Changes In Spatial Patterns Research Articles

Introducing NARCliM1.5: Evaluation and projection of climate extremes for southeast Australia

NARCliM1.5 is the second generation of New South Wales and Australian Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM) project, which is designed to produce an ensemble of regional climate projections for CORDEX Australasia and southeast Australia. The selected global climate models (GCMs) are used to drive Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for dynamical downscaling. In this study, we evaluate how well the two generations of NARCliM (N1.0 and N1.5) represent the observed record for 12 selected climate extremes and examine their projected changes for southeast Australia. N1.5 ensemble substantially improves upon N1.0 in capturing the spatial patterns of precipitation extremes, however, there is little difference between the two ensembles for temperature extremes. Both N1.0 and N1.5 underestimate dry extreme (consecutive dry day - CDD), hot extremes (warmest daily maximum temperature – TXx, and number of days when maximum temperature is greater than 35 °C - TXge35) and daily temperature range (DTR) but overestimate wet extremes (annual sum of daily precipitation above 99th percentile - R99p, consecutive wet days - CWD, days when precipitation is at least 10 mm - R10mm, maximum 1-day precipitation - Rx1Day and total wet day precipitation -PRCPTOT) and cold extreme (coldest daily minimum temperature - TNn). N1.0 and N1.5 project different spatial patterns of future changes in precipitation extremes but similar changes in temperature extremes. Differences in climate extremes between N1.0 and N1.5 could be attributed to the driving GCMs. The combined future projections of both N1.0 and N1.5 provide a more complete sampling of the future change space. Future projections indicate that precipitation and temperature extremes will become more intense, raising implications for future planning and risk management.

Aboveground biomass of marshes in Northeast China: Spatial pattern and annual changes responding to climate change

Examining vegetation aboveground biomass (AGB) changes is important to understanding wetland carbon sequestration. Here, we combined the field-measured AGB data (458 samples) from 2009 to 2021, moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer reflectance products, and climatic data to reveal the AGB variations of marshes in Northeast China by comparing various models driven by different indicators. The results indicated that random forest model driven by six vegetation indices, land surface temperature, and land surface water index achieved accurate marsh AGB estimation with R2 being 0.78 and relative error being 16.71%. The mean marsh AGB in Northeast China from 2000 to 2021 was 682.89 ± 31.69 g·m−2, which generally increased from north to south in space. Temporally, annual marsh AGB declined slowly at a rate of 3.45 g·m−2·year−1 during the past 21 years driven mainly by the decrease in summer mean temperature that was characterized by a significantly positive correlation between them. Nevertheless, we highlighted that the temporal changes of marsh AGB spatially varied in response to inconsistent climate change, thus place-based measures are required for sustainable management of marshes.

Spatial and Temporal Distribution and Source Variation of Heavy Metals in Cultivated Land Soil of Xiangzhou District Based on EBK Interpolation Prediction and GDM Model

In order to explore the spatial and temporal changes in spatial patterns and source changes in heavy metals in Xiangzhou District, 395 and 326 soil samples were collected from cultivated soil in Xiangzhou District in November 2009 and November 2019, respectively. The contents of Cr, Pb, As, Hg, and Cd during these two years were measured. The spatial pattern and variation distribution of five types of heavy metals during these two years were obtained by using the empirical Bayesian Kriging (EBK) method. The effect (q-statistic) of 19 environmental factors and 5 types of heavy metals was calculated by using the geographical detector model (GDM), and the changes over the two years were compared. The results showed that compared with that in 2009, the heavy metal contents of Cr, Pb, Hg, and As in Xiangzhou District were decreased as a whole in 2019, whereas the Cd content increased overall. The spatial differentiation of heavy metals in the soil in Xiangzhou District in 2019 was more complicated than that in 2009. Pb, Hg, and Cd in the south and Hg in the central urban area and surrounding areas also increased. The content of each element decreased to the north and northwest. Compared with that in 2009, the explanatory power of natural factors and the distance between pollution enterprises on the single factor of the five soil heavy metal contents in 2019 decreased, and the influence on the contents under the control of single factors decreased significantly. The superposition influence of human activity factors increased, especially the distance between residential land, road, and land for pollution enterprises and environmental factors on soil heavy metal elements. These results indicated that the changes in soil heavy metal sources in 2019 tended to be complex, with structural factors as the main influencing factor. The influence of the emission of polluting enterprises on heavy metal elements decreased, whereas the influence of human activities on heavy metal content increased.

