Shaping Voting Research Articles

The Influence of Political Communication on Youth Voter Decisions in Klang Valley: The Role of Credibility, Informativeness, Interactiveness, and Satire

In the digital age, the factors shaping young voters’ decisions are becoming increasingly complex. This study explores the impact of political credibility, political informativeness, political interactiveness, and political satire on the voting decisions of youth in Klang Valley, Malaysia. Utilizing a quantitative approach with a sample of 330 young voters, this research reveals that all four factors positively influence voter decisions, though their effects vary. Political credibility and political informativeness are significant, albeit with modest effects, highlighting their essential roles in shaping voter trust and decision-making. More pronounced impacts are observed with political interactiveness and political satire, which engage voters more dynamically and contribute to more pronounced shifts in voting behavior. These findings underscore the importance of integrating trust, information quality, engagement, and humor into political campaigns. The study provides strategic insights for enhancing political communication, offering a comprehensive understanding of how these key elements influence youth voting behavior in Malaysia and beyond.

An evaluation of the efficiency of Turkic cooperation in the United Nations General Assembly

This study investigates the dynamics of voting cohesion in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) by conducting a comparative analysis of the European Union (EU), the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), and the Organization of Turkic States (OTS). The research aims to assess the external voting cohesion of OTS member states in relation to the EU and CIS, utilizing the benchmark of collective voting in the UNGA as an indicator. The historical context underscores the significance of regional organizations in fostering collaboration among member countries, particularly in the realms of economics, security, and socioeconomic growth. The focus of this study on the OTS arises from the unique geopolitical and historical circumstances of Turkic-speaking nations dispersed globally. The methodology employs a comprehensive analysis of UNGA roll-call votes, utilizing data spanning from 1992 to 2019. The study employs the voting cohesion measurement proposed by Hosli et al. (2010), incorporating a scoring system to quantify cohesion. Results indicate that, compared to the CIS, the OTS demonstrates slightly higher voting cohesion, with a discernible increasing trend over the years. The EU, exhibiting the highest level of cohesion, provides a reference point for potential advancements in the OTS's institutional structures and collaborative efforts. The findings suggest that the OTS has the potential to achieve EU-level cohesion with continued improvements in institutional frameworks and enhanced cooperation among member states. In conclusion, this study contributes to the understanding of international cooperation dynamics, emphasizing the evolving role of regional organizations in shaping voting behaviour at the global stage. The findings underscore the potential for increased cohesion within the OTS, positioning it as a significant player in international diplomacy.

Marginalization by Proxy: Voter Evaluations at the Intersection of Candidate Identity and Community Ties

AbstractWe apply an intersectional framework to explore how connections to marginalized communities interact with candidate demographics to shape vote choice in U.S. politics. In an original experiment manipulating candidates’ race, gender, sexuality, and endorsements, we show that endorsements by organizations advocating for marginalized communities shape voter evaluations to the same, if not greater, degree as candidate demographics. Moreover, the effects are particularly pronounced for candidates receiving an endorsement from an LGBT advocacy organization. Attitudes toward marginalized communities are mapped onto candidates with ties to those communities, whether the candidate is a member or not; we call this process associational affect. Identity has a complex role in shaping vote choice, and, absent an investigation of power and interlocking social hierarchies, it alone is insufficient to explain vote choice.

“They own our country!” voter reaction to anti-China rhetoric: The case of the presidential election in Brazil in 2018

How do voters react to a presidential candidate who warns against investments from a foreign country? This study examines voter reactions to a presidential candidate warning against foreign Chinese investments, using the Brazilian 2018 campaign as a case study. Far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro repeatedly criticised Chinese acquisitions of national assets, particularly in natural resource extraction. By analysing geographically referenced data on Chinese investments and electoral data, I find that Bolsonaro's electoral success increased with higher levels of Chinese acquisitions, especially those related to natural resources. Post-election surveys also confirm a link between voting for Bolsonaro and rejecting Chinese investment. These findings highlight the connection between right-wing voters' fears of globalisation and the rise of far-right candidates. The study contributes to understanding the role of ideology and nationalism in shaping voter attitudes towards foreign investment during a presidential campaign.

