Society Of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk Of Mortality Research Articles

Risk Factors and Operative Risk of Large Vessel Occlusion and Stroke during Cardiac Surgery

Perioperative Large Vessel Occlusions (LVOs) occurring during and following surgery are of immense clinical importance. As such, we aim to present risk factors and test if the Society of Thoracic Surgery (STS) mortality and stroke risk scores can be used to assess operative risk. Using data containing 7 index cardiac operations at a single tertiary referral center from 2010 to 2022, logistic and multivariate regression analysis was performed to identify factors that correlate to higher operative LVO and stroke rate. Odds ratios and confidence intervals were also obtained to test if the STS-Predicted Risk of Mortality (PROM) and -Predicted Risk of Stroke (PROS) scores were positively correlated to operative LVO and stroke rate. Multivariate modeling showed primary risk factors for an operative LVO were diabetes (OR: 1.727 [95 % CI: 1.060-2.815]), intracranial or extracranial carotid stenosis (OR: 3.661 [95 % CI: 2.126-6.305]), and heart failure as defined by NYHA class (Class 4, OR: 3.951 [95 % CI: 2.092-7.461]; compared to Class 1). As the STS-PROM increased, the relative rate of LVO occurrence increased (very high risk, OR: 6.576 [95 % CI: 2.92-14.812], high risk, OR: 2.667 [1.125-6.322], medium risk, OR: 2.858 [1.594-5.125]; all compared to low risk). STS-PROS quartiles showed a similar relation with LVO risk (quartile 4, OR: 7.768 [95 % CI: 2.740-22.027], quartile 3, OR: 5.249 [1.800-15.306], quartile 2, OR:2.980 [0.960-9.248]; all compared to quartile 1). Patients with diabetes, carotid disease and heart failure are at high risk for operative LVO. Both STS-PROM and -PROS can be useful metrics for preoperative measuring of LVO risks.

Assessing the impact of socioeconomic distress on hospital readmissions after cardiac surgery

BackgroundThe impact of socioeconomic distress on readmission rates following cardiac surgery has not been studied. We hypothesized that patients living in distressed communities would have a higher 30-day readmission rate after cardiac surgery compared to those living in less distressed communities. MethodsPatients undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) between 2016 and 2023 within a regional collaborative were identified. The Distressed Communities Index (DCI) and Area Deprivation Index (ADI) were used to measure socioeconomic distress. Two logistic regression models were performed to evaluate 30-day readmission rates: one incorporating ADI and the other including DCI. Models were adjusted for the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Predicted Risk of Mortality (PROM) score, postoperative complications, length of stay (LOS), year of surgery, and discharge disposition. ResultsA total of 16,369 patients were included, of whom 10% were readmitted within 30 days of discharge. Readmitted patients were more likely to be female (32% vs 23.3%) and to develop postoperative complications (47% vs 35%) and less likely to be discharged to home (70.6% vs 83.5%; P < .001 for all). On multivariable analysis, STS PROM score, postoperative complications, prolonged LOS, and discharge to a facility or leaving against medical advice were predictive of higher readmission rates. Socioeconomic distress was not an independent predictor of readmission in the model that used DCI (odds ratio [OR], 0.93; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.76-1.15) or in the model that used ADI (OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 0.83-1.64). ConclusionsIn patients undergoing CABG, increasing socioeconomic distress does not predict higher 30-day readmission rate. Other factors, such as discharge location, have a greater impact on readmission rate.

Safety and feasibility of early discharge after transcatheter aortic valve implantation with ACURATE Neo-the POLESTAR trial.

Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) serves a growing range of patients with severe aortic stenosis (AS). TAVI has evolved to a streamlined procedure minimizing length of hospital stay. To evaluate the safety and efficacy of an early discharge (ED) strategy after TAVI. We performed an international, multi-center, prospective observational single-arm study in AS patients undergoing TAVI with the ACURATE valve platform. Eligibility for ED was assessed prior to TAVI and based on prespecified selection criteria. Discharge ≤ 48h was defined as ED. Primary Valve Academic Research Consortium (VARC)-3-defined 30-day safety and efficacy composite endpoints were landmarked at 48h and compared between ED and non-ED groups. A total of 252 patients were included. The median age was 82 [25th-75th percentile, 78-85] years and the median Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality (STS-PROM) score was 2.2% [25th-75th percentile, 1.6-3.3]. ED and non-ED were achieved in 173 (69%) and 79 (31%) patients respectively. Monitoring for conduction disturbances was the principal reason for non-ED (33%). Overall, at 30days, all-cause mortality was 1%, new permanent pacemaker rate was 4%, and valve- or procedure-related rehospitalization was 4%. There was no difference in the primary safety and efficacy endpoint between the ED and non-ED cohorts (OR 0.84 [25th-75th percentile, 0.31-2.26], p = 0.73, and OR 0.97 [25th-75th percentile, 0.46-2.06], p = 0.94). The need for rehospitalization was similarly low for ED and non-ED groups. Early discharge after TAVI with the ACURATE valve is safe and feasible in selected patients. Rhythm monitoring and extended clinical observation protracted hospital stay.

