Short-duration Rainfall Events Research Articles

Improving Flash Flood Hydrodynamic Simulations by Integrating Leaf Litter and Interception Processes in Steep-Sloped Natural Watersheds

More frequent high-intensity, short-duration rainfall events increase the risk of flash floods on steeply sloped watersheds. Where measured data are unavailable, numerical models emerge as valuable tools for predicting flash floods. Recent applications of various hydrological and hydrodynamic models to predict overland flow have highlighted the need for improved representations of the complex flow processes that are inherent in flash floods. This study aimed to identify an optimal modeling approach for characterizing leaf litter losses during flash floods. At a gauged watershed in the Hidegvíz Valley in Hungary, a physical-based model was calibrated using two distinct rainfall–runoff events. Two modeling methodologies were implemented, integrating canopy interception and leaf litter storage, to understand their contributions during flash flood events. The results from the model’s calibration demonstrated this approach’s effectiveness in determining the impact of leaf litter on steep-sloped watersheds. Soil parameters can estimate the behavior of leaf litter during flash flood events. In this study, hydraulic conductivity and initial water content emerged as critical factors for effective parametrization. The findings underscore the potential of a hydrodynamic model to explore the relationship between leaf litter and flash flood events, providing a framework for future studies in watershed management and risk-mitigation strategies.

Pluvial Flood Susceptibility in the Local Community of the City of Gospić (Croatia)

Pluvial flooding (PF), resulting from intense short-duration rainfall events, is challenging in urban areas amidst climate change and rapid urbanization. Identifying flood-prone zones and implementing collaborative mitigation strategies with the local population are crucial aspects of PF management. This study aims to enhance the understanding of urban PF in Croatia by collecting historical PF data, creating the GIS-MCDA susceptibility model, and conducting a risk perception survey for the study area of Gospić. Susceptibility zones were generated utilizing topographical, environmental, and hydrological criteria using the AHP method. To examine the risk perception, a face-to-face survey was conducted among 5% of the city’s population (N = 64). Five factors were defined: (F1) risk awareness, (F2) anthropogenic and (F3) natural causes of PF, (F4) potential consequences, and (F5) preparedness. The reliability of the questionnaire was very high (>0.71). Most respondents believe they are ill-equipped to defend against flooding independently and express a lack of confidence in the measures taken by local authorities. The highly susceptible zones encompass not only agricultural areas but also residential zones of city. Among all respondents, 36% live in a flood-prone area and half of them have no flood insurance or other mitigation measures. Incorporating locals’ suggestions and problems, mitigation measures were proposed. Results from this research can be a starting point for further research in Croatia and can provide guidelines for decision-makers in implementing a risk mitigation strategy.

Developing synthetic sewer pipe system for data-scarce domains in application for urban flood modeling

Abstract In urban flood modeling, the accuracy of surface and subsurface flow calculations greatly depends on the parameterization of the drainage system. Incorporating the influence of the sewer pipe system is, therefore, integral to accurately simulating urban inundation during short-duration rainfall events. However, obtaining comprehensive data on sewer systems in developing countries is currently challenging. To mitigate this situation, we propose a method for developing a synthetic sewer network to supplement the representation of the sewer system in urban flood models, particularly in data-scarce domains. The model implements the concept of shallow water equation for surface flow and a 1D slot model for pipe flows with an interaction equation between them. We compare case studies with and without discharge interaction between the surface and hypothetical sewer system for the 2020 flood event in an urban subcatchment within the Marikina Basin, Philippines. Results show that the synthetic sewer pipe integration can capture the urban flood propagation more appropriately. Information such as flood depth and pipe flow discharge can aid in identifying flood-prone areas where sewer system parameters may require modifications. The proposed method can be used as an alternative to performing high-resolution urban flood simulations with limited availability of sewer network data.

