Regional Security Research Articles

Role of indirect groundwater recharge using recycled water in promoting food security in semi-arid regions

Role of indirect groundwater recharge using recycled water in promoting food security in semi-arid regions

The food security risks in the Yangtze River Delta of China associated with water scarcity, grain production, and grain trade

Grain production consumes a large amount of water and is affected by the degree of water scarcity and participation in the grain trade in various regions. The grain trade has changed the food security risks in regions where grain exports and imports. Therefore, it is crucial to consider regional water scarcity to understand food security risks from the grain trade network. Here, we construct a new framework for measuring regional food security risks associated with water scarcity, grain production, and grain trade based on a cross-city grain trade network combined with virtual water flows to evaluate the regional food security risks in the Yangtze River Delta region (YRD) of China in 2017. The results show that under the current domestic grain trade pattern in China, the YRD and its four provincial-level administrative regions are in a net grain import state. The grain trade within the YRD is concentrated in exports from the two major grain-producing areas of Anhui and Jiangsu to Zhejiang and Shanghai, especially from northern Jiangsu to southeastern Zhejiang. The net import results of virtual blue water in most cities indicate that the YRD has shifted its water resource pressure to other grain exporting regions in China, with Shanghai and Zhejiang being the greatest beneficiaries. Extreme risk only exists in Shanghai, and severe and moderate risks are concentrated in Jiangsu. The current grain trade has reduced the overall food security risk in the YRD by 1.3 % but increased the risks in Shanghai and Zhejiang by 2.1 % and 0.8 % respectively. This study highlights the potential risks that excessive production of food in water-scarce areas in the grain trade system may bring to a stable food supply, providing useful information for a comprehensive understanding of the food and water security situation and for future trade-offs.

Research on spatial patterns of soil erosion in wind erosion region based on the revised wind erosion equation and partial least squares regression

Understanding the complex influencing factors of soil erosion is critical for maintaining regional ecological security. The revised wind erosion equation (RWEQ) and partial least squares regression (PLSR) model were used to reveal the primary factors affecting soil erosion. Based on the results of the RWEQ model, the wind erosion area was 8,439.3 km2 in 2018, accounting for 54.3% of the total planning area, and mild erosion, moderate erosion, intense erosion, very intense erosion, and fierce erosion accounted for 18.22%, 11.43%, 11.78%, 10.16%, and 2.74% of the total planning area, respectively. Based on the results of the PLSR model, the results indicate that the proportion of mining land, meteorological indicators, and mean square deviation of slope difference were positively correlated with the soil erosion area, intensity, and severity, respectively. The proportion of grassland and forest land was negatively correlated with the soil erosion area, intensity, and severity. The mean square deviation of slope difference, the mean square deviation of difference in elevation, and the proportion of urban land use contributed the most to the soil erosion severity index, with variable importance in projection (VIP) scores of 1.55, 1.44 and 1.43, respectively. The mean square deviation of slope difference, the proportion of urban land, and the mean square deviation of difference in elevation contributed the most to the soil erosion area, with VIP scores of 1.53, 1.26 and 1.24, respectively. The results provide new insights into wind erosion and the influences of weather conditions and human influences, which can guide regional soil and water conservation planning in wind erosion regions.

Identification of spatial protection and restoration priorities for ecological security pattern in a rapidly urbanized region: A case study in the Chengdu–Chongqing economic Circle, China

The continuous expansion of modern cities not only leads to ecological degradation but also seriously threatens regional ecological security and sustainable development. The construction of ecological security patterns (ESPs) has emerged as a significant approach to alleviate or even solve the conflict between regional development and ecological protection. The Chengdu–Chongqing Economic Circle (CCEC) represents the core area of regional economic development strategy in western China, characterized by rapid economic growth from 2000 to 2020. This study integrates assessments of ecosystem services importance, eco-environmental sensitivity and landscape connectivity; uses circuit theory and hydrological analysis to establish a research framework for the spatiotemporal evolution of regional ESP; and develops an optimized ESP combined with the Major Function Oriented Zone. The results indicate that urban expansion significantly impacted the ESP of the CCEC between 2000 and 2020. The fragmentation and merging of ecological sources occurred simultaneously, the number of patches reduced by 28.13% from 64 to 46. The early ecological security network was compromised, leading to the disappearance or elongation of some ecological corridors. The number of ecological corridors decreased by 36.03% from 136 to 87; the total length was reduced by 29.92% from 7500.57 km to 5256.28 km. Urgent optimization of the ESP is needed, reducing the number of key ecological protection areas by 50% from 106 to 53 while increasing priority restoration areas by 13.51% from 37 to 42. The study also reveals the insufficiency of the current Major Function Oriented Zone in protecting linear corridors, necessitating focused attention on the protection and restoration of ecological sources and surrounding corridors in important development zones. Additionally, a spatial optimization strategy of "one shelter, two cores, and three regions" is proposed to enhance regional ecosystem stability and connectivity. The aim was to strike a balance between ecological protection and food security by recommending an ecological corridor width range of 30∼100 m. These research findings offer scientific guidance for ecological space protection and restoration in the CCEC, contributing to the enhancement of both scientific and rational ecological planning in rapidly urbanizing areas.

