Southward Shift Research Articles

Impact of Time Scales on North Pacific Surface Turbulent Heat Fluxes Driven by ENSO

AbstractENSO's atmospheric teleconnections drive anomalous North Pacific sea surface temperatures through changes in surface heat fluxes (“the atmospheric bridge”). Previous research focusing on the bridge as a seasonal phenomenon did not consider how ENSO‐related changes in synoptic variability might also impact surface turbulent heat fluxes (STHF). In this study, we find that while well over half of ENSO's impact on STHF occurs on low‐frequency (>8 days) time scales, up to 20% of its impact arises on high‐frequency (<8 days) time scales, through changes in the covariance between surface wind speed and air‐sea enthalpy difference that typically warms the ocean south of the storm track. During El Niño, the North Pacific storm track and its attendant sea surface warming shift southward, reducing warming of the central North Pacific ocean and thereby enhancing the bridge signal there. Additionally, changes in the bulk formula coefficients between ENSO phases drive STHF differences (5%–10%).

Larval dispersal and climate models provide insights into present and future distribution of a tropical sardine

ABSTRACT Climate change impacts the distribution of marine organisms and threatens fisheries. Marine protected areas (MPAs) may buffer the detrimental effects of environmental change by acting as biodiversity spillover to neighboring areas. Yet, it is uncertain whether MPAs on islands favor passive dispersal of species through oceanic currents, and how fish abundance and distribution will be impacted by ongoing global warming. Using the Brazilian-endemic scaled-sardines (Harengula sp.) as model, we implemented a Lagrangian particle-tracking model to estimate dispersal in the Brazilian coast and four MPAs in islands. Then, we projected an ecological niche model (ENM) of Harengula sp. to three climatic scenarios in 2100. Dispersal models suggested that three MPAs in islands export eggs and larvae acting as source of biomass to the coast. ENMs indicated a decrease in environmental suitability for Harengula sp. at the Equatorial Brazilian coast and a southward shift that increases as the climatic scenario is aggravated. Ocean warming may lead to a decrease in suitability for Harengula sp. in the northernmost part of its current distribution concomitant with an increase in offshore zones in the south of its current distribution. Ecosystem disturbance with environmental suitability shifts can aggravate the isolation of populations in islands.

Intrinsic Versus Wind‐Forced Great Whirl Non‐Seasonal Variability

AbstractThe Great Whirl (GW) is a quasi‐permanent anticyclonic eddy that appears every summer monsoon offshore of the Somalia upwelling. The annual cycle of the GW is well described, but deviations from its mean seasonal cycle (hereafter non‐seasonal variability) have been less explored. Satellite observations reveal that the leading mode of summer non‐seasonal sea‐level variability in this region is associated with ∼100‐km northward or southward GW shifts from its climatological position. Northward shifts are associated with a stronger GW, and two cold, productive coastal upwelling wedges at 5°N and 10°N. Southward shifts are associated with a weaker GW, no wedge at 5°N and a single stronger‐than‐usual cold and productive wedge at 10°N. An eddy‐permitting (25‐km resolution) 50‐member ensemble ocean simulation reproduces this GW variability well. It indicates that the non‐seasonal GW variability has a short ∼20 days timescale intrinsic component, associated with the GW interaction with mesoscale eddies, and a lower‐frequency, ∼100 days externally forced component. Intrinsic variability dominates at both subseasonal (two thirds of the variance) and interannual timescales (57% of the variance). The externally forced signal results from shifts in the probability distribution of the subseasonal GW position (e.g., more likely northward than southward shifted instantaneous GW positions over a season). The mechanism for this external forcing is not entirely clear, but it appears to be related to the Rossby wave response to offshore wind stress curl forcing, which evolves into a north‐south dipole that projects onto the GW variability pattern.