Early outcomes of transapical mitral valve implantation versus surgical replacement in matched elderly patients at intermediate surgical risk.

Data comparing transcatheter mitral valve implantation (TMVI) with surgical mitral valve replacement (SMVR) are lacking. This study sought to compare the 30-day Valve Academic Research Consortium (VARC)-3 device success of TMVI with that of SMVR. Matching protocol combined exact matching (sex, atrial fibrillation, previous surgical aortic valve replacement [SAVR] or coronary artery bypass grafting [CABG]), coarsened exact matching (age) and propensity score matching (body mass index, mitral valve pathology and concomitant tricuspid regurgitation). A total of 40 Tendyne TMVI and 80 SMVR patients with similar baseline characteristics were analysed (TMVI vs SMVR): age (78 years [interquartile range [{IQR} 75; 80] vs 78 years [IQR 73; 80]; p=0.8), female (60% vs 60%; p=1.0), atrial fibrillation (67.5% vs 63.7%; p=0.8), previous SAVR (12.5% vs 10.0%; p=0.8), previous CABG (20.0% vs 16.2%; p=0.8), body mass index (25.54 kg/m² vs 25.24 kg/m²; p=0.7) and valve pathology (mitral regurgitation: 70.0% vs 73.8%, mitral stenosis: 7.5% vs 3.8%, and mixed disease: 22.5% vs 22.5%; p=0.6). Most baseline characteristics not included in the matching model were balanced among the TMVI/SMVR cohorts: European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II (5.8% [IQR 2.9; 7.5] vs 4.2% [IQR 2.4; 6.8]; p=0.3) and Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality (STS-PROM) score (5.2% [IQR 3.2; 8.6] vs 4.1% [IQR 3.3; 6.1]; p=0.076). Coronary artery disease (67.5% vs 32.5%; p<0.001) and previous percutaneous coronary intervention (47.5% vs 25.0%; p=0.023) differed among groups. Mitral VARC (MVARC) device success at 30 days was achieved in 82.5% of patients after TMVI and 57.5% of patients after SMVR (p=0.04). MVARC procedural success at 30 days was 75.0% after TMVI versus 52.5% after SMVR (p=0.07). Thirty-day mortality (2.5% vs 3.8%; p=0.47), technical success (97.5% vs 97.5%; p=1.0), major bleeding (17.5% vs 18.7%; p=0.087), stroke (5.0% vs 4.9%; p=1.0) and postoperative haemodialysis (7.5% vs 5.2%; p=0.4) were similar in both groups. Patients with intermediate surgical risk, according to STS-PROM and EuroSCORE II, demonstrated higher rates of MVARC device at 30 days after TMVI compared to 30 days after SMVR. Rates of survival and procedural success, neurological, renal and bleeding complications were similar. Transfusion count and length of stay were lower after TMVI. For elderly patients at intermediate risk, a TMVI eligibility assessment may be considered.

Long-term outcomes after transcatheter aortic valve replacement: Meta-analysis of Kaplan-Meier-derived data.

Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) is as an alternative treatment to surgical AVR, but the long-term outcomes of TAVR remain unclear. This study aimed to analyze long-term outcomes following TAVR using meta-analysis. A literature search was performed with MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, and Google Scholar through November 2022; studies reporting clinical outcomes of TAVR with follow-up periods of ≥8 years were included. The outcomes of interest were overall survival and/or freedom from structural valve deterioration (SVD). Surgical risk was assessed with the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) predicted risk of mortality (PROM) score. A subgroup analysis was conducted for intermediate-/high-surgical risk patients only. Eleven studies including 5458 patients were identified and analyzed. The mean age was 82.0 ± 6.5 years, and mean STS PROM score ranged from 2.9to 10.6%. Survival rate at 5 and 10 years was 47.7% ± 1.4% and 12.1 ± 2.0%. Five studies including 1509 patients were analyzed for SVD. Freedom from SVD at 5 and 8 years was 95.5 ± 0.7% and 85.1 ± 3.1%. Similar results for survival and SVD were noted in the subgroup analysis of intermediate-/high-risk patients. Following TAVR, approximately 88% of patients died within 10 years, whereas 85% were free from SVD at 8 years. These date suggest that baseline patient demographic have the greatest impact on survival, and SVD does not seem to have a prognostic impact in this population. Further investigations on longer-term outcomes of younger and lower-risk patients are warranted.

