Short-run Estimates Research Articles

Investigation of the Dynamic Relationship between Oil Temperature and Bearing Gearbox Condition Indicator Values for the Bell 407 Helicopter Based on Cointegration Analysis

The primary objective of this study is to investigate the dynamic relationship between oil temperature and the Bearing Gearbox Condition Indicator (BGCI) values of the Bell 407 helicopter. To achieve this goal, we employ robust econometric tools, such as unit root tests, cointegration tests, and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models for both, long-run and short-run estimates. Our findings indicate that variable temperature tends to converge to its long-run equilibrium path in response to changes in other variables. The results of the ARDL analysis confirm that spectral kurtosis, inner race, cage, and ball energy significantly contribute to the increase in temperature. Furthermore, we use the impulse response function (IRF) to trace the dynamic response paths of shocks to the system. The identification of a cointegrating relationship between oil temperature and BGCI values suggests a practical and significant connection that can potentially be used to predict hazardous changes in oil temperature using BGCI values, which is an important implication for enhancing the safety and reliability of helicopter operations. This study presents a promising direction for condition monitoring (CM) in rotating aircraft machinery, emphasizing the potential of integrating temperature data to simplify the diagnostic process while still achieving reliable results.

Impact of Stock Market Integration on Industrial Corporate Investment in Nigeria: An Empirical Study (1986-2023)

Nigeria, a sub-Saharan African nation, is endowed with an abundance of natural resources, particularly those needed for industrial purposes. Despite this, the present level of output in the industrial sector in Nigeria is too low, particularly when it comes to investment undertaking by corporate investors. Therefore, the study examined the effect of stock market integration on industrial corporate investment in Nigeria from 1986-2023. Data used were sourced from the Central bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. The study used Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), bound test and Autoregressive Distributed Lag. The ADF estimate indicated that money supply and all share index were integrated of order one; while, corporate investment, stock market integration, real exchange rate, and lending interest rate were integrated of order zero. The F-value for the bound test estimate was much higher than upper bound of critical value at 5% conventional level; therefore, suggesting a long-run link between the use variables. The short-run estimates showed that stock market integration, real exchange rate and all share index were significant with direct effect on corporate investment; while, money supply and lending interest rate were significant also with indirect effects. Furthermore, long-run estimate showed that money supply and all share index were significant with direct effect on corporate investment; while, real exchange rate and lending interest rate were significant with indirect effects. This suggests that stock market integration currently witnessing in Nigeria is tentative. The study concluded that the current growth witnessing by industrial corporate investment in Nigeria due to stock market integration is not sustainable. Therefore, recommended that the Nigerian Exchange Group’s management should ensure that stock market price exhibit low volatility rate by making sure that its stocks management policies reflect best global stock exchange practice.

Impact of Financial Development on Economic Growth in Nigeria

In Nigeria, financial development has been fluctuating and has not made significant impact on economic growth as a result of inadequate credit to the private sector that is supposed to improve investment in the economy. This study therefore examines the impact of financial development on economic growth in Nigeria, covering 1986 to 2022. The autoregressive distributed lag model was employed and the long run result reveals that interest rate (INT), lagged value of broad money supply (M2(-1)) and domestic credit to private sector (DCP) have positive impacts on GDPG while broad money supply (M2) has a negative impact on GDPG. The short run estimate indicates that INT and DCP have positive impact on economic growth, while the coefficient of M2 has negative impact on economic growth in Nigeria. In conclusion, financial development can be said to contribute to economic growth. This is because, when government allocates adequate credit to private sectors, investments are made in enhancing the productivity that will encourage investments to take place. These investments will lead to employment generation, and in turn lead to output growth. In this regard, the study recommends that the Nigerian government should increase allocation of credit to the private sector in order to improve investment and ensure the autonomy of relevant monetary authorities.

