ABSTRACT Assessments of passerine–habitat relationships in shrub tundra regions are rare, limiting our understanding of the effects of shrub expansion. Further, previous studies of shrub tundra passerines have primarily assessed variation in abundance as a function of deciduous shrub cover in the aggregate, which assumes a uniform response across shrub species. Here, I assess variation in the density of twelve shrub-adapted passerines as a function of Alnus, Betula, and upright Salix shrub cover at six above–tree line sites in sub-Arctic and Arctic Alaska. I also assess variation in the density of four tundra-adapted passerines as a function of lichen, wet sedge, Dryas dwarf shrub, and Eriophorum vaginatum cover. I fit models to passerine data collected from 2015 to 2024 consisting of the individual encounter locations, allowing fine-scale assessment of density under a point process framework. Passerines adapted to alpine tundra showed positive responses to lichen cover, whereas the lone arctic tundra species exhibited a positive response to Eriophorum vaginatum. With one exception, shrub-adapted passerines showed weak to negative responses to Betula shrub cover and strong, positive responses to Salix shrub cover. Thus, use of the genus-specific covariates has a greater capacity for explaining variation in bird density and for understanding the effects of shrub expansion.

ABSTRACT Influenced by climate change and human activities, shrub encroachment in global arid and semi-arid grasslands profoundly affects ecosystem functions and livestock farming. Remote sensing technology is crucial for evaluating shrub encroachment across spatial and temporal scales, providing a broader perspective for understanding its driving mechanisms. The shrub encroachment dominated by Caragana vegetation in the Inner Mongolia grasslands is typical both in China and globally. However, the lack of remote sensing studies hinders a deeper understanding of the current status and causes of shrub encroachment in this region. This study focuses on the semi-arid grasslands in central Inner Mongolia, estimating shrub coverage based on vegetation indices, SAR backscatter coefficients, phenological metrics, and the extreme gradient boosting algorithm. A new Remote Sensing-based Shrub Encroachment Index (RSSEI) was established to assess the stage of shrub encroachment. The complex driving mechanisms of shrub encroachment were innovatively elucidated through the integrated application of Geographical Detector (GD) and Geographical Convergent Cross Mapping (GCCM). The results show that the shrub coverage estimation model achieved high accuracy (R2 = 0.70, RMSE = 4.0%, MAE = 2.7%), with the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) value indicating the significant role of phenological metrics in estimating shrub coverage. The RSSEI was found to grade shrub encroachment stages more accurately, with overall accuracy reaching 74.6%. Moderate to severe encroached grasslands dominate the study area, exhibiting an east-high and west-low spatial distribution. GD and GCCM indicated that moisture-related factors, including precipitation, soil water content, and vapor pressure deficit, were the main driving forces of shrub encroachment. And shrub encroachment has a significant causal influence on 2 m-height air temperature. This study provides an improving technical reference for remote sensing observation of shrub encroachment in semi-arid grasslands and is also valuable for understanding the formation causes and feedback effects of shrub encroachment in these areas.

Forests store carbon in wood, forest floor, and soil. Carbon stock and distribution between these compartments differ across forests. The Monfragüe National Park (West Spain) is home to a variety of forests resulting from contrasting land use histories. These include holm and cork oak (Quercus ilex and Q. suber) dehesas (open forests with low-intensity agro-silvo-pastoral use), and pine (Pinus pinaster) and eucalypt (Eucalyptus camaldulensis) plantations, which pursued wood production. These uses ceased decades ago. Part of the former eucalypt plantations was removed and planted with native oaks, but the restoration failed leading to a Cistus ladanifer shrubland. In these five vegetation types, we assessed carbon stock and partitioning among above- (tree and shrub canopy, and forest floor) and belowground compartments (roots and soil); we also assessed tree health, and potential for tree regeneration as indicators of carbon stock persistence. We measured tree dimensions, shrub cover and height, and collected forest floor and soil samples for organic carbon analyses. Allometric equations were used to estimate tree and shrub carbon stocks. Plantations were expected to show a less diverse undercanopy but higher carbon stocks than dehesas, whereas dehesas were expected to allocate a greater proportion of carbon belowground, and to exhibit better tree health and regeneration. Total carbon was the highest in the pine and eucalypt plantations, followed by oak dehesas and minimum in the C. ladanifer shrubland. The shrub layer contributed more to the total carbon stock in the C. ladanifer shrubland and in the eucalypt plantation (13-14%), but ≤ 2% in the pine plantation and in the dehesas. The belowground carbon fraction was greatest in the oak dehesas (c.a. 60%), followed by the pine (55%) and eucalypt (46%) plantations. C. ladanifer shrubland showed an unexpectedly high proportion of carbon in the soil, probably due to legacy effects of the former plantation. Tree health was poorest in eucalypts, followed by cork oaks, while pines and holm oaks showed a better condition. Tree regeneration was poor in all forest types, likely due to canopy competition (plantations) and herbivory (dehesas). Although pine and eucalypt plantations store more total carbon, oak dehesas offer more stable storage due to higher belowground carbon. However, regeneration failure threatens their long-term persistence. Our results show that past land use largely determines forest capacity to store and retain carbon over the long term. Enhancing forest resilience should be a central goal of management aimed at strengthening carbon sink services.

