Slow Coronal Mass Ejections Research Articles

EUHFORIA modelling of the Sun-Earth chain of the magnetic cloud of 28 June 2013

Context. Predicting geomagnetic events starts with an understanding of the Sun-Earth chain phenomena in which (interplanetary) coronal mass ejections (CMEs) play an important role in bringing about intense geomagnetic storms. It is not always straightforward to determine the solar source of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) detected at 1 au. Aims. The aim of this study is to test by a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation the chain of a series of CME events detected from L1 back to the Sun in order to determine the relationship between remote and in situ CMEs. Methods. We analysed both remote-sensing observations and in situ measurements of a well-defined magnetic cloud (MC) detected at L1 occurring on 28 June 2013. The MHD modelling is provided by the 3D MHD European Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) simulation model. Results. After computing the background solar wind, we tested the trajectories of six CMEs occurring in a time window of five days before a well-defined MC at L1 that may act as the candidate of the MC. We modelled each CME using the cone model. The test involving all the CMEs indicated that the main driver of the well-defined, long-duration MC was a slow CME. For the corresponding MC, we retrieved the arrival time and the observed proton density. Conclusions. EUHFORIA confirms the results obtained in the George Mason data catalogue concerning this chain of events. However, their proposed solar source of the CME is disputable. The slow CME at the origin of the MC could have its solar source in a small, emerging region at the border of a filament channel at latitude and longitude equal to +14 degrees.

Correcting Projection Effects in CMEs Using GCS‐Based Large Statistics of Multi‐Viewpoint Observations

AbstractThis study addresses the limitations of single‐viewpoint observations of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) by presenting results from a 3D catalog of 360 CMEs during solar cycle 24, fitted using the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) model. The data set combines 326 previously analyzed CMEs and 34 newly examined events, categorized by their source regions into active region (AR) eruptions, active prominence (AP) eruptions, and prominence eruptions (PE). Estimates of errors are made using a bootstrapping approach. The findings highlight that the average 3D speed of CMEs is ∼1.3 times greater than the 2D speed. PE CMEs tend to be slow, with an average speed of 432 km s−1. AR and AP speeds are higher, at 723 and 813 km s−1, respectively, with the latter having fewer slow CMEs. The distinctive behavior of AP CMEs is attributed to factors like overlying magnetic field distribution or geometric complexities leading to less accurate GCS fits. A linear fit of projected speed to width gives a gradient of ∼2 km s−1 deg−1, which increases to 5 km s−1 deg−1 when the GCS‐fitted ‘true’ parameters are used. Notably, AR CMEs exhibit a high gradient of 7 km s−1 deg−1, while AP CMEs show a gradient of 4 km s−1 deg−1. PE CMEs, however, lack a significant speed‐width relationship. We show that fitting multi‐viewpoint CME images to a geometrical model such as GCS is important to study the statistical properties of CMEs, and can lead to a deeper insight into CME behavior that is essential for improving future space weather forecasting.

Unraveling the Thermodynamic Enigma between Fast and Slow Coronal Mass Ejections

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the most energetic expulsions of magnetized plasma from the Sun that play a crucial role in space weather dynamics. This study investigates the diverse kinematics and thermodynamic evolution of two CMEs (CME1: 2011 September 24 and CME2: 2018 August 20) at coronal heights where thermodynamic measurements are limited. The peak 3D propagation speed of CME1 is high (1885 km s−1) with two-phase expansion (rapid and nearly constant), while the peak 3D propagation speed of CME2 is slow (420 km s−1) with only a gradual expansion. We estimate the distance-dependent variations in the polytropic index, heating rate, temperature, and internal forces implementing the revised FRIS model, taking inputs of 3D kinematics estimated from the graduated cylindrical shell model. We find CME1 exhibiting heat release during its early-rapid acceleration decrease and jumps to the heat-absorption state during its constant acceleration phase. In contrast to CME1, CME2 shows a gradual transition from the near-adiabatic to the heat-absorption state during its gradually increasing acceleration. Our analysis reveals that although both CMEs show differential heating, they experience heat absorption during their later propagation phases, approaching the isothermal state. The faster CME1 achieves an adiabatic state followed by an isothermal state at smaller distances from the Sun than the slower CME2. We also find that the expansion of CMEs is primarily influenced by centrifugal and thermal pressure forces, with the Lorentz force impeding expansion. Multiwavelength observations of flux-ropes at source regions support the FRIS-model-derived findings at initially observed lower coronal heights.

