Services In GDP Research Articles

Driving factors on unemployment in Iran’s provinces: Do temporal and spatial dynamics matter?

Unemployment is an important index describing an economic situation and the development of societies. The existence of unemployment means a loss of production factor that is not savable and irrecoverable. Therefore, it is essential to proper planning and policymaking to control and reduce unemployment, and it is necessary to conduct extensive studies on unemployment. Since there is a probability of autocorrelation between the unemployment rate of provinces, it is necessary to pay attention to spatial dynamics. In addition, controlling unemployment requires a long‐run policy, and it cannot be reduced over periods as short as 1 year. Correspondingly, unemployment in a province can be expected to be dynamic by nature and dependent on the unemployment in the previous period. Thus, temporal dynamics should be considered when examining unemployment’s driving factors. To do that, this study seeks to identify the driving factors of unemployment by emphasizing temporal and spatial dynamics in 28 of Iran’s provinces for the period 2001–2019 using the dynamic SAR model. The result indicates that the lag time of unemployment positively affects unemployment in the current time. Additionally, the unemployment of neighbors has a negative and statistically significant impact on the unemployment of provinces. The effects of GDP per capita, government budget per capita, human capital, inflation rate, industrial concentration, the share of the added value by agriculture in GDP, and the share of value added by services in GDP on the unemployment rate are negative and statistically significant.

Повышение качества инженерного образования

Taking the premise that the main driving force of the economy of post-industrial society is the scientific developments of specialists with engineering education, that the basis of building a post-industrial society, its foundation, its foundation is a competent, highly educated, responsible person — a professional in his field of activity, it follows that it is necessary to educate competent creators - individuals capable of transforming society into a post-industrial one. high-performance industry, with a high share of high-tech and innovative services in GDP, with a knowledge industry. The education and training of young people in engineering sciences, and not only in engineering should become the main priority of the state’s domestic policy. Taking into account the increase in the amount of necessary knowledge from the course of the theory of elasticity — the foundation of engineering and architecture — it is proposed to organize the study of the course of the theory of elasticity in two stages: one semester theoretical and one semester practical. A student who has attended a course on the theory of elasticity in two stages and has received an exhaustive amount of knowledge will undoubtedly become a competent, knowledgeable specialist in the field of the theory of calculation and design of civil and industrial buildings and engineering structures. In conclusion, it is proposed to clarify the names of such disciplines as ‘Fundamentals of Technical Mechanics’, ‘Strength of Materials’, ‘Theory of Elasticity’.

BRICS: The 2008 financial crisis and economic performance

The 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) resulted in a deterioration of the economic condition in developing countries with lower growth of per capita GDP, a decline in the share of exports of goods and services in GDP, and a worsening of the external balance. After a limited initial impact, growth rates declined in all the economies and were substantially lower in all the BRICS countries in the period 2015–2019 than before the crisis. Two of them, Brazil and South Africa, experienced a drop in per capita GDP during 2015–1019. Export performance suffered and the external balance worsened for all BRICS countries. The BRICS share of world GDP increased mainly because of the rapid growth in China and to a lesser extent in India. The relative size of per capita GDP in Brazil, Russia and South Africa decreased between 2001–2007 and 2015–2019. Furthermore, the average per capita GDP in Brazil and South Africa decreased compared to that of the world. BRICS, however, fared better in trade. Both their share of world trade and the share of trade in their GDP increased. The BRICS countries have strong trade links with other developing countries and have become more stable after the GFC, thereby contributing to the performance of the global economy. There are strong growth linkages among the member countries. Trade relations are dominated by China. BRICS, however, failed to comply with G20 commitment made at the 2014 Brisbane summit to raise the rate of growth by 2% by 2018. The authors undertook a time series analysis to investigate the relationship between growth of per capita income, the share of gross fixed investment in GDP, the share of exports of goods and services in GDP, and the share of external balance in GDP. We found out that usually, but not for all BRICS countries, capital formation had a positive effect on growth, while the external deficit had a negative effect.