Urbanization-Induced Diurnal Variation in Short-Duration Rainfall Events in Wuhan, China

Increasing of evidence suggests that rapid urbanization modifies precipitation and increases atmospheric instability in urban areas mainly due to urban heat island (UHI)-induced thermal effects and urban building-induced dynamic effects. However, few studies focus on the impact of urbanization on the diurnal variations in urban rainfall in terms of initiating time, frequency, amount, and intensity. Here, six years of hourly data from a relatively dense meteorological observation network in the Wuhan area in central China are used to quantify the issue of urbanization-induced diurnal variations in hourly rainfall and short-duration rainfall (SDR) events by comparing urban and surrounding rural stations during the summer dry period (13 July to 4 August), corresponding to hot weather with little rainfall and high evaporation. The results indicate that: (i) A higher frequency of hourly rainfall appears during night-time and afternoon over urban areas as compared to rural areas. The urban rainfall is more concentrated during the night-time; (ii) More and stronger urban SDR events are triggered during the night-time over urban areas, especially in terms of amount and intensity of rainfall events. A greater diurnal urban–rural difference in SDR events is detected than that in hourly mean rainfall; (iii) There is an enhancement in the night-time and afternoon urban SDR events when UHI intensity increases before they are initiated, and this is detectable in the frequency, amount, and intensity of SDR events. It is also found that the UHI-induced thermal effects are the main reason for the stronger nocturnal SDR events in Wuhan during the summer dry period, which is caused by increases in the convection current and water vapor flux convergence in the urban areas.

Impacts of tropical cyclones on summertime short-duration precipitation extremes over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley

This study investigated variations in summertime short-duration precipitation extremes over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (MLYRV) and the possible impacts of tropical cyclones (TC) on these changes over the 1961–2016 period. Three short-duration precipitation types, including all events and the events in the 75th and 95th percentiles, are defined. At the 75th percentile, both the amount and number of TC-induced extreme short-duration rainfall events exhibit slightly declining trends, and the trends are not pronounced for the 95th-percentile cases. The number and amount of TC-induced 95th-percentile events are approximately one order of magnitude larger than those of the 75th-percentile cases, indicating that TCs play a more significant role on the upper tail of the rainfall distribution over the MLYRV in summer than on the rest of the precipitation distribution. A large number of the defined non-TC precipitation events are mainly distributed over the central-south MLYRV and southeastern regions. The spatial patterns of TC-induced rainfall resemble the contributions of TC-induced precipitation events to the total summer rainfall, with large values located in southeastern regions of the MLYRV. The spatial distribution of 95th-percentile events is principally attributed to the frequency of TC activities and to the TC tracks. Most of the TCs that trigger 95th-percentile events make landfall over the southeast MLYRV, and the corresponding large frequency of TC tracks is mainly situated over the ocean to the east of Taiwan. Both environmental factors and atmospheric circulations modulate the variations in extreme short-duration rainfall events. In particular, equatorward displacement of the western Pacific subtropical high impacts TC track density, resulting in more occurrences of precipitation extremes in 95th-percentile events over the MLYRV.

Research on the protection of expansive soil slopes under heavy rainfall by anchor-reinforced vegetation systems

An anchor-reinforced vegetation system (ARVS) is a new type of flexible slope protection system. ARVSs are composed of vegetation, anchors and high-performance turf reinforcement mats (HPTRMs) and can maintain the stability of expansive soil slopes while producing superior ecological effects. Through in situ comprehensive monitoring and comparative analyses, we systematically discuss the impact of heavy rainfall on ARVS-protected expansive soil slopes during the local wet season in Nanning. The results show that during the local wet season, the soil temperature and water content in vegetation-covered areas are lower than those in bare areas. The soil temperatures in different areas on the expansive soil slopes decrease with increasing depth. The ARVSs significantly affected the regulation of water transport and soil temperature, which limited soil deformation in different directions. The subsequent heavy rainfall would cause greater deformation of the expansive soil slope when less antecedent rainfall fell. Low-intensity and long-duration heavy rainfall events have greater negative impacts on expansive soil slopes than high-intensity and short-duration rainfall events. Under the action of severe rainfall-evaporation, expansive soil slopes protected by ARVSs can maintain stability.