Подходы к выбору индикаторов региональной бюджетной безопасности (на примере арктических регионов России)

The article deals with the approach to selection of regional budget security indicators in order to develop a system of parameters to assess the regional budget security. The approach is based on the principle of identifying the interests of economic agents. The satisfaction level of regional authorities, economic entities, and population is considered as a budget security indicator. The express analysis based on the materials from the Arctic regions of Russia indicated an imbalance of interests of economic agents, which is further confirmed by the decline in regional and population welfare due to reduction in regional product volume redistributed through budgets and by the decrease in businesses financial results in context of the changing world economy conditions. Balance of economic interests will be achieved by the increase in budget revenues and per capita incomes.

Spatial-temporal characterization of cropland abandonment and its driving mechanisms in the Karst Plateau in Eastern Yunnan, China, 2001-2020.

The karst plateau is dominated by mountainous and hilly landforms, with low mechanization level of cropland, high difficulty of cultivation, and obvious phenomenon of cropland abandonment, which threatens regional food security. This study aims to analyze the spatial-temporal variation and its driving mechanisms of abandoned cropland in the Karst Plateau in Eastern Yunnan, China (KPEYC) between 2001 and 2020. To achieve this goal, 18 key factors from population, economic environment, cropland attributes, and farming conditions are selected. Moreover, correlation analysis, geodetector, and regression analysis methods are applied from three perspectives: temporal change, spatial distribution and spatial-temporal change. The results show that: (i) The cropland abandonment rate (CAR) in the KPEYC shows a fluctuating trend, with an average value of 9.78%, and the spatial distribution shows a pattern of "high in the center and low in the south and north". (ii) From the perspective of temporal change, gross value of agricultural production, and gross value of industrial production have the largest correlation coefficients with CAR. (iii) The explanatory power of gross tertiary industrial production, gross value of industrial production, followed by soil thickness. (iv) Gross value of agricultural production, and gross tertiary industrial production are the core driving forces for the spatial-temporal change of CAR. The higher the gross value of agricultural production and gross tertiary industrial production, the lower the CAR. elevation, soil thickness, and traffic mileage are the main driving factors for the spatial-temporal change of CAR. The study indicates that economic factors are decisive for cropland abandonment in the KPEYC. Based on the results, this study can provide decision-making support for local prevention and control of cropland abandonment, and the local community needs to promote land transfer and concentration and local urbanization according to local conditions, improve agricultural policies, improve farming conditions, etc. in order to increase farmers' enthusiasm for production, promote the rational use of cropland, and solidly push forward ecological restoration and management, optimize ecological spatial patterns, manage serious areas of rocky desertification, and appropriately alleviate the contradiction between people and land.

Determination of the role and factors of technopolis development in the economic security of the depressed regions

Purpose: is to develop the integrated approach to assessing and determining the role and factors of technopolis development in the context of improving economic security of the depressed region.Methods: to analyze the current state of technopolis development in the Russian Federation, the comprehensive multi-component methodological approach was developed, including qualitative and quantitative analysis, as well as statistical methods of data interpretation. This approach was applied to assess the technopolis development of 14 science cities in Russia, the results of which were presented in the form of the composite index heat map. The source of initial data is Rosstat.Results:the study analyzed the evolution of the technopolis concept from the late 19th century to the present. This made it possible to identify the key factors influencing the transformation of scientific and innovation ecosystems. In particular, it was found that modern technopolises in Russia are often the result of renaming or transformation of existing science cities. In the context of economic security of the depressed regions, the factors influencing technopolis development were analyzed. Special attention was paid to the science city of Biysk, located in the largest depressive region of the country – Altai Krai.Conclusions and Relevance: the study showed that technopolises can act as catalysts of economic revival of the depressed regions. However, it also revealed the risks of creating socio-economic imbalances, which indicates the need for a differentiated approach when implementing technopolis projects in the such regions. The results of the study can be used to develop strategies for the management and development of technopolises, as well as to improve the economic security of the depressed regions. The main directions of further research may include analyzing the relationship between technopolis development and economic security, as well as the development of specific management and financing mechanisms.

