Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Model Research Articles

Ex-post Evaluation Method of Prediction of Transportation Demand by SCGE Model

It has become common to use a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for evaluation of transportation investment, recently. In this study, we apply Dynamic Spatial CGE model to the prediction of transportation demand. SCGE model has some advantages to use for the prediction of transportation demand compared to using four-step method. Firstly, we summarize the advantage of SCGE model from ex-post evaluation point of view and propose a methodology for ex-post evaluation of the prediction of transportation demand. And, we apply this method to estimate the transportation demand in Japan.

Regional Propagation of the Local Social Capital Investment

Recently, society needs more efficient public investment because of the financial difficulty of central and local government. Beside, regional economies through the interregional trade are connecting each other more strongly. To make a plan of the efficient public investment, planner should understand quantitative effect from the regional social capital investment. In this study, we analyze the regional propagation of the social capital investment by spatial computable general equilibrium model. In this analysis, we suppose 3 cases about contribution to Total Factor Productivity of social capital stock and estimate production functions in each case.

A Framework of Measuring Economic Losses from the Niigata-Chuetsu Earthquake

This paper aims at presenting a framework of assessing economic impact from catastrophic earthquake disasters, and at applying for the Niigata-Chuetsu earthquake in 2004 as a case study. A spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) model is formulated which is integrated with a transportation model, which can consider estimate traffic volumes of freight and passenger's trips. Considering damage to production capital and transportation infrastructure, it shows how much economic losses arrive at each region through intra- and inter-regional trade in regional economy from the earthquake.

Market imperfections in a spatial economy: some experimental results

This paper offers some preliminary steps in the marriage of some of the theoretical foundations of the new economic geography with spatial computable general equilibrium models. Modeling the spatial economy of Brazil using the usual assumptions of CGE models makes little sense when one state, São Paulo, accounts for 40% of GDP and where transportation costs are high and accessibility low compared to European or North American standards. Hence, handling market imperfections becomes imperative as does the need to address internal spatial issues from the perspective of Brazil's increasing involvement with external markets such as MERCOSUL, EU, NAFTA. The paper builds on the B-MARIA-27, a multiregional CGE model of the Brazilian economy; non-constant returns and non-iceberg transportation costs are introduced and some simulation exercises carried out. The results, limited in this paper to short-run considerations, confirm the asymmetric impacts that transportation investment has on a spatial economy in which one state (São Paulo) is able to more fully exploit scale economies vis a vis the rest of Brazil. The analysis also reveals the importance of parameter estimation in handling imperfectly competitive markets.

APPLICATION TO THE DEVELOPING COUNTRY OF SCGE MODEL BASED ON 2-REGIONAL SAM

Recently, developing countries have gradually been achieving economic development, at the cost of regional income disparity between urban and rural areas. One factor contributing to this is excess of transport infrastructure investment in central area and concomitant inefficiency of inter-regional trade due to high transport costs. In these countries, decision making on project implementation should be based not only on social efficiency from a macro point of view but also on the micro-economic effects felt by every region and every household. A spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) model, which uses Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) with two regions and two household-income levels as the database, is built to estimate the benefit of each region and household level from traffic infrastructure investment. Results show that traffic infrastructure investment in urban centers causes negative benefit in rural areas and induces further widening of the regional income gap.

ESTIMATION OF THE ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF PORT DEVELOPMENT ON INTERNATIONAL MARITIME MARKET BY PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL AND SCGE MODEL

In this research, we propose a partial equilibrium model that can measure the economic benefit of port development in Japan, and estimate the parameters of the demand and supply function concerning the long-distance container transportation market (i.e. North America Pacific Coast route, North America East Coast route and European route) which arrive at and depart from Japan. Then we evaluate the effectiveness of the investment for port development up to now with this model. As a result, we would conclude that port development in Japan has been effective in general. We also examine spatial incidence or distribution of economic benefits measured by the above-mentioned partial equilibrium model with simplified international Spatial Computable General Equilibrium (SCGE) model, including international induced effects. The results also show that port development in Japan can bring a certain degree of benefit to any regions in the world through the trades.