The Statistical Relationship of Lightning Activity and Short-Duration Rainfall Events over Guangzhou, China, in 2017

Abstract The Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN) lightning observation and rainfall data from 270 automatic weather stations (AWS) over Guangzhou in 2017 are examined. The high spatiotemporal resolution data are used to analyze the relationship between lightning activity and precipitation in 14 758 short-duration rainfall (SDR) events. About 43% of the SDR events are reported to be accompanied by lightning activity (SDRWL). The rainfall intensity of SDRWL is significantly higher than that of SDR events with no lightning (SDRNL). Lightning activity is more likely to occur in SDR events with higher rainfall rates. A power-law relationship is found between lightning flash rate and rainfall rate, with a max correlation coefficient of 0.44. In about 55% of SDRWL, lightning flashes occur later than precipitation, and the opposite is found in about 35% of SDRWL. When lightning is delayed for 5–10 min, the lagged correlation coefficient between lightning and precipitation is the largest. The results also show that the lightning flash rate peak mostly occurs from −10 to 20 min after the rainfall rate peak, and this time lag is common in SDRWL with all intensities. The starting time of lightning is related to the rainfall intensity. In heavy SDRWL, lightning activity usually occurs from −10 to 20 min after the beginning of precipitation, while in weak SDRWL, the above time window expands to ±1 h. These results indicate that the quantity and time relationship between lightning and precipitation are more solid in heavy SDR events.

On the Local Rain-Rate Extreme Associated with a Mesovortex over South China: Observational Structures, Characteristics, and Evolution

Abstract Extreme short-term hourly rainfall accumulations are shown to be commonly attendant with rotation-featured mesovortices. This study aims to document the detailed aspects of mesovortex-related extreme rain rates in a record-breaking event that occurred over South China on 7 May 2017 through high-resolution observations, and to reveal how the mesoscale storm contributes to the extreme rain rates, with special attention given to the minute rain-rate enhancement episode (MREE). The event accumulation possesses highly local distribution, with a spatial rainfall core. Extreme rain rates are dictated by a meso-γ-scale storm, and it is found that the observed rain rate is well correlated to storm-related maximum reflectivity in the lowest 2 km above ground level (AGL) as well as its reflectivity centroid (i.e., reflectivity factor exceeding 50 dBZ) depth. The cross section reveals that the storm structure evolves progressively into a single centroid, which subsequently descends to the near surface, resulting in the rain-rate peak (4.8 mm min−1). Extremely weak environmental mean flow interacts with the near-opposite storm propagation that determines the slow storm movement, prolonging local rainfall. Rainfall-induced cold outflow surges ahead unevenly, leading to an inhomogeneous mesoscale outflow boundary (IMOB) at low levels. A mesovortex subsequently develops along the IMOB in the lowest ∼5.5 km AGL, with a horizontal radius of 1.5–3 km. A mesoscale low-level jet observed over the upstream of the storm increases the low-level shear despite short duration, which provide potential dynamics for the storm and mesovortex development. These results help us better understand the generation of extreme rain rates in small spatiotemporal scale. Significance Statement Despite many extreme short-duration rainfall events linking to low-level rotation phenomenon, we are still exploring how these rotations develop within extreme-rainfall-producing storms. While past studies have found that these low-level rotations within such storms are conducive to enhancing rainfall, rotation characteristics are less understood. In this study, we examine how the rotations develop during an episode of observed-rainfall rise. The results reveal that the cold airflows resulted from the storm-inducing rainfall impinge unevenly on warm moist southerly wind, leading to such low-level rotation. The rainfall observed per minute is found to associate well with low-level rotation that develops upward. These results further motivate exploration of extreme short-duration rainfall and storm-related rotation.