Characteristics of Land Use Change in China before and after 2000

China, with notable population blooming and economic development in the last decades, has experienced profound land-use changes, which, in turn, dramatically impacted the regional, even global and environment system. However, characteristics of land-use changes in China have not yet been well addressed, especially around the year 2000 when a series of land policies were put forward, such as the project of “returning farmland to forest”. To fill this gap, this paper investigated the temporal and spatial patterns of land use changes in China for the period from 1987 to 2010, by taking advantage of the continually updated China Land Use Database developed from remote sensing images. The land-use dynamic matrix, zonal model, and transition matrix were employed to characterize land-use change patterns for four time intervals (1987–1995, 1995–2000, 2000–2005, and 2005–2010) on the dimensions of conversion and modification. Results showed that land-use change affected 4 × 105 km2 (4.5%) of the total landscape in China for more than the past twenty years. Of the six land-use types, built-up land experienced the largest net increase by almost 30% (52,434 km2), with the rate of expansion accelerating after 1995. The area of cropland increased before 2000 and declined afterwards, ending with a net increase in 14,280 km2, approximately 1% of its original area. The loss in the eastern coastal region is attributed mainly to built-up land expansion, while the gain in northern China, with the price of grassland and woodland shrinking, reshaped the cropland distribution in China. The area of woodland decreased slightly by 7880 km2 without a clear pattern over time. The modification of woodland indicated an intensive forest management in terms of planting fast-growing trees in the south of China. Grassland continues to shrink at a decreasing rate, and the modification of grassland shows a tendency of transformation from sparse grassland into a dense one in the 21st century. Trade-offs among demands on food security, economic development, and environment protection forced and shaped the contemporary land-use change in China. These results contribute to understanding the trends and causes of land use change in China, which could provide underpinning knowledge for assessing environmental change, and provide insights on future land planning.

О геодинамической устойчивости и безопасности объектов обустройства месторождений прибрежного шельфа Арктики

The article considers a range of the scientific and technical problems, the solution of which will allow to improve the reliability and safety of the offshore oil and gas production, since the current level of technical means development for drilling wells and hydrocarbon production does not always guarantee the safety of processes even in well-studied onshore conditions. Safe development of the offshore oil and gas fields is threatened by: hazardous phenomena and processes in the geological environment (including endogenous and exogenous processes); extreme hydrometeorological factors; errors at all stages of the development (engineering surveys, design, construction, etc.); abnormal technological processes; technogenic hazards, etc. The least predictable are the spatial patterns of changes in the engineering-geological conditions and the activity of the geological processes to determine zones of the geological hazard. Incorrect conclusions of the designers and prospectors, shortcomings of the monitoring system and measures of engineering protection of the developed territories are the cause of emergency situations at oil and gas facilities. The article considers three fields of the Yamal Peninsula: Bovanenkovskoye, Kharasaveyskoye and Kruzenshternskoye, which differ from each other in landscape and geocryological conditions. For the onshore Bovanenkovskoye field, the most appropriate is the placement of the objects within the land terraces. The Kharasaveyskoye field, two-thirds of which is onshore and one-third offshore in the Kara Sea, is developed by the onshore directional and horizontal wells. The most difficult are the conditions of the Kruzenshternskoye field: on the shallow shelf and flooded areas of land, there is a wide distribution of silts, flowing clays, etc., which have low strength and strong compressibility extending to an unknown depth. They can lead to significant drawdown of the artificial islands. Permafrost rocks, gas-saturated soils and near-surface zones of abnormally high reservoir pressure were also identified. For the identified conditions, measures are defined to ensure the stability of the geological environment to technogenic interactions, as well as the tasks of developing scientific and methodological control and preventing risks associated with hazardous fluid-dynamic processes in the cryolithospheric layer of the Arctic shelf.

