Southern Periphery Research Articles

Monitoring Spatial and Seasonal Abundance of Indian Wild Ass (<i>Equus hemionus khur</i>) in Little Rann of Kutch Landscape, Western India

<p class="Default">The present study was conducted in Little Rann of Kutch (LRK) landscape in the Gujarat state of western India. It is a vast saline mud-plain holding the last remaining source population of Indian wild ass (<em>Equus hemionus khur</em>) or Khur after its population from other parts of the world got locally extinct. Khur occupy fringes of the Sanctuary and bets (islands) having grassland and scrubland vegetation. Taking adequate and effective management decisions and monitoring would be difficult in absence of reliable information. Line transect sampling will ensure robust population estimate of Khur. By bridging this gap with adequate information, meaningful and effective management decisions can be taken. We have conducted line transect surveys using foot and vehicle transect following distance sampling in southern fringe as intensive study site. The density estimates (No./km<sup>2</sup> ± SE) in southern fringe of LRK during two surveys were 5.76 ± 0.91, 6.08 ± 1.39 in winter and 2.29 ± 0.55 in summer from foot transect and 5.2 ± 0.73, 6.72 ± 1.12 in winter and 4.29 ± 0.87 in summer from vehicle transect, respectively. The study will help managers to evaluate long term monitoring method and make adaptive management decisions.</p>

Investing in the single market? Core-periphery dynamics and the hybrid governance of supranational investment policies

ABSTRACT This article examines the impact of supranational investment policies on the resilience of the common market project and its impact on core-periphery dynamics. Reconstructing the hybrid governance processes around the Investment Plan for Europe (2015–2020) and its geographical distribution, it finds that these policies were effective in channelling funds to the Southern periphery after the Eurozone crisis, but aggravated the core-periphery dynamic for Eastern Europe. This fact stems from the differential presence of national public financing institutions as well as unevenly developed capital markets, two factors that are linked to the multi-level and public-private governance mix in the EU’s investment policies. These results hold implications for how to assess follow-up programs such as InvestEU and the Sustainable Investment Plan in the European Green Deal.

Preliminary investigation on the extreme rainfall event during July 2021 in Henan Province and its multi-scale processes

<p indent="0mm">During July 17–22, 2021, a disastrous extreme rainfall event occurred in Henan Province, China, with the maximum 6-day accumulated rainfall obtained from meteorological observations being <sc>1122.6 mm</sc> (Hebi City). The maximum hourly rainfall reached <sc>201.9 mm</sc> (Zhengzhou city), which broke the record in the inland of China. The daily rainfall of 1/6 of the national rain gauge stations in Henan Province exceeded their respective records. In this study, a comprehensive review and a preliminary investigation on the multi-scale atmospheric processes are conducted by using rain gauge observations, sounding data, Doppler weather radar observations and the ERA5 reanalysis data. Results show that this extreme rainfall event was caused by the joint effect of multi-scale atmospheric systems in the middle and low latitudes, and the effect of local topography: (1) The western Pacific subtropical high is abnormally northerly and strong, as compared with the mean circulation in July during the 30-year period of 1991–2020. It prevented the tropical cyclone “In-fa” from moving northward, and was conducive to the westward movement of “In-fa” along its southern periphery. An easterly low-level jet formed between the subtropical high and “In-fa”, which strengthened the water vapor transport to East China. (2) The water vapor was transported from the South China Sea to the Northwest Pacific by the southwest monsoon, and then was carried northwards by the tropical cyclone “In-fa”. The water vapor over the Northwest Pacific was transported to Henan Province by the easterly jet on the north of “In-fa” and the southeast flow around the southwestern periphery of the western Pacific subtropical high. This abnormal remote water vapor transport associated with the tropical cyclone caused a positive anomaly in precipitable water in Henan. (3) In the upper troposphere, the location of Henan Province was in front of an upper-troposphere trough. In the lower troposphere, there was a low-level vortex or an inverted trough over Henan and its periphery. The synoptic conditions over Henan were conducive to the convergence and upward motion of lower-tropospheric atmosphere. In addition, the Funiu and Taihang mountain ranges favored the convergence of water vapor and the uplift of the approaching easterly or southeasterly airflow. (4) The subtropical high and the abnormally strong continental high connected and formed a “high-pressure dam”, which prevented mid-latitude cold air from moving southward. The extreme rainfall in Zhengzhou occurred in a warm-humid environment which resulted in a low-centroid precipitation resembling tropical precipitation. During the two days with the heaviest rainfall in Zhengzhou, convection was initiated continuously and merged into the main convective cluster from the southeast, south and southwest respectively, which helped maintain the mesoscale convective system in Henan for a long time.

