Seasonal Climate Forecast Information Research Articles

Co-designing Indices for Tailored Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Malawi

In central and southern Malawi, climate variability significantly impacts agricultural production and food availability owing to a high dependence on rain-fed maize production. Seasonal climate forecast information has the potential to inform farmers' agricultural planning, thereby improving preparedness to extreme events. In this paper we describe and evaluate an approach to co-designing and testing agro-climatic indices for use in seasonal forecasts that are tailored to farmer-defined decision-making needs in three districts of central and southern Malawi. Specifically, we aim to (a) identify critical maize specific agro-climatic indices by engaging key stakeholders and farmers; (b) compare and triangulate these indices with the historical climate record in study districts; and (c) analyze empirical relationships between seasonal total rainfall and maize specific indices in order to assess the potential for forecasting them at appropriate seasonal timescales. The identified agro-climatic indices include critical temperature/rainfall thresholds that are directly associated with phenological stages of maize growth with direct implications for maize yield and quality. While there are statistically significant relationships between observed wet season rainfall totals and several agro-climatic indices (e.g., heavy rainfall days and dry spell), the forecast skill of the UK Met Office's coupled initialized global seasonal forecasting system (GloSea5) over Malawi is currently low to provide confident predictions of total wet season rainfall and the agro-climatic indices correlated with it. We reflect on some of the opportunities and challenges associated with integrating farmers' information needs into a seasonal forecast process, through the use of agro-climatic indices.

Forecast probability, lead time and farmer decision-making in rice farming systems in Northern Ghana

Rice farmers in Northern Ghana are susceptible to climate variability and change with its effects in the form of drought, water scarcity, erratic rainfall and high temperatures. In response, farmers resort to weather and seasonal forecast to manage uncertainties in decision-making. However, there is limited empirical research on how forecast lead time and probabilities influence farmer decision-making. In this study, we posed the overall question: how do rice farmers respond to forecast information with different probabilities and lead times? We purposively engaged 36 rice farmers (12 rainfed, 12 irrigated and 12 practising both) in Visually Facilitated Scenario Mapping Workshops (VFSMW) to explore how probabilities and lead times inform their decision-making. Results of the VFSMW showed rainfed rice farmers are most sensitive to forecast probabilities because of their over-reliance on rainfall. Also, an increase in forecast probability does not necessarily mean farmers will act. The decision to act based on forecast probability is dependent on the stage of the farming cycle. Also, seasonal forecast information provided at a 1 month lead time significantly informed farmer decision-making compared to a lead time of 2 or 3 months. Also, weather forecast provided at a lead time of 1 week is more useful for decision-making than at a 3 day or 1 day lead time. We conclude that communicating forecast information with their probabilities and at an appropriate lead time has the potential to help farmers manage risks and improve decision-making. We propose that climate services in Northern Ghana should aim at communicating weather and seasonal climate forecast information at 1 week and 1 month lead times respectively. Farmers should also adapt their decisions to the timing and probabilities of the forecast provided.

Seasonal Climate Forecast Skill Assessment for the Management of Water Resources in a Run of River Hydropower System in the Poqueira River (Southern Spain)

Run of river (RoR) hydropower systems, despite being one of the most cost-effective and environmentally benign energy technologies, have the disadvantage that production is not constant because it is subject to a high variability in precipitation and snow cover. In addition, the management of RoR plants has to comply with some particular operating conditions, but also with some environmental flow requirements. This work presents the assessment of the main inputs included in a climate service, historical local data and the seasonal forecast of water inflow to RoR plants, which are used to predict the operability and the expected energy production. The analysis is presented through the application in a pilot RoR system located in the south of Spain, in a semi-arid Mediterranean area impacted by snow, where seasonal forecasting is especially challenging. The results show the high interannual variability of the operation in this kind of facilities. The outcomes indicate that seasonal climate forecast information would improve the prediction of observed river streamflow by 7.4% in reliability and 3.2% in sharpness compared to the current operational forecast based on historical data. The climate forecasts thus provide valuable information for the exploitation of available water resources, which generates a significant value for the operation of the plant and the energy production market.

