Stable Exchange Research Articles

Managing effects of Forex Rate’s fluctuation on Pakistan’s Trade Balance

Pakistan is a most important country of South Asia with highly significant geo strategic location and aim behind conducting study pertains to explore effects of Forex rate, GDP & Discount rate on our country’s trade balance through analysis of its economy. Trade balance of a country reflects surplus in instance exports are more in value than purchase of goods and services from abroad & in instance imports exceeds the price of merchandise & services sold abroad by a state. Therefore, to explore whether fluctuations of exchange rates, GDP & discount rate bear any important effect on our country’s trade balance we have acquired yearly statistics of Forex rate, GDP & discount rate from the website of SBP and Bureau of Statistics. These statistics encompassed forty six year figures pertaining to period w.e.f 1977 to June, 2022. Hence to accomplish our aim several test like Unit root, Auto Regressed Distribution Lag , Bound test ,Autocorrelation, Ramsey Test, Correlation, Multicollinaerity and Heteroscedasticity test have been conducted which helped out to wind up that an important and + ve link exist among trade balance, foreign exchange rate GDP & discount rate , hence it is concluded that stability of foreign exchange rates, increase in GDP and rational discount rate may create a positive atmosphere as well as bring improvement in trade balance.

Slope gradient altered microbial community composition in the sloping cropland in black soil

Soil microorganisms are the main driving force in ecological and biogeochemical processes, such as carbon mineralization, humus formation, and nutrient cycles. Soil erosion may dramatically alter microbial properties. In hilly areas, soil erosion is highly attributed to topographic properties such as slope position and gradient. However, it is still unclear how slope position and gradient affects soil microbial characteristics. Herein, we compared the soil microbial characteristics in the sloping cropland between different slope gradients (0°–1.5°, 3°–5°, >5°) and positions (top, middle, and bottom) in the typical black soil area of Northeast China. The results indicated that slope gradient significantly influenced soil clay content, water stable aggregate, organic matter, available potassium, total dissolved nitrogen and pH. In comparison, slope position had no noticeable impact on the physical or chemical properties. Results showed that Proteobacteria, Acidobacteria, Gemmatimonadetes, Planctomycetes, and Actinobacteria comprise 92 % of all phyla, whereas the top five bacterial families and genera account for 72 % and 50 % of the bacterial sequences, respectively. Ascomycota, Basidiomycota, and Chytridiomycota made up 83 % of the phyla, and the top five families and genera made up 43 % and 31 %, respectively, of the entire fungi sequence. Microbial alpha diversity (bacteria and fungi) was similar among the slope gradients and slope positions. The bacterial and fungal community composition was only affected by the slope gradient, with the highest slope gradient having a significantly lower value than other levels. Based on RDA analysis, water stable aggregate, clay content, organic matter, available nitrogen and cation exchange capacity concentration appeared to be the most critical factors in shaping bacterial and fungal communities. This study suggests that slope gradient but not slope position might be the main topographic factor decreasing microbial community composition in the sloped cropland area.

Real exchange rate convergence in the euro area: Evidence from a dynamic factor model

This paper uses a time-varying error-correction model to measure the speed of real exchange rate (RER) convergence of the original European monetary union (EMU) member countries both before and after the introduction of the euro with those of a larger sample of European countries. These estimates are then incorporated into a multivariate dynamic factor model to identify common European and EMU-specific components determining the temporal dynamics of RER adjustment across these two country groupings. We find the convergence speed in the EMU members to have accelerated substantially from the mid-2000s, stalling only briefly in the wake of the Great Recession of 2007–09 and the subsequent European debt crisis of 2010–12. In contrast, the speed of RER adjustment for the larger sample of European countries displays a secular slowdown lasting to the end of the sample in the late 2010s. The evidence suggests that the EMU members in fact experienced a genuine exchange rate stabilization, particularly during the latter years of the sample.

