Short-term Wind Speed Prediction Research Articles

Informer learning framework based on secondary decomposition for multi-step forecast of ultra-short term wind speed

Accurate and dependable wind speed prediction holds paramount importance in facilitating the dispatch and safe operation of power systems. Nonetheless, the inherent instability of wind speed makes wind speed prediction challenging. Consequently, a short-term wind speed prediction framework, amalgamating secondary decomposition (SD)-Informer, has been proposed in this paper. Initially, the variational mode decomposition (VMD) is applied to decompose the primary wind speed sequence. Through the VMD feature decomposition module, it effectively filters and eliminates superfluous noise from wind speed data. Subsequently, the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise technique is introduced for a secondary decomposition targeting the high-frequency components derived from the initial decomposition. To address the limitation of neural network models in capturing essential information from lengthy sequential data concurrently, a predictive model based on Informer is proposed as wind speed prediction module, thereby enhancing prediction accuracy. The validation of this hybrid model encompasses four distinct time ranges. Multiple models are scrutinized through comparative analysis to ascertain the superior performance of the proposed hybrid model. The root mean square error of the proposed method is reduced by 33.02%、25.46%、24.26%, and 23.12% compared to gate recurrent unit (GRU), vision Transformer (ViT), attention (AT)-ViT, and CNN-atteneion (CA)-Bi-directional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) respectively. The mean absolute error of the proposed method in the first quarter is 0.432, with model comparison values reduction of 36.19%、22.99%、20.44%, and17.71% respectively. The experimental results indicate that the proposed model exhibits a strong capability in capturing the long-term dependencies between the input and output sequences of wind speed. It can perform multi-step predictions while ensuring high prediction accuracy.

High Accuracy Short-term Wind Speed Prediction Methods based on LSTM

High Accuracy Short-term Wind Speed Prediction Methods based on LSTM

Enhanced prediction model of short-term sea surface wind speed: A multiscale feature extraction and selection approach coupled with deep learning technique

Accurate prediction of short-term sea surface wind speed is essential for maritime safety and coastal management. Most conventional studies encounter challenges simply in analyzing raw wind speed sequences and extracting multiscale features directly from the original received data, which result in lower efficiency. In this paper, an enhanced hybrid model based on a novel data assemble method for original received data, a multiscale feature extraction and selection approach, and a predictive network, is proposed for accurate and efficient short-term sea surface wind speed forecasting. Firstly, the received original data including wind speed are assembled into correlation matrices in order to uncover inherent associations over varied time spans. Secondly a novel Multiscale Wind-speed Feature-Enhanced Convolutional Network (MW-FECN) is designed for efficient and selective multiscale feature extraction, which can capture comprehensive characteristics. Thirdly, a Random Forest Feature Selection (RF-FS) is employed to pinpoint crucial characteristics for enhanced prediction of wind speed with higher efficiency than the related works. Finally, the proposed hybrid model utilized a Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) network to achieve the accurate prediction of wind speed. Experimental data are collected in Weihai sea area, and a case study consist of five benchmarks and three ablation models is conducted to assess the proposed hybrid model. Compared with the conventional methods, experiment results illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid model and demonstrate effective balancing prediction accuracy and computational time. The proposed hybrid model achieves up to a 28.45% MAE and 27.27% RMSE improvement over existing hybrid models.

