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Coupling Analysis of “Demand–Satisfaction” for Rural Public Service Facilities Based on the Kano Model with Importance–Performance Analysis: A Case Study of Gaoqing County, Zibo City

In the context of people-oriented and high-quality development, improving the quality of rural public service facilities is an important way to promote rural revitalization. However, at present, there are problems such as imbalanced resource allocation, single service functions, and low service quality in regard to rural public service facilities in general, and the contradiction between supply and demand is becoming increasingly prominent. Only by effectively grasping the correlation between residents’ needs and their satisfaction with such facilities can the precise allocation of service facilities be carried out. In this study, Gaoqing County, Zibo City, Shandong Province, is selected as the empirical case. By applying the Kano model and Importance–Performance Analysis (IPA) through the use of questionnaire surveys and expert interviews, we develop an integrated “demand–satisfaction” analytical framework to propose targeted optimization strategies for rural public service facilities. Based on the Kano model, the essential, desired, and attractive needs of rural residents for various types of facilities were identified. Combining the IPA model, the coupling and coordination relationship between demand and satisfaction was further analyzed, and rural public service facilities were analyzed and categorized accordingly. The research results show that educational institution facilities, healthcare facilities, and market facilities have the highest demand, while cultural, sports, and technological facilities have relatively low demand. Based on the analysis results, this study proposes an optimization strategy for the classification and grading of the “demand–satisfaction” coupling relationship of public service facilities. It provides a scientific basis for the layout optimization of rural public service facilities, and also provides an effective reference for the sustainable development and service quality improvement and upgrading of rural areas.

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  • Journal IconBuildings
  • Publication Date IconMay 10, 2025
  • Author Icon Xinlei Wang + 8
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Pupillary Light Reflex Parameters as Predictors of Postoperative Nausea and Vomiting: A Prospective Study

AIM: This study aims to investigate whether pupillary light reflex (PLR) parameters in dynamic pupillometry can effectively predict postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV). METHODS: In this prospective observational study, patients scheduled to undergo elective lobectomy under general anesthesia were enrolled from 1 August 2023 to 7 October 2023 at Yantai Yuhuangding Hospital, a large regional tertiary hospital in Yantai City, Shandong Province, China. Preoperative pupillary parameters were measured using a portable infrared pupillometer, and the patients were followed up within 24 hours postoperatively to assess postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV) and recovery quality. Logistic regression analysis and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves were used to evaluate the predictive efficacy of pupillary parameters, and mediation analysis was conducted to explore the mediating role of PONV between pupillary parameters and recovery quality. RESULTS: Forty-six patients (29.9%) who experienced PONV had smaller maximum pupil diameter, average constriction velocity (ACV), maximum constriction velocity (MCV), and percentage pupil change. MCV was identified as an independent predictor of PONV, with each 1-unit increase in MCV reducing the risk of PONV by 87%. Gender was a protective factor, with males having a 65% lower risk of PONV compared to females. The ROC analysis showed that the area under the curve (AUC) value of MCV was 0.831 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.760–0.902), indicating that the model has strong classification ability when using MCV as a predictor. Thus, PONV plays a full mediating role in the relationship between MCV and postoperative recovery quality. CONCLUSIONS: MCV is a reliable predictor of PONV, which plays a full mediating role in the relationship between MCV and postoperative recovery quality. Thus, with a capability in predicting PONV occurrence, preoperative MCV measurement can be employed for the purpose of improving patient recovery outcomes. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (ChiCTR2300073869).

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  • Journal IconAnnali Italiani di Chirurgia
  • Publication Date IconMay 10, 2025
  • Author Icon Yawen Zhang + 7
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Longitudinal associations between Big Five personality and insomnia: evidence based on a 4-year perspective cohort study among community residents

IntroductionWhile the association between personality traits and insomnia has been confirmed, the longitudinal relationship between them remains unclear.MethodsThis is a 4-year longitudinal cohort study conducted among rural community residents (N = 482) in Shandong Province, China.ResultsThis study found that neuroticism (β = 0.175, p < 0.001), extraversion (β = −0.146, p < 0.001), and conscientiousness (β = −0.168, p < 0.001) at baseline had statistically significant longitudinal associations with insomnia at follow-up. In addition, insomnia at baseline had statistically significant longitudinal correlations with neuroticism (β = 0.142, p < 0.01), extraversion (β = −0.209, p < 0.001), and agreeableness (β = −0.122, p < 0.01) at follow-up.DiscussionThis study showed that both neuroticism and extraversion had a bidirectional relationship with insomnia. Insomnia had a one - way longitudinal correlation with agreeableness, and conscientiousness had a one - way longitudinal correlation with insomnia. The longitudinal correlation between openness and insomnia was not supported in this study.

