Short-run Bidirectional Causality Research Articles

Relation Between Inflation and Capital Market in India

Capital market has significant influence on the inflationary situation in an economy both in the short run and in the long run. The general determinants which affect capital market are share indices, stock prices, prices of gold and silver, interest rate, exchange rate and even money supply can be treated as influencing variable when money is treated as capital. In this paper the author examined the impact of capital market on inflation in India during 1980-2022 taking CPI and WPI as the indicators of inflation and gold price, silver price, BSE index, BSE market capitalization, money supply and rupee dollar nominal exchange rate are considered as the indicators of capital market. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test was applied to verify unit root for all variables including break unit roots and the author calculated growth rates during 1980 – 2022 using the simple semi-log linear trend model. Author applied Johansen cointegration test and vector error correction models among the variables in both the cases of CPI and WPI and calculated short run causality through Wald test and long run causality through cointegrating equation. In VECM, the paper found one significant cointegrating equation in case of CPI and found three significant cointegrating equations in WPI. The paper found that CPI has long run causal relationships with BSE index, BSE market capitalisation, money supply and rupee dollar exchange rate and WPI has long run cointegrating relationships with BSE market capitalisation, money supply and rupee dollar exchange rate respectively. Rupee dollar exchange rate has short run causal relationships with CPI and again CPI and BSE index has bidirectional short run causality. According to impulse response functions, the responses of CPI to gold price, BSE market capitalization and money supply have been approaching towards equilibrium but finally diverged away from equilibrium. There are significant short run causalities from BSE index and money supply to WPI. The impulse response of WPI to gold price, silver price, BSE index, BSE market capitalisation and exchange rate of rupee have been converging towards equilibrium many times although diverged finally. The model can be modified by including interest rate, share prices, bond prices under monthly data analysis.

Connexion Between Cryptocurrencies Liquid and Futures Markets: Discernment from Static, Dynamic and Wavelet Approach

The knowledge of the interconnectedness between liquid and futures markets of cryptocurrencies amidst dynamic contemporary environment can be enriched through the full characterization of the direction, persistence and intensity of information flows between these markets. So, the present study attempts to investigate the static and dynamic connexions between liquid and futures markets of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Ripple XRP and Bitcoin Cash from June 2018 to June 2022. The connexion between their liquid and futures markets is first investigated using unconditional correlation, Johansen’s cointegration, vector error correction and Wald’s block exogeneity. Their estimates discern connexions encompassing significant long-run relationships between their liquid and futures markets; momentous unidirectional long-run causality from their futures market to liquid market; and momentous bidirectional short-run causality from their liquid market to futures market and from their futures market to liquid market. The present treatise encompasses methodological advancement in the investigation of interconnectedness between these markets by employing a dynamic conditional correlation model and a wavelet transform framework. Their discerned estimates indicate that the markets of Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum and Bitcoin Cash have only momentous long-run perseverance, lingering and spillover effects of shocks’ sway on conditional correlations. However, there is momentous short- and long-run perseverance, lingering and spillover effects in the case of Ripple XRP. The wavelet coherence analysis also confirms these results by indicating a bidirectional short-run causal relation and a long-run positive comovement between liquid returns and futures returns of these cryptocurrencies. These discernments may help investors, portfolio managers and policymakers to enhance hedging effectiveness through optimal portfolio allocation and monitor financial contagion to attain and sustain financial stability in economies.

The relationship between CO2 emissions, economic growth, available energy, and employment in SEE countries.

As a result of a greater worldwide aspiration for wealth and economic progress, increased use of natural resources for diverse industries resulted in increased pollution emissions, mainly carbon dioxide. Energy security, economic stability, job security, biodiversity loss, climate change, and global warming all require reconciliation and resolution now, more than ever before. This paper explores the causal relationship between CO2 emissions, economic growth, available energy, and employment for a panel of eight South-Eastern European countries from 1995 to 2019. We investigate the relationship using panel unit root tests, panel cointegration methods, and panel causality tests. The results show a short-run bidirectional panel causality between CO2 emissions and employment and between available energy and employment. The results further indicate a unidirectional causality from available energy and employment to GDP. The long-run causal relationship results show that the estimated coefficients of the lagged ECT in the CO2 emissions, GDP, and employment equations are statistically significant, implying that these variables could play a significant role in the system’s adjustment process as it departs from long-run equilibrium. We also conducted a variance decomposition analysis, which allowed us to compare the extent of the individual factors’ contributions to each other over the next 5 years.