A short-term wind speed prediction method based on the IDBO-BPNN

Wind energy is known for its uncertainty and volatility, necessitating accurate wind speed prediction for stable wind farm operations. To enhance wind speed prediction accuracy, this study proposes a BP neural network (BPNN) short-term wind speed prediction model based on the Improved Dung Beetle Optimization (IDBO) algorithm. Addressing the issue of local optimization and reduced accuracy in the BPNN optimized by the Dung Beetle Optimization (DBO) algorithm, the circle chaotic mapping is utilized for population initialization to achieve a more uniform initial distribution. The improved sine-cosine algorithm, triangle wandering strategy, and adaptive weight coefficient are then employed to optimize dung beetle positions, balancing global exploration and local development capabilities and improving the algorithm’s search performance. Finally, the improved DBO algorithm optimizes the weights and thresholds of the BPNN, and the IDBO-BPNN prediction model was constructed. Simulation experiments were conducted based on wind speed data from a wind farm in Ohio, USA. The IDBO-BPNN model was compared with other prediction models, and error evaluation indexes were introduced to evaluate the experimental results. The findings demonstrate that the suggested model yields the most accurate predictions and achieves the optimal error evaluation indexes. MAE, MSE, RMSE, NSE and R2 of dataset 1 are 0.42247, 0.28775, 0.53642, 88.8785%, 89.161%, those of dataset 2 are 0.28283, 0.14952, 0.38668, 85.7383%, 86.577%, and those of dataset 3 are 0.45406, 0.39268, 0.62664, 84.3859%, 84.931%. In particular, compared with BPNN model, the five evaluation indexes of the IDBO-BPNN model promoted by 41.53%, 57.38%, 34.71%, 24.91%, and 11.44%, respectively in dataset 3. Therefore, that the proposed IDBO-BPNN model exhibits higher accuracy in short-term wind speed prediction, indicating its feasibility and superiority in the realm of wind energy.

Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction Study Based on Variational Mode Decompositions–Sparrow Search Algorithm–Gated Recurrent Units

Improving the accuracy of short-term wind speed predictions is crucial for mitigating the impact on power systems when integrating wind power into an electricity grid. This study developed a hybrid short-term wind speed prediction method, termed VMD–SSA–GRU, by combining variational mode decomposition (VMD) with gated recurrent units (GRUs) and optimizing it using a sparrow search algorithm (SSA). Initially, VMD was used to decompose the wind speed time series into subtime series. After reconstructing these subtime series, a GRU model was employed to establish separate prediction models for each series. Furthermore, an enhanced SSA was proposed to optimize the hyperparameters of the GRU model, which improved the prediction accuracy. Ultimately, the sub-series predictions were aggregated to produce the final wind speed prediction values. The predictive accuracy of this model was validated using the wind speed data measured at a meteorological station near a bridge site. The performance of the VMD–SSA–GRU model was compared with several other hybrid models, including those using wavelet transform, long short-term memory, and other neural networks. Comparably, the RMSE value of the VMD-SSA-GRU model was lower by 25.3%, 60.2%, and 61.7% in comparison to the VMD–SSA–LSTM, VMD–GRU, and VMD–LSTM models, respectively. The experimental results demonstrated that the proposed method achieved higher prediction accuracy than traditional methods.

Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction via Sample Entropy: A Hybridisation Approach against Gradient Disappearance and Explosion

High-variant wind speeds cause aberrations in wind power systems and compromise the effective operation of wind farms. A single model cannot capture the inherent wind speed randomness and complexity. In the proposed hybrid strategy, wavelet transform (WT) is used for data decomposition, sample entropy (SampEn) for subseries complexity evaluation, neural network autoregression (NNAR) for deterministic subseries prediction, long short-term memory network (LSTM) for complex subseries prediction, and gradient boosting machine (GBM) for prediction reconciliation. The proposed WT-NNAR-LSTM-GBM approach predicts minutely averaged wind speed data collected at Southern African Universities Radiometric Network (SAURAN) stations: Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), Richtersveld (RVD), Venda, and the Namibian University of Science and Technology (NUST). For comparison purposes, in WT-NNAR-LSTM-GBM, LSTM and NNAR are respectively replaced with a k-nearest neighbour (KNN) to form the corresponding hybrids: WT-NNAR-KNN-GBM and WT-KNN-LSTM-GBM. We assessed WT-NNAR-LSTM-GBM’s efficacy against NNAR, LSTM, WT-NNAR-KNN-GBM, and WT-KNN-LSTM-GBM as well as the naïve model. The comparative study found that the WT-NNAR-LSTM-GBM model was the most accurate, sharpest, and robust based on mean absolute error, median absolute deviation, and residual analysis. The study results suggest using short-term forecasts to optimise wind power production, enhance grid operations in real-time, and open the door to further algorithmic enhancements.

