Articles published on South Indian Ocean
Authors
Select Authors
Journals
Select Journals
Duration
Select Duration
1048 Search results
Sort by Recency
- Research Article
- 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.107938
- May 1, 2026
- Marine environmental research
- Vinicius Robert + 9 more
Conflicts between large marine predators and fisheries often involve both indirect (competition for fish stocks) and direct negative interactions (bycatch or depredation). However, the extent and the mechanisms of these conflicts are hampered by lack of data on the behavior of predators in natural situations (absence of fishing vessels) and in response to fishing activities. For killer whales Orcinus orca in the remote subantarctic waters of the southern South Atlantic and Indian Oceans, this lack of understanding is particularly problematic since negative interactions with industrial fisheries targeting toothfish affect the conservation of populations. In this study, we combined data from 36 satellite tags deployed on killer whales in these regions between 2011 and 2024 with tracking (AIS) data of toothfish fishing vessels to i) assess the overlap between killer whale offshore foraging areas and fishing areas, and ii) examine the factors influencing the decision of individuals to engage in depredation. Through kernel utilization distributions and statistical models we show that killer whales foraged in offshore areas used by fishing vessels to catch toothfish, but this overlap varied greatly across individuals within populations. We found that killer whales changed their trajectories and headed toward fishing vessels as far as > 100km from them, possibly to engage in depredation. However, this behavior was not systematic and differed across individuals and areas. The behavior was detected only 55% of the times killer whales entered a 60km range from a vessel. By highlighting areas of co-occurrence of killer whales and fisheries and the extent to which killer whales are able to change their behavior in response to fishing activities, our findings provide information that can be used to mitigate the negative impacts of interactions.
- Research Article
- 10.1029/2025jd045901
- Mar 16, 2026
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
- Shiwu Zhu + 3 more
Abstract This study examines how the Subantarctic Front (SAF) in the South Indian Ocean (SIO) modulates storm track activity and the mean atmospheric circulation on interannual timescales, and elucidates the associated energy‐conversion pathways underlying midlatitude air–sea interactions. Based on 45 years (1979–2023) of ERA5 reanalysis, the SAF is identified from the meridional gradient of sea surface temperature (SST), and indices representing its intensity and latitudinal position are constructed. Lag‐regression analysis based on these new indices shows that anomalies in SAF intensity and position modulate lower‐tropospheric baroclinicity, thereby reorganizing the storm track activity. Diagnoses from the EAPE budget reveal that the dominant energy pathway follows the mean available potential energy (MAPE) to eddy available potential energy (EAPE) to eddy kinetic energy (EKE) sequence, highlighting the importance of baroclinic processes. In the EKE budget, barotropic conversion (from mean kinetic energy (MKE) to EKE) is weaker than baroclinic conversions in the mid‐to‐lower troposphere, but shows its clearest signature in the upper troposphere, consistent with the prominent upper‐level dynamical contribution diagnosed from the geopotential‐tendency framework. The accompanying equivalent‐barotropic mean‐flow adjustment is diagnosed to receive a leading contribution from the eddy vorticity flux forcing. These findings highlight the critical role of frontal variability in shaping the Southern Hemisphere storm track and large‐scale atmospheric circulation, providing new insight into midlatitude atmosphere–ocean coupling.
