State Firearm Research Articles

Association of veteran suicide risk with state-level firearm ownership rates and firearm laws in the USA

BackgroundVeterans have higher suicide rates than matched non-veterans, with firearm suicides being especially prevalent among veterans. We examined whether state firearm laws and state firearm ownership rates are important risk...

Pediatric Firearm Deaths and State Policies on Social, Emotional, and Academic Development

Objective: To determine whether state-level SEAD policies are associated with pediatric firearm homicides and suicides. Summary Background Data: Firearm deaths continue to rise among United States (US) children. School-based efforts to promote social, emotional, and academic development (SEAD) may be a means to reduce such deaths, but state-level policies vary and the effect on firearm deaths is unknown. Methods: We used Education Trust data regarding state-level SEAD policies, averaging 6 domains to create a cumulative score and investigating each domain individually. The primary outcomes were pediatric firearm homicides and suicides, using covariates from the American Community Survey and State Firearm Laws database. We mapped SEAD policies and pediatric death rates. Poisson regression was used to investigate associations between SEAD policies and pediatric firearm deaths. Results: Annual statewide pediatric firearm deaths ranged from 0.85 to 7.81 per 100,000; homicides from 0.64 to 5.69, and suicides from 0.21 to 4.75. Univariate analyses demonstrated associations between SEAD scores and both homicides (P=0.003) and suicides (P=0.032), but these were nonsignificant after adjustment. Professional Development and Engagement policies were associated with lower rates of pediatric firearm homicides after adjustment (IRR=0.33, P=0.004 and IRR=0.46, P=0.014, respectively). There was no significant association between any domain and pediatric firearm suicide. Conclusion: Professional Development and Student, Family and Community Engagement policies are associated with lower rates of pediatric firearm homicides, however, there was no significant association between pediatric firearm deaths and summary SEAD measures after adjustment. Certain SEAD policies may be helpful in decreasing pediatric firearm deaths.

Association between state minimum wage and firearm suicides in the USA, 2000–2020

BackgroundFirearm suicides constitute a major public health issue. Policies that enhance economic security and decrease community-level poverty may be effective strategies for reducing risk of firearm suicide. This study examined...

State Policies Regulating Firearms and Changes in Firearm Mortality

Despite high social and public health costs of firearm violence in the United States, the effects of many policies designed to reduce firearm mortality remain uncertain. To estimate the individual and joint effect sizes of state firearm policies on firearm-related mortality. In this comparative effectiveness study, bayesian methods were used to model panel data of annual, state-level mortality rates (1979-2019) for all US firearm decedents, with analyses conducted in October 2023. Six classes of firearms policies: background checks, minimum age, waiting periods, child access, concealed carry, and stand-your-ground laws. Primary outcomes (total firearm deaths, firearm homicide deaths, and firearm suicide deaths) were assessed using the National Vital Statistics System. Bayesian estimation was used to estimate the partial association of changes in firearms policies with subsequent changes in firearm mortality. The estimated effect sizes of individual policies 5 or more years after implementation were generally small in magnitude and had considerable uncertainty. The policy class with the highest probability of reducing firearm deaths was child-access prevention laws, estimated to reduce overall firearm mortality by 6% (80% credible interval [CrI], -2% to -9%). The policy class with the highest probability of increasing firearm deaths was stand-your-ground laws, estimated to increase firearm homicides by 6% (80% CrI, 0% to 13% increase). Estimates of association of implementing multiple firearm restrictions with subsequent changes in firearm mortality yielded larger effect sizes. Moving from the most permissive to most restrictive set of firearm policies was associated with an estimated 20% reduction in firearm deaths (80% CrI, 10% to 28% reduction), with a 0.99 probability of any reductions in firearm death rates. In this comparative effectiveness study of state firearm policies, the joint effect estimates of combinations of firearm laws were calculated, showing that restrictive firearm policies were associated with substantial reductions in firearm mortality. Although policymakers would benefit from knowing the effects of individual policies, the estimated changes in firearm mortality following implementation of individual policies were often small and uncertain.