СУДЕБНАЯ РЕФОРМА ПЕТРА ВЕЛИКОГО В КОНТЕКСТЕ АДМИНИСТРАТИВНЫХ ПРЕОБРАЗОВАНИЙ (1717–1727)

The judicial reform occupies a special place among other transformations of Peter the Great. Some researchers call it the first attempt to “separate the trial from the administration”. Other scholars believe that the judicial reforms of the first quarter of the 18th century cannot be separated from the management reforms, since the changes in the court and administration were closely related to each other and had common ideological foundations expressed in the works of cameralists. The article is devoted to the analysis of the judicial reform of 1717–1727. The study focuses on the exploration of the organization of the court and “lower” tribunals, originally represented by provincial and city courts. The author characterizes the locations of court and provincial tribunals and considers the main reasons for the creation (or not creation) of judicial districts in provinces. In addition, attention is drawn to the peculiarities of the formation of judicial districts of city judges and judicial commissioners. As a result of the analysis of legal acts and documents of the court’s office, the author concluded that the second provincial reform had a strong influence on the implementation of the judicial reform. Despite the attempts of the Judicial Collegium to distribute judges evenly across the country, judicial transformations spread from the center (St. Petersburg and Moscow) to the southern and eastern periphery. In some cases, the determination of the composition of judges and their placement in judicial districts was inconsistent, which predetermined the partial and then full return of judicial powers to local administrators.

Folk demonology of Podlasie (based on own materials)

The article publishes field material on the folk demonology of Podlasie, collected by the author in 1990, 1993, and 2017. Mythological characters are described with functions typical for the spirits of the house and barn: weasel as the patron of cattle, “zmora”, braiding the mane of horses and strangling the sleeping ones. The brownie demon-enricher has a number of similarities with the West Slavic flying fiery serpent. The territory of Podlasie is the western periphery of the East Slavic distribution area of rusalky and the southern periphery of the distribution area of Lithuanian “laumė” (“loima” in Podlasie). Rusalky, in addition to their typical properties (appearance in a rye field etc.), sometimes combine the signs of other characters – they mix with Lady Midday, with weasel, sirens (half-maiden-half-fish), are identified with the grasshopper and flashing lights. The demon that makes a person go astray is known as “blud”, which is characteristic of this character in the folk tradition of Western Ukrainians, Poles and other Western Slavs. The water spirit (“vodyanoy”) is almost unknown, it was mainly used to frighten only children. Many beliefs are associated with death and the souls of the dead: the souls of unbaptized children, the walking dead (vampire), the image of death. Tales and beliefs about witches and sorcerers are widespread, especially stories about stealing milk from other people’s cows. Beliefs about werewolfes, double-hearted aliens, sorcerers who drive away clouds and a single mention of a cloud-ruler demon are recorded. The devil appears both in the anthropomorphic form of a gentleman in a black hat, and in the zoomorphic form of a dog or a black ram. Some characters are found only in verbal formulas that are used to scare children.

The Baku Crisis in the History of the Batum Subsystem: the Culmination of the Failed Imperial Projects, August–September 1918

The rapidly developing Batum sub-system entered the phase of an open clash of imperial con-tenders for hegemony in the macro-region in August–September 1918. The scale and significance of the military operations took on a new dimension, with the issue of control over the largest oil-producing area at stake, and with broad prospects for further expansion by the Central Powers in the Middle East and Central Asia. Not only the supply of fuel to several great powers, but also the balance of power on the Ottoman fronts of the Great War as well as the fate of a number of state projects underpinning the reorganisation of the southern periphery of the former Russian Empire depended on the outcome of the struggle for Baku. The military and political capabilities of Germany, Soviet Russia, the British and Ottoman Empires were greatly hampered by a number of conflicts between forces operating in the region, as well as by a number of infrastructural and technical difficulties. This delayed the realisation of the imperial projects and was a catalyst for an acute crisis on other fronts in the Great War and the Russian Civil War. The gradual process of shaping German hegemony and incorporating the Batum sub-system into the wider structure of the Brest System was halted before the World War I had entered the stage of collapse of the Central Powers. The battle for Baku marked not only the potential for, but also the limits of possible inter-imperial compromises. The complexity of the diplomatic confrontation around the transformation of the Transcaucasus is often underestimated when viewed at a local level, but reference to archival sources and memoirs, including unpublished ones, enables many regional conflicts to be embedded in a global imperial context and reveals patterns in the military and political situation far beyond the macro-region in question.

