Articles published on Spatial management
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- New
- Research Article
- 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107805
- Mar 1, 2026
- Marine environmental research
- Fannie W Shabangu
Sperm whale acoustic ecology around two sub-Antarctic islands.
- New
- Research Article
- 10.3389/fmars.2026.1769853
- Feb 27, 2026
- Frontiers in Marine Science
- Irini Tsikopoulou + 4 more
To inform ecosystem-based fisheries management in line with the EU legislation objectives for marine fisheries, we evaluated the ecological outcomes of alternative spatial management scenarios to fisheries that consider the ecological impact of bottom trawling on the benthic ecosystem in the Eastern Ionian Sea. Trawling intensity in terms of swept area ratio (SAR) and benthic community sensitivity were combined to estimate the relative benthic status (RBS). Then, five management scenarios were tested. The scenarios include four static closure scenarios (below 800 m, below 600 m, the least-trawled 10% of fishing grounds, and areas shallower than 150 m), where trawling is completely excluded without fishing effort redistribution, and one with a trawl ban in all marine protected areas, where fishing effort displacement is modelled dynamically. Baseline RBS was high (>0.9 on a scale of 0 to 1 where 1 is unaffected benthic community) in all habitats, reflecting relatively low benthic degradation due to bottom trawling. Excluding bottom trawling from areas shallower than 150 m in depth produced the greatest improvements, while thresholds at 600 or 800 m depth, and the closure of the 10% least-trawled grounds, had no significant effects on benthic ecological status. Closure of trawling in the marine protected areas produced mixed outcomes, with improvements in some habitats but localized declines due to displaced effort in others. Our study demonstrates the value of including benthic indicators in spatial management strategies to guide adaptive, evidence-based fisheries governance, balancing conservation objectives with socio-economic sustainability.
- New
- Research Article
- 10.4467/23921943rp.26.001.23277
- Feb 27, 2026
- Radca Prawny
- Krzysztof Gruszecki
The Act of July 7, 2023, amending the Act on Spatial Planning and Development and certain other acts (Journal of Laws 2023, item 1688) introduced the general municipal plan into the Polish spatial planning system. Pursuant to Article 13a(7) of the Act of March 27, 2003, on Spatial Planning and Development (Journal of Laws 2024, item 1130, as amended), these plans constitute acts of local law. Consequently, the solutions they establish will determine the entire spatial management process within a municipality. They will also be of significant importance for environmental protection, which cannot be effectively implemented in isolation from the spatial context in which the protected environmental components are located. An important role in this regard is played by the provisions of protection plans developed for national parks, landscape parks, and nature reserves – forms of nature protection referred to in Article 6 of the Act of April 16, 2004, on Nature Protection (Journal of Laws 2024, item 1478, as amended). Against this background, this article discusses the role of protection plans in the environmental protection system, their legal nature, and the manner in which the restrictions they impose should be incorporated into the development of general plans.