National Food Policies and Food Security in Kenya's Arid and Semi-Arid Lands

Food insecurity remains a persistent challenge in Kenya's Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs) due to a combination of frequent climate shocks such as droughts, floods and livestock diseases. These extremes disrupt traditional ways of life and devastate crops and livestock, leaving communities with little to no food. This paper examined the effect of national food policies and strategies on food security in these fragile regions, specifically focusing on initiatives designed to address the recurring problem. The arguments of the decentralization and institutional capacity theories were used to guide the analysis. Methodologically, the study employed a descriptive survey research design to inform data collection and analysis. The research established that despite government interventions, food insecurity remains prevalent in ASAL regions. The causes of this insecurity are multifaceted, encompassing factors such as climate variability, restricted access to resources and socio-economic disparities. The paper recommends a review of national food policies targeting ASALs to align them with the drivers of food insecurity. The review should include community engagement and stakeholder collaboration to attain effective and sustainable solutions.

Unravelling the complexities of wetland agriculture, climate change, and coping mechanisms: an integrative review using economics and satellite approaches

AbstractThe flash flood-affected wetland region of Bangladesh contributes around 20–25% of the annual Boro rice production, which is vital for local, regional, and national food security. Considering the crucial significance of Boro rice and the growing susceptibility of wetland regions to flash floods and climate change, it is imperative to investigate viable approaches and adaptation methods to reduce the adverse effects on agricultural output. This review study investigated the relationships between wetlands, climate change, and coping mechanisms while incorporating economic and advanced satellite remote sensing approaches. Through a comprehensive analysis of flash flood impacts on Boro rice yield using satellite remote sensing technique, the findings revealed significant adverse effects on the vegetative reproduction of Boro rice in the study areas. Notably, flash floods in 2017 exhibited more pronounced impacts than other years (2018 and 2019), underscoring the urgency for effective and integrated coping strategies to ensure sustainable agricultural production. Consequently, the study identified and discussed probable coping strategies, including changes in cropping patterns through land suitability assessment, evaluating vulnerable areas through vulnerability mapping, analyzing yield forecasting models, and introducing a damage-based crop insurance approach to mitigate farmers’ losses. These probable adaptation strategies will offer viable solutions to address the recurrent issue of flash floods and safeguard sustainable agricultural production in the wetland areas of Bangladesh. Considering the current situation, climate change issues and probable alternative coping strategies are crucial for developing a resilient agricultural system in light of flash floods, ensuring the long-term viability of wetland agriculture. The study outcomes provide valuable insights for policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders in wetland agricultural planning and management to develop proper and long-term sustainable adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Finland's Strategic Shift: A New Chapter with NATO Membership

This paper delves into Finland's potential accession to NATO, marking a significant departure from its longstanding policy of military non-alignment. As geopolitical dynamics in the Baltic region undergo profound changes, Finland's consideration of NATO membership carries far-reaching implications for regional security and global geopolitics. Finland responded to Russian aggressiveness by joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to counteract Russia�s security threats in the region. The abstract explores the historical context of Finland's neutrality, the evolving security landscape, and the factors driving the nation towards reevaluating its defense posture. Using the research method of critical content analysis and in-depth interview with military and defense and security analyst Rahakundini, the potential impact on NATO, Russia's response, and the broader implications for the delicate balance of power in Northern Europe. The proposed NATO membership signals a strategic recalibration for Finland, with ramifications extending beyond national borders, shaping the geopolitical narrative in an ever-evolving international arena.

Risk Assessment of Compound Dry–Hot Events for Maize in Liaoning Province

Extreme climates can result in marked damage to crop yields and threaten regional and global food security. Maize is a major grain crop in Liaoning Province which is severely affected by dry and hot weather events. This study was based on the maize yield and daily meteorological data from various meteorological stations in Liaoning Province from 2000 to 2020. We calculated the standardized dry and hot index and constructed a method for estimating the maize yield reduction risk under compound dry–hot events (CDHE) in Liaoning Province by combining the coefficient of variation in maize yield reduction, yield loss risk index, and the frequency of CDHE during yield reduction. The results showed that the high-risk area for the occurrence of CDHE in maize was Chaoyang City, located in the western part of Liaoning Province. Cities in the low-risk area accounted for approximately 64.3% of the total number of cities in Liaoning Province, mainly in the central and northern parts of Liaoning Province. This study emphasizes the impact of CDHE on agricultural production and provides an index for assessing the risk of CDHE on maize production.

