Slow Growth Of Employment Research Articles

The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force, and Productivity

Population aging is expected to slow US economic growth. We use variation in the predetermined component of population aging across states to estimate the impact of aging on growth in GDP per capita for 1980–2010. We find that each 10 percent increase in the fraction of the population age 60+ decreased per capita GDP by 5.5 percent. One-third of the reduction arose from slower employment growth; two-thirds due to slower labor productivity growth. Labor compensation and wages also declined in response. Our estimate implies population aging reduced the growth rate in GDP per capita by 0.3 percentage points per year during 1980–2010. (JEL E23, E24, J11, J14, J31, O47)

Economic Growth and Adult Obesity Rates in Rural America

Obesity has become an increasingly severe problem in the United States. From 2008 to 2018, the adult obesity rate rose from 33.8% to 42.4%, with rates that are notably higher in rural areas when compared to their urban counterparts. Meanwhile, rural regions have experienced relatively slower employment growth and higher poverty rates during the recovery from the Great Recession. Social scientists are interested in determinants of – and potential solutions to – this rise in obesity rates. The existing literature has focused on the relationship between obesity and social/economic factors, such as the number of fast-food restaurants, limited physical activity, and unemployment rates. However, one unexplored question is whether the level of economic growth experienced by a rural area plays a role in the obesity problem. This paper assesses the impact of economic growth (measured by county-level GDP per capita) on obesity rates (measured by the county-level percentage of adults with BMI higher than 30) in rural America. Nationwide, data is collected on a host of demographic and economic characteristics for all non-metropolitan counties from 2012 to 2016, resulting in a county-level panel data set (n=1,948, t=5). Control variables include age, race and ethnicity, unemployment rates, rates of physical inactivity, food assistance program participation, and an index measuring healthy food availability. Two different econometric approaches were applied: (1) a fixed-effects panel regression model and (2) a difference-in-difference model using propensity score matching (PSM). The results of both econometric models suggest there is no relationship between economic growth and future obesity rates. This suggests that programs focused on rural economic growth may not affect other quality-of-life metrics. The conclusion discusses these competing interests and how regional scientists can play a role in future research in this area.

Employment Generation Challenges and Strategies for Pakistan: A Diagnostic Analysis

The employment challenges are getting more complex and worse because youth under the age of 30 constitute 64 percent of the total population. The gradual increase in labor force participation is adding more pressure to the labor market to generate employment opportunities. Hence, the growth in employment generation is essential to match the unprecedented number of young people entering working age in Pakistan. Moreover, the structural transition process involving labor movement from low-to-high productive activities has been much slower in Pakistan than in other Asian countries like China. This study identifies all major concerns regarding employment challenges in Pakistan and identifies various strategies and policies while adopting a diagnostic approach to employment policy. The reason for adopting the diagnostic approach/framework is to develop an understanding of the factors which are responsible for the slow growth of employment in formal sectors and significant constraints for generating more employment. It attempts to assess various elements that may find a place in developing strategies and policies. While designing effective policies for employment, policymakers must consider all aspects like population, demographics, types of unemployment, economic condition, social structure, and development stage of a country. Meanwhile, the role of entrepreneurial activities and the private sector, technological changes, development of labor-intensive industries and SMEs, improving skills and knowledge, youth employment programs, active labor market policies (ALMPs), and macroeconomic policies are core elements that should be considered to design effectual policies for employment generation.

The Short- and Long-run Employment Impact of COVID-19 through the Effects of Real and Financial Shocks on New Firms

We use the latest available empirical evidence on the impact of the COVID-19 shock on the EU economy to predict its effect on firm entry, and in particular on high-growth startups, and on the related short- and long-run impact on employment growth. We find that the COVID-19 shock is expected to reduce firm entry and that its overall impact is very sensitive to financial conditions. A relatively small increase in financial frictions is likely to strongly reduce the entry of high-growth startups, with fewer jobs created in the short run but, more importantly, also slower employment growth in the long run. We then develop a model with heterogeneous startup types and simulate the effects of the COVID-19 shock on the entry and growth of a cohort of new firms to evaluate alternative policies. We find that a loan subsidy that reduces the excess cost of credit for new startups is the most efficient policy in promoting the entry of high-growth startups. The comparison of this subsidy with a wage subsidy that supports current employment shows that, for the same overall costs, the number of jobs created by the loan subsidy in the long term is significantly larger than that created by the wage subsidy in the short term. Our findings imply that, while policies aiming to stimulate current employment are important, in order to ensure also a faster recovery in the future they should be accompanied by measures directed at reducing the cost of credit for new businesses.