Evaluate land suitability analysis for rice cultivation using a GIS-based AHP multi-criteria decision-making approach: Majalengka Regency, West Java Province

This research is motivated by the agricultural sector ranks first and plays a vital role in GRDP income in Majalengka Regency. This study aims to predict areas suitable for land use for sustainable food agriculture (LP2B) and evaluate land suitability for rice. We use the Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP), and Geography Information System (GIS) approaches to give weight to the suitability of criteria and sub-criteria that influence multi-criteria decisions. Including using parameters; Soil morphology, elevation, rainfall, water cover, land area, disaster risk, erosion, and slope are the criteria identified as requirements for the intended application. The resulting weights to build a suitability map layer using a weighted sum overlay tool on a GIS platform by involving government stakeholders in Majalengka Regency. The results showed that the map of the evaluation of the suitability of rice production in the study area with the land was very suitable, namely 11% (15,038.49 ha) of the total study area, which was very suitable for rice production. The relationship between suitability maps and changes in spatial patterns in 2022 in the study area has also overlapped. The results showed the suitability of the spatial plan with the results of the suitability map of paddy fields.

Influence of internal variability on future changes in extreme wind speed over North America

Internal variability plays an important role in the projection of climate and extreme climate changes at regional scales. Here, we use large ensemble experiments from two different climate models [the Canadian Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CanESM2-LE) with 50 members and the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM1-LE) with 40 members to investigate the influence of internal variability on the projection of extreme wind speed (extreme WS) in the future (2081–2100) relative to the present climatology (1986–2005) over North America. Generally, the spatial patterns of future changes in extreme WS across members in both ensembles exhibit quite large diversity for the whole year and winter, while consistent changes among members are found in summer. This indicates that the influence of internal variability on the future changes in extreme WS is higher in winter than summer. With enough members, the forced responses allow direct comparisons to demonstrate the model uncertainty. Increases in wintertime extreme WS at high latitudes and around the Hudson Bay, as well as decreases over the west-central USA and along the southwest coast of the domain, are largely influenced by the external forcing with small model uncertainty. Regions within the 40°–60°N latitudinal band of the domain are projected to experience external forced decrease in extreme WS in summer with high model consistency. Results from high-resolution of dynamical downscaling large ensemble simulations (CanRCM4-LE) are comparable with those of its driving models (CanESM2-LE) and can provide detailed information in regions with sea–land contrast and complex topography, which is of great vital for the local policy maker.

CORDEX-EA Phase 2 다중 지역기후모델 앙상블을 이용한 전지구 온난화 제한 목표(1.5, 2.0℃)하에서의 한반도 미래 기온 전망

This study presents a future projection of temperature over the Korean Peninsula (KP) under the global warming targets of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ set in the 2015 Paris Agreement. For projection, simulation data from the multi-Regional Climate Model (RCM) ensemble in Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-East Asia (EA) Phase 2 are used. Under the 2.0℃ (1.5℃) global warming condition, mean temperature over KP would increase 2.13℃ (1.51℃) compared to the present period (1985 ~ 2005 years). Extreme minimum and maximum temperature intensity indices (TNn and TXx) would also increase 2.61℃ (1.91℃) and 2.38℃ (1.58℃). In addition, changes in probabilities of extreme temperature events that occurs once in 20 years during the present period are investigated. Extreme cold events would occur once in 28.9 years (22.6 years) and warm events once in 5.9 years (7.2 years). Meanwhile, there are several noteworthy points about the future projection. The temperature over KP would increase more over the northern KP than the southern KP and this feature is more distinct in TNn. The uncertainties of the projection are higher for the 1.5℃ warming condition than the 2.0℃ warming condition and for extreme temperature versus mean temperature. The spatial pattern of change in extreme temperature frequency is different from that of intensity. In other words, a smaller increase in the frequency of extreme cold events is expected over the inland KP.