- New
- Research Article
- 10.3389/fbuil.2026.1764625
- Feb 17, 2026
- Frontiers in Built Environment
- Lingyu Xu + 1 more
Background Heritage corridors represent complex cultural landscapes shaped by the historical interplay between military defense and transportation connectivity. However, the synergistic mechanisms behind this interplay remain underexplored. Methods This study investigated these synergistic mechanisms by which military defense systems and transportation networks influenced the settlement spatial patterns within China’s heritage corridors, using the Guangou section of the Great Wall as a representative case. Through an interdisciplinary approach that integrated historical document analysis, field surveys, remote sensing interpretation, and historical GIS spatial analysis, we constructed a tripartite research framework of “element identification-spatial quantification-mechanism interpretation”. Specific analytical methods included: 1. Euclidean distance and viewshed analyses to assess the spatial control exerted by defense facilities; 2. Cost-path analysis and buffer zone analysis to reconstruct historical transportation networks; and 3. Spatial overlay and raster calculation to quantify defense-connectivity interactions. Results Our findings revealed that settlement evolution underwent three distinct historical phases. Prior to the Ming Dynasty, settlements exhibited a dispersed, “mountain-water adjacent” distribution. During the Ming period, four distinctive settlement types emerged: High Defense-High Connectivity (HDHC) pass-courier station complexes, High Defense-Low Connectivity (HDLC) frontier military zones, Low Defense-High Connectivity (LDHC) plain waterway settlements, and Low Defense-Low Connectivity (LDLC) remote mountainous enclaves. Among these, the Guangou axial zone demonstrated an optimal defense-connectivity synergy model. In the Qing Dynasty phase, spatial configurations transitioned from “defensive control” to “connectivity empowerment”, characterized by “linear bead-like” and “planar networked” distribution patterns. Conclusion This study innovatively proposed a theoretical framework and quantitative indicator system for “defense-connectivity” synergistic evolution. It developed a spatial analysis technical approach that integrated multi-source data fusion and multi-method integration, revealed the evolution patterns and mechanisms of different spatial types in the formation of heritage corridors, and established a spatial management methodology for the protection of linear cultural heritage. Our findings would not only deepen the understanding of the evolution patterns of defensive settlement systems, but also provide precise spatial management references for the “holistic protection” and “living inheritance” of the Great Wall National Cultural Park, offering a replicable analytical framework for global studies on similar heritage corridors.
- Research Article
- 10.3390/land15020315
- Feb 12, 2026
- Land
- Yilin Lin + 4 more
To address the persistent challenges of the “disconnect between macro-level spatial zoning and micro-level land allocation” and the paradox of “localized intensification accompanied by overall inefficiency” in territorial spatial governance, this study adopts a multi-scale coupling perspective to explore an optimized spatial pattern that promotes the coordinated development of production, living, and ecological functions (PLEFs), thereby enhancing the systematic and scientific basis of spatial governance. Taking the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration (CYUA) as a case study, a coupled optimization framework integrating macro-scale spatial zoning and micro-scale land allocation was established. First, using multi-period land use data (2000–2020) in conjunction with multi-source geographic and socio-economic datasets, the correspondence between land use types and PLEFs was constructed, and the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of these functions were systematically analyzed. Second, the GMOP-PLUS model was employed to simulate and optimize land use patterns for 2035 under multiple development scenarios, and dominant spatial types were further refined based on grid-scale spatial suitability evaluation results. Third, the NRCA model was applied to identify comparative functional advantages at the county level. These advantages were comprehensively integrated with the revised dominant spatial types following the principle of “seeking common ground while preserving differences,” ultimately enabling the delineation of optimized territorial spatial development zones. The results indicate the following: (1) Throughout the study period, ecological space remained the dominant land use type (exceeding 75%), although its proportion gradually declined. Living space expanded markedly, while the internal structure of production space shifted toward industrial and mining land uses. (2) The planning control scenario was identified as the most suitable development pathway, exhibiting a spatial configuration characterized by a “central core with stronger development in the southeast than in the northwest.” Under this scenario, production and living spaces continued to expand, whereas ecological space maintained its dominant status. (3) Spatial suitability evaluation revealed a high degree of functional compatibility across the study area (79.01%), with ecological suitability prevailing. The revised dominant spatial types were predominantly ecological (78.94%), forming a hierarchical structure described as a “living core–production composite ring–ecological periphery.” (4) By integrating dominant spatial types with comparative functional advantages, the study area was classified into five major categories of territorial spatial development zones, for which differentiated governance strategies were proposed. This study provides methodological insights and practical guidance for improving refined territorial spatial management and advancing regional sustainable development.
