Socio-economic Changes Research Articles

Navigating and attributing uncertainty in future tropical cyclone risk estimates.

Future tropical cyclone risks will evolve with climate change and socioeconomic development, entailing substantial uncertainties. An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of these risks is vital, yet the chosen model setup influences outcomes. This study investigates how much future tropical cyclone risks are driven by climate and socioeconomic changes, quantifies uncertainty from propagating alternate representations of these systems through the risk modeling chain, and evaluates how strongly each model input contributes to output uncertainty. By comparing these three elements-drivers, uncertainty, and sensitivity-across four distinct tropical cyclone models, we derive findings generalizable beyond individual model setups. We find that average tropical cyclone risk will increase 1 to 5% by 2050 globally, with maximum increases ranging from 10 to 400% by 2100, depending on tropical cyclone model choice, region, and risk model inputs, while the dominant source of uncertainty shifts with modeling choices. Last, we differentiate between aleatory, epistemic, and normative uncertainties, offering guidance to reduce them and inform better decision-making.

Emerging Trends in Livelihood Diversification in Rural Communities: A Bibliometric and Systematic Review

Livelihood diversification has become an important avenue for rural people to build resilience, alleviate poverty, and adjust to socio-economic and environmental changes. The trend is part of a broader change in rural economies, in which diversification has become a way to spread risk, smooth incomes, and enhance well-being. This study examined the idea of Livelihood Diversification in Rural Communities by conducting a thorough Systematic Literature Review and bibliometric Analysis. This study uses a combined systematic literature review and bibliometric analysis of 318 Scopus-indexed publications published between 2014 and 2024 to examine livelihood diversification in rural areas. VOSviewer and R-based Biblioshiny software were used to analyze the articles, which show a 5.07% yearly growth rate and an average of 19.08 citations per document. With 18,548 references, the collection demonstrated the depth of research in this area. One of the most important discoveries is that academics increasingly work together internationally; 37.74% of articles include international co-authorship. The research also emphasizes how the word "Climate Change" is becoming increasingly common in the literature, indicating the growing impact of climate change. Leading countries in the topic include the USA, Australia, and India; notable periodicals in this area include the Journal of Rural Studies, Sustainability (Switzerland), and Climate and Development. According to network analysis, "livelihood" is a key idea that is linked to concepts like "food security," "rural development," and "economic development." The study concluded that while much progress has been made in understanding diversification's drivers, strategies, and outcomes, there are still key research gaps, particularly around the need to address the complexities of different rural contexts, the role of intersectional factors, and the long-term impacts of livelihood strategies. The project intends to use these insights to guide evidence-based policy actions that support equitable and sustainable development in rural regions.

Determinants of Work Family Conflict: Studying Gender Ratio as a Significant Predictor

The increase in the number of dual-earner couples and multi-workers is resulting in socio-economic changes which ultimately trigger the change in lifestyle of the people. Shortage of time to accomplish family and work-related jobs is reported as a common source of conflict causing stress and resulting in health and family functioning issues. The phenomenon of Work-Family Conflict (WFC) is therefore becoming a prevalent research area for scholars concerned with human resource management. This study has examined appropriate data for studying the mediated and moderated mechanism of the determinants of WFC. Gender Ratios in Family (GRF) and Time Management (TM) have been studied as antecedents of Time-based Work Family Conflict (TWFC). The direct impact of GRF on TWFC, mediation and moderation impact of TM on the relationship between GRF and TWFC has been studied in this research. The population of this study is the employees working in public sector organizations of Pakistan. Cross-sectional research design has been used with a sample size of 150 respondents. The study establishes that GRF has a significant impact on TWFC whereas the mediation and moderation impact of TM on said relationship was not found significant.

Changes in the spectrum of kidney diseases: a 14-year single-center retrospective renal biopsy study from southeast China.

