Bidirectional spillover effects between China and US short-term interest rate volatility driven by economic policy uncertainty: A BHK-L-MIDAS-Copula analysis

Session-based recommender systems face significant challenges in accurately predicting user preferences due to the limited availability of long-term historical interactions. While recent advances in deep learning and graph-based approaches have improved recommendation performance, the temporal aspects of user interactions remain underutilized. This paper identifies three critical temporal challenges in session-based recommendations: interest shifts indicated by long intervals between interactions, interaction noise from brief engagements, and system popularity effects during high-traffic periods. To address these challenges, we propose a novel Dual-channel Time-aware Graph Attention Network (DT-GAT) to incorporate temporal signal, i.e., time intervals between interactions and time differences between sessions, into session representations from both item and session perspectives. The item-wise learning channel employs a temporal graph attention network to capture interest shifts and filter interaction noise, while the session-wise learning channel utilizes a temporal graph attention network to handle inconsistent popularity trends. Additionally, we introduce a multi-temporal window processing mechanism to construct robust session representations that effectively capture short-term interests while filtering noise. Extensive experiments conducted on three real-world datasets demonstrate that DT-GAT consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baseline models. Our code is available at: https://github.com/downw/DT-GAT • We propose DT-GAT to integrate item- and session-level temporal signals. • Dual temporal GATs capture dependencies via temporal intra- and inter-session graphs. • Contrastive learning aligns dual channels to enhance session representations. • Experiments on three datasets validate the effectiveness of DT-GAT.

In this paper, we observe the special orthogonal matrix Lie group containing of all 2x2 real matrices, denoted by SO(2), which can be geometrically visualized as the one-dimensional torus S1 which is nothing but the unit circle. A Brownian motion on SO(2) can be constructed and represented by a stochastic differential equation defined over a dynamic state space. The research aims to derive a short-term interest rate model on SO(2) through Brownian motion analysis which is a geometric approach. We employ a qualitative methodology, including a literature review of Brownian motion, stochastic differential equations, and dynamical state-space techniques on SO(2). Firstly, we prove the isomorphism SO(2) is isomorphic to S1, secondly, we determine Brownian motion on SO(2) and its equivalent, and thirdly, we formulate the corresponding stochastic differential equation, and the last, determine the short-term interest rate equation on SO(2). In this study, it is confirmed Lim and Privault’s work that the interest rate equation on SO(2) is given by rt = beta + 2 gamma cos(Wt) with beta, gamma is constant and Wt is standard Brownian motion. To clarify the obtained results, this study also gave a quantitative approach that is Python simulation of interest rate calculation using the matrix Lie group interest rate and other equations. The interest rate equation uses the matrix Lie group SO(n) with n greater than or equal to three still open to further research that can be applied to long-term interest rates.

The aim of the article is to study the factors that influence the bank short-term and long-term interest rates. The relevance : in modern conditions the interest rate policy is considered not only as a way to ensure bank efficiency and financial stability, but also as a tool to stimulate economic activity. The purpose of the study is to identify the factors that determine the short-term and long-term interest rates and, on this basis, to determine economic and/or regulatory measures to improve the bank interest rate policy for the purposes of national economy. The scientific novelty includes the identification of the factors that determine the banking interest rate policy in the short-term and longterm aspects. The research methodology is based on statistical modeling using the vector autoregressive distributed lag model. The statistical database includes the Russian banking sector financial indicators and a significant range of macroeconomic variables. Results . The authors identified the factors of bank loans interest rates. The key parameters include macroeconomic variables: the money market interest rate and the structural liquidity deficit of the banking sector. The impact of macroeconomic parameters differs with respect to long-term and short-term rates, as nominal GDP is significant only for long-term interest rates. Loan portfolio quality indicators do not affect interest rates. Based on the study's findings, the authors proposed directions to develop the current banking regulation: to set regulatory alignment between the credit risk premium and the loan loss reserve requirement; to limit the corporate floating rates lending; to introduce an additional credit instrument of the Bank of Russia —a secured loan to systemically important banks for a one year.