Analysis of sensitive clay landslide mechanism and impact pipeline bearing characteristics considering spatial variability

Landslides caused by the progressive failure of sensitive clay slopes may cause substantial economic losses and environmental pollution to pipelines. This study utilizes the Karhunen-Loève (K-L) expansion method, the coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian (CEL) method, and the Monte Carlo method to model the large deformation behaviour of slopes with spatial variability. The proposed RCEL-MC framework for joint analysis of extensive deformation-probability statistics of landslide impact on pipelines confirms that the spatial variability clay slope instability failure mechanism, considering the soil softening effect under earthquake action, aligns more closely with real-world scenarios. Furthermore, based on the statistical failure probability of pipelines impacted by landslides, a sensitive clay slope pipeline safety design method is suggested. The research highlights that the random field parameters significantly influence the load-bearing characteristics of pipelines affected by spatially variable slope progressive failure landslides. The uncertainty surrounding the maximum impact force on pipelines notably increases with the rise of the horizontal correlation length and variability coefficient. When accounting for spatial variability, the maximum impact force on landslide pipelines surpasses the deterministic model analysis results by 28-69 %. It is emphasized that the deterministic model analysis, which neglects the spatial variability of soil and the soil softening effect, may seriously underestimate landslide risk. Based on the criteria for pipeline buckling failure and yield failure, it is advised that the safe design parameters for pipelines in practical projects should fall within the intersection of the secure regions defined by the two failure criteria.

When borders close: Social networks, resilience and food security among informal cross-border fish traders on the Ghana-Togo border

Cross-border fish trade contributes to regional food security and is a source of income for informal traders. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the activities of cross-border traders were severely affected. Lockdowns and border closures limited the movement of people and goods, hindering regional trade. The study builds on a survey using semi-structured questionnaires and in-depth interviews conducted in Ghana in 2021 and examines the impacts of the Ghana-Togo border closure on informal cross-border female fish traders’ livelihoods and food security. The findings demonstrate that despite traders’ great efforts to keep their businesses afloat, the border closure affected the traders’ mobility, trade routes, trade volumes, and incomes, which in turn negatively affected the variety and quality of their households’ diets. However, the study also documents how traders were able to implement different strategies to cope with the difficult situation by activating and extending trust-based social networks crucial for trade. The authors therefore conclude that the social embeddedness of fish traders’ informal economic activities was decisive for the resilience of the cross-border trade system during the pandemic, which at least to some degree mitigated the negative effects on traders’ livelihoods and food security.

Accelerating decarbonization digitally: Status quo and potentials of greenhouse gas emission tracking and trading

To effectively mitigate climate change, policymakers worldwide established various GHG tracking and trading systems. In the light of ambitious climate goals, stricter regulations, and increasing demand for climate action, various groups such as researchers and governmental institutions suggested additional approaches. This paper addresses the complexity that arises from the breadth of suggested approaches and implemented systems for GHG tracking and trading. By doing so, it synthesizes relevant dimensions in a way that is understandable to enterprises and policymakers, enabling them to design meaningful systems incorporating the reduction of GHG emissions and advance cleaner production. Therefore, this paper presents a first-of-its-kind taxonomy of GHG tracking and trading approaches through a systematic literature review. It illustrates ten main design and implementation dimensions with 30 corresponding characteristics. To accelerate decarbonization, this paper sets impulses for future GHG tracking in the electricity sector based on semi-structured expert interviews. Consecutively, it provides policy directions for CO2-adaptive decision-making for enterprises, formulated as a Call for Action with seven prospective questions. These include, for example, questions concerning technical aspects like data management, legal issues like the sufficiency of existing data security and privacy regulations, as well as economic topics like the calculation of an appropriate local and temporal granularity.

Comparison of Barrier Surveillance Algorithms for Directional Sensors and UAVs.

