Mortality Score Research Articles

Outcomes of Left Main Chronic Total Occlusion Percutaneous Coronary Interventions.

Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) of left main (LM) chronic total occlusions (CTO) has received limited study. We compared the clinical and procedural characteristics and outcomes of patients who underwent LM versus non-LM CTO PCI at 41 US and non-US centers between 2012 and 2024. During the study period 85 of 15,254 CTO PCIs (0.6%) performed in 14,969 patients were LM CTO PCIs. LM CTO PCI patients were older, had higher rates of dyslipidemia and heart failure and most (88.8%) had prior coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG). They were more likely to have moderately or severely calcified lesions (80.7% vs. 45.7%, p < 0.001) and had higher J-CTO (2.76 ± 1.17 vs. 2.37 ± 1.26, p = 0.008), PROGRESS-CTO MACE (3.56 vs. 2.57, p < 0.001), Mortality (2.45 vs. 1.68, p < 0.001), Pericardiocentesis (2.74 vs. 1.87, p < 0.001), Acute MI (1.72 vs. 0.89, p < 0.001) and Perforation (3.21 vs. 2.19, p < 0.001) scores. There was no difference in technical success (80.5% vs. 87.2%, p = 0.086) or major cardiovascular adverse events (MACE) (2.4% vs. 2.0%, p = 0.700). LM CTO PCI patients with and without prior CABG surgery had similar technical success and MACE. The retrograde approach in prior CABG patients was more likely to be performed through saphenous vein grafts. LM CTO PCI is infrequently performed, is associated with high comorbidity burden and angiographic complexity but can be performed with high success and acceptable complication rates.

Open abdomen versus primary closure in nontrauma patients: A weighted analysis of a single-center experience

INTRODUCTION The open abdomen (OA) technique is nowadays a worldwide strategy both for trauma and emergency general surgery. Despite the attempt at conducting prospective studies, a high level of evidence is far from established. The aim of this study was to investigate if we overused this strategy and if it improved the postoperative course of our patients. METHODS Emergency laparotomies from 2017 and 2023 were reviewed and stratified according to OA and closed abdomen (CA). Differences were balanced by inverse probability weighting, and the 90-day mortality was estimated. Subgroup analysis was carried out for patients with a Mannheim Peritonitis Index (MPI) of &gt;26, bowel obstruction, bowel ischemia (BI) and gastrointestinal perforation. RESULTS Of the 320 patients, 167 were CA and 153 were OA. Groups were different for American Society of Anesthesiologists, comorbidities, transfusion rate, Physiologic and Operative Severity Score for the Study of Mortality and Morbidity score, MPI, Clinical Frailty Scale score, diagnosis, and resection. Two balanced pseudo-populations were created. The 90-day survival rate was 50.8% for CA and 60.8% for OA (hazard ratio [HR], 0.79; confidence interval [CI], 0.40–1.55; p = 0.502). At the Cox regression, the Clinical Frailty Scale score (HR, 1.125; 95% CI, 1.01–1.25; p = 0.033) and BI (HR, 5.531; 95% CI, 2.37–12.89; p &lt; 0.001) were independent risk factors for mortality. Transfusion rate (odds ratio [OR], 3.44; 95% CI, 1.44–8.23; p &lt; 0.006) and length of stay in the intensive care unit (OR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.07–1.20; p &lt; 0.001) were associated with major complications. Open abdomen did not modify mortality in the case of bowel obstruction, MPI &gt;26, or gastrointestinal perforation. Finally, OA (HR, 0.056; 95% CI, 0.01–0.22; p = 0.001) and large bowel resection (HR, 6.442; 95% CI, 1.28–32.31; p = 0.040) were predictors of longer survival in the subgroup of patients with BI. CONCLUSION Open abdomen was not associated with a higher complication rate or higher mortality but did result in a longer in-hospital stay. The only setting where OA seemed to be advantageous was in the BI population. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE Epidemiological and Prognostic Study; Level III.

Predictors and Predictive Score of In-Hospital Mortality in Diabetic Ketoacidosis: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background and Objectives: Diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) is a critical complication of diabetes mellitus (DM). The primary objective of this study was to identify relevant clinical and biochemical predictors and create a predictive score for in-hospital DKA mortality. Materials and Methods: A 6-year retrospective cohort study of adult patients diagnosed with DKA and admitted to Chiang Mai University Hospital, a tertiary care center in Chiang Mai, Thailand, from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2021, was conducted. Baseline clinical data and laboratory investigations were collected. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Multivariable logistic regression analysis, clustered by type of diabetes, was performed to identify significant predictors. A predictive risk score was created using significant predictive factors identified by multivariable analysis. The results were presented as odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), with a significant p-value set at &lt;0.05. Results: Ninety-three patients diagnosed with DKA were included in the study. Ten patients died during admission. Significant predictors for in-hospital mortality of DKA included age &gt; 55 years (OR 7.8, p = 0.007), female gender (OR 3.5, p &lt; 0.001), anion gap &gt; 30 mEq/L (OR 2.6, p = 0.003), hemoglobin levels &lt; 10 g/dL (OR 16.9, p &lt; 0.001), and the presence of cardiovascular disease (OR 1.3, p = 0.046). The predictive risk score ranged from 1 to 14 for low risk, and 14.5–23.5 for high risk of in-hospital mortality. The predictive performance of the scoring system was 0.82 based on the area under the curve, with a sensitivity of 73.8% and specificity of 96.4%. Conclusions: Multiple clinical and biochemical factors, along with a predictive risk score, could assist in predicting in-hospital mortality of DKA and serve as a guide for physicians to identify patients at high risk. Nevertheless, as the predictive score was internally validated with data from a single institution, external validation in diverse healthcare settings with larger datasets or prospective cohorts is crucial to confirm the model’s generalizability and predictive accuracy.

