Seismic Risk Studies Research Articles

Influence of retrofitting in the seismic behaviour of precast reinforced concrete industrial buildings

Previous destructive earthquakes caused large economic losses as well as human losses. Seismic risk studies are of paramount importance to predict the impact of future earthquakes and support seismic risk mitigation policies. The present study presents a seismic risk assessment based on the cost and direct loss assessment of precast industrial buildings with different retrofitting levels in terms of horizontal strength. In this evaluation, a comparative analysis between the configurations of retrofitted buildings and the original building is performed. The effects of retrofitting solution strategies are first investigated in a single building. Then a study is carried out to assess which retrofit solutions level are most appropriate depending on the exposure and seismic risk. The results showed the use of bracing in the PRC building can improve seismic behaviour, with significant increases in horizontal strength. The cost of intervention is reduced, with a slight increase of less than 1% to almost 2% of the cost of the structure. From the derivation of seismic fragility functions for different retrofitting solutions level, the seismic risk analysis with dozens of existing PRC industrial buildings in Portugal points to a large reduction in economic losses as from retrofitted buildings, like an improvement of the seismic capacity of the buildings attributed to the retrofit systems considered. In general, among the different types of retrofit studied, there is an increase in the reduction of total economic losses, namely 49% when retrofitted with a 50% increase in horizontal strength, 58% when retrofitted with a 75% increase in horizontal strength and 64% for retrofitted with 100%.

IM-based seismic reliability assessment of the pre-code masonry building stock in metropolitan area of Lisbon

Earthquakes have a long history of causing catastrophic damage to communities, resulting in structural collapses, loss of life, and economic turmoil. To enable informed decision-making and reduce the impact of these events in earthquake-prone regions, seismic risk studies provide relevant information to support stakeholders in the implementation of effective risk-based policies. The present work addresses the seismic reliability of the pre-code masonry building stock in the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon, which is the region of Portugal that faces the highest seismic risk due to the coexistence of moderate to high seismic hazard and highest demographic-economic exposure. The adopted general framework combines several hazard studies developed for the region under investigation and a synthetic database of masonry buildings representative of the pre-code building stock in Lisbon. Through analytical–numerical probabilistic approaches, new second-order hazard solutions with structural dependency are derived for the mean annual frequency of limit-state exceedance, which can be integrated into national application documents for Eurocode 8. In light of these results, the reliability assessment of the building stock is conducted in several Local Administrative Units by means of an improved SAC/FEMA formulation. The study represents the first comprehensive investigation of its kind in this region, providing essential information to define appropriate target safety level for code calibration and support future risk studies.

Vs30 and depth to bedrock estimates from integrating HVSR measurements and geology-slope approach in the Oslo area, Norway

In order to estimate well-constrained seismic hazard and risk on local scales, the knowledge of site amplification factors is one of several important requirements. Seismic hazard studies on national or regional scales generally provide the level of earthquake shaking only at bedrock conditions, thereby avoiding the difficulties that are caused through local site effects. Oftentimes, local site conditions are not well understood or even non-existent. In this study we investigate an efficient and non-invasive methodology to derive the local average shear wave velocity in the uppermost 30 m of the ground (Vs30). The Vs30 value is a useful parameter to define soil classes and soil amplification used in seismic hazard assessment and to extend the knowledge of the site to include the depth to basement rock. At the level of the municipality of Oslo, there is currently no map available that describes the Vs30, and as such any seismic risk study is lacking potentially critical information on local site amplification. The new proposed methodology includes the use of existing well databases (with knowledge on minimum basement depth), topographic slope derived from Digital Elevation Models (as a proxy for both depth to basement and Vs30, integrated with geological maps) and near-surface Quaternary geological maps. The Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR) method and a statistics-based geological mapping tool (COHIBA) are used to integrate the various sources of data estimates. Finally, we demonstrate our new methodology and workflow with data from three different regions within the Oslo municipality and propose an approach to conduct cost-efficient mapping for seismic site amplification on a general municipality scale.