Survival After Surgical Aortic Valve Replacement in Low-Risk Patients: A Contemporary Trial Benchmark

BackgroundThe use of transcatheter aortic valve replacement for severe aortic stenosis in low-risk patients necessitates an evaluation of contemporary long-term, real-world outcomes of similar patients undergoing surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) in a national cohort. MethodsAll patients undergoing primary, isolated SAVR in The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) database between 2011 and 2019 were examined. The study population of 42,586 adhered to the inclusion/exclusion criteria of the Placement of Aortic Transcatheter Valves (PARTNER) 3 and Evolut Low Risk randomized trials. Patients were further stratified by STS predicted risk of mortality (PROM), age, and left ventricular ejection fraction. The primary end-point was all-cause National Death Index mortality. Unadjusted survival to 8 years was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. ResultsMean age was 74.3 ± 5.7 years and mean STS PROM was 1.9% ± 0.8%. The overall Kaplan-Meier time to event analysis for all-cause mortality at 1, 3, 5, and 8 years was 2.6%, 4.5%, 7.1%, and 12.4%, respectively. In subset analyses, survival was significantly better for (1) lower STS PROM (P < .001), (2) younger vs older age (P < .001), and (3) higher vs lower left ventricular ejection fraction (P < .001). When STS PROM was below 1% or the patient age was below age 75 years, the 8-year survival after SAVR was 95%. ConclusionsThe results of this national study confirm that long-term survival after SAVR remains excellent, at 92.9% at 5 years. These contemporary longitudinal data serve to aid in the balanced interpretation of current and future trials comparing SAVR and transcatheter aortic valve replacement and may assist in the clinical decision-making process for patients of lower surgical risk.

Trends in surgical aortic valve replacement in pre- and post-transcatheter aortic valve replacement eras at a structural heart center.

The advent of transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) has directly impacted the lifelong management of patients with aortic valve disease. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has approved TAVR for all surgical risk: prohibitive (2011), high (2012), intermediate (2016), and low (2019). Since then, TAVR volumes are increasing and surgical aortic valve replacements (SAVR) are decreasing. This study sought to evaluate trends in isolated SAVR in the pre- and post-TAVR eras. From January 2000 to June 2020, 3,861 isolated SAVRs were performed at a single academic quaternary care institution which participated in the early trials of TAVR beginning in 2007. A formal structural heart center was established in 2012 when TAVR became commercially available. Patients were divided into the pre-TAVR era (2000-2011, n = 2,426) and post-TAVR era (2012-2020, n = 1,435). Data from the institutional Society of Thoracic Surgeons National Database was analyzed. The median age was 66 years, similar between groups. The post-TAVR group had a statistically higher rate of diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, heart failure, more reoperative SAVR, and lower STS Predicted Risk of Mortality (PROM) (2.0% vs. 2.5%, p < 0.0001). There were more urgent/emergent/salvage SAVRs (38% vs. 24%) and fewer elective SAVRs (63% vs. 76%), (p < 0.0001) in the post-TAVR group. More bioprosthetic valves were implanted in the post-TAVR group (85% vs. 74%, p < 0.0001). Larger aortic valves were implanted (25 vs. 23 mm, p < 0.0001) and more annular enlargements were performed (5.9% vs. 1.6%, p < 0.0001) in the post-TAVR era. Postoperatively, the post-TAVR group had less blood product transfusion (49% vs. 58%, p < 0.0001), renal failure (1.4% vs. 4.3%, p < 0.0001), pneumonia (2.3% vs. 3.8%, p = 0.01), shorter lengths of stay, and lower in-hospital mortality (1.5% vs. 3.3%, p = 0.0007). The approval of TAVR changed the landscape of aortic valve disease management. At a quaternary academic cardiac surgery center with a well-established structural heart program, patients undergoing isolated SAVR in the post-TAVR era had lower STS PROM, more implantation of bioprosthetic valves, utilization of larger valves, annular enlargement, and lower in-hospital mortality. Isolated SAVR continues to be performed in the TAVR era with excellent outcomes. SAVR remains an essential tool in the lifetime management of aortic valve disease.

Observed versus expected morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing mitral valve repair.