Exploring the impact of imaging cadence on inferring CME kinematics

The kinematics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are crucial for understanding their initiation mechanism and predicting their impact on Earth and other planets. With most of the acceleration and deceleration occurring below 4 R⊙, capturing this phase is vital to better understand their initiation mechanism. Furthermore, the kinematics of CMEs in the inner corona (< 3 R⊙) are closely related to their propagation in the outer corona and their eventual impact on Earth. Since the kinematics of CMEs are mainly probed using coronagraph data, it is crucial to investigate the impact of imaging cadence on the precision of data analysis and the conclusions drawn from it and also for determining the flexibility of designing observational campaigns with upcoming coronagraphs. This study investigates the impact of imaging cadence on the kinematics of ten CMEs observed by the K-Coronagraph of the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory. We manually track the CMEs using high cadence (15 s) white-light observations of K-Cor and vary the cadence as 30 s, 1, 2, and 5 min to study the impact of cadence on the kinematics. We also employed the bootstrapping method to estimate the confidence interval of the fitting parameters. Our results indicate that the average velocity of the CMEs does not have a high dependence on the imaging cadence, while the average acceleration shows significant dependence on the same, with the confidence interval showing significant shifts for the average acceleration for different cadences. The impact of degraded cadence is also seen in the estimation of the time of onset of acceleration. We further find that it is difficult to find an optimum cadence to study all CMEs, as it is also influenced by the pixel resolution of the instrument and the speed of the CME. However, except for very slow CMEs (speeds less than 300 km−1), our results indicate a cadence of 1 min to be reasonable for the study of their kinematics. The results of this work will be important in the planning of observational campaigns for the existing and upcoming missions that will observe the inner corona.

Effects of stealth CME to ion energisation at ionospheric altitudes of Mars

The declining phase of Solar cycle 24 produced a slow coronal mass ejection (CME), which was categorized as stealth CME based on the absence of associated low coronal signatures. This CME impacted Mars and caused a major space weather event during 27–28 August 2018 (max vsw = 580 km s−1 near 1.5 AU). The impact of the stealth CME on the topside of the Martian ionosphere is investigated using the data from Solar Wind Ion Analyzer (SWIA), Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) and Suprathermal and Thermal Ion Composition (STATIC) instruments onboard Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) mission. The variations of ion and electron fluxes within the plasma boundaries during the passage of ICME event were observed using Electron Spectrometer (ELS) and the Ion Mass Analyzer (IMA) sensors onboard Mars Express (MEX) mission. The plasma boundaries of the induced magnetosphere of Mars showed considerable enhancement in the observed fluxes during the event. SWIA observations during the interaction of the CME with Martian plasma environment showed enhancement in the ion flux. STATIC observations showed energisation of planetary heavy ions like O+ and O2+ to energies between 10 eV up to hundreds of eV at altitudes below 300 km. SEP measurements of energetic O+ pick-up ions at energies below 50 keV further support the claim on planetary ion energisation.

Type II radio bursts and their association with coronal mass ejections in solar cycles 23 and 24