Understanding seismicity and seismotectonics in a stable continental region (NW Iberian Peninsula): Implications for the nature of intraplate seismicity

Despite that earthquakes in stable continental regions (SCR) often cause more damage than interplate seismicity, they remain poorly understood. This is mainly because of the lower rate of intraplate seismicity and because of its different behaviour compared to the better-known seismicity at the plate boundary. Understand the characteristics of the intraplate seismicity is a challenge for the seismic risk studies. We study and characterise an SCR (NW Iberian Peninsula), which not only registers moderate instrumental intraplate seismicity, but also important historic seismicity and paleoseismic activity. To tackle some of the difficulties posed by intraplate seismicity, we analyse a wide and multidisciplinary data set (e.g., geological structures, seismicity, focal mechanisms, and geophysical data). Seismicity in this region is not associated with an old rift, but with inherited faults widely distributed throughout the region with a great variety of orientations. The reactivation kinematics of these faults are coherent with the current regional stresses. Instrumental seismicity is not associated with the large active faults nor with crustal limits. Seismicity is mainly clustered in swarms and sequences. Although seismic swarms present lower magnitudes, they are the most common. Based on swarms' characteristics (high b-values, upward spatiotemporal migration), reported mantellic CO2 in some thermal springs, and the reactivation of inherited steeply-dipping faults, we propose the migration of deep fluids through steeply-dipping fractured areas as the cause of the intraplate seismicity. These processes could increase the pore pressure and decrease the stresses necessary for the fault rupture in a fault-valve behaviour. In general, in intraplate context, the important control in the seismicity of the inherited fault systems favourable oriented under the current stress tensor is observed, and also the need for mechanisms that can decrease the effective stress for the fault ruptures. Mechanisms as hydrothermal fluids in arterial faults with fault-valve processes has been identified as an effective driver of intraplate seismicity, playing an important role in stability of tectonic faults. The large number and variety of these faults, that share the low strain rates in intraplate polyorogenic context, may explain the different characteristics of these intraplate regions compared with the interplate regions, as the “unanticipated” behaviour, variety of kinematics, the long quiescence periods without seismicity associated and erosion obliterating their morphotectonic expression.

A methodology to assess and select seismic fragility curves: Application to the case of Costa Rica

Different seismic risk studies have been carried out in the Central American region to quantify the human and economic losses caused by seismic events. The appropriate use of seismic fragility curves (FCs) allows a better approximation of the level of performance of a structural system in the face of seismic hazards. In this respect, an inadequate selection of FCs can lead to a notably unreliable estimation of damages and losses. This research contributes a methodology for assessing and selecting FCs for seismic risk studies from a catalog of existing proposals available in the literature. The methodology has been applied to the case study of Costa Rica, encompassing a bibliographic search, meetings with Central American experts, and the compilation of a catalog with the FCs used in different vulnerability projects. The conclusion drawn is that FCs with very different probabilities of damage are being used in the diverse vulnerability projects for buildings with the same attributes. Moreover, the proposed methodology allows knowing the reliability level of the FCs obtained depending on which class the curve was classified into based on its score. Therefore, it allows the adequacy and uncertainty related to the selected FCs to be established, a subject that researchers should consider in seismic vulnerability and risk studies.

Residential building stock in Serbia: classification and vulnerability for seismic risk studies

Regional seismic risk assessment is necessary for designing effective seismic risk mitigation measures. In general, such risk assessment studies consist of three components: hazard, vulnerability, and exposure modelling. This paper lays the foundations for regional seismic risk assessment of the residential building stock in Serbia and addresses each of the three seismic risk assessment components, either by reviewing the existing or proposing novel models. First, a review of seismic hazard models and seismic design codes used in Serbia in the past 70 years was presented. Next, an overview of Serbia’s population metrics and historical development of Serbian’s residential building stock was presented to provide the context for the exposure model. Furthermore, the paper proposed a novel building classification for Serbia's residential building stock, which is based on the existing building taxonomies, but it has been adapted to account for the local building characteristics. Building damage patterns reported in past earthquakes in Serbia and neighbouring countries were reviewed as a basis for damage classification pertaining to building typologies included in the proposed classification. Finally, the results of a preliminary vulnerability model were presented in the form of expert-based fragility functions derived for buildings typical of Serbia's residential building stock.