ACEF score and lactate: lifeline predictors in endocarditis valve procedures: insights from a single-center study.

This study aimed to assess the prognostic value of routinely collected laboratory parameters, specifically lactate, troponin-T, and CK-MB, in predicting mortality in patients with surgically treated endocarditis. Additionally, the study evaluated the effectiveness of two mortality scores, EuroSCORE II and ACEF II Score, in this clinical context. We retrospectively analyzed data from 130 patients diagnosed with endocarditis who underwent surgery at a single tertiary center over nine years. The study utilized preoperative mortality scores and laboratory parameters collected within the first 24h post-surgery. Statistical analyses included AUROC curves, Kaplan-Meier survival analyses, and correlation analyses to determine predictive values and associations with patient outcomes. Among the 130 patients, 28 (21.5%) died within one year post-surgery. Elevated postoperative lactate levels were significantly associated with increased short- and long-term mortality, with AUROC values indicating strong predictive capability. The ACEF II Score also demonstrated significant predictive value for mortality at various time points, outperforming EuroSCORE II. Higher lactate levels and ACEF II Scores correlated with increased hazard ratios for mortality. Kaplan-Meier analyses revealed significant survival differences based on lactate and ACEF II Score thresholds. Postoperative lactate levels and the ACEF II Score are robust predictors of mortality in patients undergoing cardiac surgery for endocarditis. Integrating these parameters into clinical practice can enhance risk stratification and guide therapeutic decisions, improving patient outcomes through personalized care. Further studies are needed to validate these findings across diverse populations and explore additional biomarkers for refined predictive accuracy.

An investigation into the contributing factors to survival of ARDS patients supported by veno-venous ECMO.

This study aimed to identify characteristics associated with survival during and post Extra Corporeal Membrane Oxygenation (ECMO) therapy, in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) during the COVID-19 pandemic. A retrospective observational study on 94 consecutive patients with confirmed COVID-19 induced ARDS supported by ECMO was carried out 49/94 (52.7%) patients survived to hospital discharge. Non-survivors were found to have significantly (p < .05) higher: Pre-ECMO International normalized ratios (INR), carbon dioxide partial pressure (pCO2), Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) scores and blood urea levels. Also, lower pre-ECMO peak inspiratory pressures (PIP), mean arterial pressure, saturation of arterial oxygen (SaO2), blood bicarbonate levels (HCO3), blood Ph and fewer trials off ECMO with shorter combined trial off times. Patients that did not survive were more likely to have renal impairment and have received peri-ECMO haemofiltration. Poor prognosis was significantly associated with: receiving pre-ECMO nitric oxide (HR = 3.047, CI = 1.247-7.447, p = .015), renal impairment (HR = 3.023, CI = 1.586-5.763, p < .001), AKI of 2 (HR = 3.611, CI = 1.382-9.441, p = .009) or 3 (HR = 3.275, CI = 1.235-8.685, p = .017), peri-ECMO haemofiltration (HR = 2.412, CI = 1.310-4.442, p = .005) and the ABO blood group B (HR = 3.103, CI = 1.335-7.212, p = .008). pre-ECMO high CO2 (HR = 1.134, CI = 1.031-1.248, p = .010), blood lactate (HR = 1.350, CI = 1.156-1.576, p < .001), INR (HR = 2.571, CI = 1.438-4.598, p=<0.001) and lower blood Ph (HR = 0.023, CI = 0.002-0.210, p < .001). Commonly used mortality scores may not be of use in a COVID-19 cohort of ECMO patients. The initiation of ECMO needs to be implemented prior to metabolic derangements, renal and fulminant respiratory failure.

Boosting the accuracy of existing models by updating and extending: using a multicenter COVID-19 ICU cohort as a proxy

Most published prediction models for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) were poorly reported, at high risk of bias, and heterogeneous in model performance. To tackle methodological challenges faced in previous prediction studies, we investigated whether model updating and extending improves mortality prediction, using the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) as a proxy. All COVID-19 patients admitted to seven ICUs in the Euregio-Meuse Rhine during the first pandemic wave were included. The 4C Mortality and SEIMC scores were selected as promising prognostic models from an external validation study. Five predictors could be estimated based on cohort size. TRIPOD guidelines were followed and logistic regression analyses with the linear predictor, APACHE II score, and country were performed. Bootstrapping with backward selection was applied to select variables for the final model. Additionally, shrinkage was performed. Model discrimination was displayed as optimism-corrected areas under the ROC curve and calibration by calibration slopes and plots. The mortality rate of the 551 included patients was 36%. Discrimination of the 4C Mortality and SEIMC scores increased from 0.70 to 0.74 and 0.70 to 0.73 and calibration plots improved compared to the original models after updating and extending. Mortality prediction can be improved after updating and extending of promising models.

Management of intracavitary bleeding during ultra-early minimally invasive intracerebral hemorrhage evacuation.