OBJECTIVESMitral valve repair (MVP) is the gold standard treatment for degenerative mitral regurgitation. With the expansion of transcatheter technologies, this study compares the outcome of MVP in low-risk and non-low-risk patients to serve as a benchmark.METHODSThis retrospective, single-institution study examined all patients who underwent MVP for primary mitral regurgitation from 2005 to 2018. Patients were stratified into 2 risk categories: low-risk [Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Predicted Risk of Mortality (STS-PROM) ≤2%] and non-low risk (STS-PROM > 2% or age > 75), with a subgroup of very low risk (STS-PROM ≤1%, age <75).RESULTSA total of 1207 patients were included, and 1053 patients were classified as low risk and 154 as non-low risk. The non-low-risk group was significantly older, more likely to be female, and had a higher comorbidity burden than the low-risk group (all P < 0.01). For the low-risk group, the observed-to-expected (O:E) STS mortality ratio was 0.4 and the composite morbidity and mortality ratio was 0.6, whereas for the non-low risk, the O:E mortality was 1.5 and the composite morbidity and mortality was 0.9. When the subgroup of very low-risk group was assessed, the mortality O:E ratio was 0.CONCLUSIONSThe observed composite morbidity and mortality of patients undergoing MVP were persistently lower in low-risk patients, mainly driven by the very low-risk group. The excellent outcome of MVP in low-risk patients should be validated on a national level to determine how transcatheter technologies can be utilized in these patients.

Will artificial intelligence help us in predicting outcomes in cardiac surgery?

Will artificial intelligence help us in predicting outcomes in cardiac surgery?

Clinical Factors and Outcomes When Real-World Heart Teams Overruled STS Risk Scores in TAVR Cases.

Objectives This study was conducted to determine why heart teams recommended transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) versus surgical AVR (SAVR) for patients at low predicted risk of mortality (PROM) and describe outcomes of these cases. Background Historically, referral to TAVR was based predominately on the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk model's PROM >3%. In selected cases, heart teams had latitude to overrule these scores. The clinical reasons and outcomes for these cases are unclear. Methods Retrospective data were gathered for all TAVR and SAVR cases conducted by 9 hospitals between 2013 and 2017. Results Cases included TAVR patients with STS PROM >3% (n = 2,711) and ≤3% (n = 415) and SAVR with STS PROM ≤3% (n = 1,438). Leading reasons for recommending TAVR in the PROM ≤3% group were frailty (57%), hostile chest (22%), severe lung disease (16%), and morbid obesity (13%), and 44% of cases had multiple reasons. Most postoperative and 30-day outcomes were similar between TAVR groups, but the STS PROM ≤3% group had a one-day shorter length of stay (2.5 ± 3.4 vs. 3.5 ± 4.7 days; p ≤ 0.001) and higher one-year survival (91.6% vs. 86.0%, p=0.002). In patients with STS PROM ≤3%, 30-day mortality was higher for TAVR versus SAVR (2.0% vs. 0.6%; p < 0.001). Conclusions Heart teams recommended TAVR in patients with STS PROM ≤3% primarily due to frailty, hostile chest, severe lung disease, and/or morbid obesity. Similar postoperative outcomes between these patients and those with STS PROM >3% suggest that decisions to overrule STS PROM ≤3% were merited and may have reduced SAVR 30-day mortality rate.

Feasibility of Coronary CT Angiography-derived Left Ventricular Long-Axis Shortening as an Early Marker of Ventricular Dysfunction in Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement.

To evaluate the value of using left ventricular (LV) long-axis shortening (LAS) derived from coronary CT angiography (CCTA) to predict mortality in patients with severe aortic stenosis (AS) undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). Patients with severe AS who underwent CCTA for preprocedural TAVR planning between September 2014 and December 2019 were included in this retrospective study. CCTA covered the whole cardiac cycle in 10% increments. Image series reconstructed at end systole and end diastole were used to measure LV-LAS. All-cause mortality within 24 months of follow-up after TAVR was recorded. Cox regression analysis was performed, and hazard ratios (HRs) are presented with 95% CIs. The C index was used to evaluate model performance, and the likelihood ratio χ2 test was performed to compare nested models. The study included 175 patients (median age, 79 years [IQR, 73-85 years]; 92 men). The mortality rate was 22% (38 of 175). When adjusting for predictive clinical confounders, it was found that LV-LAS could be used independently to predict mortality (adjusted HR, 2.83 [95% CI: 1.13, 7.07]; P = .03). In another model using the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality (STS-PROM), LV-LAS remained significant (adjusted HR, 3.38 [95 CI: 1.48, 7.72]; P = .004), and its use improved the predictive value of the STS-PROM, increasing the STS-PROM C index from 0.64 to 0.71 (χ2 = 29.9 vs 19.7, P = .001). In a subanalysis of patients with a normal LV ejection fraction (LVEF), the significance of LV-LAS persisted (adjusted HR, 3.98 [95 CI: 1.56, 10.17]; P = .004). LV-LAS can be used independently to predict mortality in patients undergoing TAVR, including those with a normal LVEF.Keywords: CT Angiography, Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation/Replacement (TAVI/TAVR), Cardiac, Outcomes Analysis, Cardiomyopathies, Left Ventricle, Aortic Valve Supplemental material is available for this article. © RSNA, 2022See also the commentary by Everett and Leipsic in this issue.