Short-term wind speed prediction based on time series trends and periodic characteristics

Short-term wind speed prediction based on time series trends and periodic characteristics

WindFormer: Learning Generic Representations for Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction

WindFormer: Learning Generic Representations for Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction

Multivariate short-term wind speed prediction based on PSO-VMD-SE-ICEEMDAN two-stage decomposition and Att-S2S

To counter the challenges posed by the unpredictability of wind velocities on wind energy production, a wind speed prediction model combining chaotic mapping-based particle swarm optimization with variational modal decomposition (CPSO-VMD), sample entropy (SE), improved completely integrated empirical modal decomposition with adaptive noise (ICEEMDAN) two-layer decomposition, and attention mechanism-based sequence to sequence (Att-S2S) method is proposed. Firstly, the Lasso method is employed to filter the features that significantly contribute to the wind speed data, fully considering hidden relevant information and eliminating redundant data to improve the prediction accuracy; Secondly, CPSO optimized by introducing chaotic mapping determines the parameter pairs for VMD. This facilitates an adaptive VMD breakdown of the wind speed sequence, aiding in noise removal and selection of the intrinsic mode function (IMF) with the highest sample entropy for further decomposition using ICEEMDAN. In light of this, a sequence-to-sequence method based on the attention mechanism is suggested, which may highlight the influence features' effects on IMF; Finally, the proposed model is implemented at both the Paso Robles wind farm and the Oasis wind farm for practical assessment and benchmarked against other models. Overall, the proposed model outperforms the other models in these trials.

Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction for Bridge Site Area Based on Wavelet Denoising OOA-Transformer

Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction for Bridge Site Area Based on Wavelet Denoising OOA-Transformer

Wind power prediction based on NGO-LSTM

Abstract At present, wind energy is mainly utilized through wind power grid connections. However, because of the uncertainty of wind energy, the grid connection will inevitably have an impact on the system. In order to adjust the grid dispatching plan in real time and improve the grid’s capacity to absorb wind power, a short-term wind speed prediction method based on NGO-LSTM was proposed. Taking the measured data of wind farms as an example, the prediction accuracy of the proposed method is compared with that of existing algorithms. Experimental results show that the R2 of the NGO-LSTM coupling model is closest to 1, and the RMSE, MAE, and MAPE are all smaller than the other two models, verifying the effectiveness and advanced nature of the proposed method.

Short-term wind speed prediction of wind farm based on TSO-VMD-BiLSTM

Aiming at the random and intermittent characteristics of wind speed, a short-term wind speed prediction (SWSP) method based on TSO-VMD-BiLSTM is proposed in this article. Firstly, open-source historical data from a certain region in 2022, including wind speed, direction, pressure, and temperature is analyzed. The data is processed through variational mode decomposition (VMD) to fully extract feature data from historical wind speed records. Secondly, taking historical wind speed, direction, pressure, and temperature as inputs and wind speed as output, a SWSP model based on long short-term memory (LSTM) network is constructed. Thirdly, the tuna swarm optimization (TSO) algorithm is utilized for parameters optimization, and a bi-directional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) network is incorporated to enhance prediction accuracy for micrometeorological parameters. The proposed TSO-VMD-BiLSTM model is validated through comparison with other models, demonstrating its higher accuracy with the maximum absolute error of only 2.52 m/s, the maximum root mean square error of 0.81, the maximum mean absolute error of only 0.54, and the maximum mean absolute percentage error of 6.89%.

A wind speed forecasting model using nonlinear auto-regressive model optimized by the hybrid chaos-cloud salp swarm algorithm

Wind energy forecasting is significantly affected by the strong volatility, intermittency and variability of the wind speed sequence itself. Therefore, to improve forecast accuracy and stability, based on nonlinear auto-regressive model with exogenous inputs (NARX) and the hybrid chaos-cloud salp swarm algorithm (CC-SSA), a short-term wind speed prediction method is proposed. Firstly, to reduce the complexity of the original wind speed data and generate subcomponents with different patterns and low complexity, a mixed modal decomposition method is carried out by combining variational modal decomposition (VMD) based on Pearson correlation coefficient and generalized S-transform (GST) based on adaptive sample entropy. Therefore, the complementary advantages of different mode decompositions are obtained by combining the two different subcomponents into a mixed component. Secondly, by using cloud model and chaotic map, the improved CC-SSA algorithm is proposed to improve the convergence performance of salp swarm algorithm (SSA). Finally, by using CC-SSA algorithm to optimize the weights of NARX, the CC-SSA-NARX forecasting model is established to predict wind speed. The experimental results show that for the 1-Step, 2-Step, and 3-Step datasets of the actual wind speed in the studied region, the MAE, MAPE, RMSE, and R2 of the CC-SSA-NARX model are 0.23, 6 %, 0.27, and 0.97 respectively. The proposed model present the highest prediction index among the other 7 comparative models, showing high accuracy and generalization ability in short-term wind speed prediction, it can provide a certain reference for enhancing the stability of wind power generation and promoting the sustainable development of the wind power industry to some extent.