Surgical evacuation of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) at early time points contributes to improved functional outcomes. However, ultra-early evacuation has been associated with postoperative rebleeding, a devastating complication that contributes to worse outcomes. Minimally invasive endoscopic techniques allow for intraoperative management of active bleeding, potentially allowing for safe and effective hemostasis at ultra-early time points. The authors proposed and prospectively assigned an intraoperative grading scale that quantified the severity of bleeding encountered intraoperatively. They hypothesized that ultra-early evacuation would correlate to increased intraoperative bleeding but not postoperative rebleeding or worse long-term clinical outcomes in a cohort of patients undergoing minimally invasive endoscopic evacuation. Patients presenting to a large healthcare system with spontaneous supratentorial ICH were triaged to a central hospital for potential surgical evacuation. Inclusion criteria for evacuation included age ≥ 18 years, premorbid mRS score ≤ 3, hematoma volume ≥ 15 mL, and presenting National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score ≥ 6. A 5-point scale was developed and prospectively applied to grade the severity of bleeding encountered intraoperatively. A score of 1 indicated no active intraoperative bleeding. A score of 2 indicated minimal bleeding treated with irrigation alone. A score of 3 indicated bleeding that required cauterization to control. A score of 4 indicated bleeding that required irrigation or cauterization for at least 15 minutes to achieve hemostasis. A score of 5 indicated bleeding that required irrigation or cauterization for at least 1 hour. The authors evaluated 142 consecutive patients. The median bleeding score was 2 (IQR 2-4). Greater preoperative volume, concomitant intraventricular hemorrhage, and earlier time to evacuation were independently associated with increased bleeding score. Specifically, ultra-early evacuation within 5 hours was independently associated with a 2.4-point greater bleeding score as compared with evacuation thereafter (β = 2.41, 95% CI 1.44-3.38; p < 0.0001). Despite having higher intraoperative bleeding scores, patients undergoing ultra-early evacuation did not have an increased likelihood of postoperative rebleeding (14% vs 3%, p = 0.23), 30-day mortality (0% vs 6%, p = 0.99), or worse median 6-month mRS scores (4 [IQR 2-5] vs 4 [IQR 3-5], p = 0.51). Ultra-early evacuation within 5 hours of ictus is associated with increased intraoperative bleeding but not postoperative rebleeding or worse clinical outcomes. These findings suggest that the benefits of ultra-early evacuation can be explored without an increased risk of postoperative rebleeding when utilizing a minimally invasive endoscopic technique with good intraoperative visualization, active irrigation for targeted tamponade, and direct cauterization of bleeding vessels.

Comparison of mortality scores performance in transcatheter aortic valve replacement: suiting up to percutaneous intervention

Abstract Introduction As transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) is increasingly relevant for patients with severe symptomatic aortic stenosis, having a reliable procedure specific risk-prediction tool is paramount to provide high-quality care. Surgical scores as the EuroScore II and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score II have been widely used to identify patients with high surgical risk in whom percutaneous treatment might be more favorable. However, current literature lacks a consensual specific predictive model for short-term and mid-term prognosis in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). Purpose We aimed to access short and midterm (30 days and one year) mortality and to access the ability of a directly adapted score in estimating mortality in a real-world population. Methods We conducted a retrospective observational study in patients who implanted TAVR in a single center. Surgical mortality scores – EUROSCORE II and STS score II – and adapted score Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS)/American College of Cardiology (ACC) transcatheter valve therapy (TVT) score were used to estimate mortality. Predictive abilities of these three scores were compared using area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve for 30-day and one year mortality. Results From January 2018 to December 2021, 416 patients were submitted to TAVR procedure in our center. The mean age was 83+-6 years old and 229 (55%) were female. 94% had hypertension, 80% dyslipidemia, 40% diabetes mellitus, 35% coronary artery disease, 32% chronic kidney disease. Mean ejection fraction was 56%. During a mean follow-up (FUP) of 816 ± 492 days, 30-day mortality was 1,7% and after 1 year mortality rate was 12,2% (higher than reported in PARTNER 3 trial, 8,5%). The Mean EuroSCORE was 3,4±3,2, mean STS-II 3,9±1,8 and mean value for STS/ACC-TVT score was 3,55±1,34. ROC curve analysis showed a significantly higher discriminative power of STS/ACC-TVT (AUC 0,749, 95% CI 0,681-0,818) compared with surgical scores (p=0,001) – figure 1. We also divided population into quartiles and compared the mortality rate at 30 days and 1 year in each quartile using either STSII or STS/ACC-TVT; As can be seen in figure 2, mortality rates correlated better with the STS/ACC-TVT score than with the STS score. Conclusion A score adapted to a TAVI population showed better predictive capacity than traditional surgical scores. Less preponderance of previous surgical status, relevance of access site and more adapted weight of age might explain the best performance of STS/ACC-TVT score. Surgical scores are helpful in choosing treatment option, but adapted scores are better to predict pos-TAVR mortality.

