Shifts In Demand Research Articles

Climate Change Perspective in Pakistan

The study aims to assess historical climate variations and forecast future changes within various agro-climatic regions of Pakistan over the next half-century, employing both Regional and Global Climate Models. The primary objective is to evaluate the vulnerabilities specific to different regions and propose suitable coping mechanisms and adaptation strategies. An examination of historical climate data underscores the undeniable reality that climate change is an ongoing process in Pakistan. The rate and nature of these changes are expected to fluctuate across time and geographical regions, exerting profound effects on various aspects of society. In parallel with endeavors to curtail greenhouse gas emissions, preparing for and adapting to the consequences of a shifting climate is imperative. Comprehending the implications of climate change for Pakistan constitutes a vital initial step in this endeavor. Should future climate changes materialize to the extent projected by the majority of global climate models, it is anticipated that Pakistan's water resources will undergo substantial alterations. This, in turn, will have ripple effects on food production, public health, industrial processes, transportation systems, and the long-term sustainability of ecosystems. Particularly, regions in the southern part of the country, already grappling with resource stress, are poised to face exacerbated challenges due to supply or demand shifts driven by climate change. Historical records and projections from General Circulation Models and Regional Climate Models converge on the prediction that extreme climatic events, such as droughts and floods, will intensify in frequency and magnitude across different parts of Pakistan. These extreme events are expected to exert substantial pressure on existing infrastructure and institutional capacities, potentially precipitating significant economic, social, and environmental repercussions. Consequently, it is imperative to place specific emphasis on understanding, mitigating, and adapting to these extreme climatic events.

Impact of COVID-19 on Dairy Herd Profitability: A Review at the Global Level

The occurrence of several pandemics in recent decades has posed a significant threat to human and animal health. The COVID-19 pandemic, which rapidly spread to 187 countries, has caused significant economic disruption in various industries, including the dairy industry. The dairy industry has been affected by supply chain disruptions, consumer behavior changes, and global demand shifts due to the pandemic. The present review aims to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, mainly from the dairy farm level, and propose strategies for mitigating the effects of future global crisis events. The dairy industry, a major source of income for many dairy herds, was significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The consumption patterns of milk and dairy products underwent substantial alterations, leading to decreased profitability of dairy farms due to disruptions in the supply chain, increased transportation costs resulting from transportation restrictions, and a shift in consumer purchasing behavior. These factors collectively resulted in reduced revenue from selling milk and dairy products. Heifer replacement considerations also impacted the economic viability of dairy farms. The pandemic caused a shortage of meat (beef, pork, poultry) and a surplus of milk. In addition to the abovementioned factors, the COVID-19 pandemic also impacted other economic indicators, such as gross returns from the sale of culled dairy animals and dairy feed costs. These impacts further amplified the financial challenges faced by the dairy industry and dairy farmers, underscoring the need for robust mitigation strategies and resilient policies to minimize the economic impact of pandemics and other crises. In conclusion, the COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly impacted the dairy industry, affecting supply chains and international commerce. Governments are encouraged to implement measures to mitigate the impact of future pandemics on the dairy sector. The authors of this review propose several recommendations for dairy farmers and veterinarians to increase their resilience in the face of future outbreaks. These recommendations include sourcing feed from reliable local farms, acquiring internet connectivity equipment to facilitate communication during travel restrictions, maintaining a sufficient supply of personal protective equipment, incorporating mechanization in farm operations, stockpiling essential veterinary medications and vaccines, and training technicians to perform veterinary procedures in emergencies when veterinary services are unavailable.

Wars, cartels and COVID-19: regime switching in commodity prices

ABSTRACT Commodity prices are extremely volatile, and volatility itself fluctuates over time. Using data from 1959 to 2022, we estimate a 3-state Markov-switching model to identify expansions and contractions in oil and copper price volatility. We found a transition from a low to a medium variance regime for the oil price, in 1979, reflecting changes in the oil market structure. In addition, we identify infrequent and short-lived episodes of unusually high oil price volatility. For copper, there is no transition across regimes, and episodes of high volatility are not synchronized with the periods of high volatility in oil prices. We found that oil prices are much more volatile than copper prices in all states. Oil prices react more strongly to market cartelization, war episodes, and global demand shifts, like the 2008 Great Recession and the COVID-19.