Kidney disease has become a significant public health issue. Socioeconomic improvements and environmental changes in China have influenced the kidney disease spectrum. This study aims to examine the changing spectrum of biopsy-confirmed kidney diseases in a single center from southeastern China and explore their clinical-pathological correlations. Patients who underwent renal biopsy at the First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University from January 2010 to December 2023 were included in this retrospective study. Clinicopathological data were collected and analyzed. 2,832 patients were enrolled. Primary glomerular diseases accounted for the majority of kidney diseases (69.0%), followed by secondary glomerular diseases, tubulointerstitial diseases, and others. Among primary glomerular diseases, membranous nephropathy (MN) was the most prevalent (34.9%), followed closely by IgA nephropathy (IgAN) (34.5%) and minimal change disease (18.5%), with an increasing trend for MN. For secondary glomerular diseases, lupus nephritis (34.3%), diabetic nephropathy (DN) (24.8%), and hepatitis B virus-associated nephropathy (HBVN) (9.0%) were the most common. HBVN showed a significant decrease, while DN increased annually. Nephrotic syndrome (NS) was the most frequent indication for renal biopsy (40.3%), followed by progressive chronic kidney disease (22.4%). MN (47.2%) was the leading pathology in NS, and IgAN (51.6%) was predominant in patients with proteinuria and hematuria. The spectrum of kidney disease has changed within the last 14 years. The relative frequency of MN and DN increased significantly, while that of HBVN decreased significantly. These findings highlight the need for ongoing public health efforts tailored to the changing spectrum of kidney diseases.

‘We are all Pana here, but there are no real Pana left’: language in cultural adaptation in the Laos-China border area

ABSTRACT Speakers of Pana, a small Tibeto-Burman language of the Lao-China border area, have created a linguistic ecology in which Pana, Khmu and Lue/Lao co-occupy a position of prestige and power. These three languages co-constitute the cultural space of the village, where a key linguistic ideology heard is the essential role multilingualism plays in the continuation of this ‘Pana’ community. Upland people in Southeast Asia are often understood to occupy liminal spaces between imagined Sinosphere and Indosphere. The Pana experience points to the existence of a local Khmusphere within which a multilingual Pana people reproduce a cultural-linguistic niche as rapid and profound socio-economic changes transform the natural and social landscapes in which the Pana live. It is this intensive recent history of multilingualism that has enabled the Pana to adapt to the multiple pressures felt by small ethnolinguistic communities as national policy and the regional economy drive these rapid social-ecological transformations.

Effects of Technical, Socio-Economic, and Environmental Changes on the Richness of Fruit Germplasm in Northern Sicily, Italy

This study examines the changes that have occurred in the specific and varietal composition of fruit trees in one of the world’s most famous agricultural areas, the Conca d’Oro, a plain surrounding Palermo (Sicily, Italy). Changes in specific and varietal composition over the centuries are the result of endogenous changes to the orchards (e.g., the spread of cultivation techniques such as irrigation or the introduction of new species and varieties), social and economic changes (e.g., the development of citrus farming in response to the demand from citrus markets). The disappearance of traditional germplasm is a complex phenomenon due to the changes occurring since the middle of the last century in the agricultural system. The more recent changes occur, unfortunately, mainly due to the expansion of the city, which has erased many orchards and vegetable gardens, but also due to the loss of the emotional, economic, and social value of orchards. The protection of this germplasm becomes indispensable in a period of climate change that, among other things, reduces the effectiveness of agrochemicals. Some germplasm protection and product enhancement initiatives are currently in place in this area and can be applied in other fruit-growing areas as well.

Spatial Effects in the Context of Kazakhstan’s Regions

The problem of spatial inequality in the regions of Kazakhstan has been relevant for many years and in recent years this problem has worsened due to socio-economic changes in the areas, the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, the negative impact of inflationary processes, increased internal migration and other factors. The purpose of this study is to analyze spatial inequality between 16 regions of Kazakhstan covering the period from 2001 to 2017. The following scientific methods were used in the study: historical method, and statistical method. During the research, a new class of spatial econometric models was developed, which are modifications of the Durbin spatial model. These models are characterized by variable coefficients with spatial lags of the dependent and independent variables. The models were evaluated based on information about Kazakhstan’s regions, using the regional gross domestic product per capita as a dependent variable. The findings of the study show the advantages of the SDM model with fixed effects compared to alternative models, which is confirmed by the results of the assessment using the criteria of the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayes (BIC). According to the SDM model, a 1% increase in gross regional product per capita in the base year leads to an increase in the growth rate of gross regional product per capita, all other things being equal. It is also worth noting that an increase in the unemployment rate by 1% contributes to an acceleration in the growth rate of the gross regional product per capita by 0.451, all other things being equal. An increase in government spending per unit in the region contributes to a decrease in the growth rate of the gross regional product per capita in the neighboring region, all other things being equal. The spatial lag coefficient indicates that changes in the indicators of the domestic regional product per capita in one region have an impact on changes in the domestic regional product per capita in the neighboring region. The results of the study indicate the need to use spatial weights when evaluating regional regression models.