Factor productivity nexus economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Symmetric and asymmetric panel approaches

This study examines the effect and role of total factor productivity with other major determinants on economic growth in the Sub – Saharan Africa(SSA).It employs the data obtained from the World Bank Development Indicators spanning from 1990 to 2022 using panel ARDL, GMM and their extended asymmetric non-linear (NARDL) and (NGMM) models. The NARDL and NGMM are more superior to the counterpart ARDL and GMM symmetric models in the long-run than the short-run estimation, ensuring more efficient and reliable information regarding the effects of productivity on economic growth analysis. Finally, the robust dynamic inter-temporal Granger causality tests show that asymmetrically there is bi-directional causality between the growth rate of an upward movement in total factor productivity and real GDP. There is also bi-directional causality of a downward movement in the growth rate of the terms of trade and real GDP growth rate. The empirical findings of the study are extremely important indicators for sustained economic growth in the SSA region. Hence, this research work recommends that governments should enhance total factor productivity and terms of trade through job-trainning provision and promote trading among themselves as policy tools.

Effect of Stock Market Development on Financial Savings in Tanzania: An Empirical Investigation (1999-2023)

The performance of the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange (DSE) since its inception in 1998 followed liberalization of the financial sector in 1991 has been very positive and has also demonstrated that there is huge untapped potential financial capital within the country. For this reason, this study aimed at investigating the impact of stock market development on financial savings in Tanzania from 1999 to 2023 period using quarterly time series data. The study employs econometric analysis in which the error correction model (ECM) is applied to analyze the financial savings function. The overall significant determinants of financial savings included in the model were statistically significant. The results indicated that real GDP in both long run and short run estimation is relevant variable for explaining the variations in the financial savings in Tanzania whereas stock market in terms market capitalization is relevant variable both in the short-run and long run estimation. There is significant evidence that stock market development in Tanzania has negative effect and that it reduces financial savings function in both short run and long-run via market capitalization. The negative effect of stock market development on financial savings might poses problems to the conduct of monetary policy in Tanzania, by failing to correctly target monetary growth in the economy.

The linkages between energy efficiency, renewable electricity, human capital and inclusive growth: The role of technological development

This study highlights the important role of strategic policy interventions in promoting sustainable economic prosperity and social equity in OECD economies. It specifically focuses on the positive effects of technological development, energy efficiency, renewable electricity, and human capital on inclusive growth across 35 OECD economies from 1990 to 2019. We employed cross-sectional augmented distributed lag, fully modified ordinary least squares, and dynamic ordinary least squares to analyze the data. The long-run and short-run estimates show that technological development, energy efficiency, renewable electricity, human capital, and renewable energy consumption have positive effects on inclusive growth. Based on these findings, we propose that the government should provide funds for innovation and technological development, and it improves access to information and services, it increases productivity and efficiency, creates new job opportunities, and promotes inclusive growth. Moreover, the government should promote energy efficiency, which will help in cost savings, job creation, improved access to energy, inclusive growth, and environmental benefits.

How does hydrogen energy technology help to achieve carbon neutrality targets?

In recent times, the role of hydrogen technology has become more important in decarbonizing society and achieving carbon neutrality targets. However, the nexus between hydrogen technology and carbon neutrality has not received attention from the empirics. Therefore, this analysis is an effort to plug this gap in the literature by examining the role of hydrogen technology in achieving carbon neutrality targets in six top hydrogen technologies innovative and polluting economies from 1995 to 2021. This study employs the CS-ARDL to obtain the short and long-run results. According to the long-run outcomes, hydrogen technology, green ICT, and financial development cause carbon emissions to fall. In contrast, the GDP boosts the carbon emissions. On the other hand, the short-run estimates don't show any significant relationship with the carbon emissions. These results highlight the significance of hydrogen technology and suggest that policymakers should increase the role of hydrogen technology in energy and related sectors in top polluted economies to help them achieve zero-emission targets.

