Spring Snow Cover Research Articles

Mechanism of ion migration from the substrate material into snow cover at the end of the cold period

Earlier, it was established that maximum mineralization of the contact layer of snow occurs in spring at the interface with substrates (soil or ice). This study analyzes the temperature and moisture conditions during this period at the interface of the contact layer of snow with substrates by examining frozen sand blocks saturated with a solution containing complex gold ions, or blocks filled with polystyrene containing ions of molybdenum, copper, etc. It is assumed that the migration of ions from the underlying substrate into the contact layer of snow cover in spring occurs along quasi-liquid films on the surface of snow crystals, the thickness of which exceeds the equilibrium one. Migration becomes noticeable when the temperature at the snow–substrate contact reaches −13 °С and above. The appearance of quasi-liquid films on the surface of snow particles under variable temperature and moisture conditions is possible due to the condensation of water vapor, which during the day, with general heating of the system, can enter the contact layer of snow both from above and below. With an increase in snow density in the spring, the mineralization of the near-contact layer of snow cover increases. At the same time, linear relationships were revealed between the content of substrate components migrating into the near-contact layer of snow and the gradient of water vapor density in it. The reliability of the approximation of these dependencies for the gold thiosulfate complex is 0.98; for copper ions – 0.52; for hydrogen ions – 0.88; for sodium ions – 0.69, for chloride anions – 0.89. The results of the study substantiate the increased efficiency of geochemical prospecting for mineral deposits using snow cover in the spring.

Interdecadal variability of winter and spring Eurasian snow depth and its impact on Eastern China precipitation

Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and correlation analyses were employed to investigate the winter and spring snow depth in Eurasia and its relationship with Eastern China precipitation based on the observed and reanalyzed data from 1980 to 2016. The results show that the winter and spring snow cover in Eurasia not only highlights a decreasing trend due to global warming (the first EOF mode, its variance accounted for 24.4% and 22.6% of the total variance) but also exhibits notable interdecadal variation (the second EOF mode, its variance accounted for 10.2% and 11.5% of the total variance). The second EOF mode of winter snow depth in Eurasia is characterized by a west-east dipole pattern. It was observed that the spatial correlation pattern between the EOF2 of Eurasian snow depth and summer precipitation in China closely resembles the meridional quadrupole structure of the third EOF mode of summer precipitation in China. This pattern is characterized by excessive rainfall in Northeast China and the lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River, and less rainfall over the Yellow River basin and southern China. The EOF mode of spring snow depth not only reflects the declining trend but also regulates precipitation in Eastern China. The possible mechanisms by which snow depth causes changes in soil moisture and subsequently affects atmospheric circulation are then explored from the perspective of the hydrological effects of snow cover. Decreased (Increased) snow depth in Eurasia during the winter and spring directly leads to diminished (increased) soil moisture while increasing (decreasing) net radiation and sensible heat flux at the surface. The meridional distribution of surface temperature also exhibits a dipole pattern, leading to enhanced subtropical westerly jet in the upper troposphere. The Eurasian snow cover anomalies pattern triggered an anomalous mid-latitude Eurasian wave train, which strengthened significantly in the Western Siberian Plain. It then splits into two branches, one continuing to propagate eastward at high latitudes and the other shifting towards East Asia, thereby impacting precipitation in Eastern China. This work indicates that the second EOF mode of Eurasian snow cover can impact the precipitation variability in Eastern China during the same period and in summer on an interdecadal scale.

The associations of Tibetan Plateau spring snow cover with East Asian summer monsoon rainfall before and after 1990