Deep Learning to Predict Mortality After Cardiothoracic Surgery Using Preoperative Chest Radiographs

BackgroundThe Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality (STS-PROM) estimates mortality risk only for certain common procedures (eg, coronary artery bypass or valve surgery) and is cumbersome, requiring greater than 60 inputs. We hypothesized that deep learning can estimate postoperative mortality risk based on a preoperative chest radiograph for cardiac surgeries in which STS-PROM scores were available (STS index procedures) or unavailable (non–STS index procedures). MethodsWe developed a deep learning model (CXR-CTSurgery) to predict postoperative mortality based on preoperative chest radiographs in 9283 patients at Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) having cardiac surgery before April 8, 2014. CXR-CTSurgery was tested on 3615 different MGH patients and externally tested on 2840 patients from Brigham and Women’s Hospital (BWH) having surgery after April 8, 2014. Discrimination for mortality was compared with the STS-PROM using the C-statistic. Calibration was assessed using the observed-to-expected ratio (O/E ratio). ResultsFor STS index procedures, CXR-CTSurgery had a C-statistic similar to STS-PROM at MGH (CXR-CTSurgery: 0.83 vs STS-PROM: 0.88; P = .20) and BWH (0.74 vs 0.80; P = .14) testing cohorts. The CXR-CTSurgery C-statistic for non–STS index procedures was similar to STS index procedures in the MGH (0.87 vs 0.83) and BWH (0.73 vs 0.74) testing cohorts. For STS index procedures, CXR-CTSurgery had better calibration than the STS-PROM in the MGH (O/E ratio: 0.74 vs 0.52) and BWH (O/E ratio: 0.91 vs 0.73) testing cohorts. ConclusionsCXR-CTSurgery predicts postoperative mortality based on a preoperative CXR with similar discrimination and better calibration than the STS-PROM. This may be useful when the STS-PROM cannot be calculated or for non–STS index procedures.

Applicability of the commonly used risk scores for coronary bypass surgery in Algeria.

ObjectivesThe applicability of European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation II (EuroSCORE II) and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk Of Mortality (STS-PROM) as well as the initial logistic Parsonnet risk score, who have been developed from European and American datasets, is questionable outside these regions. We aimed to assess the performance of these three risk scores for patients undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in Algeria.MethodsBetween June 2014 and June 2016, data from 235 consecutive patients, who underwent isolated CABG at a reference center in Algiers, were prospectively collected and scored according to the EuroSCORE II, STS-PROM and the Parsonnet score. Their discriminative power was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) while their calibration was tested by the Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test.ResultsThe mean patient age was 59.08 years and 18.3% were female. The mortality at 30 days was 3.40%. The mortality expected by EuroSCORE II, STS-PROM and by Parsonnet risk score was: 1.33%, 0.78% and 3.35%, respectively. Discriminatory ability was fair for the Parsonnet risk score, good for the STS PROM and excellent for EuroSCORE II (AUCs = 0.737, 0.788, and 0.892, respectively). Regarding calibration, EuroSCORE II and STS-PROM under estimated observed mortality (Hosmer–Lemeshow test: P< 0.001 for both scores), while the Parsonnet risk score was well calibrated (Hosmer–Lemeshow test: p = 0.395).ConclusionsEuroSCORE II and STS-PROM had excellent and good discriminating power, respectively, but both underestimated the risk of 30 days mortality following isolated CABG at a reference center in Algiers. The Parsonnet risk score was well calibrated but was moderately discriminating. The development of a local risk score or the recalibration of recent international risk scores is necessary.

Computed tomographic assessment of right ventricular long axis strain for prognosis after transcatheter aortic valve replacement