Asian Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing Played a Key Role in the Multidecadal Increase in Australian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

Abstract Observations show a significant increase in Australian summer monsoon (AUSM) rainfall since the mid-twentieth century. Yet the drivers of this trend, including the role of anthropogenic aerosols, remain uncertain. We addressed this knowledge gap using historical simulations from a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models, the CESM2 Large Ensemble, and idealized single-forcing simulations from the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). Our results suggest that Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions played a key role in the observed increase in AUSM rainfall from 1930 to 2014, alongside the influence of internal variability. Sulfate aerosol emissions over Asia led to regional surface cooling and strengthening of the climatological Siberian high over eastern China, which altered the meridional temperature and sea level pressure gradients across the Indian Ocean. This caused an intensification and southward shift of the Australian monsoonal westerlies (and the local Hadley cell) and resulted in a precipitation increase over northern Australia. Conversely, the influence of increased greenhouse gas concentrations on AUSM rainfall was minimal due to the compensation between thermodynamically induced wettening and transient eddy-induced drying trends. At a larger scale, aerosol and greenhouse gas forcing played a key role in the climate response over the Indo-Pacific sector and eastern equatorial Pacific, respectively (coined the “tropical Pacific east–west divide”). These findings contribute to an improved understanding of the drivers of the multidecadal trend in AUSM rainfall and highlight the need to reduce uncertainties in future projections under different aerosol emission trajectories, which is particularly important for northern Australia’s agriculture. Significance Statement Australian summer monsoon (AUSM) rainfall plays a vital role in sustaining northern Australia’s unique biodiversity and extensive agricultural industry. While observations show a significant increase in AUSM rainfall since the mid-twentieth century, the causes remain uncertain. We find that anthropogenic aerosol emissions from Asia played a key role in driving this multidecadal AUSM rainfall trend by inducing dynamic adjustments over the Indo-Pacific sector. These findings highlight the need to consider different aerosol emission trajectories when assessing future projections of AUSM rainfall.

A Diagnostic Study on a Southward Southwest Vortex Track Forecasted by CMA-GFS: The Role of Initial Field

Abstract It is known that the southwest vortex (SWV) is an important weather system that may induce severe weather. The southward deviation of an SWV track forecasted by the Global Assimilation and Prediction System of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA-GFS) is systematically diagnosed in this study. The southward shift of the SWV is directly attributed to the deviation of the steering flow caused by the weak forecast of the upper-level trough. According to the diagnosis of potential tendency, the underestimation of the initial vorticity advection forecasted by CMA-GFS dominates the weak development of the upper-level trough. The underestimation of the vorticity advection is eventually sourced to the weak geostrophic wind caused by the weak initial meridional and zonal gradients of the midlevel height in front of the trough. The assimilation process on the initial field of the CMA-GFS acts a negative effect on forecasting this SWV track. It weakens the π field at midmodel level, resulting in the weak midlevel height gradient in front of the trough. A verified numerical experiment initialized by a more reasonable field is carried out and the southward shift of the SWV is obviously modified. This study suggests that a reasonable analysis field is crucial for the accurate forecast of the SWV track. Significance Statement The important impact of initial field deviation in key regions on the forecast in the late period is highlighted. A systematic diagnosis process for identifying and addressing forecast issues on SWV track is proposed. This research provides a comprehensive approach for diagnosing the forecast deviation associated with SWV track.

Upper Colorado River Streamflow Dependencies on Summertime Synoptic Circulations and Hydroclimate Variability

Abstract The southwestern United States is highly sensitive to drought, prompting efforts to understand and predict its hydroclimate. Oftentimes, the emphasis is on wintertime precipitation variability, yet the southwestern United States exhibits a summertime monsoon where a significant portion of annual precipitation falls through daily convection activities manifested by a midtropospheric ridge of high pressure. Here, we examine synoptic patterns of the southwestern ridge through a k-means clustering analysis and assess how these synoptic patterns translate into streamflow changes in the upper Colorado River basin. A linear perspective suggests ∼17% of upper Colorado River discharge at the Lee’s Ferry, Arizona, gauge comes from summertime monsoon rains. The ridge of high pressure exhibits diversity in its intensity, structure, and position, inducing changes in moisture advection and precipitation. A ridge shifted north or east of its climatological center increases moisture and precipitation over the southwestern United States, while a ridge toward the south or northwest inhibits precipitation. A ridge east of its climatological center contributes to increased streamflow, whereas a ridge west or northwest of its climatological center decreases streamflow. Cooling in the central tropical Pacific and the Pacific meridional mode region favors an eastward shift of the ridge of high pressure corresponding to wet days. Eastern tropical Pacific warming favors a southward shift of the ridge corresponding to dry days. These results support an intermediate scale between climate forcing and summertime Colorado River discharge through changes in the intensity, structure, and position of the southwestern ridge of high pressure, integral to the U.S. Southwest hydroclimate.