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  • Journal IconFrontiers in Psychology
  • Publication Date IconMay 9, 2025
  • Author Icon Ziming Shao + 11
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Study on the Pollution Mechanism and Driving Factors of Groundwater Quality in Typical Industrial Areas of China

Uncovering the characteristics of groundwater pollution and its driving mechanisms are crucial for maintaining its ecological functions. This study focuses on hydrochemical changes and their driving factors in groundwater from different aquifers in industrial zones, taking Zibo City, Shandong Province, China, as the research area. During the dry and flood seasons of 2022, samples of phreatic water in pore media (17 sites) and karst confined water (23 sites) were collected and monitored. Piper trilinear diagrams, Gibbs diagrams, ion ratio diagrams, and a principal component analysis (PCA) were used for in-depth analyses. Pore phreatic water had higher excess rates of Na+, Cl−, and NO3− than karst confined water, which indicated a greater degree of human impact compared with karst confined water. The main hydrochemical type was HCO3·SO4-Ca, but in the dry season, pore phreatic water shifted to HCO3·SO4·Cl-Ca. The ion ratios and PCA indicated that the groundwater quality was mainly controlled by water–rock interactions and industrial activities. In the flood season, pore phreatic water was influenced by evaporite dissolution, industrial activities, and domestic sewage, while in the dry season, it was affected by halite and carbonate weathering dissolution and domestic sewage. Karst confined water was controlled by water–rock interactions and industrial activities in both seasons. The findings reveal that the key drivers of groundwater quality displayed significant differences depending on the aquifer type and seasonal variations. As such, customized approaches are essential to efficiently address and counteract the decline in groundwater quality.

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  • Journal IconWater
  • Publication Date IconMay 8, 2025
  • Author Icon Li Wang + 2
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<b>Research on the Current Status and Improvement Strategies of </b><b>Kindergarten</b><b> Teachers' Career Well-being in Shandong Province</b>

Career well-being among kindergarten teachers is a critical factor influencing the quality of early childhood education. This study found that the overall career well-being of kindergarten teachers in Shandong Province is at a moderate level, influenced by the interactive mechanisms of various dimensions such as salary, work pressure, and social support. This paper proposes four aspects for improving kindergarten teachers' career well-being: constructing a differentiated compensation system, implementing systematic interventions for stress management, improving developmental support networks, and strengthening social recognition initiatives. These strategies aim to provide a reference for enhancing the professional ecology of kindergarten teachers.

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  • Journal IconJournal of Educational Technology and Innovation
  • Publication Date IconMay 8, 2025
  • Author Icon Rui Li
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Corrigendum: Causes analysis of red tide event in the offshore sea of Rongcheng, Shandong Province, China based on a coupled physical-biological model

Corrigendum: Causes analysis of red tide event in the offshore sea of Rongcheng, Shandong Province, China based on a coupled physical-biological model

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  • Journal IconFrontiers in Marine Science
  • Publication Date IconMay 7, 2025
  • Author Icon Wenxin Jiang + 4
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Short-term effects of thinning on the growth and soil improvement of typical stands in the Yellow River Delta

The effects of thinning were studied on stand growth and the physicochemical soil characteristics of typical plantations in the Yellow River flood plain in northern Shandong Province. Growth indices and soil physical and chemical indices were monitored and in 8-year-old plantations of Fraxinus chinensis, Salix matsudana, and Ulmus pumila in the Yellow River Delta. Data were collected at an initial stand density of 3 m × 3 m and 3 years after artificial thinning to a stand density of 3 m × 6 m. (1) Thinning promoted growth, and the effect on the U. pumila plantation was the greatest. The diameter at breast height, tree height and crown width increased by 41.28, 19.98, and 59.49%, respectively. (2) Thinning increased the soil moisture at the studied plantations, reduced the soil bulk density, and increased the soil porosity and the water holding capacity. The results differed among the plantations, with the greatest improvement occurring at the U. pumila plantation. (3) Thinning had a greater effect on inorganic than on organic soil nutrients according to forest type; the changes in nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium contents in different soil layers substantially varied with the species planted. Most variables significantly differed at the S. matsudana plantation, and the changes in different soil layers were inconsistent. (4) Thinning significantly increased the correlations between stand growth and soil physicochemical properties. Thinning positively affected forest growth and soil physicochemical properties, but the variation in each index across the different plantations was quite different. Thus, thinning could help promote the stable and sustainable development of forest plantations in the Yellow River Delta, and these results provide a reference for the rational management of plantations.