The reverberations of British Brexit politics abroad

How do foreign political events shape voters’ evaluation of policies whose outcomes are hard to observe? We argue that policy-specific political processes abroad provide information about the policy's feasibility and desirability that allows voters to update their preferences. We analyze how key events in British Brexit politics affected attitudes towards the European Union in other European countries. The results of ‘unexpected events during survey' designs, a natural experiment, and a panel analysis show that events highlighting the difficulties of the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union led to a higher support of European integration in remaining member states, whereas an event highlighting the opportunities of Brexit resulted in more Eurosceptic attitudes. The article demonstrates that foreign events can influence voters’ policy attitudes in other countries, highlighting the systemic consequences of events like Brexit.

The impact of local identities on voting behaviour: a Scouse case study

The political salience of local identities has received limited academic attention in the British political science literature. This paper is a step towards addressing this, through a case study of the Scouse identity. The Scouse identity is primarily found in the English city of Liverpool, Merseyside and its environs. Using original survey data of electors from across Merseyside, alongside the British Election Study, this paper explores the political salience and consequences of the Scouse identity and places it in the comparative context of sub-state national identities across Great Britain, namely Englishness, Scottishness, and Welshness. I find that holding a Scouse identity leads to higher levels of Labour support and lower levels of Conservative and Green support, that the political consequences of the Scouse identity vary across Merseyside, and that local identities can and do exist alongside sub-state national identities, challenging the myth of ‘Scouse not English’. Put simply, local identities can and do matter when it comes to shaping voting behaviour.

Deliberative panels as a source of public knowledge: A large-sample test of the Citizens' Initiative Review.

Evolving US media and political systems, coupled with escalating misinformation campaigns, have left the public divided over objective facts featured in policy debates. The public also has lost much of its confidence in the institutions designed to adjudicate those epistemic debates. To counter this threat, civic entrepreneurs have devised institutional reforms to revitalize democratic policymaking. One promising intervention is the Citizens' Initiative Review (CIR), which has been adopted into law in Oregon and tested in several other states, as well as Switzerland and Finland. Each CIR gathers a demographically stratified random sample of registered voters to form a deliberative panel, which hears from pro and con advocates and neutral experts while assessing the merits of a ballot measure. After four-to-five days of deliberation, each CIR writes an issue guide for voters that identifies key factual findings, along with the most important pro and con arguments. This study pools the results of survey experiments conducted on thirteen CIRs held from 2010 to 2018, resulting in a dataset that includes 67,120 knowledge scores collected from 10,872 registered voters exposed to 82 empirical claims. Analysis shows that reading the CIR guide had a positive effect on voters' policy knowledge, with stronger effects for those holding greater faith in deliberation. We found little evidence of directional motivated reasoning but some evidence that reading the CIR statement can spark an accuracy motivation. Overall, the main results show how trust in peer deliberation provides one path out of the maze of misinformation shaping voter decisions during elections.

What Explains Voter Preferences in Transitional Tunisia? The Role of Particularistic Benefits

ABSTRACT What explains electoral support for Islamist parties? Existing literature assesses the role of programmatic appeals, in the form of religious ideology and economic programs, but lacks the data needed to test the role of particularistic benefits in shaping voter choice. Drawing on an original survey of 1,202 Tunisians conducted in 2012, I test the role of programmatic and particularistic benefits in explaining voter choice in Tunisia’s 2011 Constituent Assembly and 2014 parliamentary elections. I argue that, due to its greater party organizational capacity, Ennahda provided more constituency service than other parties and was more successful in attracting new supporters by 2012 as a result. In 2011, Ennahda voters were more religious and economically marginalized than non-Islamist voters. Yet by 2012, Ennahda developed a voter base drawn both from those who are ideologically committed to its religious program as well as those who requested constituency service from an Ennahda member. By showing that programmatic and particularistic appeals explain voter support for Islamist parties, this research extends the literature on Islam and politics and illustrates the importance of party capacity for developing a voter base in transitional contexts.