Nominal interest rates have real effects. Residential mortgages and other real world debt contracts require a sequence of constant nominal payments. Combined with payment-to-income constraints, these nominal payments force borrowers to take on less debt when nominal interest rates rise, regardless of the behavior of the real interest rate. Survey data shows that conditional on the real rate, higher nominal mortgage interest rates reduce home buying sentiment. And increases in nominal mortgage rates reduce mortgage origination more in cities where payment to-income constraints are more likely to bind. We explore the macroeconomic implications of payment-to-income constraints in a new Keynesian model modified to include a credit good. The payment-to-income constraint amplifies the effect of current short-term nominal interest rates on output and inflation, making the model less forward-looking than the standard new Keynesian model.

The people are breaking the fetters of their imagination and envisioning ecologically kind futures. Sooner rather than later, central bankers will have to learn that they cannot hit two targets, financial stability and inflation employment, with a short-term interest rate.

ABSTRACT Future generations face a precarious political, economic, and environmental outlook that follows from decision making systems organized to reward short term gains while deferring their costs into the future. This article argues that the failure is primarily institutional rather than moral. Adults are accountable only to other adults, and there is no systematic mechanism of transgenerational accountability. This absence is guaranteed by a culture of generational segregation, within which children are confined to age stratified institutions while adults dominate the sites where economic and political norms are negotiated, producing a democratic deficit that conflicts with the principle that those affected by norms ought to participate in their formation. Youth encounter this exclusion as a kind of generational apartheid and often withdraw from democratic life, turn toward nihilism, or embrace reactionary politics. The exclusion of children is commonly justified through a definition of politics as rational deliberation over scarce resources, yet the most vital resources are materially abundant. Scarcity is instead produced through adult rent-seeking practices that restrict access and concentrate advantage, shaping the self-imposed problems addressed by political science and the assumptions of political philosophy. Across these literatures, accountability remains confined to contemporaneous adults, while appeals to future generations rely on moral commitments that are easily overridden by short-term interests. The article argues for an unadulterated democracy centered on a strong interpretation of the principle of affected interest, requiring institutions to treat children as political contemporaries to whom adults are accountable.

This short article discusses the economic background under which the Quantitative Easing (QE) policies have been initiated by the major central banks of the advance countries in the world. The QE was initiated by the major central banks because the conventional ‘inflation targeting policy through short term interest rates policies were found to be ineffective in fighting the recession of the years 2008-2009, as the short term interest rates had already reached a floor and the central banks could not reduce the rates further down. This might have been due to the ‘Keynesian Liquidity trap’. Then the central banks resorted to buying the long-term assets such as the bonds, the mortgage securities and selling or pumping the money to the public, financial institutions and the households. We have discussed the operation and working of these QE policies in the USA, the U.K, Europe, and Japan. We have also evaluated the effectiveness of the QE policies in those major countries and economies. Our assessment has been by and large very positive about the QE policies; however, there have been some distributional effects, which have reduced the intended effectiveness of the QE policies in those countries. Further, the conventional money supply, either the narrow money, M1, or the broad money supply, M3, are found to be empirically very important to judge the effectiveness of the monetary policy especially during the recessions of 2008-2009.

Purpose – This study investigates how monetary policy affects income and consumption inequality across household income groups in South Korea, focusing on the heterogeneous responses of wage and property income. Design/Methodology – We employ a Bayesian sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (B-SVAR) framework, complemented by a long-run restriction SVAR for robustness, to estimate the effects of short-term interest rate shocks from the U.S. and Korea. The model uses quintile-level data on wage income, property income, and consumption from 2003 to 2023. Impulse response functions based on Monte Carlo simulations trace the heterogeneous distributional impacts. Findings – U.S. monetary tightening is rapidly transmitted to Korean policy rates, underscoring Korea’s exposure to external monetary conditions. Domestic monetary policy shocks increase both income and consumption inequality in the short run, but with pronounced asymmetries. Wage income among low-income households reacts sharply yet temporarily, whereas property income among high-income households exhibits more persistent responses. Variance decompositions further indicate that inequality feeds back into policy dynamics, amplifying the vulnerability of lowincome households during downturns. Originality/value – This study provides new evidence of the unequal transmission of monetary policy across income groups in the context of a small open economy. Employing quintile-level data and the sign-restricted B-SVAR framework, this analysis highlights the asymmetric and persistent effects of rate shocks, especially through property income and consumption inequality, as an underexplored dimension of monetary policy research.