ABSTRACTOpen terrestrial ecosystems such as savannas have been experiencing marked increases in woody cover driven by shrub encroachment. Despite this widespread pattern, understanding the consequences for faunal communities remains challenging because long‐term data are often not available and other structural changes, such as changing tree cover, may confound conclusions on shrub encroachment effects. We used satellite data and surveys of bird communities spanning 22 years to assess vegetation‐cover dynamics and its effects on bird communities across the savanna ecosystem of Eswatini. We employed a hierarchical multi‐species occupancy model that accounted for imperfect detection to assess changes in species occurrence, richness, and community assemblages. Between 1998 and 2020, shrub cover increased from 16% to 44% and tree cover increased from 17% to 28%. Across 64 species, shrub cover tended to have greater effects on bird occupancy than tree cover, with 34 (53%) species exhibiting positive linear associations with shrub cover and 15 (23.4%) species exhibiting a non‐linear response to shrubs, where occupancy peaked at < 50% shrub cover. Shrub cover generated non‐linear responses across all four bird diet groups and four of the five nesting groups. Species richness increased over time, with changes in the composition of bird assemblages being driven more by changes in shrub than tree cover. With recent predictions indicating a potential increase in shrub cover that is driven by global factors, community‐wide changes in bird communities may intensify. To minimize negative consequences of changes in bird communities, land managers should initiate and expand existing woody cover management regimes in southern African savannas, where shrub cover remains high.

ABSTRACT Forest ecosystems play a critical role in the global carbon cycle. As a significant terrestrial carbon sink, plantations exhibit carbon stock patterns that are shaped by tree species composition, stand structure, and environmental conditions. Here, we investigated typical plantation types in the Mufu Mountain, Hubei Province. Total carbon stock and its distribution across different stand types were quantified by establishing permanent monitoring plots and conducting tree surveys, applying general biomass models to estimate biomass, and employing elemental analysis to measure soil carbon content. Our results indicated that total carbon stock ranged from 37,452.54 to 184,909.38 kg/ha among six forest subplots in the Mufu Mountain. Broadleaf and coniferous stands accumulated substantially more carbon than Phyllostachys edulis (Carrière) J. Houz. forests. Higher soil temperature, illuminance, and increased shrub cover promoted carbon accumulation in trees and shrubs. In contrast, multiple environmental factors regulated carbon stock in herbaceous plants, litter, and soil organic matter, demonstrating clear carbon pool‐specific effects. Our findings clarify key environmental drivers of carbon dynamics in subtropical plantations, and based on these results, we propose concrete management strategies including the selection of high‐carbon stock tree species, maintenance of understory shrub layers, and implementation of strategic canopy thinning to enhance forest carbon sequestration.

Use of uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) and regression tree modeling to calculate fractional shrub cover for greater sage-grouse microhabitat