Do FDI and foreign remittance inflows affect the unemployment rate? A new insight

This study aims to investigate the impact of FDI and foreign remittances on unemployment from 1991 to 2020 from Bangladesh's perspective. With the use of EViews 10 version, this study used the ARDL technique to capture the long-run and short-run estimations. The study utilized the unemployment rate as a dependent variable and foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign remittances as independent factors. The remaining factors include exchange rate, GDP growth, exports, and inflation rate; these are controllable variables. The results of the research show that FDI and foreign remittance have a positive and statistically significant association with unemployment rate in Bangladesh, both in the long run and in the short term. Thus, according to the findings, FDI and foreign remittances are creating more unemployment in Bangladesh. Unlike the general economic theory, which states that the bidirectional relationship of FDI with the unemployment rate, as well as foreign remittances with the unemployment rate, is inverse, these research outcomes basically suggest that FDI and foreign remittance inflows are displacing domestic labor with, perhaps, a low-cost, highly skilled overseas workforce, and also indicate that there might be an increasing trend in the brown-field investment sector. For policy implications, this investigation lends support to the theory that Bangladesh should focus more and more on skilled development policies for domestic workers and create a sound environment for foreign investors in order to reduce the country's unemployment rate.

The impact of eco-preneurship and green technology on greenhouse gas emissions - An analysis of East Asian economies

The pressing need to address the effects of rising greenhouse gas emissions on the environment has become a global concern. Policymakers, governments, and stakeholders advocate a sustainable clean environment. Therefore, green technology and eco-entrepreneurship initiatives are being implemented to reduce these emissions. Despite their efforts in sustainable environments, there is insufficient research on how these initiatives impact economies. This study explores the impact of eco-entrepreneurship and green technology on reducing greenhouse gas emissions in East Asia. Using China and Japan, ranked the first and fifth highest greenhouse gas emitters globally, as case studies, the study employed ARDL and NARDL models for empirical analysis. The findings show that short-run linear estimates of eco-entrepreneurship are significant only in China, while nonlinear short-run estimates are significant for both China and Japan. Comparably, short-run linear estimates of green technology are significant for both China and Japan, while nonlinear coefficient estimates are significant only in Japan. The linear estimate of eco-entrepreneurship was significant and negative in both countries. The coefficient estimates for green technology are significant and negative for both countries. In the nonlinear model, the positive shock coefficient estimates for eco-entrepreneurship are negative and significant in China and Japan. These initiatives are vital for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving East Asian economies.

Fintech inclusion in natural resource utilization, trade openness, resource productivity, recycling and minimizing waste generation: Does technology really drive economies toward green growth?

Ever since the industrial revolution, financial sector is considered a significant claimant of driving growth in society. However, adverse eco-friendly projects by financial means raise various concerns that either financial market products benefit environment. In this lieu, the present study aims to analyze the role of fintech in natural resource utilization, trade openness, resource productivity and recycling and minimizing waste generation in China. For this purpose, data from the 1995 to 2021 period is analyzed using the “Quantile Autoregressive Distributed lag (QARDL) model. The Granger causality test is also used to analyze the causal association between variables and to know about their relative significance. According to the findings, the error correction term (ECM) has an expected negative sign with statistical significance across different quantiles showing that the relationship between these variables reverts to the long-run equilibrium. QARDL short run and long run estimation indicates that fintech promotes natural resource utilization, resource productivity, trade openness, and recycling of waste materials and management with the significance of these effects varying at different quantiles. The findings of Granger Causality indicate that a bidirectional association is present between fintech and recycling and waste management, and unidirectional causality is found to be present from fintech to resource productivity. The study recommends the government formulate and implement policies aimed at promoting fintech and integrating them with streamlined natural resources and industrial and trade sectors.