Stronger Response to the Aerosol Indirect Effect Due To Cooling in Remote Regions.

It is often assumed that effective radiative forcings, regardless of forcing agent, are additive in the temperature change. Using climate model simulations with abruptly applied aerosol forcing we find that the temperature response per unit forcing is larger if induced by aerosol-cloud interactions than directly by aerosols. The spatial patterns of forcing and temperature change show that aerosol-cloud interactions induce cooling over remote oceans in the extratropics, whereas the effect of increased emissions is localized around the emission sources primarily over tropical land. The results are consistent with ideas of how the patterns of sea surface temperature impact radiative feedbacks, and a large forcing efficacy of aerosol-cloud interactions could help explain previously observed intermodel spread in the response to aerosols.

Prognostic associations of cortical gyrification in minimally medicated schizophrenia in an early intervention setting

The aberration in cortical gyrification seen in schizophrenia likely originates in the earliest phase of life, as gyrification begins in utero and reaches its peak in infancy. However, emerging observations have indicated a later reduction in gyrification, especially in early adulthood, may also occur in schizophrenia. At present, it is unclear whether the baseline and later gyrification reduction has any prognostic importance in schizophrenia. We address this question in a longitudinal design in patients minimally medicated at inception. About 108 minimally medicated (duration of medication = <14 days of antipsychotics) patients and 106 healthy controls underwent structural magnetic resonance imaging, with 34 patients being selectively re-scanned when clinically stable following antipsychotic treatment. The cortical surface from each structural image was reconstructed, and the local gyrification index and cortical thickness were computed for each vertex on the surface. We found minimally medicated schizophrenia patients during the first episode had a relatively higher gyrification in bilateral supramarginal, left superior temporal, and right posterior cingulate and paracentral regions. However, poor prognostic features were more likely in patients with lower baseline gyrification. Longitudinal reductions in left superior parietal and right precentral gyrification were associated with lower improvements in both positive and negative symptoms over time. The spatial pattern of longitudinal changes in gyrification was distinct from the changes in cortical thickness. These results indicated that schizophrenia is characterized by a relative hypergyrification in parieto-temporal and medial cortical areas at a group level at first presentation, but poor outcomes relate to lower-gyrification elsewhere both at the onset and during the early course. The early post-onset reduction of gyrification is rather limited in space and magnitude, but occurs unrelated to the progressive thinning, representing a distinct, prognostically important structural trajectory.

Spatial differences in East Asian climate transition at ∼260 ka and their links to ENSO

The East Asian summer precipitation exhibits significant spatial differences from inter-annual to sub-orbital timescales, which has been associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, studies on spatial patterns of climate and their mechanisms on orbital and tectonic timescales are still scarce, impeding a better understanding of Asian monsoon dynamics on long timescales. Here, we present a loess section spanning the past 430 ka in the Menyuan (MY) basin from the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau (NETP), and compare it with records from other sites in East Asia in order to explore the spatial patterns of climate changes and their mechanisms. Our results reveal a distinct climate transition at ∼260 ka in various records, which is characterized a transition from a “wet–dry–wet” to a “dry–wet–dry” pattern in the north-south direction and a transition from a “dry–wet” to “wet–dry” pattern in the west-east direction. This climate transition coincides with a significant weakening of the equatorial Pacific zonal (east–west) thermal gradient which indicates a shift to a more El Niño-like state, suggesting that the climate transition in East Asia at ∼260 ka could be related to paleo-ENSO variation. A more El Niño-like state could force an intensification and southwestward extension of the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) which could in turn move the rainfall front westward with the maximum rainfall belt over central China, resulting in the persistence of the observed climate patterns in East Asia. Our model results suggest that the change of the paleo-ENSO condition at ∼260 ka could be related to the eccentricity-modulated insolation and the ice shelve changes in northern high latitudes. Our study highlights the important role of paleo-ENSO in regulating the long-term climate changes in different sub-regions in East Asia.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Drive Global Dryland Expansion but Not Spatial Patterns of Change in Aridification