SOCIO-ECONOMIC FEATURES OF TOURISM DEVELOPMENT

This article focuses on the social and economic features of the development of tourism, and also developed recommendations for the sustainable development of the tourism sector, raising it to new levels, improving the quality of services and the share of travel services in GDP.

Analysis of approaches to assessing changes in welfare and real GDP growth during digitalization of the economy

The paper attempts to estimate, in monetary terms, the volume of free digital services in GDP while assessing the contribution of digitalization to changes in welfare and economic growth. Approaches to such an estimation are analyzed and criticized. In particular, the calculation of the added value created in the digital sector does not properly reflect the economic effect of digitalization. Alternative auxiliary methods for estimating the contribution of digitalization to GDP growth are considered: the creation of satellite accounts of the digital economy within the SNA; the categorization and calculation of “purely” digital goods. The paper analyzes the methodology of calculating GDP which takes into account consumer surpluses from the use of free digital goods. The advantages of this methodology are outlined, including the consideration of a significant part of the digital sector of the economy in the calculation of GDP, as well as the relative ease of its use. This methodology was tested by drawing on the example of the Republic of Bashkortostan.

A cross-country analysis of the role of service sector in the relationship between CO<SUB align="right">2 emissions and economic growth using machine learning techniques

The study aims to explore the relationship between CO2 emissions per capita, service sector share in GDP and GDP per capita using decision tree, and multiple ridge and lasso regression techniques on cross-sectional data of 175 countries. GDP per capita is a better determinant of the CO2 emissions of a country than the share of services in GDP. The fit between emissions and income improves on account of service sector share in GDP. The study finds that an increase in service sector share in high income countries leads to decrease in emissions while in low income countries it leads to an increase in emissions. An N-shaped relationship is found between CO2 emissions and income across the countries. Service sector share acts as a moderator in this relationship.

МИЛЛИЙ ИҚТИСОДИЁТНИНГ ТАРМОҚ ТАРКИБИ ВА УНИНГ ДИНАМИКАСИДАГИ ЎЗГАРИШЛАР ТАҲЛИЛИ

The article examines the dynamics of changes in the share of industry, agriculture and services in GDP, as well as changes in the share of high, low and low technologies in the structure of industry. The impact of these sectoral changes on the commodity composition of the country's exports has been revealed.

Diagnostics of transformations in regions’ commodity export under the influence of full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war

The Ukrainian economy is traditionally export-oriented – the export share of goods and services in GDP (in actual prices) was 40.6% in 2021, and in GVA – more than 45 %. The military aggression of the russian federation against Ukraine has actualized the problematic topic of strengthening the domestic export potential to ensure the proper level of socio-economic development. Therefore, the Government has announced an orientation towards the export model of the national economy’s growth – the goal has been set to increase the share of exports in GDP up to 50%. The purpose of the article is to assess the dynamics and directions of the structural transformations in the commodity exports of Ukrainian regions under the influence of armed aggression by the russian federation. The authors conduct an express diagnosis of export-import operations in Ukraine in the conditions of a full-scale russian-Ukrainian war. The export activity at the meso level is analyzed based on the calculation of indicators that characterize: the export coverage level of imports, the commodity export orientation of the economy, the degree of technological export, and the high-tech export orientation of industry. Attention is focused on a significant share of toll manufacturing products in the high-tech commodity exports of the vast majority of the Western regions. Based on the structural assessment of the commodity exports of Ukraine and its regions, changes in the export specialization of the latter ones by main commodity groups are defined. Key trends and problems in the formation and development of Ukraine's export potential in the face of external challenges and threats are outlined. Measures for the implementation of an effective state policy for domestic export stimulation are offered, and their target orientations from the standpoint of national interest protection are defined. The need for a large-scale import substitution program initially focused on investment stimulation in the processing industries where Ukraine has sufficient raw materials potential for their development (agro-processing and production of finished metal products) is emphasized. Further establishment of the production of goods with high added value will allow changing the product structure of Ukrainian exports toward the increase in the finished products’ share of processing industries and mechanical engineering.