Early risk stratification of patients after successfully resuscitated out-of-hospital cardiac arrest without ST-segment elevation - the TOMAHAWK risk score

Abstract Background Mortality after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) remains high. Early risk stratification is crucial to make adequate treatment decisions. Existing OHCA risk scores are either medically outdated, limited to registry data, small cohorts, certain healthcare systems only or include complex calculations. Purpose The aim of this study was to develop an easy-to-use, readily available risk prediction score for short-term mortality in patients with successfully resuscitated OHCA without ST-segment elevation, derived from the TOMAHAWK (Angiography after Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest without ST-Segment Elevation) trial. Methods The risk score was developed using a backward stepwise regression analysis. The risk score was externally validated in the COACT (Coronary Angiography after Cardiac Arrest Trial) cohort, which included patients with shockable rhythms only. Results Development and validation of the risk score was performed across 50 centres in three countries. Five variables emerged as independent predictors for 30-day mortality and were used as risk score parameters: age ≥72 years, known diabetes, unshockable initial electrocardiogram rhythm, time until return of spontaneous circulation ≥23 minutes and admission serum lactate level above 7.9 mmol/L. Between 1 and 4 points were attributed to each variable, leading to a score with three risk categories: low (0 to 2), intermediate (3 to 6) and high (7 to 10). The observed 30-day mortality rates were 23.6%, 68.8% and 86.2%, respectively (p&amp;lt;0.001) with a very good discrimination at an area under the curve of 0.82. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed a stepwise increase in mortality between the different risk score categories (p&amp;lt;0.001 for low vs. intermediate, intermediate vs. high and low vs. high; see Figure). External validation in the COACT cohort showed short-term mortality rates of 23.1% (score 0 to 2), 44.8% (score 3 to 6) and 78.9% (score 7 to 10), respectively (each p&amp;lt;0.001). Conclusion The TOMAHAWK risk score can be easily calculated in daily clinical practice and is strongly correlated with mortality in patients with successfully resuscitated OHCA without ST-segment elevation. It may help stratify patient risk for short-term mortality and facilitate clinical decision making.

Proenkephalin improves risk prediction in acute coronary syndromes: derivation and external validation of the KID-ACS risk score

Abstract Background Early assessment of renal and mortality risk in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS) is essential to guide treatment decisions according to international guidelines. Circulating proenkephalin (PENK) is a stable opioid metabolite with fast response to changes in kidney function. Purpose This study examined the predictive value of PENK for acute kidney injury (AKI) and mortality in patients presenting with acute coronary syndromes (ACS). Methods Plasma PENK levels were measured using a validated sandwich immunoassay in a prospective multicentre ACS cohort from Switzerland (n = 4 787) and in validation cohorts from the UK (n = 1 141) and Czechia (n = 920). A biomarker-enhanced risk score for simultaneous prediction of both in-hospital acute kidney injury (AKI) and 30-day death (KID-ACS score) with model coefficients adjusted to the outcome was derived and externally validated. In the development of the in-hospital AKI model, patients from one participating study centre were reserved for external validation (Swiss validation cohort). Results Circulating PENK ranked among the top predictors of renal outcomes and mortality in patients with ACS. Accounting for established risk factors and risk models, circulating PENK levels at presentation were independently associated with in-hospital AKI (per log2 increase: adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.56, 95% CI 1.14 – 2.12, P = 0.005) and with 30-day mortality (per log2 increase: adjusted OR 2.69, 95% CI 1.89 – 3.84, P &amp;lt; 0.001). Dynamic changes in PENK levels within the first 12-24 hours after presentation were strongly and independently associated with in-hospital AKI (increase vs. decrease: adjusted OR 2.83, 95% CI 1.98 – 4.05, P &amp;lt; 0.001). The simple 6-item KID-ACS risk score for in-hospital AKI and 30-day mortality integrates PENK levels at presentation and showed an AUC of 0.72 (95% CI 0.68 – 0.76) for in-hospital AKI, and of 0.91 (95% CI 0.87 – 0.95) for 30-day mortality in the derivation cohort. Upon external validation, KID-ACS had similarly high performance for in-hospital AKI (Swiss validation cohort: AUC 0.73, 95% CI 0.70 – 0.77; Czech validation cohort: 0.74, 95% CI 0.68 – 0.80) and 30-day mortality (UK validation cohort: AUC of 0.87, 95% CI 0.82 – 0.91; Czech validation cohort: 0.91, 95% CI 0.87 – 0.94). The simple 6-item KID-ACS score was non-inferior to established risk models and significantly outperformed the CA-AKI risk score in predicting in-hospital AKI (Zurich cohort: delta AUC 0.11, 95% CI 0.07 – 0.15, P = 0.001) and the GRACE 2.0 in predicting 30-day mortality (UK cohort: delta AUC 0.05, 95% CI 0.01 – 0.09, P = 0.027). Conclusions Circulating PENK was identified as independent predictor of in-hospital AKI and 30-day mortality in patients with ACS. The simple 6-item KID-ACS risk score integrates circulating PENK levels and provides a novel tool for simultaneous assessment of renal and mortality risk in patients presenting with ACS.Independent Predictive Value PENKPerformance and validation of KID-ACS

Comparing predictive accuracy: systolic blood pressure to left ventricular end-diastolic pressure ratio versus TIMI score for short-term mortality after primary percutaneous coronary intervention

