Significant Predictors Of In-hospital Mortality Research Articles

P1574Predictors of mortality in hospitalized atrial fibrillation patients with cancer

Abstract Background Recent reports indicate an important interplay between Atrial fibrillation (AF) and cancer. There is little information regarding the outcomes of these patients. Hence, we performed a study to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality to help guide goals of care discussions. Methods The Nationwide Inpatient Sample was used to identify patients with a diagnosis of cancer, who were found to have AF from 2002–2014. Trend rate, patients' and hospital characteristics along with in-hospital complications and predictors of in-hospital mortality were assessed. Backward stepwise elimination technique was used to fit the multivariate regression model. Results Over the 13-year study period, 12,410,290 (national estimate) patients with a cancer diagnosis were identified. 1,013,735 had AF, and 10.2% of the AF patients with cancer died while hospitalised. A variety of comorbidities, in-hospital procedures and in-hospital complications increased the odds of in-hospital mortality in these patients. Also, weekend admissions, elective admissions, and rural hospitals in comparison to urban teaching and non-teaching hospitals were associated with higher in-hospital mortality. Conclusion Stroke, myocardial infarction, pulmonary embolism, deep venous thrombosis, acute kidney injury, congestive heart failure, sepsis, and cardiogenic shock are most significant predictors of in-hospital mortality in AF patients with cancer. Acknowledgement/Funding None

P5016Usefulness of different electrocardiographic patterns as predictors of in-hospital mortality in acute pulmonary embolism

Abstract Background Many electrocardiographic (ECG) patterns may be present in acute pulmonary embolism (PE), but their prevalence and association with in hospital mortality (IHM) are less well established. Objective Assess the correlation between different ECG patterns and IHM in patients (Pts) with PE using a whole country dataset. Methods Prospective multicenter registry which included Pts with acute PE hospitalized in 75 academic centers from October 2016 to November 2017. We considered the following ECG patterns: sinus tachycardia, pulmonary P waves, Q waves in DII-aVF leads, negative T waves in V1-V4, ST segment elevation in aVR and V1, atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter (AF/AF), right bundle branch block (RBBB), ST segment depression, S1Q3T3 pattern or Qr in V1. Statistical analysis was carried out using de STATA version 13.1. A value of p<0.0.5 was considered statistically significant. Results We included 684 Pts; mean age 63.8±16.7 years (43% male). Global IHM was 12%. The most prevalent ECG patterns were sinus tachycardia (51.7%), S1Q3T3 (24.5%), negative T waves in V1- V4 (16%), RBBB (9.9%), AF/AF (8.6%). Four ECG patterns remained statistically significant predictors of IHM on multivariate analysis: AF/AF (OR: 3.81; CI 95% 1.82–7.95, p<0.01), pulmonary P waves (OR: 3.81; CI 95% 1.2–12, p<0.04), RBBB (OR: 2.71; CI 95% 1.39–5.30, p<0.01) and sinus tachycardia (OR: 2.05; CI 95% 1.18–3.54, p<0.04). ECG pattern and in-hospital mortality.Multivariate analysis Electrocardiographic pattern OR CI 95% p value AF/AF 3.81 1.82–7.95 <0.01 Pulmonary P waves 3.81 1.20–12.00 <0.04 RBBB 2.71 1.39–5.30 <0.01 Sinus tachycardia 2.05 1.18–3.54 <0.04 Q waves in DII-aVF 0.93 0.32–2.64 0.89 ST segment depression 1.07 0.39–2.96 0.80 Negative T waves in V1-V4 0.93 0.47–1.81 0.83 S1Q3T3 pattern 0.75 0.39–1.41 0.37 Qr in V1 2.07 0.63–6.73 0.22 ST segment elevation in aVR 2.38 0.79–7.15 0.12 Conclusions We corroborate the usefulness of the ECG as a prognostic tool in acute PE. Four simple ECG patterns (AF/AF, Pulmonary P waves, RBBB and sinus tachycardia) were associated with a higher IHM and therefore should be considered for PE risk stratification.

MELD-XI score predicts in-hospital mortality independent of simplified pulmonary embolism severity index among patients with intermediate-to-high risk acute pulmonary thromboembolism.