Context. Meter-wavelength type II solar radio bursts are thought to be the signatures of shock-accelerated electrons in the corona. Studying these bursts can give information about the initial kinematics, dynamics, and energetics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the absence of white-light observations. Aims. We investigate the occurrence of type II bursts in solar cycles 23 and 24 and their association with CMEs. We also explore whether type II bursts might occur in the absence of a CME. Methods. We performed a statistical analysis of type II bursts that occurred between 200 and 25 MHz in solar cycles 23 and 24 and determined the temporal association of these radio bursts with CMEs. We categorized the CMEs based on their linear speed and angular width and studied the distribution of type II bursts with fast (≥500 km s−1), slow (< 500 km s−1), wide (≥60°), and narrow (< 60°) CMEs. We explored the dependence of type II bursts occurrence on the phases of the solar cycle. Results. Our analysis shows that during solar cycles 23 and 24, 768 and 435 type II bursts occurred, respectively. Of these, 79% were associated with CMEs in solar cycle 23, and 95% were associated with CMEs in solar cycle 24. However, only 4% and 3% of the total number of CMEs were accompanied by type II bursts in solar cycle 23 and 24, respectively. Most of the type II bursts in both cycles were related to fast and wide CMEs (48%). We also determined the typical drift rate and duration for type II bursts, which is 0.06 MHz s−1 and 9 min. Our results suggest that type II bursts dominate at heights ≈1.7 − 2.3 ± 0.3 R⊙. A clear majority have an onset height around 1.7 ± 0.3 R⊙ assuming the four-fold Newkirk model. Conclusions. The results indicate that most of the type II bursts had a white-light CME counterpart, but a few type II bursts lacked a clear CME association. There were more CMEs in cycle 24 than in cycle 23. However, cycle 24 contained fewer type II radio bursts than cycle 23. The onset heights of type II bursts and their association with wide CMEs reported in this study indicate that the early lateral expansion of CMEs may play a key role in the generation of these radio bursts.

Simulation of the Solar Energetic Particle Event on 2020 May 29 Observed by Parker Solar Probe

This paper presents a stochastic three-dimensional focused transport simulation of solar energetic particles (SEPs) produced by a data-driven coronal mass ejection (CME) shock propagating through a data-driven model of coronal and heliospheric magnetic fields. The injection of SEPs at the CME shock is treated using diffusive shock acceleration of post-shock suprathermal solar wind ions. A time-backward stochastic simulation is employed to solve the transport equation to obtain the SEP time–intensity profile at any location, energy, and pitch angle. The model is applied to a SEP event on 2020 May 29, observed by STEREO-A close to ∼1 au and by Parker Solar Probe (PSP) when it was about 0.33 au away from the Sun. The SEP event was associated with a very slow CME with a plane-of-sky speed of 337 km s−1 at a height below 6 R S as reported in the SOHO/LASCO CME catalog. We compute the time profiles of particle flux at PSP and STEREO-A locations, and estimate both the spectral index of the proton energy spectrum for energies between ∼2 and 16 MeV and the equivalent path length of the magnetic field lines experienced by the first arriving SEPs. We find that the simulation results are well correlated with observations. The SEP event could be explained by the acceleration of particles by a weak CME shock in the low solar corona that is not magnetically connected to the observers.

Global Morphology Distortion of the 2021 October 9 Coronal Mass Ejection from an Ellipsoid to a Concave Shape

This paper presents a study of a 2021 October 9 coronal mass ejection (CME) with multipoint imaging and in situ observations. We also simulate this CME from the Sun to Earth with a passive tracer to tag the CME’s motion. The coronagraphic images show that the CME is observed as a full halo by SOHO and as a partial halo by STEREO-A. The heliospheric images reveal that the propagation speed of the CME approaches about 1° hr−1, suggesting a slow CME. With simulated results matching these observation results, the simulation discloses that as the CME ejects from the Sun out to interplanetary space, its global morphology is distorted from an ellipsoid to a concave shape owing to interactions with the bimodal solar wind. The cross section of the CME’s flux rope structure transforms from a circular shape into a flat one. As a result of the deflection, the propagation direction of the CME is far away from the Sun–Earth line. This means that the CME flank (or the ICME leg) likely arrives at both Solar Orbiter and the L1 point. From the CME’s eruption to 1 au, its volume and mass increase by about two orders and one order of magnitude, respectively. Its kinetic energy is about 100 times larger than its magnetic energy at 1 au. These results have important implications for our understanding of CMEs’ morphology, as well as their space weather impacts.