Socioeconomic factors behind the relationship between urban expansion and ecosystem services: a multiscale study in China

ContextA deeper understanding of the relationship between urban expansion and ecosystem services (RUE&ESs) is closely linked to achieving sustainable development goals and enhancing human well-being. Socioeconomic factors play an important role in the relationship, but how they have an impact at different spatial scales remains unclear.ObjectivesThe objectives of our study are to clarify the influence of socioeconomic factors on the RUE&ESs and identify key influencing factors at different scales.MethodsWe constructed a multiscale analytical framework, and by combining the correlation analysis, partial correlation analysis, and Geodetector model, we quantified the differences in the effects of socioeconomic factors on the relationship at three scales of province, urban agglomeration, and county in China.ResultsThe results indicate that the influence of socioeconomic factors on RUE&ESs can be either enhancing or weakening, depending on the ES types. Moreover, the key socioeconomic factor at different scales also varies. The interaction of socioeconomic factors with urban expansion considerably increases their explanatory power for ESs compared to single factors, suggesting that socioeconomic factors mainly acted on ESs changes indirectly through urban expansion. Moreover, clear administrative boundaries can affect the relationship between socioeconomic development, urban expansion, and ESs.ConclusionsThe findings highlight that linking socioeconomic, urban expansion, and ES changes at multiple scales can provide multi-level guidance for landscape management and planning-related sustainable development decisions.

Laboratory Testing of Resilience Effects of Water Microgrids for Sustainable Water Supply

Traditional centralized water systems are facing sustainability challenges due to climate and socioeconomic changes, extreme weather events, and aging infrastructure and their uncertainties. The energy sector has addressed similar challenges using the microgrid approach, which involves decentralized energy sources and their supply, improving system resilience and sustainable energy supply. This study investigated the resilience effects of water microgrids, which feature operational interactions between centralized and local systems for sustainable water supply. A lab-scale water distribution model was tested to demonstrate centralized, decentralized, and microgrid water systems under the disruption scenarios of pump shutdown, pump rate manipulation, and pipe leaks/bursts. The water microgrids integrate centralized and local systems’ operations, while the decentralized system operates independently. Then, functionality-based resilience and its attributes were evaluated for each disruption scenario. The results reveal that, overall, the microgrid configuration, with increased water supply redundancy and flexible operational adjustment based on system conditions, showed higher resilience, robustness, and recovery rate and a lower loss rate across disruption scenarios. The resilience effect of water microgrids was more evident with longer and more severe disruptions. Considering global challenges in water security under climate and socioeconomic changes, the findings suggest insights into a hybrid water system as a strategy to enhance resilience and water use efficiency and provide adaptive operations for sustainable water supply.

THE PROBLEM OF THE INFLUENCE OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE ON ACCELERATION OF LABOR MOBILITY IN SOUTH AMERICA (ARGENTINA, BOLIVIA, CHILE)

South America continues to experience major socioeconomic changes that are influencing global trends. They are caused by the need for a global transition to environmental and alternative energy technologies. South America’s mineral resources are important to the region, driving major changes in the region’s labor market. Instability and imbalances in the labor market have an impact on accelerating labor mobility.The relevance of this study is to try to explain the factors of increased internal migration within South American countries and a decrease in population in metropolitan cities. The purpose of the study is to clarify the role of technological and industrial development on labor mobility in Latin America. The subject is the growing influence of demand for mineral resources on deurbanization and labor mobility.To determine the impact of the role of industry on labor mobility the authors used the data on personnel movements in 2022–2023 and salary changes from 2022 to 2024. For this purpose, a method of comparative analysis of economic and statistical indicators on labor movements was applied, which allows us to understand how salaries in industry can affect the personnel migration movements. The author came to the conclusion that technological changes have a major impact on migration processes in South America. The need to develop and extract new minerals and increase the scale of extraction of unexplored ones is becoming a factor in wage growth in this sector, which contributes to an increase in the movement of labor.