Female employment in India: determinants of choice of sector of activity

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the choice of employment sector for women is driven by the structure of the labour market or determined by the household socioeconomic condition. Design/methodology/approach Data for the study were drawn from the National Sample Survey 68th round (2011–2012). The sector of employment was assessed through females’ participation as an unpaid labour, employer/own account worker, informal wage worker, formal wage worker and unemployed. A multinomial logit model was used to examine the factors that determine the sector of employment. Findings Although education increases formal employment among women, most of them are unemployed or entering into informal employment. It indicates that the labour market has not been able to integrate educated women into formal employment. Research limitations/implications Increase in female education accompanied by a slow growth of employment creates the challenge to accommodate the educated and skilled women in formal employment. Originality/value This study examines the factors determining the sectoral participation of employment to assess the responses of the current labour market for the females, especially educated females who have not been adequately addressed. The findings of the study have significant implications for formulating appropriate labour market policies for the educated female labour force.

Regulating away competition: the effect of regulation on entrepreneurship and employment

Many scholars have worried that regulation deters entrepreneurship because it increases the cost of entry, reduces innovation in the regulated industry, and benefits large firms because they can overcome the costs of complying with regulations more easily than smaller firms. Using novel data on the extent of US federal regulations by industry and data on firm births and employment from the Statistics of US Businesses, we run fixed effects regressions to show that more-regulated industries experienced fewer new firm births and slower employment growth in the period 1998–2011. Large firms may even successfully lobby government officials to increase regulations to raise their smaller rivals’ costs. We also find that regulations inhibit employment growth in all firms and that large firms are less likely to exit a heavily regulated industry than small firms.

Regulating Away Competition: The Effect of Regulation on Entrepreneurship and Employment

Many scholars have worried that regulation deters entrepreneurship because larger firms can overcome the costs of complying with regulations more easily than smaller firms. Using novel data on the extent of US federal regulations by industry at the four-digit NAICS (North American Industry Classification System) level, the RegData database of the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, and data on firm births and employment from the Statistics of US Businesses, we run fixed effects regressions to show that more-regulated industries experienced fewer new firm births and slower employment growth in the period 1998 to 2011. Large firms may even successfully lobby government officials to increase regulations to raise their smaller rivals' costs. We also find that regulations inhibit employment growth in small firms more than in large firms.

ANALISIS DAMPAK PENGANGGURAN TERHADAP KEMISKINAN DI DKI JAKARTA

This article was aimed at describing connections between unemployment to poverty in DKI Jakarta. In this article, the analysis use descriptive-qualitative. This analysis described in descriptive about unemployment and poverty in DKI Jakarta. Unemployment that occured in DKI Jakarta making poverty is increasing and that seen everywhere. The increase of unemployment in development countries emerging due to the slow growth of employment than the the rapid growth of labor force. Policies need to be created by the local government that can increase the demand of unskilled labor in order to facilitate poor peoples sell their labor and reduce the number of unemployment.

Giving a Voice to Employees and Firm Behavior During Crises

We provide novel evidence on how the inclusion of employees in corporate decision making (i.e. codetermination) affects companies’ behavior and their responses to the 2008-2009 financial crisis. We study a model of Scandinavian codetermination where — differently from the well-known German model — employees of large and medium-sized firms have the right but not an obligation to elect a minority share of the supervisory board’s members from among the firm’s workers. We find that, apart for larger firms, the likelihood of observing employee directors is higher in firms operating outside the capital region, in more research-intensive and less capital-intensive firms. Comparing these firms with a matched group of companies without codetermination, we next observe that the former are more reluctant to large reductions in workforce, are less risky, and have somewhat slower employment growth. They are however no different from other firms in terms of investments, salary growth, and equity values. Although firms with employee directors showed stronger employment concerns during the 2008-2009 crisis, they did not experience a stronger fall in equity values. We show that this could be due to wage adjustments being made in these firms during the crisis, and their less risky pre-crisis behavior that probably rendered them less exposed to the shock. Finally, we find no association between dismissals during the crisis and the dual class ownership, as a proxy for long-term oriented owners, or gender board diversity. This suggests that the employment security ensured through codetermination cannot be entirely replicated by other governance mechanisms.