Coronal mass ejection followed by a prominence eruption and a plasma blob as observed by Solar Orbiter

Context. On 2021 February 12, two subsequent eruptions occurred above the western limb of the Sun, as seen along the Sun-Earth line. The first event was a typical slow coronal mass ejection (CME), followed ∼7 h later by a smaller and collimated prominence eruption, originating south of the CME, followed by a plasma blob. These events were observed not only by the SOHO and STEREO-A missions, but also by the suite of remote-sensing instruments on board Solar Orbiter. Aims. We show how data acquired by the Full Sun Imager (FSI), the Metis coronagraph, and the Heliospheric Imager (HI) from the Solar Orbiter perspective can be combined to study the eruptions and different source regions. Moreover, we show how Metis data can be analyzed to provide new information about solar eruptions. Methods. Different 3D reconstruction methods were applied to the data acquired by different spacecraft, including remote-sensing instruments on board Solar Orbiter. Images acquired by the two Metis channels in the visible light (VL) and H I Ly-α line (UV) were combined to derive physical information about the expanding plasma. The polarization ratio technique was also applied for the first time to Metis images acquired in the VL channel. Results. The two eruptions were followed in 3D from their source region to their expansion in the intermediate corona. By combining VL and UV Metis data, the formation of a post-CME current sheet (CS) was followed for the first time in the intermediate corona. The plasma temperature gradient across a post-CME blob propagating along the CS was also measured for the first time. Application of the polarization ratio technique to Metis data shows that by combining four different polarization measurements, the errors are reduced by ∼5 − 7%. This constrains the 3D plasma distribution better.

Coronal mass ejection and solar activity for cycle 23 and 24; a comparative analysis of observational parameters

We analyzed sunspot tracers [sunspot number (SSN) and sunspot area (SSA)] and Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) observed parameters for cycle 23 and 24, comparing sunspot tracers time series with time series for CME parameters [Initial speed and Acceleration] for All and segregated CMEs for possible similarities in their variation pattern. A comparison of CME time series with solar activity (especially SSAT and SSN which seem to reflect the true general activity cycle) shows that fast CMEs follow the solar activity cycle but slow CMEs don’t. Also, CMEs with positive and negative acceleration follow the solar cycle but lags behind b 3monhs for cycle 24. However, the CME acceleration does not follow the solar cycle. CME distribution show that Slow CMEs increases in initial speed from one cycle to the other with a corresponding decrease in acceleration for CMEs with fast speeds. There is an almost insignificant increase in acceleration for CMEs with positive and negative acceleration. These charges are perhaps due to effect of solar wind.

Temperature and Thermal Energy of a Coronal Mass Ejection

Due to the scarcity of UV–EUV observations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) far from the Sun (i.e., at heliocentric distances larger than 1.5 Rsun) our understanding of the thermodynamic evolution of these solar phenomena is still very limited. This work focuses on the analysis of a slow CME observed at the same time and in the same coronal locations in visible light (VL) by the MLSO Mark IV polarimeter and in the UV Lyman-α by the SOHO UVCS spectrometer. The eruption was observed at two different heliocentric distances (1.6 and 1.9 Rsun), making this work a test case for possible future multi-slit observations of solar eruptions. The analysis of combined VL and UV data allows the determination of 2D maps of the plasma electron density and also the plasma electron temperature, thus allowing the quantification of the distribution of the thermal energy density. The results show that the higher temperatures in the CME front are due to simple adiabatic compression of pre-CME plasma, while the CME core has a higher temperature with respect to the surrounding CME void and front. Despite the expected adiabatic cooling, the CME core temperatures increased between 1.6 and 1.9 Rsun from 2.4 MK up to 3.2 MK, thus indicating the presence of plasma heating processes occurring during the CME expansion. The 2D distribution of thermal energy also shows a low level of symmetry with respect to the CME propagation axis, possibly related with the CME interaction with nearby coronal structures. This work demonstrates the potential of UV and VL data combination and also of possible future multi-slit spectroscopic observations of CMEs.