Impact of urbanization on per capita energy use and emissions in India

Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate the impacts of urbanization on per capita energy consumption and emissions in India. Design/methodology/approach The present study analyses the effects of urbanization on energy consumption patterns by using the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology in India. Time series data from the period of 1960 to 2015 has been considered for the analysis. Variables including Population, GDP per capita, Energy intensity, share of industry in GDP, share of Services in GDP, total energy use and urbanization from World Bank data sources have been used for investigating the relationship between urbanization, affluence and energy use. Findings Energy demand is positively related to affluence (economic growth). Further the results of the analysis also suggest that, as urbanization, GDP and population are bound to increase in the future, consequently resulting in increased carbon dioxide emissions caused by increased energy demand and consumption. Thus, reducing the energy intensity is key to energy security and lower carbon dioxide emissions for India. Research limitations/implications The study will have important policy implications for India’s energy sector transition toward non- conventional, clean energy sources in the wake of growing share of its population residing in urban spaces. Originality/value There are limited number of studies considering the impacts of population density on per capita energy use. So this study also contributes methodologically by establishing per capita energy use as a function of population density and technology (i.e. growth rates of industrial and service sector).

EXTERNAL ADJUSTMENT AND FLEXIBILITY OF THE EXCHANGE RATE REGIME: THE CASE OF TRANSITION COUNTRIES

Milton Friedman’s traditional claim is that flexible exchange rates facilitate external adjustment by means of their cor- rective movements before the balance of payments crisis occurs. In order to test this hypothesis, we employ the first order autoregression based on the panel data on exchange rate regime and external balance expressed as the share of balance of goods and services in GDP. The sample covers 16 Central and Eastern European (CEE) and 12 Common- wealth of Independent States (CIS) transition countries over the period 2000-2019. The results, which are based on the sample of all transition countries, failed to prove that more flexible exchange rate regimes facilitate external adjust- ment. When the analysis was performed on two groups of countries separately, the results showed that the deficit of balance of goods and services in CIS countries has a higher persistence compared to CEE countries. However, a more flexible exchange rate regime does not facilitate external ad- justment. On the other hand, in CEE countries, the relation- ship between exchange rate regime flexibility and the rate of balance of goods and services reversion exists, proving that Friedman’s hypothesis does hold.

A Comparative Analysis of the Trade and Industrial Policies of Ukraine and China in the Context of the Obor Initiative

The world economy is evolving towards multipolar globalization, and China has become a new pole of economic development. Ukraine, like other countries, is looking for ways to cooperate with China in the field of trade and investment. China, for its part, offers a model of cooperation within the framework of the OBOR (One Belt, One Road) initiative. Along with Chinese investment in transport and logistics infrastructure, OBOR aims to conclude FTAs with the countries participating in the initiative; thus, the article focuses on the issues of trade, and Ukraine’s industrial and innovation policy in the context of the OBOR initiative. A comparative analysis of both countries’ trade and industrial policies was conducted to provide a basis for evaluation. The terms of trade between Ukraine and China are not symmetrical due to the difference in the scale of the economy and trade. Additionally, Ukraine’s trade regime is relatively liberal, while the Chinese market is protected by higher tariff and non‑tariff barriers. Furthermore, the current situation in mutual trade is asymmetric. Ukraine exports mainly raw materials to China, while exports from China to Ukraine are dominated by investment and consumer goods.
 The import dependence of the Ukrainian economy, in general, is high without any noticeable signs of decline. In 2014–2018, the share of imports of goods and services in GDP in Ukraine averaged 54% (for comparison, in China, this parameter was 19%). In 2018, 55% of Ukraine’s negative balance in trade in goods was due to trade with China. China seeks to conclude FTAs under the OBOR initiative, but in the current context, the liberalization of trade regimes with China will result in Ukraine growing its raw material exports to China and increasing its dependence on Chinese imports. On the other hand, China’s investment, production, research, and technological opportunities can become an important resource for Ukraine to modernize its economy. Promising areas of Chinese investment include high technology, in particular, aviation, shipbuilding, bioengineering, the development of new materials, and more. Ukraine is interested in China’s experience in implementing a number of state programs in the field of innovation development of Chinese industrial enterprises. The support system for clusters, industrial parks, Free Economic Zones (FEZs), and technology parks can be recommended for introduction into Ukrainian legislation in the sphere of developing an innovation structure in Ukraine.

