Statewide Poll Research Articles

Perceived helpfulness of caregiver support resources: Results from a state-wide poll

ObjectiveOur goal was to identify specific types of services desired by caregivers and determine subgroups most interested in each service type. MethodsCaregiving questions were added to a state-wide poll conducted in a majority-rural state. Those who identified as caregivers (n = 428) were asked to report on the helpfulness of 6 domains of services. Descriptive analysis and logistic regressions were conducted. ResultsTop resources caregivers identified as potentially helpful included hands-on services (33.9%), help coordinating care from multiple providers (21.5%), help with finances (18.9%), and help managing emotional stress (17.8%). Only 15% indicated no caregiver resources would be helpful. Younger caregivers endorsed several service domains as more helpful than older caregivers; caregivers reporting higher stress were more likely to endorse most domains as helpful. ConclusionData reinforces the overwhelming need to offer caregiver services. Navigation and integrated and tailored service models may be beneficial to help caregivers identify and access appropriate services within healthcare systems. InnovationThis study uses an innovative approach to identifying needs of caregivers, who are often invisible within the healthcare system. Our findings suggest a paradigm shift is needed to broaden the scope and depth of services offered to caregivers.

The Polls and the U.S. Presidential Election in 2020 …. and 2024

Arguably, the single greatest determinant of U.S. public policy is the identity of the president. And if trusted, polls not only provide forecasts about presidential-election outcomes but can act to shape those outcomes. Looking ahead to the 2024 U.S. presidential election and recognizing that polls before the 2020 presidential election were sharply criticized, we consider whether such harsh assessments are warranted. Initially, we explore whether such polls as processed by the sophisticated aggregator FiveThirtyEight successfully forecast actual 2020 state-by-state outcomes. We evaluate FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts using customized statistical methods not used previously, methods that take account of likely correlations among election outcomes in similar states. We find that, taken together, the pollsters and FiveThirtyEight did an excellent job in predicting who would win in individual states, even those “tipping point” states where forecasting is more difficult. However, we also find that FiveThirtyEight underestimated Donald Trump’s vote shares by state to a modest but statistically significant extent. We further consider how the polls performed when the more primitive aggregator Real Clear Politics combined their results, and then how well single statewide polls performed without aggregation. It emerges that both Real Clear Politics and the individual polls fared surprisingly well.

Racial Discrimination, Social Disadvantage, and Racial–Ethnic Disparities in COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake

Racial-ethnic disparities in COVID-19 vaccination are well documented. The extent to which racism, manifested at the individual and ZIP code levels, explains disparities in early vaccination uptake remains unclear. Data from a statewide poll of California registered voters (N=10,256), conducted between April 29 and May 5, 2021, linked to area-level resource data, were analyzed. Weighted multivariable logistic regression models examined racial disparities in COVID-19 vaccination. Decomposition analyses quantified how much of the observed racial disparities in vaccination were explained by racial discrimination and social disadvantage (i.e., educational attainment, 2019 household income, and ZIP code social vulnerability). Latinx (64.6%) and Black (66.7%) adults were less likely to have at least 1 COVID-19 vaccine dose by April or May 2021 than White adults (74.7%). In adjusted analyses, Latinx (AOR=0.69, 95% CI=0.57, 0.84) and Black (AOR=0.51, 95% CI=0.37, 0.70) adults had a lower likelihood of being vaccinated than Whites. Social disadvantage accounted for 77.4% (p<0.05) and 35.8% (p<0.05) of the explainable variation in Latinx-White and Black-White disparities, respectively. Self-reported racial discrimination was not associated with COVID-19 vaccination in adjusted analyses. Social disadvantage but not self-reported racial discrimination explained racial-ethnic disparities in COVID-19 vaccination in California. Removing resource-related barriers may help to increase the relatively low COVID-19 vaccination rates among Black and Latinx populations.

Public Support for "Get Smart" Criminal Justice Reform Post-2020: Virginia as a Case Study.

Over the last decade, some states have considered reforms to address the consequences of "get tough" justice. The passage of recreational marijuana laws-albeit incorporated across a minority of jurisdictions-is just one popular example. While recent scholarship indicates support for such measures among the public, there is a need for exploration of public views in light of the social unrest of 2020. Additionally, there is a need to understand public views across jurisdictions that are diverse. Accordingly, Virginia stands out as an ideal case study as it is the first state in the South to incorporate or consider a variety of progressive justice reforms. Drawing on a statewide poll conducted in 2021 (N = 1,017), this study explores the extent to which Virginians support recreational marijuana legislation, the repeal of mandatory minimums, and a moratorium on the death penalty. Findings indicate that approval varies by measure and that there are divides in public views, specifically, across socio-demographic dimensions (e.g., political ideology), and also across views about the state of society and willingness to fund the justice system. Implications are discussed.