Acute pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE) is a highly morbid and fatal condition. Although several risk stratification models exist for prediction of mortality risk in PTE, no study has yet focused on the effect of impaired vital organ function, such as renal or hepatic impairment, on mortality in PTE. MELD-XI (Model for end-stage liver disease excluding INR) score predicts mortality among patients with end-stage hepatic and cardiovascular disorders. Herein, we aimed to test MELD-XI score for predicting in-hospital prognosis of patients with intermediate-to-high risk acute PTE. We reviewed the medical records patients older than 18 years hospitalized with intermediate-to-high risk PTE between 01.06.2011 and 01.01.2019. Simplified pulmonary embolism severity index (sPESI) score and MELD-XI score were calculated, and in-hospital mortality determined. MELD-XI score was compared between patients with and without in-hospital mortality and was correlated to sPESI score. The predictive power of MELD-XI score for in-hospital mortality was sought and an in-hospital survival analysis with Kaplan Meier curve and log-rank test was done for MELD-XI score. A total of 104 patients [mean age of 70.8 ± 15.9 years; 68 (65.4%) females]. Fourteen (13.5%) patients died at hospital. MELD-XI and sPESI scores were significantly correlated to each other and were higher in deceased patients than the survivors [17.3 (IQR 14.3) vs. 10.12 (IQR 2.99); p<0.05 and 2 (IQR 1) vs. 1 (IQR 1); p<0.05, respectively]. MELD-XI score and sPESI score were significant predictor of in-hospital mortality in multivariate analysis. A MELD-XI score ≥ 10.25 had a sensitivity of 78.6% and a specificity of 70.0% for in-hospital mortality. A survival analysis revealed that a high MELD-XI category (MELD-XI score ≥ 10.2) significantly worsened in-hospital survival (p<0.01; log rank test). MELD-XI score performs well for mortality prediction among patients with intermediate-to-high risk PTE. This subject needs to be further studied by large, randomized controlled studies.

26 Predictors of In-Hospital Mortality Post Hip Fracture: What Really Matters?

Abstract Background The Irish Hip Fracture Database is a national clinical audit developed to improve fracture care and outcomes. Lack of integration with other databases, such as a National Death Register makes determination of longer term outcomes challenging. In hospital mortality is one quality indicator that can be very accurately measured. We sought to determine in-hospital mortality in the Irish Hip Fracture Cohort between 2013 and 2017 and to determine which factors most influenced this outcome with particular reference to the IHFD quality standards. Methods A secondary analysis of the 15,603 patients in the IHFD between 2013 and 2017 was conducted. Descriptive and analytical statistics were produced. Results In-hospital mortality was 4.5% for the 5 years. Univariate logistic regression revealed 11 statistically significant predictors of in-hospital mortality of which only 4 (age, gender, pre-fracture mobility, mobilised day of/after surgery) remained significant after multivariate analysis. The most striking finding was that those patients not mobilised on the day of/after surgery were 46% more likely to die in hospital (OR 1.46, p&lt;0.000, 95% CI 1.25-1.70). Conclusion Measuring care is challenging and often one standard cannot reflect all aspects. The ability to be mobilised on the day of or day after surgery is a good composite measure of both patient and organisational factors in hip fracture care: timely surgery, adequate pain relief, prevention of delirium, admission to a ward with philosophy, skills and resources to encourage early mobility. While early mobility has always been encouraged this data suggests its adoption as a formal standard to which all units must comply.

Significant Improvements in Mortality After the Fontan Operation in Children With Down Syndrome

Down syndrome (DS) is considered a risk factor for mortality associated with the Fontan operation. The objective was to show the contemporary short-term outcome of the Fontan operation for a functionally univentricular heart in patients with DS and non-DS, along with an analysis of significant predictors for in-hospital mortality. This was a retrospective study using The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Database to assess in-hospital mortality and its predictors in patients with DS and non-DS undergoing the Fontan operation over 16 years (2001-2016). The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Statistical analysis was performed using univariable and multivariable logistic regression models. Our study cohort consisted of 12,074 patients (81 DS and 11,993 non-DS). The overall in-hospital mortality rate significantly improved in the recent era (2009-2016): 2.4% to 1.3%, P < .001. The DS group had a higher in-hospital mortality rate (12.3% vs 1.6%, P < .001) with an odds ratio of 8.6 (95% confidence interval, 4.4-17.0). The DS group had a higher 30-day mortality rate, a longer median postoperative length of stay, and a higher incidence of postoperative complications. The multivariable model showed that DS was the strongest predictor of in-hospital mortality, with an odds ratio of 11.6 (95% confidence interval, 5.1-26.4), adjusted for other significant variables including era effect, weight, and primary cardiac diagnosis. The in-hospital mortality for the Fontan operation significantly improved in the contemporary era. DS was a significant risk factor for in-hospital morbidity and mortality associated with the Fontan operation.