Impacts of Mid‐Pliocene Ice Sheets and Vegetation on Afro‐Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Revealed by EC‐Earth Simulations

AbstractThe impact of mid‐Pliocene boundary conditions on Afro‐Asian summer monsoon (AfroASM) rainfall is examined using the fully coupled Earth System Model EC‐Earth3‐LR. Our focus lies on the effects of varying CO2 concentration, diminished ice sheets and vegetation dynamics. We find that the enhanced AfroASM rainfall is predominantly caused by the “warmer‐gets‐wetter” mechanism due to elevated CO2 levels. Additionally, the ice sheet, similar in size to that of the mid‐Pliocene era, creates several indirect effects. These include sea ice‐albedo feedback and inter‐hemispheric atmosphere energy transport. Such influences result in the southward shift of Hadley circulation and formation of Pacific‐Japan pattern, leading to reduced rainfall in North African and South Asian monsoon regions but increased rainfall in East Asian monsoon region. Interestingly, while dynamic vegetation feedback has a minimal direct effect on AfroASM rainfall, it significantly influences rainfall in the mid‐high latitudes of the North Hemisphere by enhancing water vapor feedback.

Warm conveyor belt activity over the Pacific: modulation by the Madden–Julian Oscillation and impact on tropical–extratropical teleconnections

Abstract. Research in the last few decades has revealed that rapidly ascending airstreams in extratropical cyclones – so-called warm conveyor belts (WCBs) – play an important role in extratropical atmospheric dynamics. However on the subseasonal timescale, the modulation of their occurrence frequency, henceforth referred to as WCB activity, has so far received little attention. Also, it is not yet clear whether WCB activity may affect tropospheric teleconnection patterns, which constitute a source of predictability on this subseasonal timescale. Using reanalysis data, this study analyzes the modulation of WCB activity by the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). A key finding is that WCB activity increases significantly over the western North Pacific when the convection of the MJO is located over the Indian Ocean. This increased WCB activity, which is stronger during La Niña conditions, is related to enhanced poleward moisture fluxes driven by the circulation of subtropical Rossby gyres associated with the MJO. In contrast, when the convection of the MJO is located over the western North Pacific, WCB activity increases significantly over the eastern North Pacific. This increase stems from a southward shift and eastward extension of the North Pacific jet stream. However, while these mean increases are significant, individual MJO events exhibit substantial variability, with some events even exhibiting anomalously low WCB activity. Individual events of the same MJO phase with anomalously low WCB activity over the North Pacific tend to be followed by the known canonical teleconnection patterns in the Atlantic–European region; i.e., the occurrence frequency of the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is enhanced when convection of the MJO is located over the Indian Ocean and similarly for the negative phase of the NAO when MJO convection is over the western North Pacific. However, the canonical teleconnection patterns are modified when individual events of the same MJO phase are accompanied by anomalously high WCB activity over the North Pacific. In particular, the link between MJO and the negative phase of the NAO weakens considerably. Reanalysis data and experiments with an idealized general circulation model reveal that this is related to anomalous ridge building over western North America favored by enhanced WCB activity. Overall, our study highlights the potential role of WCBs in shaping tropical–extratropical teleconnection patterns and underlines the importance of representing them adequately in numerical weather prediction models in order to fully exploit the sources of predictability emerging from the tropics.