The dual-VET apprenticeship model is considered as an improved model of technical and vocational education and training (TVET) that enhances a higher possibility of ensuring a rewarding job. Such model provides dual benefits. On the one hand, it helps trainees achieve high employability and, on the other hand, the employers get skilled and loyal workforce to their industries. Despite sound theoretical base of this modality, the practice shows low retention rate in Nepal and many trainees drop out from the program in the middle. This study seeks to understand the dynamics of dropout phenomenon via apprentices’ dropout experiences. It basically adopts a qualitative approach. However, it first assesses the prevalence and distribution of such dropout event of apprentices quantitatively to problematize the issue. Then, in-depth interviews with five dropouts and two FGDs with current apprentices draw qualitative information to enrich the study. This study portrays three major findings: a) The dropout phenomenon starts right from the selection process of apprentices, b) The apprentices consider this program as a program to pursue their short-term interest, and c) There is a mismatch between apprentices’ expectation and field realities. In sum, the occurrence of dropout of apprentices was the result of less informed choice, lack of counseling during the program, and institutional arrangements of TVET system where the ground realities were interwoven with socio-cultural and economic background of apprentices. The dropout phenomenon is explained under the social cognitive career theory. One of the major contributions of this study will be identifying policy-practice gaps in implementing the apprenticeship model of TVET. Moreover, the findings will be helpful to understand and improve the working strategies in undergoing TVET programs and projects in the local context of Nepal.

Carbon tax policy reflects a strategic mechanism to align fiscal reform with climate goals. While previous research has extensively examined the political and economic implications of carbon pricing, limited attention has been paid to the strategic design of carbon tax policies towards balancing internal fiscal priorities with external environmental commitments, particularly in developing countries. This is particularly important in developing countries, where fiscal constraints and urgent development needs make the alignment with climate commitments extremely challenging. Therefore, this study addresses the research question: How do governments in developing countries navigate the strategic alignment between fiscal priorities and climate commitments in the design of carbon tax policy?. Using a qualitative case study approach, the research draws on in-depth interviews with 15 key informants involved in the design and implementation of the carbon tax policy in a developing country, Indonesia. Indonesia is a suitable case for this study because, despite having committed to reducing emissions through the Paris Agreement, implementation of carbon policy has experienced significant delays due to the slow policy design process. To address the research question, this study identifies a theoretical gap in the limited application of the Strategic Fit framework in fiscal–climate public policy in developing countries. Our findings show that fiscal alignment and climate commitments are hampered by short-term revenue interests, weak inter-ministerial coordination, and institutional capacity limitations, while international pressure and the push for fiscal reform are actually driving factors. Theoretically, this study extends Strategic Fit beyond corporate strategy to the public policy domain by incorporating fiscal-climate dynamics relevant to developing countries. Practically, it underscores the need for carbon tax designs that balance fiscal demands with climate commitments through stronger institutional coordination and credible instruments.

This paper examines the evolution of the Portuguese residential real estate market during the first twenty-five years of the 21st century, focusing on the short-run determinants of housing transaction values. Using quarterly data from 2000 to 2025, the study applies an econometric time-series framework that explicitly addresses non-stationarity. The model evaluates the dynamic effects of macroeconomic performance, housing credit conditions, indicators of household financial stress, interest rates, confidence measures and demographic factors. Results show that housing market dynamics in Portugal are predominantly driven by GDP growth, with effects persisting across several quarters. Credit-related variables, particularly housing lending conditions and indicators of household financial fragility, exert significant influence. In contrast, short-term interest rates, confidence indicators and immigration flows do not exhibit statistically significant independent short-run effects. The findings highlight the relevance of macroeconomic and financial channels in shaping housing market fluctuations, supporting the need for coordinated housing and macroprudential policies to mitigate cyclical risks. The study provides a long-term empirical assessment of housing market dynamics in a Southern European economy that experienced financial crises, sovereign debt adjustment and post-pandemic recovery, integrating macroeconomic and financial determinants within a unified short-run analytical framework.