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  • Journal IconFrontiers in Microbiology
  • Publication Date IconMay 7, 2025
  • Author Icon Wenjing Liu + 4
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The impact of green subsidies on farmers’ low-carbon production transition

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to test whether green subsidies, as an effective means of efficiently addressing positive production externalities, can effectively promote farmers’ low-carbon production transition. Design/methodology/approach Based on the microsurvey data of 498 hog farmers in Sichuan and Shandong provinces, this paper empirically analyzes the effects and mechanisms of green subsidies on farmers’ low-carbon production transition by constructing a counterfactual framework using an endogenous switching regression model. Findings First, green subsidies can promote low-carbon production transition of farmers. Second, there are group differences in the impact of green subsidies on farmers’ low-carbon production transition. Third, the mechanism test shows that the promotion effect of green subsidies on farmers’ low-carbon production transition points stems from the wealth effect, expectation effect and scale effect brought by green subsidies. Originality/value On the one hand, the current research on low-carbon production transition of farmers focuses on the single dimensions of factor input reduction, harmless waste treatment and resource utilization of manure. On the basis of relevant studies, this paper constructs a comprehensive index system from the three dimensions. On the other hand, this paper explores the mechanism and impact effect of green subsidies on farmers’ low-carbon production transition from both theoretical and empirical levels, so as to enrich the research content of green subsidies in animal husbandry.

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  • Journal IconInternational Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management
  • Publication Date IconMay 6, 2025
  • Author Icon Lan Liu + 2
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Analysis of the current status of self-management ability and related influencing factors in patients with neurogenic bladder due to traumatic spinal cord injury.

This study aims to assess the current status of self-management ability in patients with neurogenic bladder resulting from traumatic spinal cord injury (TSCI) and to analyze the factors influencing this ability. A cross-sectional study was conducted from November 2023 to July 2024, a total of 305 patients with neurogenic bladder due to TSCI were recruited from over 30 medical institutions, including rehabilitation centers within tertiary general hospitals, secondary rehabilitation hospitals, and private rehabilitation facilities across Shandong Province, China. Face-to-face interviews were conducted using a general information questionnaire, the patient positive measurement scale, the social support rating scale, and the self-management ability scale. Pearson correlation analysis and multiple linear regression were employed for statistical analysis. Among 305 patients with neurogenic bladder caused by TSCI, the score of positivemeasurement scale was 40.95 ± 8.26, the score of the social support scale was 38.12 ± 8.35, and the score of self-management ability scale was 118.19 ± 37.16. In univariate analysis, social support (β = 0.364, P < 0.001), positive degree (β = 0.505, P < 0.001) and bladder training (β = -0.349, P < 0.001) positively predicted self-management ability. Age was a negative predictor of self-management ability (β = -0.204, P < 0.001). In multiple linear regression analysis, social support (β = 0.194, P < 0.001), bladder training (β = -0.262, P < 0.001) and positive degree (β = 0.376, P < 0.001) were still positively correlated with self-management ability. Self-management ability in patients with neurogenic bladder secondary to TSCI is moderate, and patient activation is low. The establishment of an effective social support system, the implementation of bladder training and the improvement of patients positive degree can be used as an entry point to improve their self-management behavior ability, so as to reduce the patients' dependence on others care and prepare for discharge and return to society. Not applicable.

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  • Journal IconWorld journal of urology
  • Publication Date IconMay 4, 2025
  • Author Icon Yanyan Zhang + 8
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Assessment of eHealth literacy among cardiovascular disease patients and analysis of influencing factors