Identity Politics and its Implication on the Nigerian Electoral Process

This paper discusses the impact of identity politics on the Nigerian electoral process, with a focus on the 2019 general elections. The emergence of identity politics, which relies on ethnicity, religion, and regionalism to shape voters' preferences, has had far-reaching consequences on political discourse and election outcomes in Nigeria and other parts of the world. The paper draws on Social Identity Theory (SIT), as theoretical frame work which posits that individuals derive a sense of identity and self-esteem from their membership in social groups, to explain how group membership shapes attitudes and behaviors in the electoral process. The paper argues that while identity-based mobilization may provide short-term electoral gains for some politicians, it undermines the principles of inclusivity and diversity that are essential for a thriving democracy. The impact of identity politics on the Nigerian electoral process is not always positive, as ethnic and religious identities have often been used to mobilize violence and undermine the democratic process. Furthermore, the use of identity politics in political discourse can lead to the exclusion of certain groups and the formation of polarized and divided communities. The study found that in the 2019 presidential election, ethnic and religious identities played a significant role in determining voting patterns. The study also found that voters were more likely to support candidates who they perceived as representing their group's interests. These findings are consistent with the predictions of SIT, which posits that group membership plays a crucial role in shaping attitudes and behaviors. The paper highlights the need for political parties and candidates to focus on critical issues such as economic development and security, rather than relying on ethnic and religious identities to mobilize voters. It is also essential to promote intergroup dialogue and cooperation to foster national unity and social cohesion. Ultimately, the study emphasizes the need for a more nuanced and inclusive approach to politics that recognizes the division and polarization of diversity of identities and interests in Nigeria. The study recommends that political leaders, civil society organizations, and the media should encourage an inclusive political discourse that emphasizes the importance of unity and cooperation over

Social Network and Semantic Analysis of Roe v. Wade’s Reversal on Twitter

On June 24, 2022, the Supreme Court released its decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health, which officially repealed Roe v. Wade and its subsequent rulings. Employing social network analysis and semantic analysis methods, the current project reviews the public reaction among Twitter users shared from the May 2 draft leak to the June 24 official repeal, using a series of Twitter hashtags related to Roe v. Wade. The project identified the main influencers within the network, namely, journalist/news organizations, Internet celebrities, activists/activist groups, professional/non-profit organizations, and politicians/political organizations through social network analysis. Through semantic analysis, the authors found prominent themes such as legal concerns, discourse on reproductive rights, distrusting of Supreme Court’s authority, and political nepotism. The results offer policy implications and communication message strategies to healthcare providers and policymakers. The authors believe that the polarizing nature of Roe v. Wade-related issues will be a crucial factor in shaping voters’ decisions during the upcoming 2024 presidential election.

Electoral Competition between Social Democracy and the Populist Radical Right: How Welfare Regimes Shape Electoral Outcomes

This study examines how the growing competition over immigration and welfare between social democratic parties and populist radical right parties impacts electoral outcomes. The study argues that the historical legacies of the social democratic and conservative welfare regimes influence how voters respond to this competitive struggle. The findings support this argument. In the social democratic regime, populist radical right parties gain more support when they compete over welfare, although Nordic social democratic parties can mitigate this trend by appearing tough on immigration. However, populist radical right parties’ emphasis on welfare is the main source of electoral mobilization, particularly among voters with anti-immigration sentiments. In the conservative regime, the competitive dynamic is less connected to immigration, and populist radical right parties’ welfare discourse appeals primarily to economically vulnerable voters, while social democratic parties lose votes by taking a strict stance on immigration. These results have important implications and suggest that welfare regimes shape voting behaviour differently today than in previous eras.

Ethnonationalist Gender Norms: How Parties Shape Voter Attitudes toward Female Candidates in India

AbstractHow do parties in multiethnic societies shape voter attitudes toward female candidates? We address this question, focusing on parties with ideologies that contain ethnonationalist gender norms—patriarchal norms applied to women from an ethnonationalist party's core ethnic constituency. We argue that, while these norms appeal to an ethnonationalist party's base, they also provide informational cues to the party's “non‐core” voters that undermine their support for the party's “core” female candidates. Evidence from an original conjoint survey experiment in the Indian state of Bihar supports our argument; upper‐caste female candidates suffer a support penalty when they are affiliated with the national ruling party, whose ideology prescribes ethnonationalist gender norms targeting its core Hindu upper‐caste constituency. This penalty, we show, is driven by the party's non‐core voters. Our results, which we further bolster using real‐world electoral data, illuminate when and how ethnonationalist gender norms disadvantage elite female candidates.