International Migration, Goan Diaspora andthe Caste Dynamics in Goa: A StructurationApproach

The Goan Diaspora emerges out international migration, which is a three hundred year old phenomenon. The birth of the Goan Diaspora is centered around the socio-economic changes brought about in ‘Goa’ due to the process of Portuguese Colonization for 451 years. The colonization of Goa contributed to the disruption of the ganvkari and caste system. However, the upper caste continued with their hegemony for the entire period of Portuguese rule. In this paper a humble attempt is being made to present the role of Goan Diaspora in the upward social mobility of the left-behind family members. This is made possible due to the socio-economic linkages of the Goan diaspora with the sending society. We would like to present the upward social mobility as a dialectic process that contributes to the structuration of the caste structured society in to a class structured one, thereby leading to a new structure of the village. The paper findings are based on interviews with twenty four respondents and participant observation undertaken for a period of thirty months in three villages i.e Assolna, Velim and Cuncolim in Goa. The entire process of change from caste based society to a class based society is showcased through the emergence of ‘dominant class’. The ‘Dominant class’ which comprises of the ‘diasporic’ households, influences the rest of the Christian households with reference to the seven hallmarks, it is these seven hallmarks that contribute to the motivation to migrate, thereby resulting in a culture of migration in AVC. The culture of migration is a duality centered around the agency and agents thereby resulting in the transformation of caste structure to class structure. The analytical framework is based on Anthony Gidden’s Structuration theory.

The 2018–2023 drought in Berlin: impacts and analysis of the perspective of water resources management

Abstract. The years 2018 to 2023 were characterised by extreme hydrometeorological conditions, with record-high average annual air temperatures and record-low annual precipitation across large regions of Europe. Berlin, the capital of Germany, is potentially vulnerable to drought conditions due to its location in a relatively dry region with relatively high water demand and complex water resources management in the Spree and Obere Havel catchments. To address the impacts of the 2018–2023 drought, various water resources management measures were implemented in Berlin and in the Spree and Obere Havel catchments. As a case study of how droughts impact large cities, we analysed observed and modelled time series of hydrometeorological, hydrogeological, and hydrological variables in Berlin and the Spree and Obere Havel catchments to characterise the years 2018–2023 in comparison with long-term averages. We found that the meteorological drought propagated into soil moisture drought and hydrological drought, e.g. in terms of record-low groundwater and surface water levels and streamflow, with smaller rivers drying up. Due to the intensity and duration of the drought, water resources management was only able to partially counteract the drought situation, so water use was partially limited, e.g. in terms of shipping. Enhanced proportions of sewage water and reverse flow were associated with detectable concentrations of trace substances. However, Berlin's water supply was always guaranteed and represents a stable system. Climate change is expected to lead to more frequent meteorological droughts, which will have more severe hydrological impacts in the future due to socioeconomic changes in Berlin (increasing population) and the catchments (termination of mining discharges). Therefore, water resources management in Berlin and in the Spree and Obere Havel catchments needs to be adapted to combat such situations, taking into account the lessons learned from the 2018–2023 drought and possible future developments. This integrative and multidisciplinary study can help better assess drought impacts in the Berlin–Brandenburg region and guide water management planning under potentially drier conditions. We suggest that the integrative approach presented here can be transferred and adapted to study drought impacts on other large cities.

Von Thunen Revisited? An Econometric Analysis of Metropolitan Expansion and Land-Use Change in Greece