Border surveillance and the monitoring of critical infrastructure are essential components of regional and industrial security. In this paper, our purpose is to study the intricate nature of surveillance methods used by hybrid monitoring systems utilizing Pan-Tilt-Zoom (PTZ) cameras, modeled as directional sensors, and UAVs. We aim to accomplish three occasionally conflicting goals. Firstly, at any given moment we want to detect as many intruders as possible with special attention to newly arriving trespassers. Secondly, we consider it equally important to observe the temporal movement and behavior of each intruder group as accurately as possible. Furthermore, in addition to these objectives, we also seek to minimize the cost of sensor usage associated with surveillance. During the research, we developed and analyzed several interrelated, increasingly complex algorithms. By leveraging RL methods we also gave the system the chance to find the optimal solution on its own. As a result we have gained valuable insights into how various components of these algorithms are interconnected and coordinate. Building upon these observations, we managed to develop an efficient algorithm that takes into account all three criteria mentioned above.

Factors influencing the relationship between perceptions of ecosystem services and well-being of farmers in the ore-agriculture zone, China

Understanding the coupling relationship between ecosystem service perceptions (ESP) and farmers’ well-being (FWB) in the ore-agriculture zone plays an important strategic role in maintaining regional ecological security and improving the well-being of regional farmers. Based on field research, questionnaire surveys and other methods, this study took farmers around the coal mining development zone as research subjects and used a comprehensive multi-index assessment method to evaluate the level of ESP and the FWB in the research area. A coupling coordination degree model was used to analyze the coupling relationship between ESP and FWB, and the random forest model was used to explore the influencing factors of the coupling relationship between the two. The results showed: (1) The FWB index was moderate and the ESP index was low. Farmers’ perceptions of the different ecosystem services varied, with provisioning services being perceived most strongly and supporting services least strongly. Satisfaction with basic material needs was highest on the well-being assessment. (2) The overall state of ESP and FWB coupling was good, with most of them in the state of coordination improvement. From the perspective of dimensional differentiation, the coupling of the dimensions of ESP and FWB was poorly coordinated, and all of them were in the state of dysfunction regression. (3) The coupling relationship between ESP and FWB was influenced by both environmental and household characteristics, with the former having a stronger effect. The results of this study can serve as a reference for promoting the coordination of ESP and FWB in the ore-agriculture zone, and ultimately realize the sustainable development of ecology and human in the ore-agriculture zone.

Effect of cold arid high-altitude environment on bioactive phytochemical compounds of organically grown Brassicaceae vegetables for nutri-health security in mountainous regions

High-altitude (HA) environment presents immense physiological adversities for humans that have been overcome by supplementing bio-active phytochemicals from functional foods that support and accelerate acclimatization under these extreme environmental conditions. Several agricultural interventions have been investigated to enhance the phytochemical content in vegetables however; these studies have been limited to low-altitude (LA) regions only. In view of an existing knowledge gap, current work is designed to compare the phytochemical compositions of HA and LA-grown Brassicaceae vegetables (cabbage, cauliflower, knol-khol, and radish) using organic treatments via farm yard manure (FYM) and Azotobacter. The open field study was conducted as a two-factorial randomized block design. The first factor was treatment (T1-FYM, T2-Azotobacter, T3-FYM + Azotobacter, and T4-control) while the second was locations (HA and LA). Among all these treatments, the application of treatment T3 in HA-grown cabbage showed the highest total phenolic content (TPC; 9.56 μg/mg), total flavonoids content (TFC; 14.48 μg/mg), and antioxidant potential using 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH; 85.97%) and ferric reducing antioxidant power (FRAP; 30.77 μg/mg) compared to LA grown samples. Reverse Phase high performance liquid chromatography (RP-HPLC) analysis showed that treatment T3 at HA led to significantly high kaempferol (0.92 μg/mg) and sulforaphane (8.94 μg/mg) contents in cabbage whereas, indole-3-carbinol (1.31 μg/mg) was higher in HA grown cauliflower. The present study provides scientific evidence for the enrichment of health-promoting phytochemical compounds in Brassicaceae vegetables grown with T3 treatment specifically at HA.

BRICS enlargement: Benefits for Russia and priority areas for further cooperation

