Slump In Demand Research Articles

Food Price Dynamics During the Pandemic

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) posed a serious challenge to food production and distribution worldwide. There were major disruptions in supply chains due to mobility restrictions and a slump in demand due to the loss of livelihoods and incomes. What effect do these offsetting movements have on prices? Which commodities experienced price increases/slumps? Were these localised or widespread across regions? What is the relative contribution of sub-groups to the overall trends? We delve into these issues using wholesale and retail price data to understand the price dynamics in India during COVID-19, using the previous four years as the reference point. The analysis revealed that the retail margins were consistently higher in 2020–2021 indicating the persistence of local shortages for all commodities. Owing to government support through procurement and distribution, the effect on cereals’ prices was minimal. Perishables like vegetables and meat/fish marketed in raw form through informal/petty trade networks, faced maximum erratic behaviour, while milk, marketed in processed form by organised intermediaries, experienced a moderate impact on prices. Fruits, a perishable but with high-income elasticity of demand, witnessed muted prices possibly due to income erosion. Pulses and oils/fats, imported in large quantum, saw a sharp price increase due to local supply bottlenecks combined with international trade disruption. JEL Codes: E31, Q11

Will We Fly Again? Modeling Air Travel Demand in light of COVID-19 through a London Case Study.

The COVID-19 pandemic and associated travel restrictions have created an unprecedented challenge for the air transport industry, which before the pandemic was facing almost the exact opposite set of problems. Instead of the growing demand and need for capacity expansion warring against environmental concerns, the sector is now facing a slump in demand and the continuing uncertainty about the impacts of the pandemic on people's willingness to fly. To shed light on consumer attitudes toward air travel during and post the pandemic, this study presents an analysis that draws on recently collected survey data (April-July 2020), including both revealed and stated preference components, of 388 respondents who traveled from one of the six London, U.K., airports in 2019. Several travel scenarios considering the circumstances and attitudes related to COVID-19 are explored. The data is analyzed using a hybrid choice model to integrate latent constructs related to attitudinal characteristics. The analysis confirms the impact of consumers' health concerns on their willingness to travel, as a function of travel characteristics, that is, cost and number of transfers. It also provides insights into preference heterogeneity as a function of sociodemographic characteristics. However, no significant effects are observed concerning perceptions of safety arising from wearing a mask, or concerns over the necessity to quarantine. Results also suggest that some respondents may perceive virtual substitutes for business travel, for example video calls and similar software, as only a temporary measure, and seek to return to traveling as soon as it is possible to do so safely.

Public's Travel Intention Following COVID-19 Pandemic Constrained: A Case Study in Vietnam

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the tourism industry due to the resulting travel restrictions as well as a slump in demand among travelers. The tourism industry has been massively affected by the spread of coronavirus, as many countries have introduced travel restrictions in an attempt to contain its spread. In Vietnam, the government has largely been credited for the country's success in keeping COVID-19 transmission rates under control. Early awareness of the pandemic, appropriate, drastic, and people-centric measures, as well as public support, are the main factors behind the success of Vietnam. In that context, it is observed that people's travel demand has bounced back and this research will examine factors driving the public's travel intention in the post-crisis (pandemic) period. The survey was conducted on the Internet using questionnaires designed in the Google platform. Data was collected from April 16 to May 31, 2020, from 154 Vietnamese participants. Research findings demonstrate 4 direct and indirect determinants of travel intention. The strongest effects come from perceived behavioral control which is influenced by subjective well-being. Perceived risk negatively correlates with Self-efficacy and subjective well-being. Conducted in the context of post-COVID-19, the research implies that once the pandemic has been controlled, perceived risks, although still exist, insignificantly influence the public's travel intention.

COVID-19, China, and African Development: Crisis, Continuity, or Readjustment?

While the COVID-19 slowdown is pushing some African countries substantially further toward debt crises and demands for cancellation and/or renegotiation are already underfoot, China is responding to these requests using its longstanding approach of bilateral discussions that resist cancellation of the majority of debts but consider renegotiation. [...]China has long been a partner in addressing African medical and public health challenges, and Chinese COVID-related aid in this sector continues to follow the decades-long blueprint of linking Chinese provincial medical teams to specific recipient countries alongside a provisioning of supplies and construction of medical infrastructure. [...]the widespread suspicion that the disease jumped to humans from a wild animal appears to be crystallizing China’s ambition to regulate its trade in wild animals and animal products, many of which originate in Africa. Following the coronavirus outbreak, China has taken initial steps to eradicate its domestic market for wild animals, and early anecdotal evidence of a slump in demand in African markets suggests these measures are already having an effect.5 Sharp reductions in Chinese trading of African wildlife would have not only major ecological benefits, but also developmental ones—by reducing organized crime and the depletion of biological resources. 7 Crucially, lockdowns and the global economic slowdown have had a profound impact on livelihoods: survey data from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Burkina Faso, and Nigeria suggest that 75% of households have lost some or all of their income.8 According to the World Bank, 2020 real per capita GDP is likely to have declined to 2008 levels in Sub-Saharan Africa.9 Drops in Chinese economic activity on the continent exacerbate these broader patterns.