- Research Article
- 10.5194/wcd-7-475-2026
- Mar 9, 2026
- Weather and Climate Dynamics
- Chris Weijenborg + 1 more
Abstract. The swift succession of multiple extratropical cyclones during a short period of time is often associated with weather extremes and characterised by a strong atmospheric jet and enhanced baroclinicity. While several diagnostics exist to detect cyclone clustering, they mostly focus on regional assessments or rely on statistical measures that do not allow for a direct association with individual storms. Hence, we introduce a global detection for spatio-temporal clustering of extratropical cyclones, inspired by the original idea of cyclone families by Bjerknes and Solberg, in which individual cyclones follow a similar track. We further subdivide cyclone clusters into two types, a sequential type and a stagnant type. The former is associated with cyclones that follow each other over a minimum distance, whereas the stagnant type requires a proximity over time, while not moving much in space. We find that spatio-temporal cyclone clustering is most frequent along the storm tracks, with more cyclone clustering during winter compared to summer. The majority of cyclone clustering occurs just south of the main storm tracks in the Atlantic and Pacific basins. In the Southern Hemisphere, most cyclone clustering is found in the South-Indian Ocean. Sequential type cyclone clustering is associated with stronger cyclones compared to non-clustered cyclones, while for the stagnant type this intensity difference is less pronounced. This effect is strongest for the North Atlantic and North Pacific, while clustered cyclones in the South Indian Ocean are generally not much stronger. The cyclone intensity within the sequential type does not decrease during a cluster, while in contrast ensuing cyclones of the stagnant type are significantly weaker than the respective primary cyclone. This suggests that these two types of spatio-temporal cyclone clustering are dynamically different.
- Research Article
- 10.3390/rs18050735
- Feb 28, 2026
- Remote Sensing
- Chunzheng Kong + 3 more
Satellite altimetry technology provides along-track sea level anomaly (SLA) data for studying mesoscale eddies. However, accurately reconstructing their spatial structures from discrete and non-uniform along-track observations remains a significant challenge. This study systematically evaluates the performance of bi-quadratic, bi-cubic, and bi-quartic quasi-uniform B-spline surface fitting methods for mesoscale eddy reconstruction in the South Indian Ocean (60°S–30°S, 75°E–105°E). By combining idealized experiments with real satellite data, a comprehensive comparison is conducted across several dimensions, including fitting accuracy, computational efficiency, parameter robustness, error distribution, and the physical plausibility of derived vorticity fields. For SLA surface fitting, all three methods achieve comparable accuracy, but the bi-quadratic B-spline demonstrates marked advantages in computational efficiency. Its single-fit time is only 53% and 27% of that of the bi-cubic and bi-quartic methods, respectively, and it shows insensitivity to node configuration, highlighting its practicality. In contrast, vorticity field inversion, which relies on the second derivative of the fitted surface, requires higher-order continuity. Only the bi-quartic B-spline, with C3 continuity, produces physically credible and smooth vorticity fields, whereas lower-degree methods result in discontinuous or non-smooth fields. Based on these findings, this study proposes an application-oriented selection principle: the bi-quadratic B-spline is recommended for efficiency-focused tasks, such as eddy detection, while the bi-quartic B-spline is necessary for dynamic analyses involving vorticity.
- Research Article
- 10.1038/s41612-026-01330-x
- Jan 20, 2026
- npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
- Kai Zhao + 5 more
Changes in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency in a warming climate remain highly uncertain, with model simulations often yielding conflicting results. Here, through an analysis of 26 CMIP6 models under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, we project a decline in global TC frequency of 2–10% by the late 21st century. This decline is driven by an El Niño-like warming pattern, marked by amplified warming in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific, equatorial Atlantic, and North Indian Ocean. These non-uniform sea surface temperature (SST) trends weaken zonal SST gradients, suppressing the Walker circulation, and inducing Gill-type atmospheric responses to localized heating, in addition to an equatorward shift in the Intertropical Convergence Zone. These changes reduce upward motion across most basins, suppressing TC genesis. Additionally, radiative forcing reduces interhemispheric temperature contrasts, dampening the cross-equatorial Hadley circulation and further decreasing TC frequency, most notably in the South Indian Ocean. Our findings highlight the critical role of spatially heterogeneous SST warming in modulating TC activity and stress the need to reduce uncertainties in future SST projections. These insights advance the physical understanding of climate-driven TC projections and provide essential guidance for adaptation planning in vulnerable regions.