Force of nature

In one way or another, tourism often sits at the heart of place branding. Transformations of tourism induced by the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic have led to shifts in tourist demand and target markets, thus provoking changes in tourist place branding. In this article, I explore these changes from a sociolinguistic point of view by examining the ways in which a rural tourist destination in Alsace (France) mobilises language and discourse to adapt its tourist place branding strategy in response to rising demand for nature tourism. First, using data gathered during ethnographic fieldwork undertaken following the easing of lockdown restrictions, I show how ‘nature’ is positioned as a central trope in defining the essential characteristics of the destination, its population, and the activities that can be undertaken there. Second, I look at how this positioning contributes to the elaboration of a coherent destination brand whilst also shaping tourist experiences and thus tourist, geographical, and spatial imaginaries. Finally, I explore the dynamics of commodification that underpin this foregrounding of nature in the (re)framing of people and place.

Perubahan Produksi dan Perdagangan Negara-negara Produsen Lada Terbesar di Dunia dan Implikasinya bagi Indonesia

The production and trade of agricultural products in global markets will undergo changes due to shifts in demand and production patterns. Although demand for pepper is likely to remain strong, pepper production is prone to fluctuations due to various factors, particularly natural ones. This study aims to predict future changes in the production and trade of the world's largest pepper-producing countries and identify macro-level improvements needed to enhance the pepper production and trade system in Indonesia. Using time-series analysis (i.e., double exponential smoothing) with FAOSTAT data from 1961-2020, this study predicts that the competitive landscape among pepper-producing countries is likely to change over the next 15 years. Some producing countries may overtake others in terms of pepper production and trade. Consequently, Indonesia needs to respond to these changes by implementing various sectoral-level improvements, such as investing in sustainable development, improving infrastructure, and addressing political factors, in addition to improving farmer-level practices.

The causes of and responses to today’s inflation

AbstractOver the last couple years, the world has experienced the highest levels of inflation in more than four decades. This paper provides a framework for analyzing the causes and the appropriate responses. We show that it is not caused by an excess of aggregate demand, and in particular, not caused by any excess consumption arising from excessive pandemic spending, but by supply-side shocks, largely induced by the pandemic (e.g., chips), and also by the war in Ukraine, combined with sectoral demand shifts. We analyze the role played by market power and the lack of resilience. Increases in interest rates, beyond normalizing levels, will do little to address the underlying problems and may exacerbate them, impeding effective responses to supply shortages. The paper describes alternative fiscal and other measures that, while addressing current inflation, have further long-term welfare benefits.

Strategies and Business Models used by Short-Chain Food Enterprises Marketing in Oslo (Norway) and Bristol (UK)

Abstract Short food supply chains (SFSCs) are associated with a range of contested, place-based attributes which contrast with the characteristics of complex, global and corporate chains. This article avoids such oppositional binaries by focusing on SFSCs serving two European cities, namely Oslo (Norway) and Bristol (UK). It reviews cities as a particular kind of market within which to secure custom, by presenting qualitative data from a study of SFSCs in these two cities to examine marketing barriers and opportunities encountered. Distinctive urban contexts, such as the density of consumers and presence of food-related infrastructures, can influence the marketing strategies and sales channels chosen by food enterprises. Difficulties are faced by both food producers and the sales channels through which they come to market, especially in relation to financial viability, price competition and efficiency. Our analysis, as well as highlighting connections and divergences between Oslo and Bristol, emphasises the role of these cities in providing diverse food market niches. Alongside global chains, functioning SFSCs help to reflect the history of Oslo and Bristol as trading cities with diverse populations and reveal enterprise adaptability and innovation as market demand shifts.

A Smart-Contract-Aided Plastic Credit Scheme

Researchers estimate that more than 8.3 billion tonnes of plastic have been produced since the early 1950s; however, only 9% of all plastic waste ever produced has been recycled. In this article, we propose a plastic credit driven system consisting of a recyclability index (RI) and plastic credit to impel plastic recycling and increase the quality of recyclable plastics through a market self-regulation mechanism. The RI is designed to evaluate the recyclability value of different plastic products based on their material compositions. The plastic credit, defined by the quantitative relation between the RI and product information, can be issued or traded by system stakeholders. Instead of setting rigid industry standards to regulate plastic quality, we construct a governance community among industry participants using blockchain-enabled smart contracts to self-regulate and monitor plastic production and trading. The proposed system is constructed on a consortium blockchain and a public blockchain to negotiate the RI, issue credits, and trade credits using smart contracts. Through the overall system performance analysis, the experimental results demonstrate that the designed plastic credit system can promote a demand shift toward plastic products with higher plastic recyclability and achieve a lightweight operation for resource requirements and system maintenance.