The moss flora of the Badzhal Mountain Range (Khabarovsk Territory, Russian Far East)

On the southern periphery of Badzhal Mountain Range on, an area of about 25 sq. km, we found 313 species of mosses, listed here with distribution along with the altitudinal belts, ecotopes, and substrates. Among them, 73 species are newly recorded for the middle part of Khabarovsk Territory, and 39 of them are new to the whole Khabarovsk Territory, including rare species with no or few previously known records in Russia such as Campylopus gracilis, Sematophyllum substrumulosum, Anomodon solovjovii, Bryoerythrophyllum chenii, Dicranum setifolium, Ditrichum macrorhynchum, Haplohymenium longinerve, Okamurea hakkoniensis, Orthotrichum rogeri, Sphagnum miyabeanum, S. subnitens; identity of several species needs in specially focused taxonomic studies. Studied flora is compared with ones of Zeysky State Nature Reserve, Upper Bureya, and a combined list of mosses of Botchinsky Nature Reserve and Tordoki-Yani Mt. Among all these floras, the proportion of Eastern species in Badzhal is the highest. Main types of vegetation and bryophyte ecotopes are briefly characterized; distribution of species along an altitudinal gradient among considered types of habitats and substrates, is discussed.

库布齐沙漠南缘风沙-植被相互作用及其景观效应

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 库布齐沙漠南缘风沙-植被相互作用及其景观效应 DOI: 10.5846/stxb202101270289 作者: 作者单位: 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目（41671002）；青海省重点研发与转化计划项目（2019-HZ-814-1） Interaction between aeolian processes and vegetation and its landscape effect in the southern fringe of Hobq Desert Author: Affiliation: Fund Project: 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:干旱区尤其沙漠边缘地区的风沙与植被相互作用对塑造地表景观具有重要意义。选择库布齐沙漠南缘的油蒿灌丛地为研究区，开展了植被调查、风沙流观测和表层沉积物粒度采样测试，分析了顺风向植被盖度、风沙流结构与沉积物特征的沿程变化，探讨了风沙-植被相互作用及其对地表景观格局的影响。结果表明，风沙流与植被相互作用方式的改变使植物生长状况与地表蚀积模式发生变化，进而导致顺风向景观表现出明显的空间异质性。自上风向裸地过渡到均匀分布的新生油蒿和油蒿灌丛再至斑块状分布的灌丛沙堆，植被盖度与覆沙厚度先增大后减小，空气动力学粗糙度沿程不断增加且在过渡时其增幅最大，输沙率与沉积物粒度呈先减小后增大趋势，并在植被盖度与覆沙厚度最大处出现最小值。在沙漠边缘剥蚀高原上，起初适量风沙堆积促进油蒿定植与生长，均匀分布的油蒿灌丛进一步促进沙物质堆积，但当堆积厚度超过油蒿耐沙埋深度时发生退化，灌丛出现斑块状分布且风沙流在丘间地处侵蚀。据此，可理解为剥蚀高原风沙区景观异质性是风沙与植被相互协同与抑制作用的结果。 Abstract:The interaction between aeolian sand drift and vegetation in arid region, especially in the fringe of desert, is of great significance in shaping the surface landscape. To be specific, in the process of aeolian sediment transport, the fine particles provide nutrients and water for vegetation colonization and growth, and when plants grow to a certain extent, they affect the pattern of sand erosion and accumulation by covering surface, capturing sand materials and dispersing wind energy. The change of the pattern and the difference of vegetation growth make the landscape appear spatial heterogeneity. In order to explore the interaction between aeolian processes and vegetation and the resulting landscape heterogeneity, the Artemisia ordosica shrub land in the southern fringe of Hobq Desert, which was located in the arid and semi-arid transition zone, was selected as the study area, and then vegetation investigation, the field observation of air flow, sand transport rate and sampling of sediment grain size were carried out. Based on the work, we analyzed the changes of vegetation coverage, air flow structure and sediment grain size characteristics along the wind direction, and discussed the interaction between sand drift and vegetation and its impact on landscape pattern. The results show that the change of the interaction mode between aeolian processes and vegetation alters the pattern of plants growth and surface erosion and deposition, resulting in obviously spatial heterogeneity in the downwind landscape. From bare land to uniformly distributed newborn Artemisia ordosica and shrubs, and then to patch distributed nebkhas, the vegetation coverage and sand cover thickness firstly increase and then decrease, the aerodynamic roughness rises continuously along the process, and the growth is the largest during the transition, while the sand transport rate and sediment particle size show a trend of first descent and then ascent, and the minimum value appears at the maximum of vegetation coverage and sand cover thickness. On the denudate plateau of the desert fringe, an appropriate amount of sand accumulation promotes the colonization and growth of the Artemisia ordosica at first, and the uniformly distributed shrubs further boosts sand deposition. However, when the accumulation thickness exceeds the sand resistant burial depth of Artemisia ordosica, it degenerates. Then, the shrub appears patchy distribution and the sand flow erodes between the interdune. Therefore, it can be understood that the landscape heterogeneity in the sandy area of the denuded plateau is the result of the synergy and inhibition of aeolian processes and vegetation. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献