Analysis of Human Development Index, Government Expenditure, Exports and Imports on Economic Growth in ASEAN-5

This study aims to analyze the Human Development Index, Government Expenditure, Exports and Imports on Economic Growth in Singapore, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. Using secondary data the period 2010-2021. The method used is the Quantitative method using Panel Data Regression. Results of panel data regression, export variable product has a positive and significant effect on economic growth. These results reveal that to increase economic growth, it is necessary to increase export performance. Increasing export performance can be done in various ways, one of which is by improving the export administration system, increasing research and product development, improving infrastructure facilities and infrastructure, exchange rate stability and expanding non-traditional markets

Addressing Balance of Payment Disequilibrium Through Non-Oil Export and Exchange Rate Stability in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation

Abstract This study investigates the impact of non-oil export on the Nigeria balance of payment between 1981 and 2020. To achieve the broad objective, two specific objectives were set out, viz: investigate the impact of non-oil export on the Nigeria balance of payment; and examine the level of impact of exchange rate volatility on balance of payment in Nigeria. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM), the findings of the study show that non-oil exports have had a strong positive impact on Nigeria’s balance of payment within the period under study both in the short and long-run. It shows that a percentage increase in non-oil export increases the balance of payment (surplus) by 31.47 % in the long-run. However, exchange rate was shown to have had a negative blow on Nigeria’s balance of payment, though not statistically significant. The study therefore recommend among others that, for Nigeria to enjoy a surplus balance of payment, which is one of her major macroeconomic goals, there is the need to shift attention to the non-oil sector which has always been the main source of her foreign exchange earnings prior to the discovery of crude oil.

Janus microbial membrane constructed by multiple biological self-assembly for photothermal conversion

Biological self-assembly as a kind of biological spontaneous behavior presents low energy consumption and high efficiency. In this work, biomass membrane is closely combined with carbon membrane derived from microorganism by biological self-assembly, forming Janus membrane (FAS-MC@M). The biomass-derived carbon membrane is endowed with superior photothermal conversion efficiency, also with the enhanced salt resistance via its hydrophobic nature and salt excretion domains. On the other hand, the biomass layer with good hydrophilicity and abundant capillary transport pipes ensure rapid water transfer to the Janus interface, conducing to stable heat exchange. The intrinsic micropores of the mycelium fiber can secure the reliable salt ion exchange between the tube water and bulk water during evaporation, which inhibit salt crystals formation as well. Meanwhile, biomass layer also reveals the relatively high thermal insulation properties, which can lower heat loss of the carbon membrane and improve the heat accumulation effect. For oily sewage, the biomass layer is also effective in protecting the photoheat exchange interface (carbon membrane) from oil pollution. In fact, the Janus evaporator in this work achieved 3.2 kg m-2h−1 evaporation rate under one solar intensity, showing desirable evaporation desalination potential.

Modeling Exchange Rate Volatility of ASEAN Member Countries

This study investigates the volatility of exchange rates in nine selected ASEAN member countries, using five forms of the GARCH model. Daily data was sourced from the Bank of Thailand website database, as Baht per foreign currency, over the period from October 2, 2018 to October 7, 2022. This data included Malaysia Ringgit, Singapore Dollar, Brunei Darussalam Dollar, Philippines Peso, Indonesia Rupiah, Myanmar Kyat, Cambodia Riel, Laos Kip, and Vietnam Dong. According to the findings of this study, only eight of the exchange rates were suitable for analysis. In addition, the GARCH ( 1,1) , TGARCH ( 1,1) , and PGARCH ( 1,1) models were determined to be the most applicable, and leverage effects were observed in certain exchange rates. To mitigate the risk associated with trade and investment activities, investors should closely monitor news that is likely to affect the value of exchange rates. In order to design actions that promote exchange rate stability, government agents, on the other hand, must ensure they are current on such news.