Polls and Elections Accuracy and Bias in the 2020 U.S. General Election Polls

AbstractThis report examines accuracy and bias in national and state‐level preelection polls conducted during the 2020 U.S. general election cycle. Overall, national and statewide polls in 2020 were considerably less accurate than in 2016. In fact, there is evidence the final, national presidential preelection polls were less accurate than in any cycle since 1996. Polls across the board underestimated Republican support in the presidential, U.S. Senate, and gubernatorial races. The results show the pro‐Democratic biases reflected in the final 2020 preelection polls were systematic.

The Clinton Effect? The (Non)Impact of a High‐Profile Candidate on Gender Stereotypes

ObjectivesDoes the presence of a particular high‐profile female politician influence how citizens think about women in politics generally?MethodsWe randomly assigned respondents in four statewide polls either to receive a cue about Hillary Clinton followed by a battery of questions about women in politics generally, or to hear only the women in politics battery.ResultsDrawing on scholarship from social psychology about the role of exemplars in auto evaluation, our results indicate that most individuals still hold gendered perceptions toward women in public office, but also that pushing the Clinton button first neither diminishes nor aggravates gendered expectations broadly. This is true even among males and Republicans, whom past scholarship suggests would be most susceptible to exemplar effects, and regardless of whether respondents were primed to think about Clinton as a diplomat or a candidate.ConclusionsOur findings challenge the view that specific high‐profile female politicians will influence public perception of women's leadership qualifications generally.

The Divide Between Journalists and the Audience: Perceptions of Journalism Credibility at a Statewide Level

This two-part study examined the perception of journalism ethical standards by both the public and media professionals on a statewide level. In part one of the study, a statewide poll found that only 14% of Arkansas residents rated the honesty and ethical standards of journalists as high or very high. The results are about 9 percentage points below the findings of a national Gallup poll in 2015 in which the public ranked the ethical standards of journalists. In contrast, part two of the study revealed that 75% of Arkansas media professionals surveyed rated the honesty and ethical standards of journalists as high or very high. Still, 85% of the media professionals also said they thought ethical violations were damaging their profession. Journalists were split about the most common ethical complaint from readers and viewers – 45% said bias, 45% said inaccuracy, and 10% said fairness. Asked what medium they thought was the source of the most ethical violations, 20% blamed broadcast (TV); 25% blamed the Internet; 40% blamed social media; 5% blamed social media and broadcast; 5% blamed social media and the Internet; and 5% blamed social media, broadcast, and the Internet. The responses of these journalists were consistent with the theory of paradigm repair, which posits that journalists engage in discursive strategies to defend their profession in the face of ethical scandals, such as ignoring these ethics offenses or shifting the blame to other sources, such as new technology

Preelection poll accuracy and bias in the 2016 U.S. general elections

ABSTRACTThis report examines accuracy and bias in national- and state-level preelection polls conducted during the 2016 U.S. general election cycle. Overall, national polls in 2016 were somewhat more accurate than in 2012, but statewide polls were less accurate. Patterns across the board suggest polls underestimated Republican support in the presidential, U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races. Nevertheless, these biases were generally statistically insignificant, suggesting significant bias in preelection polls was scarce in 2016.

Who Is Opposed to Common Core and Why?

Rising opposition to the Common Core Standards (CCS) has undermined implementation throughout the country. Yet there has been no scholarly analysis of the predictors of CCS opposition in the populace. This analysis uses poll data from a statewide poll of California voters to explore the demographic and policy predictors of CCS opposition. We find opposition strongly associated with views about President Obama, several education policy issues (especially testing), and two mis/negative conceptions about the standards. We advocate future work using poll data to understand public opinion on education issues.

Economic and Environmental Drivers of Fruit and Vegetable Intake Among Socioeconomically Diverse Adults in Vermont

ABSTRACTFruit and vegetable (FV) consumption has been linked to positive health outcomes. States and municipalities have encouraged participation in the local food system to foster public health and other community benefits. This study examines determinants of fruit and vegetable intake in Vermont through the use of a representative statewide poll. Ordered logit regression models examined the drivers of FV consumption. Buying direct from farmers and perceived impacts on health and the environment significantly increase reported FV consumption likelihood across all participants. Implications focus on messages around the environmental benefits of FV consumption and efforts to increase local food accessibility.