In recent decades, the existence of a relationship between snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall has been emphasized. According to recently published studies this snow-monsoon relationship experienced a shift after 1990. Although the changing snow-monsoon relationship has been studied, the causes of the interdecadal changes remain unclear. This study assesses the associations of TP spring snow cover with EASM rainfall before and after 1990 and explores what possible mechanisms could be responsible for the interdecadal changes. Correlation and composite analyses were used to assess the strength of the relationship between TP spring snow cover and EASM rainfall and to analyze the atmospheric and land surface patterns associated with high snow cover. The outcomes suggest that the relationship between TP spring snow cover and EASM rainfall changes from partially negative to positive over all regions of the TP from 1968–1990 (P1) to 1991–2019 (P2), implying that more snow cover is associated with less (more) EASM rainfall during P1 (P2). In P1, years with high snow cover are associated with an anomalous cyclone southwest of the TP (positioned over Iran and Pakistan) in spring, which persists into the following summer, partly due to the underlying snow cover. The anomalous cyclone is accompanied by downstream anomalies over East Asia, which form a strong east-west oriented wave pattern and induce a northerly inflow of dry air over East Asia, reducing rainfall over the northern EASM domain. In P2, high snow cover years are associated with an anomalous cyclone over the western TP, which weakens and loses its significance in May-June and summer, partly due to a decline in snow forcing. Southeastward propagation of wave energy in May-June initiates the formation of an anomalous anticyclone over southeastern China and the western North Pacific. Concurrently, a meridional circulation develops over East Asia that enhances the southwesterly moisture inflow, resulting in increased EASM rainfall. The changing snow-monsoon relationship can be linked to different wave train patterns resulting from changes in the background zonal wind and meridional temperature gradients. This research contributes to a better understanding of the changing snow-monsoon relationship.

The Influence of Snow Cover Variability on the Runoff in Syr Darya Headwater Catchments between 2000 and 2022 Based on the Analysis of Remote Sensing Time Series

Climate change is affecting the snow cover conditions on a global scale, leading to changes in the extent and duration of snow cover as well as variations in the start and end of snow cover seasons. These changes can have a paramount impact on runoff and water availability, especially in catchments that are characterized by nival runoff regimes, e.g., the Syr Darya in Central Asia. This time series analyses of daily MODIS snow cover products and in situ data from hydrological stations for the time series from 2000 through 2022 reveal the influences of changing snow cover on the runoff regime. All catchments showed a decrease in spring snow cover duration of −0.53 to −0.73 days per year over the 22-year period. Catchments located farther west are generally characterized by longer snow cover duration and experience a stronger decreasing trend. Runoff timing was found to be influenced by late winter and spring snow cover duration, pointing towards earlier snowmelt in most of the regions, which affects the runoff in some tributaries of the river. The results of this study indicate that the decreasing snow cover duration trends lead to an earlier runoff, which demands more coordinated water resource management in the Syr Darya catchment. Further research is recommended to understand the implications of snow cover dynamics on water resources in Central Asia, crucial for agriculture and hydropower production.

Wolverine density, survival, and population trends in the Canadian boreal forest

AbstractThere is limited information available on wolverine (Gulo gulo) population density and trends in the boreal forest of North America. We estimated wolverine density using spatial capture‐recapture methods across 2 boreal forest study areas in Red Lake, Ontario (26,568 km2) and Rainbow Lake, Alberta (19,084 km2), Canada. We also used radio‐telemetry data to estimate annual survival of adult and sub‐adult wolverines and evaluated population trends with a stage‐based matrix model. We used an array of run poles and live traps to detect wolverines. In Red Lake over 3 winter field seasons (2019–2022), we detected 56 individual wolverines (17 females, 32 males, and 7 unknown sex), and in Rainbow Lake over 2 field seasons (2014–2016), we detected 48 individuals (19 females, 18 males, and 11 of unknown sex). Average densities in Red Lake and Rainbow Lake were 3.64 and 6.74 wolverines/1,000 km2, respectively. Adults and sub‐adults occurred at equal abundance. Spring snow cover, roads, and industrial developments were not associated with spatial patterns of wolverine density. Most deaths occurred near roads; wolverines were killed in fur traps set along roads, by wolves using roads to travel, and by vehicles. The largest source of death was from incidental (n = 6 in Red Lake) or licensed fur trapping (n = 8 in Rainbow Lake) and we report 8 injuries from fur trapping sets. Red Lake survival estimates for adults (0.87) and sub‐adults (0.86) contributed to a stable population trend. Rainbow Lake survival estimates for adults (0.66) and sub‐adults (0.50) contributed to a declining population trend based on a relatively low sample of radio‐days. Red Lake and Rainbow Lake combined survival estimates for adults (0.77) and sub‐adults (0.73) also contributed to a declining population trend. Our survival and population modeling suggests that human‐caused mortality is a significant risk to these populations. Our results can be applied to wolverine status assessments and used as benchmarks for future monitoring. Wolverine population stability or growth might be achieved by reducing incidental trapping deaths or injury and hindering human access to wolverine habitats through decommissioning or limiting development of industrial roads or other anthropogenic linear features.