MEMPERCEPAT PEMULIHAN EKONOMI, MENJAGA STABILITAS NILAI TUKAR

VAR models for non-stationary time series with one or more cointegration relationships have been developed using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The unique way of behaving in the VECM should be seen through the reactions of each dependent variable to shocks to these and other environmental factors. The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship between Indonesia's economic expansion and exchange rate stability. With a free-floating regime from 1980 to 2022, Indonesia's exchange rate fluctuated, affecting economic stability. Exchange rates are correlated with economic expansion in both the short and long term, according to this study. Long-term economic growth can be driven by exchange rate appreciation, but there is no causal relationship because economic growth factors go beyond exchange rate considerations

The influence of corona pandemic on stock returns of companies listed on the Palestine Stock Exchange

Purpose This study aims to explore and verify the influence of the corona pandemic on the stock returns of the Palestinian companies listed on the Palestine Exchange during the period 2020–2021. Design/methodology/approach The research makes use of secondary financial data from 52 companies in the industrial, investment, services, banking and insurance sectors. Many financial ratios are calculated to assess stock returns: current ratio, cash ratio and average collection time as liquidity measures; debt-to-equity ratio as an indication of leverage or solvency; and net profit margin as an indicator of profitability. The research examines ratios between the (2020 and 2021) precorona outbreak using the Wilcoxon signed rank test and financial ratio analysis during the corona pandemic. Findings The findings show that liquidity in the investment, banking, insurance and industrial sectors has decreased significantly, whereas liquidity in the service sector has improved. The statistics reveal a considerable growth in debt in the service sector, while it stays unchanged in the other sectors. However, there is no discernible change in profitability during and after the corona outbreak. Research limitations/implications The present research faced many limitations, such as the approach to gathering primary data, which depended heavily on disclosures, financial reports and secondary data, as well as only analyzing one context and one country. Practical implications The findings of this study can guide the Palestinian government and decision-makers to respond to the COVID-19 outbreak and must act quickly because strong short-term policies are more functional than long-term policy measures. In addition, the temporal discrepancy between their policy actions and financial regulations regarding the stage of the outbreak, integrating monetary treatment methods, strengthening their control over exchange rate fluctuations and extending the duration of financial participation measures that ensure stable exchange rates, such as attempting to restrict trade of the monetary system between countries was assessed to reduce the important monetary stimulation policy. Originality/value This study presents important facts and results for regulators and decision-makers regarding the investment, industry, banking, insurance and services sectors as sectors that are most affected by the corona pandemic as a sample for this study from the Palestinian companies listed in Palestine Stock Exchange due to the corona pandemic.

Growth drivers in emerging capitalist economies: building blocks for a post-Keynesian analysis and an empirical exploration of the years before and after the Global Financial Crisis

This paper contributes to the growth models debate by expanding the concept of growth drivers to emerging capitalist economies (ECEs). Conceptually, the paper synthesizes growth drivers with a growth model operationalization based on GDP growth contributions and financial sector balances. Drawing on post-Keynesian and structuralist economics, as well as, empirical studies, seven growth drivers for ECEs are reviewed: income distribution, price and non-price competitiveness, commodity prices, private debt, foreign direct investment (FDI) and fiscal policy. Descriptive data for these drivers are presented for 19 regionally grouped ECEs between 2000 and 2019. On average, Asian ECEs exhibit higher growth rates, stable real exchange rates, high and increasing non-price competitiveness and high private debt levels. Latin American countries show comparatively lower growth rates, high but decreasing income inequality, unstable exchange rates and relatively expansionary fiscal policy after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Central and Eastern European countries generally display medium to high growth rates, lower income inequality, high non-price competitiveness, a substantial FDI stock and, after the GFC, real depreciations and contractionary fiscal policy. The assessment of cross-country growth drivers via bivariate coefficients reveals limited robust results, except for non-price competitiveness, which emerges as a significant driver. Additionally, we find indications that private debt and expansionary fiscal policy became more important for growth in ECEs after the GFC. This is in line with the emergence of domestic demand- and private debt-led growth models in ECEs following the GFC in the course of private deleveraging and austerity policies in developed capitalist economies.

