Short-term Outlook Research Articles

Rapid morphosedimentary development of a shallow subtropical embayment in response to extreme episodic flooding

Variability in supply of terrestrial sediments to the coastal zone impacts sediment transport processes and ecological dependencies. This study investigated surface sediment distribution and transportation within a 2020 km2 shallow embayment following a period of flood induced sediment supply. Extensive field sampling of 221 common sites between 2015 and the 2019 follow-up survey presented, identified significant reduction in fine sediment fractions, evident through a 367 km2 decrease in surface mud coverage. Wind-wave sediment transport processes controlled the spatial distribution of fine sediments, exporting 23 million tonnes of mud from the shallow sedimentation zones. In a broader context, sensitive benthic habitats such as seagrass meadows exhibited signs habitat recolonisation coinciding with areas of reduced mud content. Despite these promising short-term outlooks, the developed fine sediment budget suggests ongoing terrestrial sedimentation will exhaust key sediment sinks within Moreton Bay, effectively reducing the system's ability to buffer future sedimentation events.

Capturing Swiss economic confidence

Survey data can offer timely information on the current state of the economy and its short-term outlook. In this paper, we propose a “Swiss Economic Confidence Index” (SEC). This is a monthly indicator based on aggregating a selection of individual survey indicators, which we show to have favorable leading properties. Applying simple criteria, we select those surveys from a set of currently more than 250 sentiment indicators. We show that the SEC index provides useful signals on GDP growth in a number of real-time out-of-sample forecasting exercises.

Using an Additive Component Model to forecast the number of mergers and acquisitions in China

Research is devoted to the topic of modeling and forecasting seasonal fluctuations in MA transactions in China to assess the short-term outlook for the movement of this sector, as well as for future studies of MA market conditions in the PRC. As a forecasting method the authors have chosen a model with an additive component that considers quarterly data on the number of MA deals in the Celestial Empire for the past 15 quarters. The order of building a model with additive component is calculation of seasonal component values, deseasonalization of data, trend calculation and evaluation of forecast accuracy. Additive model allows smoothing seasonality by separating seasonal component from time series and separating it from trend and residual component. This action is performed by subtracting the seasonal component from the original time series. Thus, seasonality is removed from the time series, and only trend and residual component remain. After extraction of the seasonal component, it can be analyzed separately and used to predict future values of the time series. It is also possible to use smoothing methods, such as moving average or exponential smoothing, to smooth the seasonality and get a smoother trend. The authors also built trend models, namely linear, power, polynomial, exponential and logarithmic trend models and chose the polynomial model that provides the highest coefficient of determination. The resulting model has made it possible to forecast the number of transactions by quarter until the end of 2023, in the aftermath of which the possible reasons for the decline in the number of mergers and acquisitions in China are described.

Eurozone: Resilient activity improves our short‐term outlook

Economic OutlookVolume 47, Issue 2 p. 48-50 Feature article Eurozone: Resilient activity improves our short-term outlook Nicola Nobile, Corresponding Author Nicola Nobile [email protected] Search for more papers by this author Nicola Nobile, Corresponding Author Nicola Nobile [email protected] Search for more papers by this author First published: 20 April 2023 https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0319.12690Read the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL No abstract is available for this article. Volume47, Issue2April 2023Pages 48-50 RelatedInformation

The APE lecture: Life in a liminal space; Or, the journey shapes the destination

This paper is based on a presentation at the APE 2022 Conference and two blog posts published first on The Scholarly Kitchen. It explains how the scholarly community is currently in a liminal space; a place of transition to the end goal of open access (OA), open science, and open research. It argues that the publishing landscape is marked by two waves of consolidation: in the journal’s publisher space, and in the scholarly communication infrastructure. With respect to the first wave, Uncertainty, Transformative Agreements, and the required Technology and Reporting Burdens of Plan S led to an increased emphasis on publishing in quantity, smaller society publishers being dissolved, and bigger publishers shifting towards being workflow providers. The second wave of consolidation is happening around the technology and infrastructure of scholarly communication. This has seen a further shift for many companies away from being a publisher and toward being a workflow provider. The short-term outlook is that we are going to be in this liminal space for a while. Longer term we see two concurrent trends: a drive for low-cost, high-volume bulk publishing, and a shift for publishers to become paid service providers for most everything else. This is the path we are on. The question for the community is whether this is an acceptable long-term outcome to our end goal, or are there other routes we should be taking to drive a differently shaped future?