- Research Article
1
- 10.1038/s41561-025-01901-2
- Jan 1, 2026
- Nature Geoscience
- Shuzhuang Wu + 8 more
The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) plays a central role in regulating the global ocean circulation, climate and Antarctic Ice Sheet dynamics. Yet the spatiotemporal variability of the ACC during the Pleistocene remains poorly constrained. Here we reconstruct ACC flow-speed variation using a meridional transect of sediment cores from the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean. Our results reveal zonally asymmetric changes in ACC strength across the Southern Ocean on orbital timescales over the past one million years; the ACC intensified in the South Indian Ocean but weakened in the South Pacific during glacial and low-obliquity periods, with the opposite pattern during interglacial and high-obliquity periods. These anti-phased changes probably reflect an integrated response to bathymetric constraints, shifts in the Southern Hemisphere westerlies, sea-ice extent, buoyancy forcing and current confluence. Such zonally asymmetric and anti-phased ACC dynamics persisted during warmer-than-present intervals of the Pleistocene, offering a potential analogue for future anthropogenic warming—albeit under fundamentally different boundary conditions.
- Research Article
- 10.1016/j.quascirev.2025.109753
- Jan 1, 2026
- Quaternary Science Reviews
- Emeline Bellet + 18 more
Climatic variability in the Southern Hemisphere is largely controlled by the latitudinal position of the Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds (SHW), whose migration influences precipitation, temperature, and Antarctic upwelling. This study presents the results of analyses of two lacustrine sediment cores from Lake Armor, located on the subantarctic Kerguelen Islands (49°15′S, 69°10′E), within the SHW belt. Lipid biomarkers (Glycerol Dialkyl Glycerol Tetraethers, n- alkanes, and their hydrogen isotopes) were used to reconstruct mean annual air temperature above freezing (MAF) and humidity conditions. These records are compared with a high-resolution diatom-based summer sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction from marine core MD11-3353, situated 150 km southwest of Lake Armor. In the late glacial and Early Holocene, our results reveal a period of warm air temperature, comparable to current values and very warm sea surface temperature, 5 °C above the current values. Around 9000 cal a BP, an abrupt transition occurred, marked by a cooling of 5 °C in SST and 1.5 °C in MAF, interpreted as a northward migration of the SHW and associated oceanic fronts. The Mid-to-Late Holocene period is characterized by pronounced MAF variability, including a notably warm interval between 3000 and 2000 cal a BP, when n- alkane dD suggests the prevalence of wetter conditions. Since ∼250 cal a BP, a southward migration of the SHW has produced a 2.5 °C rise in MAF. Our findings are overall consistent with previous studies from the Indian Ocean, but permit us to go a step further as by comparing SSTs and air temperatures. This suggests that SST is not a reliable predictor of air temperature on the Kerguelen Islands, particularly during the Early Holocene. We hence argue that Kerguelen air temperature is predominantly controlled by the position of westerly winds, as an indicator of reorganisations in air mass trajectories. • First quantitative air temperature reconstruction in South Indian Ocean. • Strong consistency between biomarker results of two lacustrine sediments sequences. • Comparison between air and sea temperatures. • Atmospheric and oceanic systems not coupled on the Early Holocene. • Important cooling in SST and in air temperature at 9000 cal a BP.
- Research Article
- 10.1029/2025jd044558
- Dec 5, 2025
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
- Yulong Shan + 5 more
Abstract During the 2018 Southern Hemisphere winter, a pronounced surface air temperature positive anomaly occurred over East Antarctica, with Zhongshan Station recording its highest winter‐mean air temperature since 2007. Combining in situ observations, satellite remote sensing, and reanalysis data sets, this study diagnoses the temperature anomalies across representative isobaric surfaces (975, 500, and 300 hPa). Results indicate that this phenomenon originates from the disturbances of zonal wave, which in turn triggers anomalous regional sea‐ice‐atmosphere coupling processes. Specifically, this disturbance excited a persistent high‐pressure ridge or blocking high over the South Indian Ocean, and then directed poleward heat and moisture transport, dominating lower‐tropospheric temperature anomalies. Moreover, anomalous offshore winds induced by the pressure anomaly, combined with warm‐moist air mass intrusion, accelerated thermodynamic‐dynamic sea ice retreat, thereby enhancing upward sensible and latent heat fluxes from the ocean. In the mid‐to‐upper troposphere, anomalous subsidence driven by pressure perturbations caused warming primarily through vertical warm advection and adiabatic heating, with secondary contributions from horizontal advection. This study reveals a cross‐sphere coupled dynamic‐thermodynamic mechanism linking upper‐level zonal wave anomalies to Antarctic surface temperature extremes.
