Simulation-based Calculations Research Articles

Ramifications of debt restructuring on the euro area

The Greek government budget situation plays a central role in the debt crisis in the euro area. Strong consolidation measures need to be implemented, with potential adverse effects on the Greek economy and further credit requirements. Debt conversion might therefore become a reasonable alternative. The following paper provides some simulation-based calculations of the expected fiscal costs for the governments in the large European countries, Germany, France, Spain and Italy, arising from different policy options — among them a second Greek rescue package.

Ramifications of Debt Restructuring on the Euro Area - The Example of Large European Economies’ Exposure to Greece

The Greek government budget situation plays a central role in the debt crisis in the euro area. The debt to GDP ratio is above 150 percent, while the deficit to GDP ratio exceeds 10 percent. To re-establish the Maastricht criteria, respectively, strong consolidation measures need to be implemented, with potential adverse effects on the Greek economy, and further credit requirements. Therefore, a debt conversion might become a reasonable alternative. The aim of this paper is to provide some simulation-based calculations on the expected fiscal costs for the governments in the large European countries Germany, France, Spain and Italy arising from different policy options - among them a second Greek rescue package. Under realistic conditions, a debt conversion may be the less costly strategy for Greece and the euro area partner states. A value-added of these calculations lies in a potential transfer to smaller euro area member countries.

Ramifications of Debt Restructuring on the Euro Area: The Example of Large European Economies' Exposure to Greece

The Greek government budget situation plays a central role in the debt crisis in the euro area. The debt to GDP ratio is above 150 percent, while the deficit to GDP ratio exceeds 10 percent. To re-establish the Maastricht criteria, respectively, strong consolidation measures need to be implemented, with potential adverse effects on the Greek economy, and further credit requirements. Therefore, a debt conversion might become a reasonable alternative. The aim of this paper is to provide some simulation-based calculations on the expected fiscal costs for the governments in the large European countries Germany, France, Spain and Italy arising from different policy options – among them a second Greek rescue package. Under realistic conditions, a debt conversion may be the less costly strategy for Greece and the euro area partner states. A value - added of these calculations lies in a potential transfer to smaller euro area member countries.

Calculation of alloy solid-liquid interfacial free energies from atomic-scale simulations

Solid-liquid interfacial free energies and associated crystalline anisotropies are calculated for a model Ni-Cu alloy system based upon the analysis of equilibrium capillary fluctuations in molecular-dynamics simulations. Alloying of Ni by Cu leads to a reduction in the magnitude of the calculated interfacial free energy, while having only a minor effect on computed anisotropies. The present study demonstrates the viability of applying the fluctuation method to simulation-based calculations of solid-liquid interfacial free energies in alloys.

The transition and autocorrelation structure of tes processes

TES (Transform-Expand-Sample) is a versatile class of stochastic sequences which can capture arbitrary marginals and a wide variety of sample path behavior and autocorrelation functions. In TES, the initial variate is uniform on [0,1) and the next variate is obtained recursively by taking the fractional part (i.e., modulo-1 reduction) of a linear autoregressive scheme. We show how this class gives rise to uniform Markovian sequences in a general and natural way, by observing that marginal uniformity is closed under modulo-1 addition of an independent variate with arbitrary distribution. We derive the transition function of TES sequences and the autocovariance function of transformed TES sequences using Fourier and Laplace Transform methods. The autocovariance formulas are amenable to fast and accurate calculation and provide the theoretical basis for a computer-based methodology of heuristic TES modeling of empirical data. A companion paper contains various examples which show the efficacy of the TES approach by comparing numerical and simulation-based calculations for a variety of TES autocorrelation functions. The results have applications to the modeling of autocorrelated sequences, particularly in a Monte Carlo simulation context.