ObjectiveThis study aimed to comprehensively evaluate the eHealth literacy of patients with cardiovascular diseases and uncover the associated influencing factors. The findings are intended to lay a solid foundation for formulating targeted strategies to enhance the health literacy of this patient population.MethodsBetween October 2023 and June 2024, a purposive sampling approach was employed to recruit patients with cardiovascular diseases visiting the cardiology department of a tertiary hospital in Shandong Province. The eHealth Literacy Scale (eHEALS) was utilized to assess the eHealth literacy levels of the participants. Based on the assessment results, the subjects were classified into qualified and unqualified groups. Subsequently, logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify the influencing factors underlying eHealth literacy.ResultsThe eHealth literacy score among cardiovascular disease patients was 20.46 ± 9.54, with a passing rate of 38.6%. The overall mean score across all items was 2.5 ± 1.19. Specifically, for the sub-domains of internet health information service capabilities and application abilities, evaluation capabilities of internet health information and services, and decision - making capabilities of internet health information and services, the mean scores were 2.49 ± 1.18, 2.67 ± 1.32, and 2.66 ± 1.35, respectively. Findings from binary logistic regression analysis suggest that education level, sleep quality, residing in close proximity to a medical institution (distance &amp;lt; 5 km), prior utilization of medical information websites or search engines, as well as the interaction between proactive health awareness and utilization of medical information websites or search engines, were all influencing factors for the qualification of e - health literacy (p &amp;lt; 0.05). These results underscore the complex interplay of multiple factors in determining patients’ eHealth literacy levels, which has important implications for the design and implementation of effective health information dissemination and patient education strategies in the digital age.ConclusionOur findings reveal that the eHealth literacy among cardiovascular disease (CVD) patients remains at a relatively low level. This situation underscores the urgent need for interventions aimed at enhancing patients’ proactive health awareness and delivering targeted eHealth training programs. Specifically, such initiatives should be designed to enable patients to accurately access, comprehensively understand, critically evaluate, and effectively apply health information in the digital realm. By doing so, we can empower CVD patients to better manage their health in the context of the digital age, ultimately leading to an improvement in their eHealth literacy levels. These efforts are not only crucial for individual patient care but also have broader implications for optimizing health outcomes at a population level.

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  • Journal IconFrontiers in Public Health
  • Publication Date IconMay 2, 2025
  • Author Icon Wei Wang + 5
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Characteristics of VOCs in coating materials manufacturing and contributions to environmental implication based on on-site sampling in Shandong Province

Characteristics of VOCs in coating materials manufacturing and contributions to environmental implication based on on-site sampling in Shandong Province

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  • Journal IconJournal of Environmental Sciences
  • Publication Date IconMay 1, 2025
  • Author Icon Sisi Huo + 9
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Associations Between Health Literacy and Chronic Disease Prevalence Among Employees in Chinese Petroleum Companies: A Cross-Sectional Study.

Employees in the petrochemical industry are exposed to numerous occupational hazards, contributing to a higher prevalence of chronic diseases. Health literacy, which reflects an individual's ability to access, understand, and use health information, is a critical factor in managing chronic diseases. However, its specific role in this workforce is not well understood. This study investigates the associations between health literacy and the prevalence and number of chronic diseases among employees in a Chinese petrochemical company. In March 2022, a cross-sectional survey collected 39,491 valid responses from employees of a large petrochemical company in Shandong Province, China. Health literacy was measured using the National Health Literacy Monitoring Questionnaire, while chronic disease prevalence and number were self-reported. Logistic and linear regression were used to examine associations between health literacy and chronic disease prevalence and count, respectively. Among respondents, 72.1% reported at least one chronic disease, and 53.9% were classified as having adequate health literacy. The domain of Health-Related Skills had the lowest qualification rate (46.4%), and the dimension of Chronic Disease Prevention and Control was the lowest-scoring dimension (33.0%). Overall health literacy was not significantly associated with chronic disease prevalence but was negatively associated with the number of chronic diseases (B = -0.05, 95% CI: -0.08 - -0.02, p < 0.001). Notably, higher literacy in Chronic Disease Prevention and Control was significantly associated with both reduced prevalence (OR = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.90-1.00, p = 0.034) and fewer chronic diseases (B = -0.01, 95% CI: -0.02-0.00, p = 0.004). While overall health literacy was not significantly associated with chronic disease prevalence, it was negatively associated with the number of chronic diseases. Moreover, health literacy in Chronic Disease Prevention and Control showed significant associations with both lower prevalence and fewer chronic diseases.

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  • Journal IconRisk management and healthcare policy
  • Publication Date IconMay 1, 2025
  • Author Icon Huifen Ma + 5
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Exposure profiles, determinants, and health risks of chemicals in personal care products among healthy older adults from the China BAPE study.

Exposure profiles, determinants, and health risks of chemicals in personal care products among healthy older adults from the China BAPE study.