Abstract Objective Aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive performance of systolic blood pressure (SBP) to left ventricular end-diastolic pressure (LVEDP) ratio for the prediction of in-hospital and short-term mortality in a contemporary cohort of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) at a tertiary care cardiac center. Methods This study included a consecutive series of patients diagnosed with STEMI who underwent primary PCI. The SBP/LVEDP ratio and TIMI (Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction) score were calculated, and their ability to predict in-hospital and short-term mortality was evaluated by analyzing the area under the curve (AUC) on the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve. Results This study involved 977 patients, with 780 (79.8%) being male and a mean age of 55.6±11.5 years. Among them, 191 (19.5%) had an SBP/LVEDP ≤5.4. The in-hospital mortality rate was 4.3% (42), and the short-term all-cause mortality rate after a mean follow-up of 5.9±2.4 months was 15% (140). Patients with SBP/LVEDP ≤5.4 had higher in-hospital mortality rates (14.1% vs. 1.9%; p&amp;lt;0.001) and short-term mortality rates (35.1% vs. 9.8%; p&amp;lt;0.001) compared to those with SBP/LVEDP &amp;gt;5.4. The AUCs of SBP/LVEDP and TIMI for predicting in-hospital mortality were 0.766 [0.681-0.851] and 0.787 [0.713-0.861], respectively. For short-term mortality, the AUCs of SBP/LVEDP and TIMI were 0.731 [0.682-0.780] and 0.736 [0.690-0.782], respectively. Conclusion In conclusion, SBP/LVEDP showed sufficiently high predictive power comparable to the TIMI risk score. SBP/LVEDP is a readily available ratio that can rapidly provide valuable prognostic information during primary PCI.operating characteristics curveComparative distribution

Long-term outcomes after transcatheter aortic valve implantation: derivation and validation of the long-TAVI prediction model

Abstract Background Identification of high-risk individuals after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is essential to personalized care. Established risk models require a plethora of variables, fail to account for biomarker dynamics and imaging parameters, mostly focus on the short term, and offer limited predictive performance. Purpose We aimed to develop an easily applicable prediction model for long-term mortality or heart failure (HF) admission following TAVI. Methods Patients undergoing TAVI at a high-volume university centre in the United Kingdom (n = 990) were recruited into a prospective cohort study. Enrolled patients were divided into a development cohort (07/2007 – 12/2016) and a validation cohort (01/2017 – 11/2018) and followed for up to 15.1 (median 5.3, interquartile range [IQR] 2.8 – 7.4) years. Patient characteristics along with pre- and post-procedural imaging results and brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels before the procedure and at 3 months were recorded. A clinical risk score for long-term mortality and HF admission (i.e., Long-TAVI risk score) was derived using Cox regression and evaluated using time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC). Results Age at presentation was 79.8 (standard deviation [SD] 8.9) years, 961 (99.0%) patients had signs of heart failure, left ventricular ejection fraction was 52 (SD 11.2), and pre-TAVI BNP levels were 298.0 (interquartile range [IQR] 159.0 – 571.5) pg/mL. High BNP levels at presentation (higher vs. lower than 400 pg/mL: HR 1.50, 95% CI 1.17 – 1.92, P &amp;lt; 0.001) and dynamic changes in BNP with the first 3 months (low/high vs. low/low: 2.61, 95% CI 1.17 – 5.86, P = 0.020; high/high vs. low/low: 2.41, 95% CI 1.26 – 4.64, P = 0.008) were independent predictors mortality or HF admission. The simple 8-item Long-TAVI score accounts for periprocedural BNP dynamics and shows good discrimination (AUC 0.76, 95% CI 0.72 – 0.79) and calibration in the development cohort performing similarly well in the external validation cohort (AUC 0.70, 95% CI 0.63 – 0.77). Long-TAVI significantly outperformed the logistic EURO score (AUC 0.56, 95% CI 0.52 – 0.59, P &amp;lt; 0.001). Conclusion Both pre-TAVI BNP levels and periprocedural BNP trajectories are independently associated with long-term outcomes after TAVI. Accounting for clinical characteristics, imaging parameters, and circulating BNP levels, the newly developed Long-TAVI risk score achieves high performance and provides the first prediction model for long-term mortality or HF admission. Long-TAVI represents a novel tool for personalized risk assessment in patients undergoing TAVI.Correlation at baseline A) and FUP B)Score performance A) and risk groups B)

Validation of quantitative aortic valve calcification assessment by photon-counting computed tomography from contrast-enhanced data sets using virtual non-contrast reconstructions

Abstract Background The spectral information of photon-counting computed tomography (PCCT) permits the reconstruction of energy-selective images. Purpose We evaluated two methods for the reconstruction of virtual non-contrast-enhanced images from contrast-enhanced CT angiographic data sets regarding their ability to quantify aortic valve calcification. Results were validated by comparison to non-enhanced computed tomography. Methods A total of 100 subjects with severe aortic valve stenosis who underwent ECG-synchronized cardiac photon-counting CT for diagnostic workup prior to transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) were included in the current analysis. A standard true non-contrast acquisition was performed for aortic valve calcium quantification in each subject. In addition, two virtual non-enhanced data sets were reconstructed from contrast-enhanced CT angiographic data: a calcium-specific image ("pure calcium scan", PCS) and a virtual non-contrast (VNC) scan by subtraction of iodine. The PCS algorithm separates calcium and iodine in spectral PCCT images, creating a non-calcium mask for denoised spectral input and preserving calcium contrast in final material decomposition. Iodine extraction is achieved by measurement of the iodine content and its differentiation from native soft tissue attenuation. The Agatston Score was assessed in each of the three image data sets using semi-automated software. Results The mean age of the subjects was 78 ± 7 years, 66% were male. Mean EUROSCORE II was 4 ± 4%, mean STS Score for morbidity and mortality was 16 ± 11%. In the true non-contrast scan used for validation, the mean Agatston Score was 3028 ± 1820. The mean Agatston Score obtained from the PCS data set was 3004 ± 2042 and did not differ significantly from true non—contrast image sets (p=0.716). In the VNC data sets, the mean Agatston score was 1726 ± 1288, significantly lower than in the true non-contrast and the PCS data sets (both &amp;lt;0.001). Both, PCS and VNC data showed a significant correlation with true non-contrast scans (correlation coefficient PCS: 0.978, VNC scan: 0.975, both p&amp;lt;0.001). Conclusion In conclusion, the current results show the possibility to reliably quantify the Agatston Score of larger cardiac calcifications in virtual non-contrast data sets – however, there is substantial influence of the algorithm that is used so that validation of new techniques is of key importance.