Child Firearm-Related Homicide and Suicide by State Legislation in the US (2009-2020).

Firearms are the leading cause of death among U.S. children and adolescents. This study evaluates whether state gun laws are associated with firearm suicides and homicides in children. This is a cross-sectional database study comparing childhood firearm mortality with 36 state firearm laws using data from CDC WONDER and the RAND state firearm law database. Primary outcomes were firearm-related suicide and homicide mortalities per 100,000 persons. We examined suicide deaths by all firearms, including intentional self-harm by handguns only, intentional self-harm by rifles, shotguns, or large firearms only, and intentional self-harm by other or unspecified firearms, as well as homicide deaths for the same firearm types in each state. Welch's t-tests compared mean rates of suicide and homicide mortalities between states with and without these laws. States that either enacted or rescinded firearm legislation during this period were excluded. From 2009-2020, there were 6,735 suicides and 10,278 homicides by firearm totaling 17,013 child deaths (<18) by firearm. States with "child access prevention- negligent storage" laws demonstrated lower suicide mortality rates across all firearm types (handguns) N=13, M (mean per 100,000)=0.68, SD=0.27, p<0.001; (long guns) N=12, M=0.65, SD=0.25, p<0.001). There were no significant differences in mean suicide death rates across all firearm types when comparing states with or without firearm laws related to "minimum age youth possession", "minimum age youth purchase and sale", or "child access prevention - intentional." Comparing homicide mortality rates for all firearm types revealed no notable distinctions between states with and without the identified laws. Firearm legislation is associated with decreased suicide rates for individuals under 18, but its influence on homicides is less certain. Comprehensive research and thoughtful policy formulation are essential for addressing this pressing public health concern.

Predicting State-Level Firearm Suicide Rates: A Machine Learning Approach Using Public Policy Data

IntroductionOver 40,000 people die by suicide annually in the U.S., and firearms are the most lethal suicide method. There is limited evidence on the effectiveness of many state-level policies on reducing firearm suicide. The objective of this study was to identify public policies that best predict state-level firearm suicide rates. MethodsData from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's WONDER system and the State Firearm Law Database, a longitudinal catalog of 134 firearm safety laws, were analyzed. The analysis included 1,450 observations from 50 states spanning 1991-2019. An ElasticNet regression technique was used to analyze the relationship between the policy variables and firearm suicide rates. Nested cross-validation was performed to tune the model hyperparameters. The study data were collected and analyzed in 2023 and 2024. ResultsThe optimized ElasticNet approach had a mean MSE of 2.07, which was superior to non-regularized and dummy regressor models. The most influential policies for predicting the firearm suicide rate on average included laws requiring firearm dealers that sell handguns to have a state license and laws requiring individuals to obtain a permit to purchase a firearm through an approval process that includes law enforcement, among others. ConclusionsOn average, firearm suicide rates were lower in state-years that had each influential policy active. Notably, these analyses were ecological and non-causal. However, this study was able to use a supervised machine learning approach with inherent feature selection and many policy types to make predictions using unseen data (i.e., balancing Lasso and Ridge regularization penalties).