ObjectivesTo investigate the predictive value of right ventricular long axis strain (RV-LAS) derived by cardiac computed tomography angiography (CCTA) for mortality in patients with aortic stenosis (AS) undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). MethodsWe retrospectively included patients with severe AS undergoing TAVR (n = 168, median 79 years). Parameters of RV function including RV-LAS and RV ejection fraction (RVEF) were assessed using pre-procedural systolic and diastolic CCTA series. The tricuspid annulus diameter (TAD) and diameter of the main pulmonary artery (mPA) were also assessed. All-cause mortality was recorded post-TAVR. Cox regression was used and results are presented with hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Harrell's c-index was used to assess the performance of different models and the likelihood ratio test was used to compare nested models. ResultsThirty-eight deaths (22.6%) occurred over a median follow-up of 21 months. RV-LAS > -11.42% (HR 2.86, 95% CI 1.44–5.67, p = 0.003), LVEF (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.96–0.996; p = 0.02), TAD (HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.01–1.10, p = 0.02) and mPA diameter (HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.02–1.16, p = 0.01) were associated with mortality on univariable analysis. In a multivariable model, only RV-LAS (HR 2.36, 95% CI 1.04–5.36, p = 0.04) remained as an independent predictor of all-cause mortality. RV-LAS significantly improved the predictive power of the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality (STS-PROM) (c-index 0.700 vs 0.637; p = 0.01). ConclusionRV-LAS was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality in patients with severe AS undergoing TAVR, outperformed anatomical markers such as TAD and mPA diameter, and could potentially improve the current risk-stratifying tool.

Utility of Functional and Volumetric Left Atrial Parameters Derived From Preprocedural Cardiac CTA in Predicting Mortality After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement.

BACKGROUND. Cardiac CTA is required for preprocedural workup before transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) and can be used to assess functional parameters of the left atrium (LA). OBJECTIVE. We aimed to evaluate the utility of functional and volumetric LA parameters derived from cardiac CTA to predict mortality in patients with severe aortic stenosis (AS) undergoing TAVR. METHODS. This retrospective study included 175 patients with severe AS (92 men, 83 women; median age, 79.0 years) who underwent cardiac CTA for clinical pre-TAVR assessment. A postdoctoral research fellow calculated maximum and minimum LA volumes using biplane area-length measurements; these values were indexed to body surface area, and maximum and minimum LA volume index (LAVImax and LAVImin, respectively) values were calculated. The LA emptying fraction (LAEF) was automatically calculated. All-cause mortality within a 24-month follow-up period after TAVR was recorded. To identify parameters predictive of mortality, Cox regression analysis was performed, and results were summarized by hazard ratio (HR) and 95% CI. The Harrell C-index was used to assess model performance. A radiology resident repeated the measurements in a random sample of 20% (n = 35) of the cases, and interobserver agreement was computed using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). RESULTS. Thirty-eight deaths (21.7%) were recorded within a median follow-up of 21 months. LAVImax (HR, 1.02 [95% CI, 1.01-1.04]; p = .01), LAVImin (HR, 1.02 [95% CI, 1.01-1.04]; p < .001), and LAEF (HR, 0.97 [95% CI, 0.95-0.99]; p = .002) were predictive of mortality in univariable analysis. After adjusting for clinical parameters, only LAEF (HR, 0.97 [95% CI, 0.94-0.99]; p = .02) independently predicted mortality. The C-index of the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality (STS-PROM) significantly increased from 0.636 to 0.683, 0.694, and 0.700 when incorporating into the model LAVImax, LAVImin, and LAEF, respectively. The ICC for maximum and minimum LA volumes and LAEF ranged from 0.94 to 0.99. CONCLUSION. LAEF derived from preprocedural cardiac CTA independently predicts mortality in patients with severe AS undergoing TAVR. CLINICAL IMPACT. Cardiac CTA-derived LA function, evaluated during pre-TAVR workup, can be used to assess preprocedural risk and may improve risk stratification in post-TAVR surveillance.

688. Incidence and Risk Factors for Prosthetic Valve Endocarditis Following TAVR: 2015-2019

Abstract Background Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) is increasingly used for lower risk patients. Incidence of TAVR endocarditis ranges from 0.2% to 3.3%. The purpose of this study was to determine local incidence and risk factors of prosthetic valve infective endocarditis (PVIE) in a contemporary cohort. Methods IRB approved retrospective, nested case-control study evaluated the 1-year incidence and risk factors for PVIE among TAVR recipients from 2015 to 2019. Inclusion: ≥ 18 years, TAVR procedure at Henry Ford Health System. Exclusion: repeat TAVR. PVIE cases were matched with controls who did not experience PVIE. PVIE defined as diagnosis documentation in the electronic medical record. Figure 1. Study Design Results 23/1266 patients were identified as cases corresponding to a 1-year incidence of 1.82%. The median time to PVIE was 127 days and 35% occurred within 60 days. The most frequently isolated organisms were streptococci (26%), MRSA (13%), and MSSA (13%). Baseline demographics and comorbidities for 23 PVIE cases and 161 controls are displayed in Table 1. Significant risk factors for PVIE in bivariate analysis included STS-PROM (Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality), median: 4.1 controls and 6.4 cases (p = 0.012). Age, BMI, and comorbidities were not significantly different. Diabetes was notably more frequent among cases (36% vs 48%, p = 0.274). Patients with PVIE had more post-op RBC transfusions (5% vs 21.7% p = 0.003), ECG changes (23% vs 43.5%, p = 0.035), heart block (15.5% vs 34.8%, p = 0.038), longer length of stay (2 days, range 1 to 4 vs 4 to 11, p = 0.004), and thirty-day readmission (10.6% vs 52.2%, p &amp;lt; 0.001). Results displayed in Table 2. Table 1. Patient Characteristics and Risk Factor Analysis Table 2. Additional Outcomes Conclusion The results from this study give insight to the local incidence, microbiology, and risk of PVIE following TAVR. Future directions include a larger evaluation of modifiable risks such as diabetes management and examining the heart block patients who received permanent pacemaker implants. Disclosures Rachel Kenney, PharmD, Medtronic, Inc. (Other Financial or Material Support, spouse is an employee and shareholder) Janet F. Wyman, DNP, CNS-BC, FACC, Edwards Lifesciences (Consultant) Dee Dee Wang, MD, Edwards LifeSciences (Consultant) Brian O'Neill, MD, Edwards Lifesciences (Consultant)