Examining the outstanding Euro-Mediterranean drought of 2021–2022 and its historical context

The Euro-Mediterranean region experienced a remarkable drought during the hydrological year 2021/22. Substantial and widespread impacts on water supply systems, agricultural crops, and the production of hydroelectric power were observed. This assessment characterises the drought from a long-term perspective using a multi-index approach and analyses the associated atmospheric circulation at the annual and monthly time scales. The main dynamical forcing of the drought was the unusual recurrence of high-pressure systems over western Europe, at least partly due to an anomalous southward shift in blocking activity and a remarkable occurrence of low-latitude blocks. This led to record-breaking positive geopotential height anomalies over western Europe and a poleward displacement of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet. Although most of the region was affected by mild drought conditions, the 2021/22 event was not unprecedented in terms of precipitation deficits since other periods of the 20th century (e.g., in the 1920s, 1940s and 1970s) displayed moderate and severe drought conditions over larger areas. However, the 2021/22 drought has been the most intense since at least 1891 because of high atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) values associated with extreme temperatures, especially during the summer of 2022. This enhanced AED also contributed to depleting soil moisture and reducing runoff generation, leading to unprecedented deficits since at least 1965. Finally, we find important differences in the 2021/22 event as compared to other major historical droughts over the Euro-Mediterranean region. In particular, the contrasting effect of AED evidences its increasing role over the last decades and warns about the current risk of experiencing unprecedented droughts.

Assessing the Current and Future Potential Distribution of Solanum rostratum Dunal in China Using Multisource Remote Sensing Data and Principal Component Analysis

Accurate information concerning the spatial distribution of invasive alien species’ habitats is essential for invasive species prevention and management, and ecological sustainability. Currently, nationwide identification of suitable habitats for the highly destructive and potentially invasive weed, Solanum rostratum Dunal (S. rostratum), poses a series of challenges. Simultaneously, research on potential future invasion areas and likely directions of spread has not received adequate attention. This study, based on species occurrence data and multi-dimensional environmental variables constructed from multi-source remote sensing data, utilized Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in combination with the Maxent model to effectively model the current and future potential habitat distribution of S. rostratum in China, while quantitatively assessing the various factors influencing its distribution. Research findings indicate that the current suitable habitat area of S. rostratum covers 1.3952 million km2, all of which is located in northern China. As the trend of climate warming persists, the potential habitat suitability range of S. rostratum is projected to shift southward and expand in the future; while still predominantly located in northern China, it will have varying degrees of expansion at different time frames. Notably, during the period from 2040 to 2061, under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the habitat area exhibits the most significant increase, surpassing the current scenario by 19.23%. Furthermore, attribution analysis based on PCA inverse transformation reveals that a combination of soil, climate, spatial, humanistic, and topographic variables collectively influence the suitability of S. rostratum habitats, with soil factors, in particular, playing a dominant role and contributing up to 75.85%. This study identifies target areas for the management and control of S. rostratum, providing valuable insights into factor selection and variable screening methods in species distribution modeling (SDM).

Marine heatwaves and global warming impacts on winter waters in the Southern Indian Ocean

In the Southern Ocean, the term “winter waters” (WWs) refers to a water mass characterized by a subsurface layer of minimum temperature that plays an important ecological role for marine ecosystems, and in particular for top predators. Given that the Southern Ocean is experiencing warming and intense marine heatwaves (MHWs), particularly at subantarctic latitudes, we investigate here how different levels of warming might impact the presence, depth and minimum temperature of WWs in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean. In particular, we assess how WWs are impacted by surface MHWs using in situ Argo hydrographic observations and biologging data. The results indicate that WWs are substantially reduced, deeper and warmer during the presence of MHWs. Using the most recent climate projections, we find a significant, but scenario-dependent, southward shift of WWs under global warming. Potential impacts of such WW shifts on pelagic ecosystems, at different timescales (from daily to decadal), are discussed.