Computed tomography findings and in-hospital mortality in patients with rupture of type B aortic dissection.

The relationships between the computed tomography (CT) findings and outcomes of patients with ruptured type B aortic dissection have not been clarified. To evaluate the initial CT findings of patients with ruptured type B aortic dissection and investigate the relationships between the initial CT findings and in-hospital mortality. This study was approved by the institutional review board. Thirty-three patients were diagnosed with ruptured Stanford type B aortic dissection at our hospital between 2007 and 2016 (21 men, 12 women; mean age = 76.1±10.7 years). We retrospectively evaluated the initial CT findings of ruptured type B aortic dissection and the relationships between clinical factors and in-hospital mortality using logistic regression analysis. Type B aortic dissections ruptured in the acute and chronic phases in 23 and 10 patients, respectively. The initial CT images showed various findings, including an open false lumen (58%), arch involvement (88%), hematomas in the pleural space (55%), hematomas in the pericardial space (18%), and the extravasation of vascular contrast material (12%). The mean maximum diameter of the affected aorta was 49.5 ± 16.1 mm. Among the 33 patients, 14 died at hospital. Female gender (hazard ratio = 10.284; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.61-65.54; P = 0.0136) and the presence of a hematoma in the pleural space (hazard ratio = 6.803; 95% CI = 1.07-43.24; P = 0.0421) were found to be predictors of in-hospital mortality. Female gender and the presence of a hematoma in the pleural space are significant predictors of in-hospital mortality in patients with ruptured type B aortic dissection.

PC172. Visceral Artery Aneurysms—Management and Outcomes

Visceral artery aneurysms (VAAs) are rare and can be challenging to manage. The goal of this study was to detail the evolution of management of VAAs and to compare outcomes of open and endovascular repair. Using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample data from 1998 to 2014, all admissions with a diagnosis of VAA and intervention were identified. Patients were stratified by aneurysm type (splenic artery aneurysm or non-splenic VAA [NSVAA]) and by procedure type (open, endovascular, combined). Years studied were then divided between procedures performed before and after January 2005. Primary outcomes included in-hospital mortality, length of stay (LOS), postoperative complications (POCs), and total hospital charges. There were 9363 patients who underwent an intervention for a VAA. There was a significant increase in VAA procedures overall as well as in endovascular procedures during the 14 years studied (P < .001 and P < .001). The Table details the cohort demographic and outcomes studied stratified by time frame (before and after 2005). After 2005, there were significant increases in endovascular treatment, POCs, and total hospital charges. After 2005, there were significant decreases in open repair, elective procedures, LOS, non-home discharge, and in-hospital mortality. Overall, the in-hospital mortality rate was 5.4% (n = 506). Significant predictors of in-hospital mortality included preoperative aneurysm rupture (odds ratio [OR], 4.7; P < .001), increased Charlson comorbidity score (OR, 1.2; P < .001), and open repair (OR, 1.61; P = .005). The average LOS was 9.5 ± 11 days, and the only factor that significantly reduced LOS was having an endovascular procedure (−3.2 days; P < .001). Having an NSVAA, preoperative aneurysm rupture, and teaching hospital status significantly increased LOS (+1.7 days [P < .001], +3.5 days [P < .001], and +1.5 [P < .001], respectively). There were 3880 patients (41%) who had any POC, and significant predictors of POC included open procedure (OR, 1.45; P < .001), NSVAA (OR, 1.3; P = .001), surgery after 2005 (OR, 1.3; P < .001), and preoperative rupture (OR, 1.9; P < .001). Endovascular procedures had significantly reduced total hospital charges (−$22,903; P < .001) compared with open repair. Combined procedures, NSVAAs, and preoperative rupture significantly increased total charges (+$26,226 [P = .014], +$16,558 [P < .001], and +$17,965 [P = .007], respectively). Treatment, particularly endovascular management, of VAAs has significantly increased in contemporary practice. Endovascular interventions have a lower mortality, reduced LOS, fewer POCs, and decreased costs compared with open surgery. These data support an endovascular-first approach to VAAs.TableDemographics and outcomes for the treatment of visceral artery aneurysms (VAAs) before and after 2005Demographic and outcomeBefore 2005After 2005P valueDemographicNo. (%) or average (±SD)No. (%) or average (±SD) Patients30166347 Age, years60 (±16)59 (±16)<.001 Female sex1316 (44)2878 (45).128 Splenic artery aneurysm1230 (41)2545 (40).528 NSVAA1828 (61)3893 (61).501 Splenic and VAA42 (1.4)91 (1.4).875 Ruptured VAA496 (16)1020 (16).645 Open repair1388 (46)1441 (23)<.001 Endovascular repair1200 (40)4588 (72)<.001 Combined open and endovascular repair428 (14)318 (5)<.001 Elective procedure652 (43)2058 (32)<.001Outcome Length of stay10.4 days (±14)9 days (±10)<.001 Any postoperative complication1156 (38)2724 (43)<.001 Nonhome discharge348 (14)82 (9)<.001 Total charges$78,753 (±$105,732)$118,589 (±$150,347)<.001 In-hospital mortality202 (7)304 (5)<.001NSVAA, Non-splenic visceral artery aneurysm; SD, standard deviation.Boldface entries indicate statistical significance. Open table in a new tab