Renewable energy consumption and its impacts on agriculturalization under climate neutrality targets

Improvements in energy efficiency, cost savings, and environmental advantages are possible effects of adopting and using renewable energy in agriculture. However, whether renewable energy consumption (REC) has any impact on agricultural productivity is a research question that this analysis tries to answer. Previous research neglected to consider the influence of REC on agriculture. The primary objective of the analysis is to analyze the role of REC in sustainable agriculture in Asia, America, Africa, and Europe with the help latest econometric technique of the CS-ARDL model. The findings show that REC and technological capital (TC) improve long-run agriculturalization in the full sample, Asia, Africa, America, and Europe. The results infer that a 1% increase in REC causes agriculturalization to boost by 1.512% in the full sample, 1.254% in Asia, 1.654% in Africa, 0.897% in America, and 1.325% in Europe. In addition, financial development favorably influences long-run agricultural productivity in the full sample, Africa, America, and Europe, and population growth only impacts agricultural productivity in the long run. In contrast, the long-run agricultural productivity is negatively impacted by environmental pollution globally and in Asia. On the other hand, in the short run, TC positively impacts agricultural productivity in all samples, while other short-run estimates are insignificant in most samples. These findings suggest that renewable energy utilization may lead to more effective and resilient agricultural systems by supplying clean and dependable electricity, lowering greenhouse gas emissions, and supporting sustainable resource management.

Industrialization and Employment Generation in Nigeria: An Empirical Analysis<b></b>

This study examined the impact of industrialization on employment creation, taking evidence from the Nigerian economy and using annual data covering the period of 1990 to 2022. The specific objectives were to determine the causal relationship between industrialization and employment creation in Nigeria and to examine the impact of industrialization on employment creation in Nigeria. To draw empirical evidence, the econometric methods of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) with Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) and the Granger causality test were employed as the analytical techniques. The results of the ARDL and ECM reveal that a short-run and long-run relationship exists between industrial sector output and employment creation (proxied by the unemployment rate) in Nigeria. With the establishment of a long-run relationship and the aid of the ARDL bounds test for cointegration, the long-run and short-run estimates were estimated. The findings of the study reveal that industrial sector performance has a negative and significant impact on the unemployment rate in Nigeria. In other words, it has a positive and significant impact on employment creation in Nigeria. Therefore, the study, among other requisite recommendations, suggests that the Nigerian authority prioritize the growth and improvement of the industrial sector through the provision of basic infrastructure such as transport networks, energy systems, and communication technologies, among others.

Non-Oil Tax Revenue and Infrastructural Development in Nigeria

Abstract In Nigeria, there has been a decline in oil revenue. This has impacted negatively on infrastructural development. This paper seeks to examine the effect of non-oil revenue as an alternative source of revenue for infrastructural development. The research design of the study was the ex post facto research design. The source of data was the secondary source and a time series of data from 1981 to 2021 was used in carrying out the research. The Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) bounds test was used to determine the long-run and short-run relationship between the dependent and independent variables. It was observed that the variables are co-integrated, and as such, a long-run and short-run relationship exists among the explanatory variables. Furthermore, the ARDL short-run estimation result shows that the non-oil tax variables (proxied by VAT, CUSTD, and CIT) have a positive and significant effect on infrastructural development (proxied by total electricity production measured in Gigawatt hours (GWh) in Nigeria. In tandem, the ARDL long-run estimation results reveal that value-added tax, customs duties, and company income tax have a positive and significant impact on infrastructural development in Nigeria. Hence, an increase in the non-oil tax revenue base will boost infrastructural development in Nigeria in the long run. This finding is in tandem with the ARDL short-run estimation result. Therefore, it is inferred that Nigeria can experience infrastructural development when genuine commitment is made to explore an increase in non-oil revenue generation instead of being over-dependent on oil revenue.