Public attitudes toward organized labor

AbstractObjectiveDespite declining and historically low membership, labor unions remain important and relevant actors in American politics. Accordingly, we have learned a good deal about the economic and political consequences of labor unions and union membership. However, we know less about the dynamics, determinants, and political consequences of public attitudes toward organized labor.MethodsI use a variety of survey data to (1) track public support for labor unions over time, (2) to examine the microlevel determinants of labor attitudes, and (3) to examine how such attitudes shape voting behavior in national elections.ResultsFirst, I show that American public opinion has consistently been “pro‐labor” and that such sentiment is growing in recent years, despite historically low levels of union membership. Second, I show that while the strongest individual‐level correlate of union support is labor union affiliation, pluralities, and in some cases majorities, of nonunion‐affiliated Americans hold “pro‐labor” attitudes as well. Finally, I show that labor union attitudes significantly predict (among both union and nonunion‐affiliated Americans) support for the Democratic presidential candidate, net of partisanship, ideology, core political values, and macroeconomic conditions.ConclusionOverall, these results show that low levels of union membership do not imply an “anti‐union” mass public. These findings also demonstrate that attitudes toward labor unions are politically consequential.

The political benefits of student loan debt relief

Are people likely to reward politicians who support canceling student loan debt? This paper draws on original conjoint and survey experimental data to assess the effects of student debt relief proposals on voter behavior. Using data collected 3 months prior to Biden’s announcement of a specific plan for broad-based student debt relief, the paper addresses two interrelated questions: How do policy details—such as eligibility restrictions and the amount of debt canceled—shape voter support for candidates who embrace student loan cancellation? And second, will executive action by President Biden increase Democrats’ chances of winning in 2022 or 2024? We find evidence to suggest that candidates who support student debt relief plans offering generous debt cancellation while minimizing eligibility restrictions get the largest boost in support from voters, especially for key Democratic constituencies. We also find that executive action on student debt increases the likelihood that key groups would support Democratic congressional candidates in upcoming electoral contests. These results offer the first systematic evidence exploring the potential political ramifications of enacting student debt relief.

Mind the gap(s): Winning, losing, and perceptions of electoral integrity in mixed-member proportional systems

This study investigates whether and how experiences of winning and losing at the ballot box shape voters' views about the integrity of the electoral process in Germany's mixed-member proportional system. Relying on comprehensive data from the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) 2021, the analysis provides evidence for a consistent winner-loser gap in voters' electoral-integrity perceptions, with electoral losers evaluating the electoral process systematically more negative than electoral winners. Moreover, the analysis shows that the winner-loser gap is particularly pronounced for voters who lost in two consecutive federal elections (‘repeated losers’) as well as for those who suffered electoral defeat with both their list and district votes (‘double losers’). These findings provide novel insights on how voters in mixed-member proportional systems cope with winning and losing at the ballot box, highlighting that electoral losers place (part of) the blame for their electoral defeat on the electoral process and procedures as such. In addition, the findings point to the relevance of specific features of electoral systems in shaping winner-loser gaps in electoral-integrity beliefs.

Motivated to Forgive? Partisan Scandals and Party Supporters

In this study, we investigate how partisan motivations shape voters' reactions to a political scandal by drawing on a unique survey experiment fielded immediately after Justin Trudeau's brownface/blackface scandal broke during the 2019 Canadian election. We thus explore motivated reasoning in real time in a competitive and highly partisan election context. Are voters more willing to forgive politicians for past behavior when their own party leader's impropriety is cued? To what extent do personal interests, such as cross‐pressures or electoral concerns, affect the motivation to forgive? Our findings show that partisan‐motivated reasoning is overwhelmingly powerful, producing politically biased judgments of politicians implicated in scandals. Furthermore, voters' willingness to forgive scandals is also influenced by “strategic” considerations, in that preferences over which political party wins or loses in the election affect opinions about whether someone should be forgiven or whether the scandal is considered important at all. However, we find no evidence that personal involvement in the issue raised by the scandal conditions partisan motivations. We posit that the environment—in this case, a competitive election—is an important consideration for understanding the extent and limits of partisan‐motivated reasoning.