Costa Rica

Costa Rica has been hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic, owing to its highly open economy that has large exposures to trade, tourism, foreign direct investment, and global supply chains. Tourism exports, which account for over 6 percent of GDP and 19 percent of exports, have collapsed with border closures, while other exports have also slowed owing to a slump in demand from trading partners. A severe local outbreak, which saw confirmed Covid-19 cases jump to 669 in just over six weeks, has led to large domestic labor restrictions, aimed at preventing a spreading of the virus, and is poised to cause additional widespread and prolonged disruptions to economic activity, balance of payments (BOP), and fiscal accounts, at a time when the fiscal space is very limited.

THE AFTERLIFE OF DISCARDED WOOLENS: WHO IS RECYCLING MY CLOTHES?

Purpose- This photo shoot aims to document and understand the process, present scenario, facilities and workers condition of wool recycling units in Panipat, a small town in northern part of India. The city emerged as the recycling hub when the owners of Panipat mills bought second-hand machines from Prato, Italy and started recycling wool and producing shoddy yarn. Panipat is acknowledged as the “cast off capital” and is a part of recycling $182 million value of worn clothes imported to India annually. Methodology- In total, 5 wool recycling units were visited for studying the processes and taking photographs. 20 unstructured interviews of workers, 5 unstructured interviews of factory owners, factory managers/ labor contractors each were conducted. Findings- The findings were categorized into three subheads: The processes, Worker condition and the present scenario. The process of recycling has been same since the inception. With the industry mainly driven by the unorganized sector, there is a lack of investment from the owners towards machinery up-gradation and worker well-being. The economic and social aspect of sustainability is lacking in the whole system. Poor working conditions, lowest worker wages and workers prone to respiratory disorders is the other face of the industry that is doing good to the planet by recycling waste. The industry is on the decline due to competition from the lightweight polyester blanket, almost of the same price, softer in hand feel and of better aesthetics. Large amounts of clothing lie without processing due to the slump in demand. The price of imports per kg has fallen by almost 3 times as compared to early 1990’s when it was approximately 50 Rs/kg to now at 16 Rs/kg now. The lightweight polyester substitute, excess supply of second-hand clothing and fall in demand of its recycled products posses many questions about the future of recycling fashion. This is a case where substitutes are cannibalizing sustainability efforts. Implications- The photos from this study have a direct implication on creating awareness of the social impact of overconsumption and over disposal. We need to think beyond eco-friendly disposal. At the time when we are concerned about “who made my clothes”, it is also the phase when we ask “Who is recycling my clothes” and what substitutes hamper recycling too.

Effect of the global financial crisis on the financial performance of public listed construction companies in Malaysia

Purpose – The aim of this case study is to characterize the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis on the financial performance of public listed construction companies. Design/methodology/approach – Financial analysis was conducted on 32 public listed construction companies in Malaysia. Twelve financial ratios were examined to determine the profitability, liquidity, activity, leverage and solvency of these companies over the period between 2005 and 2010. This was complemented by a distress analysis using Altman’s Z-index. The study also used a content analysis of the Chairman’s or Managing Director’s statement to shareholders to uncover the responses and strategic initiatives undertaken by the management in response to the financial crisis. Findings – The only direct impact of the financial crisis was a reduction in profitability. Total revenues and total assets of these companies continue to grow due to increased demand for construction from year 2007 following two large capital investment programs initiated by the Malaysian Government to mitigate the potential effects of the financial crisis. Net profits rebounded back to 5 per cent by year 2010. These companies immediately responded to the crisis with more prudent financial management; curtailing expenses, cutting dividends, reducing bank borrowings, increasing equity; and to the extent of disposing of assets to mitigate losses. Research limitations/implications – The sample of only 32 public listed companies out of a total of more than 60,000 construction companies may be considered small, but these 32 companies represent nearly 20 per cent of the total construction volume for 2010. Practical implications – The study documents the effects of increased capital spending by the government to mitigate the loss of investor confidence followed by a slowdown in economic growth during a period of global financial distress. Key findings will inform on prudent financial management to withstand future financial crises. Originality/value – The responses and strategies adopted by the management to mitigate the effects and to enhance future performance of these companies have been uncovered. These are important considerations in managing construction companies; the analysis and observations will be invaluable to researchers intending to study how the construction industry responds to a future slump in demand.

“Революция сланцевого газа”: мифы и реалии

The author argues that in recent years the world natural gas markets demonstrated vital new trends that primarily relate to the general slump in demand for the natural gas, as well as to accelerated build-up of shale gas production in the North American countries – the USA and Canada. The author proposes a non-partisan analysis of the factors and prospects of the “shale gas revolution”. The general conclusion is that the widely advertised forecasts of the upcoming dislodgement of the traditional gas, including LNG, from the markets of importing nations have no serious grounds.