Mathematical Model and Simulation for Improving Brake, Bump and Roll Steers in Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV)

Due to recent infrastructural developments and emerging competitive automotive market in India, there is seen a huge shift in customer demand and vehicle drivability pattern for small commercial vehicles. Various factors contributing to driver’s fatigue include driver negligence, inappropriate driving habits and vehicle inherent design error due to which a driver is forced to make frequent steering wheel corrections so as to make the vehicle run in a straight line. Thus, optimization of steering, suspension and front axle geometry becomes important for improving the overall vehicle drivability and reducing the driver fatigue. Mentioned herewith are the major kinematic characteristics in a vehicle which plays vital role for ensuring vehicle improved drivability – Brake steer, Bump steer, Roll steer and Ackerman Geometry. As on today, the above analysis for deriving optimized linkages hard points for steering, suspension and front axle system are done in customized Multi body dynamics software’s like ADAMS/Trucksim. Although the derived hard points in such MBD software’s are precise yet there are several drawbacks in such approach like increase in overall project time plan, mainly due to the vehicle packaging issues for the proposed hard points and also these software customized license and AMC are quite high which increases the overall operating cost of a project. In this paper, an approach has been developed so as to derive these linkages hard points through mathematical calculation and kinematic simulation model in product design Catia platform itself. This helps the designer to derive the optimized hard points of linkages for “n” number of design iterations at the concept stage itself. Thus, this design methodology saves not only on the project design cost but also it reduces the overall product design lifecycle and gives the respective designer to choose the optimum hard point based upon the vehicle packaging feasibility Brake steer, Bump steer, Roll steer, Catia 2D layout, Camber, TCD, Ackermann error.
 

Eliciting mobility preferences of Indians for E-rickshaws: Evidence from Gurugram

The Government of India has approved e-rickshaws in 2015 to make paratransit services more environmentally friendly. This approval has resulted in a substantial influx of e-rickshaws across India, but little is known about the demand side of e-rickshaws. By collecting stated preferences and revealed travel patterns of 800 respondents from the city of Gurugram, we quantify the individuals’ willingness to shift to e-rickshaws from their current travel mode and their willingness to pay to use e-rickshaws for their first-mile travel. Our results indicate that e-rickshaws are perceived as a cheaper travel mode, perhaps the predominant factor driving the shift of a large demand to e-rickshaws. Moreover, e-rickshaws are likely to take away market share from other paratransit modes and walking instead of personalized travel modes. Thus, the net congestion and emission impact of e-rickshaws need to be evaluated in deciding the number of e-rickshaws allowed to operate in a city.

Macroeconomic effects of demand and supply shocks in the global oil price on the Vietnamese economy

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of several structural shocks in oil prices on the Vietnamese economy and answer three key research questions: Is there a relationship between oil price shocks and macroeconomic indicators in Vietnam? How do different types of oil price impulses affect Vietnamese inflation and economic performance? To what extent do structural shocks in oil prices explain variations in Vietnam’s macroeconomic indicators?Design/methodology/approachLower triangular Cholesky decomposition is performed on a short-term impact matrix in a two-block structural vector autoregressive model. The data set is defined monthly, from January 2000 to December 2021. The contributions of structural shocks in oil prices to the domestic variances are analysed using variance decomposition methods. In this study, both forecast error variance decomposition and historical decomposition are used.FindingsThe consequences of oil price fluctuations on Vietnamese output and inflation depend on different sources of oil price shocks. In comparison, oil supply shocks have an insignificant effect on both domestic industrial output and consumer price index inflation; however, positive shocks in aggregate and precautionary oil demands increase these domestic indicators substantially and sustainably. An analysis of variance decompositions reveals that supply-side oil shocks have very limited explanatory power for variations in domestic variables. Nevertheless, the contributions of unanticipated demand-side booms to domestic variations in the past and projected forecasts are considerable.Research limitations/implicationsThe findings from this research uncover potential risks for Vietnam’s economic prospects if the consequences of oil price shocks are not managed effectively.Originality/valueGiven the lack of economic sensitivity to supply-side oil shocks and the strong response to shifts in oil demands, greater pressure on the domestic economy is likely when Vietnam increases its dependence on oil imports.