- Research Article
1
- 10.1016/j.dsr2.2025.105549
- Dec 1, 2025
- Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography
- Tanya A Marshall + 2 more
Remineralisation signals in the western South Indian Ocean thermocline: diagnosing local biogeochemical processes from nutrient stoichiometry
- Research Article
- 10.1029/2025gl118494
- Nov 19, 2025
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Wenping Jiang + 5 more
Abstract The Northwest Pacific anomalous anticyclone (NWPAC) links El Niño to East Asian summer climate, yet its response to global warming remains highly uncertain. Analyzing 48 CMIP5/6 models, this study identifies projected changes in Indo‐Pacific climatological circulation as key drivers of this uncertainty. Models with a stronger weakening of the Indo‐Pacific Walker circulation project deeper thermoclines in the southwest and shallower ones in the subtropical south Indian Ocean, along with a faster ENSO decay. These changes enhance Indian Ocean SST anomalies and strengthen the NWPAC through adjustments in thermocline–SST coupling and Indo‐Pacific air–sea interactions. In contrast, models with weaker circulation changes project reduced Indian Ocean SST anomaly warming and a weaker NWPAC. These findings highlight the Indo‐Pacific climatological wind changes, acting through thermocline–SST coupling and cross‐basin air‐sea interactions, play a critical role in driving intermodel uncertainty in projections of NWPAC and East Asian climate under global warming.
- Research Article
- 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108294
- Nov 1, 2025
- Atmospheric Research
- Jiazhe Duan + 6 more
Interdecadal shift in North Indian Ocean-South China Sea influence on the evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon from July to August
- Research Article
- 10.5194/essd-17-5641-2025
- Oct 27, 2025
- Earth System Science Data
- Don P Chambers + 6 more
Abstract. During the second half of 2022 and the first several months on 2023, a pair of Uncrewed Surface Vehicles (USVs) collected high-resolution (∼ 5 km sampling) measurements of ocean and atmosphere pCO2, air temperature and humidity, wind, ocean skin temperature, sea surface temperature, salinity, Chlorophyll α based on fluorescence, dissolved oxygen, and ocean current velocity between roughly 13.5 and 82° E and between the Subtropical Front (STF) and the Subantarctic Front (SAF). The mission track spanned from the Agulhas Return Current south of South Africa to the northern boundary of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current downstream of the Kerguelen Plateau. The primary goal of the mission was to collect data within cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies to quantify CO2 fluxes to better understand physical processes (upwelling and downwelling) that that can contribute to carbon cycling in addition to the biological pump. In this paper, we present an overview of the mission, details on the data collected, and a preliminary look at calculated surface pCO2, separated into cyclonic/anti-cyclonic/no-eddy conditions. The complete data set is available at https://doi.org/10.17632/9ymsjsyhhp.1 (Chambers et al., 2025c).