The British Army, Upper Silesia, and European Diplomacy, 1920–22

ABSTRACT At the end of the First World War, Britain was at the limit of its capabilities, both militarily and diplomatically. Despite large reductions in the size of its armed forces, it had an increasing number of responsibilities as a victorious power. One of these responsibilities was to ensure the success of a plebiscite in Upper Silesia. It had little desire to do this but was compelled to provide support in order to counter French influence in the region, having to do so with minimal expertise and manpower. This article explores the decision-making which occurred in relation to the British role in Upper Silesia, placing it within the wider context of British strategic and diplomatic policy in the years immediately after the First World War, while also assessing the use (or not) of British civilian and military experts on the ground. Belatedly taking a role in the region certainly helped to aid a situation which was spiralling out of control, but highlights how a short-term outlook on foreign policy and decision-making hindered British efforts to exert influence in the region and further afield.

How to Define (Your) Legacy?

This paper explores and questions the diverse interpretations and understandings of the concept of “legacy” across various organizations and individuals. A recurrent theme encountered is the perception of legacy as the ultimate goal. Many organizations, associations, and individuals aspire to create a lasting impact and indelible influence in their respective domains, a feat equated with legacy. As an instrumental tool for fostering global change and propelling success into the future, association events are asserted to have immense strategic potential. However, they do not provide a legacy in their own right – ultimately and most importantly, the legacy must be derived from the association itself. However, the paper recognizes that events can support association legacy; it highlights that realizing an event’s full potential does not occur in isolation. There is a need for strategic facilitation in various ways across many stakeholders. Whether this involves the creation of the perfect physical environment for individuals to gather, providing guidance, the allotment of necessary resources, or even financial support, crucial groundwork must be laid to ensure the success of these events. Any legacy programme’s establishment and ultimate success should be noticed and appreciated. Indeed, the paper advocates for initiating these programmes from the top level of an organization, as strategic direction is fundamental to their success. Furthermore, given the long-term nature of legacy, measurements should consider a broader perspective and not strictly adhere to typical short-term outlooks. This challenge is how to accurately measure these long-term strategic goals, especially when these goals need to be time-based, a major problem identified in the paper. Thus, careful consideration must be given to the metrics and indicators used.

SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant and the future of the pandemic

Global infections with the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 have now superseded all other similar variant infections we have witnessed thus far. The current global wave mainly caused by a descendant of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant, called BA.2, is the most prevalent in UK, and has a natural history somewhat different from its predecessors. It also appears, that the so-called COVID-19 variant infections, in varying guises, are the harbingers of the post-COVID-19, ‘new normal’ world of the future, we have to live in. Here, we look at key features of SARS-CoV-2 variants, particularly BA.1 and BA.2, and the reasons for their phenomenal spread, vaccine efficacy against them, as well as the unfolding short-term outlook for the pandemic. CPD/Clinical Relevance: To describe the reasons for the high global prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant, particularly its BA.2 subvariant, and discuss the attendant implications for the dental profession.

Prediction of clinical outcome in CLL based on recurrent gene mutations, CLL-IPI variables, and (para)clinical data

AbstractA highly variable clinical course, immune dysfunction, and a complex genetic blueprint pose challenges for treatment decisions and the management of risk of infection in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). In recent years, the use of machine learning (ML) technologies has made it possible to attempt to untangle such heterogeneous disease entities. In this study, using 3 classes of variables (international prognostic index for CLL [CLL-IPI] variables, baseline [para]clinical data, and data on recurrent gene mutations), we built ML predictive models to identify the individual risk of 4 clinical outcomes: death, treatment, infection, and the combined outcome of treatment or infection. Using the predictive models, we assessed to what extent the different classes of variables are predictive of the 4 different outcomes, within both a short-term 2-year outlook and a long-term 5-year outlook after CLL diagnosis. By adding the baseline (para)clinical data to CLL-IPI variables, predictive performance was improved, whereas no further improvement was observed when including the data on recurrent genetic mutations. We discovered 2 main clusters of variables predictive of treatment and infection. Further emphasizing the high mortality resulting from infection in CLL, we found a close similarity between variables predictive of infection in the short-term outlook and those predictive of death in the long-term outlook. We conclude that at the time of CLL diagnosis, routine (para)clinical data are more predictive of patient outcome than recurrent mutations. Future studies on modeling genetics and clinical outcome should always consider the inclusion of several (para)clinical data to improve performance.

Eurozone

After solid 2.2% q/q expansion in Q2, we expect the economy to continue growing at a strong pace in Q3 at just below 2% q/q. After the multi‐year highs reached in previous months, some monthly indicators such as the ESI and the PMIs have started to normalise. But so far this should not be seen as a worrying sign for the shortterm outlook, as alternative indicators continue to point to another solid quarter for Q3.