Association of State Firearm Laws With Firearm Ownership and Mortality

IntroductionFirearm injury is a leading cause of death among Americans. As the right to bear arms is protected by the Second Amendment, policy-makers must consider the impact of legislation on both firearm ownership and firearm harms. Current state of knowledge in firearm research majorly examines the impact of firearm legislation on firearm injuries and fatalities alone, and it relies on correlational analyses. The few studies that consider causal effects employ counterfactual-based inference. This study introduces information-theoretic tools to explore the role of firearm laws in mitigating firearm harms while maintaining citizens’ right to bear arms MethodsWe study monthly time series from January 2000 to October 2019 for the implementation of firearm laws from RAND's State Firearm Law Database, firearm deaths by intent from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention databases, and firearm ownership from an econometric model. We employ transfer entropy, an information-theoretic method that relies on Granger causality, to infer relationships from time series. Specifically, we examine transfer entropy from firearm restrictiveness to deaths per firearm owner, firearm ownership, and firearm deaths, independently ResultsOn a national level, we uncover a negative association from firearm restrictiveness to deaths per firearm owner and a positive association from firearm restrictiveness to firearm ownership. On a regional level, we identify a negative association from firearm restrictiveness to deaths per firearm owner in the Northeast, a negative association from firearm restrictiveness to firearm ownership in the Midwest, and a negative association from firearm restrictiveness to firearm suicides in the South ConclusionsWe present an information-theoretic approach to study relationships in firearm research. Our method provides preliminary evidence for the role of restrictive legislation in promoting safe firearm ownership. We find that firearm acquisition considerably increases following the implementation of restrictive firearm laws and, simultaneously, firearm deaths decrease. These effects vary with respect to death by intent and the geographical region laws were implemented in.

The Link Between State Carceral Violence and Firearm Homicide

The Link Between State Carceral Violence and Firearm Homicide

Characteristics of firearm injury by injury intent: The need for tailored interventions.

While the United States has high quality data on firearm-related deaths, less information is available on those who arrive at trauma centers alive, especially those discharged from the emergency department. This study sought to describe characteristics of patients arriving to trauma centers alive following a firearm injury, postulating that significant differences in firearm injury intent might provide insights into injury prevention strategies. This was a multicenter prospective cohort study of patients treated for firearm-related injuries at 128 US trauma centers from March 2021 to February 2022. Data collected included patient-level sociodemographic, injury and clinical characteristics, community characteristics, and context of injury. The outcome of interest was the association between these factors and the intent of firearm injury. Measures of urbanicity, community distress, and strength of state firearm laws were used to characterize patient communities. A total of 15,232 patients presented with firearm-related injuries across 128 centers in 41 states. Overall, 9.5% of patients died, and deaths were more common among law enforcement and self-inflicted firearm injuries (80.9% and 50.5%, respectively). These patients were also more likely to have a history of mental illness. Self-inflicted firearm injuries were more common in older White men from rural and less distressed communities, whereas firearm assaults were more common in younger Black men from urban and more distressed communities. Unintentional injuries were more common among younger patients and in states with lower firearm safety grades, whereas law enforcement-related injuries occurred most often in unemployed patients with a history of mental illness. Injury, clinical, sociodemographic, and community characteristics among patients injured by a firearm significantly differed between intents. With the goal of reducing firearm-related deaths, strategies and interventions need to be tailored to include community improvement and services that address specific patient risk factors for firearm injury intent. Prognostic and Epidemiological; Level III.

State-Level Firearm Laws and Firearm Homicide in US Cities: Heterogenous Associations by City Characteristics.

Despite well-studied associations of state firearm laws with lower state- and county-level firearm homicide, there is a shortage of studies investigating differences in the effects of distinct state firearm law categories on various cities within the same state using identical methods. We examined associations of 5 categories of state firearm laws-pertaining to buyers, dealers, domestic violence, gun type/trafficking, and possession-with city-level firearm homicide, and then tested differential associations by city characteristics. City-level panel data on firearm homicide casesof 78 majorcities from 2010 to 2020 wasassessed from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Vital Statistics System. We modeled log-transformed firearm homicide rates as a function of firearm law scores, city, state, and year fixed effects, along with time-varying city-level confounders. We considered effect measure modification by poverty, unemployment, vacant housing, and income inequality. A one z-score increase in state gun type/trafficking, possession, and dealer law scores was associated with 25% (95% confidence interval [CI]:-0.37,-0.1), 19% (95% CI:-0.29,-0.07), and 17% (95% CI:-0.28, -0.4) lower firearm homicide rates, respectively. Protective associations were less pronounced in cities with high unemployment and high housing vacancy, but more pronounced in cities with high income inequality. In large US cities, state-level gun type/trafficking, possession, and dealer laws were associated with lower firearm homicide rates, but buyers and domestic violence laws were not. State firearm laws may have differential effects on firearm homicides based on city characteristics, and city-wide policies to enhance socioeconomic drivers may add benefits of firearm laws.