Southward Shift and Intensification of the Intertropical Convergence Zone in the North Pacific Across the Mid‐Pleistocene Transition

AbstractThe Hadley Circulation and associated westerlies strengthened and moved equatorward across the mid‐Pleistocene transition (MPT). However, the evolution of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is still elusive due to the scarcity of long‐term hydrological records from regions sensitive to the ITCZ change. Here, high‐resolution sea surface salinity estimates derived from surface‐dwelling planktic foraminiferal δ18O and Mg/Ca in Ocean Drilling Program Site 871 reveal a long‐term freshening trend in the central equatorial Pacific across the MPT. We attribute this secular reorganization of the precipitation‐evaporation balance to the gradual southward migration and intensification of ITCZ in the North Pacific. It is inferred that the long‐term evolution of the ITCZ was modulated by the increased meridional sea surface temperature gradients and the enhancements of trade winds across the MPT.

The role of tropical rainfall in driving range dynamics for a long-distance migratory bird.

Predicting how the range dynamics of migratory species will respond to climate change requires a mechanistic understanding of the factors that operate across the annual cycle to control the distribution and abundance of a species. Here, we use multiple lines of evidence to reveal that environmental conditions during the nonbreeding season influence range dynamics across the life cycle of a migratory songbird, the American redstart (Setophaga ruticilla). Using long-term data from the nonbreeding grounds and breeding origins estimated from stable hydrogen isotopes in tail feathers, we found that the relationship between annual survival and migration distance is mediated by precipitation, but only during dry years. A long-term drying trend throughout the Caribbean is associated with higher mortality for individuals from the northern portion of the species' breeding range, resulting in an approximate 500 km southward shift in breeding origins of this Jamaican population over the past 30 y. This shift in connectivity is mirrored by changes in the redstart's breeding distribution and abundance. These results demonstrate that the climatic effects on demographic processes originating during the tropical nonbreeding season are actively shaping range dynamics in a migratory bird.

The Variation of Compound Warm Dry Extremes Over Eastern China and the Associated East Asian Subtropical Jet in the Boreal Summer

AbstractThe compound warm dry extremes (CWDEs), which can lead to extreme impacts that are much larger than the sum of the impacts due to the occurrence of individual extremes alone, have frequently hit the land regions. In this study, the spatial‐temporal variations of the frequency, warm, and dry intensity of the CWDEs over eastern China and the associated East Asian subtropical jet variations have been investigated. The results show that the first two leading CWDE frequency modes over eastern China are characterized by an increase pattern and a dipole pattern. The increases in the CWDE frequency may be accompanied by both the strong warm and dry in the northern part of China. Whereas, these may be mainly related to the strong warmth in the southern part of China. The dominant increase pattern is associated with the weakened land‐branch East Asian subtropical jet, which is maintained by the negative phase of the interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, the warming over high‐latitudes of the Atlantic Ocean and the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. The dipole pattern is related to the southward shift of the ocean‐branch East Asian subtropical jet, which is sustained by the warming in central equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans, as well as the negative phase of North Atlantic Oscillation and the Pacific‐Japan teleconnection. The relative contribution analysis has confirmed the importance of the jet variations to the CWDEs. These results would be helpful for understanding the drivers of the CWDEs.

Surface water mass dynamics at IODP Site U1313 through Principal Component Analysis: Evidence from coccolith assemblages in the ∼25–7 kyr interval

Coccolith assemblages from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site U1313 (North Atlantic; 41°0′N, 32°57.4′W) are analysed to assess temporal changes in surface water conditions from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the Middle Holocene (∼25–7 kyr). We perform Principal Component Analysis (PCA), involving both calcareous nannofossil assemblage data and other paleoenvironmental proxies. We reconstruct sea-surface dynamics using calcareous nannofossil assemblage variations and comparison with other previously published proxy data from Site U1313 including C37:4 alkenone, dolomite/calcite and quartz/calcite ratios, Uk’37 SST, as well as the sedimentation rate.We use variations in paleoproductivity proxies, cold and warm water group abundance, and the PCA results to infer North Atlantic Current (NAC) and North Atlantic Transitional Waters (NATW) migration through the studied interval. These proxies are also used to highlight variations in the Subtropical Gyre dynamics. Warming episodes are recorded during the LGM and Heinrich Stadial (HS) 1 as a result of northward expansion of the Subtropical Gyre. High coccolithophore productivity episodes characterize HS 1 and 2, and are concomitant with increasing terrigenous input. Both processes are considered a consequence of iceberg influence, which transport nutrients and ice-rafted debris to the area. A southward shift of the Subpolar Front and NAC favour the expansion of cold water from 25.3 ka to the end of the Younger Dryas, whereas the early Holocene is characterized by NATW influence resulting from northward migration of the NAC and Azores Current.