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  • Journal IconJournal of hazardous materials
  • Publication Date IconMay 1, 2025
  • Author Icon Xiaojie Guo + 17
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Perceived instructional leadership, organizational climate, and commitment: influences on need-supportive teaching in higher vocational colleges

The problem and the aim of the study. This study examines the relationship between perceived instructional leadership and need-supportive teaching in higher vocational colleges in China. Additionally, it explores how teachers' perceptions of the organizational climate and their commitment to the college influence this relationship. This study aims to help improve the instructional leadership among leaders in vocational colleges and encourage teachers in these institutions to enhance their need-supportive teaching, thereby cultivating highly skilled technical professionals. Research methods. Quantitative research methodology is employed in this study. A convenience sample of 850 vocational college teachers from Shandong Province, China, was selected and surveyed. Data analysis was conducted using SPSS for correlation analysis, and AMOS was utilized to establish the structural equation model for this research. Mediation effects of the model were examined through Bootstrap analysis. The research findings contribute to explaining the influence pathway of perceived instructional leadership on teachers' need-supportive teaching. Results. Analyses conducted using the Bootstrap mediation structural equation modeling, the direct effect of perceived instructional leadership on need-supportive teaching is 0.234 (p&lt; .01), with a 95% confidence interval (CI) of (0.098, 0.344). The effect of perceived instructional leadership on need-supportive teaching through perceived school organizational climate is 0.109 (p &lt; .01), with a 95% CI of (0.070, 0.149). Furthermore, the effect through the teachers’ organizational commitment is 0.219 (p &lt; .01), with a 95% CI of (0.146, 0.329). Lastly, the path effect of perceived instructional leadership on need-supportive teaching, mediated by both perceived organizational climate and organizational commitment, is 0.023 (p&lt; .01), a 95%CI of (0.007, 0.045), excluding zero in all intervals. The study indicates that perceived organizational climate and organizational commitment play a serial mediating role in the relationship between perceived instructional leadership and the need-supportive teaching. KEYWORDS Conclusion. This study examines the factors influencing need-supportive teaching among teachers. It was found that the level of perceived instructional leadership, the perceived school organizational climate, and the teachers' own organizational commitment all positively impact need-supportive teaching. The study suggests that school leaders can enhance their instructional leadership skills, cultivate a positive school organizational climate, and thereby advance the organizational commitment of teachers, which in turn can foster the development of teachers' need-supportive teaching practices. These findings aid in the improvement of school management and promote the advancement of teaching quality.

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  • Journal IconPerspectives of science and Education
  • Publication Date IconMay 1, 2025
  • Author Icon Fei Tian + 1
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Differential Response Mechanisms of Kelp Aquaculture in Rongcheng and Changdao, Shandong Province, to Abnormal Coastal Currents in Autumn 2021

Differential Response Mechanisms of Kelp Aquaculture in Rongcheng and Changdao, Shandong Province, to Abnormal Coastal Currents in Autumn 2021

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  • Journal IconRegional Studies in Marine Science
  • Publication Date IconMay 1, 2025
  • Author Icon Wenjian Li + 3
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Trace the origin of dried sea cucumber (Apostichopus japonicus) in Shandong Province based on elements ananlysis combined with machine learning

Trace the origin of dried sea cucumber (Apostichopus japonicus) in Shandong Province based on elements ananlysis combined with machine learning

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  • Journal IconFood and Humanity
  • Publication Date IconMay 1, 2025
  • Author Icon Wanli Zong + 6
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Comprehensive ecological risk assessment method for multi-pesticide pollution in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea, China.

Comprehensive ecological risk assessment method for multi-pesticide pollution in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea, China.

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  • Journal IconMarine pollution bulletin
  • Publication Date IconMay 1, 2025
  • Author Icon Limin Wang + 6
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Risk Assessment for Compound Disaster Events of Hot-Drought and Hot-Humid in Shandong, China

The climate risk assessment (CRA) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive framework for evaluating hazards, exposure, and vulnerability by integrating multiple methodologies. Previous research demonstrated that the impact of compound disasters on socioeconomic activities extends beyond a mere aggregation of individual hazard effects. This study aims to conduct a climate risk assessment for compound disaster events of hot-drought and hot-humid and employ an atmospheric reanalysis dataset (ERA5) to obtain precipitation, temperature, and humidity across 16 cities in Shandong Province, China. The findings revealed that between 1979 and 2019, the frequency of hot and drought compound events fluctuated, whereas the occurrence of hot and humid compound events displayed a significant increasing trend. Specifically, the frequency of hot and humid compound events across Shandong Province from 2010 to 2019 was 77% higher than that observed from 1979 to 1989. We identified 12 vulnerability, exposure, and capacity indicators, including two compound hazard events. Using the CRA framework, this study applied the entropy method to evaluate the weight factors of the indicators in risk assessment, enabling a systematic risk assessment of summer compound events in the region. The results offer a ranking of urban compound disaster risks for 16 cities and provide valuable insights for local governments to enhance risk identification efficiency and strengthen disaster prevention and mitigation strategies.