Increased Extreme Precipitation in May over Southwestern Xinjiang in Relation to Eurasian Snow Cover in Recent Years

Abstract In this study, the interdecadal variations of extreme precipitation in May over southwestern Xinjiang (SWX) and related mechanisms were investigated. The extreme precipitation in May over SWX exhibited a decadal shift in the 1990s (negative phase during 1970–86 and positive phase during 2003–18). The decadal shift corresponded to strengthened moist airflow from the Indian Ocean and an anomalous cyclone over SWX during 2003–18. It is found that the interdecadal change of the wave trains in Eurasia might account for the differences in atmospheric circulation between the above two periods. Further analyses reveal that spring snow cover over Eurasia is closely linked to extreme precipitation over SWX during 2003–18. Increased snow cover in western Europe (WE) from February to March is accompanied by more snowmelt. This resulted in less local snow cover and lower albedo, leading to warm temperatures over WE in May. The changes in temperatures increase the local 1000–500-hPa thickness over WE. These factors provide favorable conditions for the enhancement of the Eurasian wave trains, which significantly influence extreme precipitation over SWX. On the other hand, corresponding to decreased albedo caused by the reduction of snow cover in northern Eurasia (NE) in May, anomalous surface warming occurs over NE. The anomalous warming results in positive geopotential height anomalies that intensify the meridional geopotential height gradient over Eurasia and cause an acceleration of the westerly jet in May. Anomalous upper-level divergence in SWX induced by the enhanced westerly jet provides a favorable dynamical condition for increased extreme precipitation.

Intensified Impact of Spring Tibetan Plateau Snow Cover on Summer Compound Heat Waves in Western Europe after 1998

Abstract This study revealed a significant interdecadal change in the impact of spring western Tibetan Plateau (TP) snow cover (TPSC) on subsequent summer compound heat waves (CHWs) in western Europe (WE) after 1998. This interdecadal change is attributed to a change in a western Europe high–western TP low (WEH–TPL) atmospheric circulation pattern. This pattern arises due to both the inherent variability of TPSC and the phase transition of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) after 1998. The increased magnitude and persistence of western TPSC from spring to summer after 1998 enhanced the snow–atmosphere coupling effect, intensifying ascent and decent motion over the TP and WE, respectively, and strengthening the WEH–TPL pattern. In addition, the post-1998 positive AMO phase favors continuous and stable downstream Rossby wave propagation, enhancing the WEH–TPL pattern and the TPSC–CHWs relationship. Further analyses reveal that the interdecadal changes in the TPSC and the AMO around 1998 contribute to the presence of “double jets” over the North Atlantic–central Eurasian sectors. The TPSC–related anomalous atmospheric circulation and AMO phase shift contribute to the southern and northern branches of the intensified westerly jet, respectively. These conditions create a favorable environment for the formation and persistence of summer CHWs in WE. Numerical modeling experiments with a linear baroclinic model confirm these findings. Our findings suggest that in the context of a changing climate, TPSC plays a pivotal role in the genesis of summer CHWs in WE and may serve as a valuable predictor for CHWs. Significance Statement This study discovered that starting from 1998 there was a significant change in how spring snow cover on the western Tibetan Plateau affects summer compound heat waves in western Europe. After 1998, the snow cover on the western Tibetan Plateau increased in size and lasted longer from spring to summer, intensifying the interaction between the snow and the atmosphere. This led to more rising and sinking air over the Tibetan Plateau and western Europe, respectively. Also, after 1998 a positive phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) was favorable for the circulation connection between western Europe and the Tibetan Plateau. Further analysis showed that these changes in snow cover and the AMO after 1998 caused “double jets” in the North Atlantic and central Eurasia that created better conditions for summer heat waves in western Europe. Numerical models are used to confirm these findings. Our research indicates that, in a changing climate, the snow cover on the western Tibetan Plateau plays a crucial role in the development of summer heat waves in western Europe and can be a useful predictor for these heat waves.