Inventory of glacial curvilineations (GCLs) at the southern periphery of the last Scandinavian Ice Sheet

Glacial curvilineations (GCLs) are enigmatic landforms recently discovered in the southern peripheral area of the last Scandinavian Ice Sheet (SIS). They consist of multiple parallel, winding ridges several metres high and up to several kilometers long, systematically arranged in groups of common geomorphic appearance. GCLs create spectacular landscapes whose origin generates much controversy. Expanding from the first GCLs finding in central Poland, we now present an inventory of other GCLs occurrences along the SIS margin in Poland, Germany and Denmark based on analysis of high-resolution LiDAR digital elevation models. We document a total of 59 glacial curvilineation fields and focus on the geomophic characteristics of the 43 most conspicuous ones. Each of these fields consists of smaller units called GCL swarms, 137 in total. The fields differ strongly in areal coverage (between 1 and 358 km2), number of swarms (between 1 and 21) and number of individual landforms (between 2 and 255). All GCL fields occur in tunnel valleys terminating at the ice margin, typically at various topographical levels. Our findings, interpreted in the context of glacial geological processes, support the origin of GCLs as erosional remnants of antecedent landscapes carved by channelized subglacial meltwater flows.

Outstanding Monument of Garden and Park Art of Kyiv and Problems of Its Environment

The purpose of the article is to analyze the monument and expert assessment of the monument of garden and park art Central Republican Botanical Garden (1 Timiriazievska Street, Kyiv) and its urban environment, which is rapidly evolving, threatening this monument naturally of the reserved fund and cultural heritage sites located on its territory, which requires the development of the protection zoning concept in the areas adjacent to the monument in order to preserve this unique cultural and natural heritage. The research methodology is based on the use of general scientific and special methods, including the historical method in a systematic approach, when the set of monuments connected by a common area, as well as the surrounding environment as an object of study is considered in development, as well as the comparative method, analysis and synthesis, deduction and induction. The scientific novelty of the research is that for the first time a comprehensive analysis of this monument of park and garden art as an object not only of nature reserves, but also immovable cultural heritage type ‘landmark’, articulated problems caused by rapid and chaotic development urban environment around this monument, and also proposed a conceptual approach to the protective zoning of areas around the monument. Conclusions. All cultural heritage sites, including the Central Republican Botanical Garden as an object of study, form the traditional nature of the environment of the southern periphery of the historic centre of Kyiv. The object of study for its compositional role in the traditional nature of the environment is the landscape dominant of the large-scale monument ‘Cultural Landscape of the Kyiv Mountains and the Dnieper River Valley’, the compositional and species influence of which extends to the entire Dnieper Valley between the E. Paton and the South bridges. With this in mind, a conclusion was made about the insufficiency and obsolescence of the existing protection zoning in the areas adjacent to the monument in question, and a new concept of protection zoning with additional development control zones was defined. Their approval will allow actualizing the territorial-environmental approach as the most effective in preserving the traditional Kyiv character of the environment for the present and future generations.