Enabling Conditions for Improved Use of Seasonal Climate Forecast in Arid and Semi-Arid Baringo County—Kenya

The use of seasonal climate forecasts can inform implementation of planned adaptation strategies to stabilize pastoral livestock assets in drought prone agro ecological zones. The main objective of this study was to assess use of seasonal climate forecasts as strategies for securing pastoralists assets in arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) of Baringo County. The study used five (5) study locations that were purposively picked to ensure that they fall within the ASAL agro-ecological zones, LM5 and IL6. The total sampled households from the five locations was 221. The study used data from household survey to establish barriers to use of seasonal climate forecasts, use of traditional climate information and enabling conditions. Mean comparisons and frequencies of ratings were generated to ascertain the use of traditional climate information among the respondents. Sensitivity analysis was useful in identifying the most significant barriers to uptake of seasonal climate forecasts and the best and most significant enabling conditions/institutions to the access and usage of climate forecasts. The study established that majority (72.4%) of the respondents relied on traditional climate forecast methods than scientific methods in decision-making. The factors with greater influence on uptake of seasonal climate forecast information were lack of information, access, diversified sources of income and insecurity/conflicts, illiteracy and culture. The institutions with large influence were knowledge dissemination linked to radio and extension services and local climate information. The study recommends increased investments in strengthening and equipping human resource capacities of the pastoral community, local weather stations and extension services to foster uptake of scientific climate information to help reduce vulnerability to drought events in the arid and semi-arid lands.

Food shortages are associated with droughts, floods, frosts and ENSO in Papua New Guinea

In Papua New Guinea extreme climate events have occasionally led to the collapse of normal subsistence food production systems causing large scale food shortages that threaten human health and survival (e.g. during the 1997 El Niño drought). Production of staple foods (e.g. sweet potato) and cash crops (e.g. coffee) are adversely affected by drought, water logging and frost. We investigated the association between El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), extreme climate events and reported food shortages. Over the 120year period between 1890 and 2009, there have been 15 widespread droughts and 13 of these were associated with El Niño events, and eight of the 12 widespread floods were associated with La Niña events. On a national scale droughts were associated with El Niño systems and wet events were associated with La Niña systems. Since the early 1900s eleven major and widespread food shortages have been reported in the highlands but they have not been associated with drought alone but also with water surplus and frost. Eight of the eleven widespread food shortages were associated with El Niño years (1997, 1987, 1982, 1972, 1965, 1941, 1932, 1911–14) and four of these were preceded by La Niña events (1996, 1971, 1964, 1910). There was evidence of anomalous frosts at lower altitudes (1450m) and more frequent frosts at higher altitudes (>2200m) during clear skies in El Niño droughts that also contributed to food shortages. It is a combination of climatic extremes that causes the damage to crops that leads to a shortage of subsistence food in the highlands. The Standardised Precipitation Index provided a useful warning of success of more than 60% for El Niño droughts in 10 of the 18 locations; however the success rates of La Niña flood warnings at these locations was lower (<60%). Using seasonal climate forecasts based on ENSO and climate integrated crop models may provide early warning for farmers, industry agencies and government to help prepare for food shortages. Strategies that can help subsistence farmers cope with extreme climate events and the use, and value of seasonal climate forecast information are discussed.

Managing Climate Risks Using Seasonal Climate Forecast Information in Vhembe District in Limpopo Province, South Africa

The majority of small – scale farmers in the Vhembe district have been experiencing extreme climatic risk, high climate variability and change for a very long time. The majority of these small –scale farmers are vulnerable to all types of climate risk due to their low adaptive capacity, lack of access to technology as a result of level of education, lack of financial resources and also among other things low level of resilience and high level of poverty amongst these farmers. However, the majority of these small – scale farmers in the Vhembe district use different adaptive strategies as a way of preserving assets for future livelihoods including: (a) Drought resistant varieties, (b) Crop diversification, (c) Plant crops that require less water, (d) Some of these small – scale farmers use local climate indicators to monitor climate risk, (e) Adjust fertilizer input, (f) Use rainwater harvesting techniques. Different institutions in the country including the South African Weather Services, and the Agricultural Research Council, and the Limpopo Provincial Department of Agriculture, issue and disseminate the seasonal forecasts information to different districts including the Vhembe. Most of the time, the information has been disseminated to end-users in simple ways, but the need to find more out more about end users’ needs is still required.