Minimum Rainfall Inter-Event Time to Separate Rainfall Events in a Low Latitude Semi-Arid Environment

Water scarcity in dry tropical regions is expected to intensify due to climate change. Characterization of rainfall events is needed for a better assessment of the associated hydrological processes, and the proposition of adaptation strategies. There is still no consensus on the most appropriate method to separate rainfall events from a continuous database, although the minimum inter-event time (MIET) is a commonly used criterion. Semi-arid regions of low latitudes hold a distinct rainfall pattern compared to their equivalent at higher latitudes; these seasonally dry tropical forests experience strong spatial–temporal variability with intense short-duration rainfall events, which, in association with high energy surplus and potential evaporation, leads to an atmospheric water deficit. In this study, we identified the most adequate MIET based on rainfall data continuously measured at 5-min intervals over the last decade (2009–2020) in the semi-arid northeast of Brazil. The rainfall events were grouped according to different MIETs: 15 min, 1 h, 2 h, 3 h, 6 h, 12 h, and 24 h to determine rainfall depth, duration and intensity at intervals of 5, 30, and 60 min, time between events, and respective temporal distribution, with and without single tip events. Including single tip events in the dataset affected the number of rainfall events and respective characteristics up to a MIET of 3 h. A MIET of 6 h is the most appropriate to characterize the rainfall distribution in this tropical semi-arid region. Three classes were defined based on rainfall depth, duration, and intensity: I-small events (77% below 40 mm and 32 mm/h), II-high intensity events (3% between 36 and 76 mm/h), III-longer events of higher depth (20%). This study is useful for understanding how the MIET relates to other ecohydrological processes and provides more precise information on the rainfall characteristics at the event scale.

The Brettenham storm of 25 July 2021

The <scp>Brettenham</scp> storm of 25 <scp>July</scp> 2021

Optimizing the soil conservation service curve number model by accounting for rainfall characteristics: a case study of surface water sources in Beijing.

The upper catchment of the Miyun reservoir is an important drinking water source in Beijing. In recent years, researchers have used the soil conservation service curve number (SCS-CN) model to calculate surface runoff for the district. Although the runoff forecasting accuracy was unsatisfactory, the lack of understanding of rainfall processes and their influence on runoff may explain the observed deviations. Our study sought to optimize and assess the SCS-CN model simulation accuracy for the district by proposing an SCS-CN calculation method for each runoff event (CNt) based on observation data for 253 rainfall and runoff events from 7 plots in the Miyun Shixia watershed. This study elucidated a significant positive correlation between the ratio of CNt and the average SCS-CN (CN1), as well as the ratio of the maximum X-minute rainfall amount (PX) to the total rainfall amount for each rainfall event (P). Furthermore, a calculation method involving power function equations between CNt/CN1 and PX/P was proposed for CNt. When X = 5min and the initial abstraction ratio (λ) = 0.01, the simulation performance of the optimized model was the highest, with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 0.791, which was significantly higher than that of the non-optimized SCS-CN model. The simulation performance for bare and cultivated land was higher than that of other land uses, with Ef values of 0.831 and 0.828, respectively. Future research should focus on improving the prediction accuracy of runoff events resulting from high-intensity and short-duration rainfall events.

Regional sub-hourly extreme rainfall estimates in Sicily under a scale invariance framework

Design of urban drainage systems or flood risk assessment in small catchments often requires knowledge of very short-duration rainfall events (less than 1 h). Unfortunately, data for these events are often unavailable or too scarce for a reliable statistical inference. However, regularities in the temporal pattern exhibited by storm records, known as scaling properties of rainfall, could help in characterizing extreme storms at partially gauged sites better than the application of traditional statistical techniques. In this work, a scaling approach for estimating the distribution of sub-hourly extreme rainfall in Sicily (Italy) is presented based on data from high-resolution rain gauges with a short functioning period and from low-resolution rain gauges with longer samples. First, simple scaling assumption was tested for annual maxima rainfall (AMR) data from 10 min to 24 h duration, revealing that the simple scaling regime holds from 20 to 60 min for most of the stations. Then, scaling homogeneous regions were classified based on the values of the scaling exponent. In each region, this parameter was regionalized through power-law relationships with the median of 1 h AMR data. After that, regional Depth Duration Frequency (DDF) curves were developed by combining the scale-invariant framework with the generalized extreme value (GEV) probability distribution and used to estimate T-year sub-hourly extreme rainfalls at sites where only rainfall data for longer durations (≥ 1 h) were available. The regional GEV simple scaling model was validated against sub-hourly historical observations at ten rain gauges, generally yielding, in relation to the scaling exponent value, to similar or better sub-hourly estimates than empirical approach.