Predictors of In-Hospital Mortality in Isolated Total Anomalous Pulmonary Venous Connection.

We assessed risk factors for early mortality in isolated total anomalous pulmonary venous connection over a modern era excluding emergent cases to eliminate the influence of associated factors on surgical outcome. Methods: 70 patients with isolated total anomalous pulmonary venous connection who were repaired electively between January 2013 and February 2018 were included. In-hospital mortality was encountered in 4 patients (5.7%). Upon univariate analysis, low age (P = .003) and weight (P = .001) at surgery, preoperative pulmonary venous obstruction (P = .010), preoperative low oxygen saturation (P = .031), long cardiopulmonary bypass (P = .001) and aortic cross clamp (P = .003) times, long duration of mechanical ventilation (P = .001), chest infection (P = 0.041), postoperative low CO syndrome (P < .001) and long postoperative inotropic support (P = .015) were significant predictors of in-hospital mortality. In multivariate analysis postoperative low cardiac output syndrome (OR: 1.060; 95% CI: 1.008-1.116) and prolonged postoperative mechanical ventilation (OR: 1.772; 95% CI: 1.141-2.751) were independent factors of in-hospital mortality. Surgical repair of TAPVC is now performed with acceptable results. According to our study, postoperative low cardiac output syndrome and prolonged postoperative mechanical ventilation were the most significant predictors for early mortality.

Late presentation of acute hypercapnic respiratory failure carries a high mortality risk in COPD patients treated with ward-based NIV.

Non-invasive ventilation (NIV) is recommended for treatment of acute hypercapnic respiratory failure (AHRF) refractory to medical management in patients with COPD. This study investigated the relationship between time from hospital presentation to diagnosis of AHRF and in-hospital mortality. Retrospective analysis of hospitalised COPD patients treated with a first episode of ward-based NIV for AHRF at a large UK teaching hospital between 2004 and 2017. Data collected prospectively as part of NIV service evaluation. Multivariable logistic regression performed to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality. In total, 547 unique patients were studied comprising 245 males (44.8%), median age 70.6 years, median FEV1% predicted 34%. Overall in-hospital mortality was 19% (n = 104); median survival was 1.7 years. In univariate analysis, a longer time between hospital presentation to diagnosis of AHRF was associated with in-hospital mortality (median [IQR]: 8.7 [0.7-75.8] hours vs. 1.9 [0.3-13.6] hours, p < 0.0001). In multivariable logistic regression, significant predictors of in-hospital mortality were AHRF >24 h after hospital presentation (odds ratio [95% CI]: 2.29 [1.33-3.95], p = 0.003), pneumonia on admission (1.81 [1.07-3.08], p = 0.027), increased age (1.10 [1.07-1.14], p < 0.001) and NIV as ceiling of treatment (5.86 [2.87-11.94], p < 0.001). Hospitalised COPD patients with late presentation of AHRF, requiring acute ward-based NIV, may have increased in-hospital mortality. These patients may benefit from closer monitoring and earlier specialist respiratory review.

Quick Sequential (Sepsis Related) Organ Failure Assessment: A high performance rapid prognostication tool in patients having acute pyelonephritis with upper urinary tract calculi.