Thermal histories reveal spatiotemporal distribution and population overlapping of Sepioteuthis lessoniana

Abstract Thermal histories describe ambient temperature experienced by cephalopod species from birth to death, reflecting their habitats and distributions. Thermal histories were reconstructed by analyzing ontogenetic oxygen isotopes (δ18O values) in statoliths of adult Sepioteuthis lessoniana collected from northeastern and southwestern Taiwan between 2017 and 2019. The probabilities of occurrence associated with thermal histories in the two populations were modeled using a spatial interpolation approach, ordinary kriging method. The northeastern population exhibited larger ontogenetic variations in experienced temperature (ranging from 9.1 to 10.4°C) than did the southwestern population (ranging from 4.3°C to 6.8°C). The two geographical populations exhibited distinct ontogenetic movement patterns and distribution. The southwestern population demonstrated wide dispersal influenced by seasonal wind directions and tended to remain in 20°C isotherm areas around the Penghu Islands for maturing and spawning. At the seasonal cohort level, the northeastern population exhibited a southward shift during the 2-year study period as a result of the El Niño event. The distribution of the two geographical populations overlapped in the adult stage primarily in the northern Taiwan Strait, supporting an assumption of population connection in Taiwan. This study revealed the thermal histories of S. lessoniana, providing insights into the field observation of distribution patterns and the progress in relating population dynamics to environmental variability, which are essential for the sustainable management of squid fisheries.

Inclination Trend of the Agulhas Return Current Path in Three Decades

The Agulhas Return Current (ARC), as a primary component of the Agulhas system, contributes to water exchange and mass transport between the southern portions of the Indian and Atlantic Ocean basins. In this study, satellite altimeter data and reanalysis datasets, and a new set of criteria for the piecewise definition of the jet axis are used to explore the long-term change of the ARC’s axis position in recent three decades. It is found that the ARC axis exhibits a significant slanting trend with its western part (35–48°E) migrating northward and the eastern part (48–70°E) migrating southward. The meridional movement of the ARC path could be attributed to large-scale wind forcing. The anomalous surface wind stress curl, by Ekman pumping mechanism, leads to positive–negative–positive sea surface height anomalies in the western section and negative–positive–negative anomalies in the eastern section, thus the ARC axis tilts accordingly, in a northwest–southeast direction. Further analysis suggests that this ARC slanting trend is more dependent on the southward shift of the downstream axis and less on the topographic steering upstream. The downstream axis is more likely to interact with the ACC fronts and its migration could dominate the local EKE pattern by changing the background circulation and energy cascade direction. For the headstream west of 35°E, the ARC axis is more subject to topography, thus the EKE change is more dominated by eddy activity processes, including shedding, propagation and merging. This study provides some new insights into the long-term change of ARC and its interaction with the local EKE variability.

Step-wise shifted rainbelt throughout the early last deglaciation

Millennial climate change since the last deglaciation have drawn much attention. Even though the role of northern hemisphere is much focused on, how the tropic performed remains disputed. Here based on Mg/Ca and δ18Osw local from planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber, sub-millennial scale hydroclimate record throughout the early last deglaciation is presented from the northern South China Sea, near the northern boundary of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Coupled with previous research, we speculate that rainbelt/ITCZ was located northerly from 19 to 18 ka, and migrated southward within two-steps during Heinrich 1 event. Northerly ITCZ during 19–18 ka was rendered by tropical warming since 19 ka through the Gill-Matsuno response, which strengthened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, contributing to intense monsoon precipitation over east Asia, and dry conditions around the western Pacific. The subsequent two-steps ITCZ southward shift during Heinrich 1 was driven by weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, which was produced by the lowering northern hemisphere ice-sheet at ∼16.2 ka. Step-wise shifted rainbelt/ITCZ documented from our record indicates multiple factors dominated sub-millennial scale climate change during the whole last deglaciation. We highlight the important roles of tropical warming and ocean circulation in initiating the last deglaciation and the subsequent climate change, respectively.