Cardiac Operations After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement

BackgroundTranscatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) is now frequently performed for severe aortic stenosis. Data regarding cardiac operations after TAVR are limited, however. Therefore, we investigated patient characteristics, operative timing and indications, and outcomes of these operations in a single-center experience. MethodsFrom January 2012 to July 2020, 59 patients (median age, 70 years) underwent cardiac operations after TAVR, 38 (64%) of which were performed in other centers. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality (STS-PROM) was calculated at the time of prior TAVRs and at applicable index cardiac operations. ResultsFrom 2012 to 2018, fewer than 10 operations were performed after TAVR, but 18 were performed in 2019. The interval between prior TAVR and cardiac surgery decreased exponentially from 7 years to less than 1 year over the experience. In applicable cases (19 of 59 operations [32%]), the median STS-PROM was 5.5% (15th-85th percentiles, 3.1%-25%), and 40 (68%) were complex operations with no calculable STS-PROM. The TAVR valve was explanted in 46 (78%); 5 were isolated surgical aortic valve replacements. TAVR valve stenosis/regurgitation (34 [58%]) was the leading indication, followed by paravalvular leak in 14 (24%) and endocarditis in 10 (17%). When the TAVR valve was not explanted, mitral regurgitation was the leading indication for operation. Operative death occurred in 5 (8.5%), postoperative stroke in 2 (3.4%), and postoperative dialysis in 6 (10%). ConclusionsCardiac operations after TAVR are increasing, and the interval between TAVR and operation is decreasing. Most cardiac operations are complex, high-risk reoperations, and isolated aortic valve replacement is rare. These findings should be considered when TAVR is selected for low- to intermediate-risk patients, particularly with multiple cardiac pathologies not addressed by TAVR.

Association Between Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement for Bicuspid vs Tricuspid Aortic Stenosis and Mortality or Stroke Among Patients at Low Surgical Risk

There are limited data on outcomes of transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) for bicuspid aortic stenosis in patients at low surgical risk. To compare the outcomes of TAVR with a balloon-expandable valve for bicuspid vs tricuspid aortic stenosis in patients who are at low surgical risk. Registry-based cohort study of patients undergoing TAVR at 684 US centers. Participants were enrolled in the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS)/American College of Cardiology Transcatheter Valve Therapies Registry from June 2015 to October 2020. Among 159 661 patients (7058 bicuspid, 152 603 tricuspid), 37 660 patients (3243 bicuspid and 34 417 tricuspid) who were at low surgical risk (defined as STS risk score <3%) were included in the analysis. TAVR for bicuspid vs tricuspid aortic stenosis. Coprimary outcomes were 30-day and 1-year mortality and stroke. Secondary outcomes included procedural complications and valve hemodynamics. Among 159 661 patients (7058 bicuspid; 152 603 tricuspid), 3168 propensity-matched pairs of patients with bicuspid and tricuspid aortic stenosis at low surgical risk were analyzed (mean age, 69 years; 69.8% men; mean [SD] STS-predicted risk of mortality, 1.7% [0.6%] for bicuspid and 1.7% [0.7%] for tricuspid). There was no significant difference between the bicuspid and tricuspid groups' rates of death at 30 days (0.9% vs 0.8%; hazard ratio [HR], 1.18 [95% CI, 0.68-2.03]; P = .55) and at 1 year (4.6% vs 6.6%; HR, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.55-1.02]; P = .06) or stroke at 30 days (1.4% vs 1.2%; HR, 1.14 [95% CI, 0.73-1.78]; P = .55) and at 1 year (2.0% vs 2.1%; HR 1.03 [95% CI, 0.69-1.53]; P = .89).There were no significant differences between the bicuspid and tricuspid groups in procedural complications, valve hemodynamics (aortic valve gradient: 13.2 mm Hg vs 13.5 mm Hg; absolute risk difference [RD], 0.3 mm Hg [95% CI, -0.9 to 0.3 mm Hg]), and moderate or severe paravalvular leak (3.4% vs 2.1%; absolute RD, 1.3% [95% CI, -0.6% to 3.2%]). In this preliminary, registry-based study of propensity-matched patients at low surgical risk who had undergone TAVR for aortic stenosis, patients treated for bicuspid vs tricuspid aortic stenosis had no significant difference in mortality or stroke at 30 days or 1 year. Because of the potential for selection bias and absence of a control group treated surgically for bicuspid aortic stenosis, randomized trials are needed to adequately assess the efficacy and safety of transcatheter aortic valve replacement for bicuspid aortic stenosis in patients at low surgical risk.