Changes in Spring Snow Cover over the Eastern and Western Tibetan Plateau and Their Associated Mechanism

Changes in Spring Snow Cover over the Eastern and Western Tibetan Plateau and Their Associated Mechanism

Rapid population decline in McKay’s Bunting, an Alaskan endemic, highlights the species’ current status relative to international standards for vulnerable species

Abstract The McKay’s Bunting (Plectrophenax hyperboreus) is endemic to Alaska, breeds solely on the remote and uninhabited St. Matthew and Hall islands (332 km2) in the central Bering Sea, and is designated as a species of high conservation concern due to its small population size and restricted range. A previous hypothesized population estimate (~2,800 to 6,000 individuals) was greatly increased (~31,200 individuals) after systematic surveys of the species’ entire breeding range in 2003, establishing McKay’s Bunting as one of the rarest passerines in North America. In 2018, we replicated the 2003 surveys and used density surface models to estimate breeding season densities, distributions, and population change over the intervening time period. Our results indicate that the McKay’s Bunting population declined by 38% (95% CI: 27 to 48%) from ~31,560 to 19,481 individuals since 2003. Spatial model predictions showed no areas with an increase of birds on either St. Matthew or Hall islands but revealed declines across 13% (42 km2) of St. Matthew Island. Declines disproportionately occurred both in marginal habitats with reduced rocky nesting substrate and in high-density hotspots along the coast of St. Matthew Island. The total area occupied by breeding adults decreased by 8%, and high-density hotspots shifted inland from the coast of St. Matthew Island to higher elevations on both islands, the latter potentially responses to exceptionally warm weather and reduced spring snow cover in 2018. Additionally, we observed low numbers of predators and interspecific competitors in 2018, suggesting that these did not cause the decline. Our findings indicate that McKay’s Bunting meets international standards for elevating its conservation status from Least Concern to Endangered based on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species ranking criteria. Additional population monitoring and studies to identify the causal mechanisms of the recent population decline of this rare species could assist future population assessments.

Analysis of spring drought in Northeast China from the perspective of atmosphere, snow cover, and soil

Northeast China is an important grain-producing area, and spring is the sowing time for crops. Drought hinders crop germination and leads to crop failure. Spring drought analysis helps to understand the characteristics of regional spring drought and provides a reference for formulating disaster prevention and reduction measures. Considering the characteristics of seasonally frozen soil regions in northeastern China, sampling at a resolution of 0.5 degrees, accounting for the snow cover factors in the early spring, as well as precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture during the spring planting period, and uses the projection pursuit information entropy model to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of spring drought in Northeast China. In the model, a new method was proposed to calculate the cutoff radius by adjusting the radius size with the parameter. The optimal parameters were ultimately determined using the Shapiro-Wilk test, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, and Epps-Pulley test. The results are as follows: drought is relatively severe in the eastern parts of Inner Mongolia, as well as in the northwest of Liaoning. The central and northern parts of Inner Mongolia, the northern and northeastern parts of Heilongjiang, the southeastern parts of Jilin, and the eastern parts of Liaoning are relatively humid, while the drought situation in other regions is relatively moderate. Regional spring drought shows an increasing trend, and most regions show statistical significance. Areas with high temperatures and low precipitation, as well as low snow cover in the early spring, are prone to spring drought. Moist regions are characterized by high precipitation, low evapotranspiration, and abundant snow resources.

Dynamics of Spring Snow Cover Variability over Northeast China

Spring snow cover variability over Northeast China (NEC) has a profound influence on the local grain yield and even the food security of the country, but its drivers remain unclear. In the present study, we investigated the spatiotemporal features and the underlying mechanisms of spring snow cover variability over NEC during 1983–2018 based on the satellite-derived snow cover data and atmospheric reanalysis products. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis showed that the first EOF mode (EOF1) explains about 50% of the total variances and characterizes a coherent snow cover variability pattern over NEC. Further analyses suggested that the formation of the EOF1 mode is jointly affected by the atmospheric internal variability and the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly at the interannual timescale. Specifically, following a negative phase of the atmospheric teleconnection of the Polar–Eurasian pattern, a prominent cyclonic circulation appears over NEC, which increases the snowfall over the east of NEC by enhancing the water vapor transport and decreases the air temperature through reducing the solar radiation and intensifying the cold advection. As a result, the snow cover has increased over NEC. Additionally, the tripole structure of the North Atlantic spring SST anomaly could excite a wave-train-type anomalous circulation propagating to NEC that further regulates the snow cover variability by altering the atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic conditions and the resultant air temperature and snowfall. Our results have important implications on the understanding of the spring snow cover anomaly over NEC and the formulation of the local agricultural production plan.