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  • Journal IconJournal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
  • Publication Date IconApr 30, 2025
  • Author Icon Quan Feng + 1
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Anatomical study of the lateral plantar ligament of the population in the southwest of Shandong Province.

To clarify the anatomical characteristics of the lateral plantar ligament (LPL) of the transverse metatarsal arch (TMA) in the population of southwest Shandong Province, so as to complement the anatomical structures of the midfoot and Lisfranc joint complexes. A total of 100 adult lower limbs were dissected and the types of LPL were divided according to their insertions, among them, 63 were (63%) and 37 were female (37%); 50 were on the left side (50%) and 50 were on the right side (50%). The fiber bundle length, origin width, insertion width, and thickness of the LPL were measured. (1) According to the insertions of the LPL, they were divided into: ① Type I, the LPL was inserted at the base of the second metatarsal (M2) in 47 cases; ② Type II, the LPL was inserted at the base of M2 and fused with tibialis posterior tendon (TPT) in 16 cases; ③ Type III, the LPL was absent in 16 cases; ④ Type IV, the LPL was inserted at TPT in 6 cases; ⑤ Type V, the LPL was inserted at the intermediate cuneiform (IC) in 1 case; ⑥ Type VI, bifid LPL with one bundle inserted at the base of M2, and the other bundle inserted at the medial cuneiform (MC) in 4 cases; ⑦ Type VII, two bundles of LPL inserted at the base of M2 in 8 cases; ⑧ Type VIII, the LPL consisted of 3 bundles; the distal, middle and proximal bundles was inserted at the base of M2, the TPT and the lateral side of navicular bone in 2 cases, respectively. (2) There was a statistical significance in the length of LPL between male (31.62 ± 3.83) mm and female (28.07 ± 3.46) mm (t=-3.050, P = 0.003). There was no statistical significance in the types of LPL between male and female (Z=-1.721, P > 0.05), and no statistical significance in the types between left and right sides (Z=-0.026, P > 0.05). According to our research, LPL originates from M5 and is divided into 8 types according to its insertion location, of which insertion at the base of M2 is the most common. In addition, we found that LPL has fibrous fusion with the long plantar ligament and the TPT, which may be involved in maintaining arch stability. The classification of LPL in this study is a supplement to the anatomical structure of the middle foot and Lisfranc joint complex, providing a new direction for the diagnosis and treatment of middle foot and arch injury in the future.

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  • Journal IconSurgical and radiologic anatomy : SRA
  • Publication Date IconApr 30, 2025
  • Author Icon Zhuan Gao + 6
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Comparative Analysis of Risk Factor Weighting GBDT Methods for Enhancing the Accuracy of Flood Risk Assessment

In recent years, the increasing frequency of flood disasters has emerged as a significant challenge to sustainable urban development. To improve the precision of urban flood risk assessment and effectively identify flood-prone cities, this study proposes an enhanced evaluation framework that integrates the traditional entropy weighted method with a genetic algorithm (GA) and gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) for a weighted estimation of risk factors and indicators in flood risk assessments. Utilizing historical data from 16 prefecture-level cities in Shandong Province, China, the model assigns optimized weights to four key dimensions of flood risk or risk factors (hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and tolerance) and constructs a comprehensive urban flood risk assessment model. The resulting flood risk indices provide a quantitative basis for ranking the flood susceptibility of these cities, offering critical insights into targeted disaster risk reduction strategies. Subsequently, the assessment results were validated against urban flood loss data from 2017 to 2019. The GA, as a robust global optimization technique, has been extensively applied to identify optimal solutions for parameterized functions. The GBDT algorithm operates by minimizing the root mean squared error during iterative learning processes, incrementally refining the regression outcomes of the loss function to approach the optimal prediction. Comparative analysis demonstrates that relative to traditional approaches and the GA-based method, the GBDT model achieves substantially higher accuracy in identifying urban flood susceptibility, with error reductions of 8.94%, 24.23%, and 26.05%, respectively. These findings indicate that the proposed flood risk index serves as a reliable and effective decision-support tool, enabling policymakers to rapidly identify cities with inadequate disaster preparedness.

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  • Journal IconJournal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
  • Publication Date IconApr 30, 2025
  • Author Icon Quan Feng + 1
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