ABSTRACT As high latitudes warm, there is limited knowledge of how rapidly changing species composition and density, combined with shifting precipitation and thawing permafrost, will affect critical zone water fluxes across the subarctic. Here, we use stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen to assess the role of soil moisture, precipitation dynamics and plant species on the timing, magnitude and sources of plant water uptake at three sites along an elevational gradient in a subarctic, alpine catchment in southern Yukon, Canada. The sites ranged from a low‐elevation boreal forest to higher elevation shrub taiga with variable shrub cover. We sampled soil and xylem water approximately every 3 weeks from pre‐leaf out to post‐senescence over two hydrologically distinct years. We answer the questions: (1) What are the seasonal and interannual changes in the isotopic composition of soil and xylem water across this range of subarctic vegetation covers?, (2) How does the seasonal origin of xylem water vary in wet and dry conditions? and (3) Do different shrub species at the same location rely on different sources of water? Results showed that while δ 2 H and δ 18 O of volume weighted precipitation became more negative with elevation, the opposite was true of xylem water. Despite less snowfall at lower elevations, plant water uptake was more reflective of snow water at the forest than at the high elevation shrub sites. Near‐surface bulk soil water had lower line‐conditioned excess at the forest than at the shrub sites throughout the season and with depth, highlighting increased contributions from soil evaporation at the forest. Differences in annual precipitation and climate had a strong influence on stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen in the soil. These results demonstrate that vegetation type and elevation strongly mediate plant water sourcing and evaporative partitioning in subarctic catchments, underscoring the need to account for species‐specific and landscape‐scale variability when predicting blue/green water fluxes in a changing climate.

Vegetation in urban green spaces plays a critical role in mitigating surface heat, yet the magnitude of this effect remains uncertain across scales and measurement methods. This study assesses the cooling performance during the summer of 94 green spaces in three Chilean cities—classified in three types according to their size—combining satellite-derived land surface temperature (LST) data with high-resolution in situ thermal imaging. We performed comparisons of the cooling effects of green spaces and their components (vegetation, impermeable and semi-permeable surfaces). Spearman’s correlation analysis, the Mann-Whitney U test and Kruskal-Wallis and Dunn post hoc were used to evaluate associations and differences. Results demonstrate that vegetation quantity and composition—particularly tree and shrub cover—are key determinants of cooling performance. In situ measurements reveal that green spaces are on average 9.3 °C cooler than their urban surroundings, substantially exceeding differences captured by LST. Additionally, shaded surfaces within green spaces exhibit temperature reductions of 12 °C to 17 °C compared to sun-exposed areas, underscoring the role of vegetation in mitigating surface heat extremes. These findings challenge the sole reliance on remote sensing for urban heat assessments and highlight the value of integrating ground-based observations. This study advances understanding of vegetation’s localized cooling potential in Latin American cities and provides actionable insights for urban climate resilience planning.

Abstract Climate warming is expected to increase upslope shifts of alpine treelines globally. However, the ecological filters controlling tree recruitment in the alpine belt remain poorly quantified, limiting accurate predictions of treeline responses to climate change. To fill this gap, we conducted a decade‐long, factorial field experiment at abrupt (Ordesa) and diffuse (Tessó) Pinus uncinata treelines located in the Spanish Pyrenees. Our experimental treatments manipulated seed addition, herbivory exclusion, shrub competition and soil scarification. We monitored seedling presence and abundance annually and analysed their interactions with climate variables, specifically growing‐season temperature and snow depth. Seedling recruitment at alpine treelines was strongly filter‐limited and varied between sites. Seed addition enhanced emergence at both treeline types, with a steeper, density‐dependent response at the diffuse treeline. Herbivore exclusion (1‐mm mesh) consistently increased seedling densities across cohorts, underscoring herbivory as a critical biotic filter. Climatic and biotic factors interacted to shape establishment: at the abrupt treeline, warmer growing‐season maxima and dense shrub cover suppressed recruitment, while snow depth exerted contrasting effects across cohorts, from protective to limiting. At the diffuse treeline, year‐one seedlings peaked at intermediate growing‐season maximum temperatures under low shrub cover, whereas older cohorts showed more variable responses, occasionally persisting under dense shrubs when cooler growing season and deeper snow provided facilitative microclimatic conditions. These patterns highlight that both propagule supply and the interplay of climatic stress and biotic interactions jointly determine early recruitment above treeline. Synthesis . Treeline advance under warming occurs only when multiple filters align—adequate seed supply, favourable microclimatic windows, moderated herbivory and shrub effects that remain facilitative rather than competitive. Because these filters are context‐ and life‐stage dependent, forecasts must move beyond climate envelopes to integrate fine‐scale propagule dynamics, episodic heat/snow extremes and density‐dependent biotic interactions. Models coupling these processes with long‐term observations will better predict forest–tundra change.