PUBLIC MANAGEMENT ON TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE AGAINST EARTHQUAKE RISK—BY SCGE MODEL

本論文では, 空間的応用一般均衡モデルを用いて地域間の物資・旅客流動や産業連関を考慮した地域経済のモデル化を行い, 交通施設の機能損傷に起因する経済被害の空間的帰着構造を分析する枠組みについて述べる. 次いで, この枠組みを用いて, 東海地震の警戒宣言発令時や東海地震発生時における基幹交通網の機能低下の影響や, ネットワーク整備などの被害軽減施策の効果を定量的に評価する. また, 構築したモデルをベースとした巨大地震リスクのマネジメントのあり方について検討する.

SCGE model for passenger transport improvement

The spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) models which are the extended CGE model, have been applied in order to estimate the spatial and economic impacts of transport policies. However, these model are developed for only freight transport improvement. Because, theoretical background of these models is based on spatial price equilibrium theory. So, the purpose of this study is development of a SCGE model for passenger transport improvement and applied this model for evaluation of Japanese new-Shinkansen project.

Operational spatial computable general equilibrium modeling

A prototype spatial computable general equilibrium model is developed and illustrated by a numerical example. The theoretical basis is a complete Arrow-Debreu equilibrium under perfect competition. The leading principle of model design is parsimony: The specification restricts the number of parameters in a way allowing for a model calibration relying on a limited data base, which is readily available in a country with a well developed statistical service. No “data generating” first stage, using entropy maximisation or other methods not in line with the philosophy of microeconomic equilibrium analysis, is required.

How would an EU-membership of the Visegrád- countries affect Europe's economic geography?EU-membership of the Visegrád-countries

The question posed in the title of the paper is answered by simulating EU-integration of the Visegrad-countries by a spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) model. A two-sector model is calibrated for a system of almost 100 regions covering the whole area of Europe and a rest of world region. The sectors are a local sector, producing non-tradables under perfect competition, and a tradables sector, producing a large number of tradable varieties under monopolistic competition. Trade between regions is costly, with costs depending on geographic distance and national impediments to trade. The model is calibrated such that the equilibrium solution reproduces benchmark data about international trade and regional incomes. Economic integration is simulated by reducing impediments to trade between integrating countries and calculating a new counterfactual equilibrium.

Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Aproach to Generalized Land Use/Transportation Modeling

The purpose of this paper is to propose a comprehensive regional planning model in which a land use/transportation model is incorporated into a Spatial Computable General Equilibrium (SCGE) model in a consistent way, thereby it provides a Generalized Land Use/Transportation Equilibrium (GLUTE) model that enable us to predict not only the intensity of land use of each region, interregional transport demands including both passenger and freight and network flows within the general equilibrium framework. GLUTE model may be useful to provide numerical guidance to policy makers on the economic impacts of alternative options concerned with the infrastructure planning. The formulation of the model is structured in the way that a Newton-Raphson method can be used in the processes of equilibrating prices.

US National wild and scenic rivers system

The city of São Paulo, home to 11 million people, suffers constantly the effects of flooding caused by extreme precipitation. Localized floods occur every summer in various parts of the city. Besides the losses and inconvenience felt by the residents, floods produce damages that cross the city boundaries, affecting income and output in the metropolitan area as well as in other parts of the state and the country. The objective of this study is to evaluate the economic impacts of floods in the city of São Paulo through the use of a Spatial Computable General Equilibrium (SCGE) model integrated to GIS information related to the location of points of floods and the firms within their influence. It is estimated that floods contributed to reduce city growth and residents' welfare, as well as hampering local competitiveness in both domestic and international markets. An intra-city total impact-damage ratio of 2.2 and an economy-wide total impact-damage ratio of 5.0 were found.

Utilization of the peat bogs of Canada

The use of spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) models for assessing the economic impacts of transport projects is one of the key items on the research agenda for project appraisal in the Netherlands. These models are particularly suitable for analysing indirect effects of transport projects through linkages between the transport sector and the wider economy. Potentially, according to the literature, indirect effects that are additional to first-order direct cost reductions can turn out to be up to almost 80% in magnitude of the direct impacts. Given the relevance of these models for policy appraisal, experiences with this new modelling approach are important to report. After two years of development and application of SCGE models for transport appraisal, we found that the translation of theory behind the spatial equilibrium models into practical model specifications and empirical applications is a challenging task, and may lead to problems in project appraisal in terms of inaccuracies in the assessment of impacts. This paper discusses some key challenges we encountered with the specification of the Dutch SCGE model RAEM. This chapter is especially useful for researchers developing SCGE applications for use in transport appraisal and those who want to get a better understanding of differences between theoretical and computable SCGE modelling.