AbstractPopulations occurring at the limit of a species' altitudinal distribution undergo strong environmental filtering. Rapid climate change intensifies this process, impacting ecological responses of populations. Understanding the effects of climate change, especially in the early stages of plant development, has become essential to predict vulnerability to extinction. However, few studies have explored initial establishment strategies of plant populations at the limit of their distribution in the face of global warming. We tested the effects of increasing temperatures on germination performance and on initial seedling establishment on two populations of Euterpe edulis, a palm tree widely distributed in the Atlantic Forest between 0 and 1400 m altitude. The tests were conducted in a laboratory, where the seeds were exposed to three conditions for 90 days: control at 25°C, and two treatments at higher temperatures (35 and 40°C). Germination percentage was not affected by population, seed size class or treatments. Average time for germination only increased in the Montane Forest population in the most extreme treatment, while in the sea level Restinga population, time for germination was affected by a small temperature increase. Mortality percentage in the Restinga population was similar in the post‐germination phase and in the temperature treatments. We concluded that E. edulis populations located at their lower altitudinal limit are closer to the species thermal limit, thus being more vulnerable to temperature increase than populations at the upper limit of the species' altitudinal distribution.