Resolving Two Distinct Thermal X-Ray Components in a Compound Solar Flare

Abstract X-ray emission provides the most direct diagnostics of the energy release process in solar flares. Occasionally, a superhot X-ray source is found to be above hot flare loops of ∼10 MK temperature. While the origin of the superhot plasma is still elusive, it has conjured up an intriguing image of in situ plasma heating near the reconnection site high above the flare loops, in contrast to the conventional picture of chromospheric evaporation. Here we investigate an extremely long duration solar flare, in which EUV images show two distinct flare loop systems that appear successively along a Γ-shaped polarity inversion line (PIL). When both flare loop systems are present, the hard X-ray spectrum is found to be well fitted by combining a hot component (T e ∼ 12 MK) and a superhot component (T e ∼ 30 MK). Associated with a fast coronal mass ejection (CME), the superhot X-ray source is located at the top of the flare arcade that appears earlier, straddling and extending along the long “arm” of the Γ-shaped PIL. Associated with a slow CME, the hot X-ray source is located at the top of the flare arcade that appears later and sits astride the short “arm” of the Γ-shaped PIL. Aided by observations from a different viewing angle, we are able to verify that the superhot X-ray source is above the hot one in projection, but the two sources belong to different flare loop systems. Thus, this case study provides a stereoscopic observation explaining the coexistence of superhot and hot X-ray-emitting plasmas in solar flares.

Widespread 1–2 MeV Energetic Particles Associated with Slow and Narrow Coronal Mass Ejections: Parker Solar Probe and STEREO Measurements

Abstract Suprathermal ions in the corona are thought to serve as seed particles for large gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events associated with fast and wide coronal mass ejections (CMEs). A better understanding of the role of suprathermal particles as seed populations for SEP events can be made by using observations close to the Sun. We study a series of SEP events observed by the Integrated Science Investigation of the Sun (IS⊙IS) suite on board the Parker Solar Probe (PSP) from 2020 May 27 to June 2, during which PSP was at heliocentric distances between ∼0.4 and ∼0.2 au. These events were also observed by the Ahead Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO-A) near 1 au, but the particle intensity magnitude was much lower than that at PSP. We find that the SEPs should have spread in space as their source regions were distant from the nominal magnetic footpoints of both spacecraft and the parent CMEs were slow and narrow. We study the decay phase of the SEP events in the ∼1–2 MeV proton energy range at PSP and STEREO-A, and discuss their properties in terms of both continuous injections by successive solar eruptions and the distances where the measurements were made. This study indicates that seed particles can be continuously generated by eruptions associated with slow and narrow CMEs, spread over a large part of the inner heliosphere, and remain there for tens of hours, even if minimal particle intensity enhancements were measured near 1 au.

First Simultaneous In Situ Measurements of a Coronal Mass Ejection by Parker Solar Probe and STEREO-A

Abstract We present the first Parker Solar Probe mission (PSP)-observed coronal mass ejection (CME) that hits a second spacecraft before the end of the PSP encounter, providing an excellent opportunity to study short-term CME evolution. The CME was launched from the Sun on 2019 October 10 and was measured in situ at PSP on 2019 October 13 and at STEREO-A on 2019 October 14. The small, but not insignificant, radial (∼0.15 au) and longitudinal (∼8°) separation between PSP and STEREO-A at this time allows for both observations of short-term radial evolution as well as investigation of the global CME structure in longitude. Although initially a slow CME, magnetic field and plasma observations indicate that the CME drove a shock at STEREO-A and also exhibited an increasing speed profile through the CME (i.e., evidence for compression). We find that the presence of the shock and other compression signatures at 1 au are due to the CME having been overtaken and accelerated by a high speed solar wind stream (HSS). We estimate the minimum interaction time between the CME and the HSS to be ∼2.5 days, indicating the interaction started well before the CME arrival at PSP and STEREO-A. Despite alterations of the CME by the HSS, we find that the CME magnetic field structure is similar between the vantage points, with overall the same flux rope classification and the same field distortions present. These observations are consistent with the fact that coherence in the magnetic structure is needed for steady and continued acceleration of the CME.