On the interdependence between biofuel, fossil fuel and agricultural food prices: Evidence from quantile tests

This study investigates the long- and short-run relationships between fossil fuel, biofuel and agricultural food commodity prices by applying the cointegration and causality analysis. This study employs a quantile approach to consider the non-linearity and asymmetry in the relationship of data. To reduce a possible noise contained in the data, this study uses weekly average data of biofuel (ethanol), fossil fuel (West Texas Intermediate [WTI] oil) and agricultural food commodity (corn) futures prices from April 18, 2005 to October 30, 2020. The main findings are summarised as follows. First, we discover no evidence of cointegration between the quantiles of WTI oil, ethanol and corn prices when all quantiles are considered, although the results of the linear cointegration test are inconclusive. Second, results of the Granger non-causality test in quantiles reveal a significant short-run bidirectional causality between the returns of WTI oil, ethanol and corn prices, for all or most quantiles of the distribution. This implies asymmetric and nonlinear causal linkage between these variables. Moreover, the results of our analysis have several policy implications, including energy price stability, decrease in energy dependence on fossil fuels, promotion of agricultural industry, environmental sustainability, energy conversion and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.

Integration and Volatility Spillover Among Environmental, Social and Governance Indices: Evidence from BRICS Countries

The current research examines the integration of environmental, social and governance (ESG) equity indices among emerging markets, that is, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). Daily data of the ESG equity index from 1 January 2012 to 31 December 2021 are collected from Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI). The article employs Johansen’s co-integration test for long-term co-movement and Granger causality tests for causality among ESG equity indices. The study also used the BEKK model to investigate the volatility spillover among the ESG indices. Further, the study also calculated hedge ratios and portfolio weights. The results indicate that none of the ESG indices is co-integrated and short-run bi-directional causality exists across the four ESG indices. All the indices are significantly affected by their past shock and volatility. However, India’s ESG index is influenced by the past shock of South Africa and the past volatility of China. The findings suggest that the flow of information between the ESG indices of emerging countries is not developed yet to the point where they may be integrated into the BRICS countries. As a result, these sustainable equity indices must be promoted even more to become fully integrated.

The impact of macroeconomic factors on food price inflation: an evidence from India

The present study investigates the impact of macroeconomic factors on food price inflation in India utilizing the monthly time series during January 2006–March 2019. The long-run relationship is confirmed among the variables using the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration. The coefficients of long-run estimates show that per capita income, money supply, global food prices, and agricultural wages are positively and significantly impacted food price inflation in both the short and long-run. While food grain availability has a negative and significant impact on food price inflation in both the short-run and long run. Further, the short-run estimates revealed that real exchange rate positively impacts food price inflation. However, the coefficient is insignificant in the short-run. The Granger causality estimates show that a short-run bidirectional causality is confirmed among per capita income, the exchange rate, per capita net availability of food grain and food price inflation. Further, there is evidence of unidirectional causality running from global food prices to food price inflation. However, there is no causal relationship running from money supply and agricultural wages to food price inflation in the short-run.

Islamic Market Index Behavior and Performance: Empirical Evidence from Dow Jones Market Indexes

The main objective of the study is to empirically investigate the impact of the Conventional stock market index on the Islamic stock market index and the comparative performance of the two stock market indexes. For the purpose of the study, daily observations of Dow Jones Islamic Market US Titans 50 (DJUS50) and Dow Jones Composite Index (DJA) spanning a period from January 2015 until December 2021 are obtained from the Investing.com database. Risk-adjusted performance, VAR model, granger-causality test, generalized impulse response functions, and Johansen cointegration tests are used to investigate the behavior and performance of the Islamic market index empirically. Results based on risk-adjusted performance indicate that the Islamic market index performs better than the Conventional market index. Furthermore, the results suggest no long-run association between the indexes, while there is short-run bidirectional causality. This study will contribute both to the literature and practice. It will contribute to the already existing literature through the usage of the newest data, while the practical implication will help investors to better understand the behavior of the Islamic stock market index.