Preparing Millennials for the 21st Century

Slow employment growth after the "Great Recession" of 2008 has been blamedby employers on the mismatch between their needs and the skills held by jobapplicants. This has led to fears that recent college graduates might become a"lost generation" unable to advance in the current economic climate. Recent yearshave seen the convergence of two demographic trends. First has been a shift in thenation’s economy from dependence on the conversion of raw materials to goodsto a knowledge age dependent on the conversion of data to valuable information.Second has been the arrival of the "millennial" generation in higher education andthe workplace. Employers in today’s economic climate prefer adaptable employeeswith thinking, communication, innovation, and process skills over those withfocused job-based training. However, today’s college students want explicit rulesto govern their decisions and expect grades based on work quantity instead ofquality. Three Mason faculty and staff with experience and research expertise instudent learning, generational characteristics, and career services will discusshow faculty can help students develop the skills they will need in the workplace.

The Effect of State Corporate Income Tax Rate Cuts on Job Creation

This paper compares the employment growth of states that enacted corporate income tax rate cuts in the past 23 years with those making no changes. Overall employment comparisons from 1990 to 2012 suggest that a reduction in the corporate income tax rate is associated with faster job creation. The states that cut corporate income tax rates started with slower employment growth than the states that made no changes. However, the growth gaps between the two groups of states disappeared in about five years after the tax cuts were made. Regression results confirm the observation that lower corporate tax rates have a significant and positive effect on employment growth. The enactment of a tax rate cut also has the additional but temporary benefit of promoting job creation as businesses adjust to the new tax rate. However, this benefit is temporary and only occurs during first year of the enactment of a tax cut.

Regional Growth in a Dual Economy: Marshall-Arrow-Romer Externalities and Firm-Ownership in Hungary

Using census-type data of Hungarian firms, we test the Marshall-Arrow-Romer (MAR) hypothesis on the impact of agglomeration economies on regional economic growth. The results suggest that MAR type of local knowledge externalities have a significant positive impact on TFP growth. However, initial and dynamic levels of foreign- and domestic capital had adverse effect on productivity growth. Moreover, slower employment growth was observed in locations with a higher level of initial regional specialization. We argue that regional growth was driven during the transition from the socialist structure into market economy by low-cost motivations of foreign-owned firms; but due to the gap between MNEs and domestic companies – the so-called dual economy – local knowledge externalities hardly exist between the two spheres.

Employment Challenges in Kenya

This paper explores the employment challenge in Kenya. It focused on the past employment creation interventions adopted by the country over time, their outcomes and the status of the country’s employment policy. Kenya’s employment challenge is manifested in terms of a 12.7 per cent open unemployment rate, 21 per cent underemployment and a working poor estimated at 46 per cent of the employed. The employment challenge is heightened by rapid population growth at 3 per cent per annum, a youth bulge of 67 per cent of the adult population, low and un-sustained economic growth, and structural rigidities. The paper establishes that much of the employment creation measures adopted by the government have recognized the role of economic growth in employment. This is despite the low employment yield of the country’s economic growth attributed to sluggish economic growth. To reverse the trend in slow employment growth, Kenya must focus on ensuring high and sustained economic growth. In addition, employment needs to be put at the centre of the country’s macroeconomic policies. Since a large proportion of the Kenyan labour force, even under the best scenario, will remain in the informal sector, the living standards of Kenyans will only brighten if the productivity and employment conditions of informal employment improve. It is envisaged that improving the productivity of the informal sector with a well balanced mix of economic and social policies will make a remarkable contribution to improve the labour and living conditions of a large number of Kenyans. Key Words : Employment Challenge, Employment Policy, Kenya