Abstract Drylands play an essential role in Earth’s environment and human systems. Although dryland expansion has been widely investigated in previous studies, there is a lack of quantitative evidence supporting human-induced changes in dryland extent. Here, using multiple observational datasets and model simulations from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, we employ both correlation-based and optimal fingerprinting approaches to conduct quantitative detection and attribution of dryland expansion. Our results show that spatial changes in atmospheric aridity (i.e., the aridity index defined by the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration) between the recent period 1990–2014 and the past period 1950–74 are unlikely to have been caused by greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, it is very likely (at least 95% confidence level) that dryland expansion at the global scale was driven principally by GHG emissions. Over the period 1950–2014, global drylands expanded by 3.67% according to observations, and the dryland expansion attributed to GHG emissions is estimated as ∼4.5%. Drylands are projected to continue expanding, and their populations to increase until global warming reaches ∼3.5°C above preindustrial temperature under the middle- and high-emission scenarios. If warming exceeds ∼3.5°C, a reduction in population density would drive a decrease in dryland population. Our results for the first time provide quantitative evidence for the dominant effects of GHG emissions on global dryland expansion, which is helpful for anthropogenic climate change adaptation in drylands. Significance Statement In the past decades, global drylands have been reported to show changes in space and time, based on atmospheric aridity (i.e., aridity index defined by the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration). Using two detection and attribution methods, the spatial change patterns of atmospheric aridity between 1990–2014 and 1950–74 are unlikely to be driven by greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, whereas the temporal expansion of global drylands (i.e., 3.67% from 1950 to 2014) is principally attributed to GHG emissions (contribution: ∼122%). Quantitative evidence from the detection and attribution analysis supports the dominant role of greenhouse gas emissions in global dryland expansion, which will increase the population suffering from water shortages under future warming unless climate adaptation is adopted.

Eco-Environmental Effects of Changes in Territorial Spatial Pattern and Their Driving Forces in Qinghai, China (1980–2020)

As urbanization and industrialization have advanced in leaps and bounds, the territorial spatial pattern of Qinghai has experienced profound transformation and reconstruction, which has been directly reflected in land-use changes and affected the eco-environment. In this context, we constructed a functional classification system of “production-living-ecological” (PLE), used remote sensing data for six periods from 1980 to 2020, and employed the land transfer matrix, eco-environmental quality index, ecological contribution rate of land-use transformation and geographical detectors to analyze the changes in the territorial spatial patterns, eco-environmental effects and driving forces of eco-environmental quality. The results revealed that (1) the spatial distribution of the province was characterized by the relative agglomeration of the production and living spaces and the absolute dominance of ecological spaces; (2) The eco-environmental quality of the region portrayed a steady improvement, with a significant reduction in the medium–low and low-quality areas; and (3) the annual average precipitation, proportion of non-agricultural area, and socio-economic factors had a significant impact on the eco-environmental quality of the region, meanwhile, national economy and ecological policies are important indirect driving forces of eco-environmental quality. Our findings will provide guidelines for territorial spatial management and serve as a reference for eco-environmental protection in Qinghai.