Disease-modifying treatments in transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

Abstract Background and Aims Transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy (ATTR-CM) is a progressive and life-threatening disease. With advancements in pharmacology, numerous novel medications are currently under investigation. However, the effects of these treatments on long-term outcomes remain elusive and inconclusive. Methods PubMed, MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Library were searched for literature inclusion until January 2024. Only phase 3, high-quality, randomized controlled trials related to ATTR-CM were considered for enrolment. Endpoints included all-cause mortality, six-minute walk distance, Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire–Overall Summary Score, and serum N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NTproBNP) levels. A random-effects model was applied for meta-analysis. Results Three landmark trials (ATTR-ACT, APOLLO-B, ATTRibute-CM) comprising 866 patients with ATTR-CM were pooled. 66.6% of the subjects were administered with medical treatment. Consistent improvements in all-cause mortality (P=0.001), 6-minute walk distance (P=0.045), Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire–Overall Summary Score (P&amp;lt;0.001), and serum NTproBNP level (P=0.002) were present by medical treatment. At 12 months, only NT-proBNP showed significant improvement in the pooled analysis of the APOLLO-B and ATTRibute-CM results. At 30 months, the pooled analysis of ATTR-ACT and ATTRibute-CM demonstrated significantly better all-cause mortality and KCCQ scores in patients received mediation. Conclusions Disease-modifying Treatments is associated with better survival, functional capacity, quality of life, and NTproBNP level in patients with ATTR-CM. Extended follow-up duration might be needed to demonstrate efficacies.

Albumin creatinine index added to the grace score increases its discriminative capacity for mortality at 12 years of follow-up in patients with acute coronary syndrome

Abstract introduction There is currently no information on the prognostic value of the GRACE score with the additional addition of the albumin-creatinine index (ABI) for the prediction of very long-term mortality in unselected populations of acute coronary syndromes (ACS). Objectives To evaluate the additive value of the albumin-creatinine index in spontaneous urine sample to the GRACE score for the prediction of 12-year mortality from all causes in an unselected cohort of patients with acute coronary syndrome. Material and methods A prospective cohort study was carried out, which included patients admitted to a Community Hospital with a diagnosis of ACS. These patients had their IAC measured in a single spontaneous urine sample based on the principle of immunoturbidimetry in the first 24 hours of admission. The end point of the analysis was all-cause mortality at follow-up. The GRACE 2.0 score was calculated for all patients in the study. The scores were compared according to the following metrics: their power to discriminate between events and non-events (ROC Areas), calibration or goodness of fit, evaluating the agreement between the proportion of events and non-events expected by both scores observed by Hosmer Lemeshow Test. The comparison between the areas under the ROC Curves was carried out using De Long's test with the MEDCALC program version 19.1.7. The net reclassification index and its 95% CI (GRACE score + IAC/GRACE score) were evaluated. Results 600 patients with ACS were analyzed, with an average age of 64 years. The GRACE score risk subgroups were divided by the established cut-off values: low risk (0 to 108), intermediate (109 to 139) and high risk (greater than 139). The area under the curve of the Grace score for mortality during follow-up was 0.79 (95% CI 0.69-0.89), while the area under the ROC curve of the GRACE + IAC score was 0.81 (95% CI 0.74-0.87). ). Comparing the two areas by the De Long test, the difference was statistically significant (P &amp;lt; 0.0001; 95% CI 0.07- 0.015). On the other hand, contingency tables were developed and the Hosmer Lemeshow Test (goodness of fit) was performed on the GRACE score and the GRACE + IAC score, observing agreement between expected events and non-events, throughout all subgroups of risk. In addition, reclassifications were made into deceased and survivors by applying the GRACE + IAC score on the GRACE score. The net reclassification rate was 28% (95% CI 21-35). The chi square of its Mc Nemar Test was 3.69 p &amp;lt; 0.0002. The absolute comprehensive discriminatory improvement was 0.01 (95% CI 0.009-0.02) and the corresponding relative value was 8.2% (95% CI 7.9-8.5). Conclusions In this unselected ACS cohort, the albumin-creatinine index added to the GRACE score significantly increases its ability to discriminate mortality from all causes in a 12-year follow-up.Comparison between ROC curvesHosmer Lemeshow test

Optimizing patient selection for cardiac resynchronization therapy in a multicenter study of Japanese patients: assessment of the MADIT-ICD benefit group