Classifying buildings according to seismic vulnerability using Cluster-ANN techniques: application to the city of Murcia, Spain

The seismic vulnerability of a city is a degree of its intrinsic susceptibility or predisposition to sustain damage or losses stemming from seismic events. In terms of physical vulnerability, one of the most important factors for assessing seismic risk, especially, for estimating losses, is the exposure of structures, particularly those structures intended for residential use. The present article outlines a methodology for classifying residential buildings based on the structural and non-structural components that ultimately determine the building typology and control the seismic performance. The proposed methodology is divided into three steps: first, spatial data are analysed using an official database that is supplemented by remote field work to verify, validate, and identify construction typologies and urban modifiers after incorporating the new observable data. During the second step, machine learning techniques based on Two-Step cluster analysis and neural networks are used to identify building typologies, using a multilayer perceptron to assess the representativeness of the building typologies identified. Finally, each building typology is defined, a vulnerability assessment is carried out, and vulnerability classes are ranked based on the macroseismic scale. The above-mentioned steps were applied to 7631 residential buildings in the city of Murcia, Spain. The methodology is scalable and may be automated, so it may be replicated in other urban areas with similar characteristics or adapted to different urban settings. This may help save time and reduce the cost of carrying out seismic risk studies, providing valuable information for both civil protection and regional and local governments.

Fragility curve development of highway bridges using probabilistic evaluation (case study: Tehran City)

Seismic fragility analysis of bridges can be used to identify the probability of different damage states of bridges under earthquake hazards. This study aims to generate the fragility curve of highway bridges in Tehran, Iran, where these curves are not provided yet. To derive new fragility curves, the fragility curve of highway bridges from studies all around the world has been classified into different categories, based on their structural designs, bridge materials, country, and their analytical methods. A decision-tree analysis has been used to determine new fragility curves. The accuracy of these new curves was then assessed using a case study bridge and incremental dynamic analysis. The assessment analysis indicates that newly developed fragility curves for Tehran city have reasonable accuracy. The average difference between the derived fragility curve by the curves determined using Incremental Dynamic Analysis was acceptable. These new fragility curves helped to identify bridges throughout the Tehran city highways with higher seismic vulnerability. These can also be used for risk assessment and reducing seismic risk studies and future urban planning.

Microtremor array observation in Southern Part of the Bandung basin: deep 1d s-wave velocity structure

Site amplification factor become crucial in seismic hazard microzonation, which depends on local geological condition, therefore identification of bedrock depth is very important related to sediment thickness. One of the Geophysical method that can be applied for subsurface investigation is microtremor array survey method (MAM). This method doesn’t require seismic source, so it is very possible to be applied in the urban area. Bandung basin is a research project for seismic hazard and risk study, where most of this area covered by high population and settlements that becomes the obstacle in this field survey. Geologically, Bandung basin consists of volcanic rock and floodplain, and we can find outcrop of Tertiary rock in some parts the basin. Seismicity in Bandung basin is very active because there are many seismic sources around it, such as shallow crustal and megathrust segment in the southern part. The microtremor array survey was conducted in Southern basin at 3 sites observation represent shallow and deep bedrock depth by using triangular array in shape. The result shows the bedrock depth in BB12 is 139 m, BB13 is 211 m and BB14 is 192 m. This condition represents the feature of bedrock position in Southern Bandung basin.

A note on peak inelastic displacement as a proxy for structural damage in seismic sequences

Structural reliability assessment for a building that may experience damage accumulation during a seismic sequence can play an important role in decision making for post-earthquake repair operations or demolition and rebuilding. This typically requires the integration of the aftershock ground motion hazard at the site with the probabilistic description of the damaged building's capacity to withstand the shaking of the seismic sequence. This is usually quantified as the conditional probability that the structure, starting from a specific damage state and for given shaking intensity, will reach a more severe one. In sequence-based seismic risk studies, an analytically-derived estimate of the peak inelastic displacement is often used as a proxy for structural damage. This paper investigates the issues behind this choice and the ability of inelastic displacement demand to adequately describe structural damage due to a seismic sequence, when compared with more direct metrics of damage, such as stiffness and strength degradation. To reach this objective, a series of inelastic single-degree-of-freedom systems, having different natural period, backbones and post-elastic behavior, were subjected to sequential dynamic analysis, while considering a series of arbitrarily chosen damage states, conventionally defined by displacement demand thresholds. The investigation showed that maintaining the attractive simplicity of deformation-based damage proxies in sequence-based risk analysis, can lead to some counterintuitive representations of seismic vulnerability. Some results suggest that such problems could be alleviated if one were to consider some dependence of damage state transition thresholds on the current state of the structure.

