Spatial Distribution Of Risk Research Articles

Environmental justice and hazmat transport: A spatial analysis in southern California

This paper explores whether the risk of a toxic release during transport is greater in poor and minority neighborhoods using a combination of mapping and statistical methods. Cluster analysis is used to examine the density of facilities and transport spill events as well as test for the spatial covariance between facilities and spills. Strong clustering of transport spills is evident, as well as clustering between factory sites and transport spills. A spatial model demonstrates raised rates of transport spills surrounding clusters of toxic firms. Most spills in Los Angeles occurred within 2 km of an intermodal facility. The last step of the analysis compares risk and facility clustering between neighborhoods and socio-economic groups, finding that hazmat spills during transport disproportionately occur in Latino neighborhoods in Los Angeles. The results clarify the spatial distribution of risk and nuisance from freight in urban landscapes.

Phlebotominae spatial distribution asssociated with a focus of tegumentary leishmaniasis in Las Lomitas, Formosa, Argentina, 2002

Las Lomitas, Formosa, Argentina, reported 96 cases of tegumentary leishmaniasis during 2002. The urban transmission was suggested although previous outbreaks were related with floods of the Bermejo river (BR) 50 km from the village. Phlebotomine collections were performed during March 2002 to define the spatial distribution of risk, together with satellite imaginery. The phlebotomine/trap obtained was 1679.5 in the southern BR shore, 1.1 in the periruban-rural environment and 2.3 in the northern Pilcomayo river marshes. Lutzomyia neivai was the prevalent species (91.1%) among the 2393 phlebotomine captured, and it was only found in the BR traps. The other species were L. migonei (7.9%), L. cortelezzii (0.9%), and Brumptomyia guimaraesi (0.1%). The satellite images analysis indicates that the fishing spots at the BR were significantly overflowed during the transmission peak, consistent with fishermen recollections. This spatial restricted flood might concentrate vectors, reservoirs, and humans in high places. Therefore, both the spatial distribution of vectors and the sensor remoting data suggests that in Las Lomitas area the higher transmission risk it is still related with the gallery forest of the BR, despite of the urban residence of the cases. The surveillance and control implications of these results are discussed.

Situating local experience of risk: Peripherality, marginality and place identity in the UK foot and mouth disease crisis

Research into exposure to, and experience of, environmental risk that has an explicitly spatial focus can be broadly differentiated into two strands. The first strand focuses on the responses of communities of exposure (or the threat of exposure) to some form of environmental hazard and to the policies put in place by institutional actors to manage the hazard. The second strand addresses social inequalities in exposure to environmental hazards and seeks to correlate uneven spatial distributions of risk across different social groups. It is argued that both strands are limited by their respective understandings of space – and that the way in which vulnerable communities experience environmental risk and its management will be shaped significantly by the complex interactions of different spatialisations or constructions of space. We explore this process by examining accounts of local experience of the UK’s 2001 foot and mouth disease crisis and its management in terms of the interplay of two different spatialisations: socio-cultural marginality and political–economic peripherality. We trace the relationship between these cultural and political–economic spatialisations through an analysis of the discursive mobilisation of contrasting place rhetorics. We conclude that focusing on these rhetorics can enhance our understanding of the spatial processes which are constitutive of place identity and in turn mediate the experience of environmental risk and its management.

The influence of hazard models on GIS-based regional risk assessments and mitigation policies

Geographic information systems (GIS) are important tools for understanding and communicating the spatial distribution of risks associated with natural hazards in regional economies. We present a GIS-based decision support system (DSS) for assessing community vulnerability to natural hazards and evaluating potential mitigation policy outcomes. The Land Use Portfolio Modeler (LUPM) integrates earth science and socioeconomic information to predict the economic impacts of loss-reduction strategies. However, the potential use of such systems in decision making may be limited when multiple but conflicting interpretations of the hazard are available. To explore this problem, we conduct a policy comparison using the LUPM to test the sensitivity of three available assessments of earthquake-induced lateral-spread ground failure susceptibility in a coastal California community. We find that the uncertainty regarding the interpretation of the science inputs can influence the development and implementation of natural hazard management policies.

A spatially-evaluated methodology for assessing risk to a population from contaminated land

A methodology is proposed which combines quantitative probabilistic human health risk assessment and spatial statistical methods (geostatistics) to produce an assessment of risks to human health from exposure to contaminated land, in a manner which preserves the spatial distribution of risks and provides a measure of uncertainty in the assessment. Maps of soil contaminant levels, which incorporate uncertainty, are produced from sparse sample data using sequential indicator simulation. A real, age-stratified population is mapped across the contaminated area, and intake of soil contaminants by individuals is calculated probabilistically using an adaptation of the Contaminated Land Exposure Assessment (CLEA) model. An abundance of information is contained in results which can be interrogated at the population and individual level, and mapped to provide a powerful visual tool for risk managers, enabling efficient targeting of risk reduction measures to different locations.

