Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Background Ischemic heart disease and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) are the number one causes of death and disability, affecting around 126 million individuals worldwide [1]. About 30% of all cases of AMI lead to death. According to different sources, 8-20% of people with AMI die within 1 year of the event, and every second patient is rehospitalized [1-2]. Thus, it is necessary to assess the risk and to predict the outcomes during the first admission to the hospital, in order to guide the management and treatment after AMI [2]. Conventional risk rating scales and methods have a lot of drawbacks, so novel approaches such as artificial intelligence (AI) and deep learning (DL) methods have the potential to provide an accurate risk assessment and share decision-making in patients who experienced AMI [3-4]. Purpose To develop and validate a deep-learning-based risk stratification model to predict the 12-months mortality in patients with AMI. Methods A cohort of 250 AMI patients with Killip class I-IV was enrolled in the study. The data was collected on the admission day and a year after the event and included anamnesis as well as the results of the physical and laboratory-instrumental examination (72 values). All patients were randomly divided into 2 groups: the derivation cohort, which consisted of 215 individuals, and the validation cohort consisted of 35 patients. Our model was created using the Python programming language in GoogleColab and it is a convolutional neural network (CNN) with 1 input layer, 4 hidden layers, and 1 output layer consisting of neurons with a sigmoid activation function (Fig. 1). We used MaxAbsScaler for data normalization and Adam for optimization. Also, we calculated the GRACE risk score and compared the performance of the models only for the validation cohort that was not used for the model development. Results We developed our DL-based model using the derivation data during the 30 cycles of work, receiving the maximum value of training accuracy of 96.7%. The mortality risk, calculated by our model for the validation group was compared with real 12-months mortality, and the CNN "lied" only 2 times (Table 1). The test of the validation cohort showed such results of our DL-based model: 94% - accuracy, 71% - sensitivity, 100% - specificity, 100% - positive, and 93% - negative prognostic value. These results significantly outperformed the GRACE scale, which showed 63%, 71%, 54%, 26%, and 94% respectively. Conclusions In summary, we develop and validate a DL-based risk stratification model to predict the 12-months mortality in patients with AMI. The accuracy of the created model is significantly higher than conventional risk scales (GRACE score). Thus, it is proved that algorithms based on deep learning may be more effective to predict mortality and guide the management of cardiac patients.
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