Spatial patterns of climate change across the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma) is one of our best geological analogs for understanding climate dynamics in a "greenhouse" world. However, proxy data representing the event are only available from select marine and terrestrial sedimentary sequences that are unevenly distributed across Earth's surface, limiting our view of the spatial patterns of climate change. Here, we use paleoclimate data assimilation (DA) to combine climate model and proxy information and create a spatially complete reconstruction of the PETM and the climate state that precedes it ("PETM-DA"). Our data-constrained results support strong polar amplification, which in the absence of an extensive cryosphere, is related to temperature feedbacks and loss of seasonal snow on land. The response of the hydrological cycle to PETM warming consists of a narrowing of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, off-equatorial drying, and an intensification of seasonal monsoons and winter storm tracks. Many of these features are also seen in simulations of future climate change under increasing anthropogenic emissions. Since the PETM-DA yields a spatially complete estimate of surface air temperature, it yields a rigorous estimate of global mean temperature change (5.6 ∘C; 5.4 ∘C to 5.9 ∘C, 95% CI) that can be used to calculate equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). We find that PETM ECS was 6.5 ∘C (5.7 ∘C to 7.4 ∘C, 95% CI), which is much higher than the present-day range. This supports the view that climate sensitivity increases substantially when greenhouse gas concentrations are high.

Continuity in transition: spatial transformation in peri-urbanisation in Kumasi

Rapid urbanisation, characterised by population increase and spatial development, is pushing the frontiers of major African cities from old urban cores outward into peri-urban areas. A key outcome is the transitioning of land uses and variations to customary land rights. Yet, understandings of everyday transformational processes and driving forces in peri-urbanisation remain underexplored. This article, using a case study of a peri-urban area of Kumasi, Ghana’s second largest city, contributes to the body of literature on peri-urbanisation by: (i) analysing the spatio-temporal evolution of a peri-urban area; and (ii) examining key underpinning processes and patterns of peri-urban spatial change. Qualitative research methods involving interviews with traditional and local statutory authorities, and peri-urban developers, as well as map analysis, Landsat images, and photographs were used. Findings show rapid but unregulated spatial changes in peri-urban Kumasi, driven by increasing demand for land, land speculation, commodification, and infrastructure projects. Peri-urbanisation processes and patterns were shaped by multiple factors such as modernisation, urban restructuring, and individual home ownership aspirations. The process of spatial change assumed a linear and drastic permanent transition, producing less credence to intermediate and temporary land uses.

Making Industrial Pittsburgh Modern: Environment, Landscape, Transportation, Energy, and Planning

Making Industrial Pittsburgh Modern: Environment, Landscape, Transportation, Energy, and Planning

Intensified aridity over the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool controlled by ice-sheet expansion during the Last Glacial Maximum

The magnitude, direction and cause of precipitation changes across the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) remain elusive. In particular, it is still inconclusive whether tropical or extra-tropical factors controlled such precipitation changes. Determining the spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation in the IPWP during the LGM is a valid strategy to address this issue, but the existing precipitation records are dominantly from maritime continents and marginal seas, with few data from pelagic oceans. In order to fill this gap, we analyzed the oxygen isotopic compositions of single Ethmodiscus rex diatom frustules (δ18OE. rex) from a sediment core (WPD-03) consisting of laminated diatom mats (LDMs) in the eastern Philippine Sea (EPS). δ18OE. rex was controlled mainly by sea-surface salinity variation and, thus, can reflect open-ocean precipitation changes across the IPWP. Our precipitation proxy records, in combination with existing published data, reveal spatial patterns of precipitation change that indicate overall drying across the IPWP during the LGM. Based on a comparison of paleoclimatic records with modeling results, we propose that extra-tropical factors (ice-sheet size) controlled precipitation variability in the IPWP during the LGM through a combination of zonal shifts of ENSO and meridional migration of the ITCZ. Strong aridity during the LGM prevented formation of a subsurface barrier layer and, hence, allowed accessing of sufficient nutrients to surface waters, stimulating blooms of E. rex and subsequent formation of LDMs in the IPWP. These findings suggest an important role for high-latitude climate in the tropical hydrological cycle during the LGM.