PurposeTo analyze the utility of quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) in patients with uro-sepsis due to acute pyelonephritis (APN) with upper urinary tract calculi, we conducted this study. The role of qSOFA as a tool for rapid prognostication in patients with sepsis is emerging. But there has been a great debate on its utility. Literature regarding utility of qSOFA in uro-sepsis is scarce.Materials and MethodsOurs was a retrospective study including 162 consecutive patients who were admitted for APN with upper urinary tract calculi over a 3 and half years (total 42 months) period. We evaluated the accuracy of qSOFA in predicting inhospital mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and compared this with the predictive accuracy of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS). We used the Area Under Curve (AUC) of the Receiver Operator Characteristic curve to calculate it and also calculated the optimum cut off for qSOFA score.ResultsThe overall mortality and ICU admission rates were 7.4% and 12.9%, respectively. qSOFA had a higher predictive accuracy for in-hospital mortality (AUC, 0.981; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.962–1.000) and ICU admissions (AUC, 0.977; 95% CI, 0.955–0.999) than SIRS. A qSOFA score of ≥2 was an optimum cut off for predicting prognosis. In a multivariate model qSOFA ≥2 was a highly significant predictor of in-hospital mortality and ICU admissions (p<0.001).ConclusionsqSOFA is a reliable and rapid bedside tool in patients with sepsis with accuracy more than SIRS in predicting inhospital mortality and ICU admissions.

Injury Severity Score alone predicts mortality when compared to EMS scene time and transport time for motor vehicle trauma patients who arrive alive to hospital

ABSTRACTObjective: This study aims to identify the association, if any, between prehospital scene time, prehospital transport time, and Injury Severity Score (ISS) with in-hospital mortality.Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed on patients at least 18 years of age who arrived to the hospital alive via emergency medical services (EMS) after a motor vehicle collision (MVC) between 1992 and 2016. These patients were divided into groups based on minutes spent at the scene and in transport. The ISS of the in-hospital mortalities, as well as the entire patient sample for each time frame, was collected. Patients without documented scene time, transport time, or ISS were excluded.Results: Four thousand one hundred ninety-four patients were captured when analyzing scene time, though only 3,980 met inclusion criteria. In addition, 4,177 patients were captured when analyzing transport time, though only 3,979 met inclusion criteria. Scene time and transport time were not statistically significant predictors of in-hospital mortality (P = .31 and P = .458, respectively). ISS was found to be a statistically significant predictor of in-hospital mortality (P < .001).Conclusions: ISS predicts mortality independent of scene time or transport time for patients who arrive to the hospital alive following an MVC at Guthrie Robert Packer Hospital. Limitations of our study include inability to capture prehospital deaths and inability to correlate ISS with prehospital injury severity scores.

Predictors of mortality after pelvic fractures: a retrospective cohort study from a level one trauma centre in Upper Egypt.

The primary objective was to identify the predictors of in-hospital mortality after pelvic ring injuries. Secondary objectives were to analyze the differences between adults and children and to analyze the causes and timing of death. A retrospective cohort study from the pelvic registry of Assiut University Trauma Unit (AUTU), a level 1 trauma centre in Upper Egypt, was carried out. A total of 1188 consecutive patients with pelvic ring fractures treated from January 2010 to December 2013 were eligible for analysis. Potential predictors were identified using standard statistical tests: univariable and multivariable regression analysis. Nine hundred fifty-one were adults (above 16years) and 237 were children. According to Tile's classification, fractures type A, B, and C were 31.8%, 25.1%, and 43.1%, respectively. About a third of patients had fractures with soft tissue injury. Abdominopelvic collection as diagnosed by Focused Assessment with Sonography for Trauma (FAST) was positive in 11%. Associated injuries were present in 67.3% with abdominal-urogenital injuries being the most prevalent (66.3%). Median hospital stay was fivedays. Fifty-two patients (4.4%) were admitted to the ICU. One hundred three patients died (8.7%) within two peaks: first 24hours and between 48hours and oneweek. Multivariable logistic regression analysis identified increasing age, fractures with soft tissue injury, associated head injury, positive FAST examination, and admission to an ICU as significant predictors of in-hospital mortality. The first 24hours were confirmed to be critical for survival in pelvic fracture patients. Advancing age, associated soft tissue injury, associated head injury, admission to ICU, and positive FAST examination can serve as reliable predictors for an elevated mortality risk in such patients.