ПРОБЛЕМЫ СОЗДАНИЯ ЭНЕРГОСБЕРЕГАЮЩЕГО ТЯГОВОГО ПРИВОДА

The problems of traction properties increase in locomotives are considered. The necessity in devices for instantaneous control of a friction coefficient of wheels and rails based on the impact of electric current or a magnetic field upon a wheel/rail contact area. There are defined basic fields of researches essential for the actual realization of such devices. It is defined that devices based on electric current impact require the introduction of considerable changes in the units of a crew part for wheel pair insulation and searches of problem solution in the separation of traction current and control one and the prevention of control current impact upon alarm systems. It is offered to consider magnetic amplifiers of adhesion as a solution of a short-term outlook which can be introduced in an existing locomotive fleet and those using current impact as a solution of newly-developed promising machines. There is offered a design of an individual traction drive simplifying a problem in the arrangement of devices for instantaneous control of a friction coefficient.

Guinea

Guinea is being severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. A local outbreak is spreading rapidly, adding pressure to the fragile social context and putting a strain on the health system. Containment measures have started to negatively impact domestic economic activity. Furthermore, the sharp slowdown in China (Guinea’s main export market) has hindered mining exports and tax revenues, putting pressure on Guinea’s external and fiscal position. Since the completion of the fourth ECF review, worsening global conditions and the local outbreak have deteriorated Guinea’s short-term outlook. Real growth is expected to sharply decelerate to 1.4 percent in 2020.

E&P Notes (July 2020)

E&P Notes (July 2020)

Almanya ve Türkiye Ekonomik Beklentilerinin Karşılaştırılması: ZEW ve Ekonomik Güven Endeksi Duyarlılık Göstergelerinin Analizi

Bir ekonominin kısa dönemdeki görünümünü yansıtan “ekonomik duyarlılık” endeksleri bazı gelişmiş ülkelerde uzun yıllardan beri kullanılmaktadır. Almanya’da Avrupa Ekonomik Araştırmalar Merkezi (Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung- ZEW) tarafından oluşturulan ZEW endeksi bu endekslerden biridir ve Alman ekonomisinin kısa dönem beklentileri hakkında fikir verici bir gösterge olarak kullanılmaktadır. Türkiye’de ise kısa dönem beklentileri ölçmek amacıyla Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TÜİK) aracılığıyla uygulanan Ekonomik Güven Endeksi (EGE) benzer bir araçtır. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’nin en önemli dış ticaret ortağı olan Almanya’daki ekonomik beklentilerin Türkiye’deki ekonomik beklentileri etkileyip etkilemediği araştırılmaktadır. Bu amaçla 2007:01-2019:05 dönemi aylık ZEW ve EGE endeks verilerine Hacker ve Hatemi-J’nin (2006) geliştirdiği simetrik(klasik) nedensellik testi ve Hatemi-J (2012) asimetrik(saklı) nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Sonuçlar Alman ekonomisi hakkındaki beklentilerin kötüleşmesi halinde Türk ekonomisi hakkındaki beklentilerin de kötüleştiğini, ancak Alman ekonomisi hakkındaki iyimser beklentilerin Türkiye ekonomisinde her zaman iyimser beklentilere yol açmadığına işaret etmektedir.

A new artificial intelligence GANNATS model predicts gasoline demand of Saudi Arabia

This paper develops a novel AI and data-driven predictive model to analyze and forecast energy markets, and tests it for gasoline demand of Saudi Arabia. The AI model is based on a genetic algorithm (GA), artificial neural network (ANN), and data mining (DM) approach for time-series (TS) analysis, referred to as GANNATS. The GANNATS predictive model was successfully designed, trained, validated, and tested using real historical market data. Results show that the model yields accurate predictions with robust key performance indicators. A double cross-validation of the model verified that Saudi Arabia's gasoline demand declined by 2.5% in 2017 from its 2016 level. The model forecasts that Saudi gasoline demand will maintain a mild growth over the short-term outlook. Variables impact and screening analysis was performed to identify the influencing factors driving the gasoline demand. The recent decline in Saudi gasoline demand is primarily attributed to the improvements in vehicle efficiency, lifting of fuel price subsidies, declining population growth, and changes in consumer behavior. This paper enriches existing knowledge of best practices for forecasting domestic and global gasoline demand. In addition, the methodology presented improves on traditional econometric models and enhances the predictability and accuracy of forecasts of gasoline demand.