Trends in pediatric firearm-related injuries and disparities in acute outcomes.

Firearm-related injuries (FRI) are an increasing cause of death and injury in children. The etiology for this rise is multifactorial and includes socioeconomic factors. Despite its prevalence and documented increase over COVID-19, there is a paucity of research on disparities and the influence of social determinants of health (SDH) in pediatric FRI. This study aims to explore the epidemiology of this vulnerable population in Atlanta, trends over time and relevant dates such as COVID-19 and a state firearm law, and disparities in clinical outcomes. Retrospective cohort of patients with FRI (0-20 years-old, x̄=9.8, Median = 11) presenting to our hospital EDs from January 2014 to April 2023 (N = 701) and eligible for the Trauma Registry. This period includes two major events, namely the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2020), and passage of state law Constitutional Carry Act (SB 319) (April 2022), allowing for permit-less concealed firearm carry. Single series interrupted time series (ITS) models were run and clinical outcome differences between race and insurance groups were calculated unadjusted and adjusted for confounders using inverse propensity treatment weights (IPTW). The primary outcome was mortality; secondary are admission and discharge. Majority of FRI involved patients who were male (76.7%), Black (74.9%), publicly insured (82.6%), ≤12 years-old (61.8%), and injured by unintentional shootings (45.6%) or assault (43.7%). During COVID-19, there was a sustained increase in FRI rate by 0.42 patients per 1,000 trauma visits per month (95% CI 0.02-0.82, p = 0.042); post-SB 319 it was 2.3 patients per 1,000 trauma visits per month (95% CI 0.23-4.31, p = 0.029). Publicly insured patients had 58% lower odds of mortality than privately insured patients (OR 0.42, 95% CI 0.18-0.99, p = 0.047). When controlled for race and mechanism of injury, among other confounding factors, this association was not significant (p = 0.652). Pediatric FRI are increasing over time, with disproportionate burdens on Black patients, at our hospitals. Disparities in mortality based on insurance necessitate further study. As social and economic repercussions of COVID-19 are still present, and state firearm law SB 319 is still in effect, assessment of ongoing trends is warranted to inform preventative strategies.

Bullet holes: A novel model to identify the most impactful gaps in the firearm homicide prevention laws of each state.

Firearm homicides (FH) are a major cause of mortality in the United States. Firearm law implementation is variable across states, and legislative gaps may represent opportunities for FH prevention. For each state, we sought to identify which firearm law category would have been most effective if implemented and how effective it would have been. We conducted a retrospective cohort study examining the effects of firearm laws on FH rates in the 48 contiguous US states 2010 to 2019. Data were obtained from the CDC WONDER and FBI UCR databases, State Firearm Law Database, and US Census. Firearm laws were grouped into 14 categories. We assessed the association between the presence of each law category and FH rate as an incidence rate ratio (IRR) using a Poisson regression accounting for state population characteristics and laws of surrounding states. We estimated the IRR for each state that did not have a given law category present and determined which of these missing law categories would have been associated with the greatest reduction in FH rate. FH rates varied widely across states and increased from a mean of 3.2 (SD = 1.7) to 4.2 (SD = 2.9) FH per 100,000. All law categories were significantly associated with decreased FH rate ( p < 0.05), with IRR ranging from 0.25 to 0.85. The most effective missing law category differed between states but was most commonly child access prevention (34.09% of states), assault weapons and large-capacity magazines (15.91%), preemption (15.91%), and concealed carry permitting (13.64%). In total across 2010 to 2019, we estimated that 129,599 fewer FH would have occurred with enactment of the most effective missing law category in each state. Modeling firearm law prevention of FH with regard to state legislative and population characteristics can identify the highest impact missing law categories in each state. These results can be used to inform efforts to reduce FH. Prognostic and Epidemiological; Level IV.