- Research Article
- 10.1080/09670262.2025.2568730
- Oct 2, 2025
- European Journal of Phycology
- Mamie Souadou Diop + 12 more
ABSTRACT Some Ulvophyceae are cryptic due to their morphological plasticity and lack of distinct traits. Consequently, molecular approaches such as DNA barcoding and metabarcoding are essential for accurate species discrimination. Large parts of the African coastline remain understudied in this respect. In this study, Ulvophyceae were collected from various substrates at 24 coastal sites along the Senegalese coast. DNA barcoding targeting the tufA gene and metabarcoding targeting the rbcL gene were applied to these samples. Most of the sequences obtained represented four species (Ulva lactuca, U. compressa, Codium decorticatum and C. isthmocladum) already reported in Senegalese species inventories. However, the molecular assessment also confirmed the presence of U. ohnoi (described from Japan), U. tepida (distributed in the Indo-Pacific), U. chaugulei (previously reported from India, Iran, Israel, China and Brazil), Chaetomorpha valida (described from Tasmania, Australia), and a specimen similar in rbcL sequence to several Ulva species originating from New Caledonia, French Polynesia, India and China, i.e. South Pacific, Indian Ocean and South China Sea. Additionally, the Mediterranean species Bryopsis muscosa has reached Senegal. Morphological identification also suggested the presence of Caulerpa chemnitzia var. turbinata and Caulerpa chemnitzia var. laetevirens in West Africa. The challenges of morphological identification, particularly for Ulvophyceae, are evident, emphasizing the necessity of molecular data for accurate species discrimination. The detection of previously unrecorded species raises questions about whether their presence in Senegal results from global change, such as climate shifts and increased maritime transport, or the limitations of past morphological inventories. Further investigations should focus on clarifying the taxonomy of key genera (Cladophora, Caulerpa, Bryopsis, Codium and Chaetomorpha) through broader sampling and the application of advanced molecular markers to better understand Senegal’s Ulvophyceae biodiversity and facilitate monitoring future changes in species composition due to environmental shifts or anthropogenic pressures.
- Research Article
- 10.1029/2025jc022742
- Oct 1, 2025
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
- M D Carr + 4 more
Abstract The Seychelles Chagos Thermocline Ridge (SCTR) is a biologically productive region within the tropical South Indian Ocean. The wind‐driven upwelling system is strongly impacted by westward propagating Rossby waves on interannual timescales; however, concomitant in situ biogeochemical observations of this process are scarce. Observations from two Biogeochemical Argo (BGC‐Argo) floats captured the interaction between a downwelling Rossby wave and the SCTR through 2023. Simultaneously a third BGC‐Argo not impacted by this interaction acted as a control. Easterly winds anomalies, typical of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, drove a downwelling Rossby wave deepening the thermocline and reducing chl‐a concentrations through the water column in the eastern extreme of the SCTR. The deepening of the thermocline allowed the warm, less saline waters from the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) to penetrate farther westward into the upwelling region. The low salinity of these waters is shown to play a dominant role in stratifying the water column, further preventing the entrainment of nutrients into the euphotic zone. Both the depression of the thermocline, through the Rossby wave interaction, and subsequent stratification of the water column, via the intrusion of ITF waters, resulted in a truncated phytoplankton surface bloom. Although the role of downwelling Rossby waves in suppressing upwelling is well described, the role of stratification, via ITF waters, in suppressing the chl‐a bloom is novel. Additional case studies were identified using reanalysis, satellite, and mooring data sets, confirming that the described salinity‐driven stratification is a recurrent process and may be associated with positive Indian Ocean Dipole events.
- Research Article
- 10.5194/acp-25-10949-2025
- Sep 23, 2025
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
- Jiyuan Gao + 4 more
Abstract. A substantial decline in anthropogenic aerosols in China has been observed since the initiation of clean air actions in 2013. This study reveals a linkage between aerosol reductions in China and drier and warmer conditions in Australia. Aerosol decline in China trigger alterations in temperature and pressure gradients between the two hemispheres, leading to intensified outflow from Asia towards the South Indian Ocean, strengthening the Southern Indian Subtropical High and its related Southern Trade Winds. Consequently, this atmospheric pattern results in a moisture divergence over Australia. The reduction in surface moisture further results in more surface energy being converted into sensible heat instead of evaporating as latent heat, warming the near-surface air. The intensified dry and warm climate conditions further cause the increase in wildfire risks during fire seasons in Australia. Our study illuminates the potential impact of distant aerosols on precipitation and temperature variations in Australia, offering valuable insights for drought and wildfire risk mitigation in Australia.