Modeling the short-term fire effects on vegetation dynamics and surface energy in southern Africa using the improved SSiB4/TRIFFID-Fire model

Abstract. Fire causes abrupt changes in vegetation properties and modifies flux exchanges between land and atmosphere at subseasonal to seasonal scales. Yet these short-term fire effects on vegetation dynamics and surface energy balance have not been comprehensively investigated in the fire-coupled vegetation model. This study applies the SSiB4/TRIFFID-Fire (the Simplified Simple Biosphere Model coupled with the Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics with fire) model to study the short-term fire impact in southern Africa. Specifically, we aim to quantify how large impacts fire exerts on surface energy through disturbances on vegetation dynamics, how fire effects evolve during the fire season and the subsequent rainy season, and how surface-darkening effects play a role besides the vegetation change effects. We find fire causes an annual average reduction in grass cover by 4 %–8 % for widespread areas between 5–20∘ S and a tree cover reduction by 1 % at the southern periphery of tropical rainforests. The regional fire effects accumulate during June–October and peak in November, the beginning of the rainy season. After the fire season ends, the grass cover quickly returns to unburned conditions, while the tree fraction hardly recovers in one rainy season. The vegetation removal by fire has reduced the leaf area index (LAI) and gross primary productivity (GPP) by 3 %–5 % and 5 %–7 % annually. The exposure of bare soil enhances surface albedo and therefore decreases the absorption of shortwave radiation. Annual mean sensible heat has dropped by 1.4 W m−2, while the latent heat reduction is small (0.1 W m−2) due to the compensating effects between canopy transpiration and soil evaporation. Surface temperature is increased by as much as 0.33 K due to the decrease of sensible heat fluxes, and the warming would be enhanced when the surface-darkening effect is incorporated. Our results suggest that fire effects in grass-dominant areas diminish within 1 year due to the high resilience of grasses after fire. Yet fire effects in the periphery of tropical forests are irreversible within one growing season and can cause large-scale deforestation if accumulated for hundreds of years.

HEAVY PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE OVER KHERSON WEATHER STATION ACCORDING TO METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS AND ERA5 REANALYSIS

The paper presents the results of a study of heavy precipitation in the form of rain (&gt; 30 mm/12 h) using data from the meteorological observations and atmospheric reanalysis ERA5 at the Kherson weather station in 2005-2021.Detected that at the Kherson there were only 19 cases of heavy rainfall, which occurred only in the warm half of the year with a maximum recurrence in July. Compared to 1961-1990, the number of heavy rains of 2005-2021 increased in July and June, and decreased in August.Determined that most of the real cases of increased precipitation in Kherson are in good agreement with the results of the ERA5 reanalysis, but in almost a third of the simulation episodes did not show heavy precipitation at the Kherson coordinates or their center was shifted.Heavy rains in Kherson were formed in a field of low atmospheric pressure, with a weak northwest wind and accompanied by thunderstorms.Clarified that most episodes of heavy rainfall in Kherson in 2005-2021 are associated with the movement of southern cyclones, others formed on the southern periphery of the anticyclone in the southwestern direction of the jet stream in the troposphere.

Multispecies community gardening: Inquiring material-discursive anthropocentrism through a Roman gardening experience

Positioning my investigation within feminist posthumanist studies, in this article I will focus on the incessant interactions of more-than-human life that co-construct urban spaces. Exploring the activities carried out in a Roman shared urban garden, I will offer a picture of some material-semiotic dimensions and shared agencies that are condensed around vegetal life. I will investigate some multispecies assemblages with wich I entered in interaction during an ethnographic terrain that I carried out between 2017 and 2019. The garden constitutes a clearly multispecies space in which the more-than-human (vegetal and animal) agency in its shared mode is in action in everyday life. The article will emerge as a continuous dialogue between ethnographic fieldnotes, theory, extracts from interviews and analyses. I will begin by presenting the terrain in which I conducted a multispecies ethnography, a self-managed urban garden in the southern periphery of the city. I will then proceed to outline some theoretical and methodological elements. I will thus analyse some of the multispecies relationships that co-build and cross the garden, focusing on the intertwining of material and discursive dimensions. I will report some examples of how this shared relationality is implemented and elaborated by the citizens who take part in it, generating hierarchies that diverge from a fully modern approach but that still maintain degrees of anthropocentrism, while opening imaginative spaces that can inspire further transformations towards multispecies justice.