Are changes in objective observations or the patient’s subjective feelings the day after admission the best predictors of in-hospital mortality? An observational study in a low-resource sub-Saharan hospital

BackgroundThe first clinical re-assessment after admission to hospital probably provides the best opportunity to detect clinical deterioration or failure to improve, and decide if care should be intensified. AimCompare changes the day after admission in the patient’s subjective feelings and objective findings that included age, gender, the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) on admission, gait stability and mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) on admission, and changes in NEWS, gait stability and mental alertness. SettingAcutely ill medical patients admitted to a low-resource sub-Saharan hospital. MethodsProspective observational study. Results1810 patients were reassessed 18 h after hospital admission. Logistic regression identified NEWS and gait stability on admission, a subjective feeling of improvement, the change in NEWS, and MUAC as clinically significant predictors of in-hospital mortality. Stratifying patients according to their NEWS on admission altered the predictive value of the four other predictors: for patients with an admission NEWS < 3 a subjective feeling of improvement is the most powerful predictor of a good outcome. For patients with an admission NEWS > = 3 the change in NEWS, gait stability on admission and MUAC provide additional prognostic information. ConclusionNEWS and gait stability on admission, MUAC, a subjective feeling of improvement, and change in NEWS the day after admission are all clinically significant predictors of in-hospital mortality.

Infections and internal medicine patients: Could a comorbidity score predict in-hospital mortality?

Infectious diseases (ID) are frequently cause of internal medicine wards (IMW) admission. We aimed to evaluate risk factors for in-hospital mortality (IHM) in IMW patients with ID, and to test the usefulness of a comorbidity score (CS).This study included ID hospital admissions between January 2013, and December 2016, recorded in the database of the local hospital. ICD-9-CM codes were selected to identify infections, development of sepsis, and to calculate a CS.We analyzed 12,173 records, (age 64.8 ± 25.1 years, females 66.2%, sepsis 9.3%). Deceased subjects (1545, 12.7%) were older, had higher percentage of sepsis, pulmonary infections, and endocarditis. Mean value of CS was also significantly higher. At multivariate analysis, the odds ratio (OR) for sepsis (OR 5.961), endocarditis (OR 4.247), pulmonary infections (OR 1.905), other sites of infection (OR 1.671), and urinary tracts infections (OR 0.548), were independently associated with IHM. The CS (OR 1.070 per unit of increasing score), was independently associated with IHM as well. The calculated weighted risk, obtained by multiplying 1.070 for the mean score value in deceased patients, was 19.367. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis showed that CS and development of sepsis were significant predictors for IHM (area under the curve, AUC: 0.724 and 0.670, respectively).Careful evaluation of comorbidity in internal medicine patients is nowadays matter of extreme importance in IMW patients hospitalized for ID, being IHM related to severity of disease, type and site of infection, and also to concomitant comorbidities. In these patients, a careful evaluation of CS should represent a fundamental step in the disease management.

The influence of payor status on outcomes associated with surgical repair of upper gastrointestinal perforations due to peptic ulcer disease in the United States

BackgroundAn association between lack of insurance and inferior outcomes has been well described for a number of surgical emergencies, yet little is known about the relationship of payor status and outcomes of patients undergoing emergent surgical repair for upper gastrointestinal (UGI) perforations. We evaluated the association of payor status and in-hospital mortality for patients undergoing emergency surgery for UGI perforations in the United States. MethodsNationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) was queried to identify patients between 18 and 64 years of age who underwent emergent (open or laparoscopic) repair for UGI perforations secondary to peptic ulcer disease (2010–2014). Primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes were major and minor postoperative complications. The main predictor outcome was insurance status (Private, Medicaid, Uninsured). Univariate and multivariable regression analyses were performed. Data were weighted to provide national estimates. Results21,005 patients underwent surgical repair for UGI perforations. Patients with private insurance represented the largest payor group (47%). After adjustment of other factors, payor status was not a statistically significant predictor of in-hospital mortality (Medicaid vs. Private: [OR] 1.1; 95% [CI] 0.67–1.81; Uninsured vs. Private: OR 0.9, 95% CI 0.52–1.61). However, payor status remained a statistically significant predictor of major postoperative complications (Medicaid vs. Private [OR] 1.4; 95% CI 1.1, 1.8; Uninsured vs. Private [OR]1.2, 95% CI 0.9, 1.5) and minor postoperative complications (Medicaid vs. Private [OR] 1.4; 95% CI 1.1, 1.9; Uninsured vs. Private [OR]1.2, 95% CI 0.9, 1.6). ConclusionsEmergency surgery for UGI perforations is associated with high mortality and morbidity across all payor classes; however, Medicaid is a predictor for both major and minor postoperative complications. Preventing perforation through preventative measures will be key to reducing the burden of peptic ulcer disease across all populations.