Synthesis of habitat models for management of wolverine (Gulo gulo): Identifying key habitat and snow refugia in the Columbia and Rocky Mountains, Canada

The wolverine is a wide-ranging and frequently at-risk or data-deficient species with dramatic range contractions across the northern hemisphere. Recent reports of low population densities inside and outside protected areas in western North America highlight the need for better conservation practice, policy, and planning across large landscapes. To assess broad habitat needs, we synthesized available wolverine habitat models in the Columbia and Rocky Mountains (63,000 km2), Canada. We used coefficients from four existing models to create spatial predictions over environmental datasets including snow, landcover, and roads. We averaged predictions using the distance-weighted mean of equal-area percentile habitat values and validated the output by comparison to independent data. Because persistent spring snow is tightly correlated with high-quality habitat, we assessed 2080 spring snow cover forecasts (under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 high emissions scenario) to identify potential habitat refugia in British Columbia. Our synthesized habitat model identified high-quality habitat along mountain ranges, notably in the Purcell Mountains and the Columbia Icefield in the Rocky Mountains. Mean habitat value was 0.70 (SD: 0.19) inside protected areas and 0.55 (SD: 0.28) outside protected areas. The British Columbia side of the study area is forecasted to lose 44% of persistent spring snow cover by 2080, with declines identified inside many protected areas. By synthesizing existing habitat research and climate forecasts, we provided new insights at the broad spatial scale needed to conserve wide-ranging species like wolverine and to inform land-use planning for recreational access and the establishment and management of protected and conserved areas.

Possible impacts of vegetation cover increment on the relationship between winter snow cover anomalies over the Third Pole and summer precipitation in East Asia

Snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau (TP)–the Third Pole of the earth has been recognized as a reliable signal of summer floods or droughts in East Asia (EA). The distribution of snow cover can be influenced by vegetation, however, the impacts of changes in cover of non-growing season vegetation–withered grass stem over TP on the climatic effects of snow cover remains poorly understood. Here, we showed that the relationship between TP winter snow cover (TPWSC) and EA summer precipitation (EASP) strengthened starting in the early 1990s but weakened after the early 2000s. The weakening of the TPWSC–EASP relationship was linked to the effects of vegetation cover increment (VCI) on winter and spring snow cover over the TP. A possible mechanism behind this linkage is that VCI leads to a shortened persistence of TPWSC anomalies and weakened surface diabatic heating anomalies in spring. Consequently, the influences of TP thermal forcing on the downstream atmospheric circulation in summer were altered, resulting in a different pattern of EASP anomalies. These findings highlight the importance of snow—vegetation feedback and its potential to alter the effectiveness of snow cover in seasonal climate prediction.

Impact of spring Tibetan Plateau snow cover on extreme precipitation in Pakistan in July and August 2022

Record-breaking extreme precipitation occurred in July and August 2022 in Pakistan, causing flooding and landslides. In this study, the characteristics and mechanisms of these extreme precipitation events are investigated. The consecutive extreme precipitation events emerged in July and mid to late August. Precipitation above 500 mm occurred in the northern and southern regions of Pakistan, and the maximum precipitation was concentrated in the same regions. The diagnosis indicated that the precipitation extremes were closely tied to anomalous late spring snow cover in the western Tibetan Plateau. In July, owing to the reduction of late spring snow cover, the strengthened diabatic heating promoted the South Asian High (SAH) and its pumping effect, which contributed to abundant water vapor and strong southeasterly jet along the southwest Tibetan Plateau. Cooperating with the cyclone over Arabian Sea, extreme precipitation with a return period of 50 years occurred in Pakistan. In August, the SAH was an anomalously strong and eastward extension at 200 hPa. In the middle troposphere, the blocking high-pressure over western Russia was extremely active, and the West Pacific Subtropical High shifted anomalously westward, extending to the Tibetan Plateau. Cyclone anomalies occurred over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. With the atmospheric circulation anomaly, the southeasterly jet shifted southward, and water vapor was transported from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal to south Pakistan, causing extreme precipitation with a return period of 30 years in August.