Assessment of the factors affecting slope stability in the southern part of the Sofia Kettle

A specific sample area was selected, where an assessment model was made for the stability of a slope subjected to anthropogenic impacts. A hillside slope zone from the foot of the Vitosha and Lozen mountains in the southern periphery of the Sofia Kettle was chosen as an exemplary area for a part of the hazards arising in the Trans-Balkan valleys. The anthropogenic impact on their slope stability was studied on three particular slopes. The study area is about 1.25 km2 and has a maximum distance of up to 3.80 km between the slopes. Landslide processes resulting from anthropogenic impact often occur on the territory of the Sofia Valley. The rise of construction, the development of hard-to-reach terrains with steep slopes, their undercutting, the seismic impact and the low values of the strength-deformation parameters of the geological varieties building up the respective terrains contribute to their occurrence. The deforestation, the loads with heavy embankments, the hydration and the inhomogeneity of the layers of the earth base have a strong destabilizing effect. The paper presents the results of field and laboratory tests and analyses of slope stability by the method of Fellenius. The severity of the impact of the various destabilizing factors was assessed.

The uppermost Messinian–Quaternary evolution of the Anamur–Kormakiti zone: The transition between the Outer Cilicia and Antalya basins, northeastern Mediterranean

A dense grid of high-resolution multichannel seismic reflection profiles are used to delineate the stratigraphic and structural architecture of the Anamur–Kormakiti zone which separates the Outer Cilicia Basin from the eastern Antalya Basin. The data showed that the uppermost Messinian–Quaternary structural framework of the region is characterized by two arcuate south-convex sinistral strike-slip fault zones in the northeast and east which converge to form a ∼70–80 km wide NW–SE trending zone, consisting of two internally-parallel dextral strike-slip fault zones in the northwest and west. A narrow NNW–SSE trending zone occupied by similarly trending positive flower structures across the Anamur–Kormakiti zone suggests that this region is probably a rotational stepover between two oppositely moving strike-slip fault zones. The regionally extensive strike-slip fault zones are largely developed during the Pliocene–Quaternary along the southern fringes of the Taurus Mountains in response to the westward escape of the Aegean–Anatolian Microplate following the collision and suturing of the Arabian Plate to the Eurasian Plate during the end of Miocene–Early Pliocene.

Larger body size leads to greater female beluga whale ovarian reproductive activity at the southern periphery of their range.

Identification of phenotypic characteristics in reproductively successful individuals provides important insights into the evolutionary processes that cause range shifts due to environmental change. Female beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) from the Baffin Bay region (BB) of the Canadian Arctic in the core area of the species’ geographic range have larger body size than their conspecifics at the southern range periphery in Hudson Bay (HB). We investigated the mechanism for this north and south divergence as it relates to ovarian reproductive activity (ORA = total corpora) that combines morphometric data with ovarian corpora counted from female reproductive tracts. Our study aim was to assess the relative influence of age and body size of female beluga whale on ORA in the two populations. Female beluga whale ORA increased more quickly with age (63% partial variation explained) in BB than in HB (41%). In contrast, body length in HB female beluga whales accounted for considerably more of the total variation (12% vs. 1%) in ORA compared to BB whales. We speculate that female HB beluga whale ORA was more strongly linked with body length due to higher population density resulting in food competition that favors the energetic advantages of larger body size during seasonal food limitations. Understanding the evolutionary mechanism of how ORA varies across a species’ range will assist conservation efforts in anticipating and mitigating future challenges associated with a warming planet.