Wpływ światowego kryzysu gospodarczego na brazylijski i meksykański przemysł samochodowy

The aim of the study is to analyze the process of economic growth and changes of Brazilian and Mexican automobile industry in years 2000–2010. Special attention was paid to the situation of those industries in the years of global economic crisis and to strategies of dealing with the production and sales slump at the turn of years 2008–2009.The analysis confirmed disparities between Brazilian and Mexican automobile industries’ response to global economic crisis. The Mexican automobile sector was strongly affected by the slump in demand for new cars on the USA market whereas the Brazilian automobile sector experienced only a small production slowdown as the national demand for new cars soared.

Global economic crisis and trade: the role of trade facilitation

The onset of the global economic crisis has led to a slump in global demand. However, the extent to which major trading powers have reduced their imports has differed by trading partner. Like financial contagion, could it be the case that countries that are better integrated in the global trading system via efficient trade facilitation environment suffered the most because of their interconnectedness? Using recent data from the US census bureau, this study finds that the efficiency of the trade facilitation environment actually helped to mitigate the effects of the global slump in demand. Other countries with a better trade facilitation environment suffered less of a drop in their exports to the United States compared to those with a weaker trade facilitation environment. Specifically, an extra day's delay in the exporting country accounted for about a 0.5% more fall in import demand from the United States.

URBAN REDEVELOPMENT, LIVE MUSIC AND PUBLIC SPACE

This article examines the use and promotion of popular music in inner‐city spaces in Sydney. Inner Sydney is currently undergoing rapid gentrification. Residential developers have played upon the reputation of key suburbs as sites of creativity, lifestyle and “alternative subcultures” focused around main street consumption spaces. Yet, resultant property market rises have threatened the ability of artists, musicians and others employed in the cultural industries to secure affordable housing and spaces for performance. At the same time, Sydney has experienced a decline in live music venues, in part fueled by competing revenue streams for publicans (such as slot machines, trivia nights and karaoke), but also exacerbated by the imposition of more restrictive licensing and regulatory laws. These trends have been the subject of much public debate. In the eyes of many within the “creative” industries, newer gentrifiers have merely exacerbated this trend through excessive noise complaints and changing consumer preferences that have resulted in a slump in demand for live amplified music. One policy mechanism intended to arrest the decline of live venues is discussed in this article. Marrickville City Council, in Sydney’s inner‐west, has recently funded a series of free live music concerts in the open spaces it manages in response to a Live Music Task Force established to examine musical performance opportunities in the area. The concerts are deliberately intended as a response to criticisms over the lack of live spaces, but are also part of a wider commitment to celebrate and promote cultural vitality and diversity within the municipality. These policy moves are discussed in this article with regard to the politics of regulating live music spaces, and the role of local government in mediating the cultural impacts of gentrification and urban redevelopment.

Copper: after the boom

Copper demand is expected to turn down in the latter part of 1989 and then dip further in 1990. The slump in demand is expected to be modest, however, much less severe than the post oil shock recessions of the mid‐1970s and early 1980s. By 1991 a healthy growth is expected to resume. However, major expansions to production capacity are in track and excessive production is expected to keep the copper market in surplus for the next five years. Thus, prices are expected to decline sharply and remain at quite low levels through the mid‐1990s.

Fire in the Hole: Miners and Managers in the American Coal Industry

Throughout the coal industry's two-hundred-year history, labor issues have dominated its economics and politics. Curtis Seltzer has written a comprehensive historical analysis of labor relations in the American coal industry -- the first since the 1930s. Market forces have victimized coal suppliers and their workers for most of this century as demand shifted to other fuels. Coal producers responded to poor sales and excess production capacity with policies that led to strikes, inefficiency, and turmoil. Since its founding in 1890, the United Mine Workers of America has represented most coal miners, and management has traditionally taken one of two positions toward the UMWA: break it or use it. From 1950 to 1972, the major coal operators and the union formed an industrial partnership whose purpose was to survive a protracted slump in demand by controlling labor costs, increasing productivity, and limiting competition. This partnership eventually led to a rebellion within the UMWA that demanded democratic reform, better contracts, and improved health and safety in the workplace. For the last decade, the UMWA has been reworking its relationship with management, a process marked by conflict and stress. In the years ahead, substantial environmental problems associated with coal combustion may drastically limit coal's growth. New mining technologies may cut labor requirements to the bone. As the shift to renewable energy occurs, coal may experience a transitional period of expansion followed by a rapid decline. These trends will have enormous social and economic consequences. Fire in the Hole is a story that captures the people of coal as well as the broad clash of social forces.

Short-Term Price Formation in the U.S. Uranium Market

Since the establishment of a private market for uranium in the United States in the late 1960s, the industry's fluctuating fortunes have been reflected in the short-term price of uranium as represented by NUEXCO's "exchange value."' Exchange values are current prices for current or near-term delivery. While NUEXCO emphasizes that its exchange value is not a "spot" price in the usual sense of the word, it still is generally regarded as an indicator of uranium spot (short-term) market price levels.