INTERCONNECTION OF INFLATION, BI RATE, AND EXCHANGE RATE ON MUDHARABAH AND MURABAHAH FINANCING

The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between inflation, BI interest rates, and exchange rates on Mudharabah and Murabahah financing at Sharia Commercial Banks. This research is a quantitative study that applies the Johansen Integration Test and Vector Error Correction Model to see the long-term impact and shock response on certain variables. Research findings show that the exchange rate has a significant negative impact in the short term on Mudharabah financing income, while inflation factors and BI interest rates have a smaller negative impact in the short term. The receipt of Murabahah financing is negatively affected by all factors, especially inflation, BI interest rates, and currency exchange rates. Inflation and exchange rates have a significant negative impact in the long run on Mudharabah and Murabahah financing income, while BI interest rates have a small positive impact in the long run. Recommendations based on the results of this study are the importance of maintaining exchange rate stability and controlling inflation, as well as the need for effective risk management in the face of exchange rate fluctuations and inflation. In addition, Islamic banks need to improve operational efficiency, educate customers about economic risks, and encourage collaboration between relevant institutions for further research and better policy development.

Analysis Of Umer Chapra Thought on Islamic Monetary Instruments in Indonesia: A Vector Autoregressive (VAR) And Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Approach

Economic growth and exchange rate stability are each state's goals in the Islamic monetary system. Therefore, there is a need to develop effective instruments to support the achievement of the monetary objectives. This study aimed to determine the effect of Islamic monetary instruments variables proposed by Umer Chapra on economic growth and exchange rate stability in Indonesia, the amount of influence of each variable, and how significant the influence exerted by each variable. M. Umer Chapra is a Modern Muslim economist trying to popularise the Islamic economic system, including the Islamic monetary policy. The originality of the paper lies in its combination of various statistical tests and analyses to examine the relationships among the variables studied. Through utilising VAR/VECM approach, the results showed that deposit money has a negative impact on economic growth while M0 and SRR provide a positive impact. However, for the stability of the exchange rate, all variables (LNM0, LNDM and SRR) shows a negative trend towards exchange rate stability.

Pandangan Tokoh Masyarakat dan Pedagang Wonocolo terhadap Penggunaan Uang Rusak atau Cacat pada Transaksi Jual Beli dalam Perspektif UU No. 7 Tahun 2011

Buying and selling transactions using damaged/defective money is a topic of concern in the Islamic view. Because of this, this research was made to discuss the use of damaged/defective money in buying and selling transactions from the point of view of community leaders and traders in Wonocolo District which will then be analyzed by Law Number 7 of 2011. This research was conducted through a qualitative approach using interviews and participatory observation as method of collecting data. The results of the study show that there are differences of opinion between community leaders and traders regarding the use of damaged/defective money in buying and selling transactions. Some community leaders and traders are of the opinion that the use of damaged/defective money in buying and selling transactions is not in accordance with the legal perspective stipulated in Law Number 7 of 2011. They are of the opinion that the money used in transactions must meet the criteria of validity, not be defective, and have stable exchange rate. They also stated that the use of damaged/defective money could violate the principles of fairness and reduce trust in buying and selling transactions. However, different views also emerge, especially among traders.

The Effects of Money Supply on Exchange Rate: Evidence of Dornbusch Overshooting Model in Indonesia (2000-2021)

This study aims to analyze the effects of money supply on exchange rate in Indonesia and to investigate whether there is an application of the Dornbusch Overshooting Model. The Autoregressive Distributed-Lag (ARDL) method is used to analyze short-term and long-term effects and uses time-series data from 2000:Q1 to 2021:Q4. The results of this study show that the long-term coefficient of the money supply has a smaller effect on the depreciating exchange rate than the short-term coefficient. Based on the estimation results, it can be concluded that there is an application of the Dornbusch Overshooting Model in Indonesia. A further implication of this research is that the factors that influence exchange rate fluctuations are of great concern in an effort to maintain exchange rate stability. For example, growth in the money supply because a 1 percent change in the money supply results in a change of more than 1 percent in the exchange rate. In addition to the money supply, other variables such as inflation and interest rates also have a large influence on changes in exchange rates and have different magnitudes of influence in the short and long-run.