The impact of weak environmental steering flow on tropical cyclone track predictability

AbstractTyphoonsHaiyan(2013) andHagupit(2014) are examples of two tropical cyclones (TCs) for which, despite similarities in the track and intensity, the predictabilities differed greatly. Both TCs made landfall over the Philippines having followed a similar track across the Pacific and both reached intensities in excess of 60 ms−1. Operational global ensemble forecasts showed large uncertainty in the track of , whereas the ensemble spread for was considerably less. Using the Met Office's Unified Model, 5‐day global ensemble forecasts were produced for both storms. Consistent with the operational forecasts produced at the time of the storms, the spread of tracks is greater in the forecasts produced for than . The latter was located on the southern periphery of the subtropical high and embedded in a strong easterly flow. In contrast, the position of between two anticyclones earlier in the forecast is key to the subsequent motion of the storm in determining whether would make landfall over the Philippines or turn to the north. Upper‐level winds contributed the most to the depth‐averaged steering flow. Statistically significant differences in the strength of the upper‐level anticyclone to the east of the storm, the strength and position of the upper‐level ridge downstream of the storm and the location of a detached potential vorticity (PV) streamer appear between two groups of ensemble members – those which turn to the north and those which make landfall. Positional differences of the TC in different ensemble members earlier in the forecasts, particularly in the east to west direction, are correlated to larger northeast to southwest position differences later in the forecast. Ensemble sensitivity analysis suggests that this initial east–west positional variance is linked to the upper‐level geopotential height directly south of the storm. Accurately representing both the steering flow and the position of is vital for an accurate forecast.

Border and Textuality in the Mediterranean: United States and Spain in Transition Towards Democracy under the Cold War

The Political Transition catalyzed a change process in the Spanish society that would lead to its international standardization. The international dimension was the key to understand the nature of the Spanish Policy concerning the Mediterranean Area, its close southern periphery, and the guidelines of the Modernization in a European and Western sense. The reflection about the meaning of the frontier in the historical and cultural background of the United States of America and Spain according to the Mediterranean world, is analyzed from these two approaches: on the one hand, the challenge and the debate about the Modernity and Modernization throughout the 20th century in the special context of the Political Transition; and, on the other hand, the different experiences that were converging from Washington and Madrid around the Mediterranean as a frontier in term of security.

Systematic growth asymmetry in the Eurozone? Evidence from a natural experiment

The purpose of the study is to determine whether the euro has caused a systematic growth asymmetry within the Eurozone; namely, between Eurozone's core and Eurozone's southern periphery. The overall growth effect of the euro on the entire Eurozone is also evaluated. The model specification is based on the neoclassical growth model extended to include human capital accumulation. The empirical analysis is organized in terms of a natural experiment where several counterfactual control groups are utilized to simulate growth in the absence of the euro. Estimation is based on a balanced panel of annual observations from twenty-one countries for the period from 1980 to 2017. The study finds that the euro has caused a systematic growth asymmetry within the Eurozone. The euro has been a growth stimulant for Eurozone's core but growth inhibitor for Eurozone's southern periphery, thus, yielding a dual speed Eurozone. This result is robust to the choice of counterfactual control group and to the 2008 global financial crisis. The study also finds that remarkable growth performance is possible for European economies outside the EU structure, thus, without the euro.

Quantitative Account of the Non-Slavic Population of the South of Russia in the Second Half of the 19th century

The Russian state continued, in relation to the non-Slavic population of its southern periphery in the XIX century, to pursue its integrative policy, the intensity of which was largely due to the geopolitical arrangement of forces in the region, as well as to the degree of stability of the local management system and the stance of the local elite. One of the important indicators of the integration of the territory into the imperial space was possessing information about the size of its population by the imperial administration. The purpose of the study is to identify, on the basis of analyzing the documents from the funds of the State Archive of the Astrakhan Region, the State Archive of the Stavropol Territory and the National Archive of the Republic of Kalmykia, as well as the achievements of other researchers, the methods of accounting for the number of nomadic peoples, using the example of Kalmyks, Turkmens and Nogais. The study revealed that three main stages can be distinguished in the policy of accounting for the nomadic population of the southern outskirts of the Russian Empire, the main feature of each of which is the way of collecting information: that is, statistical, metric, and demographic. The first method is related to the formation of a reporting institute of foreign directorates. The second method which was the metrics, left to the clergy, was not considered the systematic and reliable data. Conducting censuses of the population (family lists, countermarks) testified to the establishment of demographic accounts in nomadic societies of the southern periphery of the Russian Empire.