The Surgeon Volume-outcome Relationship: Not Yet Ready for Policy.

Increasing surgeon volume may improve outcomes for index operations. We hypothesized that there may be surrogate operative experiences that yield similar outcomes for surgeons with a low-volume experience with a specific index operation, such as esophagectomy. The relationship between surgeon volume and outcomes has potential implications for credentialing of surgeons. Restrictions of privileges based on surgeon volume are only reasonable if there is no substitute for direct experience with the index operation. This study was aimed at determining whether there are valid surrogates for direct experience with a sample index operation-open esophagectomy. The Nationwide Inpatient Sample (2003-2009) was utilized. Surgeons were stratified into low and high-volume groups based on annual volume of esophagectomy. Surrogate volume was defined as the aggregate annual volume per surgeon of upper gastrointestinal operations including excision of esophageal diverticulum, gastrectomy, gastroduodenectomy, and repair of diaphragmatic hernia. In all, 26,795 esophagectomies were performed nationwide (2003-2009), with a crude inhospital mortality rate of 5.2%. Inhospital mortality decreased with increasing volume of esophagectomies performed annually: 7.7% and 3.8% for low and high-volume surgeons, respectively (P < 0.0001). Among surgeons with a low-volume esophagectomy experience, increasing volume of surrogate operations improved the outcomes observed for esophagectomy: 9.7%, 7.1%, and 4.3% for low, medium, and high-surrogate-volume surgeons, respectively (P = 0.016). Both operation-specific volume and surrogate volume are significant predictors of inhospital mortality for esophagectomy. Based on these observations, it would be premature to limit hospital privileges based solely on operation-specific surgeon volume criteria.

Association of plasma neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin with acute kidney injury and clinical outcome in cardiac arrest survivors depends on the time of measurement

Purpose: The optimal timing for measurement of neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) level to predict acute kidney injury (AKI) and prognosis in cardiac arrest (CA) survivors has not been elucidated. We aimed to compare the diagnostic and prognostic performance of NGAL levels after return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) and at 48 h after CA.Methods: We included 231 adult cardiac arrest survivors who underwent targeted temperature management between May 2013 and December 2016. The primary outcome was stage 2 and 3 AKI (high stage AKI), and the secondary outcomes were in-hospital mortality and neurologic outcome. Sixty-one (26.4%) developed high stage AKI, 50 (21.6%) died, and 152 (65.8%) had a poor neurologic outcome.Results: NGAL level at 48 h (0.876; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.826–0.916) had a higher area under receiver operating characteristic curve than NGAL level after ROSC (0.694; 95% CI, 0.631–0.753). Both NGAL levels were independently associated with high stage AKI. NGAL level at 48 h (1.001; 95% CI, 1.000–1.002) remained a significant predictor for in-hospital mortality, while neither of the NGAL levels were independently associated with neurologic outcome.Conclusions: NGAL at 48 h after CA seems to be a robust predictor for high stage AKI and in-hospital mortality.

A High Level of Blood Urea Nitrogen Is a Significant Predictor for In-hospital Mortality in Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction.

High levels of blood urea nitrogen (BUN) have been demonstrated to significantly predict poor prognosis in patients with acute decompensated heart failure. However, this relationship has not been fully investigated in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). We investigated whether a high level of BUN is a significant predictor for in-hospital mortality and other clinical outcomes in patients with AMI. The Japanese registry of acute Myocardial INfarction diagnosed by Universal dEfiniTion (J-MINUET) is a prospective, observational, multicenter study conducted in 28 institutions, in which 3,283 consecutive AMI patients were enrolled. We excluded 98 patients in whom BUN levels were not recorded at admission and 190 patients who were undergoing hemodialysis. A total of 2,995 patients were retrospectively analyzed. BUN tertiles were 1.5-14.4 mg/dL (tertile 1), 14.5-19.4 mg/dL (tertile 2), and 19.5-240 mg/dL (tertile 3). Increasing tertiles of BUN were associated with stepwise increased risk of in-hospital mortality (2.5, 5.1, and 11%, respectively; P < 0.001). These relationships were also observed after adjusting for reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (estimated GFR < 60 mL/minute/1.73 m2) or Killip classifications. In multivariable analysis, high levels of BUN significantly predicted in-hospital mortality, after adjusting for creatinine and other known predictors (BUN tertile 3 versus 1, adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 2.59, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.57-4.25, P < 0.001; BUN tertile 2 versus 1, adjusted OR: 1.60, 95% CI: 0.94-2.73, P = 0.081). A high level of BUN could be a useful predictor of in-hospital mortality in AMI patients.