- Research Article
- 10.3390/fishes11020112
- Feb 11, 2026
- Fishes
- Murat Dağtekin
The whiting, Merlangius merlangus, is a key cold-temperate demersal species in the Black Sea, yet information on its essential habitats and demographic structure remains limited for effective regional management. This study combined fishery-independent bottom trawl surveys with in situ hydrographic observations to identify autumn hotspots of recruits and adults along the southern Black Sea and to assess their relationships with environmental gradients. A stratified random survey (10–125 m) was conducted in autumn 2024, with data collected from 66 hauls. The population showed a strong female bias, with females comprising 67.9% of individuals (F:M = 2.12:1), significantly deviating from a 1:1 sex ratio. Length–weight relationships indicated positive allometric growth in females (b = 3.16), isometric growth in males (b = 3.03), and overall positive allometry for the combined population (b = 3.15). The relative condition factor (Kn) was close to unity (1.01 ± 0.10), suggesting stable body condition during the survey period. Generalized Additive Models with a Tweedie distribution revealed that depth–temperature interactions were the primary drivers of distribution for both recruits and adults, explaining 74.7% and 69.5% of deviance, respectively. Recruits concentrated at 40–75 m within 10–15 °C, while adults extended beyond 100 m, associated with the upper Cold Intermediate Layer. These findings highlight hydrographically dynamic nursery and feeding habitats, underscoring the need for adaptive, habitat-based spatial management of this shared Black Sea stock.
- Research Article
- 10.1134/s1064229325603348
- Jan 30, 2026
- Eurasian Soil Science
- J Y Liu + 4 more
Optimizing Machine Learning Models with Multi-Source Variables for Soil Salinity Prediction in an Arid Oasis: Implications for Spatial Management
- Research Article
- 10.1111/ddi.70142
- Jan 29, 2026
- Diversity and Distributions
- Jordi Tablada + 3 more
ABSTRACT Aim A key element of the Global Biodiversity Framework Target 3 is ‘representativity’, which refers to the inclusion of the full range of existing ecosystems, ecological processes and regions within protected areas, with the aim of ensuring that the full spectrum of biodiversity is protected. Here we use the New Zealand Seafloor Community Classification (NZSCC), which depicts compositional turnover of 1716 taxa (demersal fish, reef fish, benthic invertebrates and macroalgae) classified in 75 groups representing seafloor communities, and the conservation planning software Zonation to explore how representativity of benthic communities could be enhanced across spatial management areas (including protected areas) in New Zealand's marine environment. Location New Zealand Exclusive Economic Zone. Methods 154 Spatial layers derived from the NZSSC depicting within‐ and between‐ group similarity/dissimilarity and taxonomic richness, representing beta and alpha diversity respectively, are used to explore scenarios to provide an optimal expansion of the current network of spatial management areas. Results Results indicate that a relatively small increase in spatial protection (1.5%) to the existing spatial management network can result in large increases in the representativity of all NZSCC groups, including 46 groups (out of 75) currently underrepresented. Main Conclusions The use of within‐ and between‐group similarity/dissimilarity is a significant improvement on spatial prioritisation processes that consider groups within benthic classifications to be homogenous. These results provide a solid base for informing the development of improved future protection measures within New Zealand that can meaningfully contribute to the representativity element of the Global Biodiversity Framework Target 3, and the approach presented here can be applied to other regions.
- Research Article
- 10.18623/rvd.v23.n3.4410
- Jan 29, 2026
- Veredas do Direito
- Martino Dwi Nugroho + 7 more
The development of community-based cultural tourism is a crucial strategy for sustainable urban development, particularly in a cultural city like Yogyakarta. This article aims to analyze the integration of Green and Blue Open Spaces with community-based urban creative spaces to support inclusive and sustainable cultural tourism. This study uses a qualitative approach with a case study method on the Sayidan Alley activity in Sayidan Village, Yogyakarta City. Data were obtained through field observations, documentation, and literature review. The analysis shows that the integration of open spaces with community-based creative activities can transform marginal areas into productive public spaces, strengthen local cultural identity, and encourage the growth of the community's creative economy. However, this study also identified conceptual and practical challenges, particularly related to the sustainability of spatial management, the potential for cultural commodification, and the risk of social exclusion if the tourism approach is too event- and visual-aesthetic-oriented. Therefore, this article emphasizes the importance of strengthening the role of the community as the primary actor, providing long-term institutional support, and policies that ensure spatial equity in the development of urban creative spaces. The integration of open spaces and creative spaces is positioned not only as a tourism instrument but also as a strategy for community empowerment and local cultural preservation.