Condition of rural tourism in our country in the context of covid-19 pandemy epidemy

The article discusses the state of development of rural tourism in our country in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic epidemic, the organizational and legal framework and regions, the impact of Coronavirus on global GDP growth in 2021 and how the pandemic affected his business from Europe to Uzbekistan. According to Saparboy Jubaev, an analyst with a PhD in economics, the pandemic could have less of an impact on Central Asian republics than in developed European countries. Because their share of services in GDP is less. For example, in developed countries such as Italy, rural tourism is well developed. Therefore, their rate of decline will also be large.

The Effect of Economic Growth on Employment in GCC Countries

The objective of this research is to analyze the employment intensity of growth in six Gulf Cooperation Council countries between 1970 and 2017. To this end, a two-step econometric methodology is proposed. First, we estimate the time-varying employment intensity of growth using the time-varying parameters model based on the Kalman filter. Second, we identify the short and long-run determinants of the obtained employment intensity of growth using the Pooled Mean Group estimator. The analysis uncovers that elasticities range between 0.4 and 0.6 and has an increasing pattern over time. Findings reveal that in the long-run, the employment intensity is positively affected by trade liberalization, the share of services in GDP, the working-age population growth, and urbanization, while macroeconomic volatility has a negative impact. In the short-run, trade liberalization and natural resource rents exert adverse but weak effects on employment intensity. Based on these findings, some policy recommendations are drawn.JEL Codes - J23; O47; C32; C23

Crucial Differences Between Present Service Sector Structures Of Russia and Poland: Changes and Contribution to the Economy

During the period of planned economies in Russia and Poland, services were underestimated as a sector of economic activity. To some degree, this continues to be the case. In spite of the existence of market economies in Central and Eastern Europe for more than 25 years, Russia and Poland should be categorized differently in terms of economic and social development. Based on D. Bell’s and his followers’ (M. Castells, A. Toffler, J. Rifkin, P. Drucker) theory of post-industrial society and post-industrial economy, Poland can be classified as a post-industrial country, while Russia is still an industrial country in many aspects. This point of view is based on global statistics and cross-country comparisons. The following statistical data has been used as a source for this research: share of services in GDP by country, contribution (value added) of seven main types of services to the respective GDP of Russia, Poland and other selected countries, value added and governmental expenditures per capita of primary services in aforementioned economies. The main differences between the Russian and Polish service sectors are indicated. The cases of Russia and Poland are presented here to highlight the key common features of Central and Eastern European countries’ tertiary sectors.

INSTITUTIONAL QUALITY AND TAX REVENUE IN CÔTE D’IVOIRE: EVIDENCE FROM ARDL APPROACH

In this paper, we examine the main determinants of tax revenues in Cote d’Ivoire, paying attention to institutional factors and the informal economy. To do this, we apply the autoregressive distributed lag model developed by Pesaran et al. (2001) on annual data covering the period 1984-2016. The results show that the low quality of institutions and the high share of the informal economy are among the factors explaining the low mobilization of tax revenues in Cote d’Ivoire. The results also reveal that GDP per capita, official development assistance, the share of services in GDP, the distribution of income within the population and the education level of the population positively affect tax revenues. On the other hand, trade openness negatively affects tax revenues. Based on these results, the paper provides several recommendations that can help improve tax revenues in Cote d’Ivoire.

Factors of fertility ageing rate

The current demographic model of most developed countries is characterized by ageing and declining fertility. Despite the fact that this topic has been studied quite thoroughly, the question remains: what national indicators does the rate of ageing fertility depend on in different groups of countries? An analysis of some developed countries between 1990 and 2017 enables concluding that the dynamics of intensity of the first births over the age of 35 in the group of developed countries is negatively influenced by the dynamics of employment and the share of services in GDP, while the maternal age at first birth in the group of former socialist countries depends on the dynamics of the education indicator.