AKUNTANSI TRANSLASI DENGAN SISTEM MONETER ISLAM SEBAGAI SOLUSI ALTERNATIF TREN INFLASI GLOBAL

ABSTRACT
 
 The inflation fluctuates in all countries, impacting the process of preparing financial reports. Especially if the business or organization operates in several countries and needs to report its financial condition periodically. The aim of research is to have an overview of the mechanism of translation accounting when inflation occurs and the comparison if translation accounting is carried out using the Islamic monetary system. The method used is a descriptive qualitative method approach and content analysis techniques. From studies conducted on various literature and analyzing existing data, it can be seen that fluctuating currency values ​​are a particular challenge in the international business environment. Also related to this is an increase in the value of money for goods and services known as inflation. Accounting for price changes is relevant to international businesses and organizations, since inflation rates vary substantially between countries today. And affect financial reporting as a distorting effect of inflation. The Islamic monetary system is an alternative solution for presenting accurate financial information to business entities or organizations, because of its stable exchange rate. The Islamic monetary system has stability of the exchange rate, because the exchange rate is independent, cannot be intervened by anyone and any policy.
 
 Keywords: Translation Accounting, Islamic Monetary, Global Inflation

Capital flow volatility regimes and monetary policy dilemma: Evidence from New Zealand

Mundell–Fleming’s trilemma underlines tradeoffs among three things: stable exchange rates, independent monetary policy, and free capital mobility. Rey (2015) finds that the global financial cycle has transformed the “trilemma” into a “dilemma” that constrains monetary policy independence, regardless of the exchange rate regime. Complementary to the existing literature on this framework, we concentrate on the importance of the volatility regimes of capital flows. We estimate a structural Bayesian threshold vector autoregression (TVAR) on New Zealand quarterly data from 1997:I to 2020:IV. Having allowed for different volatility regimes, we find that the “dilemma” will always bind a small open economy like New Zealand. Not only does the amount of capital flow matter, but its volatility also causes substantial impacts. We also find that a contractionary monetary policy shock lowers capital flow volatility, but hinders real GDP growth in the high volatility regime.

Highly conductive and robustly stable anion exchange membranes with a star-branched crosslinking structure

In order to improve the ionic conductivity and durability of anion exchange membranes (AEMs), novel ether free AEMs are prepared based on 6-bromo-1-hexanol quaternized poly(terphenyl piperidine)s by construction of a star-branched crosslinking structure via a crosslinker of 1,3,5-tris(bromomethyl)benzene. The star-branched crosslinking network enhances the dimensional stability and mechanical property without occupying the active sites for cation production. Suitable microphase separations with ionic cluster spacing within 19.68–20.72 nm are formed according to the SAXS results. The proposed AEMs exhibit hydroxide ion (OH‾) conductivity ranging from 118 to 136 mS cm−1 at 80 °C. The dense crosslinking structure and flexible side chains endow the AEMs with excellent resistance against the attack of OH‾ ions. About 80% of the conductivity retention rate is achieved after immersing the AEMs in 1 mol L−1 KOH aqueous solutions at 80 °C for 1600 h. A single H2/O2 fuel cell employing the prepared membrane as the electrolyte exhibits a peak power density of 639 mW cm−2 at 60 °C without back pressure.

APPLIED SOME MIXTURE 2 AND 3 DISTRIBUTION FOR DAILY EXCHANGE RATE AMERICAN DOLLAR VS INDONESIAN RUPIAH PROBABILITY MODELLING

As a world superpower, the United States has a very stable exchange rate and has a big impact on the currencies of other countries, like Indonesia. Probability modeling is therefore essential for analyzing the change in exchange rates between the Indonesian rupiah (IDR) and the US dollar (USD). In addition to comparing the distributions of two parameters, this study also discusses the use of several mixture 2 and 3 component distribution probability models, such as mixture 2 log-normal (ML2), mixture 2 Gamma (MG2), mixture 2 Weibull (MW2), mixture 3 Log-Normal (ML3), mixture 3 Gamma (MG3), and a mixture 3 Weibull (MW3). The maximum likelihood method is used for parameter estimation, and numerical methods like Akaike Information Cretarius (AIC) and Bayesian Information Cretarius (BIC) are used to select the best model, also known as the Goodness of Fit (GOF). Then, the GOF between the model distribution and the theoretical data is evaluated. The ML3 distribution-based daily USD/IDR exchange rate data can be best modeled using the MLE approach, as demonstrated by the results. We are able to reasonably forecast the risks associated with daily exchanges in the future on the basis of the identified models