- Research Article
- 10.1038/s41598-026-35910-x
- Jan 27, 2026
- Scientific reports
- Zhaotong Zhang + 4 more
The unbalanced development of production-living-ecological land (PLEL) on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains has led to a series of environmental and ecological problems. Clarifying the evolution of spatial and temporal patterns and driving mechanisms of the PLEL is highly important for promoting the optimization of land use functions and sustainable development in this region. Previous research has focused primarily on the area or probability of conversion between different types of PLEL, neglecting the overall structural characteristics of the PLEL system. It is difficult to quantify the connectivity and importance of each PLEL type within the entire PLEL system, making it challenging to identify key PLEL types. Furthermore, quantitative characterization of the PLEL system stability is lacking. Accordingly, in this paper, PLEL conversion networks were constructed on the basis of complex network theory, and the dynamic evolution of the PLEL was analyzed from a systemic and holistic perspective. Network metrics (weighted degree, integrated node centrality, and average path length) were calculated to identify key types of PLEL, analyze the main conversion processes of PLEL, and quantify the stability of the PLEL system. The results indicated that: (1) In the PLEL system, ecological land occupied a dominant position but gradually declined between 2000 and 2023. (2) The grassland ecological land, agricultural production land, and ranching production land all had high integrated node centrality and were identified as key types in the PLEL conversion network from 2000 to 2023. (3) The conversion of grassland ecological land, ecological accommodation land, and ranching production land into agricultural production land were the main process of PLEL conversion, with conversion ratios of 53%, 28%, and 16%, respectively. (4) The average path length of the PLEL conversion network from 2000 to 2023 was 1.153, indicating that the overall stability of the PLEL system was poor and that the conversion between PLEL types was easy. (5) The PLEL evolution was the combined result of natural, economic, and social factors. This study demonstrated that complex network models can effectively identify key regulatory land types within the PLEL system. Furthermore, the system's high instability serves as a warning that the current PLEL development model is unsustainable. This insight provides a crucial scientific basis for precise spatial management and ecological security safeguards on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains.
- Research Article
- 10.18623/rvd.v23.n2.4315
- Jan 20, 2026
- Veredas do Direito
- Didi Nursidi + 2 more
Inequality in coastal space utilization permits is a structural issue that directly impacts social justice and the sustainability of coastal area management. Although Indonesia has promoted the integration of land and sea spatial planning through the One Spatial Plan policy, coastal spatial licensing practices still show the dominance of well-capitalized actors and limited access for coastal communities, particularly traditional fishermen. This article aims to analyze the extent to which licensing policies for coastal space utilization reflect substantive justice using John Rawls' Theory of Justice approach. This research employs a normative juridical method with a legislative, conceptual, and policy analysis approach. The study results indicate that the coastal space permitting system in Indonesia tends to meet procedural justice but has not fully achieved substantive justice as intended by Rawls' principles of justice, particularly the difference principle and fair equality of opportunity. This article asserts that the One Spatial Plan policy has normative potential to address disparities in coastal spatial permits but requires policy design reform and legal affirmation favoring the most vulnerable groups to achieve substantive justice in coastal spatial management.