Individual Rainfall Change Based on Observed Hourly Precipitation Records on the Chinese Loess Plateau from 1983 to 2012

The magnitude and spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation are the main drivers of hydrologic and agricultural processes in soil moisture, runoff generation, soil erosion, vegetation growth and agriculture activities on the Loess Plateau (LP). This study detects the spatiotemporal variations of individual rainfall events during a rainy season (RS) from May to September based on the hourly precipitation data measured at 87 stations on the LP from 1983 to 2012. The incidence and contribution rates were calculated for all classes of rainfall duration and intensity to identify the dominant contribution to the rainfall amount and frequency variations. The trend rates of regional mean annual total rainfall amount (ATR) and annual mean rainfall intensity (ARI) were 0.43 mm/year and 0.002 mm/h/year in the RS for 1983–2012, respectively. However, the regional mean annual total rainfall frequency (ARF) and rainfall events (ATE) were −0.27 h/year and −0.11 times/year, respectively. In terms of spatial patterns, an increase in ATR appeared in most areas except for the southwest, while the ARI increased throughout the study region, with particularly higher values in the northwest and southeast. Areas of decreasing ARF occurred mainly in the northwest and central south of the LP, while ATE was found in most areas except for the northeast. Short-duration (≤6 h) and light rainfall events occurred mostly on the LP, accounting for 69.89% and 72.48% of total rainfall events, respectively. Long-duration (≥7 h) and moderate rainfall events contributed to the total rainfall amount by 70.64% and 66.73% of the total rainfall amount, respectively. Rainfall frequency contributed the most to the variations of rainfall amount for light and moderate rainfall events, while rainfall intensity played an important role in heavy rainfall and rainstorms. The variation in rainfall frequency for moderate rainfall, heavy rainfall, and rainstorms is mainly affected by rainfall duration, while rainfall event was identified as a critical factor for light rainfall. The characteristics in rainfall variations on the Loess Plateau revealed in this study can provide useful information for sustainable water resources management and plans.

Evidence of a continent-wide shift of episodic rainfall in Australia

Extreme daily rainfall has intensified and become more frequent globally. However, in Australia, long-term changes in the characteristics of extreme rainfall are not well understood. Commonly used indices that examine the characteristics of rainfall rarely show statistically significant long-term historical changes in mean and extreme rainfall events. Here we use a rainfall event-based approach to study observed changes in intensity and frequency of rainfall events in Australia. This approach defines rain events as n consecutive days of rain to account for varying event duration. The intensity of a rainfall event is defined as the average of the daily accumulation of rainfall over the event duration. We find that short-duration rainfall events (1–2 day) have become more frequent and have intensified in large parts of Australia since the beginning of the 20th century. The frequency of longer duration rainfall events (3–4 day and 5–6 day) show substantial and statistically significant reductions in the south of Australia and increases in some parts of northern Australia. The frequency of rainfall events lasting >6 days has increased in the north and decreased in the south. The robust increase in short-duration episodic rainfall events across Australia and decrease in the frequency of extended episodic events imply rainfall has become more sporadic in Australia. Changes in rainfall intensities are less consistent compared to changes in frequency across the continent. We find an increase in intensity in the 1–2 and 3–4 day events, but the trends in the intensity of those events lasting >4 days are mostly not significant. Overall, changes in the characteristics of rainfall events of duration n days provide more spatially coherent results than those presented previously.