ABSTRACT Current volatility and unpredictability of our global environment and recent advances in info-communication technologies demand the work of reflective professionals more than ever: professionals who are truly innovative and resourceful in responding to the complexities of the emerging environmental and social challenges. Professionalism reduced to non-reflected use of technologies, and its possible consequence, control work instead of empowerment in social work maintain the existing power relations and serve the short-term interests of the ruling regimes only – today’s lucky few, but in the long run, sharers in humankind’s predictable losses. This article describes a class design with a focus on a method, Reflective Portrait, which facilitates the development of students’ systemic, person-in-environment orientation and enables them to reflect on the synergies between the societal, cultural, relational, and individual factors influencing social problem definition and resolution. Students’ knowledge, skills, attitudes, and values, as the core constituents of their professional identity, are the key targets of the learning process.

This study develops and evaluates a hybrid ARIMAGARCH model with Student-t innovations to simulate the U.S. short-term interest rate path and price the interest rate caplet. As a key monetary policy tool and a fundamental benchmark in financial markets, the behaviour of short-term interest rates is characterised by volatility clustering and non-Gaussian innovations, features that constant-volatility lognormal models inadequately capture. Utilising the U.S. 3-Month Treasury Bill rate as a proxy for the short rate, this study estimates the model parameters and simulates 10,000 Monte Carlo paths over a three-month horizon. A caplet is then valued under a short-rate framework with payoffNmax(rT-K,0), and pathwise discounting, and the resulting price is compared with a Black76 benchmark. The empirical results indicate strong volatility persistence and heavy-tailed innovations, supporting the need for time-varying volatility and non-Gaussian errors. In pricing, the ARIMAGARCHt Monte Carlo approach yields a significantly higher caplet value than the Black76 benchmark, underscoring the sensitivity of derivative values to volatility and distributional assumptions. Overall, the proposed framework provides a more realistic representation of short-rate risk and a more defensible basis for caplet valuation, with practical value for hedging and stress testing in interest-rate markets.

In light of accelerating environmental degradation, the transition to a green economy is an imperative for achieving sustainable development. This study provides a critical analysis of the international legal and institutional framework governing this transition, revealing a significant gap between normative developments and the institutional framework on one hand, and their practical implementation on the other. The transition faces legal obstacles, including reliance on non-binding voluntary commitments and conflicts between environmental obligations and global trade and investment rules. It also reveals a significant financing gap, as financial flows to developing countries continue to lag behind commitments, in addition to technical barriers related to the costs and transfer of technology. The study further uncovers challenges related to social and distributive justice, where the poorest bear the brunt of the impacts and costs, undermining the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. These obstacles are attributed to deep-seated structural issues, including the prioritization of short-term national interests over the collective good, the fragmented nature of international commitments, the conflict between economic and environmental systems, and a chronic deficit in financing and equity. The study concludes that genuine progress requires a radical restructuring of the international socio-economic contract, and a shift in global governance from establishing ambitious principles to ensuring their binding, fair, and comprehensive implementation. This is essential to transform the vision of a green economy into a practical reality that achieves sustainability and justice for all.

The article examines the process of degradation of the managerial and political elites of the United States of America and the European Union in the context of the systemic transformation of the global political and economic architecture. The author analyzes the causes of the weakening quality of strategic and administrative governance in the West, including the loss of personnel continuity, the erosion of professional standards, and the dominance of short-term electoral interests over longterm planning. Special attention is given to the impact of internal socio-political contradictions, the ideologization of foreign policy, and the crisis of value legitimacy on the ability of Western elites to maintain a stable international dialogue. The article substantiates the thesis that the degradation of Western elites is not a partial but a systemic phenomenon, driven by the exhaustion of the liberal globalist model and the institutional aging of Western democracies. It concludes that the restoration of a full-fl edged interstate dialogue is possible only through the formation of a new paradigm of international relations based on the principles of equality, cultural pluralism, and strategic realism.