Analysis of Deformation and Erosion during CME Evolution

Magnetised coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are quite substantially deformed during their journey form the Sun to the Earth. Moreover, the interaction of their internal magnetic field with the magnetic field of the ambient solar wind can cause deflection and erosion of their mass and magnetic flux. We here analyse axisymmetric (2.5D) MHD simulations of normal and inverse CME, i.e., with the opposite or same polarity as the background solar wind, and attempt to quantify the erosion and the different forces that operate on the CMEs during their evolution. By analysing the forces, it was found that an increase of the background wind density results in a stronger plasma pressure gradient in the sheath that decelerates the magnetic cloud more. This in turn leads to an increase of the magnetic pressure gradient between the centre of the magnetic cloud and the separatrix, causing a further deceleration. Regardless of polarity, the current sheet that forms in our model between the rear of the CME and the closed field lines of the helmet streamer, results in magnetic field lines being stripped from the magnetic cloud. It is also found that slow normal CMEs experience the same amount of erosion, regardless of the background wind density. Moreover, as the initial velocity increases, so does the influence of the wind density on the erosion. We found that increasing the CME speed leads to a higher overall erosion due to stronger magnetic reconnection. For inverse CMEs, field lines are not stripped away but added to the magnetic cloud, leading to about twice as much magnetic flux at 1 AU than normal CMEs with the same initial flux.

Modeling a Coronal Mass Ejection from an Extended Filament Channel. I. Eruption and Early Evolution

Abstract We present observations and modeling of the magnetic field configuration, morphology, and dynamics of a large-scale, high-latitude filament eruption observed by the Solar Dynamics Observatory. We analyze the 2015 July 9–10 filament eruption and the evolution of the resulting coronal mass ejection (CME) through the solar corona. The slow streamer-blowout CME leaves behind an elongated post-eruption arcade above the extended polarity inversion line that is only poorly visible in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) disk observations and does not resemble a typical bright flare-loop system. Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation results from our data-inspired modeling of this eruption compare favorably with the EUV and white-light coronagraph observations. We estimate the reconnection flux from the simulation’s flare-arcade growth and examine the magnetic-field orientation and evolution of the erupting prominence, highlighting the transition from an erupting sheared-arcade filament channel into a streamer-blowout flux-rope CME. Our results represent the first numerical modeling of a global-scale filament eruption where multiple ambiguous and complex observational signatures in EUV and white light can be fully understood and explained with the MHD simulation. In this context, our findings also suggest that the so-called stealth CME classification, as a driver of unexpected or “problem” geomagnetic storms, belongs more to a continuum of observable/nonobservable signatures than to separate or distinct eruption processes.

Investigating Width Distribution of Slow and Fast CMEs in Solar Cycles 23 and 24

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are highly dynamic events originating in the solar atmosphere, that show a wide range of kinematic properties and are the major drivers of the space weather. The angular width of the CMEs is a crucial parameter in the study of their kinematics. The fact that whether slow and fast CMEs (as based on their relative speed to the average solar wind speed) are associated with different processes at the location of their ejection is still debatable. Thus, in this study, we investigate their angular width to understand the differences between the slow and fast CMEs. We study the width distribution of slow and fast CMEs and find that they follow different power law distributions, with a power law indices (α) of –1.1 and –3.7 for fast and slow CMEs respectively. To reduce the projection effects, we further restrict our analysis to only limb events as derived from manual catalog and we find similar results. We then associate the slow and fast CMEs to their source regions, and classified the sources as Active Regions (ARs) and Prominence Eruptions. We find that slow and fast CMEs coming from ARs and PEs, also follow different power laws in their width distributions. This clearly hints toward a possibility that different mechanisms might be involved in the width expansion of slow and fast CMEs coming from different sources.These results are also crucial from the space weather perspective since the width of the CME is an important factor in that aspect.