Exploring Middle School Teachers’ Job Demands and Job Resources during COVID-19

Abstract Introduction: The study aimed to explore teachers’ general working conditions, job demands and resources, and teachers’ general well-being in four middle schools in the Southeastern U.S during COVID-19. Methods: The methodology for this study was qualitative. The sampling strategy was purposeful and comprised 15 educators. The data were collected utilizing two semi-structured interviews and documentation. The data analysis consisted of thematic analysis. Results: The study’s results revealed seven themes that emerged from the data: a) Changes in working conditions; b) teachers’ well-being and working conditions; c) perceived teachers’ new job demands and additional workload; d) emotionally draining job demands; e) perceived available job resources; f) perceived need for job resources; and g) strategies teachers used to cope with stress. Discussion: The lessons learned during the pandemic in these four organizations may assist leaders in designing new policies and avoid further deterioration of teachers’ well-being. Limitations: Access to the organization’s documentation and the sample size were limitations. Conclusions: The shift in job demands and job resources during the pandemic placed teachers at risk of emotional exhaustion and burnout.

Working from home and corporate real estate

We examine how corporate real estate market participants adjust to the take-off of teleworking. We develop an index for the exposure of counties to teleworking in France by combining teleworking capacity with incentives and frictions to its deployment. We find that the valuation of offices declined more in areas more exposed to telecommuting, a pattern that we do not observe for retail assets. In addition, we show that telecommuting increases vacancy, decreases construction, while transaction volumes are not affected. It implies that the drop in price is due to a shift in demand for space. In addition, our result suggests that market participants are expecting the shift to teleworking to durably affect the demand for office space.

Stalled Racial Progress and Japanese Trade in the 1970s and 1980s

Abstract We assess the impact of a rapid rise in Japanese import competition on the growth in racial earnings and employment gaps during the 1970s and 80s. Using commuting zone level variation in exposure, we find Japanese competition led to a decrease in manufacturing employment and labour force participation for blacks. This was driven by a shift in demand for skill in manufacturing. The difference in effects between the 10th percentile most and least exposed commuting zone was equivalent to 36–46% of the relative rise in black non-labour force participation, and 78–96% of the relative decline in black median male earnings.

The effect of customer and supplier concentrations on firm resilience during the COVID‐19 pandemic: Resource dependence and power balancing

AbstractThe COVID‐19 pandemic has created significant disruptions in both demand and supply. Our study makes use of such dramatic changes in demand and supply during the pandemic to examine resource dependence and power balancing/unbalancing issues in buyer–supplier relationships. Specifically, we investigate the effect of customer and supplier concentrations on firm resilience during the pandemic. Drawing on resource‐dependence theory (RDT), we theorize that shifts in demand and supply in different pandemic stages influence the effect of customer and supplier concentrations on firm resilience by altering the power dynamics between focal firms and their concentrated customers and suppliers. Central to our theorizing is that the worsening power imbalance is more detrimental. Measuring firm resilience by loss and recovery (i.e., change) in productivity, our analysis of 23,440 Chinese listed firms' quarter observations from 2019 to 2020 shows that customer concentration is negatively related to firm resilience in the disruption stage but has no effect in the restoration stage. Supplier concentration is positively related to firm resilience in the disruption stage but undermines firm resilience in the restoration stage. These findings largely confirm our theoretical propositions. We discuss the theoretical and managerial implications.

The role of artificial intelligence in supply chain analytics during the pandemic

The global supply networks have been disrupted and weak connections exposed to an extent that few people have ever seen in their lifetime due to the COVID-19 epidemic. As a result of the severity of the crisis, every country and industry is feeling the effects, and the massive shifts in demand and supply that have happened throughout the epidemic are easily distinguishable from the effects of previous crises. We looked into the adaptability of alliance management and AI-driven supply chain analytics in the context of an ever-changing external environment. We examined four hypotheses in this area using survey data from the American auto components manufacturing industry. To do the analysis, we used Smart PLS. Alliance management capabilities, mediated by AI-powered supply chain analytics capacity, have been found to increase an organization's operational and financial performance. We also discovered, with environmental dynamics as a moderating factor, that alliance management capability has a substantial impact on AI-powered supply chain analytics capabilities. Based on our findings, we have a deep appreciation for the interplay between dynamic capacities and the relational view of organization. Finally, we pointed up the limitations of our study and offered a number of directions for future investigation that might help address some of the concerns that our results raise.