Digital currencies and the Nigerian economy: Evidence from selected coins

This study emphasizes the implication of dynamic connection between digital currency and Nigerian economic growth rate by focusing attention on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin with respect to their returns and volatility from 2010Q4 to 2022Q3. As a way to have a robust estimation, we model our analysis using ARDL model and granger causality test. This model is rather useful to have both short and long run estimations. Importantly the study’s outcome conforms with the fundamentals. By findings from the study, the trend analysis suggests that the country’s exchange rate moves in line with digital currency activities while at the same time signifies some implication on the growth rate of the Nigerian economy. While lower returns for Bitcoin and Litecoin increase growth rate, the return for Ethereum rather move in the same direction as the growth rate. This indeed suggest that most Nigerians into digital currency activities often engage in portfolio diversification among available coins. The study further found that low volatility in the market will raise (significantly especially for Ethereum) growth rate of the economy while causal implication run from returns and volatilities of these coins to growth and exchange rates. Indeed, the findings have important policy implication for the Nigerian economy which suggests paying good attention to digital currency activities in the country and formulating necessary policies to improve it.

AN ARDL ANALYSIS ON THE EFFECT OF OIL PRICE INSTABILITY ON FOREIGN RESERVE IN NIGERIA (2015-2022)

The paper employed auto regressive distributive lag (ARDL) model to examine the effect of oil price instability on foreign reserve in Nigeria using recent monthly time series data over the period of 2015-2022. The results of ARDL Bound cointegration indicated a presence of cointegration in the model which confirms an existence of long run relationship between oil price instability and foreign reserve. The findings of ARDL long run analysis show that oil price instability have negative and significant effect on foreign reserve. Likewise, inflation rate has a negative and significant effect on foreign reserve. On the other hand, oil revenue is found to have a positive and significant effect on foreign reserve. Furthermore, the ARDL short run estimates indicate that an existence of a short run relationship between oil prices and foreign reserve. From the findings, the coefficient of error correction term indicates that about 30% of the discrepancy between the actual and the long run or equilibrium value of foreign reserve is corrected or eliminated each month. Furthermore, the results of granger causality test indicate a unidirectional causality between oil price instability and foreign reserve. Based on the empirical findings, the paper suggests the need for the policy makers to adopt policy framework that will get rid of corruption and ensure macroeconomic stability. Policymakers should also take steps to mitigate the negative effects of oil price fluctuations on foreign reserve in Nigeria.

Navigating the green future: Unraveling the role of fintech, decentralization, natural resources, and monetary policy uncertainty in China

Improving environmental integrity is a crucial policy agenda in achieving sustainable development goals, and reliable carbon emission measure is imperative in devising an effective climate strategy. Increasing climate susceptibility instigates us to explore the factors of ecological sustainability. Therefore, we scrutinize the dynamic influence of monetary policy uncertainty, mineral resources dependency, Fintech, fiscal decentralization, and trade on consumption-based carbon emissions (CCE) in China using the quarterly data from Q1-2005 to Q4-2021. For estimation, the study employed the bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method, and the overall findings exhibit that fiscal decentralization significantly decreases the CCE, while monetary policy uncertainty, Fintech, and natural resources dependency increase CCE. Imports are responsible for higher CCE, while exports report the opposite. Consistent findings are endorsed by the short-run estimates with lower magnitude, and the error correction term significantly adjusts towards the steady state equilibrium with 61.0% quarterly adjustment in case of any deviation from stready state equilibrium. The results also confirm a bi-directional causality among all variables except Fintech, policy uncertainty, and CCE. This study offers relevant policy recommendations.

Grain Production in Turkey and Its Environmental Drivers Using ARDL in the Age of Climate Change

