near the Caribbean Sea produces well-organized EA/WR-like wave patterns, respectively. Sensitivity tests with the SWM indicate enhancement of EA/WR-like blocking over west of Scandinavia when the mean state is modified to have a positive NAO component that enhances upper-level westerlies between 40 and 60°N.