Analysis of short-term wind speed variation, trends and prediction: A case study of Tamil Nadu, India

AbstractPurposeThe purpose of this research article is to analyze the short-term wind speed and develop a framework model to overcome the challenges in the wind power industry.Design/Methodology/ApproachReal data with a case study of wind speed is presented to illustrate the advantages of this new wind speed analytical framework. Hourly measurements of wind speed are observed, and the experiments are conducted using tools such as ANOVA, control charts, trend analysis, and predictive models. The August month data for over 13 years from modern era retrospective-analysis for research and applications (MERRA) National aeronautics and space administration (NASA) for Coimbatore and Erode locations in Tamil Nadu, India, have been used. The results were considered for the study to understand the wind speed data and the implementation of new wind power projects in India.FindingsThe essence of the proposed wind speed analytical framework is its flexible approach, which enables the effective integration of wind firms’ individual requirements by developing tailor-made analytical evaluations.Originality/ValueThis article derives the wind speed analytical framework with the application of statistical tools and machine learning algorithms.

A new two-stage decomposition and integrated hybrid model for short-term wind speed prediction

Accurate wind speed prediction is of essential importance for the stability and safe operation of power systems. Given the complexity of wind speed sequence, this paper proposed a new two-stage decomposition and integrated hybrid model to improve the accuracy of wind speed prediction. A two-stage decomposition method combining robust local mean decomposition (RLMD), sample entropy (SE) and variational modal decomposition (VMD) was used to decompose the wind speed signal in the data preprocessing stage. Firstly, the wind speed signal was decomposed into various components by RLMD, and the complexity of each component was calculated using the SE to classify them into random, detail component and trend component. Then, a secondary decomposition of the random component with the highest SE was performed using the VMD. In the prediction stage, two different prediction models were used for prediction depending on the smoothness of each component. Stochastic configuration networks (SCN) was used to predict the detail and trend components with relatively smoothness. Echo state network (ESN) was used to predict the components of the secondary decomposition. Finally, the actual wind speed data were compared by different prediction models, which illustrated that the prediction method proposed in this paper had good prediction accuracy and generalizability.

Enhancing short-term wind speed prediction based on an outlier-robust ensemble deep random vector functional link network with AOA-optimized VMD

Wind speed prediction is a crucial aspect in the utilization of wind energy. In this paper, a wind speed prediction model based on an outlier-robust ensemble deep random vector functional link network (ORedRVFL) and arithmetic optimization algorithm-optimized variational mode decomposition (AOA-VMD) is designed. First, the penalty factor and the number of mode decompositions of VMD are optimized using the AOA algorithm and the original data are decomposed using the optimized VMD. Then the decomposed data is predicted using the ensemble deep random vector functional link network (edRVFL) model. The edRVFL uses rich intermediate features for the final decision, which can make the final result closer to the real data. In order to strengthen the anti-interference ability to the outliers, this paper robustly improves the edRVFL model, and the improved model is called ORedRVFL. ORedRVFL reduces the impact of outliers by introducing regularization and norm to balance the relationship between training error and weights. The experiments have proved that the model proposed in this paper outperforms other models in terms of anti-interference ability and prediction accuracy.

Twin proximal support vector regression with heteroscedastic Gaussian noise

Twin proximal support vector regression, a novel approach, merges twin support vector regression (TSVR) with proximal support vector regression (PSVR) for regression analysis. Classical PSVR and TSVR assume that the data noise follows a homoscedastic Gaussian distribution with zero mean. However, in the real world, such as short-term wind speed prediction and wind farm power generation prediction, noise tends to follow a heteroscedastic Gaussian distribution with zero mean. Therefore, based on the aforementioned model framework and added the heteroscedastic noise feature, we develop a novel regression model named the twin proximal support vector regression model with heteroscedastic Gaussian noise (TPSVR-HGN). The Augment Lagrange multiplier approach is used to solve the proposed TPSVR-HGN model. On the artificial dataset and the real world dataset, compared with recent advanced models, the prediction accuracy of the TPSVR-HGN model has been improved by about 7% and 11% respectively. As the results of this experiment indicate, our method is effective and feasible.