Assessing the value of seasonal climate forecast information through an end‐to‐end forecasting framework: Application to U.S. 2012 drought in central Illinois

AbstractThis study proposes an end‐to‐end forecasting framework to incorporate operational seasonal climate forecasts to help farmers improve their decisions prior to the crop growth season, which are vulnerable to unanticipated drought conditions. The framework couples a crop growth model with a decision‐making model for rainfed agriculture and translates probabilistic seasonal forecasts into more user‐related information that can be used to support farmers' decisions on crop type and some market choices (e.g., contracts with ethanol refinery). The regional Climate‐Weather Research and Forecasting model (CWRF) driven by two operational general circulation models (GCMs) is used to provide the seasonal forecasts of weather parameters. To better assess the developed framework, CWRF is also driven by observational reanalysis data, which theoretically can be considered as the best seasonal forecast. The proposed framework is applied to the Salt Creek watershed in Illinois that experienced an extreme drought event during 2012 crop growth season. The results show that the forecasts cannot capture the 2012 drought condition in Salt Creek and therefore the suggested decisions can make farmers worse off if the suggestions are adopted. Alternatively, the optimal decisions based on reanalysis‐based CWRF forecasts, which can capture the 2012 drought conditions, make farmers better off by suggesting “no‐contract” with ethanol refineries. This study suggests that the conventional metric used for ex ante value assessment is not capable of providing meaningful information in the case of extreme drought. Also, it is observed that institutional interventions (e.g., crop insurance) highly influences farmers' decisions and, thereby, the assessment of forecast value.

Seasonal Climate Forecasts – Potential Agricultural-Risk Management Tools?

The importance of anchoring seasonal climate forecasts to user needs is examined in this paper. Although it is generally accepted that seasonal climate forecasts have potential value, many constraints preclude the optimal use of these forecasts, including the way forecasts are produced, interpreted and applied in a variety of decision-making processes. In South Africa, a variety of agricultural users exists, ranging from the small-scale farmer to larger commercial farming entities. Useful seasonal are those produced and disseminated with the end user in mind. A retroactive test period during the 1990s, evaluates the perceived impact of incorporating seasonal rainfall forecasts into decisions made by commercial crop farmers in the central parts of South Africa. Although a small sample of commercial farmers was interviewed, the results show some benefits to commercial agriculture if seasonal climate forecast information is continuously and effectively applied over the long-term.

Can seasonal climate forecasting assist in catchment water management decision-making?

Although the ability to forecast climatic variability has progressed significantly in recent years, there appears little use of seasonal climate forecast information in catchment water management decision-making. Forecast accuracy, or the perceived lack of forecast accuracy, is cited as a key impediment to the uptake of forecast information in decision-making despite the efforts of researchers to statistically validate forecast systems. One potential reason why accuracy remains an impediment is that decision-makers are not only concerned with statistical validity from a climatological perspective, but also with how accurately a forecast predicts impacts on variables of interest from their perspective. This paper examines this issue using a case study approach from eastern Australia to show that a forecast, which is acceptable from a climatological perspective, does not necessarily transfer into a useable forecast for decision-makers. The results show that expected outcomes differ considerably from outcomes generated using a perfect forecast. These unintended outcomes can decrease the potential for a forecast to be useful to decision-makers. It is concluded that forecast research needs to address forecast accuracy from a user perspective to facilitate the adoption of forecast information in decision-making.

Climate Research and Seasonal Forecasting for West Africans: Perceptions, Dissemination, and Use?

Beginning in response to the disastrous drought of 1968–73, considerable research and monitoring have focused on the characteristics, causes, predictability, and impacts of West African Soudano–Sahel (10°–18°N) rainfall variability and drought. While these efforts have generated substantial information on a range of these topics, very little is known of the extent to which communities, activities at risk, and policy makers are aware of, have access to, or use such information. This situation has prevailed despite Glantz's provocative BAMS paper on the use and value of seasonal forecasts for the Sahel more than a quarter century ago. We now provide a systematic reevaluation of these issues based on questionnaire responses of 566 participants (in 13 communities) and 26 organizations in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and Nigeria. The results reveal that rural inhabitants have limited access to climate information, with nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) being the most important source. Moreover, the pathways for information flow are generally weakly connected and informal. As a result, utilization of the results of climate research is very low to nonexistent, even by organizations responsible for managing the effects of climate variability. Similarly, few people have access to seasonal climate forecasts, although the vast majority expressed a willingness to use such information when it becomes available. Those respondents with access expressed great enthusiasm and satisfaction with seasonal forecasts. The results suggest that inhabitants of the Soudano–Sahel savanna are keen for changes that improve their ability to cope with climate variability, but the lack of information on alternative courses of action is a major constraint. Our study, thus, essentially leaves unchanged both Glantz's negative “tentative conclusion” and more positive “preliminary assessment” of 25 years ago. Specifically, while many of the infrastructural deficiencies and socioeconomic impediments remain, the great yearning for climate information by Soudano–Sahalians suggests that the time is finally ripe for fostering increased use. Therefore, a simple model for improved dissemination of climate research and seasonal climate forecast information is proposed. The tragedy is that a quarter century has passed since Glantz's clarion call.