Highly conductive and dimensionally stable anion exchange membranes enabled by rigid poly(arylene alkylene) backbones

Dimensionally and chemically stable anion exchange membranes with excellent ion conductivity are highly desired in electrochemical energy conversion technologies. Herein, we present a design using rigid arylene units, i.e., p-tetraphenylene and p-terphenylene, to suppress the water sorption of quaternized poly(arylene alkylene) membranes with high ion contents. Of note, side chain double-quaternary ammonium (QA) functionalized poly(q-tetraphenylene-co-p-terphenylene alkylene) membrane P(4PA-co-3PA)-D100 with the IEC value as high as 2.93 mmol g−1 showed very limited water uptake and swelling at 80 °C of 75 wt% and 14 %, respectively. Meanwhile, the immiscibility of hydrophilic double-cation side chain and the hydrophobic poly(arylene alkylene) backbone drives the formation of phase-separated morphology. As a result, P(4PA-co-3PA)-D100 showed an exceptional conductivity of 227.8 mS cm−1 at 80 °C with activation energy of 10.5 kJ mol−1. Despite the rigid poly(arylene alkylene) backbone with highly chemical durability and oxidative stability, the tandem tethered double cation in the side chain showed a 11 % QA moiety loss after a 1000-h treatment in 2 M NaOH at 80 °C. Moreover, a good peak power density of 550 mW cm−2 at the current density of 1.06 A cm−2 was achieved for P(4PA-co-3PA)-D100 with the gases flow of 200 mL min−1. This work demonstrates that, in addition to the approach of cross-linking, the highly conductive AEMs with excellent dimensional stability can be achieved by improving the rigidity of polymer backbones.

Challenges in correlating oxygen stable isotope ratios of hydrates on uranium ore concentrates to process waters

Abstract Exchange of oxygen stable isotopes (δ18O values) between precipitation waters and uranium oxides is governed by thermodynamics or kinetics. It has been assumed that meteoric waters can be related to precipitation waters in uranium ore concentrates and their calcined and reduced uranium oxide products. With this assumption, the δ18O values of uranium materials could provide forensic signatures that identify the production history and geolocation of nuclear materials. To further exploit the potential of δ18O values in nuclear material analysis, this study examines the oxygen stable isotope exchange in two UOCs, magnesium diuranate (MDU) and sodium diuranate (SDU). MDU and SDU were synthesized from solutions of uranyl nitrate hexahydrate using precipitation waters with unique oxygen isotope compositions. The structures of the MDU and SDU were analyzed using powder X-ray diffraction (p-XRD) and thermal mass loss curves, while the δ18O values of waters generated during thermal decomposition were analyzed using a thermogravimetric analyzer coupled to an isotope ratio infrared spectrometer (TGA-IRIS). By p-XRD, the MDU was uniform and amorphous across all syntheses with residual crystalline material incorporated as a minor component. Combined with the TGA results, all of the MDU is likely amorphous MgU2O7·3H2O with MgO impurities present throughout. In contrast, the SDU synthesis resulted in multiple phases with many samples exhibiting crystalline phases including a combination of Na(UO2)4O2(OH)5·5H2O and Na2(UO2)6O4(OH)6·8H2O with a Na2U2O7 minor phase. A small fraction of the SDU samples were amorphous with no crystalline XRD peaks observed. Mass loss curves of the SDU samples revealed that the amorphous samples contained inclusions of similar crystalline phases compared to the crystalline materials. The uniformity of the MDU samples enabled highly reproducible measurements of δ18O values of the water vapor yielded from two dehydration events at 170 °C and 500 °C. In contrast, the multiphase composition of the SDU samples resulted in poor reproducibility in δ18O values. Neither system revealed any correlation between the δ18O values of precipitation water and the waters released during dehydration of the UOCs.