Abstract With settlement morphology increasingly tied with socioeconomic change in contemporary urban systems, the present study introduces an original statistical approach to analyze metropolitan growth as a result of the intrinsic transformations in the respective spatial structure and productive functions. The analysis specifically evaluates territorial transformations over a thirty-year time interval using land-use parcels as fundamental analysis’ unit and Multi-scale Geographically Weighted Regressions (MGWRs) as the statistical technique applied to metropolitan Athens, Greece—a densely populated region facing intensified human pressure along the fringe. To investigate spatial direction and model the intensity of settlement expansion vis à vis landscape change, we run local regressions with parcel area and fractal index as dependent variables separately for 1990 and 2018 on three aggregate land-use classes (urbanized, agricultural, forest/natural). Elevation, distance from selected economic nodes, infrastructures and services, distance from the city center and business district, as well as the economic status of the territory surrounding each parcel, were taken as predictors of both dependent variables. In a strictly mono-centric setting, parcel area exhibited linear dependence on the distance from city centers; a progressive departure from this relationship intensified with economic and non-economic drivers indicating urban sprawl. This approach—integrating economic and ecological dimensions of landscape analysis—helps elucidate the underlying mechanisms of metropolitan expansion within dynamic spatial equilibriums and concentric land-use models à la Von Thunen. Ultimately, the study presents new perspectives on the factors behind metropolitan growth, highlighting the need for socio-demographic and planning policies oriented toward sustainability and regional competitiveness. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear on-line.

Psychosocial Strengths and Resilience Among Sexual and Gender Minority Youth Experiencing Homelessness: A Scoping Review

Youth (ages 13–25) who identify as sexual and gender minorities (SGMs) are at elevated risk for becoming homeless and for worsening psychosocial and physical health while experiencing homelessness. Although the risks for this group are clear, relatively little is known about the internal assets and external resources that foster resilience. In this scoping review, we synthesized existing research on SGM youth experiencing homelessness using the Resilience Portfolio model. We searched PsycINFO, PubMed, ProQuest Dissertations and Theses, and Social Science Citation Index, locating 41 empirical articles on psychosocial strengths and resilience among this population. Through a careful data extraction process, we identified strengths across all three Resilience Portfolio domains. Important regulatory strengths for SGM youth experiencing homelessness included psychological endurance, self-efficacy, and psychological acceptance. Among interpersonal strengths, the most widely endorsed source of social support was identity-affirming “chosen families.” Informal informational networks and tailored comprehensive services were key resources among youth’s broader social ecologies. Youth cultivated meaning by expressing authentic identities, maintaining hope, resisting oppression, and defining their own beliefs. Overall, the existing research base primarily consists of small qualitative studies. Existing quantitative studies suffered from several methodological limitations, such as cross-sectional analyses and poor measurement of resilience. We discuss several implications for future research, particularly a need for larger-scale, longitudinal studies measuring multiple strengths and their associations with resilient outcomes. We also make recommendations for practice and policy, including youth-serving programs, child welfare system reform, and broader socioeconomic changes needed to end homelessness.

Dataset on the patterns of livelihood diversification in farming systems of the Eastern Gangetic Plains of South Asia.

Dataset on the patterns of livelihood diversification in farming systems of the Eastern Gangetic Plains of South Asia.

Ageing, migration and grandparenting in China

The conventional view of older migrants in relation to care often perceives them as passive recipients who are inactive and vulnerable. This study, based on a multi-site qualitative study in contemporary China, sheds light on the experiences of a marginalised group of older people providing care for grandchildren against the backdrop of radical policy shifts in family planning (with the one-child policy replaced by a two-child policy and subsequently a three-child policy) alongside socioeconomic changes associated with urbanisation. We argue that older people, particularly those in better socioeconomic positions, play an active role in the decision-making process of migration and care provision for their migrant children. This involvement occurs in diverse ways and within different social milieus. Chinese migrant families adapt quickly and mobilise resources within the family to maximise the utility of the younger generations. Through this process, intergenerational solidarity may have been strengthened, but at the expense of older generations’ wellbeing. There is a possibility that urbanisation will further reinforce the vulnerability and marginalisation of older women of rural origin, exacerbating their social exclusion. Urgent attention is needed to address the intersectional exclusion and vulnerability of migrant grandparents, considering factors such as gender, social class and patriarchy. It is essential to recognise their significant contributions to the family, community and society, particularly in the context of unpaid care work during the era of the three-child policy.