The Loess Plateau (China) is an ecologically fragile region where understanding the impact of forest naturalness on soil carbon content is critical for ecological restoration and enhancing carbon sequestration. This study investigates this relationship in the Cuiying Mountain area (Yuzhong County, Lanzhou City), a representative landscape of the semi-arid Loess Plateau. The Cuiying Mountain ecosystem is characterized by coniferous forests and Gray-cinnamon soils. We assessed forest naturalness using several key indicators: herb coverage, shrub coverage, tree biodiversity, and stand structural attributes. The results revealed a generally low level of forest naturalness at Cuiying Mountain. Although herb coverage was high, shrub coverage was minimal (2.1%), and tree biodiversity was low (Shannon index = 0.09). The stand structure was simple, characterized by considerable variation in individual tree sizes and a single canopy layer (mean mingling degree = 0.14). This structural simplicity aligns with the area’s history of plantation management. Furthermore, analysis of soil physicochemical properties and their relationship with plant diversity identified plant diversity as a significant factor influencing soil carbon content. The strongest correlation was observed between plant species number and topsoil organic carbon (r = 0.77), indicating a particularly pronounced effect of plant diversity on surface soil organic carbon. In summary, while forest naturalness at Cuiying Mountain is generally low, increased plant diversity enhances the accumulation of litter/root exudates and carbonates, suggesting that enhancing plant diversity is an effective strategy for increasing total soil carbon content. This study provides valuable insights for refining ecological restoration practices and strengthening the soil carbon sink function in forest ecosystems across the Loess Plateau and similar semi-arid regions.

All groups of macrofungi were monitored on 32 decaying trunks of Norway spruce in Białowieża National Park, Poland. Spruce is a declining keystone species there. By means of a fruitbody-based survey, we captured 272 species in total, with 11–63 species per trunk. We registered 59 species of the Polish Red list and 30 species unpublished from Białowieża National Park, especially ones with inconspicuous fruitbodies. Detailed monitoring proved to be an effective way to capture them. The species number on individual trunks was significantly correlated with decay stage, shrub cover above the fallen trunks and trunk diameter. The most species-rich trunks were those in decay stages II and III, simultaneously having the largest diameter and shrub cover. These had the highest diversity, some even in comparison with previously published data. The species composition significantly reflected the different decay stages, trunk contact with the soil, trunk diameter, and shrub cover. Increased shrub cover was accompanied by a rich occurrence of corticioids and small agarics, apparently supported by a humid microclimate under the canopy of young trees. A total of 48 species were classified as generally rare, preferring natural forests, or associated with boreal/montane ecosystems. The most interesting of them, e.g. Amylocystis lapponica , Antrodiella citrinella , Crustoderma dryinum , Fomitopsis rosea , and Steccherinum gracile , were mainly associated with trunks having less contact with the soil. The funga of dead spruce wood in the Białowieża forest is enormously rich. It is distinguished by the occurrence of some extremely rare species ( Cyphelloporia bialoviesensis , Gloeocystidiellum sibiricum , Mucronella pulchra ) and rare boreal or boreal-montane elements ( Asterodon ferruginosus , Boreostereum radiatum , Ceriporiopsis jelicii , Dichostereum boreale , Pycnoporellus alboluteus , Tricholomopsis sulphureoides ). To preserve this diversity, measures will be needed at both the global and local level.

Abstract Studies of climate change in the Andes predict an upward trend in temperatures and increased variability in precipitation patterns. Though these changes in environmental conditions will impact plant species, community assembly, and ecosystem processes, the magnitude of these impacts is still not well understood. To examine these concerns, we analyzed the ecological impacts of climate change in a valley in the Andes of Peru. We used L-Range, a spatially explicit ecosystem-process model, to simulate ecosystems’ response to climate change. L-Range simulates monthly primary aboveground production and plant population dynamics. Implementing L-Range required parametrizing 54 climatic, edaphic, and plant variables for cover classes and using landscape and climatic information. We used outputs from three climate models to capture the ecosystems’ potential response to changes in temperature and precipitation. The impacts of climate change will vary across cover classes, scenarios, and location. Woodlands will become more productive under future climate conditions (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). Shrublands and grasslands will increase their productivity only under the intermediate emissions scenario (RCP 4.5). In contrast, the productivity of wetlands will decline under future climate conditions (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). Changes in herbaceous plants (forbs, grasses, and graminoids) and shrub cover will be minimal across the cover classes. Bare cover is projected to increase across all cover classes under future climate conditions. The largest increases are expected in wetlands (ranging from 23% to 44%), compared to grasslands and shrublands (each about 8%) and woodlands (12%). Changes of herbaceous plants, shrubs, bare cover and productivity will be spatially heterogeneous across the watershed. We identified the ecological processes, ecosystem attributes, and cover classes that will be more affected by climate change, along with the areas where these changes are likely to occur. In this way, our study provides information that can be used as a basis to develop conservation and restoration strategies, such as identifying priority areas for revegetation and establishing livestock exclusion zones.