Dynamics of the Agulhas Current Influenced by the North–South Shift of Subtropical Front

Abstract The influence of meridional shift of the oceanic subtropical front (STF) on the Agulhas Current (AC) regime shifts is studied using satellite altimeter data and a 1.5-layer ocean model. The satellite observations suggest the northward shift of the STF leads to the AC leaping across the gap with little Agulhas leakage, and the southward shift of the STF mainly results in the AC intruding into the Atlantic Ocean in the forms of a loop current and an eddy-shedding path, while there are three flow patterns of AC for moderate latitude of the STF. The ocean model results suggest no hysteresis (associated with multiple equilibrium states) exists in the AC system. The model reproduces similar AC regimes depending on different gap widths as in the observations, and model results can be used to explain the observed Agulhas leakage well. We also present the parameter space of the critical AC strength that results in different AC flow patterns as a function of the gap width. The vorticity dynamics of the AC regime shift suggests that the β term is mainly balanced by the viscosity term for the AC in the leaping and loop current paths, while the β and instantaneous vorticity terms are mainly balanced by the advection and viscosity terms for the AC in the eddy-shedding path. These findings help explain the dynamics of the AC flowing across the gateway beyond the tip of Africa affected by the north–south shift of the STF in the leaping regime or penetrating regime.

Possible mechanism of the mid-high-latitude synoptic-scale disturbances impact on Meiyu precipitation anomalies

Precipitation during the Meiyu period in East Asia demonstrated a tendency towards increased frequency of rainstorms and escalating disaster-causing potential, exhibiting significant inter-annual variations in recent years. The relationship between Meiyu precipitation (MP) anomalies, related circulation anomalies and mid-high-latitude synoptic-scale disturbances was investigated by observation and reanalysis data from 1979 to 2018 and the regional climate model (RegCM4.6). Based on the observation results, the physical mechanism of disturbance affecting MP was proposed and verified by numerical simulation experiments. The results show that, during the Meiyu periods, the variation of synoptic-scale disturbances over Lake Baikal correlates negatively with MP anomalies, where the abnormal zonal winds and the disturbance anomalies show a strong spatially consistent coherence in the upper troposphere. Compared to drought years, the weaker conversion of disturbance energy to mean flow and the convergence of anomalous Eliassen-Palm (E-P) flux induce mid-high-latitude anomalous easterly flow during the Meiyu period in flood years. The occurrence of such conditions leads to the southward shift of the East-Asian subtropical jet (STJ). Then, anomalous stronger ascending flow over the Meiyu region finally results in stronger MP. In addition, warm temperature anomaly and warm advection anomaly exist at lower latitudes in flood years, while mid-high latitudes exhibit cold temperature anomaly and cold advection anomaly, which is conducive to the southward shift of the East-Asian STJ and the increase of MP. Based on the above diagnosis, sensitivity experiments were conducted using RegCM4.6. When the mid-high-latitude synoptic-scale disturbances are amplified during flood years or flood decades, the MP correspondingly decreases, and vice versa. The simulation results also show that the convergence (divergence) of mid-high-latitude E-P flux results in a weakening (strengthening) of the westerly flow, which leads to the southward (northward) shift of the East-Asian STJ. The alteration of the STJ's position in East Asia alters the position of the ascending branch of the vertical meridional circulation corresponding to the jet stream, subsequently impacting MP. Therefore, both diagnosis and numerical simulation reveal the possible mechanism of synoptic disturbances in mid-high latitude affecting MP in Yangtze River Basin, thus enriching the study of MP anomaly mechanism during Meiyu period.