Abstract Background The MADIT-ICD benefit group, derived from ventricular tachycardia (VT)/ventricular fibrillation (VF) scores and non-arrhythmic mortality scores (Table 1), facilitates the appropriate selection of candidates for implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy. While the 2021 European Society of Cardiology Guidelines have discussed the advantages and considerations of adding a defibrillator in patients undergoing cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT), the optimal selection of CRT with or without a defibrillator remains unclear, particularly in Asian populations. This is especially relevant for primary prevention using ICD, which is characterized by fewer cases of ischemic etiology compared to Western countries. Purpose This study aimed to evaluate the utility of the MADIT-ICD benefit group in Japanese CRT patients and identify key indicators for determining the necessity of CRT with or without a defibrillator. Methods We conducted a retrospective, multicenter evaluation of 505 consecutive Japanese CRT patients enrolled between 2012 and 2020. Among these patients, 76% were male, with a mean age of 65 years and a mean body mass index of 22.5 kg/m2. Ischemic etiology was present in 25% of patients, with 20% undergoing secondary prevention. The study assessed the cumulative incidences of VT/VF and non-arrhythmic mortality based on the MADIT-ICD benefit group (lowest, intermediate, and highest). Predictors for each outcome were explored, and the MADIT-ICD benefit group was validated in the Japanese cohort. Results Of the 400 included patients, 60 (15%) were categorized into the lowest MADIT-ICD benefit group, 279 (70%) into the intermediate group, and 61 (15%) into the highest group. Over a median follow-up period of 34 months, VT/VF occurred in 4 (13%), 68 (24%), and 14 (23%) patients in the lowest, intermediate, and highest benefit groups, respectively (Gray’s test, P = 0.027, Figure 1A). Non-arrhythmic death occurred in 15 (25%), 91 (33%), and 9 (15%) patients in the lowest, intermediate, and highest benefit groups, respectively (Log-rank test, P = 0.025, Figure 1B). Multivariable analysis identified MADIT-ICD VT/VF score (hazard ratio [HR] 1.23; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12-1.35; P &amp;lt; 0.001) and left bundle branch block (LBBB) (HR 0.48; 95% CI 0.27-0.86; P = 0.014) as significant predictors for VT/VF, while MADIT-ICD non-arrhythmic mortality score (HR 1.16; 95% CI 1.07-1.27; P &amp;lt; 0.001), serum creatinine (Cr) (HR 1.28; 95% CI 1.13-1.45; P &amp;lt; 0.001), and mineral corticoid receptor antagonist (MRA) use (HR 1.84; 95% CI 1.21-2.79; P = 0.004) were significant predictors for non-arrhythmic death (Table 2). Conclusion The MADIT-ICD benefit group, in conjunction with left bundle branch block and renal function, may serve as valuable predictors for determining the necessity of cardioverter-defibrillator therapy in Japanese CRT patients.Table 1 and Figure 1

Transcatheter Aortic-Valve Replacement for Asymptomatic Severe Aortic Stenosis.

For patients with asymptomatic severe aortic stenosis and preserved left ventricular ejection fraction, current guidelines recommend routine clinical surveillance every 6 to 12 months. Data from randomized trials examining whether early intervention with transcatheter aortic-valve replacement (TAVR) will improve outcomes in these patients are lacking. At 75 centers in the United States and Canada, we randomly assigned, in a 1:1 ratio, patients with asymptomatic severe aortic stenosis to undergo early TAVR with transfemoral placement of a balloon-expandable valve or clinical surveillance. The primary end point was a composite of death, stroke, or unplanned hospitalization for cardiovascular causes. Superiority testing was performed in the intention-to-treat population. A total of 901 patients underwent randomization; 455 patients were assigned to TAVR and 446 to clinical surveillance. The mean age of the patients was 75.8 years, the mean Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score was 1.8% (on a scale from 0 to 100%, with higher scores indicating a greater risk of death within 30 days after surgery), and 83.6% of patients were at low surgical risk. A primary end-point event occurred in 122 patients (26.8%) in the TAVR group and in 202 patients (45.3%) in the clinical surveillance group (hazard ratio, 0.50; 95% confidence interval, 0.40 to 0.63; P<0.001). Death occurred in 8.4% of the patients assigned to TAVR and in 9.2% of the patients assigned to clinical surveillance, stroke occurred in 4.2% and 6.7%, respectively, and unplanned hospitalization for cardiovascular causes occurred in 20.9% and 41.7%. During a median follow-up of 3.8 years, 87.0% of patients in the clinical surveillance group underwent aortic-valve replacement. There were no apparent differences in procedure-related adverse events between patients in the TAVR group and those in the clinical surveillance group who underwent aortic-valve replacement. Among patients with asymptomatic severe aortic stenosis, a strategy of early TAVR was superior to clinical surveillance in reducing the incidence of death, stroke, or unplanned hospitalization for cardiovascular causes. (Funded by Edwards Lifesciences; EARLY TAVR ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03042104.).