How U.S. Voters Elect Prosecutors: Evidence from a Conjoint Experiment

Do U.S. voters care about the policy positions of a candidate when choosing prosecutors? Conventional wisdom suggests the public favors punitiveness and that prosecutorial elections are apolitical. I argue that voters do care about the policy positions of prosecutors, but different information environments induce different voting behaviors. Using a conjoint experiment across four information settings, I show how policy congruence plays an important role in shaping voter’s decisions when candidates’ policy information is available. When policy information is sparse, voters take cues to infer candidates’ political leanings even in nonpartisan or low-information electoral environments. Contrary to the dominant view that the public favors punitiveness, my results suggest that the public is not unequivocally harsh. These findings speak to the possible benefits that society can reap from increasing the level of information available in prosecutorial elections. The findings also call into question the prevalent view that elections ought to compel prosecutors to adopt tough-on-crime stances that result in a highly incarcerated populace.

Populist attitudes in Australia: contextualising the demand-side

ABSTRACT The study of populist attitudes is a burgeoning area of scholarship. While the manner in which populism is measured and the concepts underpinning it are continuously updated, much work remains. In this article we consider the way populist attitudes are associated with key issues in Australian politics and the way these issues shape voting behaviour. We demonstrate that populist attitudes are associated with dissatisfaction with the functioning of liberal democracy, as well as negative attitudes towards Indigenous peoples. However, we find it is not strongly associated with economic anxiety. We argue that measuring populist attitudes in isolation from other national level contextual factors is problematic and can lead to flawed assumptions about the drivers of voting behaviour.

Manifestos and Voting Behavior in Third-Wave Democracies: Evidence from Ghana

Custom to pluralistic societies in emergent democracies, political mythology holds that since Ghana's Fourth Republic's inception, electoral outcomes have been fundamentally determined by ethno-political identification and other social cleavages to political parties. However, despite the potential influence of party manifesto contents in determining electoral outcomes, very little is known about the value of party manifestos in shaping voting behavior in the history of elections in the Fourth Republic. This is unfortunate because such knowledge can inform both the academic study of electoral politics and voting behavior. This article, rooted in the classical work on economic voting at both the individual and aggregate levels, presents original results from interviews with voters who participated in all the three recently held elections under study. Through interviews with 11,600 respondents from 116 constituencies and across all 16 regions, the study finds that the voting pattern in recent elections is not consistent with the popular ethno-social dynamics of Ghana's electoral politics. The results imply that party identification remains a significant determinant of voting decisions; nonetheless, the manifesto contents of political parties have become pivotal in shaping voting behavior rather than voting patterns based on socio-psychological notions and political party alignments. It concludes that voter inducement (kind or cash) in election periods is less relevant in structuring voting behavior. Further, it concludes that unless a major realignment occurs, electorates prefer a party with policies that maximize their utilities or will lead to the most considerable average benefit, as there is no reason to vote for a policy with idiosyncratic benefits or values. Thus, parties' policy blueprints or manifesto contents have become strong mobilizers and key determining factors for voters. As such, political parties need to invest in developing concrete policy programs that resonate with the citizenry to spur successful electoral outcomes.

An institutional safety net? How electoral institutions mediate the fortunes of parties under threat

ABSTRACT How do electoral institutions condition the electoral fortunes of parties under threat? In this article, we examine how Germany’s mixed-member proportional (MMP) system has influenced the vote share of the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (SPD), a party under threat which has consistently lost votes over the past two decades. Using the 2013 and 2017 waves of the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES), we find that voters are likely to engage in “sincere” vote switching on both the district and party ballots and that they are less likely to engage in “strategic” vote switching when they cast their district votes than when they cast their party votes, which protects SPD district candidates. Moreover, voters who stay with the SPD when casting their district vote are also less likely to switch their party votes, which protects the SPD’s overall vote share. We thus conclude that Germany’s MMP electoral system serves as an institutional safety net for the SPD as a party under threat. Our findings have important implications for understanding the ways in which electoral rules shape voting behavior and how different rules can mediate the decline of parties under threat.