Aim. To identify the advantages of BRICS enlargement and justify the most priority areas of further cooperation from the point of view of Russia’s geopolitical and geo-economic interests. Objectives. To study scientific materials in the context of the research topic; to assess the impact of BRICS on the political situation in the world arena and identify promising areas of further cooperation; to assess the change in the balance of power in the global energy market; to identify the most effective areas of cooperation between the countries to ensure BRICS security; to specify the relevant interaction between the countries in the financial sphere; to assess the impact of BRICS on integration with African countries; to identify the most priority areas of further cooperation; to identify the most effective areas of cooperation between the countries of the BRICS and Russia.Methods. The study uses the methods of analysis, synthesis, generalization, and systematic approach.Results. The article assesses the advantages of the expansion of the association and the directions of further cooperation from the point of view of Russian geopolitical and geo-economic interests. The article substantiates that the most promising areas of cooperation are deepening the coordination of foreign policy of the BRICS countries, implementation of measures to ensure collective security, establishment of monopoly pricing in the energy market, introduction of a common settlement system and a single unit of account for the countries of the association, implementation of large-scale logistics projects. The author proposes a mechanism for pricing commodities in BRICS units of account, whereby the exchange market price in BRICS units of account is adjusted by the BRICS countries based on agreements between them.Conclusions. BRICS is changing the vector of global development from unipolar to multipolar. Russia, being in the center of these processes, increases its political weight due to the commitment of more and more countries to the ideas of changing the existing world order. The most priority areas for further interaction are the work in the direction of foreign policy coordination of the member countries, joint search for effective responses to the challenges and threats to international and regional security, closer cooperation in the field of pricing in the energy market, financial sphere, scientific and technical sector and high technology; implementation of global logistics projects.

Women’s Local Knowledge and Engagement in Groundwater Irrigation: Impacts on Household Food Security in the Upper East Region of Ghana

Groundwater irrigation in Ghana is a major livelihood activity that secures food through the cultivation of vegetables for households, particularly in the dry season. This activity is largely driven by the application of local knowledge. However, the existing studies that examined local knowledge of groundwater irrigation focused mostly on male irrigation farmers. Women’s local knowledge is often ignored or remains undocumented. In instances where it is studied, women’s local knowledge is lumped with males’ local knowledge thus ignoring its uniqueness. Furthermore, the studies about women’s local knowledge in this activity present this knowledge as one that permits women to perform only supplementary roles. Also, irrigation generally has an impact on food security. Yet, few studies have examined how women’s engagement in this activity secures food for their households. Therefore, the study discusses the following: the source of women’s local knowledge of groundwater irrigation, the value and application of women’s local knowledge of groundwater irrigation and the contributions of groundwater irrigation undertaken by women to household food security. Local knowledge is special knowledge; thus, a qualitative study approach was employed to explore it. Five rural communities in the Upper East Region of Ghana were studied. Interviews were used to generate the primary data while ATLAS.ti and GraphPad software were used in organising, analysing and presenting the data. The results showed that women farmers possessed local knowledge which was traced to different sources. The knowledge extended to include their negotiation power for access to land/wells, resources of which they have been marginalised. The application of this knowledge in groundwater irrigation promoted household food security, in the dimensions of access, utilisation, affordability, and agency. However, climate change may threaten groundwater irrigation’s contribution to food security unless artificial groundwater recharge is promoted.

New approach for regional water-energy-food nexus security assessment: Enhancing the random forest model with the aquila optimizer algorithm

To uncover the security aspects of the Water-Energy-Food-Nexus (WEFN) and develop innovative methods for evaluating its security, we initially utilize the coefficient of variation-cumulative information contribution rate (COV-CICR) model to select assessment metrics. This approach ensures a well-suited set of indicators for assessing the security of the WEFN. Subsequently, the WEFN security assessment model is developed by utilizing a random forest model that has been fine-tuned with the aquila optimizer. To illustrate this model's application, we use the example of the Hongxinglong branch of China's Beidahuang Farming Group Co., Ltd. The study conducted a detailed analysis of the spatiotemporal variations in the security of the WEFN (Water-Energy-Food Nexus) system across 12 subsidiary farms. Furthermore, it identified key driving factors and elucidated their mechanisms by accounting for data fluctuations. The research included calculating the contribution index of these key driving factors to accurately determine the dominant factors under varying conditions. The results indicate that over time, the WEFN security level in the study trended upward. From 2002–2008, the WEFN security level slowly increased. From 2009–2018, WEFN security remained stable. From 2018–2021, the security level rapidly accelerated. Spatially, the WEFN security in the southern region is lower than that in the northern region, while the central region’s security remained stable. The primary controlling factors for WEFN security also vary at different scales. In comparison to the BP, RF, and PSO-RF models, the AO-RF model demonstrates outstanding advantages in terms of fitting performance, reliability, reasonableness, and stability. This fully supports the applicability of the AO-RF model in WEFN security assessment. The research findings enrich the integrated application of intelligent optimization and machine learning in WEFN studies, introduce a novel analytical model for WEFN security drivers, and expand our understanding of the new mechanisms underlying WEFN security operations.