Public opinion on the affluenza defense, race, and sentencing decisions: results from a statewide poll

Ever since the highly publicized Texas case in which a wealthy, Caucasian teenager invoked ‘affluenza’ as a mitigating factor during his homicide trial, public discourse has debated the appropriateness of considering wealth during criminal sentences. Underlying this debate is a question about race: would a black defendant have the same chance of successfully using the affluenza defense? Intersectionality suggests that considerations of class, as implicated by the affluenza debate, are necessarily conditioned by understandings of race. This research examines whether public opinion supports the idea that extreme wealth contributes to criminal offending; whether affluence should be considered during sentencing; and whether a black defendant would able to use the affluenza defense successfully. Examining public opinion data from a statewide poll in Pennsylvania, this research explores public opinion on affluenza and examines whether race and other demographic characteristics influence the attribution process. The researchers use multivariate models to investigate significant predictors tied to respondents’ opinions, and they make observations about the impact of these factors on due process in sentencing procedures. This research provides an important first step in exploring whether the public perceives affluenza to be related to offending, related punitiveness, and the interplay of race with that attribution process.

Were the 2014 US Senatorial and Gubernatorial Elections Manipulated?

Is it possible electronic vote-count manipulation determines who controls government in the United States? The probability that the disparities between predicted and reported 2014 election vote margins were caused by random sampling error is virtually zero. A method for extending and simplifying fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (FsQCA)'s measure for necessity reveals that lack of effective post-election audits is a necessary condition for the occurrence of high levels of disparity between statewide polls and election results. Maryland's 2014 gubernatorial contest is most consistent with an explanation of vote miscount having altered its outcome. An analysis of Maryland's partisan voter registration, turnout, and vote data by ballot type statistically confirms vote miscount as a likely explanation for its unexpected outcome.

Public support for law enforcement agencies’ recording of arrest statistics by race: a research note

This paper discusses research pertaining to law enforcement agencies' recording of crime statistics by race. Using data from a 2010 statewide poll in Pennsylvania, we examined whether there was support for the current policy that requires police to record the race of arrestees. In addition, the poll asked Pennsylvanians (N = 758) whether they believe that recording race and crime statistics promotes racial stereotypes. The study also examined the influence of several covariates (gender, age, race, and education) on the dependent measures. In particular, two hypotheses were tested; first, whether Whites would be more likely to support the recording of race statistics than non-Whites, and second, whether non-Whites would be more likely than Whites to believe that the recording of race statistics promotes racial stereotypes. The study found support for both hypotheses. The implications of these results are discussed.

Use of Bellwether Samples to Enhance Pre-Election Poll Predictions: Science and Art

In this article, the authors document a new pre-election polling method that combines traditional probability sampling in statewide polls with sampling of bellwether districts. Against the backdrop of the 2008 presidential primary in New Hampshire, the authors explain how the Suffolk University/WHDH predictions, using additional bellwether tests, were closer than most other polls in correctly calling the Democratic primary race. Thus, the contributions in this article are twofold. The authors offer information that provides advances to the field of opinion research by describing the nature of electoral bellwether districts, a topic of recurring interest to public opinion scholars and practitioners. Second, they describe a process for selecting electoral bellwether districts. The authors explore the validity of their ideas by comparing pre-election poll data with bellwether tests to election outcomes for additional races in the state primaries and general election. They offer conclusions about the value and use of bellwether tests in the spirit of an open-source methodology to the opinion research community.

Polls and Elections: Preelection Poll Accuracy in the 2008 General Elections

Voters in the 2008 presidential election decidedly endorsed Democrat Barack Obama over his Republican opponent John McCain in the first-ever contest between two sitting U.S. senators. Amid growing economic turmoil and frustration with the war in Iraq and with two-term incumbent Republican president George W. Bush, Obama bested McCain at the polls by nearly 10 million votes. The historic election attracted 61.6% of the eligible electorate to the polls on election day--the highest turnout since 1968--and produced the first African American president of the United States (McDonald 2009). Obama ultimately captured 52.9% of the popular vote, while McCain received 45.7%. The Democratic nominee carried 28 states plus the District of Columbia and prevailed in Nebraska's Second Congressional District to garner 365 electoral votes; McCain earned 173 electoral votes from victories in 22 states. (1) The 2008 election was the first election in 56 years that did not include an incumbent president or vice president. Both parties held spirited primaries that attracted a broad range of candidates, but the Democratic primary race that pitted former first lady and U.S. senator Hillary Clinton, the early front-runner, against Barack Obama was especially vivacious. The 17-month contest remained close throughout, and Obama did not secure enough delegates to clinch the nomination until June 3, 2008. Despite noteworthy preelection polling setbacks during the primaries (most pollsters predicted an Obama victory in New Hampshire, for example, but Clinton won) (Liss 2008), the final national preelection polls in the general election unanimously projected a Democratic victory. Estimates of Obama's margin over McCain were among the most precise on record. In this essay, I analyze national and subnational preelection polls conducted in the 2008 cycle to present an in-depth evaluation of poll accuracy. Preelection Poll Volume and Poll Aggregation in 2008 The number of preelection polls conducted during a typical presidential election cycle has grown substantially over the past few decades. Michael Traugott reports that the explosion in polls started in the 1980s and that the occurrence of the standard trial heat items in polls increased about 900% between 1984 and 2000 (2005, 644). The overall volume of preelection polling conducted during the 2008 cycle remained high. Based on national samples reported on Pollster.com, 221 non-overlapping presidential trial heats were conducted between Labor Day (September 1) and election day 2008, substantially more than in 2004 (although fewer than in the 2000 cycle). (2) Several polling organizations conducted daily tracking polls in 2008; Gallup and Rasmussen tracked preferences daily for at least six months leading up to the November election. In addition, DailyKos, George Washington University Battleground, Hotline, and Zogby provided daily tracking estimates during the fall campaign, and two additional organizations, IBD/TIPP and ABC News/Washington Post, reported daily tracking poll data toward the end of the campaign. A total of 975 trial heat items in statewide polls fielded between Labor Day and election day probed presidential preferences in 2008, while 394 trial heats reported statewide preferences for U.S. Senate candidates and 110 for gubernatorial candidates over the same duration. One of the main developments in terms of preelection polling in 2008 was the emergence of online poll aggregators. Web sites such as FiveThirtyEight.com, Pollster.com, the Princeton Election Consortium, and RealClearPolitics.com collected, analyzed, and graphed an unprecedented amount of state and national polling data and helped voters interpret and assess campaign dynamics by providing singular, statistical measures that captured all of the available information daily. Poll aggregators used different mathematical models to contextualize polling information and to refine the predictive capabilities of available polling data (Harmanci 2008). …

