Although fluctuation and decline in bivalve populations have been reported worldwide, the underlying processes are not yet fully understood. This lack of understanding is partly due to an absence of demographic information for the early post-settlement period. This is the case particularly for annual production of the asari clam (also commonly known as the Manila clam, Ruditapes philippinarum) in Japan, which has greatly decreased in recent years. A remarkable decrease has been observed in the Nakatsu tidal flat, where current yields are less than 0.02% of the maximum yield. Possible explanations for this decline are: 1. limitation on recruitment due to overfishing; and 2. the demographic processes of growth and mortality have been altered by environmental changes, such as rise in seawater temperature or decrease in phytoplankton abundance. However, because of a lack of demographic information (e.g., the initial densities of larval settlement and mortality and growth rates post-settlement), the reasons for the decline, and the relative importance of each period in the life cycle in determining population abundance, remain unclear. Despite the decline, we observed high levels of recruitment of 0-year-class clams on the Nakatsu tidal flat in spring 2005, where more than 10,000 individuals m−2 3–5mm in shell length, estimated to have settled during the previous autumn, were observed. To obtain demographic information on the Nakatsu clams, we investigated two factors. First, we investigated the distribution of the 0-year-class clams and their rate of change in density as a combination of mortality, emigration and immigration on the whole tidal flat after a year. Second, we investigated the rate of change in the density and growth of clams after settlement in the center of the flat for 3years. The rate of decrease in the density of the 0-year-class clams over the whole tidal flat after a year was greater at the stations where the initial density was higher. This suggests that density-dependent processes such as predation or competition may affect population levels. In the center of the flat, the initial density of settlement was more stable than the rate of decrease after settlement. These results suggest that the clam population on this tidal flat is probably suppressed by variable but high mortality rates after settlement, not by recruitment limitation.
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