Crypto-Currency: Trends and Determinants

In this paper, author analyses the role of cryptocurrencies in the economy and showed the trends of prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum in terms of US$ during 2017m1-2021m12 and also showed the trends of the market capitalization of Bitcoin during 2017m1-2021m12. All the trendlines are non-linear with cyclical behavior. Traditional regression model revealed that the market capitalization of Bitcoin is positively related with prices of Bitcoin and inflation rate and negatively related with price of Ethereum significantly from 2019m1 to 2021m12. Cointegration and VEC model suggested that the market capitalization of Bitcoin has long run causality with the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum and inflation rate but the cointegrating equation has been proved diverging away from equilibrium. Bitcoin price and market capitalization have bi-directional short run causality and the price of Ethereum has short run causality to market capitalization of Bitcoin during the specified period. The volatility of market capitalization of Bitcoin showed a non-stationary process.

Empirical exploration of remittances and renewable energy consumption in Bangladesh

In recent years, a surge of remittances to Bangladesh has enabled rural households to adopt modern renewable energy sources. However, researchers have yet to examine any statistical association between remittances and renewable energy. In this study, we determined the causal relationships between per capita remittance inflows and renewable energy consumption in Bangladesh using annual data for the period 1980–2017. This is the first such study. This determination was made while controlling for changes in GDP, and employing causality and cointegration testing. We arrived at three key results. First, a unidirectional causality running from the level of remittances per capita to a level of renewable energy consumption was determined. Second, we observed a unique cointegrating relationship between the variables. Third, a short-run bidirectional causality between remittances per capita and renewable energy consumption was clarified. Important policy implications indicate that the government should create incentives for remittance-recipient households to invest remittance funds in modern renewable technologies such as solar home energy systems.

Garment Sector Development Nexus Economic Growth in Bangladesh: A Dynamic Cointegration and Causality Analysis

In Bangladesh the garment sector is one of the major industrial sector which occupied its foremost presence in the economy of the country in terms of foreign exchange earnings, contribution to GDP, and employment generation and as well. The garment sector plays significant roles for socio-economic development and poverty alleviation in Bangladesh. The export-oriented readymade garments (RMG) sector in Bangladesh, started its journey in late 1970s as a small non-traditional sector of export. The industry began its journey from 1978 and formally started its journey in the 1980s, after that RMG sector of Bangladesh started growing, capture the market globally and providing valuable performance. In 1979 the garment sector exported only 0.672 million $ with operating 12 garment factories by 0.39 million workers but in 2020 within a span of two decays export values have gone up to 31456.73 million USD with its 4764 export oriented garment industries including 4.23 million workers. Thus an important question is usually raised by the researchers, is there a long-run cointegration relationship between garment sector development and economic growth in Bangladesh? To give the answer of this question this paper has tried to find out whether the long-run cointegration relationship exists between garment sector development and economic growth in Bangladesh economy. The study is used the times series data from 1976-2020 for garment sector development and economic growth. The existence of long-run cointegration relationship is found between garment sector development and economic growth in Bangladesh economy. From the estimated results of the vector error correction (VEC) model it is found that there exists short run bidirectional causality between garment sector development and economic growth. The significance and negative sign of test statistic of ECM(-1) denotes the existence of long run causality between garment sector development and economic growth. Therefore, it can be presumed that there is a long-run equilibrium connection between garment sector development and economic expansion in Bangladesh economy. From the estimated values of response function it can be said that with respect to one standard deviation the variable garment sector development responds positively for the next fifteen years in the variable economic growth in Bangladesh.

The Nexus of Government Spending, Price, Output, and Money in the ECOWAS Sub-Region: Evidence from Panel ARDL and Causality Approach

Abstract The question of how macroeconomic variables dynamically interact is very crucial in any broad-based economic integration aiming at expanding economic growth and living standard in any human society. This study examined the nexus of government spending, price, output, and money in the ECOWAS sub-region using panel ARDL and causality approach. Data covering the period (1981–2019) were collected mainly from the latest version of the World Development Indicators. The result showed a positive relationship between government spending with GDP, import, exchange rate, unemployment rate, and population growth rate but a negative relationship between government spending with inflation, money supply, export, and interest rate. The result further showed short-run unidirectional causality running from government spending to inflation, money supply to inflation as well as money supply to GDP. Short-run bi-directional causality existed between GDP and inflation but none between government spending and GDP nor between government spending and money supply. The result of long-run Granger causality test showed bi-directional causality between government spending with inflation, government spending, and money supply; GDP and inflation; and GDP and money supply. Unidirectional causality ran from GDP to government spending; and money supply to inflation. The overall implication of this study established that an increase in government spending lowered inflation and raised the living standard of people in the ECOWAS sub-region in the long run. The study therefore concluded that any rise in import, unemployment rate, exchange rate, and population growth rate would raise government spending growth rate in the short run; and an increase in government spending would shrink inflation and boost economic growth and living standard in the long run.