- Research Article
1
- 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0520.1
- Sep 15, 2025
- Journal of Climate
- Hao Wang + 5 more
Abstract Understanding decadal changes in monsoon rainfall is essential for mitigation policies in the next few decades, but comparatively less is known about the Southern Hemisphere monsoon. We find that decadal variations of the Southern Hemisphere land monsoon (SHLM) have a zonal dipole pattern with a significant periodicity of 10–15 years. This spatial pattern is characterized by wet southern African (SAF) monsoon and Australian monsoon (AUM) but a dry southeastern South American monsoon (SESAM). Moisture budget analysis shows that changes in monsoon circulation explain over 70% of the decadal variation. Tropical dynamics dominate the monsoon circulation change, and extratropical Rossby waves also have a contribution. The wet SAF and AUM but dry SESAM pattern is mainly driven by a tropical sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, specifically warm SST over the western Pacific and cold SST over the tropical Indian, central Pacific, and eastern Pacific Oceans. This gradient enhances the Walker circulation and subtropical highs over the South Indian and South Pacific Oceans, increasing moisture convergence over the SAF and AUM. The resultant Walker circulation change decreases ascending motion over the SESAM. The enhancement of AUM rainfall triggers the Pacific–South American pattern of the Rossby wave train, which propagates eastward along the SH subpolar jet, generating descending motion over the SESAM. The tropical and extratropical mechanisms are verified in a coupled climate model with nudged SST and a simplified model with artificial atmospheric heating imposed over eastern Australia, respectively. Our findings help unify the understanding of decadal variations of the regional monsoons and may add confidence for decadal prediction of SHLM changes in the following decades.
- Research Article
2
- 10.5194/acp-25-9645-2025
- Sep 1, 2025
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
- Koketso M Molepo + 12 more
Abstract. Air–sea exchange of gaseous elemental mercury (Hg0) is a major component of the global mercury (Hg) biogeochemical cycle but remains poorly understood due to sparse in situ measurements. Here, we used long-term atmospheric Hg0 (Hgair0) observations combined with air mass back trajectories at four ground-based monitoring sites to study Hg0 air–sea exchange. The trajectories showed that all four sites sample mainly marine air masses. At all sites, we observed a gradual increase in mean Hgair0 concentration with air mass recent residence time in the marine boundary layer (MBL), followed by a steady state. The pattern is consistent with the thin-film gas exchange model, which predicts net Hg0 emissions from the surface ocean until the Hgair0 concentration normalised by Henry's law constant matches the surface ocean dissolved Hg0 (Hgaq0) concentration. This provides strong evidence that ocean Hg0 emissions directly influence Hgair0 concentrations at these sites. Using the observed relationship between Hgair0 concentrations and air mass recent MBL residence time, we estimated mean surface ocean Hgaq0 concentrations of 4–7 pg L−1 for the North Atlantic and Arctic oceans (AA) and 4 pg L−1 for the Southern, South Atlantic and south Indian oceans (SSI). Estimated ocean Hg0 emission fluxes ranged between 0.57–0.86 and 0.60–0.87 ngm-2h-1 for the AA and SSI, respectively, with a global extrapolated mean flux of around 2270 t yr−1 (1600–2900 t yr−1). This study demonstrates the applicability of long-term, ground-based Hgair0 observations in constraining Hg0 air–sea exchange.
- Research Article
- 10.1029/2025gc012314
- Sep 1, 2025
- Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems
- Erika Tanaka + 5 more
Abstract During the Paleogene, Earth experienced a significant transition from a hot to a cold climate, or from a “Hothouse” to a “Coolhouse.” In the warm early Paleogene, the oceanic environment lacked a large polar ice sheet and had a reduced equator‐to‐pole sea‐surface temperature gradient. Large‐scale tectonic events occurred in the high‐latitude South Pacific during this period, such as the northward movement of Zealandia away from the Antarctic continent, the deepening of the Tasman Sea accompanied by seafloor spreading, and the opening of the Tasman Gateway. However, variations in oceanic circulation and depositional environments in the high‐latitude South Pacific associated with global climate change or tectonic settings during the Paleogene have not been fully characterized. Here, we report the chemical compositions and Sr‐Nd isotopic ratios of carbonate fractions and bulk sediments from International Ocean Discovery Program Site U1553. The rare earth element patterns and Sr isotopes of the samples suggest that, since 62 Ma, Site U1553 was located in the open ocean rather than on continental shelves or margins. Leachate Nd isotopic data indicate that intermediate water from the South Indian Ocean flowed north of Australia and onto the Campbell Plateau throughout the Eocene, probably via the proto‐Eastern Australian Current (Eastern Australian Current) since 52 Ma. This circulation pattern was likely linked to the opening and deepening of the Tasman Sea. Seawater around the Campbell Plateau had the low εNd values during the Eocene, which may have contributed to the development of an εNd gradient between the South and North Pacific Oceans.