Drag-Based Model (DBM) Tools for Forecast of Coronal Mass Ejection Arrival Time and Speed

Forecasting the arrival time of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their associated shocks is one of the key aspects of space weather research. One of the commonly used models is the analytical drag-based model (DBM) for heliospheric propagation of CMEs due to its simplicity and calculation speed. The DBM relies on the observational fact that slow CMEs accelerate whereas fast CMEs decelerate and is based on the concept of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) drag, which acts to adjust the CME speed to the ambient solar wind. Although physically DBM is applicable only to the CME magnetic structure, it is often used as a proxy for shock arrival. In recent years, the DBM equation has been used in many studies to describe the propagation of CMEs and shocks with different geometries and assumptions. In this study, we provide an overview of the five DBM versions currently available and their respective tools, developed at Hvar Observatory and frequently used by researchers and forecasters (1) basic 1D DBM, a 1D model describing the propagation of a single point (i.e., the apex of the CME) or a concentric arc (where all points propagate identically); (2) advanced 2D self-similar cone DBM, a 2D model which combines basic DBM and cone geometry describing the propagation of the CME leading edge which evolves in a self-similar manner; (3) 2D flattening cone DBM, a 2D model which combines basic DBM and cone geometry describing the propagation of the CME leading edge which does not evolve in a self-similar manner; (4) DBEM, an ensemble version of the 2D flattening cone DBM which uses CME ensembles as an input; and (5) DBEMv3, an ensemble version of the 2D flattening cone DBM which creates CME ensembles based on the input uncertainties. All five versions have been tested and published in recent years and are available online or upon request. We provide an overview of these five tools, as well as of their similarities and differences, and discuss and demonstrate their application.

The impact of a stealth CME on the Martian topside ionosphere

ABSTRACT Solar cycle 24 is one of the weakest solar cycles recorded, but surprisingly the declining phase of it had a slow coronal mass ejection (CME) that evolved without any low coronal signature and is classified as a stealth CME that was responsible for an intense geomagnetic storm at Earth (Dst = −176 nT). The impact of this space weather event on the terrestrial ionosphere has been reported. However, the propagation of this CME beyond 1 au and the impact of this CME on other planetary environments have not been studied so far. In this paper, we analyse the data from the Sun–Earth L1 point and from the Martian orbit (near 1.5 au) to understand the characteristics of the stealth CME as observed beyond 1 au. The observations near Earth are using data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite located at L1 point, whereas those near Mars are from the instruments for plasma and magnetic field measurements onboard Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) mission. The observations show that the stealth CME has reached 1.5 au after 7 d of its initial observations at the Sun and caused depletion in the nightside topside ionosphere of Mars, as observed during the inbound phase measurements of the Langmuir Probe and Waves (LPW) instrument onboard MAVEN. These observations have implications on the ion escape rates from the Martian upper atmosphere.

Variations in the Correlations of Acceleration and Force of Slow and Fast CMEs with Solar Activity during Solar Cycles 23 – 24

Studying the behavior of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is important for both solar physics and space weather. The correlations of smoothed monthly mean daily integrated CME acceleration [ $a$ ], mass [ $M$ ], and the force [ $Ma$ ] to drive CMEs with sunspot activity [ $R_{\mathrm{I}}$ ] are analyzed for both slow and fast CMEs and for both Solar Cycles 23 and 24 separately. It is found that $a$ is inversely related to both $R_{\mathrm{I}}$ and $M$ . The correlation between $Ma$ and $R_{\mathrm{I}}$ for both slow and fast CMEs is negative at the rising phase of Solar Cycle 23 and positive otherwise. There is a sharp peak in $\gamma =Ma/R_{\mathrm{I}}$ near the solar minimum (December 2008) for both slow and fast CMEs. However, for fast CMEs, there is a sharp negative peak near the previous solar minimum (August 1996) and another positive peak near the current solar minimum (2019). The positive (negative) peak tends to be related to the solar minimum from a stronger (weaker) to a weaker (stronger) solar cycle. These results suggest that the CME acceleration depends more on the strength of solar activity than on the CME’s speed. Stronger magnetic activity may slow down the CMEs that are too massive or too fast and weaker activity may speed up the CMEs that are less massive or too slow. During a few years’ period of magnetic-field polarity reversal around the solar minimum, the force provided by large-scale magnetic-field structures may not be strong enough to constrain CME motions, leading to the “escape” of CMEs with large $|\gamma |$ .