Using heritage building registers to characterise unreinforced masonry buildings of Brisbane, Australia

ABSTRACT Worldwide, unreinforced masonry (URM) buildings are present in abundance with many holding cultural and heritage value. URM buildings have a known history of poor performance during past earthquakes because of the weak tensile properties and lack of mechanical connections between elements. Information about the construction of URM buildings for a region is important because it can help engineers and policy makers to perform seismic assessment, risk and loss studies. In this regard, this study includes a characterisation of the heritage URM buildings in Brisbane City, Australia, and its surrounding suburbs using the Queensland Heritage Register (QHR). The QHR includes a total of 1775 heritage sites, of which 323 are identified as URM buildings in Brisbane City and surrounding suburbs. The studied building characteristics obtained from QHR included the architectural styles, construction year, function/use, number of storeys, roof material and load-bearing wall materials. Other features such as roof types (shapes), plan geometry, isolated or interconnected buildings, verandas and openings, and finally the presence of seismic hazards such as gable-end walls, chimneys, and parapets have been obtained using online 3D maps. It was concluded that heritage registers in combination with online digital resources can be successfully utilised to characterise URM buildings.

Asymptotic behavior of seismic hazard curves

Hazard curves from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) are plots of the rate of earthquakes exceeding ground motion intensity values vs such threshold values, for a site of interest. In classical PSHA, these curves can be transformed to provide the probability of exceedance of ground motion intensity values in any time interval, utilizing the properties of the homogeneous Poisson process (HPP). In turn, these probability curves can be seen as the plot of the complementary cumulative distribution function of the maximum intensity observed, at the site, in the time interval of interest. One consequence of the HPP framework, within which PSHA is developed, is that, for large time intervals, it can be argued that these curves could asymptotically lead to a probabilistic model for extreme value (EV) random variables. This is discussed, with a simple engineering approach, in this short note, where it is found – via case studies – that exceedance hazard curves seem to converge towards an EV distribution (i.e., the EV type II or Fréchet), with a pace that is impacted by the discontinuity inherent to the curves. It is also seen that other common models, typically used to provide an analytical format to probabilistic curves, do not show the same level of convergence. Besides providing further insights on the results of PSHA, this study can possibly be useful for those cases where a closed-form equation for the hazard curve could be needed, such as reliability-based calibration of building codes, or seismic risk studies involving seismic hazard approximation/extrapolation.

Evaluation of the Predictive Performance of Regional and Global Ground Motion Predictive Equations for Shallow Active Regions in Pakistan

Ground motion prediction equations are a key element of seismic hazard assessments. Pakistan lacks a robust ground motion prediction equation specifically developed using a Pakistan seismic ground motion databank. In this study, performance assessment of the ground motion prediction equations for usage in seismic hazard and risk studies in Pakistan, a seismically highly active region, is performed. In this study, an evaluation of the global ground motion prediction equations developed for the shallow active regions is carried out based on a databank of strong ground motion that was compiled in this study. Thirteen ground motion prediction equations were considered applicable, and their goodness of fit was evaluated using the databank of 147 peak ground acceleration of 27 shallow earthquakes in Pakistan. Residual analysis and three goodness of fit procedures were implemented in the evaluation of the equations. The results of this study suggest that global ground motion prediction equations can be applicable in the shallow active regions of Pakistan. These equations were developed based on data from Europe and the Middle East. Next Generation Attenuation West-2 equations were also applicable, but they did not perform as well as the European and Middle Eastern databank-derived equations. A total of four global equations were applicable in Pakistan. The best performing equation in this study should be applied with the highest weight, and the others should be applied with small weights on the logic tree to perform better. These equations can be employed in seismic hazard and risk assessment studies for disaster risk mitigation measures.

Typological characterisation of vintage unreinforced masonry buildings of Queensland, Australia

Characterisation of buildings is critical for the rapid assessment and seismic loss estimation of buildings after an earthquake event. This paper presents a literature review on the characterisation of unreinforced masonry (URM) buildings followed by a typological study of the building stock in Queensland, Australia. The literature review showed that characterisation studies are aimed at cataloguing and developing inventories of buildings for the purpose of seismic vulnerability and risk assessment, and behaviour-influencing parameters are often used as a basis for building classification. Guided by the literature review, a field study was conducted to document important features of vintage (pre-1940) URM buildings that can influence their behaviour during an earthquake. The surveyed aspects included the construction year, number of storeys, roof type, irregularities in plan, isolated or inter-connected buildings, overall dimensions of the buildings, size and shape of windows, façade opening ratio, presence of chimneys, and the style of parapets. Importantly, it was found that certain parapet typologies are prevalent, but that their seismic behaviour is currently unknown. A few such typologies were recommended for future seismic assessment studies. This study can serve as a basis for conducting seismic assessment risk and vulnerability studies in the future.