Artificial intelligence assessment of heart failure and mortality after acute stroke

Abstract Background/Introduction The adverse cardiovascular outcomes following a stroke have shown significant associations with post-stroke mortality. However, studies focusing on predicting heart failure and its impact on long-term mortality are scarce. Purpose To address this gap, we employed an commercially approved artificial intelligence/machine learning enabled software as a medical device (AiTiALVSD version 1.00.00) which uses only 12 lead electrocardiogram data, resulting probability score for predicting left ventricular systolic dysfunction. We derived the AiTiALVSD probability score from initial ECGs at stroke admission, and assess its implications for prediction of heart failure and long-term mortality. Methods We collected data from 335 ischemic stroke patients admitted to a cardiovascular center during acute periods between 2013 and 2019. The AiTiALVSD score was employed to predict heart failure with reduced ejection fraction and heart failure with mild reduced ejection fraction, analyzed through logistic regression. Subsequently, we used the Cox Hazard proportional model, incorporating the AiTiALVSD score and clinical factors, to predict long-term mortality. Results The model incorporating the AiTiALVSD score with clinical variables demonstrated a higher AUC for predicting heart failure (0.905 [95% CI, 0.827-0.927] vs. 0.828 [95% CI, 0.749-0.907], p&amp;lt;0.004) than clinical variables alone. Moreover, for long-term mortality prediction, this model outperformed the conventional mortality score (AUC, 0.884 [95% CI, 0.836-0.933] vs. 0.755 [95% CI, 0.690-0.820], p&amp;lt;0.001). Conclusion Multivariable models which combine the AiTiALVSD score with clinical factors, effectively predicts heart failure and long-term mortality. This model could enhance therapeutic strategy tailoring by providing acute phase prognostic predictions for individual stroke patients.Prediction performance for heart failurePrediction performance for mortality

Optimizing elective high-risk PCI with ECMO support: the value of completely percutaneous use of VA-ECMO

Abstract Background Veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) is a suitable manner to prevent hemodynamic deterioration during high-risk percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). VA-ECMO is mainly surgically deployed under general anaesthesia. New developments now facilitate completely percutaneous insertion of VA-ECMO with only local anaesthesia, reducing operating team size and hospital costs. Purpose The aim of this study is to provide data on the outcomes of completely percutaneous use of VA-ECMO during high-risk PCI with local anaesthesia. Methods A retrospective single-centre registry was performed including all patients undergoing ECMO-assisted high-risk PCI, who were rejected for coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) as primary treatment option. Primary endpoint was the incidence of major adverse cardiac events (MACE), assessed during hospital admission and after discharge up to 90 days. Results Between January 2020 and February 2024, 34 patients undergoing ECMO-assisted high-risk PCI were included. The mean age of the population is 71.9 (± 8.4) and 27 (79.4%) patients are male. The mean left ventricular ejection fraction is 28.5 (± 11.1) percent and complexity indices were high, including STS mortality score: 4.1 (± 2.8), SYNTAX score I: 31.7 (± 9.4), SYNTAX score II: (PCI) 54.8 (± 10.8). Femoral artery was used for cannulation in 30 (88.2%) patients, of which one patient required an additional femoral backflow cannula due to prolonged ECMO support. Local anaesthesia in combination with preprocedural oral benzodiazepine was the preferred choice of anaesthesia (85.3%). Closure was predominantly performed with a percutaneous closure device (97.1%). Successful revascularization and procedural success were achieved in all patients. In-hospital MACE occurred in 2 (6.1%) patients. MACE occurred within 90 days in 5 (20.8%) patients after discharge. Conclusion High-risk PCI with completely percutaneous use of VA-ECMO with local anaesthesia is a novel concept, providing a suitable alternative to the standard surgical use of VA-ECMO with general anaesthesia.

Preoperative mortality risk evaluation in abdominal surgical emergencies: development and internal validation of the NDAR score from a national multicenter audit in Senegal

IntroductionAbdominal surgical emergencies have a high mortality rate. Effective management primarily relies on the early identification of patients at high risk of postoperative complications. The objective of our study was to determine the prognostic factors associated with poor outcomes from abdominal surgical emergencies in Senegal and to establish a predictive score for mortality for preoperative risk evaluation (NDAR (New Death Assessment Risk) score).MethodologyThis was a retrospective national cross-sectional study conducted over one year in 14 regions of Senegal. Adult patients (aged > 15 years) who presented with a traumatic or non-traumatic abdominal surgical emergency were included. The studied variables included clinical and paraclinical data. The variable of interest was death within 30 days of the surgery. Logistic regression was used to identify the factors independently associated with mortality. Risk factors identified after logistic regression analysis were weighted using odds ratio (OR) values rounded to the nearest whole number. The predictive capacity of the score was evaluated by analyzing the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve based on the area under the curve (AUC).ResultsA total of 1114 patient records were included, with a mortality rate of 4.4%. Diagnoses were observed in patients included appendicitis in 39.8% of cases (n = 444), followed by peritonitis in 22.3% (n = 249), intestinal obstruction in 18.5% (n = 205), strangulated hernias in 10.5% (n = 117), and abdominal trauma in 6.1%. Logistic regression, established the following scores: age > 40 years (score 2), ASA status grade 2 or higher (score 1), presence of a positive QSIRS score (score 2), diagnosis of peritonitis (score 2), diagnosis of intestinal obstruction (score 1), and the presence of intestinal necrosis (score 3). The score is positive if the total is strictly greater than 5, indicating a 17.7% risk of mortality. This score had a high predictive capacity with an AUC of 0.7397.ConclusionThis study enabled the establishment of a score that allows for the early identification of at-risk patients, even in constrained resource settings, facilitating appropriate perioperative management and timely surgical intervention to reduce the risk of complications. This approach, focused on early recognition of high-risk patients, is crucial for improving clinical outcomes in abdominal surgical emergencies.