The Association Between State Minimum Wage and Firearm Homicides, 2000–2020

IntroductionRecent research has indicated an association between both poverty and income inequality and firearm homicides. Increased minimum wages may serve as a strategy for reducing firearm violence by increasing economic security among workers earning low wages and reducing the number of families living in poverty. This study aimed to examine the association between state minimum wage and firearm homicides in the United States between 2000 and 2020. MethodsState minimum wage, obtained from Temple's Law Atlas and augmented by legal research, was conceptualized using the Kaitz Index. State-level homicide counts were obtained from 2000-2020 multiple-cause-of death mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System. Log-linear regressions were conducted to model the associations between state minimum wage and firearm homicides, stratifying by demographic groups. Analyses were conducted in 2023. ResultsA one percentage point increase in a state's Kaitz Index was associated with a 1.3% (95% CI: -2.1% to –0.5%) decrease in a state's firearm homicide rate. When interacted with quartile of firearm ownership, the Kaitz Index was associated with decreases in firearm homicide in all except the lowest quartile. These findings were largely consistent across stratifications. ConclusionsChanging a state's minimum wage, whereby a full-time minimum wage worker's salary is closer to a state's median income may be an option for reducing firearm homicides.

Beyond Laws: Governors’ Roles in Shaping State Firearm Environments, 2020–2022

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Racially Disparate Policy Responses to Mass Shootings

This study examines the differential impact of mass shootings on state gun policy restrictions and posits that victims' race and ethnicity plays a pivotal role. Since the 1970s, pro-gun movements have exploited latent racial biases to oppose gun control measures. They frame gun control as prioritizing the protection of racial minorities over the rights and safety of White Americans, creating political resistance. However, when mass shootings affect White communities, perceptions of the primary beneficiaries of gun control temporarily change. Utilizing a 30-year state panel dataset, the study demonstrates that ten White mass shooting fatalities lead to approximately 1–1.5 restrictive state firearm laws on average, while the same number of fatalities among racial and ethnic minorities has a negative but inconsistent effect on state gun restrictions. These findings are robust to a wide range of modeling specifications and when controlling for other victim-level demographic characteristics. Empirical evidence suggests that legislators and gun control interest groups display stronger support for restrictive legislation following mass shootings involving White victims but not racial and ethnic minority victims.

Modeling State Firearm Law Adoption Using Temporal Network Models.

US states are largely responsible for the regulation of firearms within their borders. Each state has developed a different legal environment with regard to firearms based on different values and beliefs of citizens, legislators, governors, and other stakeholders. Predicting the types of firearm laws that states may adopt is therefore challenging. We propose a parsimonious model for this complex process and provide credible predictions of state firearm laws by estimating the likelihood they will be passed in the future. We employ a temporal exponential-family random graph model to capture the bipartite state law-state network data over time, allowing for complex interdependencies and their temporal evolution. Using data on all state firearm laws over the period 1979-2020, we estimate these models' parameters while controlling for factors associated with firearm law adoption, including internal and external state characteristics. Predictions of future firearm law passage are then calculated based on a number of scenarios to assess the effects of a given type of firearm law being passed in the future by a given state. Results show that a set of internal state factors are important predictors of firearm law adoption, but the actions of neighboring states may be just as important. Analysis of scenarios provide insights into the mechanics of how adoption of laws by specific states (or groups of states) may perturb the rest of the network structure and alter the likelihood that new laws would become more (or less) likely to continue to diffuse to other states. The methods used here outperform standard approaches for policy diffusion studies and afford predictions that are superior to those of an ensemble of machine learning tools. The proposed framework could have applications for the study of policy diffusion in other domains.