ПОНЯТТЯ ТА ЗНАЧЕННЯ АМОРТИЗАЦІЙНОЇ ПОЛІТИКИ В УМОВАХ КРИЗИ

This scientific article is dedicated to examining the concept and significance of depreciation policy in the context of an economic crisis. Amidst growing economic instability and uncertainty, depreciation policy plays a pivotal role in financial management for enterprises. The heightened uncertainty in financial markets, changes in the economic environment, and challenges associated with shifts in demand and supply underscore the relevance of analyzing and refining depreciation policies. Crisis conditions often lead to changes in strategic approaches in financial management, including depreciation expense planning. A well-planned depreciation strategy can aid enterprises in more effectively allocating financial resources, reducing potential financial risks, and ensuring long-term financial stability. Furthermore, in times of crisis, it is pertinent to consider depreciation policy as a tool for optimizing financial indicators for businesses. The appropriate allocation of depreciation expenses can positively impact liquidity and solvency, equipping enterprises to address escalating financial challenges. The article explores various methods of calculating depreciation, analyzes the determination of useful lives for assets and intangible assets during a crisis, and considers different rates of depreciation expense and their impact on a company’s financial position within resource constraints. Moreover, the tax implications of choosing different depreciation strategies are discussed. The interrelation between depreciation deductions and a company’s liquidity is examined, particularly in the context of economic instability. It is noted that the choice of depreciation strategy holds significant value for optimizing a company’s financial status, especially during economic instability. Flexible depreciation planning and its adaptation to changes in market situations are essential tools. The article delves into how depreciation policy can be employed to ensure a company’s financial stability during a crisis. Innovative methods for enhancing depreciation policy in crisis conditions are outlined.

Shifts in Vegetable Supply and Demand from 2010–2019 to the 2020–2021 COVID-19 Period at the Tokyo Metropolitan Central Wholesale Market

コロナ禍期間にあった2020–2021年における野菜の需給動向を，2019年以前の過去10年間と比較しながら確認した．東京都中央卸売市場に出荷されている144品目を月ごとに分析し，1657月別品目の需要と供給，並びに価格の動向を確認した．その結果，野菜の需給動向は，月別品目によって異なり多様であることが再認識されたが，あえて全体的な傾向を指摘すれば，需要と供給が減退している月別品目が多く，その傾向が直近の変動においてより強まっている．コロナ禍との関連では，家庭内需要が多い指定野菜で需要が増加した月別品目が見られた．これに対して業務需要が多い輸入野菜と香辛つま物類で需要が減退した月別品目が多かった．季節的には春から夏にかけて需要が減退した月別品目が多かった．こうした需要の減退に比べて価格が低下した月別品目が少なかったが，これは供給が減らされたためで，出荷者の損失は大きかったと推測される．

Automating Supply Chain Contracts in the Presence of Demand Shifts and Contract Execution Lag

Automating Supply Chain Contracts in the Presence of Demand Shifts and Contract Execution Lag

Something New out of Africa: States Made Slaves, Slaves Made States

AbstractIn this article I explain a nexus between slavery and state formation in Africa, proceeding from initial demographic and institutional conditions to an external demand shift, individual state responses, and their collective systemic consequences. Historically, African rulers faced distinctive challenges: low population density prioritized control of people more than territory, and internal disintegration was often a greater threat than external conquest. A massive expansion in the demand for slaves offered African rulers increased opportunities to use external resources for “outside-in” state building. Many did so by creating highly militarized predatory slaving states. The collective consequence was heightened systemic insecurity. Variation in the timing of these developments reflected regional and historical variation in the expansion of the demand for slaves. Slaving states appeared first in West Africa, reflecting the late-seventeenth-century expansion of the trans-Atlantic slave trade, before spreading to East Africa a century later, following the parallel later increase in the Indian Ocean slave trade. This “outside-in” path to state formation both parallels and contrasts with contemporary postcolonial state formation.