Little is known about the feeding and mating habits of most Anthrenus Geoffroy species. In the current study, A . pimpinellae (Fabricius) were offered different flowers and were assessed for degree of interest shown to the different plant species. From the 41 species of plant offered, no interest was shown towards 18 plant species, short-term interest without mating was shown towards 10 plant species, and long-term high interest combined with mating was shown towards 13 plant species. In the wild, specimens could be found on the flowers of eight of these 13 attractive plant species: Aristolochia clematitis L., Crataegus monogyna Jacq., Erigeron annuus (L.) Pers., Euphorbia cyparissias L., Ligustrum vulgare L., Pyracantha coccinea M.Roem., Rosa canina L. and Taraxacum officinale Weber ex F.H. Wigg. Interest in the flowers of Sambucus nigra L. was limited but the beetles spent a lot of time feeding from the surface of the leaves covered with honeydew from the aphid Aphis sambuci Linnaeus, 1758. Males and females were promiscuous, mating preferentially during the morning and under sunny conditions. Mating occurred only on the flowers of preferred species. The implications of promiscuity on aedeagus evolution is discussed.

ABSTRACT: Money market volatility plays a critical role in influencing the dynamics of financial markets, particularly in emerging economies such as India. The retail sector, being highly dependent on consumer demand, credit availability, and interest rate movements, is extremely sensitive to fluctuations in the money market. This research paper examines the influence of money market volatility on the performance of retail sector stocks in India. The study focuses on key money market variables such as short-term interest rates, liquidity conditions, and monetary policy measures, and evaluates their impact on retail stock returns, investor sentiment, and risk perception. A descriptive and analytical research design has been adopted using both primary and secondary data. Primary data was collected through a structured questionnaire administered to retail investors, while secondary data was sourced from RBI publications, NSE and BSE reports, and reputed national and international journals. Statistical tools such as percentage analysis, correlation analysis, and regression analysis were employed for data interpretation. The findings reveal a significant relationship between money market volatility and retail sector stock performance, indicating that increased volatility adversely affects investor confidence and stock returns. The study concludes by offering practical suggestions for investors and policymakers to manage risks associated with money market fluctuations and enhance stability in the retail sector. Keywords: Money Market Volatility, Retail Sector Stocks, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Investor Sentiment, Liquidity

This article analyses the evolution of Russia–Iran relations from 2002 to 2023, arguing that strategic convergence has been driven primarily by shared perceptions of U.S. threat rather than short-term tactical interests. Drawing on Stephen Walt’s Balance of Threat theory and qualitative process tracing, it examines how U.S. military interventions, NATO enlargement, and coercive sanctions reshaped Iranian and Russian threat assessments. Three turning points—the 2003 Iraq War, the 2015 joint intervention in Syria, and the 2018 collapse of the JCPOA—accelerated alignment. The article shows that the 2022 war in Ukraine transformed this alignment into a strategically consequential partnership with direct implications for NATO deterrence and Baltic security.

This study investigates the influence of macroeconomic variables on the volatility of Islamic stock indices in India (Nifty 50 Shariah) and China (FTSE Shariah China) using the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity–mixed data sampling (GARCH–MIDAS) model. We analyse monthly data from July 2010 to December 2023, focusing on the impact of inflation (consumer price index [CPI]) and short-term interest rates (91-day T-bill rate for India and the interbank rate for China) on the long-term volatility component. Utilising the GARCH–MIDAS model, this research seeks to identify how macroeconomic variables affect the instability of Islamic stock indices within India’s Nifty 50 Shariah and China’s FTSE Shariah China. We examine monthly data between July 2010 and December 2023, focusing on the effect of inflation (CPI) and short-term interest rates (91-day T-bill rate for India and interbank rate for China) on long-run volatility component. We have found out that there is a strong positive correlation between short-term interest rates and long-term volatility in both markets, which means that perhaps Muslim investors are using conventional interest rates to determine their Islamic investments. But the effect of CPI differs between them, as it has an insignificant effect in India and a marginally significant but negative impact in China. This difference shows how essential it is to look at national factors when studying the volatility of Islamic stock exchanges. It is noted here that in both locations there is evidence of the leverage effect, so that bad news greatly influences volatility compared to good news. Also, we did not find any regular pattern when comparing Islamic stock returns and traditional interest rates while conducting a benchmark study. The above findings have important implications for those who invest or manage funds or make policies in these new economies—showing them how they should adapt their investment and risk management plans to specific situations. JEL Codes: C58, E44, G15, G17