Tendencies of trade in transport services in V4 countries, EU28 and EU19 countries

Two important trends can be identified in the world economy. First, technological innovations are becoming an increasingly important contributor to economic well-being. Secondly, citizens are becoming more open and independent, and able to obtain information, products, and services worldwide. Rapid changes in technology reinforce trade motives and the consequences of integration into the world trade system. In this context, the importance of trade in services, the share of services in GDP and value added in individual economies are increasing. Imports and exports are among the basic foreign trade activities that enable us to obtain utility values from abroad or to supply them abroad. These activities reflect the advantages and disadvantages of individual economies. They also reflect government policy. The aim of this paper is to point out the state and basic trends in trade in transport services in relation to trade in services and trade in transport services. OECD 2018 statistics are used to identify the status and underlying trends in trade in services and their components.

The Kazakhstani entertainment industry’s development in the context of servitization of the world economy

The development of technologies has a decisive impact on the state of the service economy. Advanced technologies are the driver of the service economy. The service economy is focused on people’s needs, and a high rate of servitization is its main feature. Services contribute to the social orientation of the economy, raising the standard of living. In developed countries, the share of services in GDP exceeds 60-70%. The majority of highly qualified specialists are concentrated in the service sector. It applies to science, education, healthcare, telecommunications, IT, engineering services, financial and banking services, PR and marketing, and the entertainment industry. The level of development of the service economy indicates the level of the economy as a whole. Being part of the service economy, the global entertainment industry is a significant source of income for the entire world. Simultaneously, the Kazakhstani entertainment industry is recovering from the crisis and has clear tendencies to change the situation towards increasing demand from world markets. The study aims to analyze the potential of the Kazakhstani entertainment industry, which is part of the service economy. Secondary and primary information was collected. Quantitative and qualitative research was conducted in the form of surveys. When analyzing the state of the service economy, statistics from the World Bank were used. The study of the dynamics and structure of GDP in some countries made it possible to trace the structural changes taking place in the world economy under the influence of servitization processes.

Self-employment in Russia: state and potential for development

The article deals with self-employment as a new form of labor relations. It is noted that self-employment is a fairly broad concept that does not have a relevant assessment both in the existing legal acts and in the public consciousness. The present situation reduces the effectiveness of the state policy towards citizens who have decided to engage in their own activities, and does not allow society to understand the importance of the institution of self-employment for socio-economic development of the country. The authors prove that formation of self-employment is an objective process resulting from changes in the model of modern economy. For example, we observe growth in the share of services in GDP, increasing mobility of the labor market, large-scale introduction of innovation and digital technologies, new incentives and motives for labor, strengthening requirements to the level of competences of employees, the necessity to optimize production costs. The attention is mainly paid to the analysis of Russian labor market of self-employed. It is noted that despite the positive dynamics of indicators, the level of legal self-employment in our country is extremely low. It does not meet the requirements of national economy and the parameters adopted in developed countries. In order to promote entrepreneurial activities, reduce unemployment and informal employment, it is necessary to strengthen the state control. This will increase business activity and provide favorable atmosphere for the economic development. These measures should be aimed at establishing legal status of self-employed people, based on a multi-functional criterion, and at solving tactical and strategic tasks as well. The first group provides a complex of administrative, property, informational, financial support for the self-employed. The other provides the formation of a new economic environment in the country, which will foster interest in self-employment on a legal basis.

Does One Law Fit All? Cross-Country Evidence on Okun’s Law

This paper compares the performance of Okun’s Law in advanced and developing economies. On average, the Okun coefficient—which measures the short-run responsiveness of labor markets to output fluctuations—is about half as large in developing as in advanced countries. However, there is considerably heterogeneity across countries, with Okun’s Law fitting quite well for a number of developing countries. We have limited success in explaining the reasons for this heterogeneity. The mean unemployment rate and the share of services in GDP are associated with the Okun coefficient, whereas other factors such as indices of overall labor and product market flexibility do not appear to play a consistent role.