Left atrial appendage thrombus and cerebrovascular events post-transcatheter aortic valve implantation.

To elucidate the frequency and clinical impact of left atrial appendage thrombus (LAAT) in patients set for transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). All patients undergoing TAVI between January 2014 and June 2020 with analysable multislice computed tomography (MSCT) for LAAT were included. Baseline and procedural characteristics were collected, pre-procedural MSCT's were retrospectively analysed for LAAT presence. The primary endpoint was defined as the cumulative incidence of any cerebrovascular event (stroke or transient ischaemic attack) within the first year after TAVI. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify predictors.A total of 1050 cases had analysable MSCT. Median age was 80 [interquartile range (IQR) 74-84], median Society of Thoracic Surgeons' Predicted Risk Of Mortality (STS-PROM) was 3.4% (IQR 2.3-5.5). Thirty-six percent were on oral anticoagulant therapy for atrial fibrillation (AF). LAAT was present in 48 (4.6%) of cases. Patients with LAAT were at higher operative risk [STS-PROM: 4.9% (2.9-7.1) vs. 3.4% (2.3-5.5), P = 0.01], had worse systolic left ventricular function [EF 52% (35-60) vs. 55% (45-65), P = 0.01] and more permanent pacemakers at baseline (35% vs. 10%, P < 0.01). All patients with LAAT had a history of AF and patients with LAAT were more often on vitamin K antagonist-treatment than patients without LAAT [43/47 (91%) vs. 232/329 (71%), P < 0.01]. LAAT [hazard ratio (HR) 2.94 (1.39-6.22), P < 0.01] and the implantation of more than one valve [HR 4.52 (1.79-11.25), P < 0.01] were independent predictors for cerebrovascular events. Patients with MSCT-identified LAAT were at higher risk for cerebrovascular events during the first year after TAVI.

Permanent pacemaker placement following valve surgery is not independently associated with worse outcomes

BackgroundPermanent pacemaker placement (PPM) is associated with morbidity following cardiac surgery. This study identified associations between PPM placement and 5-year outcomes for patients that require PPM following valvular surgery. MethodsAll patients who underwent valvular surgery at our medical center from 2011 to 2018 were considered for analysis. Multivariable analysis identified associations between PPM placement, mortality, and readmissions. Primary outcomes were operative complications and mortality. Secondary outcomes included 5-year survival and readmission. ResultsA total of 175 (4.86%) of 3602 valvular surgery patients required postoperative PPM. The PPM cohort had significantly worse baseline comorbidities, including greater Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality (STS-PROM) scores (3.8 vs 2.4 P < .0001). The PPM cohort had greater rates of blood product transfusion, prolonged ventilation, and new-onset atrial fibrillation. PPM placement was significantly associated with third-degree heart block (5.26; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.00-27.53; P = .0496), ventricular fibrillation/tachycardia (3.90; 95% CI, 1.59-9.59; P = .01), and atrial fibrillation/flutter (1.53; 95% CI, 1.05-2.24; P = .03). On Kaplan-Meier estimates, 5-year survival (68.8% vs 83.1%; P = 01) was significantly reduced in the PPM cohort. Five-year all-cause readmission (60.4% vs 50.04%; P = .01) and heart failure readmission (35.5% vs 20.1%; P < .000) occurred more frequently in the PPM cohort. On multivariable Cox regression analysis, PPM placement (hazard ratio, 1.12; 95% CI, 0.84-1.50; P = .444) was not an independent predictor of mortality. On competing risk analysis, PPM (hazard ratio, 1.33; 95% CI, 0.99-1.80; P = .062) was not a predictor of hospital readmission. ConclusionsValvular surgery patients who required postoperative PPM had elevated baseline operative risk. However, PPM implantation was not associated with mortality or readmission.