Gun Laws, Stay-at-Home Orders, and Poverty: Surges in Pandemic Firearm Violence in Large US Cities

IntroductionThe COVID-19 pandemic heralded a surge in firearm homicides (FH) in many, but not all, urban centers. We aimed to determine the relationship of firearm restrictive legislation, stay-at-home orders (SaHOs), and FH during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in US cities. MethodsDemographics and socioeconomic data were captured from the 2020 US Census for large (population ≥250,000) cities. FH data were captured from the Gun Violence Archive. We retrieved firearm recovery estimates from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms Firearms Trace Database. Firearm restrictive legislation was gathered from the State Firearm Laws Database. SaHO durations were found from press releases and government sources. Variables with P ≤ 0.200 in univariate linear regression were entered into a final multivariable model. ResultsA median of 7.5 FH per 100,000 people occurred in the 85 included US cities across 32 states in 2020 (range, 0.35-69.80 per 100,000). In multivariable regression, longer SaHOs (β: 0.033, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.014-0.053, P = 0.001) and higher poverty (β: 0.471, 95% CI: 0.280-0.670, P < 0.001) were associated with increases in FH. Handgun-specific laws (β: −0.793, 95% CI: −1.430 to −0.160, P = 0.015) were associated with lower FH. ConclusionsWe found that poverty and longer SaHOs were associated with increased FH in large US cities during the height of the pandemic, while handgun-specific laws were associated with a decrease. Reducing poverty, mitigating the negative effects of SaHOs, and expanding handgun-specific legislation may protect from surges in FH during future crises.

Surveillance for Violent Deaths — National Violent Death Reporting System, 48 States, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico, 2020

Surveillance for Violent Deaths — National Violent Death Reporting System, 48 States, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico, 2020

State Firearm Laws and Rate of Assault-Related Firearm Death.

Studying firearm-related mortality is important to reduce preventable firearm death in the US. This study aims to determine the relationship between firearm laws and assault death with firearms. This ecologic study used public data from the CDC Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research on decedents age 18 years or older who died from assault with firearms between 2009 and 2018 in all 50 states and Washington, DC. The outcomes were the rate of mortality per 100,000 persons from assault death by firearm used. Exposures of interest included the presence of 7 state firearm laws extracted from the RAND State Firearm Law Database. Welch's t tests were performed to compare mean mortality rate in states with each firearm law to states without each law. There were 114,945 deaths from assault with firearms from 2009 to 2018. States with "stand your ground" laws had a higher assault mortality rate from all firearms and from other/unspecified firearms than states without stand your ground laws (p = 0.026; p = 0.023). States with background checks for private sales of handguns and long guns had a lower assault mortality rate from handguns and rifles, shotguns, and large firearms, respectively, than states without either law (p = 0.019; p = 0.030). Stand your ground laws are correlated with a higher rate of gun-related assault death, but background checks on private sales are correlated with a lower rate. Future studies should elucidate the specific pathways by which state laws reduce, or fail to reduce, firearm-related assault death.

The Diffusion of Punitive Firearm Preemption Laws Across U.S. States

Firearm violence is a public health crisis. Most states prohibit local firearm laws, but some states have laws that allow for lawsuits and other penalties against local governments and lawmakers who pass firearm laws deemed preempted. These punitive firearm preemptive laws may reduce firearm policy innovation, discussion, and adoption beyond preemption alone. Yet, it is unknown how these laws spread from state to state. In 2022, using an event history analysis framework with state dyads, logistic regression models estimate the factors associated with adoption and diffusion of firearm punitive preemption laws, including state-level demographic, economic, legal, political, population, and state-neighbor factors. As of 2021, 15 states had punitive firearm preemption laws. Higher numbers of background checks (AOR=1.50; 95% CI=1.15, 2.04), more conservative government ideology (AOR=7.79; 95% CI=2.05, 35.02), lower per capita income (AOR=0.16; 95% CI=0.05, 0.44), a higher number of permissive state firearm laws (AOR=2.75; 95% CI=1.57, 5.30), and neighboring state passage of the law (AOR=3.97; 95% CI=1.52, 11.51) were associated with law adoption. Both internal and external state factors predict the adoption of punitive firearm preemption. This study may provide insight into which states are susceptible to adoption in the future. Advocates, especially in neighboring states without such laws, may want to focus their firearm safety policy efforts on opposing the passage of punitive firearm preemption.