Recolonization following past persecution questions the importance of persistent snow cover as a range limiting factor for wolverines.

Globally, climate is changing rapidly, which causes shifts in many species' distributions, stressing the need to understand their response to changing environmental conditions to inform conservation and management. Northern latitudes are expected to experience strongest changes in climate, with milder winters and decreasing snow cover. The wolverine (Gulo gulo) is a circumpolar, threatened carnivore distributed in northern tundra, boreal, and subboreal habitats. Previous studies have suggested that wolverine distribution and reproduction are constrained by a strong association with persistent spring snow cover. We assess this hypothesis by relating spatial distribution of 1589 reproductive events, a fitness-related proxy for female reproduction and survival, to snow cover over two decades. Wolverine distribution has increased and number of reproductive events increased 20 times in areas lacking spring snow cover during our study period, despite low monitoring effort where snow is sparse. Thus, the relationship between reproductive events and persistent spring snow cover weakened during this period. These findings show that wolverine reproductive success and hence distribution are less dependent on spring snow cover than expected. This has important implications for projections of future habitat availability, and thus distribution, of this threatened species. Our study also illustrates how past persecution, or other factors, that have restricted species distribution to remote areas can mask actual effects of environmental parameters, whose importance reveals when populations expand beyond previously restricted ranges. Overwhelming evidence shows that climate change is affecting many species and ecological processes, but forecasting potential consequences on a given species requires longitudinal data to revisit hypotheses and reassess the direction and magnitude of climate effects with new data. This is especially important for conservation-oriented management of species inhabiting dynamic systems where environmental factors and human activities interact, a common scenario for many species in different ecosystems around the globe.

Interannual Variation in Top-of-Atmosphere Upward Shortwave Flux over the Arctic Related to Sea Ice, Snow Cover, and Land Cloud Cover in Spring and Summer

Abstract We investigated the interannual variations in the annual mean and seasonal cycle of upward shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere (TOA SW↑) over the Arctic using the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) observation data during 2001–20. The annual mean TOA SW↑ over the Arctic showed a decreasing trend from 2001 to 2012 (−2.5 W m−2 decade−1) and had a large interannual variability after 2012. The standard deviation of detrended TOA SW↑ increased from 0.4 W m−2 in 2001–12 to 1.1 W m−2 in 2012–20. Over land, TOA SW↑ variation was related to snow cover in May; snow cover, cloud fraction, and cloud optical depth (COD) in June; and cloud fraction and COD in July. Over ocean, TOA SW↑ variation in June and July was linked to sea ice cover. TOA SW↑ variation over ocean in June and July after 2012 was highly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This study suggests that changes in the large annual mean TOA SW↑ variability after 2012 are explained by the timing of land snow and sea ice melt in spring and summer and cloud variability over land in summer.

Linkage of the preceding winter mid-latitude Eurasian atmospheric circulation with the spring northern East Asian snow cover

Within the current study, the linkage between the preceding wintertime atmospheric circulation around the mid-latitude Eurasia (MLE) and spring Asian snow cover is detected. The result suggests that following the primary atmospheric mode over the MLE during winter, the positive snow cover anomalies tend to appear over northern East Asia (EA) in the ensuing spring. This primary atmospheric mode featured by the negative–positive–negative anomalous geopotential height centers in the middle level around the MLE is conducive to the zonal wavenumber-1 component (ZWN-1) propagating upward into the stratosphere in winter. The poleward heat transportation anomalies connected with the strengthened upward wave activity contribute to the significant anomalous stratospheric warming and thereby a weaker than normal lower stratospheric polar vortex during spring. This abnormal lower stratospheric polar vortex then propagates downward and generates a significant tropospheric cyclonic anomaly around Lake Baikal, favoring the anomalous cooling and more snowfall over the region. The above condition finally results in the enhanced spring snow cover around northern EA. Moreover, the observed connection shown above can be reproduced in the historical simulation (1979–2014) of some coupled models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The result also implies that the time series corresponding to this primary atmospheric mode exhibit a potential to predict the spring snow cover over northern EA.