Dynamics and attributions of ecosystem water yields in China from 2001 to 2020

• China’s ecosystem water yield (WYe) increased at a rare of 3.0 mm/yr during 2001 to 2020. • WYe in 61.5%/38.5% of China increased/decreased. • Changes in WYe in 43.6% of China’s regions are dominated by climate change. • Vegetation contributions to WYe changes were highly spatially heterogeneous. • Dominant factors of WYe changes in nine river basins in China were identified. China is plagued by water security and its associated environmental issues under climate change. Clarifying the spatial and temporal changing patterns of ecosystem water yield (WYe) and its driving factors is essential for optimizing climate-resilient development strategies and achieving sustainable development goals. However, the understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of WYe changes in China based on continuous time series and their dominant factors has been limited. This creates a challenge to accurately assess water resource dynamics and environmental sustainability under climate change. Therefore, this study explored WYe dynamic trends in China at the grid-scale from 2001 to 2020 based on water balance and remote-sensing datasets. The contribution and dominance of vegetation (leaf area index and net primary productivity), climate (temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and net radiation), and human activities, were examined. Results showed that WYe changes exhibited an overall increasing trend (3.0 mm/yr, p = 0.1) in China, with 61.5 % and 38.5 % of the regions showing increasing and decreasing trends, respectively. Climate change (dominant area share, 43.6 %) was the primary driver of WYe dynamics in China, followed by vegetation change (23.8 %) and human activities (21.5 %). The dominant driving factors contributing to WYe dynamics in nine river basins were temperature, net primary productivity, net radiation, and relative humidity. The results emphasize that the high spatial heterogeneity of climate-driven WYe changes may exacerbate regional inequalities in water resources. Future vegetation-driven climate intervention programs and ecological restoration should be implemented more cautiously, and regional adaptive programs must be considered to avoid worsening water scarcity further.

Evolution of freight spatial pattern of China's coastal ports facing the Polar Silk Road

The Polar Silk Road (PSR) opens up China's maritime trade route through the Arctic to Northwest Europe and influences the cargo transport pattern of China's coastal ports, resulting in changes in the freight spatial pattern of port system. This study uses Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis to predict and analyse the evolution of freight spatial pattern of China's coastal ports facing the PSR. Oil, liquefied natural gas, iron ore, coal, timber and container are selected as important cargos to be studied. Results show that the northern ports have higher attraction potential than the southern ports. All cargos facing the PSR show significant spatial agglomeration characteristics. The local spatial patterns of northern ports tend to change towards high values, whereas the southern ports are the opposite. The Bohai Rim and Yangtze River Delta have a certain hierarchical structure for the PSR. The gravity centre of China's coastal port system is in the northern area facing the PSR, where the comprehensive cargo convergence capacity of large ports in the Bohai Rim is stronger than that in other regions. The role orientation and development prospects of different port freight spaces are classified.

Changes in warehouse spatial patterns and rental prices: Are they related? Exploring the case of US metropolitan areas

In this paper, two hypotheses are explored linking urban characteristics to the spatial structure of warehouses: (i) the location of warehouses (central places or peripheral areas) is closely related to the land/rent values of these facilities; and (ii) logistics sprawl is higher in cities with a high differential between land/rent values in city centers and peripheral areas. For that, we have considered warehouse real estate and urban data for 46 United States metropolitan areas to analyze the urban spatial structure and the relationship among urban variables, warehouse location, and rental prices. We deliver an exploratory analysis among the 46 metropolitan areas. The main results are (i) it is essential to classify metropolitan portions of urban space into a typology to perform studies that consider different regions; (ii) warehouse location and rent prices are related to the concentration of urban activity; (iii) logistics sprawl is not significantly related to differential warehouse rental prices in the database that we explored.