An Alternative to the Impasse

The volume of violence portrayed in American mass media has caused concern for decades, but media self-interests, weak governmental policies, and the First Amendment protection for freedom of expression have stymied efforts to improve media content. Grassroots endeavors to alert parents to possible negative effects may be a more effective approach. “Pulling the Plug on Media Violence,” a campaign aimed at escalating consumer awareness, has been implemented by a volunteer group in North Carolina. This study, using the results of a statewide poll, evaluates the campaign's effectiveness and provides useful findings for future efforts devoted to similar issues. The survey shows that although awareness of the campaign was high, the level of concern about media effects was not influenced directly. Religiosity, gender and parenthood were found to be the most important factors linked to higher levels of concern about media violence. Future efforts to mobilize an anti-violence effort may want to target messages to parents (especially mothers) and work with churches in order to increase active involvement.

Mail vs. telephone surveys of criminal justice attitudes: A comparative analysis

This study compares results from surveys using two modes of administration. A subset of questions from the 1992Texas Crime Poll, a statewide poll conducted annually by mail, was replicated in telephone interviews using the Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing System. The phone survey yielded better participation rates but less complete responses to individual attitude questions than did the mail poll. As expected, the mail survey was less expensive but less efficient than the automated phone survey. The central finding was that all but one of the responses to five attitude questions difered significantly across the surveys. The samples differed in their demographic composition, but this did not explain differences in the substantive findings from the mail and phone surveys. The discussion considers alternative explanations for differences in the findings from the two surveys and suggests direction for further comparative research.

Too Quick To Sue? Public Perceptions of the Litigation Explosion

Although there is considerable discussion among elites that Americans are too quick to sue, we have limited empirical evidence of what the general public thinks. To fill this gap, a statewide poll of Louisiana voters asked whether people are too quick to hire a lawyer and go to court. Two out of three responded that Americans were indeed too quick to sue. This article examines whether social characteristics, previous litigation experience, and political attitudes are related to these responses. The results indicate that race of the respondent is the dominant explanatory variable. Whites overwhelmingly agreed that “people are too quick to hire a lawyer and go to court, “whereas blacks overwhelmingly agreed “anyone should be able to use the legal system to their advantage.” In short, those with status appear quick to blame those with low status for filing too many lawsuits.

The Instability of Support for Television Evangelists: Public Reactions during a Period of Embarrassment

During 1987, television evangelists experienced several embarrassing incidents. Their problems provided an opportunity to examine the strength and durability of their appeal to viewers. It was expected that viewer loyalty would be maintained to the extent that the evangelists were contributing to a "plausibility structure "for certain ways of believing and behaving. A statewide poll conducted in Spring, 1987, found that reported viewership had decreased compared with reports from 1981 and that more than half of the respondents said that their respect for television evangelists had decreased over the past several months. At the same time, television evangelists continued to have a following among members of population groups which traditionally support fundamentalist and sectarian organizations. It is concluded that television evangelists remain important within a particular niche.

State Polls: Promising Data Sources for Political Research

This research note suggests that the image of statewide polls as erratic bases for election predictions belies their reliability and usefulness as sources of information for basic scientific research. Data on partisanship from three different polling organizations, over a seven-year period, for fourteen different states, are presented to indicate that there is minimal interorganization variation among the three sources of data, a remarkable stability of sample estimates of partisanship within states through time, and a strong correlation between the state poll data and external validating indicators.