Summer atmospheric circulation over Greenland in response to Arctic amplification and diminished spring snow cover

The exceptional atmospheric conditions that have accelerated Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss in recent decades have been repeatedly recognized as a possible dynamical response to Arctic amplification. Here, we present evidence of two potentially synergistic mechanisms linking high-latitude warming to the observed increase in Greenland blocking. Consistent with a prominent hypothesis associating Arctic amplification and persistent weather extremes, we show that the summer atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic has become wavier and link this wavier flow to more prevalent Greenland blocking. While a concomitant decline in terrestrial snow cover has likely contributed to this mechanism by further amplifying warming at high latitudes, we also show that there is a direct stationary Rossby wave response to low spring North American snow cover that enforces an anomalous anticyclone over Greenland, thus helping to anchor the ridge over Greenland in this wavier atmospheric state.

Impact of Tibetan Plateau Spring Snow on the Summer Heat Wave Frequency Over the Indochina Peninsula

AbstractIn this work, we investigated the impact of the interannual variation in Tibetan Plateau snow cover (TPSC) on the summer heat wave frequency (HWF) over the Indochina Peninsula (ICP) (HWF_ICP) for 1981–2020. This study shows that the spring TPSC variation over the central Tibetan Plateau (TP) is positively correlated with the summer HWF_ICP and can explain up to 30% of the summer HWF_ICP variance. Analysis of the apparent heat source shows that more‐than‐normal spring snow cover over the central TP has a cooling effect on the above atmosphere, which induces negative geopotential height anomalies in the upper troposphere. The anomalous spring TPSC and its cooling effect can persist until summer. In summer, the TPSC‐associated low anomalies propagate eastward to the East Asia‐Japan Sea area. The anomalous westerly winds along the south flank of these low anomalies strengthen the climatological westerly jet. Changes in the westerlies are accompanied by anomalous ascending and descending air motion north and south of 30°N over the coast of East Asia and the western Pacific. The anomalous descending air motion south of 30°N causes an enhanced subtropical high, less cloud cover, and more downward solar radiation, which are favorable conditions for a greater occurrence of heat waves over the ICP. The results of current study may provide useful information for improving the seasonal forecast skill of the summer HWF_ICP variation.

Interdecadal Changes in the Dominant Modes of Spring Snow Cover over the Tibetan Plateau around the Early 1990s

Abstract The current work investigated the interdecadal changes in the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) pattern of the interannual variation in spring [March–May (MAM)] snow-cover extent (SCE) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) (SSC_TP). The leading EOF pattern of the SSC_TP is transformed from an east to west dipole pattern during the period 1970–89 (P1) to a monopole structure during the period 1991–2020 (P2). Observational analysis shows that during P1, the negative Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) (−AAO) is associated with low-level cross-equator southeasterly anomalies across the Bay of Bengal and transports more water vapor to the eastern TP. Moreover, at a high level, anomalous northerly winds accompanied by an anomalous sinking motion dominate the western TP, favoring an east-wet–west-dry dipole pattern of SSC_TP. Further analysis shows that the −AAO induces anomalous divergence over the Antarctic, which contributes to the formation of a Rossby wave source (RWS). This RWS is related to a northeastward-propagating atmospheric wave train that crosses the equator and contributes to the SSC_TP variation during P1. In contrast, in P2, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is associated with a barotropic atmospheric wave train originating from southern Greenland, moving across the North Atlantic Ocean and North Africa and reaching the TP. This wave train results in significant positive vorticity and ascending airflow above the TP and favors a monopole pattern of the SSC_TP. Further analysis shows that the AO can induce divergence anomalies over southeastern Greenland and RWS anomalies there. This RWS induces an atmospheric wave train that propagates eastward and reaches the TP during P2. The above mechanisms have been supported by the results of numerical experiments performed using the linear baroclinic model.