Short-Term Probabilistic Wind Speed Predictions Integrating Multivariate Linear Regression and Generative Adversarial Network Methods

The precise forecasting of wind speeds is critical to lessen the harmful impacts of wind fluctuations on power networks and aid in merging wind energy into the grid system. However, prior research has predominantly focused on point forecasts, often overlooking the uncertainties inherent in the prediction accuracy. For this research, we suggest a new approach for forecasting wind speed intervals (PI). Specifically, the actual wind speed series are initially procured, and the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition coupled with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) method decomposes the actual wind speed series into constituent numerous mode functions. Furthermore, a generative adversarial network (GAN) is utilized to achieve the wind speed PI in conjunction with the multivariate linear regression method. To confirm the effectiveness of the suggested model, four datasets are selected. The validation results suggest that this suggested model attains a superior PI accuracy compared with those of numerous benchmark techniques. In the context of PI of dataset 4, the PINAW values show improvements of 68.06% and 32.35% over the CEEMDAN-CNN and VMD-GRU values in single-step forecasting, respectively. In conclusion, the proposed model excels over the counterpart models by exhibiting diminished a PINAW and CWC, while maintaining a similar PICP.

A short-term wind speed prediction method utilizing rolling decomposition and time-series extension to avoid information leakage

ABSTRACT The accuracy of wind speed prediction is crucial for the efficient operation and scheduling of power grids. In recent years, many wind speed prediction methods have been proposed, but the results have always been unsatisfactory, and the model accuracy in experimental testing has always been overestimated. This study focuses on the problem of information leakage caused by the decomposition of the test and general training sets in traditional wind speed prediction methods. Using the original model without decomposition as the standard and the mean average (P MAE ) and mean squared (P MSE ) errors as evaluation metrics, the overestimation degree of information leakage on the model accuracy was quantified. The results show that when the test set is decomposed together, the accuracy of the model is significantly overestimated. Specifically, the overestimation of P MAE ranges from 40% to 55%, and that of P MSE is from 65% to 85%. In addition, a singular spectrum analysis (SSA) – rolling decomposition (RD) – convolutional neural network (CNN) – bidirectional gated recurrent unit (BiGRU) – attention mechanism (AM) model based on the RD method was proposed. First, SSA was used to denoise the wind speed sequence, and then RD was performed on the original sequence to provide input vectors for the neural network model. Then, the CNN – BiGRU – AM hybrid neural network module predicted the wind speed sequence. Finally, to suppress the impact of boundary effects on the model accuracy, a time-series extension strategy based on neural networks was incorporated into the model. An example analysis indicates that the SSA – RD – CNN – BiGRU – AM model can avoid information leakage compared with other traditional models.

Interpretable wind speed forecasting with meteorological feature exploring and two-stage decomposition

Wind speed plays a pivotal role in ensuring the stability of power grid operations. However, the inherent high volatility and non-stationarity of wind patterns pose significant challenges to achieving accurate predictions. To tackle this issue and enhance the interpretability of existing wind speed prediction models, this study proposes an innovative short-term wind speed prediction model that combines two-stage decomposition, meteorological data feature engineering, adaptive differential evolution with optional external archive (JADE) algorithm, and temporal fusion transformers (TFT). To begin, the wind speed data is subjected to decomposition using improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (IEEMD), yielding multiple eigenmode functions. Subsequently, the nonlinear decomposition subsequence undergoes further decomposition into multiple submodes via empirical wavelet transform (EWT), followed by the careful screening of nonlinear quadratic decomposition submodes. Additionally, meteorological features are ingeniously reconstructed into combined and statistical meteorological features, enhancing the effectiveness of input features. Next, the hyperparameters of the TFT are meticulously optimized using the powerful JADE algorithm. Empirical results unequivocally demonstrate that the IEEMD-EWT-JADE-TFT model achieves remarkably high prediction accuracy. Meanwhile, this interpretative experimental process and its results chart a novel path for decision-makers seeking reliable wind speed forecasting processes and outcomes.