Key structural attributes of Mediterranean reforestations for avian diversity conservation: comparisons with mature forests.

Socioecological determinants of dog ownership in Mara region, Tanzania.

Abstract Nesting success of northern bobwhites ( Colinus virginianus ) is related to the interaction of habitat and predators because vegetation can act as a buffer to obscure visual and olfactory nest cues. While vegetation characteristics increasing nest site selection are well established, evidence of which particular characteristics, if any, improve nest success is conflicting. We aimed to determine whether bobwhites choose nest sites with characteristics that also influence nest survival. We studied bobwhite in the Rolling Plains of Texas, where variable precipitation and widespread agriculture have particularly large impacts on quail habitat. Across 2 breeding seasons, we monitored nest fates and measured vegetation characteristics at 211 nests and paired random sites within 200 m of each nest. We found that bobwhites selected nest substrates 42 cm in height on average, with more grass and shrub cover but less bare ground than the surrounding available habitat. A higher proportion of grass at nest sites, greater visual obstruction at and surrounding nests, and less litter cover in the area surrounding a nest corresponded to increased nest survival. Our study highlights the importance of continued management practices—such as grazing management, disking, and prescribed burning—as key strategies for enhancing bobwhite nesting success in semi‐arid environments.

Riparian ecosystems are highly diverse and dynamic, but effects of fire on riparian vegetation are poorly understood. In 2020, widespread wildfires impacted forests across the western Oregon Cascades, including riparian areas. To investigate riparian plant community recovery, we quantified riparian vegetation responses to wildfire and forest management. We determined that vegetation response to burn severity varied by structural layer and was dynamic across the first three years post-fire. Overstory mortality after wildfire varied by species. In the understory, forb cover recovered rapidly; shrub cover and richness showed some recovery within three years. Indicator species highlighted compositional differences between sites that burned and those that did not. Although riparian zones are thought to be resilient to wildfire, our results demonstrate megafires can significantly alter them, resulting in extensive initial and delayed mortality, and dynamic regrowth. Globally, riparian zones are increasingly exposed to wildfire, and understanding factors influencing their recovery is critical.

ABSTRACTThe composition of high‐latitude plant communities has changed over the past decades in response to several global change drivers. However, less is known about how these compositional long‐term changes are reflected in the total cover of plant species that do or do not interact with pollinators. Using species‐specific indicator values for pollinator dependence and nectar production, we provide empirical evidence on how compositional changes in vascular plant communities over the past 50 years are reflected in the cover of pollinator‐dependent and pollinator‐independent plants, as well as the cover of pollen‐ and nectar‐rewarding and non‐nectar plants, in two ecosystems in northern Fennoscandia. We show that the average cover of pollinator‐independent plants greatly increased in both tundra and herb‐rich forest communities over time. Average cover of pollinator‐dependent plants slightly increased in tundra but decreased in herb‐rich forests. The average cover of pollen‐nectar plants increased in the tundra but decreased in herb‐rich forests over time. At the same time, the cover of non‐nectar plants increased in both ecosystems. The observed changes were strongly driven by the increased cover of evergreen dwarf shrubs in the tundra and the decline of forb cover in herb‐rich forests. The observed changes were comparable between sites that had been disturbed by human land use and sites that remained in a natural or semi‐natural state. Our results suggest that, in terms of average plant coverage, high‐latitude plant communities have broadly become less dependent on insect pollination over the past 50 years. By documenting long‐term changes in the pollination strategies of high‐latitude plant communities, our study underscores the need to explore how shifts in plant community composition are linked to pollination processes and broader plant–pollinator dynamics. We highlight patterns that warrant further investigation and offer perspectives for future research on plant–pollinator interactions in northern ecosystems under global change.