- Research Article
- 10.33920/sel-04-2601-02
- Jan 5, 2026
- Zemleustrojstvo, kadastr i monitoring zemel' (Land management, cadastre and land monitoring)
- T V Papaskiri
The article presents a comprehensive study of the theoretical, legal and institutional foundations of land management in Russia in the context of the preparation and discussion of the draft federal law «On Land Management» (revision 2025). The work is aimed at identifying the key problems of the current version of the draft law, assessing their impact on the public land management system and formulating scientifically sound proposals for finalizing the law. The purpose of the research is to substantiate the conceptual model of modern land management as a tool for spatial development based on the principles of scientific validity, digitalization and publicity. The methodological basis consists of methods of comparative legal, systemic, institutional and historical-legal analysis. The study uses the regulations of the Russian Federation, the legislation of the EAEU and EU member states, as well as international standards for land management and cadastral data (ISO 19152:2012, INSPIRE Directive 2007/2/EC). As a result of the analysis of the historical development of the Institute of Land Management (XIX–XXI centuries), four key stages have been identified: the Zemstvo and Stolypin system (before 1917); the Soviet planning and state model (1917-1991); the post-Soviet transition to the cadastral approach (1991-2000); and the modern digital stage (2001-2025). The author emphasizes that each of these stages contributed to the formation of the national school of land management, but the current stage is characterized by institutional fragmentation and regulatory uncertainty. A comparative legal analysis of foreign land management systems has been carried out: Germany and the EU countries demonstrate legal decentralization, public participation and integration of land management with cadastral and urban planning systems; China is an example of a centralized digital model combining land management, ecology and industrial planning; Kazakhstan implements a mixed system, preserving the Soviet heritage and introducing digital cadastral technologies; Belarus represents a unique post-Soviet model with full integration of cadastre and land management under the auspices of the State Property Committee, which ensures sustainability, transparency and completeness of coverage of the territory. The key problems of the draft law of 2025 have been identified: the uncertainty of the conceptual framework, the lack of a coordinating body, duplication of functions, insufficient digitalization and a weak legal framework for control. A system of more than 65 amendments has been proposed, grouped into five functional blocks: regulatory and terminological — the introduction of clear definitions and principles; organizational and managerial — the creation of a federal coordinator and accreditation of performers; documentation — a three — level system of land management documents; regulatory and legal — the formation of supervision and responsibility; financial and economic — a three — level financing model and a transitional period. The necessity of adopting a new version of the law «On Land Management» as a system act of spatial management, ensuring the interface of land, urban planning and environmental legislation, is substantiated. Special attention is paid to the creation of the Federal State Geographic Information System for Land Management (FGIS-ZU), a digital platform that combines all land management, cadastral and territorial data, similar to the Belarusian «Electronic Land Map».
- Research Article
- 10.3390/arts15010010
- Jan 3, 2026
- Arts
- Aya Motegi
How does digital technology mediate decision-making and shape our understanding of disaster recovery? I address this question by examining both the administrative and cinematic uses of digital images in the reconstruction process following the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. Post-disaster digital mediation is characterized by the administrative use of what has been termed “operational images,” designed not for interpretation but for action, particularly in disaster response and prevention. I connect the social and ethical dimensions of post-disaster recovery with the ontological dimensions of the technological characteristics of digital photography. By comparing Japanese independent filmmaker Haruka Komori’s digital filmmaking practice with the operational images utilized by administrative and research bodies, I aim to demonstrate how her particular digital aesthetics elicit the latent capacity of the “digital unconscious” and offer new modes of perceiving post-disaster recovery, in contrast to both other forms of post-disaster digital mediation and to analog photography. Through close analyses, I argue that her work articulates an alternative vision of recovery—one rooted not in spatial management or predictive planning, but in physical attachment to place, trust in the future, and imaginative engagement with survivors and the dead.
- Research Article
- 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.128188
- Jan 1, 2026
- Journal of environmental management
- Chuyu Cheng + 9 more
Assessment of seabird vulnerability to offshore wind farms in China.