This study aims to evaluate the long-run and causality relationships between the annual grain production (kg per hectare) in Turkey, fertilizer used in agriculture, the number of tractors, agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, and grain production area from 1988 to 2018. The study’s data for the years 1988–2018 were taken from the World Bank and Turkish Statistical Institute (Turkstat) databases. The autoregressive distributed lag bounds (ARDL) test was applied to estimate the cointegration between the variables. The cointegration test results confirmed a long-run relationship between the variables. The short-run estimation revealed that the error correction coefficient was negative and statistically significant. The result obtained for the error correction term estimated that the deviations from the short-run equilibrium would be corrected, and the system would converge to the long-run equilibrium within 1.05 years. Further, the long-run estimation showed that all variables included in the model had a statistically significant effect on the dependent variable. While this relationship was negative for grain production amount and carbon emission, it was positive for fertilizer use and the number of tractors. The grain areas estimated as the dependent variable in the ARDL model were in a feedback relationship with the current production and number of tractors variables, while the fertilizer and carbon emission variables were in a unidirectional causality relationship towards the grain production area. There is a negative relationship between grain production (kg per hectare) and grain production areas (hectares). A 1% increase in grain production leads to a decrease of approximately 0.30% in grain production areas. Agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, another variable that stands out with its negative impact in ARDL long-run estimation results, indicate that product groups produced as an alternative to grain have a higher emission-generating power. The other long-run estimation results reveal that the tractor variable positively affects grain production areas.

Urbanization, Energy Consumption and Environmental Quality in Asian Countries

The rate of urbanization has enhanced around the globe. By moving the production from less to more energy-intensive sources, increasing the rate of urbanization leads to more energy consumption. The major threat to the environment of the world is the increasing rate of greenhouse gas emissions and global warming. The main purpose of this study is to elaborate on the relationship between urbanization, energy consumption, and CO2 emission in Asian countries. In this study, CO2 is used as a dependent variable while urban population, population density, renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, GDP per capita growth, the square of GDP per capita growth, and trade are used as the independent variables. We have obtained data from 1980 to 2020 from 32 Asian countries. Data have been taken from the sources of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and World Development Indicators (WDI). We have used the panel ARDL technique for the long-run and short-run estimation of variables. The findings of this study reveal that non-renewable energy has a positive but insignificant whereas per capita GDP growth, urban population, population density, and trade have a positive effect; and per capita square of GDP growth and renewable energy consumption has a negative and significant effect on CO2 emission. The findings of Granger causality show that there is uni-variate causality running from non-renewable energy consumption towards CO2 emission and from urban population to renewable energy. There is bi-variate causality running from renewable energy to CO2, non-renewable to renewable energy consumption, and from urban population to non-renewable energy consumption. There is no causality exists between the urban population and CO2 emission. This study suggests that the Government may adopt more energy conservation policies to reduce CO2 emissions. The government may suggest using the public transportation system rather than the private transportation system to mitigate CO2 emissions.

Dynamic Impacts of School-Based Internet Access on Student Learning: Evidence from Peruvian Public Primary Schools

We investigate the impacts of school-based internet access on second graders’ test scores, using over 2 million student observations from a panel of Peruvian public primary schools. We identify effects up to 6+ years after installation on different cohorts of second-grade students, exploiting variation in the timing of internet access induced by the rollout of a national program. We find positive but modest short-run impacts, but importantly, these effects grow for subsequent cohorts. Indeed, short-run estimates alone would have led to different conclusions. These dynamics underscore the value of extended evaluation windows to allow benefits of educational technology to materialize. (JEL I21, I26, I28, O15)

Is North Africa region on track to energy trilemma for enhancing economic progress? The role of population growth and energy usage

Considering the complexity of energy systems and the uncertainties surrounding the transition path, governments must take into account not only environmental concerns but also energy security and affordability in economic progress pathways. Therefore, using population growth and energy usage as control variables, the influence of the energy trilemma index on economic progress in the North African region is explored from 1990 to 2020. Advanced econometric approaches, particularly cross-sectional dependence, and second-generation tests, are used for empirical investigation. In addition, for short-run estimates, the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation with fixed and random effects is utilized, while for estimation in the long-run, generalized least squares (GLS) estimations for a fixed and random effect, while, fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) are used for robustness check. Our results refer to the positive significant influence of energy trilemma and energy usage on economic progress and the negative significant influence of population growth on economic progress. In addition, a two-way causal linkage exists between energy trilemma and economic progress, while population growth and energy usage cause economic progress. This may stress policymakers to accelerate the energy transition to low-carbon energies, appropriately use the nation's human resources, and promote energy efficiency.