Abstract In Mediterranean ecosystems, afforestation efforts have created landscapes with high fuel loads and continuity that, in combination with warmer and drier conditions, may intensify fire activity. Yet, the relative contribution of afforestation to current fire severity remains little explored. We hypothesized that, under Mediterranean conditions, pine plantations can generate high‐intensity fires that increase fire severity and show limited post‐fire recovery compared with other vegetation types. We integrated Sentinel‐2 imagery with digital terrain models, vegetation maps, and national forest inventories to assess fire severity (dNBR) and one‐year post‐fire recovery from three large wildfires in Spain. We then used linear models to investigate the patterns of fire severity and early recovery across vegetation types. Change‐point models were applied to pine plantations to evaluate whether reducing tree density beyond a specific point can limit fire severity. Pine plantations exhibited significantly higher severity and lower early recovery than other vegetation types, particularly in areas with high tree densities and abundant shrub cover. Moreover, proximity to pine plantations was associated with increased fire severity in adjacent vegetation, whereas reducing tree density below a threshold of 440 trees/ha mitigated fire severity within plantation stands. Policy implications . Our findings provide quantitative evidence that pine plantations can exacerbate fire severity under contemporary climate conditions, and that, once burned, these areas seldom recover. Effective spatial planning and management of tree plantations is therefore essential in order to promote more sustainable fire regimes in Mediterranean ecosystems. Therefore, carbon mitigation strategies should carefully consider the risk of establishing dense and continuous pine plantations when implementing future afforestation programmes.

Abstract The unprecedented rate of warming in the Arctic is driving changes in the structure and composition of tundra vegetation. Increases in deciduous tall shrub cover, height, and density are of particular concern, as these changes alter local surface albedo in ways that could amplify effects on the regional surface energy budget (SEB). Despite this importance, significant uncertainties remain in understanding the interplay between fine-scale vegetation patterns and emergent albedo dynamics across space and time. Here, we address these uncertainties by (1) quantifying spatiotemporal variation in surface shortwave albedo and (2) determining the relative influence of fine-scale vegetation composition, structure, and environmental conditions on albedo across a representative low-Arctic tundra landscape on Alaska’s Seward Peninsula. To do this, we synthesized multi-scale, multi-platform remote sensing observations, including a novel Landsat-derived albedo time series, a fine-scale map of Arctic plant functional type (PFT) fractional cover, and airborne LiDAR estimates of canopy height and topography. We show that there are substantial reductions in winter albedo for pixels dominated by tall, woody PFTs (28.13%) relative to pixels dominated by non-woody vegetation, but almost no change in summer albedo (3% increase). Further, we identified a unimodal trend in the relationship between canopy height and the timing of the springtime transition from high (snowy) to low (leafy) albedo (peak at 5.5 m), possibly because of competing ‘snow-fence’ and ‘protrusion’ snow-shrub interactions. To explore the primary drivers of albedo, we constructed a random forest model and found that canopy height and the fractional cover of woody PFTs were as- or more important predictors of winter albedo than topographic features. These findings provide strong evidence for the impacts of local vegetation characteristics on regional surface albedo, highlighting the need for better quantification of snow-shrub interactions to accurately predict the Arctic’s SEB under future environmental change.

Abstract Context Climate change may affect the distribution and performance of many high latitude species. Plants producing fleshy, edible fruits are ecologically, economically, and socially important components of Alaskan forests, but the potential impacts of climate change on their regional distribution and local abundance remain largely unknown. Objectives This study investigated how climate change may impact the regional occupancy and local abundance of blueberry (Vaccinium alaskaense and V. ovalifolium) and salmonberry (Rubus spectabilis) in Southeast Alaskan forests and evaluated environmental correlates of their local abundance. Methods Species distribution models were used to compare projected suitability for blueberry and salmonberry presence under historical (1990–2020) and future climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP 3–7.0 and SSP 5–8.5) for 2050, 2075, and 2100 in Southeast Alaskan forests. Relationships between projected suitability and local cover were assessed, as were environmental predictors of local cover. Results Suitability for blueberry and salmonberry presence declined in all future scenarios but was nonetheless projected to remain high. Suitability was positively correlated with the cover of blueberry but not salmonberry in Southeast Alaskan forests. Forest stand attributes including forest type, shrub and tree cover, and stand age and size were often stronger predictors of blueberry and salmonberry cover than climate or topography. Conclusions Regional blueberry and salmonberry occupancy in Southeast Alaska is unlikely to substantially decrease over the twenty-first century, but declining suitability may drive reduced local abundance of blueberry. Relationships between forest conditions and blueberry and salmonberry cover suggest that management actions could promote abundance despite challenges posed by climate change.