Computerized Operator Training: Continued Importance, New Opportunities, and the Human Factor

Computerized training simulators are a powerful tool to decrease the accident rate and improve process control effectiveness. The paper discusses the architectures of present-day training systems, describes the key features of their components, analyzes the content and main phases of a training simulator project and the requirements to its stakeholders. The focus is made on the application of training systems to adjacent process automation problems. Case studies presenting Honeywell’s experience in Russia are outlined, a short-term outlook is included.

Burkina Faso

Burkina Faso is facing a security crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic shocks. The number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) has surged nine-fold since January 2019 and is likely to further increase. Access to food and basic services is increasingly difficult for both displaced and host communities. The security crisis is starting to weigh on economic activity and has put the budget under pressure, as security spending is narrowing fiscal space for spending in other priority areas (social, education, health and investment). The global COVID-19 outbreak is worsening the short-term outlook for Burkina Faso further, given the country’s limited preparedness and weak health system.

Sustainability Risk Management: An Exploratory Study

There have been significant environmental changes, including climate-related events that are affecting the businesses in India and the world. The impact of these events is estimated to cost the global economy by 20 percent of its GDP over the next few years with serious economic consequences for the business. In spite of such an alarming risk, very little is known on how corporates deal with sustainability in general and environmental sustainability in particular and their linkages to corporate risks in a strategy setting. This exploratory study attempts to understand the state of environmental sustainability risk disclosures of a select 200 companies listed in the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE). We use content analysis to study the disclosures made in the Annual Report, Business Responsibility Report, Sustainability Reports and other allied reports presented by the companies to understand the levels of disclosures. Further, we study the extent of disclosures by the companies to understand the present state of engagement with environment sustainability and climate change and their integration with the main stream risk management. Our findings suggest that almost all companies have some basic general disclosures on risks this can mainly be attributed to the mandatory nature of disclosures in the annual report. However, companies do not disclose more than 37% of the total risk categories identified by the research. Only financial risks are discussed in detail. Environment Sustainability risk disclosure is poor, and the quality of disclosure is also low. Disclosures on climate change risks were even more opaque. It appears that the changes in the weather patterns have either not emerged as a significant cause of concern to be disclosed in the risk section or they companies have generally not disclosed the same. We also find that environmental disclosures are not integrated in a more comprehensive in the risk reports. We also find that companies had not integrated sustainability risk into the risk management framework and strategy mainly due to lack of understanding of the direct business impacts (quantification), lack of regulations and stakeholder pressure. Moreover, firms have a short term outlook and are more focussed on quarterly results and profitability in the near term. Though reporting on environmental risks and climate change are weak, companies are taking initiatives on matters such as energy conservation, water, and waste management.

Interreligious Conflicts in Post-Authoritarian Indonesia: Assumptions, Causes, and Implications

While Indonesia is known as a land of religious tolerance, interreligious conflicts have been a central issue in the academe. This study attempts to rethink the discourse on this issue by criticizing and elucidating the long-accepted assumption that religion is one of the main sources of interreligious tensions in Indonesia. This study chose a critical qualitative review to extract data and information from previous studies and reports regarding this issue. The results of this study cover such main elements as causes of interreligious conflicts, assumptions on religious conflicts, implications of religious conflicts on the future of Indonesian multicultural society, and a short-term outlook of interreligious conflicts in the country. This article concludes that Indonesia provides many unique contexts and aspects in comprehensively understanding interreligious tensions.

Wpływ COVID-19 na nastawienie i credit ratingi krajów

Covid-19 Impact on Countires’ Outlooks and Credit Ratings The aim of the study is to examine the impact of the financial crisis caused by COVID-19 on chang­es in outlooks and credit ratings of major rating agencies. The research hypothesis was as follows: the financial crisis caused by COVID-19 negatively affected the change in outlooks and credit ratings of countries. The study used long-term and short-term credit ratings and outlooks collected from the Thomson Reuters / Refinitiv database regarding liabilities expressed in foreign currency and macroeconomic data from the International Monetary Fund databases, for 2010–2021. The analysis was carried out using ordered logit panel models. The presented results showed a weak significant im­pact of the COVID-19 pandemic on credit rating. The agency that changed its notes in connection with this situation is Standard & Poor’s (S&P). However, the attitude responded to the situation un­der investigation. During the crisis, country ratings have become less sensitive to growing debt, which may be dictated by widespread loosening of fiscal policy. The rate of GDP growth has a par­ticular impact during the COVID-19 period in the event of a change of outlook. Rising inflation is particularly dangerous in the age of pandemics. It may be related to monetary policy easing.