- Research Article
- 10.1051/bioconf/202621606002
- Jan 1, 2026
- BIO Web of Conferences
- Muhammad Nabil Hadjoe + 3 more
Surabaya, the largest metropolitan city in East Java Province, has experienced rapid urban growth driven by population increase, economic development, and migration from surrounding regions. This growth has accelerated the expansion of built-up areas, particularly in suburban zones that were previously dominated by productive land such as rice fields and forests. These land use changes present significant challenges for sustainable urban spatial management, highlighting the need for efficient and reliable monitoring techniques. This study employs Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) based remote sensing, which enables consistent data acquisition regardless of weather conditions or illumination. ALOS PALSAR-2 Single Look Complex (SLC) data were utilized and analyzed using the SAR-based Impervious Built-up Index (IBUIsar) method to identify and map built-up areas based on backscatter characteristics. The application of the IBUIsar method aims to produce an accurate spatial distribution map of built-up land in Surabaya. The results indicate that higher IBUIsar values are concentrated in the city center and areas with intensive development activities. This information is expected to support urban spatial planning and contribute to sustainable urban development strategies.
- Research Article
- 10.31548/zemleustriy2025.04.09
- Dec 30, 2025
- Zemleustrìj kadastr ì monìtorìng zemelʹ
- Ye Dorozhko + 1 more
The article is devoted to the intellectualization of electronic geodetic instruments (EGI) and the development of conceptual foundations for integrating artificial intelligence (AI) technologies into the geoinformation environment (GIS) to enhance the efficiency of spatial management systems. The study presents a developed architectural model of an intelligent spatial management system, which includes the interaction of electronic instruments, sensor modules, GIS platforms, and analytical AI services. The proposed concept of EGI intellectualization is based on three main vectors: autonomy of the measurement process (through machine learning, ML, for object recognition and self-diagnostics), adaptability to environmental conditions (via environmental impact correction and noise reduction), and integrativity with GIS. The research describes the use of AI methods, including deep neural networks (YOLO, Mask R-CNN, U-Net, PointNet) for automatic detection and classification of objects in images and point clouds, as well as for real-time evaluation and correction of GNSS errors using neuro-Kalman filters. The practical directions of model implementation include automated monitoring of engineering structure deformations and intelligent UAV data processing for updating topographic maps. According to the findings, the phased integration of AI transforms EGI into intelligent sensors capable of autonomously assessing data quality and interacting with GIS, thereby providing a reliable foundation for smart cities and sustainable territorial development.
- Research Article
- 10.31548/zemleustriy2025.04.07
- Dec 30, 2025
- Zemleustrìj kadastr ì monìtorìng zemelʹ
- O Malashchuk + 2 more
The article explores the issue of intellectualisation of electronic geodetic instruments in the context of spatial management systems, emphasising the transformation from automated procedures to adaptive self-learning technological solutions with the integration of digital ethics principles. An algorithmic analysis is implemented using the extended Kalman filter (EKF) and recurrent Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network architectures for adaptive filtering of information flows, as well as geospatial statistics and GIS visualisation methods for verifying coordinate consistency. The obtained scientific results indicate that intellectualisation determines the transformation to cognitive systems with sensor integration (GNSS, IMU, EDM), achieving millimetre accuracy using artificial intelligence algorithms – particularly EKF and LSTM –for predictive modelling of errors and auto-correction. It was established that cloud infrastructure and interoperability with GIS platforms (ArcGIS, QGIS) form a unified digital environment with data validation mechanisms, which increases metrological stability and ethical accountability of systems.The practical significance of the study is determined by the improvement of public administration systems, in particular urban planning, land cadastral accounting and infrastructure monitoring, where intelligent devices provide real-time data updates and preventive risk management. The study contributes to increasing the transparency of state registers through digital measurement passports, reducing errors and legal conflicts in the geoinformation environment. Prospects for further scientific exploration include the development of ethical standards for artificial intelligence in geodesy and integration with Internet of Things (IoT) technologies to establish global monitoring networks.