- Research Article
- 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0416.1
- Aug 15, 2025
- Journal of Climate
- Zachary F Johnson + 4 more
Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) seasonal landfall probability is challenging to forecast because of the limited seasonal predictability of steering flow patterns. Past studies mainly focus on the large-scale ocean and atmospheric conditions that lead to changes in seasonal tropical cyclone genesis frequency in a given basin, but less attention has focused on seasonal landfall probability inherent to changes in steering flow patterns linked to subtropical highs (STHs). Here, we examine SST anomaly patterns that control variability in summertime STH cells in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. We link those ocean impacts to changes in early season TC landfall probability in the western North Pacific, North Atlantic, and south Indian Ocean Basins. STHs in the North Pacific, North Atlantic, and south Indian Ocean exhibit increased variability on their western peripheries linked to anomalous zonal SST gradients. In the Northern Hemisphere, an interbasin zonal contrast in SST anomalies fosters a westward extension in both North Pacific and North Atlantic STHs. As a result, TCs curve around STHs ∼6° in longitude farther west in the western North Pacific basin. In contrast, the Atlantic basin had the opposite effect due to minimal TC activity over the tropical Atlantic from inhibiting SST anomalies. The south Indian Ocean had a 9% increase in landfall probability for TCs that formed in the western half of the southern Indian Ocean during a positive localized SST dipole. The seasonal persistence of Southern Hemispheric STHs resembles aquaplanet simulations of STHs, in contrast to the seasonal evolution observed in their Northern Hemispheric counterparts.
- Research Article
- 10.5194/cp-21-1383-2025
- Jul 31, 2025
- Climate of the Past
- Karl Purcell + 5 more
Abstract. During the late Quaternary, the climatic conditions in southern South Africa experienced significant fluctuations, notably in temperatures and precipitation. These fluctuations were related to changes in the atmospheric and oceanic circulation systems from the subtropics and mid-latitudes, which are themselves affected by changes in orbital parameters. At the same time, this region preserves some of the most abundant Middle Stone Age (MSA) archaeological sites containing records of Homo sapiens behavioural and technological evolution. Consequently, there is a pressing need for precise climatic reconstructions that can provide climate constraints for the region's MSA record. However, there is a lack of continuous high-resolution climate records covering the majority of the MSA period, which spans ∼300 to ∼40 ka. In this study, we present data obtained from a marine sediment core (MD20-3592) that spans approximately the last 260 000 years (from marine isotope stages (MISs) 8 to 1) aiming to expand the spatial and temporal coverage of available climate archives in this region (including sediment cores, speleothems and hyrax middens). This marine sediment core documents both terrestrial hydroclimate and ocean variability because it is strategically positioned close to the South African coastline receiving terrestrial sediments via riverine input as well as being located under the marine influence of the Agulhas Current at the same time. X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning, calibrated with discrete samples analysed by XRF spectroscopy, was used to determine the variability in the bulk elemental composition of the core over time. Spectral analyses reveal that the regional hydroclimate was mostly affected by local insolation changes caused by orbital precession and high-latitude forcing that varies on timescales associated with orbital obliquity and eccentricity. Increased fluvial input was associated with high local insolation due to the effects of precession on local convergence and seasonal rainfall. Comparison with other regional climate archives as mentioned confirmed the dominant influence of precession on precipitation in southern South Africa. On glacial–interglacial timescales, lower precipitation observed during glacial intervals could be explained by a northward shift in the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies (SHW) and South Indian Ocean Convergence Zone (SIOCZ). Finally, the data from core MD20-3592 can provide a climatic context for archaeological evidence in South Africa during the MSA.