The importance of indirect losses in the seismic risk assessment of industrial buildings – An application to precast RC buildings in Portugal

Observations from past destructive earthquakes indicate that indirect economic losses can greatly exceed the direct economic losses. However, the influence of indirect losses is often neglected in seismic risk studies due to the complexity associated with their evaluation, as well as the fact that direct losses tend to gather public attention due to human losses and the visual impact of structural damage. This issue is particularly evident in the assessment of indirect losses linked to industrial activities, which can represent a significant portion of the economy. The present study presents a comprehensive framework for the assessment of indirect economic losses based on the impact of business interruption and interdependency between the different economic sectors. The application of the proposed model to precast reinforced concrete buildings constitutes the first seismic risk study of this typology in Portugal, and highlights the critical need to pursue risk mitigation measures to address both the potential direct and indirect effects in the Portuguese economy.

Reconstructing a 3D model from geophysical data for local amplification modelling: The study case of the upper Rhone valley, Switzerland

The geometry of three-dimensional subsurface structures plays an important role in determining local seismic site effects as in the case of alpine valleys. Detailed knowledge of these structures is fundamental in seismic hazard and risk studies. In this study we investigate an area in the upper Rhone valley around Visp, in the southwestern part of Switzerland. A large dataset of geological and geophysical data, consisting of borehole logs, microtremor horizontal to vertical spectral ratios and shear-wave velocity measurements, was compiled to build a detailed 3D model of the subsurface. By combining fundamental frequency information from noise recordings and shear-wave velocity profiles, three main geophysical discontinuities were identified and their physical properties constrained through a stepwise process. First, the bedrock depth was estimated; in a second step a generic velocity model was defined and finally, combining all the available geological and geophysical information, we developed a 3D geophysical model. The model was compared with a local 3D geological model and a model derived from gravimetric data. The study area is a complex alpine valley where 2D/3D wave propagation phenomena occur. In such case a purely 1D response assumption is considered to be invalid. In order to test the 3D model, we modelled different ambient-vibration wave fields and compared observed and synthetic H/V spectral ratios. We slightly modified our 3D geophysical model in some areas based on this comparison. Finally, a good match between simulated and empirical spectral ratios corroborated the model. The results suggest that the use of ambient vibration techniques are a powerful and cost-effective tools to reconstruct three-dimensional models of the subsurface. Finally, we used the 3D model to predict amplification of earthquake ground motion in the basin. Again, the match between observed and modelled amplification at the locations of the seismic stations is good. This allows us to map amplification inside the study area. • A detailed 3D model of the subsurface in Visp (Switzerland) is build using geophysical and geological data. • Three main geophysical discontinuities were identified and their physical properties constrained through a stepwise process. • Ambient-vibrations wave field is modelled and comparison between observed and synthetic H/V spectral ratios is made. • The 3D model is used to predict amplification of earthquake ground motion in the basin.

Seismic Vulnerability of a Slender Stalagmite

ABSTRACT Seismic vulnerability of speleothems may serve long-term seismic risk studies. For this reason, the seismic response of stalagmite is computed using a robust FEM model calibrated from free vibration records by Hilbert–Huang modal extraction. It is demonstrated that the stalagmite vibrations consist of pairs of closely coupled flexural natural modes with a negligible role of vertical excitations. The location of the breaking point of the stalagmite is a result of a balance between the overturning bending moment and variations of horizontal cross-sections with height. Safety margins are investigated, and the ultimate peak velocity of excitations equaling 3.4 mm/s is estimated.