- Research Article
- 10.14746/quageo-2026-0004
- Dec 29, 2025
- Quaestiones Geographicae
- Jan M Waga + 7 more
Undiscovered military explosives pose a social and environmental burden in every war-affected country. Until recently, the methods and techniques for detecting such ordnance were limited, leaving areas vulnerable to possible fatal accidents and consecutive environmental pollution. To avoid such consequences, effective detection of unexploded ordnance (UXO) is necessary, especially in areas with intensive economic activity. This study aims to develop a viable solution for UXO detection by utilizing a range of currently available methods in various environmental conditions. Such conditions were met in the study area of the Koźle Basin (Poland, Central Europe), which was affected by massive Allied strategic bombing in 1944. It is estimated that the area contains 4,000 to 6,000 pieces of UXO. In addition, the study area has diverse environmental conditions, including dry, wet, and swampy areas, as well as various types of land cover. During the two years, the respective study sites were explored using ground penetrating radar, proton magnetometry, magnetic anomaly detection, electrical conductometry, and electrical resistivity tomography. Based on the field surveys and data analysis, we conclude that the use of conductivity meters that can be easily operated on site (especially the CMD-Explorer, which indicates the depth range of potential UXBs in addition to their location on the map) yielded very good results. The ground penetrometer radar (GPR) and the electrical resistivity method were found to be more demanding at the stage of the measurement preparation phase, both proved to be effective. The ferromagnetic characteristics of the finds were confirmed with a proton magnetometer, which was also used for preliminary field prospecting.
- Research Article
- 10.3390/land15010041
- Dec 24, 2025
- Land
- Sanja Hajdinjak + 2 more
Existing research on tourism spatial planning primarily focuses on different political and economic systems (PESs)—but most often within capitalist democracies. However, there is a lack of research examining how frequent changes in PESs (capitalism, socialism and recapitalism) act as critical points, as they affect tourism spatial planning legislation, land use and spatial management. By analysing the spatiotemporal evolution of the Kupari tourist zone in Croatia (1880–2024), we investigate how PES changes act as critical turning points that shape tourism spatial planning and administrative practices. Key results reveal that tourism recovery and resilience are closely linked to the stability of PESs. Frequent PES changes (1) reduce the overall resilience of tourism and its institutions, (2) lead to recurring changes in tourism spatial planning legislation (e.g., ownership and land use) and (3) disrupt the positive correlation between space and tourism development. Frequent changes in PESs are reflected in legislation, as well as in challenges of compromise for issues closely related to tourism and spatial management. Only a stable PES can enable continuous monitoring of legislation and its spatial consequences in real time. An integrated methodology for monitoring legislation, together with a framework for spatial management, offers practical solutions for the sustainable management of tourist areas. These findings provide both scientific evidence and practical strategies for better harmonization of legislation with the resilience of tourism spatial planning on the eastern coast of the Adriatic Sea.
- Research Article
- 10.1080/08898480.2025.2601595
- Dec 24, 2025
- Mathematical Population Studies
- Suzana Lović Obradović + 2 more
ABSTRACT Due to various demographic, socio-economic, and environmental factors, population fluctuations occur across different spatial scales. Understanding these changes is crucial for effective spatial management. For decades, demographers have used population forecasting techniques to improve comprehension and enhance management strategies. However, traditional models have often neglected the spatial dimension of population dynamics. An innovative GIS-based modeling framework integrating the Space-Time Pattern Mining (STPM) tool with extrapolative forecasting techniques is introduced to generate short-term, municipal-level population forecasts for Serbia by 2037. Using historical population data from 1991 to 2022, three forecasting models (Curve Fit, Exponential Smoothing, and Forest-based) are employed to forecast population trends over a 15-year period (2023–2037). The most accurate model for each municipality is identified using the Evaluating Forecasts by Location method. The results indicate that Serbia will experience further population decline, characterized by a decrease in medium- and large-sized municipalities and a simultaneous increase in small-sized ones, continuing the long-term depopulation trend. The proposed framework demonstrates the potential of geospatial analyses to enhance demographic forecasting by combining spatial and temporal dimensions within a unified analytical structure.