Debris flooding magnitude estimation based on relation between dendrogeomorphological and meteorological records

Debris floods are mass movement events which are usually triggered by intense short duration rainfall events. They often occur on alluvial fans in an alpine environment. Due to their sever geohazard potential they pose a serious threat to infrastructure and human life. To minimize their threat understanding of their past magnitude occurrence is crucial. Dendrogeomorphology has proven to be a highly useful method in studies of past slope mass movements. However, establishing magnitudes of past events has so far been based on indirect indicators, such as: spatial distribution of affected trees, characteristics of tree injures and sedimentological records. In this study we present a method that directly estimates the magnitudes of past debris flood events on an alluvial fan using dendrogeomorphological and meteorological data sets. The studied dendrogeomorphological data set is based on tree-ring series from 105 sampled trees (Picea abies, Abies alba and Larix decidua) growing on an active alluvial fan in a typical alpine environment of the Julian Alps in NW Slovenia. Based on sudden growth suppression thirteen debris flood events since 1903 were dated. Meteorological data from a nearby meteorological station was used to determine the exact triggering meteorological event for ten events. Comparing the It index of affected trees and calculated return period of an individual triggering meteorological event established the magnitude of debris flooding. We showed that more trees are affected at high return period/intensity of the triggering meteorological event and therefore higher magnitudes of debris floods. This research presents the first combined use of dendrogeomorphological and meteorological data sets for magnitude estimation of historic debris flood events which could be successfully applied in similar environments.

Observation of Short Duration Rainfall in Yogyakarta

On the observation of hourly rainfall data in Java Island, for the modelling watershed purpose, it can be seen that short duration rainfall events are the most dominant. The percentage of short duration rainfall event is almost 70% of the observation data. By using the high resolution of hourly rainfall data with 5 minutes’ intervals, it can be easily to describe the rainfall distribution patterns that occur. This research observed high resolution of hourly rainfall data in hilly and mountainous at Mount Merapi area in Yogyakarta. It purposed to mitigation effort due to the rainfall events that often falls with short duration and high intensity.

Effects of mosaic-pattern shrub patches on runoff and sediment yield in a wind-water erosion crisscross region

Shrub patch fragmentation makes a substantial contribution to soil erosion in sandy regions. This study aimed to analyze the effects of mosaic-pattern shrub patch size on runoff and sedimentation in a wind-water erosion crisscross region. The influence of shrub patch size on runoff and sedimentation, and on several soil physical and vegetation factors was evaluated in a sandy Chinese landscape. Based upon the canopy diameter of Artemisia ordosica, a xerophytic shrub, three different patch sizes were set as the treatments, such as small (Ø < 60 cm), medium (60 < Ø < 160 cm) and large (Ø > 160 cm) shrub patches. Bare land served as control conditions. Three runoff plots were established for each shrub size, and runoff (Q) and sediment (SY) yields were monitored under natural rainfall conditions. The results indicated that rainfall distribution was uneven in the study area. Low-intensity (0–5 mm/h) and short-duration (0–5 h) rainfall events accounted for 82.6% and 71.7% of all events, respectively, during the 6-month test period, from May to October 2016. Linear regression indicated that Q and SY increased with increasing rainfall depth at the slope scale. The impact of rainfall erosion on bare land was the greatest. Compared with control plots, Q and SY reduction owing to the small, medium, and large shrub patches was 19.7% and 49.3%, 31.4% and 62.4%, and 35.9% and 94.9%, respectively. These results confirmed the different effects of shrub patches of different sizes on soil quality, runoff and sediment reduction. Besides, this study suggested that shrub patches could modify soil microhabitats on sandy soils, reducing the soil erosion rates and as well as favoring vegetation regeneration.