Seismic risk assessments for real estate portfolios: Impact of engineering investigation on quality of seismic risk studies

Seismic risk evaluation studies for real estate portfolios conducted by technical professionals (often Civil and Structural Engineers) have become increasingly desirable and common in financial decisions. In this article, we develop a series of risk measures and ratings based on common outcomes from probabilistic portfolio seismic risk assessments. We first define two portfolio risk metrics: Portfolio Expected Loss (PELα) and Portfolio Upper Loss (PULα), where “α” is the annual exceedance probability, or the corresponding return period (“1/α”). PULα/PELα ratio characterizes the uncertainty in estimated portfolio risks which results from the uncertainty in seismic performance of the individual assets. Three uncertainty levels are defined, namely, low, medium, and high, based on the PULα/PELα. We then develop an asset risk metric, called Tail Contribution Index (TCIα), that characterizes the contribution of individual assets to the portfolio losses that fall within the high-consequence “tail” of the portfolio loss distribution. To describe the overall engineering efforts of a portfolio seismic risk study, we develop a portfolio risk metric, called Portfolio Level of Investigation (PLIα), that characterizes the effective level of engineering investigation. Three investigation levels are defined: low ( desktop), medium ( semi-engineered), and high ( engineered), based on the PLIα. Finally, based on the combination of uncertainty level and investigation level, we develop a rating scheme by which the quality (Qα) of a portfolio seismic risk study is characterized. Five quality levels are defined: very poor, poor, fair, good, and very good. These risk indices and ratings can help stakeholders and technical professionals better diagnose and communicate portfolio seismic risks, scope adequate studies, effectively utilize valuable resources, and base financial decisions on risk assessment results that have the desired reliability.

Accessing European Strong-Motion Data: An Update on ORFEUS Coordinated Services

AbstractStrong ground motion records and free open access to strong-motion data repositories are fundamental inputs to seismology, engineering seismology, soil dynamics, and earthquake engineering science and practice. This article presents the current status and outlook of the Observatories and Research Facilities for European Seismology (ORFEUS) coordinated strong-motion seismology services, namely the rapid raw strong-motion (RRSM) and the engineering strong-motion (ESM) databases and associated web interfaces and webservices. We compare and discuss the role and use of these two systems using the Mw 6.5 Norcia (Central Italy) earthquake that occurred on 30 October 2016 as an example of a well-recorded earthquake that triggered major interest in the seismological and earthquake engineering communities. The RRSM is a fully automated system for rapid dissemination of earthquake shaking information, whereas the ESM provides quality-checked, manually processed waveforms and reviewed earthquake information. The RRSM uses only data from the European Integrated Waveform Data Archive, whereas the ESM also includes offline data from other sources, such as the ITalian ACcelerometric Archive (ITACA). Advanced software tools are also included in the ESM to allow users to process strong-motion data and to select ground-motion waveform sets for seismic structural analyses. The RRSM and ESM are complementary services designed for a variety of possible stakeholders, ranging from scientists to the educated general public. The RRSM and ESM are developed, organized, and reviewed by selected members of the seismological community in Europe, including strong-motion data providers and expert users. Global access and usage of the data is encouraged. The ESM is presently the reference database for harmonized seismic hazard and risk studies in Europe. ORFEUS strong-motion data are open, “Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable,” and accompanied by licensing information. The users are encouraged to properly cite the data providers, using the digital object identifiers of the seismic networks.

Introducing loss transfer functions to model seismic financial loss: A case study of Iran

Vulnerability curves in seismic risk studies, represent the relation between mean damage or loss ratio and some earthquake intensity parameter(s). Mostly, these curves are developed based on observed damage ratios caused by actual events or analytic evaluation of seismic performance of different building typologies. Exclusively employing these models to estimate the financial loss by considering the damage ratios as the economic loss ratios, disregards the fact that beyond some physical damage levels the structures becomes practically irreparable and a total loss must be assumed accordingly. Moreover, the incurred economic loss to the asset and the repair cost are not differentiable. In this paper, a method is introduced in order to convert the physical damage ratio into - economic loss considering the definitions of physical damage states and total loss thresholds. Using these curves and considering the physical vulnerability functions and their variations, the economic vulnerability curves are developed. As a case study for model implementation, the seismic loss curves and maps are obtained using the OpenQuake platform for the residential building stock of Iran, simulating 100,000 years of events. The findings reveal an average annual damage of 9.9 million square meters requiring US$ 2.7 billion equivalent to 0.57% of total assets value, to repair or to reconstruct the damaged buildings to return to the status quo ante and a total of US$ 3.3 billion including the betterment costs. The findings of this kind imply the significance and the versatility of employing the loss transfer functions to various incurred costs by such disastrous events.