The Relationship between CO2 Emissions, Industry, Services and Gross Fixed Capital Formation in the Balkan Countries

The examination of the economy-environment nexus is one of the focal issues in the field of environmental economics. This study examines the causal relationships between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, industry, services, and gross fixed capital formation for a panel of Balkan countries over the period 1996-2017. A three-step methodological approach is used, including panel unit root tests, panel cointegration tests, and panel causality tests. The results suggest a strong cointegration between the variables, meaning that all variables have a long-run relationship with CO2 emissions. The results of the panel causality show that there is a short-run bidirectional panel causality running between industry and services, and gross fixed capital formation and services. Moreover, there is a unidirectional causality running from industry and gross fixed capital formation to CO2 emissions, and from industry to gross fixed capital formation. The results of the long-run causal relationships show that estimated coefficients of the error correction terms (ECT) in the case of CO2 emissions, industry and gross fixed capital formation are statistically significant, indicating that these three variables are an important part in the adjustment process as the model diverges from the long-run equilibrium. Balkan countries need to further invest in the modernisation of their technological process, as well as to act following the global policy incentives. Environmental taxes, carbon capture and storage, taking part in emission trading schemes and orientation towards renewable energy sources, should further strengthen Balkan countries in achieving environmentally sound economic growth.

Unveiling the causal relationships among banking competition, stock and insurance market development, and economic growth in Europe

There have been major reforms of the financial system within Europe over the past two decades. These reforms were initiated to enhance the competitiveness and sustainable economic growth of economies in this region. This paper investigates the inter-relationships between the reforms undertaken in the financial sector (banking sector, stock market, and insurance industries) and economic growth in Europe. More specifically, this study examines whether there are Granger causal relationships between banking competition, stock-market development, insurance market development, and economic growth, using a panel dataset covering European countries over the period from 1996 to 2016. Utilizing a multivariate framework, the study's results show that all the variables are cointegrated. The findings reveal a network of Granger causal associates between the variables, including short-run bidirectional causality between stock market development and insurance market development. In the long run, there is compelling evidence of Granger causality from banking competition, insurance market development, and stock market development to economic growth. The results provide valuable insights into the types of financial sector reforms that will enhance sustainable economic growth in Europe.

Foreign Direct Investment, External Debt, and Balance of Payment: A Causality Analysis for Bangladesh

The purpose of this study is to analyze the causal relationship of external debt and balance of payment with foreign direct investment (FDI) in Bangladesh for the period of 1980 to 2017 through the application of Johansen Cointegration technique, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and Granger Causality approach. Results of cointegration and VECM indicate a significant long-run relationship between dependent (FDI) and independent variables (external debt and balance of payment). External debt is found to have a significant negative impact on FDI in the long-run, but it is found insignificant in the short-run. In contrast, the balance of payment has a significant positive effect on FDI both in the long-run and short-run. Results of the Granger causality test reveal that there exists bidirectional short-run causality between the balance of payment and FDI; that is, both the balance of payment and FDI affect each other. But no unidirectional or bidirectional short-run causality is found between external debt and FDI. Keywords: FDI, external debt, balance of payment, cointegration, VECM, causality

Effects of Energy Consumption on GDP: New Evidence of 24 Countries on Their Natural Resources and Production of Electricity

Because of rapid economic expansion, China, the USA, and India have become the largest energy producers and sources of CO2 emissions in the world. They burned over 45% of global fuels in 2016. Meanwhile, the developing strategies of 24 polluted states to decrease fossil energy consumption without additional economic output. This paper explores the effect of world top polluted countries’ CO2 emission, their GDP and production of electricity by potential indicators and identifies the basic factors that contribute to changes in an environment where petroleum, natural gas, coal, nuclear, biomass, and other renewable energy and hydroelectric sources are examined with GDP per capita. We estimate our data for the period from 1968 to 2017 and use the GLM model. The results show that more production of electricity is causing abnormal CO2 emissions. The Granger causality test shows that there is a unidirectional relationship between energy consumption and economic advancement. Also, there is a short-run bidirectional causality that exists among the energy indicators. We find a unilateral causality between energy consumption and economic growth. Therefore, the consumption of energy might be conductive of 24 (polluted) countries and better economic development; the consumption of energy may be failsafe and guaranteed, while we should limit the resources of countries.