Novel risk stratification with time course assessment of in-hospital mortality in patients with acute heart failure

BackgroundPatients with acute heart failure (AHF) show various clinical courses during hospitalization. We aimed to identify time course predictors of in-hospital mortality and to establish a sequentially assessable risk model.Methods and resultsWe enrolled 1,035 consecutive AHF patients into derivation (n = 597) and validation (n = 438) cohorts. For risk assessments at admission, we utilized Get With the Guidelines-Heart Failure (GWTG-HF) risk scores. We examined significant predictors of in-hospital mortality from 11 variables obtained during hospitalization and developed a risk stratification model using multiple logistic regression analysis. Across both cohorts, 86 patients (8.3%) died during hospitalization. Using backward stepwise selection, we identified five time-course predictors: catecholamine administration, minimum platelet concentration, maximum blood urea nitrogen, total bilirubin, and C-reactive protein levels; and established a time course risk score that could sequentially assess a patient's risk status. The addition of a time course risk score improved the discriminative ability of the GWTG-HF risk score (c-statistics in derivation and validation cohorts: 0.776 to 0.888 [p = 0.002] and 0.806 to 0.902 [p<0.001], respectively). A calibration plot revealed a good relationship between observed and predicted in-hospital mortalities in both cohorts (Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square statistics: 6.049 [p = 0.642] and 5.993 [p = 0.648], respectively). In each group of initial low-intermediate risk (GWTG-HF risk score <47) and initial high risk (GWTG-HF risk score ≥47), in-hospital mortality was about 6- to 9-fold higher in the high time course risk score group than in the low-intermediate time course risk score group (initial low-intermediate risk group: 20.3% versus 2.2% [p<0.001], initial high risk group: 57.6% versus 8.5% [p<0.001]).ConclusionsA time course assessment related to in-hospital mortality during the hospitalization of AHF patients can clearly categorize a patient's on-going status, and may assist patients and clinicians in deciding treatment options.

Transcatheter and Surgical Management of Mitral Paravalvular Leak: Long-Term Outcomes

ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to report the use trends and immediate and long-term outcomes of a large cohort of patients who underwent redo surgery or transcatheter repair of paravalvular leaks (PVLs) at a tertiary referral center. BackgroundPercutaneous treatment of mitral PVL has emerged as an alternative to surgical treatment in high-risk surgical candidates. There are limited data on the utilization trends, safety, and efficacy of both procedures in the management of mitral PVL. MethodsPatients who underwent treatment of mitral PVL at the Mayo Clinic between January 1995 and December 2015 were enrolled. Utilization trends, procedural details, technical success, and in-hospital and long-term outcomes were assessed. ResultsThree hundred eighty-one patients underwent percutaneous (n = 195) or surgical (n = 186) treatment of mitral PVLs. The mean age was 66 ± 12 years, and 37% of patients had bioprosthetic valves. Technical success was higher in the surgical group (95.5% vs. 70.1%; p < 0.001). In-hospital major adverse events were more common after surgery (22.5% vs. 7.7%; p < 0.001). In-hospital death occurred in 3.1% and 8.6% of patients undergoing percutaneous and surgical treatment, respectively (p = 0.027). However, in a multivariate logistic regression analysis, only active endocarditis, chronic renal failure, and severe mitral annular calcifications were significant predictors of in-hospital mortality. Reintervention rates were similar (11.3% vs. 17.2% in the percutaneous and surgical groups, respectively; p = 0.10), with the majority of reinterventions in the percutaneous group occurring early because of residual leak or persistent hemolysis. After risk adjustment, there was no significant difference in long-term survival between patients who underwent surgical versus transcatheter treatment of PVLs. ConclusionsIn contemporary practice, patients with symptomatic mitral PVLs are best treated with an integrated team approach incorporating both surgical and percutaneous techniques. Patient selection and timing of intervention are critical to achieve optimal results.