Challenges and opportunities in climate risk assessment: future directions for assessing complex climate risks

Abstract As climate change impacts intensify worldwide, assessing climate risks comprehensively is essential for guiding effective disaster risk management and adaptation strategies. This systematic literature review examines the latest developments in Climate Risk Assessment (CRA), focusing on how climate risks are framed and assessed. It explores advancements, ongoing challenges, and emerging opportunities to guide future generations of CRAs. Key findings highlight a more nuanced risk framework that incorporates climate responses, modulating the three risk determinants (exposure, vulnerability, and hazards), as outlined in the latest IPCC assessment. The state-of-the-art concentrates on the temporal and spatial characteristics of hazards, while exposure and vulnerability are increasingly understood as dynamic concepts influenced by socioeconomic changes. Recent developments, such as multi-hazard approaches, risk tolerance integration, and the concept of Climatic Impact-Drivers, provide new perspectives on assessing climate risks. However, managing complexity and uncertainty remain the main operational challenges, underscoring the need for improved CRA methodologies and models, as well as consistent, interoperable datasets. The paper discusses avenues to advance CRA, emphasizing the importance of bridging the gap between academic advancements and practical implementation. Conceptual recommendations include adopting a systemic approach to, for example, better account for the cascading and compounding risks, hazard thresholds, adaptation limits, and risk amplifiers, as well as using storylines to improve CRA communication. Technical recommendations include leveraging emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, machine learning methods and big data analytics to improve real-time risk prediction and modelling. To enhance the CRA practice, the study advocates for greater stakeholder involvement and inclusive governance to ensure that CRAs remain context-specific and relevant. These recommendations, together with strengthened interdisciplinary collaboration and knowledge-sharing, are expected to pave the way for more effective climate risk management, adaptation, and resilience-building strategies.

HOW TO BECOME VALUE-ORIENTED? BRINGING ABOUT CHANGES THROUGH EDUCATIONAL INNOVATION

In the age of artificial intelligence, dynamic socio-economic changes, the traditional education model may seem increasingly outdated. How do we change the face of education so that school is a space full of joy, creative discovery, and critical thinking? A holistic approach that goes beyond encyclopaedic knowledge to integrate intellectual, emotional, and social development may be the prescription. The K'IDS programme proposed by the Holistic Think Tank sets an inspiring direction for educational change.

THE FORMATION OF THE CONCEPT OF GOOD FAITH IN ROMAN LAW

The article examines the evolution of the concept of good faith in the Roman legal system, starting with its origins in ancient legal monuments and ending with its integration into modern legal mechanisms. The author notes that formalism prevailed in the early stages of Roman law, but with the development of economics and trade relations, it became necessary to take into account the actual circumstances and intentions of the parties. The praetorian practice has played a key role in protecting good faith by introducing flexible dispute resolution mechanisms and "bonitarian property" protection options. Important aspects of good faith are analyzed in the context of property and obligation law, as well as inheritance and tort law. Attention is paid to the differences between bona fide and unscrupulous owners, as well as the legal consequences of bona fide ownership. The work also highlights the dual nature of good faith, presented as an objective standard and subjective certainty, which allowed for the formation of universal principles applicable in European law. In conclusion, it is emphasized that Roman law has become the basis for a modern understanding of good faith, demonstrating the ability of law to adapt to socio-economic changes while maintaining a balance between stability and justice

Sustainable airline company selection using SWARA Weighted VIKOR and COPRAS methods

Global climate crisis necessitates all countries to swiftly and agilely conduct their economic activities in accordance with green sensitivity and sustainability principles. The aviation sector, one of the industries most affected by socio-economic and socio-cultural changes worldwide, cannot avoid this trend. Consequently, significant studies exist in the literature on the effects of the global climate crisis and sustainability efforts in the aviation sector. This study aims to measure the approaches of the world's leading international air cargo companies to the 2030 and 2050 European Green Deal targets. Among the criteria weighted using the SWARA method are 'carbon dioxide emissions,' 'energy consumption,' 'employment,' and 'water consumption.' The results indicate that the most critical criterion for airline sustainability is reducing CO2 emissions, followed by reducing energy consumption. Water consumption reduction ranks third, and employment ranks last in terms of importance. The study examines air cargo companies ranked in the top 10 globally by revenue and ranks them using the VIKOR and COPRAS methods. According to data from 2021, Korean Air, Turkish Airlines, and Cathay Pacific emerge as the top performers in sustainability among air cargo companies, while Cargolux and UPS lag behind others in their sustainability efforts when evaluated using VIKOR and COPRAS methods.