A lightning-based nowcast-warning approach for short-duration rainfall events: Development and testing over Beijing during the warm seasons of 2006–2007

Nowcasting short-duration (i.e., <6 h) rainfall (SDR) events is examined using total [i.e., cloud-to-ground (CG) and intra-cloud (IC)] lightning observations over the Beijing Metropolitan Region (BMR) during the warm seasons of 2006–2007. A total of 928 moderate and 554 intense SDR events, i.e., with the respective hourly rainfall rates (HRR) of 10–20 and ≥20 mm h−1, are utilized to estimate sharp-increasing rates in rainfall and lightning flash, termed as rainfall and lightning jumps, respectively. By optimizing the parameters in a lightning jump and a rainfall jump algorithm, their different jump intensity grades are verified for the above two categories of SDR events. Then, their corresponding graded nowcast-warning models are developed for the moderate and intense SDR events, respectively, with a low-grade warning for hitting more SDR events and a high-grade warning for reducing false alarms. Any issued warning in the nowcast-warning models is designed to last for 2 h after the occurrence of a lightning jump. It is demonstrated that the low-grade warnings can have the probability of detection (POD) of 67.8% (87.0%) and the high-grade warnings have the false alarms ratio (FAR) of 27.0% (22.2%) for the moderate (intense) SDR events, with an averaged lead time of 36.7 (52.0) min. The nowcast-warning models are further validated using three typical heavy-rain-producing storms that are independent from those used to develop the models. Results show that the nowcast-warning models can provide encouraging early warnings for the associated SDR events from the regional to meso-γ scales, indicating that they have a great potential in being applied to the other regions where high-resolution total lightning observations are available.

Simulating sub-daily Intensity-Frequency-Duration curves in Australia using a dynamical high-resolution regional climate model

Climate change has the potential to significantly alter the characteristics of high-intensity, short-duration rainfall events, potentially leading to more severe and more frequent flash floods. Research has shown that future changes to such events could far exceed expectations based on temperature scaling and basic physical principles alone, but that computationally expensive convection-permitting models are required to accurately simulate sub-daily extreme rainfall events. It is therefore crucial to be able to model future changes to sub-daily duration extreme rainfall events as cost effectively as possible, especially in Australia where such information is scarce. In this study, we seek to determine what the shortest duration of extreme rainfall is that can be simulated by a less computationally expensive convection-parametrizing Regional Climate Model (RCM). We examine the ability of the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM), a ∼10km high-resolution convection-parametrizing RCM, to reproduce sub-daily Intensity-Frequency-Duration (IFD) curves corresponding to two long-term observational stations in the Australian island state of Tasmania, and examine the future model projections. We find that CCAM simulates observed extreme rainfall statistics well for 3-h durations and longer, challenging the current understanding that convection-permitting models are needed to accurately model sub-daily extreme rainfall events. Further, future projections from CCAM for the end of this Century show that extreme sub-daily rainfall intensities could increase by more than 15% per °C, far exceeding the 7% scaling estimate predicted by the Clausius-Clapeyron vapour pressure relationship and the 5% scaling estimate recommended by the Australian Rainfall and Runoff guide.

The relationship of lightning activity and short-duration rainfall events during warm seasons over the Beijing metropolitan region

The relationship between lightning activity and rainfall associated with 2925 short-duration rainfall (SDR) events over the Beijing metropolitan region (BMR) is examined during the warm seasons of 2006–2007, using the cloud-to-ground (CG) and intracloud (IC) lightning data from Surveillance et Alerte Foudre par Interférometrie Radioélectrique (SAFIR)-3000 and 5-min rainfall data from automatic weather stations (AWSs). An optimal radius of 10km around selected AWSs is used to determine the lightning-rainfall relationship. The lightning-rainfall correlations vary significantly, depending upon the intensity of SDR events. That is, correlation coefficient (R~0.7) for the short-duration heavy rainfall (SDHR, i.e.,≥20mmh−1) events is found higher than that (R~0.4) for the weak SDR (i.e., 5–10mmh−1) events, and lower percentage of the SDHR events (< 10%) than the weak SDR events (40–50%) are observed with few flashes. Significant time-lagged correlations between lightning and rainfall are also found. About 80% of the SDR events could reach their highest correlation coefficients when the associated lightning flashes shift at time lags of <25min before and after rainfall begins. Those events with lightning preceding rainfall account for 50–60% of the total SDR events. Better lightning-rainfall correlations can be attained when time lags are incorporated, with the use of total (CG and IC) lightning data. These results appear to have important implications for improving the nowcast of SDHR events.