AIR-TRANSPORTATION, TOURISM AND ECONOMIC GROWTH INTERACTIONS IN SRI LANKA: COINTEGRATION AND CAUSALITY ANALYSIS

Air travel growth is one of the notable responsibilities of a government specifically for an economy which depends heavily on tourism. Air travel strengthens destinations by enhancing connectivity, arrivals and other tourism reactions therefore it is recognized as a medium of revenue generation, work opportunity creation and sustainable business development. The aim of this study is to examine the causal relationship between tourism, air travel and economic growth in Sri Lanka for period of 1983-2019. The study employs the Cointegration and Granger causality approach. The results confirm that there is a stable uni directional relationship running from air transportation to economic growth in the short run bidirectional causality exists between air travel and tourism growth in Sri Lanka. The findings suggested that policymakers do not over-rely on air transportation for economic growth and that they pay more comprehensive attention to integrate the air transportation and tourism growth. It recommends policy makers to develop integrated strategies that connect air travel, tourism and economic growth.

Futures Price and Trading Volume: Evidence From Malaysia

This paper examines the long- and short-run dynamic causality between the futures price and trading volume in the Malaysian equity market. The data of futures price, trading volume and spot price are in daily frequency, spanning from 2006 to 2009. By using ARDL cointegration and VECM causality tests, the findings revealed the existence of long-run relationship between futures price, volume and spot prices. In addition, there exists a short-run bidirectional causality relationship running between futures return-trading volume and futures return-spot return. Thus, the stock index futures market in Malaysia is not informational efficient.

The impact of natural gas and renewable energy consumption on CO2 emissions and economic growth in two major emerging market economies.

For the last three decades, both China and India are considered as the largest emerging market economies in the world. Both of these economies play an essential role in the global economy in terms of economic output and CO2 emissions. Hence, these countries are expected to play an important role in setting up environmental and sustainable development policies. Therefore, our paper aims to examine the role of natural gas and renewable energy consumptions on CO2 emissions and economic growth during 1965-2016 within a multivariate framework. The autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach to cointegration and vector error correction model (VECM) is employed to explore the long-run and causal nexus among the natural gas consumption, renewable energy consumption, coal and petroleum consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic growth, respectively. The empirical results show existence of long-run equilibrium association among the variables. The Granger causality results indicate that the short-run bidirectional causality between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in India, while no causality is found between these two variables in China. However, natural gas consumption causes economic growth in China whereas no causality is confirmed in India in the short-run. The findings further suggest that there is long-run bidirectional causality among the considered variables in both countries. Our paper addresses several important policy implications.

Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in BRI Countries: Panel Causality and Policy Implications

ABSTRACT The purpose of this study is to estimate the relationships between electricity consumption and economic growth in 45 BRI countries during 1990–2015. The empirical results indicate that there are unidirectional short-run and long-run causality relationships running from economic growth to electricity consumption in all-countries and low and medium-income countries. A unidirectional long-run causality running from economic growth to electricity consumption is observed for high-income countries and the bi-directional short-run causality is found in OPEC countries. In the future, green power cooperation with consideration of host country conditions and environmental constraints should be promoted in BRI countries.

Foreign direct investment and economic growth in South America

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth in countries in South America. Additionally, the study explores the causal linkage between FDI and growth in the region. Design/methodology/approach The study employs Pedroni’s cointegration test to examine the long-run relationship between FDI and economic growth in South America. Further, the study employs the vector error correction model (VECM) to examine the long-run relationship, and the causal nexus between FDI and economic growth in South America for the period 1980–2015. Findings The Pedroni cointegration test establishes a long-run relationship between FDI and economic growth in a panel of ten countries in South America. The long-run estimates of the study find a significant positive impact of FDI on economic growth in the region. The VECM results find a short-run bidirectional causality between FDI and economic growth. The error-term is negative and significant. This indicates the presence of long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. Practical implications Countries in South America should adopt policies that would substantially enlarge FDI inflows to enhance their growth and development. Originality/value Numerous studies have examined the impact of FDI on economic growth in the context of Latin America. This study fills a gap in the existing literature by providing an empirical evidence that focuses on South America. This additional perspective could form the basis for the evaluation of the investment policies, and help policymakers to pursue FDI policies that would enhance growth and development in South America.