USE OF TRACK PLATES TO QUANTIFY PREDATION RISK AT SMALL SPATIAL SCALES

Spatial heterogeneity in risk is a critical component of predator-prey interactions. However, at small spatial scales, it is difficult to quantify predation risk without altering it. We used track plates to measure local predation risk created by white-footed mouse (Peromyscus leucopus) foraging activity on oak-forest plots in Millbrook, New York. Live gypsy moth pupae (Lymantria dispar) were placed at 2 heights on trees and monitored for predation. Pupae deployed on trees visited by mice were more likely to be eaten than those on trees not visited. Logistic regression indicated that predation rates on gypsy moth pupae were positively correlated with track activity, indicating that areas of concentrated mouse activity were areas of heightened risk for gypsy moths. Survival of individual oat grains placed on and 50 cm from track plates were not statistically different, indicating that mice exhibited no detectable behavioral reaction toward track plates. We conclude that track plates offer an economical and reliable means of quantifying local risk of attack by terrestrial mammals without substantially altering the spatial distribution of risk.

SPATIAL PATTERN OF RISK OF COMMON RAVEN PREDATION ON DESERT TORTOISES

Common Ravens (Corvus corax) in the Mojave Desert of California, USA are subsidized by anthropogenic resources. Large numbers of nonbreeding ravens are attracted to human developments and thus are spatially restricted, whereas breeding ravens are distributed more evenly throughout the area. We investigated whether the spatial distribution of risk of predation by ravens to juveniles of the threatened desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) was determined by the spatial distribution of (1) nonbreeding ravens at human developments (leading to “spillover” predation) or (2) breeding individuals throughout developed and undeveloped areas (leading to “hyperpredation”). Predation risk, measured using styrofoam models of juvenile desert tortoises, was high near places attracting large numbers of nonbreeding ravens, near successful nests, and far from successful nests when large numbers of nonbreeding ravens were present. Patterns consistent with both “spillover” predation and “hyperpredation” were thus observed, attributed to the nonbreeding and breeding segments of the population, respectively. Furthermore, because locations of successful nests changed almost annually, consistent low-predation refugia for juvenile desert tortoises were nearly nonexistent. Consequently, anthropogenic resources for ravens could indirectly lead to the suppression, decline, or even extinction of desert tortoise populations.

A Critical Realist Perspective on Urban Environmental Risk: A case study of an informal settlement in South Africa

This paper uses a critical realist framework to analyse environmental risk in a local space. It argues that urban risk needs to be understood in terms of the causal mechanisms that shape risk events and the contingent conditions that provide the context within which they occur. It uses a case study of an informal settlement in Hout Bay, South Africa, to explore these ideas. It is an approach that challenges the dominant technical and scientific discourse that usually determines the understanding of risk. The research suggests that the key causal mechanisms that shape risk events in informal settlements are globalisation and urbanisation, poverty and vulnerability, the social construction of environmental problems, gender relations, the rise of civil society organisations, political governance and the spatial distribution of risk. The environmental characteristics of the site, as well as the development of the settlement during the political transformation in South Africa, are the key contingent conditions determining the nature of risk.

Coverage plots for assessing the variability of estimated contours of a density

Methods for assessing the variability of an estimated contour of a density are discussed. A new method called the coverage plot is proposed. Techniques including sectioning and bootstrap techniques are compared for a particular problem which arises in Monte Carlo simulation approaches to estimating the spatial distribution of risk in the operation of weapons firing ranges. It is found that, for computational reasons, the sectioning procedure outperforms the bootstrap for this problem. The roles of bias and sample size are also seen in the examples shown.

Disaster Planning: A Synopsis

Abstract As losses from man-made and natural disasters have increased, so too has the demand for greater safety. In the last twenty years, this growing public pressure has been associated with fundamental changes in the nature of hazard-related research. A more broadly based interdisciplinary approach has developed which is seeking to minimize disaster losses. Rather than focusing in great detail on the nature of the hazards themselves, emphasis has been placed on how individuals and society respond to risk and its associated disasters. This research has demonstrated that if losses are to be significantly reduced, a series of disaster planning activities must be widely implemented at the municipal level. The spatial distribution of risk must be established, for example, and used as a basis for planning land use. Greater cognizance must be paid to the improvement of safety through the better design of buildings and infrastructure. In addition, communities must simulate disasters and practice their strategi...