Employment Challenges in Kenya

This paper explores the employment challenge in Kenya. It focused on the past employment creation interventions adopted by the country over time, their outcomes and the status of the country’s employment policy. Kenya’s employment challenge is manifested in terms of a 12.7 per cent open unemployment rate, 21 per cent underemployment and a working poor estimated at 46 per cent of the employed. The employment challenge is heightened by rapid population growth at 3 per cent per annum, a youth bulge of 67 per cent of the adult population, low and un-sustained economic growth, and structural rigidities. The paper establishes that much of the employment creation measures adopted by the government have recognized the role of economic growth in employment. This is despite the low employment yield of the country’s economic growth attributed to sluggish economic growth. To reverse the trend in slow employment growth, Kenya must focus on ensuring high and sustained economic growth. In addition, employment needs to be put at the centre of the country’s macroeconomic policies. Since a large proportion of the Kenyan labour force, even under the best scenario, will remain in the informal sector, the living standards of Kenyans will only brighten if the productivity and employment conditions of informal employment improve. It is envisaged that improving the productivity of the informal sector with a well balanced mix of economic and social policies will make a remarkable contribution to improve the labour and living conditions of a large number of Kenyans. Â

Statement by the Managing Director on the Work Program of the Executive Board - Executive Board Meeting, November 22, 2010

Persistent challenges: The multi-speed nature of the global economic recovery is testing the system, with strains already appearing in the form of large capital inflows to many emerging market countries and exchange rate pressures. At the same time, slow employment growth, high indebtedness, and remaining financial sector fragilities in some countries could yet derail a fragile recovery. Only cooperative approaches will succeed in relieving tensions and building a strong and sustainable recovery, based on a more balanced pattern of global growth.

Rural Labour - Non Preference for Agricultural Employment

Robust economic growth after the initiation of economic reforms and very slow growth of employment has been a cause of concern. Inability of fast growing sectors to generate employment has also been well exposed. Agriculture despite growing at a very slow rate in post reform period still holds on to its position as a source of living for majority of the people. The paper while noting the all India trend of negative effect on women's participation in rural workforce present the observations about the attitude of the workers in a village in western Uttar Pradesh. Paper traces the conditions which if occur in other parts have the potentiality to render agriculture as least preferred occupation.

Principles for Economic Recovery and Renewal

Over the past year, substantial progress has been made on the path to economic recovery. Yet, as true with most recessions induced by a financial crisis, recovery is going to be long and slow. This is particularly true for employment. Moreover, there is evidence that indicates there are structural as well as cyclical concerns about this recovery's slow employment growth. The personal as well as macroeconomic costs of this slow growth mean that there is no higher public policy priority than economic recovery and job creation. This address presents and discusses three guiding principles for economic policy: restoring confidence, increasing aggregate demand, and achieving broader and deeper education.

Unions and Employment Growth: The Canadian Experience

Using panel data from the Canadian Workplace and Employee Survey, the union effect on employment growth is examined. In line with previous North American findings, private sector unions are found to slow employment growth by approximately 2.2 percent per annum. This study is modeled after two recent articles published in this journal; one using the Australian Workplace and Industrial Relations Survey and a subsequent article using the British Workplace and Industrial/Employee Relations Survey.

Big Reforms but Small Payoffs: Explaining the Weak Record of Growth in Indian Manufacturing

India has undertaken extensive reforms in its manufacturing sector over the last two decades. However, an acceleration of growth in manufacturing, and a corresponding increase in employment, has eluded India. Why have the reforms not produced the intended results? Using Annual Survey of Industries data at the three digit level for major Indian states, for 1980-2004, we analyze the effects of the reforms that liberalized India's industrial licensing regime on the performance of registered manufacturing. We find that the performance of the manufacturing sector is heterogeneous across states, as well as across industries. In particular, labor intensive industries and industries dependent on infrastructure have not benefited much from reforms. Industrial performance appears to be contingent on the state specific policy and economic environment. States with relatively inflexible labor regulations have experienced slower growth of labor-intensive industries and slower employment growth overall. Additionally, states with relatively competitive product market regulations and with better infrastructure have experienced larger benefits from reforms.

How Disasters Affect Local Labor Markets

Abstract This study improves upon the Difference in Difference approach by examining exogenous shocks using a Generalized Difference in Difference (GDD) technique that identifies economic effects of hurricanes. Based on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, worker earnings in Florida counties hit by a hurricane increase up to 4 percent, whereas earnings in neighboring counties decrease. Over time, workers experience faster earnings and slower employment growth than workers in unaffected counties. Hurricanes have a greater impact in coastal and Panhandle counties, and powerful hurricanes have greater economic effects than weaker ones. Further, the GDD technique is applicable to analyze a wider range of exogenous shocks than hurricanes.